The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[Nemo121]

but i think you all are understimating the strenght of the actual allied position.

No, they are over-estimating your opponent. From the last few days of combat reports it is clear that he doesn't know how to finish you off. He could crush you but I have a feeling that he will allow you to come back from this position. I also think you'll draw all the wrong conclusions from that...

[GreyJoy]

I don't wanna appear overconfident. I am not. Seriously.
I know my numbers are low and getting lower.
The Hurricanes pools are getting dry fast and soon i'll have to rely only on my american squadrons. I still have 116 P-40s in pool but i know these won't last long at these rithms.
However my positions are strong and he's nowhere close to shut down my airfields, while my 4Es keep on showing their fangs and bite him.
 
He has lost more than 1000 planes in the last 8 days, while i've lost 300. His zeros, above all, suffered the most. I bet that at least 2/300 of his crack pilots are lost and we all know that his superiority strongly relies on these pre-war pilots.
 
At the same time when he'll cross the LOD my pools are gonna get refilled with some late model crack british planes (spitfires above all) and i'm not so sure he can risk to face them under these conditions.
 
Anyway, if it's true that you're all overstimating rader...well, i won't spit on my own luck [:D]....afterall i badly need some luck and if it comes under the dress of some doubts of him...well, the better![&o]

[Alfred]

Just a few days into the preliminary operations leading into the siege of Karachi and the Allies' prospects already look bleak.

1. The supply costs just to replace the airframes lost on 25/26 June is over 1200 supply.

2. Over the first 8 days, the Allied airforce has lost 300 planes. That alone wipes out the emergency airframe replacements IF the LOD is crossed.

3. No additional fully trained pilots are released as part of the emergency reinforcements which are triggered IF the LOD is crossed. Not much benefit is gained from superior airframes if they are piloted by inexperienced pilots.

4. Only a small percentage of the emergency airframes which are triggered IF the LOD is crossed, are Spitfires.

5. Japan should be producing enough trained pilots and aircraft to sustain these losses whereas the Allied pools can sustain only a further 1-2 weeks combat at these airframe loss rates.

6. An entire months production of B-17E was lost just on 25/26 June.

Rader would be a very poor player if

(a) he could not adjust his air operations to improve their efficiency

(b) panicked over the air losses he has suffered to date

Alfred

[Nemo121]

Alfred,

However my positions are strong and he's nowhere close to shut down my airfields, while my 4Es keep on showing their fangs and bite him. He has lost more than 1000 planes in the last 8 days, while i've lost 300. His zeros, above all, suffered the most. I bet that at least 2/300 of his crack pilots are lost and we all know that his superiority strongly relies on these pre-war pilots.

re: your point 6... Yeah and that was adjudged a successful operation within this AAR [:D]. See above [8D]


As re: Rader: We'll see his mettle soon enough... but there IS a sense of a slackening of pace when reading this AAR.... this makes me think he isn't fully committed to delivering a killing blow... a blow which won't be successfully opposed if delivered but, if not delivered.... well then GreyJoy will survive and materiel, not nous, will gain him victory [;)]

I, personally, view the lack of KB in the area as follows:
1. Greyjoy isn't spotting it - most likely.

2. Rader determines the risk too great - he is on the cusp of winning a truly war-altering strategic victory. This is the sort of thing KB's builders dreamed of risking KB to win. If he is in this position and won't risk it then his strategic judgement is flawed.

3. Rader thinks a "leaky cordon" is sufficient... Possible but for such great gains a bit more certainty is preferable.

4. Rader has decided not to attack Karachi and trigger those reinforcements- looking increasingly likely. Possibly he wishes to practice his defensive preparations in the 44/45 timeframe in a live game?

5. Rader believes there is something more valuable for KB to be doing elsewhere right now - aka the Marshalls. This would, IMO, be a sign of significantly poor judgement. This seems the second most likely outcome given the recent spottings of planes etc etc. Retaining the Marshalls potentially at the cost of Karachi is a terrible trade.

Of course I think that even in spite of such possible missteps if Rader tries for Karachi it will fall.

Wars are not won by the most brilliant army. They are won by the least incompetent one.

[GreyJoy]

Hi Alfred and Nemo,

well, your considerations are all wise and well agreable. Numbers talk. And they talk clearly: my production is simply too small to hope to win a battle of attrition (despite some days i feel my guys are doing terribly well!).

