GC 76mm (Sov) vs Ketza (Ketza Welcome)

[76mm]

OK, here is the last table I post for a while, I don't want to bore people to death... I'll try to keep tracking the data, and maybe post some conclusions once I have more data. To this table I've added whether the attack was Hasty or Deliberate:

A couple of things:
1) It is ironic, but the CV deflator was much less in these battles for some reason, even though I was not in fortified positions for most of them. In other words, my troops did better in the open field than in fortified positions...
2) Despite all of my whining and bitching, I don't think that the casualties that the Germans have been taking in these battles are sustainable--in general their losses have been about half of mine (other than pocketed troops), which I don't think works for them.
3) There is another hugely important factor which I have not been quantifying, and probably will not quantify--morale. I'm not going to look at the morale of every Sov brigade that gets crushed, but I think we can say that it is much lower than the German attackers. Although at this point his Romanians and Hungarians also probably have higher morale that my Sovs.

In any event, I am a bit tired of getting kicked around and am going to try to start picking on some of his units this turn. Wish me luck!

[76mm]

The first thing is to look at his mysteriously wimpy attack near Smolensk. He seems to have a attacked with some panzer divisions, succeeded, and then pulled them back to put them on rails. See here:

Not really sure what he is trying to achieve here, and what he intends to do next. I think I can rule out a transfer of these panzers to north of Lake Seliger, because his infantry strength up there falls off a cliff. I guess he could go just north of Smolensk, to here:

But I think this area looks weaker than it is, and so am not very worried about this approach. Maybe he'll ship them back down south?

In general, I think he has made a big mistake in separating his two panzer forces by so much, because it makes a HUGE difference in how I can react. With only one "panzer prong" to worry about in each sector, the risk of encirclement goes WAY down, and I can think more about attacks, as you'll see. He'd have been much better off keeping these panzers lurking about the south, although as a result I would have transferred even more reinforcements down there. So rather an interesting dilemna for the German player. Poor Ketza!

[76mm]

OK, am partially through the turn, and wanted to post some long-overdue favorable results. As I mentioned, now that he only has one panzer group operating in any given sector, I felt free to concentrate my forces on the front line and attack, so I launched several attacks this turn, some of them even successful. For the most part the CV changes went in my favor during these attacks. Go figure...

Note that I've got stuff going on behind the lines which I don't want anyone to see, so I've smeared the rear areas.



My first attempt to relieve the pocket failed:

But the next one succeeded:

I'll still lose most of the troops but it was an important psychological victory for my demoralized troops--pockets can sometimes, in theory, be relieved, at least temporarily. It's the best news they've gotten for a long time!

In general I had a good time beating up on poorly-entrenched Hungarians:


Looks like my artillery showed up in these battles, unlike the defensive battles (I suppose realistic enough).

[76mm]

OK, probably my last post for this turn, although I think I'll not send it back until tonight, I want to ponder a few things.

Anyway, since he pulled his mobile troops out of the Crimea, I also decided to take back a little real estate down there:


In case anyone is wondering, I am generally using my AP to create rifle corps and new rifle divisions. I'm taking my Shock and Reserve Fronts "off screen" and you won't be hearing more about them until I've decided to commit them, so stay tuned.

[EDIT] I guess I'll suspend further analysis of combat results, it seems like an overall bias for the attacker, but who knows, it is really quite incomprehensible to me. The funny thing is that the initial odds would generally seem to lead to the "correct" results, so the purpose of all of the monkey-motion with CV inflation/deflation is a bit unclear to me; although some element of luck and randomness is certainly necessary when determining combat results, this game might have jumped the shark on this issue...I wonder if a simple CRT (Combat Results Table, ala boardgames) would have been better?

[cpt flam]

reopening pocket was excellent for you [8D]
divisions inside will (perhaps) rout instead of surrender
many AP saved

[76mm]

I think he will simply close the pocket again, but it will cost him a turn. Even though there is no blizzard to save me this year, I figure that at this point every turn I get a little stronger, and he gets a little weaker.

