Illinois Yankee in the Showa Emperor's Court (Q-Ball v Canoe)

[JohnDillworth]

ou're still not getting the point. Not splitting the KB is a good thing, as it offers more targets for the Allies more quickly. The math is all in their favor. This KB mythology has to end. It is not invincible (Midway?), and it's certainly not invincible on 1:4 VP terms.

No, I concede you point. My point is more to the PBEM game in general. Since the Japanese player never splits the KB, the Allied player never splits their carriers. So once you get into late 43 and on you just have these 2 big blobs of carriers floating about. It's not unusual to see a single big carrier battle in the whole game.

[DTurtle]

Why do you think landing right on Karachi was impossible?

I could post the AV strength he had there when you invaded Ceylon, as I think that it is far enough back in order to be irrelevant from a current ops point of view, but will abstain for now in case someone thinks that I shouldn't.

If no one objects, I can post it tomorrow.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey

I believe the IJN had four large carriers at midway out of a total "maximum" battle force of, what, 7 large and 3 small carriers at that point in the war?

So Midway is really an example of why you should *not* split the KB. If the IJN had sent every carrier they had afloat to midway, they'd have won. Better CAP would have cut down allied strikes and limited IJN losses and the larger number of IJN carriers would have butchered the US on counterstrikes.

The KB, in PH terms, never included 10 carriers. Such a force would have been unweildy in the extreme, and even Midway levels of strike coordination would have been unobtainable. Further, Midway didn't need four sinkings to be an Allied strategic success. More to the point, in game VP terms, which is the topic here, sinking ONE Japanese carrier for the loss of all three USN carriers would have been an Allied win.

Could the USN's three have sunk one IJN if all six PH carriers had been at Midway? Maybe, maybe not. Could they have done so with Devastators upgraded? More likely. Could they have done so with continental LBA help as available from Bombay, Surat, and Karachi? More likely. Could they have achieved a 1:4 VP win with these two advantages, plus a wormhole to duck into? I believe yes, with reasonable certainty.

There are no sure things in war. An AV-seeking war plan is risky. But perhaps only when compared to the sure loss of the war in Japan's future without AV.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

I don't know if Karachi was takeable. I seriously doubt a landing right on it was feasible. An overland march? Possibly, but that last mile or two is very tough, and it would have required an additional 1000 AV or so for garrisons along the way. Bombay would have stayed in my rear (not takeable). If I got to Karachi, Dan would have had 1500 AV at least. How many AV would I need to displace that in a heavy urban hex? 10,000? Not possible.

The most likely scenario is that I would have had Karachi and Bombay under siege. To maintain that, I would have need the KB based at one of those ports between Bombay and Karachi.

The counter to this would be a landing on the Southeast Tip of India. Dan could easily have pullled that off with preparation. That would have flushed out his CVs by about now. That's how it would have played out. A big battle would have erupted because I couldn't allow that landing. Once ashore, I would have had to withdraw from Karachi and Bombay in a hurry.

You'll know more when you read his AAR someday. I believe a landing on Karachi would have succeeded. The issue is when. It would not have succeeded most likely in the phase after you dealt with Calcutta and points east. It needed to be done fast and deep. But you were concerned with the LOD and Socotra in that phase, at least here in public.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: DTurtle

Why do you think landing right on Karachi was impossible?

I could post the AV strength he had there when you invaded Ceylon, as I think that it is far enough back in order to be irrelevant from a current ops point of view, but will abstain for now in case someone thinks that I shouldn't.

If no one objects, I can post it tomorrow.

I wouldn't. It's bad form for us peanut gallery types to get in the habit of posting hard data. Q-Ball will know what was up by and by.

[Kwik E Mart]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: vicberg

Against a good opponent, I don't believe auto-victory is acheivable, as the game is currently structured.

Ah...but is someone who conducts a Sir Robin in extremis a good player?[:)] That is the question.

Alfred

i see the smiley, but i still have to comment that this is like saying that Muhamed Ali wasn't a good fighter because he used the rope-a-dope so much...[8|]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: DTurtle

Why do you think landing right on Karachi was impossible?

I could post the AV strength he had there when you invaded Ceylon, as I think that it is far enough back in order to be irrelevant from a current ops point of view, but will abstain for now in case someone thinks that I shouldn't.

