Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[princep01]

CR, I am sure you are aware of the downside to an attack in the Kuriles. I think the Japanese get land reinforcements and the landing will advance the Kamakaze start date. It is a nice division aganst an opponent that is already wobbling from some stiff punches, but would it be better to make the "division" something more subtantial, like a move on one of the Marianna Islands, If KB is engaged in the DEI, a landing there would become a real possibility as he cannot have much in the area at this point. I realize that 41st is not prepped for the Mariannas, but waiting two weeks to get some prep in and then initiating the venture will have it 30-40% prepped by the time it lands against.....well....probably nothing.

[Canoerebel]

Princep, thanks for the comments.

I've invaded the Kuriles before and dealt with the triggered reinforcements. That invasion ultimately failed after a bloody campaign, so I know the potential problems. As for the kamikazes, I traditionally disregard that in making decisions - if a plan makes sense I won't allow the kamikaze factor to sway the decision. Just a personal preference.

All things considered, I favor a strong lodgement in the Kuriles to one in the Marshalls. There are many factors that enter into my preference, so I won't go into them in detail, but a few are: prep, proximity, shipping readily available, a direct hit near Japan's vitals that Japan cannot afford to ignore. That said, there are good reasons to select some other target, as you note, so I'll evaluate several others - Wake, the Marshalls, and the Coral Sea periphery.

[Canoerebel]

3/3/42

Singapore Bombardment: I learned a few things with the Allied bombardment raids on the enemy troops at Singapore. First, the bombardments weren't particularly effective. Essentially no troops destroyed. Whether it has a meaningful effect on enemy supply I have no idea. Second, my CA bombardment group, led by Exeter, remained on station and bombarded both a.m. and p.m. This was a surprise, because my bombardment TFs always reset to combat missions after the initial bombardment (as did the Royal Sovereign TF that hit Singapore during the p.m. phase). Don't know why the Exeter TF performed differently. An enemy combat TF turned up just east of Mersing, possibly serving to protect troops inbound to that port. I'm leaving the Exeter group at Singapore tonight, while the Royal Sovereign group retires to Batavia. In addition to testing bombardment effectiveness, this raid served another purpose. By revealing Sovereign and a bunch of cruisers, I'm raising the ante a bit...but not too much. I think Steve will adjust his force composition to meet the elevated threat, but the Allies have about seven battleships on the way, so I think I can counter his ante effectively.

Singapore Air Battle: 180 Allied fighters met several hundred Japanese strike aircraft and escorts. Most of the escorts were Oscars, but there were two groups of Zeros. The overall tally was 96 Japanese aircraft downed to 35 for the Allies. I'm leaving the fighters in place tomorrow, hoping to draw another attack that might be aimed at the Exeter TF. Over the course of the past months, the Allies have achieved at least four decisive air ambushes over Singapore, a more or less direct benefit of the situation in the DEI.

Singapore on the Ground: 6th Guards Division arrived, boosting the IJ AV to about 3,000. That's seven IJ divisions accounted for at the moment (two here and five at Clark Field), and this is one of the two "extra" Scenario Two divisions that arrive at Saigon in February. Allied forts at Singapore are stuck at 3.87, but I'm hoping the fighter protection might buy a few days to get that level up to four.

Westeren DEI: Two more Aussie brigades are unloading at Benkolen (though I'll have to finish unloading the big stuff at Oosthaven). Once these troops are in place, this base's AV should be roughly 600, which is close to the objective. Palembang, Oosthaven, Prabaemolith and Djambi are already at their targeted AVs, so that leaves Padang as the major focus now. It has about 130 AV and could use perhaps 500.

India: Marine raiders arrived at Bombay, boosting the AV there to 750 and bringing the Allies some piece of mind. This is the first of many American combat units on the way to India. An Indian brigade arrived at Lahore. This may go to Padang, though I have to weigh the political point cost.

China: The Japanese maneuver to threaten the three bases centered on Siangtan is still ongoing. It probably seems to Steve like it's taking forever to get his troops in place...and it is.

Luzon: No attack at Clark; I bet it falls tomorrow. There will be great rejoicing in the enemy camps, but also great consternation due to the prolonged (and in my opinion totally unnecessary) vortex that occurred here.

