Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

The impending Battle of Changsha is worth detailing.

Chez has been maneuvering for weeks trying to get an advantageous position. His stack of some 32 IJA units was in a hex that faced three Chinese bases that were strongly garrisoned. I carefully configured my forces to take advantage of the terrain and other considerations.

Steve elected to move his stack to the 2x-urban hex at Changsha. I think he has about 5,000 to 6,000 AV facing China's 2,700 AV. According to my calculations, my force should be strong enough to stand until I can send reinforcments. At 2x urban, five forts, and 100%, I should have an adjusted AV of 7,500+. The initial Japanese attack may be enough to drop the fort level, but should also result in disproportionately heavy Japanese casualties. I can reinforce quickly from Siangtan, so ultimately the Chinese should hold Changsha.

In the meantime, the Japanese forces guarding the two hexes to the south are greatly outnumbered. The Chinese will attack across the river from Hengyang against a force that I believe consists of 104th Division and a mortar unit. The Chinese will come with more than 5,000 AV.

The Chines will leave about 2,000 AV in reserve at the middle hex - Siangtan - until reinforcements arrive. Those reinforcements - some 1,700 AV - are about two or three weeks away.

If this goes as planned, the stout Japanese army should weaken itself in attacking strongly fortified Chinese positions. The force differential, which already favors the Chinese roughly 10,000 AV to about 6,000 AV, will increase in favor of the Chinese, thus permitting the Chinese to go on the offensive in this theater. That's the plan.

[Canoerebel]

Totally off topic, but directed especially to those of you who are citizens of the United Kingdom:

Have you ever read Allistair McLean's novel HMS Ulysses? If so, what do you think of it?

P.S. For the record, it has been one of my favorite books since my high school years, and recent re-readings hasn't altered my high opinion of it.

[John 3rd]

Love his books...favorites in Junior High and High School. I still have a couple on the shelves.

[Canoerebel]

3/22/42

Battle of Changsha: The Japanese immediately attacked with 5,800 AV vs. 2,700 AV, five forts, 2x urban, 100% prep. The attack came off at 1:2 (adjusted IJ AV of 5,800 to adjusted Chinese AV of 8,500), dropped forts from six to five, and inflicted slightly more Japanese squads destroyed but much heavier Japanese squad disablements. The Chinese now have 2,500 AV and the Japanese roughly 4,800 (but that number will be on the rise). In two days, the Chinese will bring in an additional 600 AV, with more close by (and no trouble avoiding unwanted auto-shock attacks in bringing them in given the raw AV ratio). As long as the Allies perform properly, Japan isn't going to break through here. I had hoped that Japan would impale itself in such an attack, but that didn't happen here. The damage was enough to make it clear Japan isn't going to succeed, and to give the Allies the chance to strike the isolated division to the south, but not to "maul" the Japanese so that China could go on a general offensive here.

China: The Allies are immediately sending 4,000 AV across the river at Hengyang to attack what I believe is a single IJA division. Steve will see this coming, so he should reinforce if possible and retreat if not.

Singapore: A Japanese deliberate attack at 1:1 dropped forts to three and inflicted slighlty more casualties on the Japanese. This is bad news as it took place even before IJA 52nd Div. has arrived. It should also make clear to Steve that he won't require additional divisions (such as those from Luzon, if he was contemplating such). I really want to reinforce Singers, but I don't want to weaken Sumatra. Japanese bombers hit the base for the first time in many weeks. I need to gauge these raids a bit before trying another fighter ambush.

Western DEI: Troops and ships will be congregating at Madras over the next few days. I think the Sabang invasion force can begin loading in about five days, so D-Day perhaps in two weeks or a bit less. Elsewhere, an Aussie CD unit is two days out of Oosthaven. The Allies have about 300 fighters in the western DEI. Roughly 200 are decent American and British fighters, another 100 substandard RAF, USAAF, and Dutch aircraft. If necessary, I could quickly augment that number by sending in the fighters from Enterprise and Yorktown. Seal missed a shot at CA Suzuya, but finished off a damaged xAP.

