Rising Sun, Shooting Star (Chez vs Canoerebel)

[ChezDaJez]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

The combat report tells you about all units in vincinity.
The combat replay tells you about single aircraft engaging single aircraft by the combat animations, not by the numbers of planes listed beneath the aircraft symbols.

Unless you can see in the combat replay that every single fighter of the units listed, so 23 or more Buffalo battles, 34 or more H81-A3 battles, had A2A action in
every single combat replay you could draw entirely different conclusions on how many fighters did battle. Is that what you saw?

I know the difference here. I've played the game long enough to know. I did most of the research for Japanese aircraft during AE's development along with a considerable amount of beta testing of the air combat routines.

It is impossible to determine whether all fighters actually engaged in combat from the replay as even counting the number of fights is misleading as some fighters attack more than once during a combat resolution phase. The 75A-7 Hawks and CW-21B Demons did not engage and were probably on LRCAP. They did show up on the CR and the replay but they did not fire. All other fighter types did participate in combat.

And again, I have never seen this before in my games with Brad, only with Dan. I do not have a problem with this. Indeed I want to be able to do this as I have never understood the game limitation of not being able to sweep an enemy CVTF. You can sweep a land base, why not a sea base?

The best rationale I can come up with is that this was caused by Dan's use of multiple altitudes for his fighters, intentionally or unintentionally. Each of his fighter types were assigned a different altitude from 10K to 25K feet. Could this do it? Or did he simply set them to sweep without a target? Dan said they were set to escort. If set to escort, fighters are supposed to automatically take a position a few thousand feet above the bombers. In this case, they didn't. I generally set my fighters to the same altitude as the bombers so as to reduce the chances of the escorts getting lost. I assume a different altitude setting for fighters may increase the chances of them becoming separated from the bombers. If separated, the fighters then have two choices: return to base or continue onto the target. His obviously continued onto the target. But they also arrived in the same combat resolution as the Swordfish so what actually happened?

My main point here is I want to understand how this occurred. Can a player deliberately cause this to happen and if so, how?

Chez

[ChezDaJez]

Bullwinkle, hopefully, this will upload ok.

This is a screenshot of my production screen showing oil and resources. The date is 23 Feb 1942.

Chez

[LoBaron]

I did not doubt your expertise. I just wanted to make sure we are talking about the same thing.

After the last patch Iain posted a thread in the general discussion, providing not much information but asking if anybody
noticed changes to the air combat model.
I believe I noticed changes in some areas, this might be one of them.

Influence is complex and easy at the same time I think:
One part still is coordination and how you can prevent or enforce it. Both is valuable depending on the situation.
Another part is detection range, there was a bug in ground based radar and it was resolved in one of the recent patches. How long it has been there I cannot say, but
such a bug removed could change a lot.

Canorebel talks much about operational stuff as you know from reading his AARs, but not so much about actual combat.
Hes a very experinced player, so it could well be that he found something. What it is I don´t know but if he found something I´d like
to find out too. [;)]

[ChezDaJez]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

I did not doubt your expertise. I just wanted to make sure we are talking about the same thing.

After the last patch Iain posted a thread in the general discussion, providing not much information but asking if anybody
noticed changes to the air combat model.
I believe I noticed changes in some areas, this might be one of them.

Influence is complex and easy at the same time I think:
One part still is coordination and how you can prevent or enforce it. Both is valuable depending on the situation.
Another part is detection range, there was a bug in ground based radar and it was resolved in one of the recent patches. How long it has been there I cannot say, but
such a bug removed could change a lot.

Canorebel talks much about operational stuff as you know from reading his AARs, but not so much about actual combat.
Hes a very experinced player, so it could well be that he found something. What it is I don´t know but if he found something I´d like
to find out too. [;)]

I haven't read any of Dan's AARs since we started the game. I didn't want to avail myself of any of his previous strategies.

He is a cunning player and I'm still trying to figure out what I'm going to do about Palembang where he only has 45 units!!!

Given his resourcefulness, he may very well have found something in the air combat routines that can be exploited. As I said, I want to know how to do it too. I liken it to Thach's invention of the Thach weave. The US found a way to level the playing field through its use and I want to find a way to level it too or better yet, tip it my way!

It's finally a beautiful spring day here and I have to go to work. Is there no justice in this world?

Chez

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

Bullwinkle, hopefully, this will upload ok.

This is a screenshot of my production screen showing oil and resources. The date is 23 Feb 1942.

Chez

Thanks.

[LoBaron]

Rob and Mike had one large air battle over Burma in our PBEM where something similar happened about 1 month ago.
(Large strike by Mike roughly handled by Robs fighter defense in an a bit weird fashion)

Since noone started a discussion about it and I did not take part in this I did not bother to look in deep what could have caused it.
Currently the possibilities considered come down to a combination of sweep, LRCAP, early detection and/or CAP range/altitude settings, but did not check on Robs settings over the Mandalay area
back then.

I filed that incident as "to check" in case I run into a similar situation on the US but since I am a bit slow to move and lack the logistic experience on the US side this is still
a bit in the future. I find such combats always easier to analyse when I at least plotted part of the action.

What I´m sure already works different - as to before the radar bug removal - is that CAP reacts to threats on any hex within the range set, with the usual other dice rolls involved,
in case a strike is detected early.
This leads to quite interesting results that can be influenced but only so much.
OTOH this was probably intended beforehand already, and is only news to me because it did not work until the lates official patch.

Nice weekend (at least after work, I hope) [;)]

[ChezDaJez]

What I´m sure already works different - as to before the radar bug removal - is that CAP reacts to threats on any hex within the range set, with the usual other dice rolls involved, in case a strike is detected early.

With the radar fixed, I can well understand that CAP would react differently and be able to intercept raids within range of the radar.

But I'm not sure how that can be applied in my case as my ships did not have radar. If they did, that should have benefitted the Japanese, not the allies.

