Dan has the troops in Sumatra. It would be close if they were near a regular port but there is not enough small stuff to get up the river. 3 days to put in amphibious mode plus 2 to load, 2 more to sail. Just too close, but 2 divisions behind the lines would cause havoc. Might still want to start to pack up and plan for it though. If the KB is elsewhere, attacks and gets hung up for a couple of day there might be up to 10 guaranteed days to really do something special.
I would advise against such a move as well. Landings on the Malaya coast can be countered by massive amounts of LBA. The Allied carriers would need to provide CAP over the landing beaches and would thus become very vulnerable themselves. The Japanese can also rail in reinforcements from Thailand and land enough supplies at Mersing to keep their spearhead out of trouble.
A best case scenario is a serious delay to the fall of Singapore, but at a serious cost to the defence Palembang, which can inflict an equally long delay without sacrificing the shipping.
There's very little point in breaking the shield wall while your opponent is actively in the process of cheaply impaling themselves on the pike wall.
Advice to do is significantly sub-optimal.
As to invading Malaysia early on. It is most definitely possible in early 1942- April or so is eminently doable - BUT it isn't worth doing until such time as the enemy is thoroughly disrupted. Landing just to be defeated in detail isn't a smart operation.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Been away for the day working in the yard and running errands. It gave me some time to think about Dan's victory and I have to concur with Nemo's last Post. My immediate reaction was to continue with the offensive and build on the victory, however, now I think you should finish off the damaged ships and then see what your opponent does.
The KB will come. Bide your time and prepare for that. If you see the opportunity to strike do so. This is similar to what I was saying earlier but it is more tempered with a bit of perspective. You have won several victories and thoroughly derailed Japan's opening here. Victory is yours--early--if you remain careful and well thought out in your reactions and planning.
Member: Treaty, Reluctant Admiral and Between the Storms Mod Team.
I'm just getting caught up with power back on. Thanks for lots of good suggestions and encouraging words.
The Allies carriers won't be heading into enemy waters. In the first place, Steve will withdraw all his vulnerable shipping and has a big start in doing so. Secondly, he has big airfields in the east at Makassar, Ambon, Kendari (and to a lesser extent the new one at Dempasar). To the west, he has them at Mersing and further up the Malay peninsula. So I could get into trouble quickly. Also, those waters are sub infested. So, alot of danger and not much chance of achieving anything.
I should have a temporary lull in enemy activity as Steve won't risk defeat against a known threat. He'll wait until he has the KB present before moving forward. (He'll be itching for revenge, so I had better watch out for attempts at surprise flanking moves.) I would like to use the lull for a quick move. Dempasar would be my preference as it is lightly held, but I don't have any good units available. Another possibility is Sabang. It's a much safer move for me. It's held by one unit, though I don't know whether that's a fragment of an SNLF or a full division. Recpaturing it would reopen my easy routes of ingress and egress for aircraft to travel from India to Port Blair to Sumatra. I think it would be a bit of a blow to Steve. I don't have loose (unrestricted) troops hanging around, but I'm going to take a look at the possibilities.
My carriers can operate pretty safely in the region between Cocos Island and the seas south and west of Sumatra, at least until Singapore falls. I would consider transferring carrier air to airfields at some point if it seemed helpful to do so. My carrier air suffered what I would consider light losses - nothing disabling. I will try to get some supply to Singapore ASAP, and some Allied combat ships will be in the Java Sea searching for opportunities to strike (I don't expect any because Steve, as noted, will be cautious). I'd also like to whack the Japanese at Singapore via bombardment TF if I think I can do so safely.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Eastern DEI: The Japanese ships withdrew into the safety of the air umbrella around Kendari. PT boats out of Soerabaja did manage to put a TT into a lagging IJ AMC near Denmpasser. Later that day Blenheims scored one bomb hit. Steve might try some quick and low risk suprise invasions in the DEI in coming days and weeks, but I can almost guarantee he's not going to take any big risks until the KB is on the scene.
Western DEI: Some Allied combat ships will refuel and meet at Batavia. I'm going to try to coordinate some LRCAP so that my ships can bombard Singapore, though I won't do it if things appear too hot. If IJA LBA continues to concentrate on Singapore, I can probably chance it. The Allied carriers are retiring to the west and will briefly take station south of Merak to refuel. Then I'll decide what to do with them - patrol south of Sumatra, behind a line of picket ships, or retire to Colombo to refit. Lexington, for instance, has been at sea the entire war, with the exception of brief stops at Kodiak and Tahiti (quite a world tour).
Japanese Carriers: Massive IJ armada just south of Fiji includes two big carrier groups. Almost certainly this is an invasion of weakly defended Fiji, but it also means Japan is expending alot of effort in an area that is of far less strategic importance than the DEI. I should have at least a week to ten days in which I can orchestrate things to my liking in the DEI before the KB arrives.