[Zebedee]

ORIGINAL: 76mm
2) Despite all of my whining and bitching, I don't think that the casualties that the Germans have been taking in these battles are sustainable--in general their losses have been about half of mine (other than pocketed troops), which I don't think works for them.

His tactical victories will lead to strategic defeat if he keeps using hasty attacks without either overwhelming numbers or the big payoffs in encirclements.

Excellent result on LAH and 1st SS motorised - if a fair proportion of his arty losses are big guns, that's really going to make it sting. Looks like the big red crushing machine is showing signs of coming to life - very encouraging for when it builds up a head of steam in six months or so.

[76mm]

I finished Turn 56 some time ago, but have not had a chance to post at all; I am now waiting to receive Turn 57 any time now.

Anyway, here is the situation in the south; just when I said how the risk of encirclement is much lower with only one panzer group, he went and encircled another handful of my (best) divisions:


He's now got 13 panzer divisions and 11 moto units in this area, quite a concentration...

He's still got at least two panzer and two moto divisions, and probably more, lurking south of Smolensk:

Not sure if he ever plans to attack with these or just suck up my reserves by threatening Moscow, but I'll have to decide what to do here shortly, as I need troops elsewhere.

He also beat back my land grab in the Crimea:

I'm actually not very disappointed with this development, as it seems to have drawn back a handful of strong infantry divisions which he seemed to be pulling back to other fronts. I am probably tying down more of this strength here now than if I had retained the whole Crimea, so that is probably a good thing. The only bad thing about his success was that it prompted the computer to fire the commander of the Southern Front and replace him with Voroshilov, who is a crap commander. Now I need to spend signficant AP to replace him with someone decent. I kind of wish there was an option to turn off AI selection of which commanders to replace (and shoot!), I thought I was in charge around here?!

Also, I didn't bother to take screenshots, but I also launched several attacks at various places along the front, whereever I could get decent odds, and forced a retreat in most instances. This included three attacks up near Lgrad, where his infanty units are really weak. I may move some troops around to exploit this weakness, although it depends on what he does around Smolensk to some extent. Many of my units are gradually gaining strength now, so I hope to be able to continue, and increase, this kind of attack.

As far as overall strategy, some of you are probably wondering why the front around Rostov is so weak...truth be told, I kind of hope he heads down that way, as it will string him out and I really don't see that I have too much to lose down there, at least unless he penetrates the mountains or takes ALL of the ports on the eastern coast of the Black Sea, which I don't intend to allow. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, although it is probably too late to correct at this point.

A couple of questions:
1) At what point, if any, do the last remaining purple units on the Turkish border get released? If the Germans approach the mountains, or is it solely based on time? I could use them sooner rather than later.
2) I assume that if he captures ports on the eastern coast of the Black Sea, he can draw supply from them as well as from the rail, is that correct?

[76mm]

Turn 57 over, pretty interesting.

I opened the turn to find that Ketza had not only reclosed the pocket from the previous turn, but had pocketed about another 15 units in that area...crap! (forgot to get screen shot).

I had to think for a long time about what to do down there, and finally decided to try to reopen the pocket from the south, from Rostov. I bombed the hell out of the weakest of his units down there (bombed it probably 6-8 times) and then made an attack...and it worked! The pocket was reopened!!


14th Panzer lost almost half its tanks, and a bunch of artillery!

If I could also reopen the pocket from the north, I would cut off his panzer spearhead, so I tried the same recipe: bombed the crap out of the weakest unit I could find, and then committed my ace-in-the-hole, the Shock (Volkhov) Front:

Another successful attack...his 20th Panzer and 1st SS moto brigade lost most of their tanks and more than half of their arty!

I followed this up with a few other attacks with the Shock Front:


Both successes...

