1.04.10 Fulkerson vs KLilly

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the ground losses so far:

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the OOB:

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the state of Soviet production so far:

[heliodorus04]

So I've been reading this AAR now for a few days, and the way I view my role in the AAR is to ask a couple pertinent questions.

Before I do so, please forgive me if I anything comes across as harsh - it's not my intention. I'm just a tech writer, so I write very unemotional, sometimes harsh-sounding stuff.

Let's start with the highly positive, and try to understand what the negatives are and how to proceed with them.

A) Positive
You hold the south in good order and good force.
You have not reached 3 million casualties.
You outnumber the Germans
The 41 offensive by the Germans is OVER!

B) Bad
Moscow & Major pop centers are lost.
Finns freeing up Germans.
Your central and northern fronts are in very bad order

Moving on, I could say a lot about play up to this point, but I don't think that would be terribly helpful. What I would like to do, however, is to talk about how *I* personally play the Soviet and what considerations I give to making the mass of uncoordinated and often toothless units effective.

If you look at my AAR, you'll see that I'm in about the same boat as you were in various places, though my casualties are a bit lower, and I've done better in the North. In the center I'm about the same as you (probably will lose Moscow soon) and in the South I'm not quite as good as you, but it's close.

Soviet effectiveness is enhanced by a couple of key strategic decisions:
I: Admin Points

One of the problems with giving feedback to this AAR is that you're not giving me much in the way of your strategic analysis. It's all maps and statistics. I don't know how you emphasized commanders, and I don't know how you emphasized Army and Front organization. But these two factors matter a great deal to how your army performs.

I have, through the summer offensive of the Axis, prioritized the following Admin Point expenditures:
1) Improve the commander of one important army or front per turn.
"improve" to me means that you are improving a front/army commander for the following characteristics (in order of importance)
a) Administration value
b) Morale value (tie).
b) Initiative value (higher values mean more movement, meaning more chance to escape pockets and more chance to dig-in with left-over MPs.
c) Infantry value

2) Manage divisions by ensuring divisions are within 5 of their Army HQ (unless attached to a corps, in which case 5 of the corps). This is where I spend the bulk of my AP - because I'd rather spend a few AP to swap a division to a nearby HQ than I would spend the MPs to move the same division to its HQ instead. Movement costs supply and fatigue, both of which impact combat performance. Spending APs doesn't impact combat performance (well, ostensibly it can improve it by getting you closer to your HQ).

3) Manage SU attachments to Army HQs
This is a very long-term project and is a lower priority than the above, but you have to devote some time to it. I disband as follows:

Motorcycle regiments (more rifle squads for your reinforcement pool)
AA battalions (battalions are always inferior to regiments anyway)

Following that, I also ensure a little each turn, that I have 2 construction battalions in every army HQ (using the assign/form button). Just helps with digging in.

I ensure that each active Army HQ (inactive HQs would be ones where all subordinates are basically destroyed - 2 or 3 divisions in an HQ doesn't count it as "active" but I often re-assign units to partially destroyed Army HQs) has at least 3 artillery regiment, and important ones have up to 5 artillery regiments (Leningrad is important, for example).

The SU situation can be managed by a combination of auto-allocation of SUs, direct movement of SUs (to a lateral command or to a higher command - STAVKA is the best choice when in doubt) and disbandment. Auto allocation is easiest to move them out of an overloaded HQ by setting the auto-allocation low; in contrast, set the higher HQs of an overloaded HQ to a high value. For example, if an army in Northwestern Front has 5 arty, 4 AA bns, 2 construction bns, and a motorcycle regiment:
disband the motorcycle
set the auto-allocation number to 3. Set Northwestern front to 9.
1 AA bn and 2 arty will move up to NW front.

It takes a LONG time to do this efficiently, so you have to grasp the concepts generally, set up a plan, and use APs where necessary.