The Future: Clark Field will fall within the week. It might take Japan a few weeks to wrap up Bataan and organize shipping to lift the IJA divisions to their next post(s). Those divisions are pretty beat up right now. I believe Steve will make a concerted effort to wrap up Singapore and then deal with Java, Sumatra, and any Allied ships in the region. At this point, I'd say I have about another month to move troops and supplies into Sumatra, then things will become much tighter and more difficult in that area as Steve should be able to impose a blockade. I'll be waiting on the periphery to strike, looking for opportunities to employ LBA, carriers and combat ships.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I'd at least think about a refit, as this may be the last quiet period before KB gets done with Fiji and skedaddles to the DEI.
PS Very glad to hear you made it through the storms ok. Ironically, we desperately need storms out here. We had Texas Forest Service C-130s dropping flame retardant on a big fire not 1.5 miles west of my house in suburban Austin. No real rain for months and it's not even summer yet. Ugh.
I'm leaning towards sending the American carriers to Colombo to upgrade and repair, while leaving Indomitable and Hermes on patrol in the IO south of Java/Sumatra.
Formidable arrives at Capetown in about 13 days. Hornet arrives at Balboa in about 24 days. I think Formidable will definately reach the theater before Japan moves on Sumatra. I don't plan to tangle with the KB, but I do plan to juke and spar in order to give Steve a case of the yips.
I'm debating what to do next. I'm leaning towards a quick invasion of Sabang (or landing at the base east of Sabang and then making it a ground campaign. The Allied carriers would provide CAP. Capital ships would bombard. Not sure I'm going to do this yet, but it's under consideration.
Dwain, I bet you guys in Texas are ready for just a nice average year - no extremes. I hope you'll get some decent rain soon.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Japanese Carriers: Massive IJ armada just south of Fiji includes two big carrier groups. Almost certainly this is an invasion of weakly defended Fiji, but it also means Japan is expending alot of effort in an area that is of far less strategic importance than the DEI. I should have at least a week to ten days in which I can orchestrate things to my liking in the DEI before the KB arrives.
That makes little sense to me. Why expand your perimeter even further when you haven't secured the most vitally important area on the map? That said we saw something very similar happen in our DBB 2x2. Our game ended in May '42 and we still held Palembang.
"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry
Nothing is certain, but I feel pretty sure I'll still hold Palembang into May 1942. Even if Steve has his cavalry troops mount and sounds "Charge!" it's going to be at least a month before he could arrive in force (probably more like two). Then he'd have to reduce the base and that's probably going to take at least a month, maybe as long as three. That timetable increases if he bypasses Palembang or dallies, which is likely.
As for Fiji, I can only guess that this is a bit of "What Might Have Happened in World War II" mania - the fixation on what was important in the actual war. Fiji would have been a major Japanese conquest, so I think some IJ players attach alot more importance than it's actually worth (and some Allied players do too). Fiji might be a fine target under certain circumstances, but not when the enemy is carving you up right in your vitals.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Thanks, Dan. Usual hyperbole aside, we just don't have average years here. Looking at a rainfall chart going back over a century will give you whiplash. Wet or dry, no in between. We are slaves to El Nino and La Nina.
+1 to Vettim's post. Taking Fiji, even on the cheap, without making progress in the DEI is puzzling strategy.
In my present game with Steve, Palembang fell on May 20, 1942 with only a portion of the troops holding it that Dan has invested. You will probably see it last longer in this game.
Steve likes to expand to a defensive perimeter where all his bases are only capable of being reached by long range fighters, making carriers indispensable for your offensives. I don't know if he will be able to achieve that in your game, but that is what he has done in two games against me.
I typed a long, scintillating post describing the genius of my moves on February 28, but my computer ate it. Discouraged, I am just going to hit the highlights:
Eastern DEI: The enemy is regrouping and lickings its wounds at Kendari. Zeroes are flying CAP duty at Denpassar, supported by 5th Air Division (is that a torp-enabling HQ?; I assume it is).
Western DEI: Allied combat ships will rendezvou at Batavia over the next two or three days. I'm considering a bombardment run on the IJ army at Allied-held Singapore. Lots of Allied units coming ashore at Oosthaven and Benkolen including base forces and AA units.
China: The Japanese are slowly trying to get in a position for their next push in the Changsha sector.
Luzon: No enemy attacks, which means the Allies held Clark Field against five IJA divisions into March. It'll fall soon, but it bought the Allies lots of time.
SoPac: The enemy is invading Suva with two regiments, two naval guards, and a few odds and ends: enough to overwhelm the garrison. The KB is parked just to the south.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Eastern DEI: Mini KB north of Kendari. I suspect she's vacating the danger zone. I bet the next time I see her it's escorting a rear area invasion like Tarakan, Miri, or Brunei. Eventually, she'll combine with the KB to cover any Java/Sumatra operations.