I'm not sure what the makeup of the base forces in Java are but I assume that they are mostly Dutch who do not have radar. It's possible that there are some Brit forces there that might have radar though I would consider it unlikely at this stage of the war. Also the range from the nearest Dutch base of Kalidjati to my TF was 4 hexes or 160 miles. The range from most other bases was at least 5 hexes or 200 miles. I believe that would be out of range of any land based allied radar this early in the war.

Chez

[FatR]

I advise to bomb Singapore from 25k (above the ceiling of British AA guns) just enough to damage the airfield and keep forts from rebuilding.

Take note, that your delay is more serious that you think, if only because Dutch forces usually take a long time to clean up, and Java won't fold shortly after landing, as IRL.

[ChezDaJez]

ORIGINAL: FatR

I advise to bomb Singapore from 25k (above the ceiling of British AA guns) just enough to damage the airfield and keep forts from rebuilding.

Take note, that your delay is more serious that you think, if only because Dutch forces usually take a long time to clean up, and Java won't fold shortly after landing, as IRL.

I've been bombing from 17K feet which has reduced my flak losses to manageable levels. At 20K+, I don't seem to hit anything.

Dan has removed most of his Dutch forces from Java and put them in Palembang so Java should be reasonably quick, at least the ports that I want, Batavia and Soerabaja. The plan is to control the industry and the oil in Java and let the Dutch wither on Java if cleanup becomes too time consuming.

Chez

[ChezDaJez]

Time for another update.

21 Feb-
My Zeros swept Palembang shooting down several P-40s for one loss. Unfortunately, Dan moved approx 75 fighters into Singapore. My Oscars became separated from my bombers and continued onto Singapore. I lost one, Dan none. Then 32 Nells and 23 Bettys arrived over target unescorted. 28 were shot down.

My troops are bombarding Changsha but he is just too strong there to try to attack. I plan to withdraw the majority of them to the SW and see if there are easier pickings there. This will mean a river assault though so the odds must be favorable.

My troops continue to recover disruption at Clark. It's amazing how long he is able to hold out there. In pure AV, I hold a 2.5:1 advantage plus he is nearly out of supply and the forts are gone. Yet the best I can manage is a paltry 1:2 attack.

We continue to bombard Singapore. Why doesn't artillery target airfields and ports?

22 Feb-

A second day of sweeping Palembang results in an estimated 6 enemy fighters shot down for one loss.

Launched another deliberate attack against Clark. Same result. Inital IJ AV 2498, Allied 1013. Final AV IJ 869, Allied 2191. Odds 1:2. IJ casualties 2990, allied 2255.

23 Feb-

We recapture Cagayan. Dan had moved all his troops into the mountains.

No other news to report.

24 Feb-

The SS Sargo attempted to penetrate BB Ise's screen near Salajar but failed. No damaged sustained by either side.

We resume bombing Singapore after making up the bomber losses of 2 days ago. The pools are now empty and the pilots green.

Another deliberate attack against Clark... same result. This time I suffer 3442 casualties to 680. Disruption is high. Will rest one turn and see what it looks like.

I loaded an inf division at Canton a few days ago. They are heading for Mersing and should arrive in two days.

Also in the works is a landing at Denspassar south of Java. There is a level 3 airfield there that will be perfect for launching sweeps and bombing raids against his air forces that caused the loss of the Shoho. Ryujo and Zuiho will take station south of Denspassar and Hosho and Taiho will patrol near Makassar in case any allied naval vessels try to interfere.

Forces are also gathering near Noumea for a move on Noumea. KB will provide air cover as I don't know where his carriers are. The amphib TF will be heavily escorted with BBs as we are sailing into unknown waters. According to recon, Suva is lightly defended so should fall quickly... I hope. Landings are anticipated around the 1st of the month.

25 Feb-

Not much to report. Clean up operations continue in SE China as I play "whack-a-mole" with small Chinese units. Most of my forces have withdrawn from Changsha leaving just 2 divs and some support troops in the hex. Dan has noticed the withdrawal and now has started bombarding my troops there. For some reason the troops that withdrew headed east instead of SW. Now they will have to march through forest to get to their destination. That means that any hope of finding a soft spot east of Changsha before Dan could react is gone.

26 Feb-

Not a good day for the Japanese empire. The Japanese admiral had once again become complacent and failed to safeguard his convoys.

2 Allied CLs and 4 DDs arrived at night at Mersing and found 30+ lightly guarded AKs and APs. What followed was pure slaughter. At least 20 of the merchants were sunk as were all the escorts. Fortunately, my inf division from Canton had just unloaded and most of the fast APs escaped with relatively minor damage.

Worse was to come. The landings at Denspassar went off without a hitch. But Zuiho and Ryujo had no inkling that allied carriers were lurking about 12 hexes south of Denspassar. I estimate at least 4 US and 2 Brit carriers were present.

They launched a massive morning raid of 86 Dauntlesses with an escort of 17 fighters at the extreme range of 280 miles. 39 Zeros on escort tore into the raid shooting down 8 fighters and about 15 bombers for the loss of one Zero. Approximately 20 bombers were damaged.

But the allied raid was simply to big to stop. Zuiho took a 1000lb bomb and Ryujo 3 big bombs. Ryujo was left burning heavily and with heavy damage. BB Fuso took 12 bombs, several of them 1000lbers. BB Ise took 5 bombs. CA Myoko took 2 penetrating 1000lb bombs.

A second morning raid of 35 Dauntlesses escorted by 13 Wildcats encounter a reduced CAP of 15 Zeros. 2 Dauntlesses and 2 Wildcats were shot down for the loss of one Zero. Zuiho was targeted several times but escaped without further damage as did Ryujo. BB Fuso took 2 more bomb hits and BB ISe 3 bombs. DD Oyashio took a 500lb bomb and suffered a catastrophic magazine explosion and disappeared.

A third morning raid saw 7 Wildcats escorting 11 Swordfish. The Cap of 3 Zeros was ineffective. One Swordfish was shot down by BB Ise but the remainder put a bomb each on CVL Zuiho and BB Ise. BB Fuso took 2 more bombs for a total of 16 bombs. Fortunately, none have penetrated her armor.