II. Priorities
It's hard to know what your priorities are as I've read this. As someone else said, strategic focus would benefit your gameplay. At this point, your strategic focus looks decided for you: you traded land for men (more than historical). Hey, look, Napolean took Moscow too, right?

So I've taken the liberty to take your last map and draw on it, which I'll post here in a second post.

[heliodorus04]

Here are what I see as your Blizzard goals:






Allow me to explain:

Kursk:
Consolidate your lines and shorten the front between your South-south (Dnepr area) and your central south (kursk). Not sure you can do this in mud.

The idea is to lower the number of hexes you have to defend by pulling the center to the east. This frees up forces for counter-attacks in the blizzard.

Counter-attacks:
One of the most interesting things in your game is how your Axis opponent didn't re-prioritize units such that he could have a unified front. This is the mistake you need to hang him on.

[heliodorus04]

This is how I would envision your blizzard counter-attacks:

I. During snow, reposition Western Front so that it guards
a. Bryansk front prepares to drive due north.
Equip it with cavalry, a little armor, and infantry.
Put a good commander in charge
Don't be afraid to have this front (or any well lead Soviet Front) with 80 CP of units. I've given Zhukov up to 120 CP worth of units and he still performed reasonably well (on defense, it should be noted).

You do have too many units in STAVKA that are going to be necessary for attacks. I believe it is expected that Soviet Fronts are going to be over-stacked between 80 and 90 CP worth of units. Good Army HQ command can help a lot with that over-full CP issue.

b. Southern front (which appears to have far too few units directly attached with all those STAVKA dudes around) holds the Dnepr (emphasis on the Crimea entrance at all costs) and during blizzard/freeze, can perhaps try to cross a frozen river. Know where the axis minors are. Show them absolutely no mercy.

II. Pinch off Kharkov.
Southwestern Front should handle this job. With help from those STAVKA units.
Again, remember it's okay to over-stack Fronts. 80 to 90 CP.

III. Bryansk threatens to encircle AGC.
I don't think it can be achieved, but you can damn sure take back a lot of ground, and probably Moscow.
Bryansk Front must drive north as shown.
Before you can be super-effective doing that, though.
a) Consolidate all Western Front units (I see some up by Moscow).
b) WHERE IS RESERVE FRONT? (Brown on brown). You should be using this front as though its name was meaningless (I think of it as the fire-brigade front, and not a true reserve).
c) Consolidate as many Stavka units into a command as organically as possible (meaning use as little movement as possible (priority 1) and as little Admin Points as possible). You have about 7 turns to manage that. And this goes all across your front. You are depriving yourself of backup HQ rolls for all those STAVKA units (I realize many may be in armies, which is good, but armies in fronts is better).

III. Northwestern & Northern Fronts.
Good news up there is that terrain is now a big obstacle to the Germans. You aren't likely to lose any more land up there, really ever (if your counter-attacks do well).

Bad news is the German knows this and will be moving units southward over the next several turns.

Consolidate a line. This area will not need your best commanders, I suspect (reassign good leaders to Bryansk, et al.)
Extraneous forces (which may be very little) can help roll the front backward toward the Southwest (Moscow/Vellikie Luki) etc.

[heliodorus04]

I have to run off to school now.
Let me know if this helps, and if I should shut my mouth, that's always something people should tell me

Good luck with the mud.

The most glaring inefficiency that I see for your winter success is trucks.
It appears you have airfields haphazardly scattered across the motherland.
Disband bases you don't need. Try to have the number of aircraft on airfields roughly equal to 75 percent of the support units on that field (usually 250 support squads). I shoot for 110 to 125 aircraft per field, with 6 formations assigned per field. Disband those that aren't necessary.

Every turn, I start as follows:
1) Move beat up aircraft to national reserve (beat up means 51% or more of aircraft are damaged.
2) Look at the front for a long time and just think (don't touch!)
3a) Examine each front (I usually go north to south), it's CP situation.
3b) Check EACH army in a front for Unready units, commander situation (can he be upgraded, should he be?), and generally seeing who I can attack with and who I need to protect.
3c) Forts: where are they, where do I want them next turn.

