Ambush Opportunity: A clever Japanese player might invite an invasion of the Kuriles, both to permit triggering of the auto reinforcments (Japan can put the additional 2500 AV to good use) and to pounce with combat ships and/or carriers on the Allied shipping. The fact that the Japanese haven't even detected the Allied invasion forces worries me, but I've thought this over for weeks. My hunch is that Steve hasn't laid an intricate trap, so the invasion will proceed.
Especially, if that clever Japanese player has ever read any of your previous AARs.....
3/28/42
Opening the email to see what had been served on this momentus turn, here was Steve's comment: "Quite the dilemma you've presented me with. What to do about it...."
Paramushiro/Onnekotan Jima: The Allies achieve surprise and the landings go like clockwork - confirming earlier tests that showed little or no damage to valuable transports by Paramushiro's coastal defense guns when battleships were embedded in the amphibious TFs. Onnekotan Jima was vacant. Excerpts from the combat report (for those most interested in the effects of Para's guns):
Pre-Invasion action off Paramushiro-jima - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
27 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
BB Warspite, Shell hits 2
BB Colorado
CL Phoenix
CL Trenton
AP President Jackson
DD King
Japanese ground losses:
112 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
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Amphibious Assault at Paramushiro-jima
TF 236 troops unloading over beach at Paramushiro-jima, 137,47
Allied ground losses:
106 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 18 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 6 (1 destroyed, 5 disabled)
Vehicles lost 5 (2 destroyed, 3 disabled)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Onnekotan-jima
TF 380 troops unloading over beach at Onnekotan-jima, 136,48
Allied ground losses:
374 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 62 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 21 (0 destroyed, 21 disabled)
Vehicles lost 12 (1 destroyed, 11 disabled)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Invasion Support action off Paramushiro-jima
10 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.
Allied Ships
AP President Jackson
DD King
Allied ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
What's Next: At Para, the Allies landed 350 AV that should easilly overcome the organic defense of 35 AV tomorrow. Onnekotan is vacant and will likewise change hands. I will wait until the bases change hands before sending in the second waves (so that Steve doesn't know exactly what he's facing). This will include a base force at Para and artillery, coastal defense, and combat engineers at both bases. The Allies may also orchestrate a quickie invasion of Ketoi Jima, which should also be vacant.
Thereafter: The first order of business will be to extract the APs and xAPs and get them safely back to the west coast. They're critical to the next order of operations, which is likely to be an invasion in the Gilberts while Japan is focusing on the DEI and the Kuriles. Most of the Allied combat ships will remain in NoPac - both for defense and, hopefully, to take cracks at enemy combat ships. To this point, Steve is only aware that Warspite and Colorado are present. He doesn't know about Tennessee, Maryland and Idaho. I can handle whatever he sends short of carriers, and if he sends carriers, he's going to pay in the DEI, which is the whole idea behind this operation.
Supply and Other Matters: Both Onne and Para have very low supply capacities. The Allies will build the airfields as rapidly as possible to prepare for a long siege. Two ACM are just to the NE, so the Allies will have both bases mined in short order. The Allies will use DD patrols to form a picket line to provide warning of enemy carrier raids.
Singapore: The daily Japanese attack fell apart this time, coming off at 1:3, dropping forts to zero (which then build back to level one at the end of the turn), and causing heavier Allied casualties. The good supply level is proving to be a problem for Japan. Steve may have to rest his troops a day or two or three. That could be a critical window allowing the Allied invasion of Sabang to happen while the Malacca Straits are still "friendly."
Western Sumatra: The Sabang invasion TFs are well east of Ceylon. D-Day in roughly three to four days. One unit is at the base, but it should be small and poorly supplied since Steve has only been able to take bases, reinforce, and supply by air. In fact, I don't think he even has a base force at Sabang, meaning no patrol aircraft. That too has been a big help with so much Allied shipping to and from Colombo passing just to the south.
Eastern Sumatra: The American CD unit will remain in strategic mode at the midway point between Benkolen, Palembang and Oosthaven, able to report to the most threatened base when then time comes. An important convoy carrying three American engineer units is just a few days away from Oosthaven. That should be the last of the engineering units.
China: The IJ division roughed up near Hengyang managed to escape its pursuers by a single day, but has no moved into a hex where a fresh Chinese corps has also just arrived. So hopes are high that the Chinese can handle the depleted Japanese. The Japanese stack at Changsha hasn't moved.