A fourth morning attack against this TF appeared in the skies. 17 unescorted Dauntlesses encountered a CAP of 1 lone Zero which promptly ran out of ammo. No Dauntlesses were lost. Ryujo and Zuiho both took 500lb bombs each and BB Fuso 2 more. Ryujo finally sank.

Ryujo's CAP recovered aboard Zuiho which apparently was still capable of flight ops. The fleet admiral began to hope that Zuiho could get off an afternoon strike and hopefully damage or sink some allied ships with her 24 Kates. But it was not to be. Zuiho is overloaded and can only launch CAP.

The first allied raid of the afternoon was another large one. 62 Dauantlesses and 17 Albacores escorted by 29 fighters blew through the CAP of 10 Zeros. 2 allied fighters were shot with 3 Dauntlesses damaged. One Zero was lost. Zuiho took 2 bombs, BB Fuso took 6 more bombs and BB ISe 5. CA Myoko took 5 more bombs, all penetrating. She sank. CL Nagara also took a bomb. Zuiho sank and her airborne fighters along with Ryujo's survivors diverted to Makassar.

I launched a shock attack against Clark and achieve nearly 1:1 odds but losses and disruption is again heavy. The good news is that the allied troops causualties are mostly destroyed squads where mine are mostly dirsrupted one. He suffered significantly more destroyed troops than I.

27 Feb-

I have withdrew my forces from the Denspassar area. BB Fuso which took over 20 bobbs is capable of 15 knots and is moving at full speed to Kendari. Her system damage is 52 with eng damage of 29. Fires are out and she has only 12 flot damage. BB Ise has only 20 sys damage and no fires but has 12 eng and 12 flood.

Denspassar is captured. I left AMC Nosiro Maru there to unload some supplies but Dan sent 3 PT boats to harass her. She took a torpedo but appeared ok. Then 8 Blenheims found her and one planted a 250lb bomb on her deck. She is now onfire with heavy damage. Most of the supply she was to offload burned so I will have to arrange a fast transport force from Kendari to make up the difference.

So once again Dan has scored a great success. Losing the transports was bad enough but to lose both CVLs was a disaster as now all 3 CVLs are on the bottom and all I have left in the entire SRA is 2 CVEs. I may have to divide KB and send at least 2 carriers to the SRA. Not sure what I will do in that regard.

In the meantime, KB is now 3 hexes SW of Suva and my invasion forces will hit the beach next turn. Hopefully there will be no more surprises.

Chez

[obvert]

Seems like dividing is what is getting you into trouble. Why not keep them together now that;

A. You know where his CVs are located

B. You can only hope to beat his CVs with the full KB

A concentration of force, wherever you are in 42 as Japan, seems the most likely path to positive results and expansion.

[ny59giants]

It is tempting to divide Mini-KB into smaller TFs while operating in the SRA, but I have seen what can happen to them when those small flight decks, 30 planes or smaller, run into a numbers game played by the Allies. Most of the Allied planes are obsolete, but they can manage to throw in great numbers from time to time. IMO, it is important to move two Air HQs from Takao to the eastern DEI to provide much needed protection by Nell/Betty. One at Koepang along with Makassar closes off the western area while the capture of Port Moresby or Milne Bay closes off the eastern side.

OT: Chez - Have you been able to use a break in the action up to this point in the game to be able to resize your non-restricted Zero, Val, and Kates?? I did that in my game even for those Zero units scheduled to be withdrawn by 1 April 42 and it helps.

[ChezDaJez]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

It is tempting to divide Mini-KB into smaller TFs while operating in the SRA, but I have seen what can happen to them when those small flight decks, 30 planes or smaller, run into a numbers game played by the Allies. Most of the Allied planes are obsolete, but they can manage to throw in great numbers from time to time. IMO, it is important to move two Air HQs from Takao to the eastern DEI to provide much needed protection by Nell/Betty. One at Koepang along with Makassar closes off the western area while the capture of Port Moresby or Milne Bay closes off the eastern side.

OT: Chez - Have you been able to use a break in the action up to this point in the game to be able to resize your non-restricted Zero, Val, and Kates?? I did that in my game even for those Zero units scheduled to be withdrawn by 1 April 42 and it helps.

The allies can definitely concentrate enough bombers to ruin your whole day in the DEI. That's what led to the loss of the Shoho. The two most dangerous land-based bombers the allies have IMO is the Banshee and the Swordfish. The Dutch air forces are obsolete but can still deliver on occasion. Combined, they can hurt if you aren't careful... and I wasn't.

On this occasion, if mini-KB had been kept whole, I would have lost the lot in one action. I estimate he had 4 fleet carriers and 2 Brit carriers for the attack on Ryujo and Zuiho and I seriously doubt that even KB would have come away without major damage. Of course, he would hhave had some in return but Japan can not afford to lose any flight deck at any time.

Most land-based units have been resized but many of the units have been divided to cover more areas. Once he starts getting better fighters, I will have to recombine the units to reduce losses.

I have air HQs now at Koepang, Ambon and Denspassar. Makassar does not have any air units.

Chez

[SqzMyLemon]

Hi Chez,

With your recent setbacks are you still planning your NZ operation? I think now is not the time to think of splitting off CV's from KB for operations in the DEI as you hinted at in a recent post. That could just lead to them being destroyed piecemeal. It's time to get your airbases in order and your LBA massed to apply more pressure and fully support your operations in the DEI. Maybe a case of trying to achieve too much with inadequate force allocation is leading to these setbacks. I'm not a great player, but I've learned that bringing the kitchen sink and simply forcing your will on your opponent can be the best strategy at times.

[ChezDaJez]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Hi Chez,

With your recent setbacks are you still planning your NZ operation? I think now is not the time to think of splitting off CV's from KB for operations in the DEI as you hinted at in a recent post. That could just lead to them being destroyed piecemeal. It's time to get your airbases in order and your LBA massed to apply more pressure and fully support your operations in the DEI. Maybe a case of trying to achieve too much with inadequate force allocation is leading to these setbacks. I'm not a great player, but I've learned that bringing the kitchen sink and simply forcing your will on your opponent can be the best strategy at times.