If no one objects, I can post it tomorrow.

Not a good idea. Consider this an objection.

ETA: Posted before I saw the Moose's comments.

[John 3rd]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I will say this, from a historical perspective - when either side split their carriers into non-supporting groups, they took unnecessary losses. For the Japanese, either send all your carriers, or none of them - there are only two types of objectives, those that are worth it and should be given maximum attention or those that aren't and you shouldn't risk your carriers.

The Japanese learned their lessons (or not, as the case may be) at the Coral Sea & Midway.

right, but that lesson comes "pre-learned" in the game. No player splits their carriers. So the Japanese run wild for all of 42 and the Allies "sir-Robin" There is no other sensible course for either player. Now a house rule might fix that, but I don't know how to structure that. Something like the Allies will never have more than 2 carriers in a TF through 42 and the Japanese will never have more than 4 carriers in a TF. But there is ways around that to.

Totally concur with this thinking regarding CTF sizes. The Americans labored under the doctrine of 1 CV/TF throughout 1942. Only occasionally did they pair their CVs during that time.

The Japanese pretty much were wedded to the Division concept and it worked fairly well for composite strikes. Working two Divisions together or a mix of 2 CV/1 CVL is fairly reasonable.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Kwik E Mart

ORIGINAL: Alfred

ORIGINAL: vicberg

Against a good opponent, I don't believe auto-victory is acheivable, as the game is currently structured.

Ah...but is someone who conducts a Sir Robin in extremis a good player?[:)] That is the question.

Alfred

i see the smiley, but i still have to comment that this is like saying that Muhamed Ali wasn't a good fighter because he used the rope-a-dope so much...[8|]

Not the same, you miss the point.

Immediately retreating everything back to Karachi and hiding in port the entire fleet for the whole of 1942 is player exploitation of the game design. In terms of design exploitation it is no different to a player who sends a TF comprised of a single AK to draw the fire of an enemy SC TF and then sending in his own SC TF to duke it out with a now ammo + OP depleted enemy SC TF.

The Grand Campaign spans December 1941 to March 1946. It does not start in April 1943 when the Hellcat becomes available. Any Allied player who cynically takes advantage of the game mechanics, and is allowed to get away with it by the Japanese player, has not demonstrated any skill but simply used the game mechanics to hand him victory on a plate. Normally when a player indulges in game mechanic exploitation, most people call that gamey play, not good play.

Alfred

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: pat.casey


I believe the IJN had four large carriers at midway out of a total "maximum" battle force of, what, 7 large and 3 small carriers at that point in the war?

So Midway is really an example of why you should *not* split the KB. If the IJN had sent every carrier they had afloat to midway, they'd have won. Better CAP would have cut down allied strikes and limited IJN losses and the larger number of IJN carriers would have butchered the US on counterstrikes.

Quite possible. The most the IJN could have mustered in addition to the four Midway carriers were Zuikaku, Ryujo and Zuiho. Shokaku was out damaged and Junyo was too slow to include with the main force.

Going off figures given in Shattered Sword, that would add an extra 55 fighters, 32 dive bombers and 32 torpedo planes to the overall OOB.

[DTurtle]

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I wouldn't. It's bad form for us peanut gallery types to get in the habit of posting hard data. Q-Ball will know what was up by and by.

Fair enough.

[JohnDillworth]

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I wouldn't. It's bad form for us peanut gallery types to get in the habit of posting hard data. Q-Ball will know what was up by and by.


Fair enough.

Just read CR's excellent AAR.

[DTurtle]

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth
Just read CR's excellent AAR.

I have read the other side of this AAR. I have even posted in it. I think players can learn a lot about the misperceptions that both sides have of the capabilities of the other.

Why I wanted to post that number (AV in Karachi during the invasion of Ceylon), is that I think that Q-Ball has a very wrong picture of what amount of forces he would have faced in March/April 1942 in India (at the time he started the invasion of Ceylon).

As was pointed out in the other thread - and was pointed out during the planning/early stages in this thread - it was very clear that Canoerebel was going for an extreme version of the "Sir Robin" defense. This meant that Canoerebel would not fight unless he absolutely had to - and the only way to force him to fight is to very clearly threaten auto victory.

