Empire of the Rising Lemon? SqzMyLemon (Japan) v Smeulders (Allies)

[SqzMyLemon]

On an economic note I'm finding I'm transporting fuel out of Singapore to the Home Islands faster than I can restock it with fuel and oil from Palembang. I may have to redirect some tankers from the Home Islands to Sumatra. Right now I'm running at tanker capacity and with the planned fuel expenditure for my upcoming operations I'm going to have to maximise my efficiency. Currently only fuel/oil from Sumatra is shipped to Japan. I may end up diverting two 100k+ fuel runs to Truk rather than to Japan, this will have the benefit of stockpiling fuel for the Central Pacific and give Singapore more time to stock up once again.

Balikpapan and Tarakan supply DEI bases as well as Babeldoab and Truk. I'm loath to use my largest tankers around The Celebes as Allied subs are always on patrol here.

On PH. With fort levels at impregnable levels by now I'll require at least a 7:1 AV advantage over the defenders. Understanding this, I believe this changes the objective from directly assaulting PH to one of blockade/isolation and neutralizing before an assault is attempted. This will require an operation consisting of many phases over months. Each phase will be designed to mutually support the other and provide the building blocks for each successive phase and ultimately...victory?

Blockade will require nothing gets in or out of PH by a cordon of air and naval vessels for an extended period of time. Isolation will require the possible capture of secondary bases within air transfer range of PH to prevent cycling of replacement squadrons and resupply. Neutralizing will be required to prevent enemy assets located at PH or elsewhere from effectively engaging Japanese forces. I'll begin to address these issues hopefully in the way Nemo has suggested and my plan of battle will begin to formulate by refining my requirements and eliminate those ideas that do not ultimately support the stated objective. I also need to start posing questions on what the enemy will be expected to do and how I will prepare to neutralize their efforts. This will help determine the exact phasing, force commitments and timetable.

An action of this type will need to be a combined operations approach and one in which the landing of support and engineer units will ultimately overshadow the combat component, especially in the first phases. Ports and airfields will need to be expanded, provisions made for keeping surface ships rearmed for extended periods of time. Repair and replenishment of air units. A siege approach means combat troops can be phased in over a period of time which will allow staging of transport requirements to managable levels. I will not have to have all my eggs in one basket nor one huge armada. The list goes on.

I am obviously not schooled in the methods that Nemo has suggested, but I will do my best to follow the guidelines he's posted here and elsewhere. I need to understand why I am doing something and plan accordingly based on thorough analysis. I have to create a situation where each piece of the puzzle will add to the whole and shape the battle in the direction I want it to take. It's not enough to say I'll grab this many divisions, this many aircraft and this many ships and send them to PH, I need to know why they are there, what is their purpose and how do I get them to accomplish their objectives.

Ramblings to many I'm sure. If anything, this certainly has me engaged at the moment. The main point is I'm the one determining my course of action, I'm not having my actions dictated by my opponent...that will come later. [:D]


One question. An airbase of level 9 or higher allows the basing of unlimited aircraft, but is their use still limited to the amount of air support at the base? For example, if 1000 aircaft are located at PH, can they all still be effective if there's only 250 AV support or does overstacking still apply to exceeding the support levels? I'll look and see what the manual says as well.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I'm trying to wrap my head around this. I definitely see the distinction you're pointing out. Less questions to start, as I answer them individually they will lead to more questions.

So, to answer first what is strategically important enough to FORCE the Allied player to fight at this stage of the game? I see only one...Hawaii. Hawaii, if taken or neutralized, offers me the most opportunity for further disrupting and inflicting losses on the Allies. No other area on the map would require commitment of Allied naval assets in it's defence, or cause enough of a shift from an offensive to defensive stance by the Allies.

How'd I do? [:D]

Hi SqzMyLemon,

Sorry I'm late to the discussion, but hope to chime in here.

I'm glad you are looking for multiple opinions on strategically important goals for your game. It's important for you to compare and contrast other players' opinions (that's all they are, really) with your experiences in your game. Good on you for asking, but trust yourself too-don't take others' word for it verbatim. One man's 'only valid strategy' may be another's poorly thought alternative. Decide for yourself.

As regards Hawaii, my opinion is that Hawaii becomes decreasingly valuable to the Allies as the game progresses. Sure, it would be a major annoyance for an Allied player to lose Hawaii in mid 1943. But, if they had Johnston, Midway, Wake (?), Fiji, Tahiti, Christmas is., Palymrya built up to maximum and well situated, then Hawaii becomes less important. Hawaii is valuable at your stage of the game, but not irreplaceable.

Would he come out and fight for Hawaii? Maybe. Probably. Is it strategically critical that he do so? Probably not.

If I were Allies, I would welcome an attack on Hawaii in mid-1943. If I can fix you in place with your long-term commitment to something on my terms (such as Hawaii), which is much closer to my LOS than yours, that's an advantage to me. If you take all bases on all the Hawaiian islands (an extremely difficult task with your available OOB), you've now set up a great submarine hunting ground for me and also helped develop a fertile hunting ground where I may pick off transport TFs as they ingress or egress.

If you don't take all bases in the Hawaiian islands, then you're feeding the war of attrition-one that is increasingly arrayed against you. USAAF versus IJAAF, USNAF versus IJNAF. Eventually the math on this goes against you, particularly with his upgraded aircraft capabilities.

I'll comment below in the discussion too.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Hmmm, didn't see that option. I think at this stage a mere threat of invasion wouldn't necessarily mean the Allies had to commit their fleet in it's defence. I believe my opponent would wait until I had boots on the ground to determine whether to commit his fleet or not. A large invasion force consisting of multiple divisions, LBA and the bulk of my fleet would tell him it was a serious attempt at taking Hawaii. If he learns I've tried to fool him into commiting his fleet against a bogus invasion he'll simply rely on attrition from his submarines, LBA and whatever combat ships were at hand and wait for me to retire before striking back.

So, if I go for Hawaii...I'm all in [8D].

But you can't be 'all in' without neglecting your other considerable defensive obligations in the SoPac, IMO.

So you can't be all in. So Hawaii is out.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

The next questions to myself. I'll have to think of a codename for this operation at some point as well.

What are the defences and enemy forces located in the Hawaiin Islands?

Answer: I don't know.

How do I find out?

Answer: Glenn equipped submarines or LBA recon. I have no bases within range so I have to use submarines.

What does PH have in the way of CD defences and minefields?

Answer: Open an Allied game and look at the CD units based at PH and the minefield concentrations to get a benchmark.

What air units, LCU's and ships are present?

Answer: Learn through recon.

I'm looking at a 2-3 month window to prep for this invasion. Currently PH is not a rear echelon base, which I would prefer, as that may mean it is weakly held with the majority of LCU's, ships and air units forward. I will ask myself more questions when I learn a little about what is currently at or not at PH. Right now the priority for me is to utilize my submarine force to gather as much intelligence as possible.