NoPac: The Paramushiro assault TFs are nearly at the rendezvous point well to the NW of Attu Island. The assault Onnekotan TF is SE of Amchitka and further away. In about three days, most of the supporting ships (escorts, bombardment, minesweepers) will be in place. At that point, the Allies will have three BB (while Maryland and Idaho will still be lagging). I think that's enough to proceed, so I anticipate D-Day occuring on schedule in about eight days. No signs of detection or enemy activity.

Pacific: Pretty quiet elsewhere. Of course, I'm wondering if Steve will continue his attacks in SoPac and/or SWPac, or whether he'll change focus to the DEI. He could elect to proceed without the KB in the DEI, relying on LBA and combat ships, but I can make him pay if he does.

Momentum: It's been awhile since the Allies "rebuked" Japan. Slowly, Steve has been gathering some momentum and rebuilding his confidence. In the past, I've been able to use that against him a bit as he would venture too far forward. I'll keep watching for such opportunities, but I also want to get the invasion of the Kuriles and Sabang under way. Right now, I feel like both would succeed handily and serve as effective blows to the enemy, once against slowing momentum.

[princep01]

Saratoga was an injury prone ship historiically and I think the programers hard wired that fact into her repair/upgrade code. She had the same experience for me on her first upgrade. Someone must have dropped a wrench into an important engine part:). She should get out of the yard only a little behind Lexington. Funny that despite all Sara's tough luck, she survived the war and the "luckier" Lady Lex did not.

[Canoerebel]

3/23/44

Princep: Sounds plausible....

China: Things quiet down as Steve rests his Changsha stack. Tomorrow, Allied reinforcements (600 AV 100% prepped) arrive from adjacent Siangtan. In two days, 4,000 Chinese AV will cross the river from Henyang and attack what I believe is a solo IJA division that should be dug in as it recently arrived. My hopes are high that this will be the start of something for the Allies.

Eastern DEI: The Japanese are invading lightly garrisoned Tarakan. It should fall tomorrow. Steve is busy backfilling. I'm wondering when he'll decide to front-fill at Java.

Western DEI: Quiet here as Steve rests his troops at Singapore. It is possible this base will hold only three more attacks - perhaps two weeks - so I'd better gird up my loins. I think the ships and troops will be in place in three days to combat load for the Sabang invasion. I need to get a move on! Some big Allied CD units and lots of good engineers arrive at Sumatra over the next week, which will help with building forts and airfields. Palembang supply is up to 150k.

NoPac: Tomorrow, I think all the Paramushiro assault TFs rendezvous at Point Luck, well to the NW of Attu Island. Most likely they'll then steam for Para, with D-Day perhaps just six to seven days away. The Onnekotan invasion might be a few days afterwards, but I feel the need to go while the going seems good. I'm thinking Onne is vacant and can be easily picked off, perhaps even by a detachment of the Para troops. Then I can land the garrison troops plus engineers.

[Canoerebel]

3/24/42

Things seem to be about to pop everywhere....

DEI: Imposing Japanese TFs seem to be everywhere. There's a TF of unknown composition south of Soerabaja (could be a carrier TF about to raid west towards the heart of my shipping activity). There's lots of combat TFs south of Singkawang in a position where Steve might be trying to raid all my shipping at Oosthaven (I've moved it) or even preparing to invade at Palembang or Oosthaven. I've configured my defenses as best I can - all bombers set to strike within ranges that will prevent them from going too far and blundering into enemy LBA CAP traps. I think I'll have a more clear picture next turn. But a bunch of engineers just arrived in Sumatra along with an Aussie CD unit at Oosthaven. I'm as ready as I can be if something big is up.

China: 4,000 Chinese AV cross the river from Hengyang tomorrow to attack what I still think will be one IJA division and a mortar unit. If the enemy doesn't move out ahead of time or reinforce, I think the Chinese will prevail.