What Now? The amount of pressure on Japan just increased and should increase again in the near term. Since Japan is very powerful, the Allies are going to pay, but there should be opportunities for the Allies to strike an enemy that will be anxious and over-anxious to regain control. Benefiical attrition is the Alllied goal in the coming weeks...but I also expect that these developments may halt or delay enemy plans for new conquests in the Pacific or elsewhere. The Allies will almost certainly lose Para in the coming months, but there will be bases preserved elsewhre as a result.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Good catch Canoerebel, even though I guess he could really take that back swiftly even without the carriers, or only a couple of them, and a huge invasion fleet made of AKLs... He can pretty much bombard the place into submission, and it's not the pre-war BB that will be a problem, by night they may be little more than mere target practice for trained IJN cruisers by night. You are really very far from your bases... But well, there's at least one week to breathe. And subsequently many more to go, I hope.
Nibbling around the edges & distracting him while building up for a true offensive operation - all good moves on your part. The follow-up operation at Sabang should be interesting as well, to see how he reacts.
Hopefully Singapore will hold for at least one more attack (perhaps two) - have you already gotten the cadres out?
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
Either the embedded BBs neutered Para's CD guns (my battleships used up all their big-gun ammo), or the CD guns aren't nearly as effective as they were in my game with Miller when I lost a score of transports there. Warspite took the heaviest damage in the engagement - two SYS. Colorado took one.
In planning the invasion, the biggest concern was damage to the Allied transports. Those APs are gold and will be needed again soon. None of them took any damage and all depart for the Aleutians tonight. Some xAP and xAK remain behind to finish unloading.
Warspite, Colorado and Trenton will need to retire to the Dutch Harbor where two AEs await to replenish. In their absence, BBs Tennessee, Maryland and Idaho will handle things.
Shimishura Jima's airfield went to level two today. A big part of the Allied comfort level in arranging this was the absence of enemy airfields larger than level one within a radius of 15 hexes. So had this happend just a few days ago, I would have reconsidered and wondered whether Steve was looking for something. SigInt reports Shimishura held by just an engineer unit of 1,000 men. The Allies will consider mounting a quick no-prep operation to take this base - probably not, but I'm going to give it alot of thought. If I decide to do so, the time to do it is immediately (but I won't expose the APs that far forward).
I'm really looking forward to the Sabang operation. The risks are low and I have a hunch it will really cause consternation in the enemy camp.
As for Singapore, after this last attack at 1:3 odds Steve will have to rest his troops for a day or two. If he does so for just one day, forts will go to level two (they're already at 1.63). That might buy at least one more attack. Each day Singapore survives makes the pending Sabang invasion that much more effective in my opinion.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
There are obvious costs involved in invading the Kuriles - the release of 2,500 AV to Japan being the most obvious. (In that regard, Fishbed began his post above: "Good catch Canoerebel, even though I guess he could really take that back swiftly even without the carriers, or only a couple of them, and a huge invasion fleet made of AKLs..." What I think Fishbed meant to say: "You big dummy. You are toast. What were you thinking?")
But the operation also results in quiet ripples that radiate outwards, touching distant shores in unexpected ways. Just a few examples:
1. Japan recently paid alot of PP to buy 52nd Division, which is on the way to Mersing and thence to Singapore. How many PP does Japan have left? It costs money to buy the 2,500 AV in auto reinforcements, so Steve will probably have to use alot of PP before he can mount a counterinvasion in the Kuriles. If that's true, what units was he planning to buy to use in distant lands that won't be available for a long time to come?
2. While an enemy invasion of India was already unlikely, it was a prospect the Allies had to consider since I currently have just 2,500 AV there. There was a small but troubling possibility that Steve, under tutelage of experienced players like Alfred or Chickenboy, might follow the conquest of Singapore with a big invasion of lightly defended India. The sudden need for ships and men in NoPac reduces that possibility to almost nil.
3. That means I no longer feel a great deal of pressure to pay the PP to buy 27th USA Division when it arrives in Capetown in eight days. I want to get it to India for possible offensive use, but in the meantime I'm considering an invasion of Amchitka Island. I have a RCT at Adak Island 100% prepped, but I think I need another 100 to 150 AV. I can buy three small Canadian brigades (100% prepped, total AV about 135) at Victoria for about 400 PP. I'm leaning towards proceeding as that will extinquish an important Japanese forward observation post and add to the enemy's consternation. The Allies will seem to be active everywhere.