These are the Voyages: an update on some Allied units -

CV Lexington: After sprinting west towards Wake Island at the start of the war, this ship ambushed a big TF of IJ oilers north of Midway Island. From there, Lex patroled in the Gulf of Alaska and the Berring Sea, looking for opportunities to ambush enemy shipping bound for Amchitka Island. In January 1942, Lex and Saratoga steamed south to Tahiti, followed by Yorktown and Enterprise. After brief calls to that port, the ships moved south of New Zealand to Melbourne. They then continued around Oz to a point south of Soerabaja. At that point, they participated in the successful ambush of a Mini KB supporting the IJ invasion of Dempasar. Now Lex is on the way to Colombo to upgrade. She's traveled much of the world and has done important duty.

CL Boise: After making good her escape from the Philippinans at war's dawn, this cruiser joined Force Z for a big naval battle just off Singkawang. We do know that this battle, while tactically a draw with serious damage inflicted to both sides, halted the enemy invasion of this port, thus greatly aiding the Allies in the Fortress Palembang development. Boise took moderate damage and retired for repairs at Melbourne. From there, she rejoined the Allied navy in the DEI, taking part in action with the Mini KB at Denpasar. She also participated in the just completed bombardment of the IJ troops at Singapore.

[kfsgo]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

3/3/42

Singapore Bombardment: I learned a few things with the Allied bombardment raids on the enemy troops at Singapore. First, the bombardments weren't particularly effective. Essentially no troops destroyed. Whether it has a meaningful effect on enemy supply I have no idea. Second, my CA bombardment group, led by Exeter, remained on station and bombarded both a.m. and p.m. This was a surprise, because my bombardment TFs always reset to combat missions after the initial bombardment (as did the Royal Sovereign TF that hit Singapore during the p.m. phase). Don't know why the Exeter TF performed differently. An enemy combat TF turned up just east of Mersing, possibly serving to protect troops inbound to that port. I'm leaving the Exeter group at Singapore tonight, while the Royal Sovereign group retires to Batavia. In addition to testing bombardment effectiveness, this raid served another purpose. By revealing Sovereign and a bunch of cruisers, I'm raising the ante a bit...but not too much. I think Steve will adjust his force composition to meet the elevated threat, but the Allies have about seven battleships on the way, so I think I can counter his ante effectively.

While the physical impact might not be great, I'd put money on disruption being at least locally significant - if nothing else it'll probably buy you a day or two. Whether that's enough to be worth the risk of doing it again...

[Canoerebel]

Not a great risk at the moment since the KB is far away (no closer than the Solomon Islands).

I don't think Steve will attack Singapore until he gets a few more infantry units at the scene. I think he'll want ovewhelming force given his recent experience at Clark Field combined with his inability to control the air over Singapore.

[JohnDillworth]

First, the bombardments weren't particularly effective. Essentially no troops destroyed.

How much aerial recon did you do on Singapore? A couple days of recon seem to make a big difference. Don't know what you are bombarding with but you should have a few spotter planes. Additionally use patrol aircraft to recon.
might help

[Fishbed]

Good luck Canoerebel, I'd be very excited too in your situation. But no CAP is bomber-proof, unfortunately, especially this early in the war. I hope your gambit will succeed anyway Getting the boys out of reach afterwards won't be easy...

edit: ouch that was for the previous page, didn't see there was an update since then, my bad [:D]

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, I know that CAP is very porous in AE, but I was nearly certain that Steve would not expect this move and would not have his bombers, which are currently hitting Singapore day after day, configured for naval strike purposes as their priority mission.

[Fishbed]

Wouldn't it be wiser for him to put naval strike as first or second priority, if you intend to pound Sings anyway? I mean, be it at CAP-trap or not, you're going in, so whatever...

[Canoerebel]

Sure, it would make sense for the Japanese player to have his strike aircraft set to Naval first with bombing Singapore as the alternative mission. But Steve's been pounding Singapore for several months now with no shot at any Allied vessels, so he had fallen deeply into the routine and hadn't thought to change it. I think alot of us would do likewise. I bet he changes it now, but I'm hoping that the combination of Allied CAP and fatigue/morale impact on Japanese aircraft due to yesterday's losses will enable the CA Exeter TF to remain at Singapore without trouble. I may move them next turn (or definately will if bad things happen).

[John 3rd]

I've recently bombarded Lew twice with BBs and each time they stayed all day. Darned near had a heart attack. Thankfully my LR CAP kept the bad guys at bay. Really surprised me too.

Does anyone know why the Bombardment TF occasionally (for no apparent reason) stay on-site?