NoPac: The Para assault TFs rendezvoued NW of Attu Island. I shuffled some ships around and issued orders for them to move out towards the invasion beaches. D-Day could be as soon as four to five days. The Onnekotan assault TFs will trail by a few days. No enemy airfields larger than size one within a fifteen hex radius, so I'm relying on suprrise and no CAP.

[witpqs]

My game with Treespider was gaining on yours for a while, and I wondered when we would catch up. I just realized that we passed you today (just sent off orders for 3/27/42). A different course for our game, but the Empire is also facing an active defense. One similarity, Treespider's guys investing Clark Field just ran into a brick wall.

[Canoerebel]

3/25/42
 
The top on the boiler is rattling and rolling and will pop off any day now.  There's just so much steam building up that something has to give soon.

Japanese in the DEI:  There's evil brewing in the DEI with such powerful Japanese forces all over.  Last turn, it had looked like Steve might try to work in a big invasion before the IJ-invasion bonus expires, but there's no sign of anything imminent today.  Steve, however, has been getting great looks at massed Allied shipping and CAP at Oosthaven and Benkolen for weeks now.  He's frothing to get at them and he's had time to orchestrate something.  I expect him to employ his carriers, but no sign of them yet.  However, he's back to taking some chances and leading with his nose.  A big IJN combat TF with three BBs (Mutsu, Nagato, and Yamashiro) steamed into the Java Sea, protected by only light LRCAP.  Just a handful of Dutch bombers sortied without effect, but Steve's playing with fire here.  The Allies have alot of air and sea power close by. 

Japanese at Singapore:  A deliberate attack at 1:1 drops forts to 2 and inflicts heavier casualties on the Allies.  My supply situation is great, so I was expecting to hold for weeks if not a month, but now I think Singers could fall within ten days - perhaps less.  That's bad news as I wanted to get Allied "distractions" underway before Singers fell.

Western DEI:  Three Allied combat TFs are at Oosthaven led by BB Royal Sovereign and a separate stout CA force.  Lots of transports coming in every day now, bringing coastal defense units, engineers, and supply.  I'm using alot of patrols and picket ships to try to avoid a KB ambush, but there's so much activity that "noise" creates confusion.  But that should work both ways.  CVs Enterprise and Yorktown are south of Sabang.  Indomitable and Hermes are further east.  The Sabang invasion TFs begin loading at Colombo and Madras tonight.  D-Day probably seven to eight days.  I hope I still hold Singapore at that time.

China:  The Chinese attack east of Hengyang was an unqualified success, smashing Japan's 104th Division.  It appeared that this division's adjusted AV fell from 450 to about 50, suggesting that supply must be critically short.  I'll give chase a bit while keeping a wary eye on the 5,000 IJ AV at Changsha.  But if that stack is also having supply problems, it may take a long time to recover from the 900 disablements suffered in the attack a few days ago.  Roughing up one IJA division isn't the breakthrough I was looking for, but it's something to start with and should get Steve worried about his flank.

NoPac:  D-Day at Paramushiro is probably three days away.  No signs of detection or opposition.

Situation:  The Allies had a lag in offensive operations for longer than I wanted or should have allowed.  I'm concerned that the delay has allowed Steve to recover a bit of his equilibrium.  I'm also concerned that my pending offensives are a bit to tardy to be as effective as I had hoped.  I furthermore have concerns about triggering 2,500 IJ AV when I invade Para.  Yet the real objective isn't to take and hold Para permanently.  The objective is to disrupt Japanese activity, to force Steve to react to sudden problems (thus preventing him from doing things he wanted to do), and to give the Allies shots at Japan's achille's heel - capital combat ships.  With those objectives in mind, I will proceed as planned.

[Cribtop]

What if the BBs were an effort to test whether you had DBs in bases on Java and Sumatra? Watch out over the next 72 hours if there was no other discernible purpose for that TF.

[paullus99]

It may be a close run, but I think you're "distractions" will come in just fine. It'll pull his attention away from the main point of conflict (or at least where he should be paying attention), and get him back to reacting to you for a change.

If he pushes his capital ships forward & the KB still hasn't put in an appearance - I expect you'll have your own carriers in a good position to take advantage.