What can I prepare in the meantime?

Answer: I can start stockpiling fuel/supplies.

This is going to take monumental planning [X(].

In my opinion, full recon of the Hawaiian islands is the only thing separating folly from even the possibility of limited victory. You've simply GOT to know what he's got where, when and why.

I doubt the Glen subs will be up to the task by themselves. Would you consider LBA based on, say, Johnston or French Frigate? Sure, it may tip your hand, but you've got to know.

Midget subs may (transiently) help too. You get a fair amount of information about ships in port if you can get a midget sub into the port. Right up until the point where they get depth charged to oblivion or stuck in the net, so watch closely.

A thought: I'll be a naughty boy here an lay out a thought for you...

1. You need recon of the Hawaiian islands to effectively conquer them.
2. You can't get good recon of the Hawaiian islands without regular LBA recon overflights.
3. You can't recon the hell out of Hawaii without tipping your hand.
4. You don't have any LBA in range that can get you reliable recon.

With this in mind, an educated guess may be in order. Assume that his forces on some of the outlying islands will be minimal, and that three IDs apiece could overwhelm any (likely) base forces he has on hand.

In other words, assume victory in the absence of perfect knowledge. Go where you think your assumption warranted. Brazen? Yes. Foolhardy? Don't think so-especially if you are convinced about your desire to capture the Hawaiian islands.

A sudden seizure of the outlying (non-Oahu) islands with a minimum of recon would be a surprise! You could turn the surprise to your advantage and gain your needed LBA recon base(s) too, getting a more complete picture about Oahu.

If Oahu proves to be stacked to high heaven with transitting LCUs, you'd best leave-you can't outlast near infinite supplies on the island at that point. If not, then prepare for phase II of your conquest if that's how you want to roll. But now you can make the decision from an educated position that was heretofore lacking.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
For example, if 1000 aircaft are located at PH, can they all still be effective if there's only 250 AV support

That's my understanding.

[SqzMyLemon]

Chickenboy, thank you for posting!

First off I really appreciate you taking the time to catch up and post to offer your suggestions. Second, I swear we think along the same lines at times.

It's been a slow day at work and I was starting to put in writing my next update and a comprehensive "where am I at" at this stage of the thinking process. As Nemo pointed out, it's not the time for me to make any decisions, but ask questions and arrive at a course of action that way. I've started to do just that. Here's what I came up with today, just realize it's in rough form and by no means complete:

Taking a few days to not post on any ideas that enter my mind about a Pearl Harbor operation and just thinking about what I'd like to accomplish, I've come up with a few things.

First off, I want to bring the Allied Fleet to battle, set back the Allied offensive capabilities by 4-6 months and use the time to strengthen the Empire. I've already determined that I can only do so by threantening a major strategic target and I've determined at this stage, it has to be Hawaii. Initially, I felt the capture of Pearl Harbor would be necessary to accomplish this. thinking on it for a few days, I don't think that a direct assault is required, nor realistic to accomplish at this time. I think capturing the rest of the Hawaiian Islands could accomplish the same goal and require far fewer combat LCU's than attempting to capture PH directly. If the goal is to inflict naval losses on the Allies and strengthen my perimeter, the number of LCU's I would require would mean an actual net weakening of my overall defences, stripping my already thin forces further, in order to commit the strength necessary. The "threat" of an actual invasion of Pearl Harbor still means the Allies have to react or "eventually" lose the base and accomplishes the same goal. Now how to do so?

I believe this would require four phases.

1. Intelligence
2. Isolation
3. Neutralization
4. Assault

Phase 1 - Intelligence

I'll be completely unprepared for any eventuality unless I learn some hard facts as to what I'm facing. How do I accomplish this? Submarine recon is a start, but neither guaranteed of success. Can I remain on station indefinitely? What if my submarines are sunk? What if my Glenn's are shot down? I'll still be blind.

Can I provide a better source of intelligence? Yes, capture bases within LBA range of Pearl Harbor.

Phase 2 - Isolation

How can I isolate PH? By capturing the adjacent Hawaiian, Midway, Jonhston, Palmyra and Christmas Islands, I can isolate PH from the rest of the Pacific. The only direct route to PH would be from the American West Coast, Aleutians or Alaska. Sitting astride the LOC to Hawaii and Australia could bring the Allied fleet out prior to the need to invest the Hawaiian Islands directly. Can Hawaii be further isolated? Invade the Aleutians?

Phase 3 - Neutralization

Neutralization of PH as a base of operations for Allied operations in the Central Pacific. This phase would require the systematic destruction of the port and airbase capacity. How does Japan accomplish this? By seizing the surrounding Islands and building airbases from which to launch sustained air attacks in order to win air superiority over the Hawaiian Island chain. How can Pearl Harbor be further neutralized? By expanding ports to allow rearming of, and the ability to remain on station, of surface ships for ongoing naval operations to blockade and bombard PH's facilities and defences. Also to interdict the Allied LOC directly to PH. Can this be accomplished despite the poor overall performance of Japanese LBA in a strategic/suppression role? How dangerous are the CD units based at PH?

Phase 4 - Assault

The "eventual" assault on Pearl Harbor can only be attempted once phase one and two are succesfull and only if PH's defenders are not truly loaded. If phase one and two are succesful however, an actual assault of PH need not be required if the Allied Fleet sorties prior and is defeated. Only if the Allied Fleet has been defeated and the defending LCU's are deemed vulnerable can a direct assault on PH still be contemplated.

An invasion of Midway, Johnston, Palmyra and Christmas Island's may mean Allied surface ships will be committed to their defence. If a battle ensues and Japan's forces are victorious, that will accomplish the primary goal of bringing the Allied Fleet to battle and defeating it. If the Allied Fleet is not committed I still advance my goal set out in phase 1, that of isolating PH. I also gain some important benefits. I further expand my perimeter. I shorten my own LOC by providing an additional supply or fuel stockpiling location and will increase my naval search/recon capabilities. I can also interdict any number of Allied LOC's to PH with surface ships, aircraft and submarines from these locations.

Now what if taking these bases doesn't in fact weaken but strengthen PH's defences? Since the goal is to also delay an Allied Advance, any troops/aircraft/ships and LCU's sent to PH can't be used against me in elsewhere until later. If I believe that the Allies will focus on strengthening PH over the other Hawaiian Islands, this in fact doesn't affect my phase 2, or to a lesser degree phase 3, operations.

That's as far as I got today. So looking at what I've written and what you have suggested that allows me to further look at what may be possible and a way to accomplish my goals. I definitely like the idea of either seizing the outlying Islands such as Johnston, Midway or Palmyra for search and recon purposes. I also agree that may tip my hand. I also like your idea of a surprise seizure of the outlying Hawaiian Islands with limited resources in order to gain the consistent recon I'll need to determine whether PH is indeed vulnerable. If not, I pull out. If it is weak, I can then look at completing phase 3.