I am still considering a NZ operation but every passing day makes it less likely. I need divisions to accomplish it though and they are all tied up at Clark and Sigapore. I have already shelved the plans for invading SE Australia though planning continues for Perth, Darwin and the Cooktown area.

KB will stay in the Pacific for the moment as I am about to land in Fiji and I cannot discount the idea that he has left a carrier in the Pacific. Plus he may have some surface raiders still about in SoPac and KB will be needed to ward them off. I cannot risk any more carriers without a substantial possibility of a significant victory. That means Hosho and Taiho will not venture beyond range of land-based air in the DEI and KB will not go running off onto its own.

In addition, I'm thinking that Dan may send his carriers back to the Pacific by transitting south of Australia. I have set up a sub scouting line in case that happens so I will not get surprised again. And I want to know where they are going as an opportunity may eventually present itself to reverse the tables.

Chez

[ChezDaJez]

Another update that should have come earlier!

28 Feb

My troops land on Suva as planned and without interfernce. Landing casualties were relatively light for once and I am ashore in good order. A desultory allied artillery bombardment caused few casualties. Next turn should see the port fall into my hands.

His carriers have disappeared from the face of the earth it seems so I will assume that they may be coming round the south of Australia to contest mt activities in SoPac.

Am conitinuing fighter sweeps and bombing raids against Singapore. I have more troops coming but it will take some time to get them in theater as they have to move overland to reach a port from Kwangtung. I have a division earmarked each for Clark and and Singapore. That will bring me down to close to 10000AV in Kwangtung. That is my limit. The game allows down to 8000 but I never go that far.

My bombing raids continue on Clark but it seems as though only the USAAFE and Asiatic Fleet HQs get bombed. He is starting to have troops destroyed through bombing now so I think his supply situation is desparate... I hope.

Dan sent several small air raids against the airfield at Denspassar. A coordination penalty must have kicked in as all of the raids were small.

His first raid 12 P-40s and 3 139WH-3s met 15 Zeros. All the bombers were shot down along with 4 P-40s. No Zeros were lost. Then the second with 5 Hurricane IIb escorting 10 B-17s had better success against my fighters. I lost 1 Zero to 2 Hurris. 2 B-17s were damaged. His 3rd raid of 8 A-24 Banshees arrived without fighter escort. 6 Zeros shot down 2 Banshees and damaged another. The 4th raid of 6 H81-A3 and 8 A-24 Banshees met a single Zero. One Banshee was damaged but no aircraft lost on either side.

1 March 1942

Troops continue to land in good order at Suva. Dan had not reinforced the island at all which leads me to be that he must be husbanding his forces for an early counter blow somewhere.

Dan has stacked a few subs around Kwajalien and Roi-Namur. I have several ASW TFs hunting them down but with my weak ASW I hope just to keep their heads down. SS Thresher is one of the boats and she took a DC hit though damage is probably light.

Dan revisited Denspassar. His first raid of 139WH-3s had a heavy escort of 6 H81-A3s, 3 Hurricane IIbs, and 23 P-40s. 11 Zeros engaged and shot down 5 P-40s and damaged one bomber. No damage to the airfield noted.

5 Blenheim IVs attempted to attack a small supply TF near Salajar. 8 surviving Ryujo Zeros operating from Makassar took their vengeance and splashed every one of them for no losses.

I launched another deliberate attack against Clark after 2 days of rest. 76707 Japanese troops (AV 2162) engaged 31497 Alied troops (AV 639) and obtained 1:1 odds. Forts are no at zero. For once the allies lost more troops than did the Japanese. Allies had 134 combat squads destroyed to my 33. Total casualties were 3068 (j) to 3199 (A).

The attack on Suva went well with 3:1 odds but level 3 forts kept the place in alllied hands. Fortunately my engineers reduced the forst to zero. Japanese had 372 casualties to the allies 701.

I continue to bomb and bombard Singapore with seemingly little effect.

2 March 1942

I-15 encountered a small xAKL and blasted her with gunfire. The sub submerged due to low gun ammo so the sinking is not confirmed.

Finally a good air raid on Singapore... 66 Netties obtained 71 runway, 15 airbase and 4 air supply hits. The 85 Sallys obtained 36 runway, 4 airbase and 3 air supply hits. That should keep him from building up the forts and hopefully reduce supply though I am sure Singapore has a bunch of supply present.

Java's bombers don't seem to learn. 4 more Blenheim IVs attempted to attack another TF near Salajar. 2 Zeros on CAP shot one down and damaged another. No damaged incurred.

Another deliberate assault on Clark yielded nearly the same result as the turn before though he lost 78 combat squads to my 7. I don't know what Dan has done to make his defense here so masterful but it sure is taking a long time to capture this place.

Suva falls with 2:1 odds. Dan took some very heavy casualties so I will pursue him to the base west of Suva (forgot its name).

3 March 1942

Bad day in the air for the empire. Once again Dan brings his surface forces to play and uses his fighters to great effect. This time he brought a naval bombardment force consisting of CA Exeter, CLs Dauntless, Adelaide and De Ruyter with 6 DDs to Singapore. The resulting night bombardment was poor by anyone's standard. Only 1 non-combat squad disabled. The day bombardment was only slightly better.

As I sat and watched the naval bombardment replay I wondered how far his ships would get before my bombers found them. When the day search showed them still at Singapore, I was elated.

Then my first sweep of 13 Zeros went to Singapore. 15 H81-A3s, 24 Buffalos, 13 Hurricae IIa, 39 Hurricane IIb, 24 P-39D Aircobras and 51 P-40Es were waiting. That's 166 fighters!!! I didn't know he had that many in theater! The CR reported 3 Zeros lost for 1 Buffalo and 1 P-40E.

Then came my bombers to attack the fleet. 65 Netties arrived unescorted and were massacred. 153 fighters claimed 15 Nells and 3 Bettys destroyed for no allied losses. Fortunately my Sally bombers had better sense and waited for the escorts. 85 Sallys and 100 Oscars fought their way through 132 fighters. 11 Sallys and 9 Oscars were claimed shot down for 1 Buffalo, 1 Hurricane IIa, 1 P-39D and 4 P-40Es.

