Economic Modeling 1: Exporting Allied Resources

[el cid again]

As with many other things, AE is a marked improvement over WITP in its economic model.
As with many other things, this is because it has more inputs under designer control.
But as implemented, stock suffers from some serious economic issues. Serious in that they
render play so grossly ahistorical there is almost no possible point in trying to make
reasonable historical choices.

In no respect is this more the case (probably) than the matter of "Why should the Allies
export resources from the theater?" It is tantamount to asking "Why does the theater matter
in a strategic sense." Since we cannot simulate specific resources, we are limited to the general
concept of exporting resources at all. But as implemented - never mind it could be otherwise -
stock gives virtually no incentive for Allied ships to leave the theater with resources. Which
means one of the great Allied advantages is not modeled - ships had real jobs on ALL legs of their
voyages. Without this dimension, playes probably need far fewer ships - and have "AKs to burn" -
no doubt for battle fanboys - but hardly realistic.

To solve this problem, I propose that locations like Eastern USA, Eastern Canada and UK be
given significant amounts of HI and/or LI - and that players who export resources
to these locations be rewarded with extra supply points. At the same time, the "free supply points"
of these locations ought to be reduced significantly - to make there be a need for more.

[Bo Rearguard]

With the possible exception of rubber, the United States was virtually self-sufficient in resources. Whatever it couldn't get was readily available in Canada or Latin America. The theater was important in the strategic sense for the US in terms of limiting the Japanese Empire's expansion, more than for access to raw materials. Maybe less so for overrun colonial nations like France and the Netherlands, but they were in no position to exploit those resources anymore.

[el cid again]

False. In USN, they teach as part of basic training the USA needed to import 76 strategic materials.

In the case of the Pacific - the most critical import (lost very early) - was Tin - most of the world's production came from
NEI - esp Bankha Island. Because of that loss - Peru had to be developed for tin production - and it was never anything like
the same quantity - so tin became rationed and recycled. If we had a detailed simulation, the Allies would export as much
as they could - and sabotage the mine probably if they could.

But what really mattered was the metals and minerals from New Caledonia. Here is most of the
world's antimony production - needed to harden bullets - and for some steels. There is only one antimony mine in
North America - a tiny one - at Thompson Falls Montana (actually many miles from there - but it is the way it is listed).
Otherwise, antimony is only made as a byproduct a couple of places.

New Caledonia was critical for many other ores - for example chromium.

To that add AUS itself - a vital source of many things that grew as the war went on. There were also valuable exports from
India.

The most important economic material after petroleum for warmaking is steel. The total steel production capacity of a nation is
hard to change rapidly - and it is used for so many things one must make trade off decisions. Factory frames, warships, rifles,
tanks, rail lines, etc. Yet if one cannot get enough iron ore, that is no longer the issue - one cannot run the factories at capacity.
No point in expanding steel production - even for the medium term - unless you can get iron ore and coking coal to make it
in that greater quantity.

A peculiar wartime shortage was copper. Peculiar as nominally we had a good deal of domestic production. We even opened old mines
with marginal remaining ores - there is one in Upper Michigan that gives tours today - just to add a bit more to the total. The problem
was the war demanded vast amounts of copper wire - for all sorts of things - and here again - expanding production at the manufacturing
level matters little unless one can expand supply and keep it expanded. So it turned out that wartime imports were welcome. The nearest
major source was in Canada. But we took it by the shipload from anywhere we could find it - and used every bit of it - and could have used
more with profit.

Another big problem re Asia was rubber. We invented artificial rubber processes to mitigate it. We also started production in South America
to mitigate the loss of rubber from SE Asia. Again - the Allies should export every bit of it they can - while they can - if modeling good strategy.

This is just top of my head - nothing like the total picture. Read AUS accounts for a better sense of what was exported, and how valued it was
at the time. I want to reward players who do export.

[PaxMondo]

While not disagreeing with you on the specifics, I'm not sure I agree with the direction. WitP-AE wasn't designed as an economic simulation of the war. With only 3 resources groups simulated, I think you are going to really struggle to get much improvement and for what benefit? Yes, antimony and tin and a host other trace minerals are important. But as GER and JAP demonstrated (and the US to a certain extent) they are replaceable. Do you get the same result? No. Does it change the course of the war? Not much. Overall economy, strategy, and specific battle outcomes dwarf the impact that the amount of Sn in your economy had.