The true point, imho, is that at this stage (with the decisions taken, good or bad) there simply nothing else i could do but fight till the very last men, ship or plane. And i don't see how my indian defensive strategy could be changed now.

Rader clearly wants to gain the full air superiority before crossing the LOD is crossed. Under this point of view the longer i fight, the longer it will take him to get to Karachi.

It's also true that my retaliation raids will cost me more than the damages inflicted (at least if we consider the production of the b-17s), but keeping them on the airfield, waiting to be destroyed on the ground, doesn't sound to me a viable alternative.
Supply isn't my biggest problem at the moment. I still have 490.000 supplies in my 3 main bases in India and something is still flowing from Aden...so my only real concern is about my fighter pools.

but again, i don't see what option i have now if not capping my bases and fighting for the air supremacy over northen India....


June 27-28 1942

Today Rader decided to stood down his bombers and let the dirty job to his fighters. 200 zeros and 250 oscars swept Adebarad (S).
We put a decent defence and again we won the day with 70 planes lost for me and more than 140 for him...but as we know these numbers aren't enough. Note that today we only lost 13 pilots...not bad i'd say

Tomorrow we'll send again our B-17s hoping to find a place where the AA is less strong than Surat...i'm sure tomorrow will arrive the jap bombers...luckly today both Karachi and Hyderabad gained level 9 AF and forts are building again...now i can operate all my squadrons without problems of coordination (it's been hard to decide every day which group has to stay down and watch their comrades fight and die for the crown...).
hope to reach forts level 9 to Karachi before he arrives here [:)]

Today a jap raider CL attacked one of my TF near Adelaide...how could he get so far south is for me a mystery[X(]...however i had 2 DDs escorting and he eas able to sink only an AK full of american squads...[:o]...then he retreated...we should be safe now...

Again we lost contact with the KB which, imho, has got back to Truk...

I will send some recon in the solomons in the next week...let's see if we can find a soft place in his perimeter...

He sent 2 Bombardment TFs to Abenama...we evacuated the place...mission aborted...[:-]

oh, for those interested...the VPs situation is 9.000 to 30.000 in his favour...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Just a few days into the preliminary operations leading into the siege of Karachi and the Allies' prospects already look bleak.

1. The supply costs just to replace the airframes lost on 25/26 June is over 1200 supply.

2. Over the first 8 days, the Allied airforce has lost 300 planes. That alone wipes out the emergency airframe replacements IF the LOD is crossed.

3. No additional fully trained pilots are released as part of the emergency reinforcements which are triggered IF the LOD is crossed. Not much benefit is gained from superior airframes if they are piloted by inexperienced pilots.

4. Only a small percentage of the emergency airframes which are triggered IF the LOD is crossed, are Spitfires.

5. Japan should be producing enough trained pilots and aircraft to sustain these losses whereas the Allied pools can sustain only a further 1-2 weeks combat at these airframe loss rates.

6. An entire months production of B-17E was lost just on 25/26 June.

Rader would be a very poor player if

(a) he could not adjust his air operations to improve their efficiency

(b) panicked over the air losses he has suffered to date

Alfred

Alfred,
my pilots pool looks still decent, so that's not my first worry. What i really fear is the little numbers of airframes i get even if the LOD is crossed...but what can i do differently now?
I'm sucking every possible P-40 airframe from every theatre...probably i'll be able to collect more 50/60 of them around, exchanging with p-39s....i know it's not much but that's what i have and have to live with it. I managed to get more 18 P-38s today collecting from a west coast group...again not much but maybe a couple of days of fightings are gained...now every day gained is a treasure to my eyes.

And for what concerns b-17s i still have 78 in pools now...enough i'd say

[Fishbed]

Even though Alfred's advices are sound, still, that's quite a unfavorable loss ratio for Japan this early in the war... 2596 vs 1661? Seriously, I know GreyJoy isn't for the win, but at this rate, Rader is not going to get that closer from victory throwing away his air force like that...

[WLockard]

Is there a reason you are using P-40Es and not P-39Ds?

From what I see, the P-39 is superior.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: WLockard

Is there a reason you are using P-40Es and not P-39Ds?

From what I see, the P-39 is superior.

ehmmmm.... well, i always thought the P-40 was superior...but i have to say i never take a deep look and now you really catch me with my pants down[:'(].
I'll give the P-39 a chance so---let's see how it plays!

Thanks for the very usefull info!!!