Finally another sweep of 25 Zeros arrived over Singapore and engaged 94 allied fighters. This time, the results were more in my favor. Zero pilots claimed 1 H81-A3, 1 Buffalo, 1 Hurricane IIa, 1 P-39 and 3 P-40Es shot down for the loss of 3 Zeros.

As near as I can tell, total losses in the air over Singapore was 92 Japanese bombers and fighters and 33 allied fighters. When you take out the bombers and compare just fighters, the results were nearly 1:1., 36 Japanese fighters lost for 33 allied fighters. Japan lost 71 pikots killed however.

3 more Blenheims showed up near Makassar to attack a supply TF and were met by 7 Zeros. All bombers were shot down for no loss.

Japanese troops captured Prome in Burma.

4 March 1942

SS O21 found CVE Taiyo transitting between Kendari and Ternate and put 3 torpedoes into her. I am really survived she survived this attack with only 54 flot damage and 20 fires. If she can get the fires out and make it to Kendari she might survive.

I sent 25 Zeros sweeping over Soerabaja. They claimed 1 Hurricane IIb out 8 engaged shot down for the loss of 2 Zeros.

The last time Dan sent fighters into Singapore, he pulled them out the next turn. To make sure I directed a large fighter sweep before sending any bombers back there. Unfortunately, my fighters went in fragment. The 1st sweep had 12 Zeros encountering 112 fighters. 3 Zeros went down while claining 2 enemy shot down. The 24 Oscars went in and met 99 allied fighters. 5 Oscars went down for 2 enemy. Then 5 Zeros showed up and tore into 72 enemy fighters and claimed 3 for the loss of 1.

Unfortunately I did forget to stand down two Sally units. 32 bombers from the first unit went to Singapore with an escort of 31 Oscars. 60 enemy fighters engaged and shot down 1 Sally and 3 Oscars. 3 enemy fighters were claimed. The second unit of 17 Sallys went in without escort. 5 Sallys were shot down.

A last sweep of 23 Oscars then went in and engaged 39 fighters. 5 Oscars were lost for 5 enemy shot down.

The only positive note for the day was the I-122 finding a nice sized Ak ,the Empire Curlew near Koggala and sank her with 2 torpedoes.

Chinses forces recaptured a non-base at Kweiteh. Troops are on their way to kick them out.

5 March 1942

Dan still has his fighters and his cruiser force at Singapore so I try a night bombing raid. They go in fragmented. 26 Netties went in first followed by 8 Sallys. No damage is inflicted. So much for that idea.

I try another deliberate attack at Clark. Another 1:1 result. 1729 Japanese casualties as opposed to 1730 allied. The good news is that 90% of his casualties are destroyed whereas only 10% of mine are.

6 March 1942

SS Thresher continues to be harassed near Kwajalien but sustains no damage. SS Trout in the same area takes a hit however.

SS Sargo attempts to penetrate the screen of a BB force near Makassar but fails.

As Dan has nearly his entire Far East fighter force at Singapore, I decided to raid the port of Soerabaja. SS Sailfisk takes 2 bombs and sinks.

I have about a 3:1 AV advantage at Singapore but his fort level is unknown. I think it is worthwhile to attempt a shock attack there in the hopes of capturing Singapore before he can evacuate his fighters. The plan doesn't work. The shock attack achieves 1:2 odds vs level 3 forts. No forts are brought down and I sustain 11131 casualties, roughly 1/3 of those are destroyed. Dan loses 5687 casualties but only about 20% of his are destroyed. Still the battle yields good intel on the state of his defenses.

Tokyo Rose announces the fall of Clark airbase!!! A deliberate attack yielded 3:1 odds with only 496 casualties. The allies lose 9807 troops, the vast majority of which are destroyed. All allied units retreat to Bataan. My troops will rest and recover disruption before actively pursuing. I will send a smallish combat team in with artillery to test the defenses while the remainder rest.

7 March 1942

I-154 spotted 2 destroyers, the John D. Edwards and Le Triompant pulling into Sydney. No other ships were spotted but I'm curious as to why 2 DDs are headed there. I am going to go with the assumption that the US carriers are in port there. I am sending in to Glen equipped subs to recon the port and I have 5 subs with midgets onboard enroute also. If the carries are inport there, the midgets will launch an attack. With any luck, one of them will get through. Even if they don't, it put Dan on notice that no port is safe.

SS KX got through some escorts and found a big, fat AP headed for Ternate from Kendari and put a torpedo into her. She's headed back to Kendari for temporary repairs.

Japanese troops captured undefended Toungoo in Burma.

8 March 1942

Allied fighters swept Mersing in preparation for bombing raids against the airfield. 11 P-40Es found 26 Zeros and 46 Oscars waiting for them. 2 P-40s went down for the loss of 1 Oscar.

6 Hurricane IIb's then tried to sweep against 72 Japanese fighters. No losses on either side.

The main event was next when 17 B-17s escorted by 36 fighters encountered 54 Japanese fighters. 3 friendly fighters were shot down but 8 enemy fighters also went down. Damage to the airfield was minimal.

An small invasion force is gathering to take Lord Howe Island. This will give me a staging point for keeping tabs on SE Australian waters in case his carriers are using Sydney.

The current stragetic plan is to take Bataan as soon as possible then route most of those troops to Singapore while the remainder begin taking Borneo. Once Singapore falls, java will be next. Palembang will be saved for last.

Chez

[ChezDaJez]

9 March 42

Fairly quiet turn. SS Seadragon attempted to penetrate the screen of a cargo TF near Kuantan and received 3 hits for its trouble.

2 IJN BBs bombarded Lautem for little gain. One disabled squad and a few port/airfield hits were all that was achieved.

My bombers continue to pound Bataan while my troops rest at Clark. They will be moving to Bataan in a few days to finalize the capture of the Philippines.

A 3:1 deliberate attack against the NZ defenders at Nadi saw the forts drop to level 1. Casualties were light on both sides.