I believe this has been a great day in terms of a step forward in my development [:D]. I can't thank you enough for your input. As you mentioned, ultimately it will be me deciding on my course of action, but that doesn't negate trying to make the best decision possible from as much discussion and informed input as possible. I think I have the abilities, but I agree, I do lack a certain confidence at times.

I'll work on more tonight, but really some questions are being posed that I know the answer to now. Other questions have raised some answers that show they can be eliminated from the equation. It looks to me now a hybrid approach might be highly succesful. Grab an outlying search base (Johnston or Midway would be ideal) to recon the Hawaiian islands, gather the necessary intel for a quick strike to pursue phase 3 and be in a position to gather the intel on PH to determine if phase 4 is worthwhile, and go from there.

Thanks again Chickenboy and Nemo for being receptive to my requests for input. If I didnt know better, I think there's the basis for a plan forming. [&o]

P.s. I guess I'll ask. If you think there is a very limited chance of a victory in some regards for a Hawaiian adventure, do you see another opportunity to hurt the Allies along these lines? A more limited offensive would be the Aleutians. At least I protect the northern approach to the Home Islands and perhaps draw out some Allied naval assets in their defence. The other alternative is to plan in the background and wait for the Allied advance to actually happen, then strike at the rear echelon. Nemo advocates this kind of operation in many posts, and I tend to agree that it has merit and can go a long way to creating a logistics nightmare for the Allies.

If anything, I try my Hawaii operation and providing my fleet isn't destroyed and if I just end up losing hundreds of aircraft and a few LCU's it may still be worthwhile. Who knows what the effect on my opponent may be. He may not react as hoped and the whole operation is a wash, or he may react and make mistakes and give me an opening. He's not been tested to this point, who knows how he'll react. I definitely learned that I'll never know unless I try something audacious. And if nothing else, I get practice going straight into the lion's den and seeing if I can manage this on a tactical level. It's all good in other words. [;)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
P.s. I guess I'll ask. If you think there is a very limited chance of a victory in some regards for a Hawaiian adventure, do you see another opportunity to hurt the Allies along these lines? A more limited offensive would be the Aleutians. At least I protect the northern approach to the Home Islands and perhaps draw out some Allied naval assets in their defence. The other alternative is to plan in the background and wait for the Allied advance to actually happen, then strike at the rear echelon. Nemo advocates this kind of operation in many posts, and I tend to agree that it has merit and can go a long way to creating a logistics nightmare for the Allies.

If anything, I try my Hawaii operation and providing my fleet isn't destroyed and if I just end up losing hundreds of aircraft and a few LCU's it may still be worthwhile. Who knows what the effect on my opponent may be. He may not react as hoped and the whole operation is a wash, or he may react and make mistakes and give me an opening. He's not been tested to this point, who knows how he'll react. I definitely learned that I'll never know unless I try something audacious. And if nothing else, I get practice going straight into the lion's den and seeing if I can manage this on a tactical level. It's all good in other words. [;)]

I think there's a limited chance for victory in regards to your Hawaiian adventure. You will probably provoke some of the action that you seek, but I think you're in an increasing disadvantage insofar as your relative strength to the Allies. A 'final battle' in mid-1943 benefits the Allies even at even odds. BUT...if you sought a final battle you may as well roll the dice now versus watching your strength atrophy over the next two years.

Don't be surprised if you get a bunch of your fleet burned...a long ways from home, SqzMyLemon. I know-not very uplifting to be sure, but it's what I would expect.

[Chickenboy]

SqzMyLemon,
 
I apologize for smoking crack 'on the job'.  I went back to some of your previous posts and reviewed the date of your game.  I was way off in my assumptions.  You're only in October 1942.  This changes my opinion.  If paints your position in a more positive light vis a vis the Allies.  I'm not so sanguine regarding your odds for success.  He's still many months away from good, solid naval reinforcements.
 
Roll the dice.

[SqzMyLemon]

The proverbial clock is definitely ticking. I want to put this operation into effect in two to three months, before the first Essex class carriers begin to arrive and the Allies grow too strong in general. I understand I'll be committing my navy up against an intact American Fleet and no doubt strong air defences in Hawaii. I will have to rely on a superior plan, tactics and of course luck. I hope to throw something at my opponent that he did not plan for.

It is indeed...time to take a chance and roll the dice, or for you roulette fans out there...put everything down on one spin and hopefully she comes up number 4.

I plan on prepping units for targets all over the map. Obviously I'll try and confuse the Allies as to my real intentions. To that end I think prepping for anything in India is clearly going to be seen as a bluff. However, North and Northeastern Australia, New Caledonia, Santa Cruz Islands, Fiji, Aleutians and islands in the Central Pacific including a few Hawaiian Islands are all viable targets at this stage. There's not much I can do about Allied intelligence other than take a chance my true targets will be thought of as nothing but pure bluff.

I'm off to start looking at just how the heck I'm going to start preparing my forces for this operation and continue to evolve my strategy based on questioning everything I can think of. Right now, the monumental task of logistics is going to be the main area of focus in terms of actual gameplay. I'm no where near a plan yet and I still have much to dwell on.

Another area I can focus on in game terms is getting my defences organized in New Guinea, the Solomons and the DEI. If I strike at Hawaii, I'm pretty sure the Allies will not only counter at the point of attack, but launch a series of local offensives in these theatres to take advantage of my fleet being in the Central Pacific.

[SqzMyLemon]

Oct. 26/42:

Burma:

I split the 38th Division at Bhamo to start dealing with the picket units employed by Commonwealth forces. The 38th/C Division forces the 13th Burma Rifles BN back across the river into Katha after a deliberate attack in the jungle at 62,44. Japanese losses were only 25 troops, all disablements. The Allies suffered 4(8) infantry, 5(4) non-combat squad losses totalling 202 troops. Interestingly, the enemy unit was still in move mode despite occupying that hex for what seems like months. I'm not the only one bored and not paying attention [:D].


China:

Changsha's airbase is bombed daily to keep damage levels up to prevent the reconstruction of forts, cause supply hits and disrupt the defenders as much as possible. Despite heavy cloud cover, Changsha was hit hard by Ki-21-IIa Sally's (28) and Ki-51 Sonia's (54) for 6 AB, 2 ABS and 102 Runway hits. As much as I hate having so many bomber units limited to using the Sonia, results like these show they can be effective in China.

Japanese forces launched another deliberate attack against Changsha to keep the Chinese honest and eventually force the defenders to withdraw or be forced out. The odds were 1:2 and the forts were reduced to level 3. Chinese casualties were 49(128) infantry, 11(74) non-combat and 0(4) engineer squad losses totalling 1391 troops. Japanese forces suffered were 7(174) infantry, 7(289) non-combat and 0(12) engineer squad losses totalling 5138 casualties. Once again the number of squads actually lost are low despite the high casualty figures.