Anyway, if you are not familiar with Paradox Victoria, I would suggest you get it and play it. It does attempt to model something like 50 resources in a world wide economy. Very difficult to do and even then still not at the granularity that you are suggesting here.

[el cid again]

Then remove the ships from the game needed to move resources. The ships
should be hard pressed in 1942 - agonize over almost every one -
because so many long voyages are needed to get thruput - and you do not
lightly commit ships to invasions.

Even that is a bad solution - ships carry cargo BOTH ways - units and supplies
and fuel outbound - resources (mostly) and maybe oil back. Unless they do
both - over long distances - you get no sense of what theater commanders have
available for operations.

[wdolson]

The vast majority of Allied shipping between the US and other points was deadheading back to the US.  For the materials needed in the largest quantities, the US was self sufficient.  It was the largest oil producer in the world and was a major exporter both before the war and during it.  Most of the oil used by the Allies in the European theater came from the US.  The only exception of any significance was the British 8th Army which ran on Middle Eastern oil.  After Africa was secure, Middle Eastern oil also fueled the Italian campaign to a large degree.

Sending oil to the US would have been coals to Newcastle. 

There were some ores used in relatively small quantities that were in short supply, but as others have pointed out, it would be virtually impossible to model in a game of this scale.

Bill

[Andrew Brown]

There were some ores used in relatively small quantities that were in short supply, but as others have pointed out, it would be virtually impossible to model in a game of this scale.

Yes that is my view as well. We don't have the "granularity" in AE to simulate individual resource types.

However one thing I am working on for my own scenario (still being developed) is to add industry to Cape Town, and a reduction in Daily supply there, to push the Allies to ship excess resources from Australia there. This simulates the export of resources from Australia to other parts of the Commonwealth (i.e. the UK).

Andrew

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown

There were some ores used in relatively small quantities that were in short supply, but as others have pointed out, it would be virtually impossible to model in a game of this scale.

Yes that is my view as well. We don't have the "granularity" in AE to simulate individual resource types.

However one thing I am working on for my own scenario (still being developed) is to add industry to Cape Town, and a reduction in Daily supply there, to push the Allies to ship excess resources from Australia there. This simulates the export of resources from Australia to other parts of the Commonwealth (i.e. the UK).

Andrew

Andrew,

Have a look at the economic aspects of Treespider's mod. Regarding Australia, I think he reduced resources there, requiring more stuff to be shipped in. Resource and oil have both been added at Cristobal (Panama Canal Zone) to simulate those available from the US to be shipped to Australia. Not sure if he touched Cape Town, but the changes to Australia and shipping resources & oil to there might be more significant to the game than shipping stuff back to Cape Town anyway.

He also did as you did in CHS and added lots of stuff in North America that needs to be repaired (1,000 supply per repair!) so that supply available from NA ramps up.

[Buck Beach]

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown

There were some ores used in relatively small quantities that were in short supply, but as others have pointed out, it would be virtually impossible to model in a game of this scale.

Yes that is my view as well. We don't have the "granularity" in AE to simulate individual resource types.

However one thing I am working on for my own scenario (still being developed) is to add industry to Cape Town, and a reduction in Daily supply there, to push the Allies to ship excess resources from Australia there. This simulates the export of resources from Australia to other parts of the Commonwealth (i.e. the UK).

Andrew

Paradox Victoria

I would be interested in that.

Buck

[el cid again]

ORIGINAL: wdolson

The vast majority of Allied shipping between the US and other points was deadheading back to the US.  For the materials needed in the largest quantities, the US was self sufficient.  It was the largest oil producer in the world and was a major exporter both before the war and during it.  Most of the oil used by the Allies in the European theater came from the US.  The only exception of any significance was the British 8th Army which ran on Middle Eastern oil.  After Africa was secure, Middle Eastern oil also fueled the Italian campaign to a large degree.

Sending oil to the US would have been coals to Newcastle. 

There were some ores used in relatively small quantities that were in short supply, but as others have pointed out, it would be virtually impossible to model in a game of this scale.