Q-Ball never did this.

I think it was Alfred who questioned Q-Ball on the exact amount of points that Q-Ball could expect through an invasion of India that would not cross the triggering line for reinforcements. It became clear that it would not be enough to force autovictory. This meant - from the very beginning - that Q-Ball would have to trigger those reinforcements if he wanted to threaten autovictory. Nemo - among others - pointed out that those reinforcements largely spawn in Aden and would - just like any other reinforcements to India - have to be transported by sea to India.

This meant that control of Karachi - and to a lesser degree other ports on that coast of India - would be key to being able to invade the whole of India, by shutting off India from any and all reinfrcements, and thereby win autovictory.

This also meant, that threatening/invading Karachi, was also the one and only thing that Q-Ball could have done to force Canoerebel to use his carriers and other forces to reinforce India, as that would be the only way to stop Q-Ball from cleaning up the rest of India.

Q-Ball did not do this, instead slowly slogging his way across India, never closing the flood of reinforcements and supplies into India. Canoerebel never used his carriers, because he didn't need to.

In the end, the "Sir Robin" defense of Canoerebel was never clearly threatened by Q-Ball, and therefore worked by default.

[Patbgaming]

I think it might be kind of interesting if there was some way to charge an Allied player PP's if he has Carriers sitting in port or off map unless they are upgrading or being repaired. I can not see where it would have been politically expedient to have those assets sitting around when troops on the ground are being killed or captured and bases overun. I also can not imagine the Intelligence Coupe that would be required to keep the fact of a Carrier Armada being in a rear area location for a lengthy amount of time while there is extensive fighting going on and the enemy not getting some kind of information about it. Just the amount of noise from the public screaming bloody murder would probably give some intel to the opposing side. Thus the force in being concept IMO is gamey, unless there is increased chances ( the longer you sit ) of the enemy learning where you are hiding. I just don't think that is something that could be kept secret.

Love the AAR's. [&o]

Thank you for the obvious effort placed in maintaining it.

Pat

[JeffroK]

I think any "attack" on CR's tactic is incorrect. Many succesful Generals have fallen back before overwhelming odds to a firm base before hitting back.

He gave QBall every chance to devastate any point he wished to attack.  Karachi should have been smashed so hard from both CV & LBA air as to make it useless. Bombay could equally been hit, even putting a few BB into a dangerous situation would have been worth the risk, after all the Allied CV where not in sight.

Qball should have been able to recce just about every port on the map (I wish the Allies had sub based Recce!)
This should have enabled him to either find the USN CV if they where on the map, or prove that they were hiding off map.  Given the time it takes to get on map from any off map base, he should have been able to set up a target and hit it before any allied force could arrive.

Up to the end of 1943,(maybe mid 42) the Allied player struggles to have any reasonable Fighter or Medium Bomber
force, having to defend the outside of the arc stretches this even further.

If Karachi was decided to be off limits, the IJA should have been shipped back to either Australia or the Pacific and a target chosen to get CR to react. While he may have written off a few bases he could not have kept giving up bases, you could them get CR on your ground rather than waiting for him.

I hope the game has picked up a new lease of life now CR is moving, because any shift to the east front will also find the weaker side scurrying out of harms way to a position out of the chasers supply range!

[JeffroK]

PS.    I dont think QBall has lost the game, he still has most of his offensive force available, if CR sticks his nose out there is still a chance to smack it hard!!

[perkinh]

I have a question that is a little off subject. I have posted before of my dislike for the "Sir Robin", i cant in any way see how the American ( my only reference) public would have continued the fight, or allowed the politicians to stay in office.

After reading an AAR where the allied opponent pulled a " Sir Robin", would you take a game with them? I understand that it is a winning tactic for the allies if the game makes it to the end, but most dont. So if you ( JFB) know your opponent is going to turn turtle do you take a game of boredom with them. There is only two reason i suspect i would.

1) If i thought i had a AV plan

2) Testing strategies, but i would probably have a real game going somewhere else.

Thats why i lurk mostly, to get an idea of how a future opponent may play.