I'm not sure how I want to proceed at Changsha. I can't risk completely isolating the base as it leaves my forces vulnerable to a Chinese counterattack from Changteh and Chihkiang, yet I'd prefer to completely destroy the defenders. Completely surrounding and converting every hexside to Japanese control will just take too much time and require two river assaults. I don't want to remain tied up here for a long period of time with the Chinese making moves around Tuyun. If I send the 11th and 23rd Armies west before Changsha falls then I risk the base being reinforced or the railine cut at Hengyang. I have to determine if the move by Chinese forces out of Tuyun is a diversion or indeed an offensive to take Liuchow.

A deliberate attack by the 124th Inf. Rgt. at 73,53 forces another Chinese picket force back. For 19 casualties they destroy 5(0) infantry and 2(0) non-combat squads totalling 150 casualties to the 5th New Chinese/A Corps. Unfortunately the unit retreats directly along the road and is in a position to spot the 13th Army as it advances.

I now have to be careful with 13th Army and may order it to stop momentarily, as the next hex it enters will be adjacent to the enemy. If it's spotted the jig is up and it will give the Chinese time to react. The Chinese pickets are easily dealt with, but they do perform a valuable service in detecting any of my troop movements in adjacent hexes.

Southwest of Sining, I continue to bomb the 17th Chinese/B Corps. This unit threatens my supply path to Sining if it moves east, so the intention is to destroy it by air attack.

Miscellaneous:

Chiang Mai expands airfield to size 4
Toungoo expands airfield to size 4

DD Susuzuki arrives at Nagasaki/Sasebo

Oct. 27/42:

Sub Ops:

SC Ch 11 engages the SS S-36 near the Feni Islands after the submarine elects not to fire torpedoes, and launches a sustained DC attack. Not one near miss or direct hit! This submarine is picked up daily by air ASW and numerous ASW TF's are set to patrol to specifically hunt this submarine down. It's totally depressing that I can't get good combat results, time after time, when engaging Allied subs.

SS I-9 spots the DD Thracian near Noumea and launches 6 torpedoes. All miss as usual.

China:

Changsha's airbase hit again for 17 AB, 1 ABS and 59 Runway hits.

The 17th Chinese/B Corps. near Sining suffers another 6 destroyed squads totalling 37 casualties from air attack.

The 1st Ind. Inf. Gp. catches another Chinese picket force at 77,52. The 3rd New Chinese/B Corps is forced to retreat and suffers no loss. Once again another Allied unit in move mode. I figure it's not a mistake on my opponents part, I think he's doing his best to ensure these Chinese units are wiped out.

Japanese forces launch another deliberate attack against Sining. The odds were 1:2 and forts were reduced to level 2. Chinese forces suffered 7(58) infantry, 2(30) non-combat and 1(3) engineer squad losses totalling 727 troops. The Japanese suffered heavily in comparison with 10(291) infantry, 6(215) non-combat and 0(29) engineer squad losses totalling 3404 casualties. The 35th Division is trashed losing 150 AV. Despite the majority of the losses being disablements, this division is out of commision until reinforcements arrive. I want to take Sining quickly, but not at this kind of cost. I'll await the 12th Tank Rgt. and 27th Division and then maneuver to completely surround the base. The defenders either withdraw, or die.

Another deliberate attack against a Chinese picket force at 82,46 sees the 90th Inf. Rgt. only push back the Chinese 3rd Group Army. Chinese losses were 5(4) non-combat squads lost totalling 81 casualties. Japanese suffered no loss. The enemy's AV was 1 compared to 127 for the Japanese and the odds were 30:1. I'd really like to see these smaller units more easily destroyed then what the current combat model allows for. This unit obviously has no combat capability and yet it is only driven back. Just when does a unit cease being a unit? [8|]

So I continue to push back Chinese pickets and try to maintain pressure all along the front. I'm trying to maneuver for a large scale encirclement if possible. The priority is still to take Changsha, only then can I freely redeploy units to an assault on Tuyun. To do so any sooner could see Changsha reinforced, the railway cut and the losses I've recently suffered in attacking the base a waste. Not sure on the exact plans of the Chinese at this point, right now I think they are feinting at Liuchow in order to draw troops away from Changsha. I'll stick to the plan and await further developments before reacting. Once Changsha falls, I can quickly fortify, leave a strong enough garrison to delay any counter and move on Tuyun.

Miscellaneous:

Rahaeng expands airfield to size 5
Hengyang expands fortifications to size 2
Lautem expands fortifications to size 3

[SqzMyLemon]

With the end of October near I looked at what aircraft are coming online and made some factory adjustments. The Ki-43-IIa Oscar will now be available in November which will allow a few more Nate squadrons to upgrade. Ki-27 Nate pools are currently at 189 aircraft so I finally stopped production of this aircraft at Harbin, and switched the factory over to Ki-43-IIa Oscar production. A factory researching the Ki-43-IIa has been fully switched over to Ki-43-IIb research at 20(0). I have a second factory also researching the IIb, but this factory is still repairing so I'm receiving no research points. I'll keep expanding this particular factory as it will immediately switch to production.

The Irving also comes into production, but I'll determine whether to keep an R&D factory or switch over to production. As far as I remember, I don't have many air units that use this recon plane. I'll be sure to double check prior to the end of the month. I also believe the Ki-21-IIb Sally is due right away. Again, I need to look at Sally production and either convert straight to production, or switch to another aircraft while it's still in R&D mode.

Garrison units are outbound for Sumatra, Java and Timor to strengthen the defences. The 2nd Division has been recombined at Lae and will be earmarked for operations in the Hawaiian Islands. I'm deciding whether to reinforce PM as I've completely neglected the base to date. I'd rather defend the north coast of New Guinea and around Lae. Is PM a base that should be defended? The fact it's on the south coast makes reinforcement by sea extremely risky to air attack from the Australian mainland. Considering most of my bases are already within 4E range from Australia, PM doesn't seem that important to me from a defensive standpoint, nor as a potential Allied airbase. I should be able to suppress is initially anyway.

I still don't know what to do with the Wake CD unit. I'd obviously like to place it in a must invade base or one that controls a strait to be able to harass enemy shipping. So many choices. I may even deploy it in the Hawaiian Islands if the invasion is a go. Speaking of Hawaii, I have a Glen based submarine placed gathering intelligence on the base. Initial reports indicate five LCU's on Oahu, no reports on ship or aircraft numbers so far. I've decided to invade Johnston Island and set up a search base for direct recon of Pearl Harbor and hopefully pick up some Allied naval movements. Johnston being an Atoll, I'll designate strictly combat units to invade and deploy a BF later. Johnston will be a one-off operation, so I must hit fast and hard bringing everything I need in one go. I have not decided on whether to sortie the entire Combined Fleet for this operation in the hopes the Allies commit naval forces. My initial thought is my opponent will expect the operation to be a trap and will not risk his carriers. D-Day for the planned operation will be the end of November. Not much time to prep LCU's, but the sooner I get eyes in the sky over PH the better.

