Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

Thank you for the suggtestions. I believe you're right about upper Malaya being lightly guarded, but you're two steps ahead of where I am and can be at the moment, though I do plan to hit Malaya after western Sumatra.

Here's my plan. Right now I don't have the troops to invade Malaya in a meaningful way (unless I strip Sumatra, which I'm not comfortable doing yet - I haven't taken control of things the way Nemo did by March 1942, so there's still a very real prospect of an enemy move in strength in coming weeks or a month). All I can cobble together from India to invade Malaya is two American RCT, a Marine Raider unit, and some of the unrestricted dregs from the Burma army. Not enough. Yet.

However, I do have enough to retake Sabang, which if done soon enough (especially following the Kuriles invasion) should throw Steve off his game a bit (I think his hold on western Sumatra probably figures into his long-term plans whether that's to hit eastern Sumatra or to venture into the Bay of Bengal).

I don't intend to leave my invasion troops in western Sumatra once I recapture Sabang and the other bases. I'll extract most of them. By then, I should have enough PP to buy 27th USA Division. At that point I can probably put together a legitimate Malaya invasion force, and by retaking western Sumatra I should make my task of invading that much better.

[vettim89]

However, I do have enough to retake Sabang, which if done soon enough (especially following the Kuriles invasion) should throw Steve off his game a bit (I think his hold on western Sumatra probably figures into his long-term plans whether that's to hit eastern Sumatra or to venture into the Bay of Bengal).

Ah, I think all can agree here that you've already accomplished that fete

[Nemo121]

Dan,

Sounds like a nice, cohesive, phased plan. Good work.


Vettim89,
Well Canoerebel has thrown his opponent off his game a bit but not as much as might have been possible. With that said he didn't fully commit to this new approach until some point in the game so that limited his ability to throw his opponent off. I'm sure if he had the game to play again he'd commit more fully to this approach more rapidly having seen its pay-off so clearly in this game. So, live and learn and all that.

[Canoerebel]

That's the truth, Nemo. I wish I had moved more quickly to attack in the Pacific.

In my defense, I was totally unsure of the strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies of my opponent when we started the game. I knew he was a long-timer who evidently had a fair amount of experience. I also knew he could benefit from Q-Ball's AAR from my last game and from advice he would be getting from other experienced forumites like Chickenboy. For all I knew, Steve would mount a strong attack against India or (less likely) Australia.

I actually got started on Fortress Palembang fairly early thanks to a suggestion by Nemo. I started slowly around December 10, moving mainly DEI units, and didn't really ramp up until mid January when it became clear that Steve was committing to a protracted Luzon campaign. Since that point, the Aliled long-term objectives have become more clear and I feel pretty good about the moves made and future plans.

Had I been more adept at assessing what Steve was doing and likely to do at the outset, as some other players might have been, I would have moved much more quickly.

P.S. In some ways, this game is a mirror image of my game with Q-Ball, where he moved strongly into the very area I was pulling back. In this game, I have been strongly reinforcing in the very area that Steve has been ignorning.

[Nemo121]

In your defence? No defence is needed. You have won this game, all that remains is for your opponent to realise it. That signifies good play and, IMO, would negate the need for any defence of your play.

With that said, we can all learn from what went before. It'd be very easy just to go "Brilliant game" when you win but the better approach ( which I am certain you will take ) is to go, "Good game, what could I have done better?". My post was merely in that vein. Now that you've done this this time in your next game you'll be much more open to this possibility and much more likely to pursue it earlier and stronger. I think this should make for an interesting and satisfying game.

[Alfred]

Steady on guys, this game is not yet over.[:)]

Japan can still rearrange its tactical and strategical plans to steer for an auto victory. It only requires a radical mind set reorientation by ChezDaJez.[;)] Think of all the new possibilities now open to Japan to achieve victory.

Nah, I think Japan has just been luring the Allies into a false sense of security. Maybe the Japanese player has maneouvred so that for once the cry will be "Allied victory disease".

Alfred

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Steady on guys, this game is not yet over.[:)]

Japan can still rearrange its tactical and strategical plans to steer for an auto victory. It only requires a radical mind set reorientation by ChezDaJez.[;)] Think of all the new possibilities now open to Japan to achieve victory.

Nah, I think Japan has just been luring the Allies into a false sense of security. Maybe the Japanese player has maneouvred so that for once the cry will be "Allied victory disease".

Alfred

Was that an I-boat passing under the Golden Gate, or merely a great white? [:'(]

[Alfred]

Seriously, you put Nemo in charge of the Japanese forces today and how many would still be brave enough to say it was all over and the Allies had won. And if the counter claim to that statement is that ChezDaJez is not Nemo, well that is equivalent to just saying that the Allies had already won the game the moment the Japanese opponent had been chosen.