[Q-Ball]

I am re-starting with Canoe after a hiatus; and it will be slow-going for the most part anyway; I can't really play at work anymore, and the family comes first at home. I have a single game going at WITE, but 5 turns a week seems like progress on that game. Still, we continue:

I won't update regularly, but I see Dan posted, so an update on where things are from the Japanese perspective:

Imperial Japanese Navy:

The Allies have really only lost BBs in the opening week of the war (I sank PoW and Repulse, and pretty sure I got 6 of the 8 at Pearl). Other than that, just 1 CA, 1 modern USN CL, and some DDs. Pretty slim. There really hasn't been much in terms of naval battles.

On the flip side, my losses are nearly nothing. I have lost 3 CLs, and I probably have more DDs than I started the war with.

Kido Butai's air losses are light, so the pilot quality is still very good.

MUSASHI and YAMATO have joined the fleet; TAIHO will be completed in 40 days, roughly first week of February 1943, and 2 UNRYUS will follow 60-90 days after. I will probably seek a big CV battle in the near-term. The reality is that any way you slice it, I'm dead-meat in the long-run, but I would like to take some CVs out with me.

IJN basically is intact

Imperial Japanese Army:

The same cannot be said for the Army. I was pretty sloppy getting out of India, that was my big mistake, and the price I paid was huge losses in the IJA.

I have basically lost the equivalent of 5 divisions. Remnants are kicking around India and won't die, inconveniently. I pulled fragments of everything, but not much I can do while pieces roam the Indian countryside. One division was killed entirely, though, and is now re-building on Tinian.

I pulled some troops, and I am now re-deploying everyone defensively. I still have considerable resources, since I have pulled several divisions from Manchuria.

I have a problem though in terms of enough ground troops. I probably don't have tons of time to pull it together, so really need to get cracking.

AIRPOWER:

We are also in great shape here; other than some air combat in India, there really hasn't been much. As a result, my pools are bursting with pilots and planes. I would WELCOME an opportunity to trade blows with Allied air.

The IJAAF is standardizing on the TOJO fighter (not the 40mm version), and the Helen IIa, the one with ARMOR. All IJAAF bomber units are training on LOW-N skills; set to 1000ft, I expect those Helens to wrech havoc on transports. Or bounce bombs off BBs and get chewed to bits by flak, one or the other.

Of course, we have tons of BETTYs. The pilots in my BETTY units are elite; we have lost hardly ANY in combat.

Our airforces, like our Navy, are pretty fresh.

Allied Intentions:

Not really sure what Dan is up to; quick rundown of the possibilities, and preparations.

I know his Carriers are currently in, or close to, the Indian Ocean, and I suspect they have been there since I landed in India:

SE ASIA: Dan had great success rolling through Burma vs. Miller, and may try it again. This time, we have a House Rule vs. using Restricted Units, so he will have to buy the Indian Army. Chinese Can't be used, aside from those NCAC units.

The Indian Army took some lumps during the invasion, and it will be awhile before being up to full-strength.

I don't have the ground troops, though, to defend Burma rock-solid. I'm not going to try.

Thailand offers much better terrain, and you can't get outflanked as badly like you can in Burma. Moulmein and Chaing Mai are chokepoints, plus I can use the RTA, which is a bonus. (Sorta). We are going to mount a flimsy defense of Burma, but Thailand is the real defense line. Even then, he can land on the Isthmus of Kra anytime after mid-1943 and unhinge that defense. So it goes.

Overall risk is MEDIUM: I think the UK and Indian Armies need time to rebuild, as they suffered high losses in India. That is counterbalanced, perhaps, by the presence of US ARMY troops in India.

SUMATRA/JAVA:

This area has a high probability of attack. I know Dan likes the "Home Run" and Sumatra or Java would be swinging for the fences. Especially Sumatra, which has all the Oil.

Sumatra has to be priority #1, simply because that's where the FUEL is, and without FUEL, the Empire withers and dies. Padang, Benkolen, Sabang, and Oosthaven are the likely landing points, so they have gotten attention from fort diggers and the like. I already have a string of large airbases around Palembang, with an Air HQ.

Java is less-well fortified, though has a couple divisions. Java's position is slightly less strategic than Sumatra, but it's getting attention as well.

I have a seaplane base on the Cocos Is, and a string of pickets West of Sumatra and Java, keeping an eye on things.

Overall risk is HIGH; I was scared to death of a landing at Padang or Benkolen in Fall of 1942, which would have trapped the entire IJA in India (!), so I started putting units there at that point. I still think high-risk here.