[Canoerebel]

3/26/42

Leading with His Nose: BBs Nagato, Yamashiro and Mutsu led a big bombardment run against Batavia, destroying 18 aircraft on the ground and eliminating Batavia's five-level oil refinery (isn't that sort of like peeing in your own drinking water?). During the run, CA Maya got separated and dueled with an American sub that was arriving in port. Neither side took damage to speak of, but then Maya went west while the BBs went east. Allied bombers sortied in small numbers ineffectively, but this is incredibly risky play by Steve. He's sending his most valuable assets into Indian country without CAP in an area bristling with enemy arms - ships and aircraft. He's done this before and paid for it (CA Myoka and three CVL sunk). He got away with it this time, but I'm very surprised to see him doing this again.

Singapore: A Japanese deliberate attack dropped forts to one and reduced the Allied AV to 475. Signers is going to fall way too quickly, especially considering the 42k supplies in place. I had hoped/expected it to hold into early April.

Western DEI: Ships in great quantities continue to move in and out of Oosthaven and Benkolen. Part of the Saban invasion force just departed Madras. The Colombo-based contingent may leave tonight. D-Day perhaps six days. The desireability of this invasion drops markedly once I lose Singapore, so I will reevaluate each turn. A major part of the operation was for the Allied troops to land, take Sabang, and re-embark, leaving the enemy confused when he came to reconquer the base; I don't want to chance getting two American RCT isolated in western Sumatra. But at the moment this is still on.

NoPac: The Paramushiro assault TFs are six hexes from the beaches; the Onnekotan assault TFs are nine hexes distant. D-Day in two days (at least at Para). No signs of detection or enemy activity. In fact, I think the patrol aircraft at Amchitka have been out of operation for several weeks now. Even my TFs at Adak and Attu, which Steve's patrols previously sighted each turn, have been undetected for more than a week.

[GreyJoy]

Hi CR,

do the bombardment run also destroy the industries?

Agree that this is a very risky move, also considering that he has already paid an heavy price for these kinds of actions.

Very very interesting AAR...thanks!

[Cribtop]

Batavia... Wow. That's just... Wow.

[paullus99]

If he hasn't shown his carriers yet, and you have the opportunity to make him pay for future moves like this (3 BBs are worth showing your carriers again), I would certainly recommend it.

He's trying to make up for lost time - though I am surprised that Singapore is already on the ropes, like you, I was hoping it would have held for at least another few weeks. I would expect, if you do lose it, that those PI divisions are coming for Sumatra - sooner rather than later.

[Canoerebel]

With Singapore on the ropes, I'm sure Steve is contemplating other uses for his many available army divisions. If he was truly interested in New Zealand, he may proceed there. He may divert some to China. And/or he may epxedite things in Java and Sumatra.

I don't think the Allied invasion of Paramushiro will alter his short-term strategy. He won't divert ground troops as he can just prep the auto reinforcements he'll receive. He probably won't commit combat ships any time soon given the pending and critical campaign in the DEI. I think the Allies may outnumber Japan if he does send combat ships. The Allies currently have five BB in theater and intend to keep at least three there once this operation is complete.

paullus, I will certainly commit my carriers (or their aircraft, which is a different and less risky proposition) if I catch a whiff of another such foray into the Java Sea or vicinity.

[Canoerebel]

3/27/42

NoPac: The invasion forces are in place and haven't been detected. No signs of enemy opposition. No enemy airfields larger than size one within fifteen hexes of the invasion beaches. Everything is "go." The Paramushiro invasion TF includes 41st Division, a combat engineer unit, and embedded combat ships including BBs Colorado and Warspite, two CLs, a DD, and two DMS. A combat TF flagged by CAs Northhampton and Houston, and an ASW TF, will serves as escorts. Over at Onnekton, the invasion TF includes BB Tennessee, three DDs, and a DMS; the Onne troops are 201 RCT and combat engineers. If things go smoothly, lots of support troops will land once the bases are taken.