Western DEI: Two Allied bombardment TFs bound for Singapore depart Batavia tonight - a fast one (cruisers) and a slow one (includes BB Royal Sovereign). There is some risk given IJ LBA at Mersing, Kuantan, and points north, but I suspect Steve is focused right now on bombing Singapore (I know he can configure alternative targets, but I don't think he is). I'm not sure what effect a bombardment will have on enemy troops in a friendly hex, but I'd like to see if it's worthwhile.
China: In five or six more days, Steve should be ready to move on whichever of the three bases he's going to select. I'm getting SigInt that 8 Ind. Mixed Bde. and 38th Reg't are prepping for Changsha.
Luzon: A Japanese deliberate attack comes off at 1:1 and inflicts heavy casualties on the Allies. Steve may need to rest a day - or may not - but the base should fall tomorrow or the day after.
SoPac: Suva holds against a 3:1 attack that drops forts from 3 to 0. It will fall tomorrow. KB moving off to the northwest. I expect to next see it in the Java Sea or Indian Ocean.
Invasion Bonus: Doesn't the IJ invasion bonus expire on March 31?
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
You can air transport in the Aviation Support of an Air HQ, but the the torpedo enabling part has to be shipped in.
Don't think this is correct. Once the parent flips to the transported unit, you can pull in torpedoes. At least in my experience, maybe there's some circumstances where you can't.
You can air transport in the Aviation Support of an Air HQ, but the the torpedo enabling part has to be shipped in.
Don't think this is correct. Once the parent flips to the transported unit, you can pull in torpedoes. At least in my experience, maybe there's some circumstances where you can't.
I typed a long, scintillating post describing the genius of my moves on February 28, but my computer ate it. Discouraged, I am just going to hit the highlights:
As I see this thing quite often, I would like to interrupt with a public service announcement.
If you use Firefox,Chrome, or Safari you can use the Lazarus extension/plugin to easily recover those lost posts.
Luzon: To my surprise, Clark Field held again. The Japanese divisions are showing AVs in the low 200s, so they just haven't been able to muster the oomph to get a 2:1. But the Allied troops have taken heavy losses, so I am sure the next attack will succeed. The question is: how long will it take the IJA divisions to recover to fighting trim? Clark Field was an Allied victory.
Eastern DEI: Mini KB still hanging around a few hexes north of Kendari; Japanese are reconning Semereng. I would bet Java is the next target (as opposed to a sudden leap for Sumatra or a shift to northwestern Oz).
Western DEI: Important day tomorrow. I've shifted 180 fighters to Singapore - alot of Hurricanes, some AVG and P-40Es, and a few ragtag Buffalo and P-39s. This will coincide with at least one and maybe two bombardment TFs targeting the IJ army at Singapore. These ships are set to remain at Singapore under the fighter umbrella. This is a risky move, but I need to find out if bombardments of Allied-controlled hexes are effective. If it works, and if my ships don't take damage, I'll re-target Singapore the next day or perhaps the IJ airfield at Mersing. I have a pretty good hunch that the Japanese won't be expecting this and won't have strike aircraft set to naval strike, but I could be wrong.
Allied carriers: The American carriers are moving west to Colombo to upgrade and re-arm. Hermes and Indomitable will remain on patrol south of the Sunda Straight.
SoPac: Suva falls to the enemy on a 2:1 attack. Will the Japanese continue to work in SoPac or SWPac? That would be my preferred area of operations for them, so they probably won't.
Big Decision Coming: Clark Field provided an enormous distraction and buffer zone. With its fall, the front lines will collapse to the immediate vicinity of Singapore, Sumatra, and Java, though it will take some time for Japan to get some forward airfields (on Borneo), transfer troops to the region, and neutralize the Allied carrier threat. I have some time, but not alot. I'd like to create a new diversion, but I don't have enough political points to do everything I want to do. 27th USA Division is enroute to Capetown. If I feel she's needed in India, I'll have no choice but to expend most of my PP buying it. That will eliminate the possibility of a diversion elsewhere. But if I decide there isn't a pressing need to defend India (IE, if I become convinced Japan isn't going there), I could hit the Kuriles quickly and effectively. Just got SigInt that 1,892 IJ troops are at Paramushiro. I have 41st Div. at Seattle 100% prepped for that target. I have other troops prepping for it and Onnekotan Jima. I could buy 41st Div. and mount an invasion of the northern Kuriles. I have plenty of good transports and three BBs (Warspite, Colorado and Tennessee) in theater. This is just in the thinking stages, but I am moving transports from California to Seattle just in case I decide to proceed.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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