SOUTHERN DEI:

This is also a likely spot to attack; it's less dangerous to me than Sumatra or Java, but nonethless big trouble if the Allies get established. I used this route vs. Cuttlefish, and it worked well.

The Allies recently landed and took Exmouth. I didn't have a large garrison there, and I don't all along the Australian coast; it's kind of a trap for the Japanese, and I can't afford to have more troops cut-off where they can't do any good.

TIMOR has a large garrision, a Division-plus. I am building a string of bases at Waingapu, Den Passar, Roti, etc. I also have 6000 troops on HORN ISLAND, well-dug in, to put a stopper on the Torres Strait.

I also have a division at Darwin; that will be pulled, and redeployed to cover some of these bases.

Risk here is HIGH, on par with Sumatra/Java. I know he is moving in Australia, and the US Navy is about. This is a problem area.

New Guinea/Solomons:

I would be surprised if Dan attacked here.

I have a Division at Port Moresby, plus base troops around Lae, with several airfields built there. This cluster is really there to watch the Torres Strait, not necessarily New Guinea, but it serves a dual purpose.

I have another AIR HQ, plus an airbase cluster, at Lunga/Tassafaronga/Tulagi, which are all large airbases.

TRUK has a division in reserve; this unit I just used to squash an Allied landing at Wake that went badly for Dan.

I still occupy Noumea, but only have 2,000 troops there. LUGANVILLE will be evacuated as soon as Noumea falls. I have no interest in defending the New Hebrides; they just stick out there, too easy to cut-off.

Risk in this area is LOW; I think Dan would be doing me a favor coming through the Solomons. I plan to not put much there other than base forces and construction troops.

CENTRAL PACIFIC:

Not sure what that Wake Invasion was; I think it was diversionary, since his Carriers were NOT in support of it. It did work, in that KB was NOT off the Australian coast when he invaded Exmouth.

At any rate, stacking lots of troops in all those ATOLLS isn't really a good idea. If the Allies truly want it, they can bring BBs and Airpower and blast whatever is on the rock to bits, and take it. No point wasting units. Still, each ATOLL gets a Nav Gd and a Base Force, to make him fight for it.

The big commitment is in the Mariannas. I am already putting at least a Division on every island, and enough shovels to really make them nasty. I will wait on using mines, but later one we will also dump mines everywhere. I don't get alot, but I haven't used ANY, so the pool keeps growing.

If Dan moves in the Cent Pac, I think he will nibble on the edges, then go for the Mariannas. As long as the IJN is intact, I don't see a major move in this area.

Risk here is LOW-MEDIUM; I don't think he is committed to it really that little diversion. But I can't blow it off completely, and I am not in the Mariannas.

NORTHERN PACIFIC:

This area has concerned me somewhat. I have invested alot of troops to secure it, as well as construction and air assets.

It's certainly secure at the moment, because it's winter. No chance of landing before March 1943.

Landing here triggers a pile of reinforcements for the Japanese, so I am counting on using those to counter an invasion.

Overall Risk here is MEDIUM, although it's NIL for 3 more months.

[Olorin]

SE ASIA: Dan had great success rolling through Burma vs. Miller, and may try it again. This time, we have a House Rule vs. using Restricted Units, so he will have to buy the Indian Army. Chinese Can't be used, aside from those NCAC units.

Hi Q-Ball, I have a question on this: if he can't use the Indian Army in Thailand, how many Commonwealth divisions would you expect him to master in the theater and how many divisions do you plan to assign to the Burma Area Army?

[crsutton]

Welcome back! This was my favorite AAR and when you bailed for WITE is was just like when my wife left me. (Except, of course, you did not take the dog with you.) Just bear in mind. In scen #2 you will have the resources to rebuild your lost infantry, and considering that it gave you an extra three divisions or so, you are not so bad off. The other thing about scen #2 is you will have overwhelming air power until well into mid 1943. In my game as the Allies it is late 43 and I am just catching my breath. You can do an awful lot that you normally would not consider under this umbrella of air. Don't worry about the end result of the game. When it is all over we will let you know who really won...[;)] I won't comment much as I am commenting on Canoe's AAR but I will be reading.