ChezDaJez just needs to fundamentally reassess his approach. If he can, the game is still alive, if he can't then the future prospects for a Japanese victory are remote, but the game would still have to be won against Japanese defence. Not that different from the norm.

Actually it isn't a single I-boat passing under the Golden Gate. It is a fleet of Japanese SSTs (I think they get some) carrying a crack team of black robed ninjas titled "Whale-6" to capture and destroy the Allied aircraft factories on the West Coast.[:)]

Alfred

[witpqs]

I didn't say it was over. I think if Chez does things differently than he has so far it could turn into quite a challenging game. Thinking in terms of realistic victory (I don't really do the standard VPs) how would the (little electronic) public react if the Empire rolled up (meaning captured or destroyed) all those extra forces shipped in for the defense of the DEI and surrounding environs?

[erstad]

What about invading behind him in Malaysia? Land there, cut his lines of supply from Thailand into Malaysia and watch his army at Singapore's gates falter and his planned amphibious invasion of Java/Southern Sumatra be reconfigured into a counter-counter-invasion of Malaysia.

Basically, why don't you Inchon him? You already have lots of troops at Palembang who can move to Oosthaven and load onto ships there. You can LRCAP the invasion site ( Georgetown is a nice place to land at ) from Northern Sumatra and once you have the base fly in 200 fighters and massacre him.

Maybe I'm missing something, but how does taking Georgetown do anything significant to cut supplies, in and of itself? Japan can just dump supplies at Mersing.

[vettim89]

To clarify: all I meant was that Dan's tactics at least have the appearance of setting Steve back a bit. The mauling of Baby KB off Timor cannot be undervalued IMHO

[obvert]

Why not alter the discussion a bit and ask, "As the Japanese player now, if you took over this game, what steps would you take to counter the current situation?"

I keep thinking that if chez gets the forces out of Luzon, takes Singers and Java during the next month, by May he could be landing 6-8 divisions in Medan and just march down methodically. At the same time he could cut transport by setting up an air base or two on te islands west of Sumatra, and get enough air in te area to break down the AVG and company. By July he could be knocking on Palembang without having needed to go through the defenses in the southern ports. If Sumatra could be wrapped up by August or Zeptember, he could then throw everything into Burma/India and counteract the moves that CR is bound to make if he does attack Sumatra.

I thunk autovictory is almost beyond reach, but a strong game for Japan is not. Especially if he does roll the Sumatra forces and manages to keep Fiji and Burma intact.

I see no evidence any of this will happen based on play, but it's what I would be thinking now as Japan.

[Canoerebel]

Part of the fun of a PBEM against an opponent unknown to you is figuring out his strengths, weakenesses, and tendencies. Some players are better at that than others. I don't think I'm strong in that regard. But eventually you get a feel for the opponent and that makes a big different in assessing the current state of things and future plans.

Everyone knows that there are elite players that could step in an do things differently. Nobody was suggesting that the Allies had performed masterfully and were unbeatable (or, in my case, incapable of beating themselves).

Furthermore, I doubt any experienced player believes the game is over. For one thing, we know that Japan on the defensive can make for a long, difficult war. I've been through that before in a match in which the Allies seemed to be doing well in 1942, but Japan fought gamely well into 1945.

In assessing the current state of this game against my opponent, I am confident that IJ auto victory is no longer possible. I also think the Allies are in good shape to inflict further stings and perhaps defeats on Japan.

obvert's suggested course of action for Japan is a good once - though I think an IJ army landing in western Sumatra will have a tough time drawing supply over a network of yellow roads to support major combat operations in eastern Sumatra (though there are variations of that plan with possibilities). However, it seems to me that his plan as stated implied a static stance by the Allies. The Allies won't be static. They'll be actively defending, raiding, and going on the offensive forcing new decisions and crisises for Japan.

Time is running for Japan to take control and have its way. Ordinarily, that period should run from January 1942 to about September 1942. We're nearly at the end of March, and Japan is still trying to get untracked. Losing three months is an Allied victory, though I don't take credit for that victory. I think Steve got mired down, didn't know exactly what he wanted to do, and thus blunted his offensive momentum for an extended time.

[Nemo121]

The game isn't over but it is, given the current player matchup won. Whatnis left is merely figuring out how long the end-game will take and what the butcher's bill will be. So, in the chess sense it is over.