[ny59giants]

Does anyone know why the Bombardment TF occasionally (for no apparent reason) stay on-site?

I have had the same thing happen to me. And you know my OCD-ness, so I double or triple check my settings. [;)]I have to look for it as I have a back up file of each turn in progress. IMO, there is a glitch in the AI to cause this.

[Canoerebel]

3/4/42

Eastern DEI: O-21 puts three torps into CVE Taiyo two hexes north of Kendari, but she doesn't go under. I have this weird feeling that this ship is going to somehow survive, but I'll keep my eyes on the "aircraft ground loss" charts the next few days. The Japanese are reconning Semereng (likely landing point on Java when the time comes) and flying sweep missions from Denpassar to Soerabaja. My Dutch Hurricane unit has given better than it's taken, but it's about out of aircraft.

Western DEI: For the second consecutive day, the Allies win the air battle over Singapore. The Japanese lose 50 aircraft to 35 for the Allies. If I can hold the Japanese off for a another three or four days, forts go to four (I won't decimate my fighters doing so, but I think Steve will back off for a few days to marshal overwhelming force). The CA Exeter group remains around Singapore without being molested, providing cover for two xAKs bringing in supply. There is a TON of Allied shipping moving in and out of Oosthaven/Benkolen right now.

Western Sumatra: I am proceeding with the invasion of western Sumatra unless something happens in the next three days to change my mind. The main unit - 27th Indian Division - will take three days to stand down from strat to combat mode. Then I'll pay political points and embark the division on transports. I might invade Sabang directly, or I might go for the port to the east (Langsa?). I'm not sure what's at either base, though I think the defenses are light. I do know I should be able to clobber the ports with battleships and I might use my carriers for CAP and bombing runs. I want Sabang for three reasons - reopen my air-staging route from India (it's still open, but precarious and much more convoluted than if I had Sabang), rattle my opponent, and give me more units to use in Sumatra (I might end up dividing the unit, moving around a bit, and then eventually withdrawing them or air transporting them forward to eastern Sumatra).

Luzon: No attack at Clark Field, but I'm nearly positive it will fall tomorrow. That will free up ground troops and lots of bombers, so I'll have to be careful around the front lines (Singapore).

Enemy Carriers: My assessment is that Steve won't venture forward in a major way until the KB is present. Right now, the KB is probably around the mid Solomons after retiring from the Fiji invasion. Steve may, or possibly won't, await availability of the Luzon troops. So I'd say I have a minimum of ten days (allowing for refueling) and a maximum of 30 days before I face a weighted punch. Although I'm not certain which enemy Mini KB carriers are sunk and which are merely severely damaged, I do know that three CVL and a CVE are out of commission for the coming battle in the DEI. The Allies will soon have Formidable, making four USN carriers, two RN carriers, and one RN CVL. (Hornet may be six to eight weeks away from theater.) The Allies can't go head-to-head with the KB...unless Steve makes a mistake and allows the Allies to combine carrier air and LBA in an advantageous way. By no means am I counting on such a situation arising, but I will keep it in the back of my mind. At some point, I think the Allies will want to weight the possibility of a massive combat TF/carrier TF raid on either the KB or enemy transports carrying an invasion force to Sumatra.

[Canoerebel]

3/5/42

Game of Chicken in China: The Japanese troops are finally arriving at the hex I've been expecting them at since the war began - the hex adjacent to the Allied bases at Changsha, Siangtan, and Henyang. Now comes a big game of chicken. The Japanese can choose to attack one of these hexes with overwhelming force, but if I guess right and adequately defend the target hex, the Japanese army gets a big bloody nose. If Japan guesses right and manages to take any of these hexes, the Allied MLR is broken. So this is a game with high stakes. The Allies have 10,000 AV distributed between the three cities. I think Japan probably has 6,000 or 7,000 AV. A Japanese attack across the river towards either Henyang or Siangtan will result in an auto shock attack. These bases also don't have favorable terrain. So most of my AV has to be divided between those two bases (Henyang has five forts, Siangtan is almost at four). Steve might try to cross me up by moving on Changsha, but I can reinforce from Siangtan before he could attack since it's not an auto shock attack (it's not across the river). Also, Changsha has six forts and light urban terrain. So I'll probably divide my forces as follows: 4,000 AV Henyang (5 forts), 4,000 AV Siangtan (nearly 4 forts), 2,000 AV at Changsha (6 forts).