Then I committed the Reserve (Voronezh) Front and conducted more attacks. Here is the situation at the end of the turn:


While the pocket is weak and will certainly be reopened, his units should be weakened, all are already red on fuel. In total, there are ten panzer divs, nine moto units, four panzer corps HQ, two panzer army HQ, and an airbase.

Feels pretty good finally, even if temporary.

More later.

[Aussiematto]

One of the things that Sov players discover about now (late July 42) is jhow much stronger they are than they first think! great play.

[Flaviusx]

This is how it is done in 1942. Not just by mindless carpeting, but with mobile reserves to counter German breakthroughs. The Soviet should actually welcome limited breakthroughs if they've got the forces to counter them.

[Klydon]

Oh yikes! Talk about having the tables turned! The Germans are going to be very surprised when he gets that turn. There isn't a lot to cut through either. Just some infantry up north. That many divisions is basically two panzer armies.

Well played sir!

[76mm]

I wanted to show my air losses from Turn 57, although I am not sure if they are right:


These losses are horrific and unsustainable, but they don't seem right, fighters in particular I don't seem to be losing very many of. On the other hand, my losses during partisan supply flights are horrific; I lose at least one bomber/transport on every mission, often 25% or more of the participating aircraft. As far as I can tell, this is solely from flak, which does not seem right--I would think that flak would have limited effectiveness at night, except maybe if it is defending a fixed point such as a city or airbase.

[76mm]

Finishing Turn 58. Here is what I saw in the south when I opened the turn:


Obviously he had opened his pocket and snuffed out my formerly pockets units, but of course they were not isolated yet so simply routed out--a good outcome.

I mounted a few successful attacks on units on the north edge of the salient; here is the situation after the turn:


You'll note that I'm not crowding his spearheads at all, in fact am trying to keep my distance to a certain extent. The fact is that this is exactly the kind of situation I was trying to avoid: my critical strategic reserves (the Shock and Reserve Fronts) committed to the line against multiple panzer armies in more or less good shape. My best forces are now at some risk of encirclement, and that would be an unmitigated disaster...I had planned to let him continue further south or east before counterattacking in this area, but I just couldn't let him pocket all of those units last turn, and the opportunity to cut off his spearhead was impossible to resist.

Anyway, my units are now a bit exposed, especially since he seems to have shifted at least some of the panzer divs that had been around Smolensk to the area NW of Stalino. By next turn I will have addressed this issue, but if he strikes hard this turn I could be in trouble. His timing is generally impeccable, so this is a serious concern, although I hope he will use this turn to catch his breath and resupply.

My air losses are still staggering, mostly tactical and level bombers. I have dialed back interdiction air doctrine from 300% to 200% to reduce the mayhem. Fighter intercept is still at 200%. His air losses continue to be very very light, this really seems broken to me...

[Scook_99]

Hmmm, air losses do look heavy, Google is failing me to find casualty rates. I did find USSR had 3800 available aircraft in December 1942. Everything points to the shift in 1943 and from Kursk on, Russia dominated the skies. Just thinking about it, the Allies swung into the day/night bombing mode full time in 1943, so I imagine there were a lot less pilots available in the Eastern Front at that time. I have to aks what kind of shape your air units are in, even with the losses? I would even consider dialing down the interdiction to 50% if you have skeleton air crews and yank your long range bombers off the air bases that supply the partisans for a bit.


Great AAR, btw!

Edit: Ooohh, ahhh, found one thing:

He was quoting statistics from Grif Sekretnosti Sniat, edited by Colonel-General G. F. Krivosheev. The English translation was retitled, Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses in the Twentieth Century.

Table 95 shows aircraft losses by year, including total losses compared to combat losses. There are separate categories for combat aircraft and other planes used for transport, training, etc. The chart indicates that the total Soviet aircraft losses (all types) was 106,400 of which 46,100 were considered to be combat losses. The losses of 'combat aircraft' (Bombers, Ground-Attack, Fighters) was 88,300 of which 43,100 were identified as combat losses.