I believe the Allies have routed most of their TF's well to the south all game, and as Chickenboy has pointed out, PH may not be that important to my opponent. Still, if it's weakly held I believe it will pay dividends in Japanese hands. First Johnston Island, then I'll worry about PH.

The massive reorganization of my entire Empire continues and right now the preparations are overwhelming as I work on the next turn. Recon in Burma indicates Cox's Bazar currently has 51 fighters present. I'm planning a night air bombardment to be followed up by a 100 fighter sweep to see if I can catch the CAP as I did at Shwebo. Other than that, it should be another quiet turn.

[SqzMyLemon]

Oct. 28/42 pre-update

I had a rare chance to run the last turn over my lunch hour and disappointing sums it up. I'll post more when I go over the combat reports, but my bombing and sweep missions against Cox's Bazar did not go well. Off the top of my head I believe 27 Japanese aircraft were lost against only 6 Allied.

I truly do not understand how the air model works. There's no consistency and it seems coordination is the exception and not the rule. I'll post the results of this air action in greater detail later and ask for input. This isn't a rant, I'm just tired of watching my airplanes shot out of the sky following the replay, and later looking over the combat report and wondering why I got my ass handed to me when it seemed like my forces were not at a huge disadvantage. I'll be paying another visit to Lobaron's air co-ordination thread once again.

Weather was crappy and that is probably the culprit right there, but essentially I don't understand why a sweep of three Sentai's operating from two airbases, at the same altitude, under the same HQ all go in separately. My first Oscar sweep of 30+ aircraft was decimated by Allied CAP despite only 7 aircraft airborne at the time of the raid with a further 17 scrambling. The defending CAP then got the dive on my attacking sweepers which were 4k lower so it turned into a turkey shoot.

The second sweep of 25+ Oscar's, which once again outnumbered the defenders initially, performed poorly.

The third sweep of 30+ Tojo's got the dive on the defending CAP, unfortunately by this time only 5 enemy P-40K's scrambled.

A Tojo and Oscar Sentai were both based at Toungoo and these units never coordinated. Why did my Tojo's go in last to face the fewest CAP? Just how does the air model determine the order of attacks by multiple units that lose coordination? I have many more questions and I may post this particular report in the air thread or war room as well to get everyone's thoughts. Either way, I'll post the actual combat reports later and post my interpretation of what I'm reading and get input from others to see if I'm not reading the combat reports correctly.

On a happier note, two Allied ships were sunk by Japanese submarines today so it's not all bad. [:D]

More later.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
I also believe the Ki-21-IIb Sally is due right away. Again, I need to look at Sally production and either convert straight to production, or switch to another aircraft while it's still in R&D mode.

My opinion is that the Helen IIa is superior due to the armor. I apologize if this has been discussed before and therefore redundant, but it makes a difference in terms of airframe surviveability.

Is PM a base that should be defended? The fact it's on the south coast makes reinforcement by sea extremely risky to air attack from the Australian mainland. Considering most of my bases are already within 4E range from Australia, PM doesn't seem that important to me from a defensive standpoint, nor as a potential Allied airbase. I should be able to suppress is initially anyway.

I wouldn't give him PM on the cheap, nor would I give him Milne Bay on the cheap. A fully built PM is within extended range of Rabaul, so yes-it could be an annoyance to your Rabaul operations. If you can hold PM for several more months at comparatively limited cost, I'd recommend you look at it more closely.

Why not (slowly) build your infantry support there via air transport? It's unlikely he'll detect it, very unlikely he'll LRCAP it and you can bring it up to speed within a month or so by air transport, thereby mitigating some of the risk at shipborne reinforcement.

I still don't know what to do with the Wake CD unit. I'd obviously like to place it in a must invade base or one that controls a strait to be able to harass enemy shipping. So many choices. I may even deploy it in the Hawaiian Islands if the invasion is a go.

Interesting ideas. In February 1943, you'll get some unrestricted CD units from the mainland as well (at least two, IIRC), so you can always backfill with the Wake CD unit if you need it in the interim.

I have not decided on whether to sortie the entire Combined Fleet for this operation in the hopes the Allies commit naval forces.

If the Allies do rise to the bait, you should take pains to ensure that you have a big hammer there with which to hit them. Their great reaction MAY come at the invasion of Johnston, so I'd assume that they will come after you. Better to have too much force on hand versus insufficient force in this case, IMO.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
Off the top of my head I believe 27 Japanese aircraft were lost against only 6 Allied.

Bummer, dude. Please do post the details of your turn for us to look at.

Thanks!

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

My opinion is that the Helen IIa is superior due to the armor. I apologize if this has been discussed before and therefore redundant, but it makes a difference in terms of airframe surviveability.

I wouldn't give him PM on the cheap, nor would I give him Milne Bay on the cheap. A fully built PM is within extended range of Rabaul, so yes-it could be an annoyance to your Rabaul operations. If you can hold PM for several more months at comparatively limited cost, I'd recommend you look at it more closely.

Why not (slowly) build your infantry support there via air transport? It's unlikely he'll detect it, very unlikely he'll LRCAP it and you can bring it up to speed within a month or so by air transport, thereby mitigating some of the risk at shipborne reinforcement.

If the Allies do rise to the bait, you should take pains to ensure that you have a big hammer there with which to hit them. Their great reaction MAY come at the invasion of Johnston, so I'd assume that they will come after you. Better to have too much force on hand versus insufficient force in this case, IMO.

I love the Helen too, unfortunately the majority of my bomber units can only only upgrade to the Sally IIb. I only have one bomber unit currently equipped with the Helen Ia. PDU off remember. [;)] I think there are maybe two more that equip the IIa, but they are still in the reinforcement que.

I forgot about your earlier air transport suggestion for getting troops into PM. Best not make things any easier for him than I already have. I have the Topsy's available at Rabaul, just need to start shuttling the troops over. Can air transport still move the heavy equipment, or will that have to be shipped in? I expect an Allied move fairly soon in the Southeast Pacific as my opponent has hinted it's time for some new invasions.