Alfred,
Well, Chez Da Jez won't, IMO, change course. I saw your name pop up on his thread so I'm sure you've given him good advice. It won't be fully acted on though. He is a competent player but I think this change is too much for him to countenance

I'm sure what you've suggested is roughly what I'd do if I took over now, turn strength into weakness by removing the ability of the Allied troops in Palembang to supply themselves. Take Java, Northern Sumatra ( lots of nice oil there) and Borneo and then bomb the refineries in Palembang - so the oil is still producedmjust not refined into supply and fuel. Then let pale,bang starve while Netties prevent resupply.

Implement this cordon until such time as the troops starve. Use the IJA troops who are freed up during this time for major offensives in China to crush the Chinese one and for all and then transfer them to the DEI to take Sumatra once supplies have run out.

Then with all these troops set up strong defensive region, trading up-frot strengthnfor the depth you no longer have. Spoiling operations would also, obviously be useful.

All ofnthe oil from Palembang could be brought to the Home Islamds and while it wouldn't result in the same rate of fuel and supply production having oil stockpiles, together with a moderate increase in Home Island refinery capacity could still boost Japan significantly. That would result in avert tough. Ut for the Allies to crack.

I'm sure you've advised something like that - probably with a bit more emphasis on offensives into the Indian Ocean/ Pacific rather than China. That's a stylistic difference though only.Chez DaJez won't implement it though, IMO.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for that insight, Nemo. There's alot for me to chew on, and I'll do so later today. But here's an important consideration: We have a HR preventing strategic bombing in China and the DEI until 1944.

[Nemo121]

Ah, well I'd be willing to bet you are not self-sufficient even with the refineries... It'd take a lot longer to reduce you but it could still be done. He obviously didn't think through the ramifications of that HR though. He just assumed he'd take Palembang and thus he wouldn't bomb in China if you didn't bomb at Palembang.

We can't really blame him for that though. Very few people would factor the possibility of Japan not taking Palembang into their pre-game HR negotiations.

[Canoerebel]

That's true. I didn't think of it until recently.

What do you guys think? Is it an HR I should "surrender"?

[Nemo121]

I wouldn't surrender it unless he asked... No need to give him ideas by asking WHY you are surrendering it. The offer would suggest the strategy.

[paullus99]

Absolutely no need to bring it up - because yes, it would absolutely give him invaluable intelligence on your operational thinking.

[Canoerebel]

3/21/42

It's the first day of spring and there's alot going on.

Western DEI: (1) A Japanese CL/DD TF penetrated all the way to Palembang to sink two empty xAK. Steve is feeling frisky! (2) A small IJ force has arrived at Tjaedoenbaili (spelling aint close) at the eastern end of the rail line that runs west to Sabang. After bombarding, the Japanese force thinks it slightly outnumbers the Allies, but tonight the Aliles will air transport reinforcements from Padang (part of an Indian brigade). I want to hold this base until the Allies invade Sabang. (3) The enemy hasn't reinforced Singapore, yet, but I"m awaiting the imminent arrival of at least the IJA 52nd Division.

China: That massive Japanese stack moved to Changsha. The Chinese have 2700 AV there, so the hex can be reinforced as long as the Japanese army doesn't equal or exceed 8,100 AV. I'm hoping the Japanese will attack and impale themselves on the urban terrain and the 100% prep of the entire 2700-AV garrison, but I will send about 600 AV from Siangtan to reinforce. Another 1400 AV from Siangtan will move south to reinforce 4,000 Chinese AV at Hengyang. THe combined forces will then attack across the river against what I believe is a single IJA division. Alot could happen here over the next week or so to change what has been a static front with mounting tensions.

NoPac: D-Day perhaps 9 days away, while it seems like it's taking BBs Maryland and Idaho forever to get in position. This operaiton has an interesting give-and-take to it - the Allies will be giving Japan 2,500 AV in reinforcements (due to the invasion of Japan's home soil). After thinking long and hard about that, I"ve concluded that it's worth it. This is the first of several operations meant to throw the enemy off balance and halt the momentum that Japan has slowly gathered in the quiet of the past few weeks.

Allied Carriers: Enterprise and Yorktown will steam out of Colombo tonight to take station in the Bay of Bengal. Meanwhile, Saratoga and Lex were 18 days from finishing upgrades. Sara suddenly reset to 36 days. I don't know why. I've seen this happen in previous games, so I took care to set "Do Not Upgrade" after the initial upgrade went into effect, but this didn't work. So I upped priority and managed to get the repair time down to 22 days.

Enemy Carriers: No sign of them in a long time. If Steve is outthinking me or is lucky, they could be in NoPac, though that seems very unlikely. If they are, and if my NoPac invasion force thus gets a bloody nose, my counter will be to get more aggressive with reinforcement and offensive activity in the DEI.