[76mm]

Frankly, I'm not sure where all of these losses are coming from, that's why I'm not sure if they are right; I've looked at the battle reports for the interdiction attacks, and while losses are fairly heavy, they don't seem to be as heavy as shown in the losses screen.

At the very beginning of very turn, I review the air groups tab of the commander's report and basically shift any air units with fewer than 10 aircraft to the NR, and reassign fresher units to the same unit; at least that's what I have been doing for the last several turns. Now I've decided to lower the threshold to fewer than nine planes, because I don't have enough replacements for the previous higher threshold.

I want to keep the interdiction level high, even if it costs me, as I'm hoping that it has the effect of screwing up the finely-tuned German offensive machine. Although I'm not really sure if this is working...I don't expect to inflict signficant ground losses, but want to cost him enough MP so that he can't reach the hex he hoped to, or perhaps won't have enough for a deliberate attack, etc.

I assign most of my IL-4s to partisan supply, because of their long range, but my recent heavy losses mean that I have had to leave many of my VVS bases with either no bombers or those with shorter range. I expect that the effects of partisan supply (and the ensuing partisan attacks) is fairly marginal, so I guess no big deal, but if these losses keep up I may have a hard time providing adequate ground support, etc.

The weird thing is that looking at the combat results screens, and more importantly when I cycle through my air units at the beginning of each turn, I don't see anything like the heavy fighter losses shown on the losses screen. All in all, rather puzzling...

[Pawlock]

ORIGINAL: 76mm

Frankly, I'm not sure where all of these losses are coming from, that's why I'm not sure if they are right; I've looked at the battle reports for the interdiction attacks, and while losses are fairly heavy, they don't seem to be as heavy as shown in the losses screen.

At the very beginning of very turn, I review the air groups tab of the commander's report and basically shift any air units with fewer than 10 aircraft to the NR, and reassign fresher units to the same unit; at least that's what I have been doing for the last several turns. Now I've decided to lower the threshold to fewer than nine planes, because I don't have enough replacements for the previous higher threshold.

I want to keep the interdiction level high, even if it costs me, as I'm hoping that it has the effect of screwing up the finely-tuned German offensive machine. Although I'm not really sure if this is working...I don't expect to inflict signficant ground losses, but want to cost him enough MP so that he can't reach the hex he hoped to, or perhaps won't have enough for a deliberate attack, etc.

I assign most of my IL-4s to partisan supply, because of their long range, but my recent heavy losses mean that I have had to leave many of my VVS bases with either no bombers or those with shorter range. I expect that the effects of partisan supply (and the ensuing partisan attacks) is fairly marginal, so I guess no big deal, but if these losses keep up I may have a hard time providing adequate ground support, etc.

The weird thing is that looking at the combat results screens, and more importantly when I cycle through my air units at the beginning of each turn, I don't see anything like the heavy fighter losses shown on the losses screen. All in all, rather puzzling...

I have experienced unexplainable hight loses too now and again,not often though. Not quite as high as yours but 500-600 and can only see around half that when I look at all the reports.

[Flaviusx]

76mm, I think you are doing it just right. You've fixed his panzers on to this area. Now it's just a question of feeding in reserves to the battle and grinding him down. It's ok to fall back. It is even desirable to do so and draw the German deeper into the Soviet Union and exhaust himself, provided he doesn't make huge pockets. Keep throwing forces into the battle and contesting the advance. You can also thin out other areas of the front to do this, since he is committed to this place. Get those tank corps trained up. 8-10 wins will flip them over to guards status.

Also, try to avoid putting tank corps on the front. Keep them behind a screen of infantry. You want these guys available to counterattack, they are not amazing on defense. Put some of them on reserve -- this can mess up German hasty attacks.

[DTurtle]

Have you looked at the training losses (they are under the logistics report shift+e)?

[76mm]

Beginning of Turn 59...isn't this interesting?


In addition to the fact that he actually did a major pullback, look at all of those interdiction attacks, wow!

Well this changes everything, will have to think about implications, but not tonight, will report more at the end of the turn...