Bill

Sending oil to the US would have been coals to Newcastle.

Actually - with the exception of oil from Venezuela - I do not think oil should be sent to the USA - which was the largest producer as you say.
Oil - not really that much - but enough to require tankers - should go to UK or Canada - from Cristobol Colon - or to the US West Coast.

The main thing that ought to be done is send RESOURCES to the USA. If you read the histories of the merchant marine - Japan is criticized
for not using reciprocal or triangle routings - going home empty - while the Allies are alleged to have done both substantially. Anyway - because of
resources not available in quantity in North America (Canada helped a lot) - some must be sent - and our system does not allow us to say "this is
chromium" or "bauxite" or whatever.

And also shipping ores to other places - the Commonwealth in particular - ought to matter.

Now shipping oil to Australia and India ought to matter too. But they are better modeled.

It appears one problem is lack of resources and industry on the map. Many places have industry not present in the stock data.
As if no one had time to look up each place - which is the only way to figure it out.

[Andrew Brown]

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Andrew,

Have a look at the economic aspects of Treespider's mod. Regarding Australia, I think he reduced resources there, requiring more stuff to be shipped in. Resource and oil have both been added at Cristobal (Panama Canal Zone) to simulate those available from the US to be shipped to Australia. Not sure if he touched Cape Town, but the changes to Australia and shipping resources & oil to there might be more significant to the game than shipping stuff back to Cape Town anyway.

I read about Treespider's mod. It is interesting but I prefer a different approach. As Australia was a net exporter of resources (tonnage wise) I prefer to model it that way, with the resources UK bound instead of to the USA. Most of the material shipped from Australia for the USA was, I believe, "supplies" for the US forces operating in the SWPAC (and maybe SOPAC??) areas, not raw resources, so I have Australia as a net supply exporter as well. What Australia imported, apart from oil/fuel, was military hardware, but as has been discussed that is not modelled in the game as things that need shipment - they just appear in the equipment pools. It's no easy matter to simulate things accurately given the crude tools at our disposal in AE!

Then again, if anyone does have information about raw resources being shipped from Australia to the USA during the war, I would be interested to see it.

Unfortunately spare time for me is in very short supply these days so work on my AE mod is painfully slow.

He also did as you did in CHS and added lots of stuff in North America that needs to be repaired (1,000 supply per repair!) so that supply available from NA ramps up.

I didn't do that for the stock AE scenarios, but it is a good idea. I believe it should be done in India as well, to cut the early supply levels right back. It can be applied to Australia to a lesser extent as well.

Andrew

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Andrew,

Have a look at the economic aspects of Treespider's mod. Regarding Australia, I think he reduced resources there, requiring more stuff to be shipped in. Resource and oil have both been added at Cristobal (Panama Canal Zone) to simulate those available from the US to be shipped to Australia. Not sure if he touched Cape Town, but the changes to Australia and shipping resources & oil to there might be more significant to the game than shipping stuff back to Cape Town anyway.

I read about Treespider's mod. It is interesting but I prefer a different approach. As Australia was a net exporter of resources (tonnage wise) I prefer to model it that way, with the resources UK bound instead of to the USA. Most of the material shipped from Australia for the USA was, I believe, "supplies" for the US forces operating in the SWPAC (and maybe SOPAC??) areas, not raw resources, so I have Australia as a net supply exporter as well. What Australia imported, apart from oil/fuel, was military hardware, but as has been discussed that is not modelled in the game as things that need shipment - they just appear in the equipment pools. It's no easy matter to simulate things accurately given the crude tools at our disposal in AE!

Then again, if anyone does have information about raw resources being shipped from Australia to the USA during the war, I would be interested to see it.

Unfortunately spare time for me is in very short supply these days so work on my AE mod is painfully slow.

He also did as you did in CHS and added lots of stuff in North America that needs to be repaired (1,000 supply per repair!) so that supply available from NA ramps up.

I didn't do that for the stock AE scenarios, but it is a good idea. I believe it should be done in India as well, to cut the early supply levels right back. It can be applied to Australia to a lesser extent as well.

Andrew

It's possible he did it for India too - I'm not sure. Either way, he might be able to provide those sections of CSV files for you to cut in as a starting point and save you some work.