10 March

SS Sturgeon attacked a cargo TF near Mersing but failed to penetrate and recieved 4 ASW hits. ANother sub, SS Tambor, tried to whittle down an ASW TF near Kwajalein. She missed but escaped unharmed.

Nadi falls with a 5:1 deliberate attack. All defenders surrendered so Fiji is now totally under the control of the Empire. Clean up of the surrounding islands will commence shortly.

A TF is on its way to take Bakeer Island. This area appears totally unreinforced and in many places, undefended.

Clean up of Chinese forces behind Japanese lines continues unabated. Dan is using Chinese HQ units to disrupt the flow of supplies to my frontline units. It's a bit like playing "Whack-a-mole". Just when you have one area cleared, up pops another Chinese unit.

11 March

No real combat to speak of.

An allied ASW TF near Koggala inflicted 2 hits on the SS I-122. She'll survive.

As before, Bataan is experiencing continuous air attack by approximately 80 bombers.

Dan has over 100 fighters stationed at Singapore making it impossible to bomb the town or interdict any of the shipping enter and leaving. I am gathering nearly 200 fighters to conduct a sweep of the area to whittle them down.

There is also a lot of shipping in and out of Palembang, Batavia and Osthaven. Some are tankers but many are cargo. I'm not sure if he is removing small amounts of troops from Singapore and bringing in supply or is he doing something in Java. I have subs stationed in and around the straits between Java and Sumatra and it doesn't appear as though the ships are heading out of the area. Just not sure.

I could sure use those 3 sunk CVLs right about now. Unfortunately Hosho is the only carrier (if you can call her that) in the area.

KB remains on patrol between Norfolk Island and Noumea. They are awaiting the arrival of a troop TF that will go to Lord Howe Island. This island will give me a good recon point for the coast of Australia and early warning should his carriers be located in Sydney. I don't know that they are there but that would be the location from which they could do the most damage with raids into the SoPac and Coral Sea.

The CVL Ryuho arrived at Tokyo WITHOUT AN AIRGROUP!!! Her airgroup doesn't arrive until 6 months from now! That means she will sit in port until it arrives unless I can meld the rememants of the other CVL airgroups into an effective force. Otherwise she is useless.


12 March

More sub attacks. SS KXVI tried to attack a troop TF near Makassar without success.

SS I-159 took 4 hits from a AM near Townsville and will have to retire for repairs.

Bettys flying out of Makassar attacked the airfield at Soerabaja and destroyed a Banshee on the ground. One less divebomber to worry about. A single P-40 rose to interdict but was driven off by the escort.

A second raid took care of the P-40 shooting it down and scored 6 runways hits. These raids are more of a nuisance raid in the hope that Dan will reposition some of his fighters to defend the port. So far, no good.

SS I-3 and DD Conyngham have been playing tag 400nm north of Lihune. No damage to either side.

Chinese bombers took to the air with little success against my troops near Changsha.

Baker Island falls. It was undefended.

13 March

Japanese invasion forces are landing at Singkawang. SS KXV attempted to interfere and was sunk by gunfire after being forced to the surface by DCs.

So I sent a very large sweep against his fighters in Singapore. Of course, the sweeps fragmented despite the presence of 2 Air HQs. 18 Zeros and met 32 H81-A3s, 7 Hurri Trop IIa's, 63 Hurri Trop IIb's, and 32 P-40Es. 18 Zeros against 124 fighters.... 5 Zeros lost, 2 P-40s downed.

Next 24 Zeros went in and met 20 H81-A3's, 7 Hurri Trop IIa's, 63 Hurri Trop IIb's and 26 P-40s. 5 more Zeros lost, 1 P-40 downed.

Then 23 Ki-43-Ic Oscars encounter 18 H81-A3's, 6 Hurri Trop IIa's, 54 Hurri Trop IIb's and 22 P-40s. 3 Oscars downed, 1 P-40 lost.

Along come 36 Ki-43-Ib Oscars. They meet 16 H81-A3's, 5 Hurri Trop IIa's, 47 Hurri Trop IIb's and 14 P-40s. 3 Oscars gone, 1 H81-A3.

But it gets worse. 9 Sallys at Mersing decide that the coast is clear and take off to attack a cargo vessel at Singapore. They meet 59 allied fighters. The CR says 3 Sallys lost.

Not to be outdone by their army brethern, 9 Nells from Kuantan decide to do the same thing. 48 Allied fighters shoot them all down.

Then 4 fearless Sallys decide that the Singapore area is a bit too hot so they fly down Tandjoenginang to attack a lone merchant. Fortunately only 1 P-40 is around but it shoots down 1 Sally and damages another. And of course the bombs miss the target.

And again the Navy has to follow the lead of their army friends. 13 Bettys raid the same TF. They encounter 2 P-40s that damage three of them but they are able to launch torpedoes. One xAK sustains 3 torps and the 2. Both sink loaded with support troops. 99 allied vehicles go down with the ships. Funny that the combat report lists 75 vehicles destroyed while 24 are only "disabled" at the bottom of the sea!!!

Now comes another sweep. 26 Ki-43-Ic Oscars engage 5 H81-A3's, 4 Hurri Trop IIa's, 25 Hurri Trop IIb's and 8 P-40s. One Oscar is lost along with one Hurri Trop IIb.

We're still aren't done yet. 36 Zeros then coming flying down to Singapore and find 4 H81-A3's, 4 Hurri Trop IIa's, 16 Hurri Trop IIb's and 5 P-40s. The odds are finally in my favor but it does little good. 2 Zeros lost for 2 Hurri Trop IIb's and 1 P-40.

Finally the morning air phase ends.

More stupid bomber attacks in the afternoon. 4 Nells go to raid a TF at Palembang. All 4 are lost as 16 allied fighters chew them up.

More Nells go in to Palembang. 9 attack and all are shot down.

4 other Nells pay a visit to Singapore. All lost.

A total of 78 Zeros and 85 Oscars go in at high altitude and come out like ground hamburger. 19 Japanese fighters and 9 allied fighters downed acording to the combat report.