The ripplies from the Kuriles invasion will be felt by both sides for a long time to come.
P.S. SigInt just showed the enemy garrison at Amchitka consists of 61st Infantry Group. Anyone know how strong that unit is off the top of your head? (I can open a Scenario Two to find out, but one of you may know.)
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
CR...i wish i could have the strategical vision you have.
Everything sounds simple, logic and effective.
Japan won't be able to ignore your presence there. At the same time he'll be forced to invest huge assets if he wants to dislodge you from the K....but those assets won't be used to extend the historical perimeter (say India, Oz, NZ or whatever)...
Great move!
Well, strategic vision is almost entirely attributable to experience. Play the game enough and you have alot better feel for what you can do when and where, and what you need where and when in order to do it. Many of us forum regulars have played enough to benefit from experience, so by no means am I exceptional. I think the "elite level" is reserved for those few who: (1) delve into the intracacies of the game mechanics and unit data to figure out how to maximize everything, and (2) know how to read their opponents and how to prod them into doing things they want and can take advantage of. I'm not gifted in either of those two categories. In fact, I am probably well below average in the first.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
Canoe,
Not sure the level of self-deprecation is warranted. I closely followed your AAR vs Q-Ball (as a lurker), and have been following this one. Your versatility is impressive. Moreover, (and not that I know much, but just looking at the results) you learned a LOT from one game to the next and apply it in masterful fashion. I have to say that since I instinctively root for the underdog, I've been hoping Chez gives you a bloody nose, but that's looking less and less likely.
"If you want to make peace, you don't talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies." - Moshe Dayan
I would second the brave Israeli General's comments and re-visit a bit of praise from earlier in the AAR, namely that you adopted a radically different style of play in this game from the more defensive posture shown in the Q-Ball AAR. I believe this difference threw your opponent a curve ball and he has yet to re-establish his mental equilibrium. Well done.
As your friend and fellow Southerner I'm ecstatic. [&o]
Hmm, I just tracked down 61st Infantry Group. This is the unit SigInt reports at Amchitka Island. The unit begins the war in Japan and is restricted. It has an AV of about 235. That's much more powerful than I had expected to encounter at Amchitka, given cursor reports that the garrison numbers about 4k (there's also a small engineer or base force there).
I might try landing just the 100%-prepped RCT currently at Dutch Island, preceeded by a battleship bombardment, to gain a measure of the strength of the enemy garrison. I can bring more if needed. I don't think Steve will reinforce Amchitka since he has other pressing matters and since Adak Island, the nearby Allied base, has a big enough airfield to handle bombers and to therefore discourage enemy encroachment.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
What is strategically vital about Amchitka? It seems to me that you are diverting resources from strategically important/vital objectives to retake some real estate which won't give you a new capability, won't dislocate an enemy defensive line and won't materially improve the security of your SLOCs.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Just a note on SigInt, I find it deliciously unreliable. Sure it's very helpful. I've used it to good effect. But then I also got an enemy troop count - for one of my own bases. The guys went and looked behind the tents, under the cots, and they assured me no enemy were present.
Obviously I don't know from a hill of beans what is at that base or where that unit really is, but the SigInt can be wrong.
Amchitka is an enemy listening post deep inside the new lines - patrol aircraft can monitor Allied shipping and other activity.
Over the next few weeks, I want to buy some restricted Canadian and American units to help bolster Allied defenses in the Kuriles and in the Aleutians. Some of these units are 100% prepped for Amchitka. Invading Amchitka should be a snap - it's well behind where I expect to find enemy combat ships for quite some time. So get in, get out, eradicate a potentially troublesome enemy outpost, and then strengthen the Allied MLR.
Doing this won't delay - at least in any meaninful way - any other Allied operations. I'll be using xAPs currently on the west coast, while the APs used in the Kuriles retire to the west coast to prepare for upcoming operations in CenPac or SoPac.
Does that make sense or am I making a mistake in my analysis?
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
I think it boils down to whether you have something more strategically vital to do with the Canadian LCUs and the shipping necessary for the Amchitka Op. I would certainly forgo the invasion if it turns out the 235 AV enemy unit IS there (I'd do a ground bombing "recon" to confirm) and you need more forces than are currently prepped.
Could you instead seize another island in the Kuriles? Capture the Oil at Shikuka? Grab Marcus Island to open a new front?