4a) Set air doctrines as necessary
4b) Recon
4c) Fly important missions first (airbase bombing, unit bombing)

5) Move units, paying careful attention to where I want to attack and when in the turn it should be done (sometimes you need to know if you win or lose before you can decide how the rest of your movement is going to go).

6) Command ranges (keep divisions with their parent HQ range, and within 5 wherever possible)

7) Move air FROM the national reserve to air fields.

Hope that helps.

[larryfulkerson]

Wow!  I don't think I've ever received more and better advice.  Many many thanks.  I'm going to get busy and see if I can straighten out
my game.  And the lack of a strategic plan on the part of playing the Soviet side.......um.....I didn't really have a plan....I was just reacting
to what the Axis dude was doing.  Trying to get my units into his advance path to slow things down and make him fight for every hex he
advances.  Not a whole lot more than that.  I haven't even replaced any leaders yet anywhere.  Thanks to your advice I think maybe I can
get my head out of my ass and clean up my mess.  LOL.

Here's the T19 front lines before any Soviet movement:

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the ground losses so far:

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the OOB:

[larryfulkerson]

Here's the state of Soviet production: [ this view is mostly for the developers ]

[76mm]

Larry, Helio gave some very good advice, but I disagree with him that the German offensive is over; there are three more clear turns after the mud, and the Germans will be rested, so they can really do some damage during those turns. (if this game is historical weather?).

Also, as Helio pointed out, many of your Fronts seem really underloaded.

Also I agree that I would like to see more commentary and analysis rather than just maps and stats, which provide limited insight and at the end of the day are not particularly interesting...

[larryfulkerson]

I've noticed that my rail capability is down somewhat. It used to be 104+K and now it's 80+K so the Axis capture of some of the most major cities has effected my rail ability a lot. It's about 20% lower than it used to be. Now I can't evacuate industry as well as I used to be able to do. I'm going to have to see if I can capture some of those rail cities back during the '41 Winter Offensive ( if there is one ).

[larryfulkerson]

My plans for the '41 Winter Offensive ( if there is one ):  To kill as many Axis units as possible and re-capture the rail / manpower cities that I need to successfully prosecute this war.  Mostly I just need to destroy some Axis units so that he has to break-down his divisions into their pieces so I can hold the front line better during the '42 spring and fall.  I dread whatever he has planned for the '42 spring.  I gotta do as much damage to the Axis side as possible to be able to hold the front line in '42.  Other than that I have no plans what so ever.

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: larryfulkerson
Now I can't evacuate industry as well as I used to be able to do. I'm going to have to see if I can capture some of those rail cities back during the '41 Winter Offensive ( if there is one ).

Well, the good news is that you don't have as much industry to evacuate! [:D]

I'm in the spring of 42 now, and you are right, you really need to inflict some casualties, but you can't bleed yourself either...tough balance.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: 76mm

Also I agree that I would like to see more commentary and analysis rather than just maps and stats, which provide limited insight and at the end of the day are not particularly interesting...

I agree! Some description of notable events and plans would be nice. The maps as they are are excellent for overviews, but some more zoomed in maps occasionally with commentary on especially interesting parts of the front or events would be nice. Now it's basically just here's the map and here are the stats for every turn, and it becomes somewhat repetitive. And I think Joel only asked for stats ever 3d turn or so.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
One of the most interesting things in your game is how your Axis opponent didn't re-prioritize units such that he could have a unified front.

By that, do you mean that he has left one hex gaps in his line?

[heliodorus04]

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
One of the most interesting things in your game is how your Axis opponent didn't re-prioritize units such that he could have a unified front.

By that, do you mean that he has left one hex gaps in his line?

No, I mean he was absolutely fine pushing AGC to the Ural mountains, while his AGS didn't cross the Dnepr in places. This huge gap between AGS and AGC can be exploited for major territory gain from the Bryansk front northward. I think, at least.