As to Johnston, you are absolutely right. I hate falling into the trap of preparing for an operation and then to inadvertly bail on trying to accomplish it from poor force allocation. Time to remind myself what am I trying to accomplish. To entice the Allied Fleet out and defeat it. How was I going to accomplish that? Start moves in the Central Pacific that would put me into a position to eventually assault Pearl Harbor. By invading Johnston I also hope to draw out Allied naval vessels, so I'd better bring the darn Combined Fleet in case he shows up! Duh...sometimes I really am a dork. [:D]

Previously, I worried that I'd have to get in and out quickly at Johnston...again...dumb. The point is the Allies just might react how I'd like them to, so rather than rush something or skimp, it's best to go in prepared for any eventuality. As you said, nothing would be worse than having the Allied carriers show up and I have nothing available other than a spent bombardment and various amphibious TF's for them to feast on. Thank goodness I'm still in the "get my crap together" phase prior to making any decisions/plans.

[SqzMyLemon]

A quiet day at work so I'm bouncing ideas off the walls here.

Since I've decided to invade Johnston Island it occurred to me I should start trying to get the Allies to focus elsewhere. Two things have come to mind. A winter offensive in the Aleutians and offensive operations around Ndeni. I believe I can draw Allied strength to both regions which may weaken their dispositions around PH in time for my planned operations in the Hawaiian Islands.

Why the Aleutians in winter? I believe the Allies will do nothing in the Aleutians during winter, and my opponent has hinted as much in an e-mail. That being said, the Aleutians are also lightly defended with only Dutch Harbor and Umrak Island occupied and expanded. I'm thinking the Allies will not react to any offensive moves I make in this theatre until Spring, when conditions will improve. I see this operation as complimentary to my goal of buying time for the Empire and indirectly helping my offensive against PH. Do I want the Aleutians...no. Why move on them?

1. I hope to force the Allied start position for any northern offensive back hundreds of miles.
2. By attacking in winter, I may cause the Allies to start prepping units now for counterinvasion that were planned to be used elsewhere, namely the Southeast Pacific.
3. If the Allies ever did plan a northern thrust, this will clearly upset those plans.
4. If my Hawaiian Islands campaign is succesful, it might force the Allies to look north as a possible route to Japan which would now be much harder.

I have no clue on the effects of winter so first I should find out the penalties. Other than increased ship damage while operating in northern waters during winter, I don't know what the effect on LCU's or air units will be. I will commit minimal naval forces for this operation, namely surface ships and possibly a CVL or two. I'm not looking for the Aleutians to become a battlefield until the Spring. I want to use minimal force and gain my objectives quickly and then a slow buildup to draw more Allied assets in their recapture.

Why Ndeni now?

Originally, I intended to recapture Ndeni once it had fallen to Allied forces and then changed my mind. I felt it didn't offer anything to my overall defence nor was it worth losing shipping trying to take it back. In light of my planned operations in the Hawaiian Islands, I have rethought my opinion on Ndeni. Currently, the Allies are trying to sneak in support units while extricating the combat units that took the base, especially the paratroop Bn. At least that's what I think they are doing. The two APD's sunk during yesterdays turn were loaded with troops and they were en route to Ndeni, not simply withdrawing the forces currently there. That tells me the Allies want Ndeni on the cheap, but what if they are not willing to lose the base now?

If I counter amphib at Ndeni perhaps that will draw additional Allied units into securing it. If I commit just enough troops to recapture it, that may mean the Allies will then launch another amphib assault against the base committing more ships and assets to secure it. This could give me the chance to attrition Allied naval forces and draw strength away from the Hawaiian Islands. It will also focus attention away from the Central Pacific. If I'm wrong and the Allies abandon Ndeni, well as least I will learn that the base doesn't really figure into their plans to recapture the Solomons.

As I reorganize my forces I have numerous LCU's capabale of offensive operations sitting around doing nothing. The lack of territory I've taken means I definitely have forces at hand for operations for both the Aleutians and Ndeni operations. Naval guard and various SNLF units are available. I can even use a few garrison units to give me some teeth in holding onto these objectives.

I'm looking at also hitting Baker and Canton Islands, but here ask for opinions. My thoughts are that taking these islands will give the appearance of threatening the Allied LOC somewhat from PH to Fiji/Australia. I want to draw aircraft/LCU's/ships away from the Hawaiian Islands. How do you think an Allied player would react to losing these islands...would they move assets to strengthening surrounding Islands. Would they pull back? Would they reinforce Hawaii?

Thinking of my timeline I'm looking at a smash and grab of these Islands. Multiple invasion TF's to hit Baker, Canton and Johnston Islands simulataneously supported by the Combined Fleet. My thoughts are to have the Hawaiian invasion force fully ready at this stage as well. I fear a move on any of these islands and then a delay of months to move on Hawaii will give the Allies far too much time to reinforce directly at PH, even if PH isn't felt to be threatened directly. Essentially Johnston Island gives me a recon base to learn whether PH is weakly held and after a week of recon I should know all I need to know, I either move quickly or lose the element of surprise. The other bases will give me a land bridge to move air units quickly to the Hawaiian Islands when needed. I may hit one of the dot bases between PH and Midway to establish a seaplane base as well. Part of me feels Midway may be a threat to my LOC if I don't capture it, but I fear that would be more heavily defended than Johnston and require too much force commitment to capture quickly. Perhaps that can be a secondary target if operations against Hawaii go well.

What do you think? Possible? Over ambitious?

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

A quiet day at work so I'm bouncing ideas off the walls here.

Since I've decided to invade Johnston Island it occurred to me I should start trying to get the Allies to focus elsewhere.

Why? The purpose of your sortie to the waters near Hawaii is to draw the Allies into the 'decisive battle', isn't it? You want them to respond there and then with their available fleet, no? You want to make the argument that if they *don't* respond, then they will feel pain by loss of an important fleet base.

If they respond to your alternative landings / diversions, then they'll have forces involved in those responses. Will you be in an advantageous position to respond to those responses when and if they occur or will your units be sacrificed in the name of the diversion? Won't you then be sacrificing units for a diversion that you don't really want?

Two things have come to mind. A winter offensive in the Aleutians and offensive operations around Ndeni. I believe I can draw Allied strength to both regions which may weaken their dispositions around PH in time for my planned operations in the Hawaiian Islands.

Why the Aleutians in winter? I believe the Allies will do nothing in the Aleutians during winter, and my opponent has hinted as much in an e-mail. That being said, the Aleutians are also lightly defended with only Dutch Harbor and Umrak Island occupied and expanded. I'm thinking the Allies will not react to any offensive moves I make in this theatre until Spring, when conditions will improve. I see this operation as complimentary to my goal of buying time for the Empire and indirectly helping my offensive against PH. Do I want the Aleutians...no. Why move on them?

Aleutians / winter invasions after the expiration of your amphibious bonus with only partially prepped troops are murder. You should expect significant disruption, slow unloading and severely reduced combat effectiveness for your troops so engaged.