Actual losses were 31 Zeros and 23 Oscars shot down, ops losses accounted for 6 each. Total loss was 66 fighters. These were all 65+ experience units.

In addition, 10 Sallys and 22 Nells were shot down with 3 ops losses for a total of 35 bombers lost.

Allied losses were 9 P-40s shot down with 3 more to ops losses. 8 Huuri IIb's shot down and 3 to ops. 2 H81-A3's shot down and 1 to ops and last, 2 Hurri IIa's lost to ops losses for a total of 19 shot down and 9 ops losses.

The fragmentation of the sweeps is probably the single biggest resaon for the huge losses though I can't explain why they fragmented so badly. My fighters launched at a range of 2 from Mersing, a level 6 airfield with 2 air HQs and over 100k of supply. They were all set to the same altitude,, 32K ft. The defensive CAP was stacked from 15K-29K feet yet not one time did my fighters get the bounce. Radar was not a factor as all raids were detected at 40nm or less. In fact the first sweep was detected at 17nm. Radar is not mentioned in any of the reports.

Anyways, these losses hurt bad. My Sally bomber pool is empty. Production has been ramped up but engines are the limiting factor for the moment. Soon I will be producing 90 Sallys a month but it will be much longer before the pilot losses are made good. 85 pilots listed as KIA or MIA. Only 2 wounded.

14 March

My air forces in Malaya have stood down. The Sally units are out of the action for some time to come so will be rotated back to Saigon. The Nell losses have been replaced and experienced pilots drawn from other units to make up the difference.

SS I-16 encountered another AM near Newcastle. Both escaped unharmed. Then SS I-18 encountered the same AM with the same result.

SS KVII put a torpedo into the large xAK Arimasan Maru near Singkawang. Must have been a good shot because she sank.

Singkawang falls to a 27:1 deliberate attack. The allied units retreat to the east.

15 March

More surprises in store for me. I have several subs guarding the apporaches to the straits near Oosthaven. An allied ML tagged I-164 with 3 hits and begins the trip home for repairs.

Then I-155 strikes a mine at Merak and is severely damaged.

Next I-27 finds the tanker Francol and puts a torp into her sinking her at Merak. She then also strikes a mine at Merak! All 3 subs should make port but the straits are now unguarded. More subs are being sent to fill in.

SS I-160 sank a small xAKL with gunfire near Brisbane.

A second amphib TF begins unloading at Kuching with problems.

I-3 continues to play tag with DD Hammann and Hughes. No damaged sustain by either side.

Soerabaja is slowly gathering airfiled damage as my bombers continue to bomb. He must not have many engineers there because I seld send more than 15 bombers at a time.

I conducted a preliminary bombardment at Singapore to guage the state of defense. He is removing troops from there. AV values ar 2832 to his 874. I have another division on the way so I will hold any attacks until the arrive.

SUMMARY:
I must admit Dan has me stymied. I'm unable to dislodge his fighters from Singapore, my bombers have been ravaged and he continues to build up Palembang without interference. The only bright spot is that I anticipate Bataan fallling soon and then I will send those troops to Singapore and Java.

Singapore should fall after Bataan as I will bring many troops in from there but this will take time.

I cannot let Dan sit at Palembang as I need the place. But as long as he is there, I cannot starve him out as he will enjoy good supply. He has probably built the fort level higher than the sky. Plus I need to make sure that there won't be any effective retreat from the place. According to my calculations, I have enough fuel to last through July at its present usage. So I could hold off assaulting the place until June. I am considering taking NW Australia down to Exmouth to prevent him from redploying his air forces to Australia or India. Port Blair needs to be taken too but that will happen when Singapore falls..and then turning attention to Palembang.

I am seriously open to ideas on how to handle this.

Chez

[Bullwinkle58]

Can't help you on Palembang, but could you in the interim get some fuel relief on Borneo? Pinning the Empire's hopes on P. with that tight a time restriction seems risky.

[SuluSea]

Here's what happened during my Palembang stand.

My opponent attacked across the river into Palembang which forced a shock attack, the end result of his shock attack was damaged industry oil and refinery , memory is fuzzy but I'd say 15 to 30 point range.
In Late May/early June IIRC he got to Palembang faced off against all the Dutch troops I could muster and one Indian division from forces I combined from Singapore and one Punjab unit .
My forces were in the 2,200 AV range, I thought he compounded a strategic mistake by landing on South Java and actually pushed more troops my way, I'm guessing around 70 AV plus some engineers before evacuations from Java was stopped.
When my opponent got to Palembang forts were real close to 6 (maybe 3 to 4 turns away), I had the NZ engineers out of Singers earmarked for Palembang but an I-boat got a fish into one of the two AKs carrying them and I just bypassed it to rebuild the unit and build forts elsewhere. (mentioned that so that you have a reference point what Dutch engineers can do.)
From what I saw Palembang will produce supply until the enemy arrives.
During the seige in my game I had lost complete air superiority from mid May with nothing left to fly the Japanese side was bringing everything he had bombers weren't even flying in Burma, supply was slowly trickling downward. I noted supply loss every turn but felt it was marginal . It wasn't until the IJN showed up and started bombarding I felt headway was being made.
The catch 22 is ship to shore bombardment can damage industry .
I prepped all DEI troops except those needed to garrison Java for Palembang on day one by the time Imperial Forces got there the waiting troops were not only 100% prepped but gained (considering the starting points) nice experience levels.
My general feeling was the Dutch AA units performed better than I anticipated I didn't check the ceilings of the Dutch guns because I couldn't control where he was bombing from, going from memory operations were around 15,000 ft.
I'm pretty certain the opponent brought roughly 4,600 AV to the party and added atleast a couple more units as the summer wore on.
Swamp terrain has very good defensive modifiers.
My troops held on until late September/early October and didn't lose the place until Palembang supply was sitting at zero and still held on 1 extra deliberate attack with the supply the units had on hand.
Industry was wrecked upon eviction with Oil and Refinery producing in the neighborhood of 4 and 10.
All units had the best leaders I could pay for.