Eastern DEI: Lots of IJ shipping at Makassar and Kendari and no sign of CVE Taiyo going under.

Western DEI: Still tons of Allied shipping at Benkolen and Oosthaven, bringing in lots of Australian troops. Here are the current defense levels: Palembang 1399 (4.01 forts); Oosthaven 1040 (3.18); Benkolen 361 (2.62); Prabaemolith 181 (2.99); Djambi 75 (2.13), and Padang 142 (2.56). Adjustments will lower Oosthaven to about 800 and raise Benkolen to about 600. Several more Aussie units are about to arrive, which will boost both of those two bases. I think that will be enough for every base in eastern Sumatra except Padang, so from now on I'll concentrate my efforts on beefing up its garrison.

Singapore: The Japanese tried night bombing, but it was ineffective (this is the first night-bombing raid an opponent has tried in any of my three AE matches). The lack of IJ bombing for the past few days (as a result of the Allied fighter ambushes) allowed forts to go to 3.89. If I can nudge that up to 4 I'll be satisfied. Two xAKs are unloading supply, which now stands at 29k. There is Japanese shipping at Mersing, undoubtedly protected by large combat ships. The American carriers are south of Benkolen. I've thought about steaming them to a point just south of Sumatra, but the range for bombers would be extreme at seven hexes. I've also thought about offloading my strike aircraft. I haven't made a decision yet.

India: It's actually 20th Indian Division that's prepping for Sabang at Bombay. This unit will be ready for combat loading in two days. I'm still inclined to proceed with this invasion.

Japanese Carriers: No sign of the KB since it departed Fiji to the northwest, but any sane gambler would bet everything he had that the Japanese carriers will next appear in the DEI - most likely Steve will try to pounce on some vulnerable Allied shipping closest to his LBA. I'll have to clear my front lines (Singapore, Oosthaven, Batavia, Soerabaja) in about a week and rely on picket ships to provide warning for areas I deem safe - the Indian Ocean south of Sumatra).

[Canoerebel]

Here's the situation in China. There is a chance the Japanese can break through by concentrating all their power (roughly 6k to 7k AV) at one hex and catching too few Chinese in that hex. However, I should be able to configure my defenses to stand against the initial assault and then to quickly reinforce the target hex from the other two hexes. I don't think 7k Japanese AV could overcome 4k Chinese AV behind 4 or 5 forts in just one turn. That's what I'm counting on.

There is a chance that a Japanese shock attack might fail, badly mauling the IJ stack. If so, the Japanese might find themselves in a very precarious situation. The Allies would then have roughly 10k AV coming after perhaps 5k Japanese AV that was in the open in bad shape.

Also, I think the Chinese currently outnumber the dispersed Japanese garrisons in northern China (I think Steve has siphoned off alot for his Changsha offensive). If the Japanese take a licking on the Changsha front, the Chinese in northern China will go on the offensive. I can concentrate a big army relatively quickly to threaten Loyang, Sinyang, or Ichang.

None of these events may transpire, but it's what I'm keeping an eye on.

[Bullwinkle58]

The 10,000 word picture.

I like to watch poker on TV, play rarely, but I'd say he would be really betting badly to take either cross-river option. Changsha also offers retreat routes down two decent road hexes, has a refit/rebuild urban hex at Wuchang if he gets clocked.

Where the poker comes in is if he knows that you know that he knows . . . so you cheat some extra into the cross-river options, and he goes that way anyway. Or, you do, and he figures you will, so he goes for Changsha anyway. Or . . . Or . . .

Like a spaghetti western standoff in the street between Clint Eastwood and whomever, with the evil extra Mexican badguy up on a roof with a rifle.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a question for you.

Say I leave 2,000 AV at Changsha...and the Japanese then move 6,000 AV into the hex.

Can I move my reinforcements from Siangtan (the adjacent hex across the river) into Changsha via combat mode without triggering a shock attack? Or am I screwed? If I'm screwed, then I bet that's what he's up to.

[Canoerebel]

Wait, I think the shock attack determination is based upon the ratio between what I already have in the hex and what I'm moving across the river into the hex. So I'm not screwed.

Also, the Japanese do have to leave a few troops behind to guard the rear lines. So he's not going to have his complete army.

[witpqs]

I hope I'm right about this, but as you already own the base, I think there would be no shock attack for you.

[Cribtop]

And further, is there a shock attack at all to cross a hex side you control? I would assumed not but it's a question worth knowing the answer to...