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Fishbed

Even though Alfred's advices are sound, still, that's quite a unfavorable loss ratio for Japan this early in the war... 2596 vs 1661? Seriously, I know GreyJoy isn't for the win, but at this rate, Rader is not going to get that closer from victory throwing away his air force like that...

...and i seriously hope his pre-war pilots are suffering lots of casualities...those high exp pilots cannot be so easily substituted even with a good training program...not at this rate btw.

(i'm just trying to watch the "good side" of the whole situation...you know...)

[GreyJoy]

I went back and read again Q-Ball and CR AARs. I won't reveal anything to CR but i really think that at this point the games are not anymore comparable. In June Q-Ball was approaching Bombay and was building an airbase at Poona. The air numbers are defenetly different! Q-Ball wasn't using waves of 1000 a/cs from level 9 AFs...
 
how long can my air groups last? how long can they put a decent defensive wall on Karachi? Tough to say...still have 230 fighters in pool now...but at this rate they could last for 1 week...not more...
 
Tomorrow we should recieve another 20k supply convoy from Aden...that should recover the supply loss of the last week of air operations and base buildings.
 
Now i'm just very concerned about my AA...what am i doing wrong with flak?? I have 7 AA units at Hyderabad with lots of 3.7 and 40mm AA guns but it seems they cannot even damage the japanese bombers...even when they fly at 13k...that sounds pretty strange to me...any clue or suggestion? how can i make my AA more effective?

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I went back and read again Q-Ball and CR AARs. I won't reveal anything to CR but i really think that at this point the games are not anymore comparable. In June Q-Ball was approaching Bombay and was building an airbase at Poona. The air numbers are defenetly different! Q-Ball wasn't using waves of 1000 a/cs from level 9 AFs...

how long can my air groups last? how long can they put a decent defensive wall on Karachi? Tough to say...still have 230 fighters in pool now...but at this rate they could last for 1 week...not more...

Tomorrow we should recieve another 20k supply convoy from Aden...that should recover the supply loss of the last week of air operations and base buildings.

Now i'm just very concerned about my AA...what am i doing wrong with flak?? I have 7 AA units at Hyderabad with lots of 3.7 and 40mm AA guns but it seems they cannot even damage the japanese bombers...even when they fly at 13k...that sounds pretty strange to me...any clue or suggestion? how can i make my AA more effective?

Bofors 40mm has ceiling of 9800ft only, and 37mm guns arent any better... Anything heavier there? I know I have massed flak in several places myself(as a Nip player) and B-17s that fly through it all from 88mms, 75mms, DP guns, 37 and 25mm, hundreds of it and at 8000ft, take perhaps 1 OPS loss per every 200 sorties. [:)]

OTOH in my experience the heavier Allied guns are very effective against G4M, G3M, Ki-21 at least, even if they fly pretty high. I tried going higher and higher, I'd take less losses but the hit ratio dropped even more... In the end I traded 2 bombers per bomb hit. Not good enough. [:D]

[GreyJoy]

my B17s have been decimated so far by his flak at Surat flying between 18k and 22k...[:(] and when i say decimated i mean 5 direct flak losses + some 5 more ops every 50 planes!
 
the 3.7mk II should have a cieling of more than 20.000 if i'm not mistaken...and the brits doesn't have anything better at this point[:o]...however in the last raid of 300 bombers flying at 13.000 ft i only manage to take 1 helens with flak shells...[:-]

[GreyJoy]

Ok, time for some new plans in the pacific.
 
Have to consider a new vector.
the choice is between a drive into the Solomons (starting with the conquest of New Caledonia and New Ebrids) or jump to western New Guinea, starting from Cooktown and northern Oz...
 
The NOPAC vector remains active even if it's a sideshow...
 
Any ideas? which would be better? The whole New Guinea - solomons area has been occupied during the first months of war by the japs but, as for the Marshalls, they haven't been built nor fortified...
 
 

[SoliInvictus202]

just wondering - when you come up with a new plan every 1 or 2 weeks - how do you prep your troops for the targets? - it's just that if you land with anything less than 100 percent prep points you'll suffer huge disablement and losses during the landing!....

just something else to consider....

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: SoliInvictus202

just wondering - when you come up with a new plan every 1 or 2 weeks - how do you prep your troops for the targets? - it's just that if you land with anything less than 100 percent prep points you'll suffer huge disablement and losses during the landing!....

just something else to consider....