[Alfred]

ChezDaJez,

Back in post #23 you asked for people to “avoid giving away Canoerebel’s past strategies”. As any advice from me would, at least subconsciously, have been framed with the knowledge of your opponent’s modus operandi, I have refrained from posting after my initial post. However following your last post, a few observations may be possible without breaching your earlier request. BTW, you should not assume this self imposed restraint of not studying your opponent’s previous play is reciprocated.

These are only a few generalised comments. Screenshots, force dispositions and your industrial situation would be necessary for more detailed comments.

Palembang

1. The first issue to consider is your observation that you cannot starve the Allied position at Palembang. That claim is actually not accurate. Palembang does generate a lot of supply and therefore it can sustain a sizeable garrison. But, in the absence of importing supply, there are most definitely limits as to:

• the size of the garrison
• ability to accept replacements and rearm both air and naval assets
• building infrastructure

2. Once you accept the proposition that Palembang can be starved, you are then faced with two quite different direct solutions to deal with Palembang, and one indirect solution. In general terms, these solutions are to:

• capture Palembang by assault
• capture Palembang by stealth via a siege
• make the Allied position at Palembang irrelevant

Taking into account your observations regarding cargo ships in the vicinity which remain in the area plus evacuation from Singapore plus the large Allied air force currently stationed at Singapore which can be easily relocated to Palembang, I would not advocate the direct capture of Palembang by assault. To attempt to do so would require the use of prodigious amounts of Japanese assets which IMHO would be more profitably used elsewhere. Accordingly my advice is to approach the Palembang test using a combination of stealth and making it irrelevant.

3. A stealth approach to Palembang contains the following elements:

• limiting Palembang’s supply generation capacity
• establishing a cordon sanitaire around Palembang
• encouraging the Allied player to over garrison Palembang
• Japan taking the appropriate actions elsewhere to allow it to last the distance of the siege
• contrary to popular myth, in scenario2 steady, intelligently targeted application of Japanese assets rather than brutal frontal application of assets is the key to success

To provide some context to these planning bullet points here are a few factors to bear in mind.

(a) Palembang itself has much more refining capacity than it does oil production. To maximise its supply generation it is dependent on continued access to the oil of Djambi. Cut that LOC and either there is a substantial reduction in Palembang supply production or troops are moved out of their fortifications to reopen the LOC, in the process weakening the Palembang defence

(b) supply production in northern Sumatra is an important secondary supply source for the Allied forces in southern Sumatra in the vicinity of Palembang. Capture that and you not only put pressure on the Allied supply depots down south, you also feed your own southern marching forces. Both Medan and Bengkalis can be captured before Singapore falls with Japanese invasion TFs entering the Strait of Malacca from the Indian Ocean

(c) Japan owning the Sumatran off shore islands plus Cocos and Christmas islands, plus the Java bases is part of establishing a cordon sanitaire. The range of your aircraft cannot be matched by the Allies so you can attack enemy resupply/reinforcement TFs well outside of range of Allied LRCAP. With good naval search you can quickly vector in the IJN.

(d) Allied players tend to over concentrate on amassing raw AV at those points they intend to defend stoutly and pay insufficient attention to firepower and the actual consumption rate of supplies needed to maintain the amassed forces (land, sea and air) at maximum combat staying power. They tend to not fully appreciate that all the mouths present still have to be fed even though the combat value of the individual units may be widely divergent. It often means that a large part of the combat force is essentially a one shot wonder, not really structured to survive attrition of their logistics.

Some of the ways to attrite the enemy logistics is to engage them in aerial combat away from their airbases so that their aircraft operational and pilot MIA losses are maximised. Southern Sumatra has no good ports, so engage in naval combat well in advance of sailing the invasion TFs so that local naval rearming and repairs is under considerable stress and not 100% combat ready to oppose an invasion. These are all actions consistent with establishing a cordon sanitaire.

(e) the rest of the DEI produces more oil than does Palembang. The fact that this campaign is in mid March 1942 and this oil has still not been captured is a serious indictment. The fact that some early Japanese convoys were wiped out is no excuse. If the original forces earmarked for the capture of Tarakan, Balikpapan etc were destroyed you should have redirected the forces you used in the south Pacific to instead capture these oil centres which would not have been strongly defended. They must be captured ASAP, even before Singapore. Some of the forces released from the end of the Luzon campaign should be immediate tasked with their capture.

Sweeps

LoBaron has posted extensively on air operations in AE. It is his considered view that sweeps cannot be co-ordinated. No amount of tinkering with heights, Air HQs, supply etc has an impact. My recommendation is to do the following:

• desist from attempting to follow up a fighter sweep with unescorted bombers
• don’t attempt to amass 200 fighters to sweep a single base, instead spread them out to sweep multiple bases simultaneously and when you have discovered enemy bases with minimum cap reinforce your success but maintain the pressure elsewhere
• concentrate on LRCAPing Singapore rather than sweeping. This has three benefits, firstly you stand a chance of getting co-ordination, secondly it provides high escort for your close escort bomber raids, and thirdy if your opponent is using airplanes to fly in supply/fly out troops, you intercept the air transports

Fuel Stocks

You state that at current usage rates, you have sufficient fuel to last through to July 1942. This is clearly a dangerous situation and IMHO is largely due to two fundamental mistakes committed by you viz failure to capture early the oil centres and misuse of the fleet.

Currently you are wasting both fuel and key strategic assets steaming the KB between Norfolk Island and Noumea waiting for the arrival of the Lord Howe Island invasion TF. Firstly, it was not that long ago that the mini KB was ambushed, by your estimate, by 6 Allied CVs off Bali. Those 6 CVs are not going to be able to intercept the Lord Howe invasion fleet, so the KB is loitering with no prospect of gainful employment. Secondly, any covering Japanese forces should be in port conserving fuel until the invasion fleet arrives. Thirdly, Lord Howe Island is far too insignificant a location to merit the presence of the KB when most of the DEI, including the vital oil centres, remains in Allied hands; when a cordon sanitaire against Palembang is yet to be instituted.

Anyway, that should be enough to get the discussion started. If you want, more informed suggestions are possible if you post screenshots and force disposition details.

Alfred