1. I hope to force the Allied start position for any northern offensive back hundreds of miles.
2. By attacking in winter, I may cause the Allies to start prepping units now for counterinvasion that were planned to be used elsewhere, namely the Southeast Pacific.
3. If the Allies ever did plan a northern thrust, this will clearly upset those plans.
4. If my Hawaiian Islands campaign is succesful, it might force the Allies to look north as a possible route to Japan which would now be much harder.

I have no clue on the effects of winter so first I should find out the penalties.Other than increased ship damage while operating in northern waters during winter, I don't know what the effect on LCU's or air units will be.

The effects of winter in this theatre are significant and will impede your landing, recovery of disruption and air activities, just like IRL.

Why not use the intervening Winter to fully prep forces for an Aleutian target or two. Land them the day after the winter penalty expires. You'll go a long way to reducing these two significant disadvantages.

In the meantime, you'll have some time to see how the main show goes. Beat the snot out of the Allies and capture Oahu? Where do you think he'll be looking to attack you next? The Aleutians / Northern route or Hawaii or elsewhere in SoPac?

Lose bad on the main show? You'll have to regroup and fall back. You want to have a frozen Aleutian outpost just hanging out there without support?

Why Ndeni now?

Good question...

I'm looking at also hitting Baker and Canton Islands, but here ask for opinions.

My opinion is that you're channeling Isoruku Yamamoto, but in a bad way. No plan was ever too complicated for him or had enough redundant or superfluous landings or intricate moving pieces. You're now talking about 5 different objectives for your actions in the Pacific (Aleutians, Baker, Canton, Johnston, Ndeni and, of course, the Hawaiian islands) with multiple interarticulating pieces to support one another.

What is your main goal? How will these objectives help you realize that main goal? Will you have sufficient resources (particularly LCUs with transport) available for all of these or will you need to prioritize? If the Hawaiian adventure is the most important goal, will the Ndeni counteroffensive help with that or possibly distract?

I fear a move on any of these islands and then a delay of months to move on Hawaii will give the Allies far too much time to reinforce directly at PH, even if PH isn't felt to be threatened directly. Essentially Johnston Island gives me a recon base to learn whether PH is weakly held and after a week of recon I should know all I need to know, I either move quickly or lose the element of surprise.

I agree with this message: once you tip your hand, you should be prepared to move with speed and force. Otherwise, attempting to take the Hawaiian islands slowly, on the cheap with the other attendant distractions you suggest will-IMO-negatively impact your ability to get the job done.

The other bases will give me a land bridge to move air units quickly to the Hawaiian Islands when needed. I may hit one of the dot bases between PH and Midway to establish a seaplane base as well. Part of me feels Midway may be a threat to my LOC if I don't capture it, but I fear that would be more heavily defended than Johnston and require too much force commitment to capture quickly. Perhaps that can be a secondary target if operations against Hawaii go well.

Sounds good-see how your main ops versus Hawaii go before identifying secondary operations.

[SqzMyLemon]

I never said they were good ideas. [:D]

I'm guilty of feeling I should be doing more, trying to make up for 10 months of relatively poor play. I'm not beating myself up here, but ultimately I've not played a smart game to date, so I feel pressure to "perform" somewhat.

I'm seeing the chickens hatch before the eggs are even lain. Everything you've pointed out and what I indeed wrote yesterday is premature and detracts from the main objective. I stated earlier that a successul operation at Hawaii might allow me to exploit other theatres...later, not before.

I looked at the winter penalties last night and you are right, there are more negatives than positives and it would truly detract from the main objective. I can deal with the Aleutians in the Spring if I have to, or even not at all.

Sigh, this is hard. [:D]

I'm thinking way too much. I need to dumb this down in order for me to pull this off. Right now, I need to look at only three objectives: Johnston Island, the Hawaiian Islands and the defence of Sumatra/Java while the Combined Fleet is tied to the Central Pacific.

Johnston Island is an Atoll, so I'm looking at 6k worth of defenders dug in behind at least level 6 forts at this stage. I know overstacking is a real bear, but I need to take the base quickly. I may have to chance a larger invasion package and just continually pump in supply.

I'm going to take a risk, and gather as much force as possible to hit the Hawaiian Islands with. Right now I have the 2nd, 16th, 48th and 54th available, but I'd like to commit 6-7 divisions and all the support troops necessary to facilitate base expansions and operations. I can buy out another division from either China or the Home Islands within a month. I'll need to buy out more engineer, support and AA units as well, not to mention additional air units from China. I get the Tony in February and two Nate units of 2nd Air in Manchuquo can upgrade to it.

All my garrison units will go to replacing these divisions. My priority is to first reinforce Sumatra and New Guinea, then Java. Burma is in no danger at the moment, and if anything I really should pull back, form a defensive line and then I could deploy another two divisions to Hawaii.

I wish I'd taken Midway at least, that base would be ideal right now for raiding the LOC between Hawaii and the West Coast. Above all, I do not want Hawaii reinforced.

I'm going to set things in motion and start to move LCU's and supply to Saipan, Truk and Kwajelein. I'll have a better idea of the forces I have available once they get moving. I have tons of shipping capacity at Singapore to facilitate moving units east. The 16th and 48th divisions are at Ambon and Makassar respectively, while the 2nd Division is at Lae and the 54th at Saipan.

Would it be worthwhile having the 1st Tank Division available for Hawaii? It will have formed at Tougoo within a week and I could easily get it to Truk in time. Would the terrain at PH negate having armour?

This all depends of course on what recon shows at PH. If PH is weakly held I hit it with a sledgehammer. If it's strongly defended I go for isolation and blockade to draw the Allies out. Either way I have to be prepared for any situation. There is much to do. I will first reploy my submarine forces to CENTPAC and SOPAC theatres to gather intelligence as the Combined Fleet gathers.

I'm going to post more on Hawaii in a week or so, I have so many things to sort out and it's completely overwhelming me at the moment, I'm not focusing. I don't think I'm capable of any kind of Maskirovka or devious planning to facilitate this operation, my previous post was a dismal failure at even attempting to [:D]. Next time I'll be better prepared, right now...I'll prepare myself as best I can, but essentially I'm going to just bludgeon whatever Allied force is between me and my Hawaiian objectives. If I keep it simple this operation is doable at this stage. I don't have months and months to prepare anymore, the longer I wait the stronger the Allies will get and the less strategic Hawaii becomes. That's not to say I'm going to act rashly...I'll face what I have to with as much thought as I can and maybe get rewarded with success.

So, in a week I'll post specifically what I've done towards the Hawaiian operation. Until then, it will be business as usual in Burma, China and reinforcing the Empire. I'm going to start shifting LCU's immediately and gradually shifting air units to the east. No sideshows.

[PaxMondo]

Watching this with GREAT interest.  Very impressive to contemplate PH at this time.

[SqzMyLemon]

Oct. 28/42 Update:

Sub Ops:

A rare successful day for Japanese submariners today.