Fulkerson, I'm glad I didn't offend you. I was worried about that.

I do want to agree with 76mm that while the offensive is petering out, it is not yet over, and the 3 turns of winter are seriously dangerous for you.

Getting back to your screenshots, here is what I personally track each turn.
Rifle Squads built and Rifle squad (-) built
(that's the actual name of one of your types of rifle squads there with the dash, and those are improved TOE I believe).
Manpower

I like to know how the manpower is going down and how the rifle squads are going up. Rifle squads pull manpower. Manpower buffers an army collapse (via reinforcement).

I like to check the ratio of overall lost men to the axis' and if my ratio is lower than 10:1 in favor of the Axis, I'm doing quite good. So you appear to be doing quite good on the manpower/army size arena versus your opponent.

But if you gave me STAVKA now as a new commander (because if I were Stalin looking at your map, there would be a rail line to the firing squad right now), here is what I'd be doing:

Strategic Priorities in order of importance
1) Consolidate the front line around Kursk by pulling Western front eastward

2) Consolidate command by absorbing STAVKA divisions (priority) and HQs (lesser priority) into Fronts while trying to do two sub-priorities (more on that later) of AP efficiency and army dispersal

3) Start preparing a Winter (Snow) defensive position

4) Start preparing a blizzard counter-stroke

I'm going to do some sub posts with more screen shots on each of these points.

Two other things though:
Tell your opponent to stop reading here instead of 5 days, make it 10 turns. So he can't check out turn 18 until turn 28. I'd like for him to learn some of these things too, but not until you've gotten through the blizzard.

Slow down your turns. It seems to me you two are flying through turns. I base this on how quickly you have made posts up to this turn. I think slowing it all down will help you look at the game a little differently and you might start to see the chess aspects (multi-turn planning) better.

[jjdenver]

@heliodorus04
"Consolidate as many Stavka units into a command as organically as possible (meaning use as little movement as possible (priority 1) and as little Admin Points as possible). You have about 7 turns to manage that. And this goes all across your front. You are depriving yourself of backup HQ rolls for all those STAVKA units (I realize many may be in armies, which is good, but armies in fronts is better)."

What do you mean by "backup HQ rolls"?

EDIT: Oh I just figured it out - you mean put divs in Armies that are in Fronts so you can get more SU's allocated to battles by Fronts.

EDIT 2:

re: "Slow down your turns. It seems to me you two are flying through turns. I base this on how quickly you have made posts up to this turn. I think slowing it all down will help you look at the game a little differently and you might start to see the chess aspects (multi-turn planning) better. "

I sort of disagree - we haven't seen any AAR games go far into 42 player v player that I know of - so if these guys can play fast turns and get this AAR into 43 it's a huge boon for the WITE community imo to see a game go that long. So I say let em proceed rapidly if they can.

[heliodorus04]

ORIGINAL: jjdenver

@heliodorus04
"Consolidate as many Stavka units into a command as organically as possible (meaning use as little movement as possible (priority 1) and as little Admin Points as possible). You have about 7 turns to manage that. And this goes all across your front. You are depriving yourself of backup HQ rolls for all those STAVKA units (I realize many may be in armies, which is good, but armies in fronts is better)."

What do you mean by "backup HQ rolls"?

When you have a multi-HQ chain of command, any roll you need to take for Initiative, or combat may be re-rolled (if the first one fails) by the next higher HQ in the command chain.

So if you have STAVKA as your HQ, and you need to roll some check, there is no backup HQ if you fail, because you have no other HQs in your chain of command.

If, however, you have an Army HQ, a Front HQ, and STAVKA, if the Army fails, the Front can roll for you, and if the Front fails then STAVKA can roll for you. The odds go down after the first HQ, but one of the playing points of the Soviets is that you can put your few GOOD commanders into the Fronts, making the Fronts the place that can really change your command rolls.

So for Fulkerson, start your HQ replacements with your Fronts. Put the best commanders you can in your fronts NOW.