Ambush Opportunity: A clever Japanese player might invite an invasion of the Kuriles, both to permit triggering of the auto reinforcments (Japan can put the additional 2500 AV to good use) and to pounce with combat ships and/or carriers on the Allied shipping. The fact that the Japanese haven't even detected the Allied invasion forces worries me, but I've thought this over for weeks. My hunch is that Steve hasn't laid an intricate trap, so the invasion will proceed.

Japanese Reaction: If the invasion succeeds and is a surprise, a new variable will be introduced into Steve's thinking process. He'll have to evaluate the developments, decide whether there is a wider threat to other islands in the Kuriles or even Sikhalin Island (which is lightly guarded), beef up security, and begin to organize countermeasures - aircraft, combat ships, and (eventually) a counter-invasion. This should cause him some unease just as he's preparing to deal with the Battle of the DEI.

Allied Reaction: The Allies also have important decisions to make. Do they withdraw most of the ground troops in recognition that it will be impossible to hold the Kuriles against a strong Japanese counterattack? Or do the Allies build up the bases strongly, counting on the time that the long battle in the DEI will buy to permit strengthening of the bases. The Allies will build and fight in hopes of getting cracks at Japanese combat ships.

Singapore: Another Japanese attack at Singapore came off at 1:1 and dropped forts to zero, but the forts immediately went back to level one. Supply is still good, but Allied AV is down to 381. Japan could take the base tomorrow...or it might hold out awhile yet given the good supply levels. But the fall is imminent and then the Battle for Sumatra will begin in earnest.

Western Sumatra: The Sabang invasion force is off the eastern tip of Ceylon. Barring something unusual, the invasion will proceed. The Allies believe the landing of two American RCT will force Japan to commit at least one division and perhaps as many as three to western Sumatra - a development that should further complicate Japan's decision-making and timetables. As noted previously, the Allies intend to land and then re-embark most of the invasion force so that the Japanese counterattack finds little prey.

Eastern Sumatra: More American fighters arrived bringing the number of Allied fighters in this theater to 500. That number can be augmented by carrier fighters. An American EAB and a big CD unit just arrived at Oosthaven. The EAB remains at Oost to help with forts and airfields. The CD may go to Palembang or perhaps to Benkolen. Three more American engineering units are aboard a TF set to arrive at Oosthaven in four or five days.

Enemy Forces in the DEI: A Japanese carrier of some sort is reported close to Pontianak - another "leading with his nose" example. There remains alot of enemy shipping from Mersing to Singkawang with more around Kendari, but currently no evidence of imminent invasion of Java or Sumatra.

SoPac: A big Kiwi armored unit with Valentine tanks just arrived at Auckland, boosting AV to 600 with four forts. Bettys from Fiji have been flying missions over Pago Pago for a week now. The Allies will not be surprised if the enemy moves on either base - in fact, such moves would be welcomed if they diverted important enemy assets from the DEI. At this time, the Allied garrisons at both bases are "on their own." Reinforcements cannot be spared at a time when there's critical battles pending in more important locations.

Allied Carriers: Hornet arrived five days ago - much later than in other matches I've played. After weighing possible deployment in the Pacific, she was sent to Capetown to join up with the other carriers. Formidable arrived at Colombo. Lex and Sara are 15 days away from ready. York and Ent are southwest of Sabang. Indomitable and Hermes are southeast of Sabang.

The table is set. Let's see what's served.

[Cribtop]

The fall of Singapore is unfortunate. The fall of Singapore around April 1942 is glorious.

[Canoerebel]

So, yer sayin' at Singapore the Allies done well? (I think that's what you're saying.)

The Allies made the right call in defending Singapore rather than evacuating the base - the right call under the particular (and peculiar) circumstances of this game. The extra month or six weeks bought made a huge difference in preparing Sumatra's defenses and in lashing out at Japan from time to time. Singapore cost Japan alot of aircraft, pilots, and ships.

[Cribtop]

Yeah, I was trying to be clever and inscrutable and all, but my point was most JFBs want to take Singers by mid February, or even sometime in January if they pull off the Mersing gambit.