Yes, you're right...the point is that i'm so frustrated that i want to find a way to get out of this tunnell fast...but your consideration is wise. No need to throw all those preparations out of the window and start all back again. Will stick with the main plans (Marshalls/Gilberts and Iwo Jima) and see what opportunities arise in the next months...
In the meanwhile my CVs will need some major upgrades so...

Thanks!

[jeffk3510]

GreyJoy-

Can you post a map of Eastern Oz (AE Mapwise), Pago Pago, Suva, and all of the those islands that are your lifeline between US and Oz?  It will probably take more than one screen shot.

Would you also be able to list what the strength (LCU & AGs) and buildup (AF, Port, Fort, Supply, and Fuel) is on the following:

Brisbane
Perth
Suva
Pago Pago
Sidney
Cookstown
Townsville
Charters Town

Thanks.  Just wanting to see how you're fairing in an area I haven't heard much from you on.

Thanks.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

GreyJoy-

Can you post a map of Eastern Oz (AE Mapwise), Pago Pago, Suva, and all of the those islands that are your lifeline between US and Oz?  It will probably take more than one screen shot.

Would you also be able to list what the strength (LCU & AGs) and buildup (AF, Port, Fort, Supply, and Fuel) is on the following:

Brisbane
Perth
Suva
Pago Pago
Sidney
Cookstown
Townsville
Charters Town

Thanks.  Just wanting to see how you're fairing in an area I haven't heard much from you on.

Thanks.

Unfortunately there isn't much to speak about it.

Perth has been almost evacuated when we thought his target was Oz. Moved everything back to Adelaide and left there a couple of small garrison units and a base force.

Brisbane hansn't been built cause i concentrated myself in Oz just on forts.
Sydney is the only place built up to the max and it has 1000 AVs.

Cookstown has just been reconquered 1 week ago and it's not built.

Same for the rest of Oz.
Have moved there just a US Infantry Division and an African bde from CT.

Fuel and supply, however, is not a problem in Oz cause i have plenty of them.

Pago pago, Suva and Noumea are not built up (just forts) cause i've tried to secure the first half of the chain (Hawaii, Midway and line islands) before extending westwards. All the supplies and fuel sent to Oz have been shipped via CT in order to avoid his raids (he has made a nasty couple of them in the first 4 months).

So, everything has to be done yet in this part of the world and that's why i need to focus on just one target at time...




June 30, July 1st 1942

A very quiet day. Bad weather prevents any operation in India. We've moved our fighter force back to Karachi in order to mass my defences for the next japanese push.
We'll pay a visit again with B-17s tomorrow (if weather will allow) and hopefully he'll come for Karachi...he'll find 500 fighters there!...that's the best i can do!

Moving engeeneers and seabees to Pago Pago and Suva. hopefully we'll be able to get these two bases operational by the end of the summer.

CV Wasp arrived at PH and now my carrier force is composed of 6 line CVs...not bad!

B24s finally entered into production...only 15/month btw[:o]...they're gonna be important nonetheless

[Canoerebel]

Your opponent has been blockading Karachi, more or less, for two months. He took Bombay, Surat, the base across the bay from Surat, and Socatra in May (if memory serves). For more than a month he's been orchestrating a massive aerial battle for northwest India. He has hundreds of ground units in India. He's had plenty of time since his last major conquests to arrange everything "just so" and to kick off the final campaign to eradicate the Allies in India....

So where is he? What's he doing? Surely he isn't going to get cold feet just when he had everything set up to his liking?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Your opponent has been blockading Karachi, more or less, for two months. He took Bombay, Surat, the base across the bay from Surat, and Socatra in May (if memory serves). For more than a month he's been orchestrating a massive aerial battle for northwest India. He has hundreds of ground units in India. He's had plenty of time since his last major conquests to arrange everything "just so" and to kick off the final campaign to eradicate the Allies in India....

So where is he? What's he doing? Surely he isn't going to get cold feet just when he had everything set up to his liking?

Intel says he's still sending men to Calcutta (couple of regiments reported moving there during the last week)...he has 2200 AVs at Manila (among them the 1st guards tank division).
His main naval surface forces are at Bombay (for sure 4 BBs are there) while 2 more BBs and possibly the KB are at Truk.

That's all i know (or believe to know)

I think he's just waiting to finish my air force in india before crossing the LOD and closing up on Karachi...