SS I-173 near Utupua torpedoes and sinks the APD Manley carrying support units to Ndeni. 1(4) non-combat squds were lost totalling 30 troops.

SS RO-64 near Ndeni hits the APD Ward which loses 2(0) non-combat squads totalling 24 casualties. The APD sinks later in the turn. Three near miss DC hits are received which severly damage the fuel tanks of RO-64. She'll head to Manila for repairs.

SS S-28 duds on the PB Nichiro Maru near Rossel Island.

Burma:

The night airbase attack against Cox's Bazar was a failure. Of 40+ Sallys that were ordered to bomb the airfield only six planes flew. I'm guessing Chiang Mai is overstacked. Only 1 Runway hit is recorded.

Ok, here are the combat reports for the sweeps against Cox's Bazar. Japanese losses for the sweeps totalled (14) Ki-43-Ic 's Oscar's in A2A with (3) more lost to Ops. One Tojo Ki-44 IIa was lost to A2A. The Allies lost P-40K Warhawks (6) to A2A. These totals are based on the intelligence report and I suffered a 3:1 loss ratio. I lost a further (9) aircraft of various models including G4M1 Betty's (5) to Ops! My ops losses are horrendous.

All sweeps were set to 20k and an Oscar and Tojo Sentai were based at Toungoo, while the other Oscar unit was based at Taung Gyi. All are assigned the same HQ which is located at Taung Gyi with a command radius of 5. The first sweep launched was from Taung Gyi as it suffered the most losses. All units were 65-72 average experience with the Tojo and Oscar Sentai based at Toungoo the better pilots while the Oscar's from Taung Gyi were a mixture with some rookies making up about 25% of the unit. Here are the combat reports:

The first sweep -

Morning Air attack on Cox's Bazar , at 54,43

Weather in hex: Severe storms (The reason for no co-ordination? Or do sweeps not coordinate in general?)

Raid detected at 16 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet. (almost on target before detection)
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes (not a lot of time for the defenders to scramble)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 38 (I outnumber intitially by 38 to 6 if I read the report correctly and what transpired watching the replay, Allied planes kept joining the fray and getting dive attacks from behind, shredding my aircraft)

Allied aircraft
P-40K Warhawk x 25 (there are 7 or so fighters shown initially during the replay, I think)

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 7 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x Ki-43-Ic Oscar sweeping at 20000 feet

CAP engaged:
23rd FG/76th FS with P-40K Warhawk (0 airborne, 6 on standby, 17 scrambling)
6 plane(s) intercepting now. (these planes getting the dive I completely understand, the rest I don't)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 2 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 24000 , scrambling fighters between 18000 and 24000. (why did my sweeps not dive on these fighters as they climbed and instead ignored these aircraft until they in turn dove on my aircraft?)
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 44 minutes (does this actually mean anything?)

This Sentai suffered the greatest loss of 14 aircraft. I did not rerun the replay to record the actual number of dive attacks, but if that would provide further understanding as to why this particular Sentai was handled so roughly I will.

The second sweep -

Morning Air attack on Cox's Bazar , at 54,43

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 24,000 feet. (again, little warning)
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes (same time to scramble)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 28 (Again heavily outnumber the CAP intitially)

Allied aircraft
P-40K Warhawk x 11

No Japanese losses
(I actually lost 3 aircraft)

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x Ki-43-Ic Oscar sweeping at 20000 feet

CAP engaged:
23rd FG/76th FS with P-40K Warhawk (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
10 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 24000 , scrambling fighters between 19000 and 22000. (I don't recall which side if any got the dive, I can check if needed)
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 63 minutes

This Sentai was experienced, rested and high morale yet very poor results.

The third sweep:

Morning Air attack on Cox's Bazar , at 54,43

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 23,000 feet. (Spotted farther away yet less aircraft sortie)
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes (More time to scramble)

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 30 (A 6:1 advantage)

Allied aircraft
P-40K Warhawk x 5 (Is the CAP overwhelmed at this point?)

No Japanese losses
(I actually lost 1 aircraft)

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
30 x Ki-44-IIa Tojo sweeping at 20000 feet *

CAP engaged:
23rd FG/76th FS with P-40K Warhawk (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 3 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 24000 , scrambling fighters between 19000 and 21000. (I got the dive against the CAP)
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes

This sweep appears to have given the Allied planes the most time to react, the shortest interception time, yet it's the lowest number of CAP available. I believe this sweep caused the most downed enemy aircraft.

Some more questions:

1. Since the target hex was 7 hexes distant from each of my airfields, what determines which Sentai attacks first?
2. Is it bad luck my weakest unit attacked first?
3. Would the leader with the highest air skill and aggression determine the order of attack?
4. My best fighter attacked last, is this random or is there a sequence to the order the air model commits units?
5. Did I get 3 subpar "rolls" causing these results?
6. Did I just end up engaging a better Allied unit?
7. Does preparation of the air HQ come into play? Should it be set to the target, or the base occupied by the HQ?

In this case, the weakest Sentai attacked first and faced the most CAP, yet I look at the combat report and think I was in a pretty good tactical position. Granted, I had some rookies, but the other half were all mid 60's to mid 70's experience, only a couple kills at best? What am I missing, just a bad roll or the possibility of better experience and aircraft on the Allied side being the deciding factor? Why did the CAP continually get the dive, just because their patrol altitude was 24k compared to my 20k. The Oscar has a great rate of climb, doesn't this factor in at all?

I know there are numerous factors involved. I'm just trying to understand so I can make better decisions. If I learn the factors that determine why these sweeps didn't coordinate I can change my settings. If the leader aggression plays a role, I can switch them so my better fighters might engage first. Is it just the weather limiting coordination, air skill levels of the leaders? If I learn things are completely random then I can learn from that too. It just seems like I was in a good position, yet lost 3 times as many aircraft and if the order of sweeps was different, or they had coordinated I'd have had better results. Like anyone else, I just want to put my forces into a position to succeed, but if you don't know why things are happening it's pretty hard to apply better tactics. I appreciate any thoughts on this particular subject.

China:

Was pretty quiet today.

Changsha's airbase was bombed for a further 4 AB, 4 ABS and 54 Runway hits.

An artillery bombardment caused 6(4) infantry and 2(2) non-combat squad losses totalling 80 casualties for the Chinese. 0(9) non-combat squads totalling 42 casualties for the Japanese. I plan on launching another deliberate attack in a few days when more disabled squads recover. AV comparison is now 2259 to 998 in favour of the Japanese.

Miscellaneous:

Wakkanai expands fortifications to size 1
Tinian expands fortifications to size 3
Lanchow expands fortifications to size 4

Previous report of sinking of BB West Virginia incorrect. Intelligence reports ship is still in service (sigh, not a very good PH attack, in hindsight I should have stayed two days)