[el cid again]

I also used the idea in RHS - and Mifune thinks we should do it in AE - make expansion of the economy by repairing damaged devices - which the
Allies can turn on or off - but the less they use early the more supplies they get later.

[bigred]

Without this dimension, playes probably need far fewer ships - and have "AKs to burn" -
no doubt for battle fanboys - but hardly realistic.

No wonder Nemo121 is able to kick ass using xAKs as cannonfodder... There should be some hard code to force transport TFs to travel in 5 pack convoys.

[LargeSlowTarget]

Nice to see that others think along the same lines. [/align] [/align]In my personal mod the US has to import ressources from the rest of the world in order to run its industry at full capacity.[/align] [/align]The Allies have to repair between 50% and 66% of the industry and ressources in US, Australia / NZ and India, in order to model early "shoestring" conditions and rising production over time.[/align] [/align]I have reduced "free supplies" at USA bases to a level that repairs will consume most of them, while the bases on other continents will need to draw the supplies from industry production and/ imports.[/align] [/align]Furthermore, I have added ressources at the Canal Zone and Capetown, plus some oil at the Canal Zone (Venezuela), plus light industry in England and Eastern US (lots).[/align] [/align]This will keep much of the merchant fleet well occupied (I also use the "stockpile" option to 'force' the use of coastal shipping from ressource centers to industry centers in Australia and NZ). [/align] [/align]I must admit that my approach is not overly scientific but seat-of-the-pants and that the values I have chosen may cause problems with under- or oversupply in the long run.[/align] [/align]I'm currently playtesting how all this turns out, but like Andrew spare time for me is in short supply as well... 

[Buck Beach]

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget

Nice to see that others think along the same lines. [/align] [/align]In my personal mod the US has to import ressources from the rest of the world in order to run its industry at full capacity.[/align] [/align]The Allies have to repair between 50% and 66% of the industry and ressources in US, Australia / NZ and India, in order to model early "shoestring" conditions and rising production over time.[/align] [/align]I have reduced "free supplies" at USA bases to a level that repairs will consume most of them, while the bases on other continents will need to draw the supplies from industry production and/ imports.[/align] [/align]Furthermore, I have added ressources at the Canal Zone and Capetown, plus some oil at the Canal Zone (Venezuela), plus light industry in England and Eastern US (lots).[/align] [/align]This will keep much of the merchant fleet well occupied (I also use the "stockpile" option to 'force' the use of coastal shipping from ressource centers to industry centers in Australia and NZ). [/align] [/align]I must admit that my approach is not overly scientific but seat-of-the-pants and that the values I have chosen may cause problems with under- or oversupply in the long run.[/align] [/align]I'm currently playtesting how all this turns out, but like Andrew spare time for me is in short supply as well... 

What is the "stockpile option"?

Buck

[LargeSlowTarget]

Has been added with Beta-Patch 1108k8 - http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2729580[/align] [/align]You can now set supplies, fuel, oil and ressources to stockpile at the base, which prevents them from being dragged away by the auto-supply system. Great function for building-up offensive supply stockpiles at "non-single-hex-island bases".

Kudos to michaelm for this great feature![/align]

Btw Buck, you will get mail from me soon, just have to make a few more changes...

[Buck Beach]

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget

Has been added with Beta-Patch 1108k8 - http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2729580[/align] [/align]You can now set supplies, fuel, oil and ressources to stockpile at the base, which prevents them from being dragged away by the auto-supply system. Great function for building-up offensive supply stockpiles at "non-single-hex-island bases".

Kudos to michaelm for this great feature![/align]

Btw Buck, you will get mail from me soon, just have to make a few more changes...

Thanks LST, looking forward to getting your email.

Buck

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget

Nice to see that others think along the same lines. [/align] [/align]In my personal mod the US has to import ressources from the rest of the world in order to run its industry at full capacity.[/align] [/align]The Allies have to repair between 50% and 66% of the industry and ressources in US, Australia / NZ and India, in order to model early "shoestring" conditions and rising production over time.[/align] [/align]I have reduced "free supplies" at USA bases to a level that repairs will consume most of them, while the bases on other continents will need to draw the supplies from industry production and/ imports.[/align] [/align]Furthermore, I have added ressources at the Canal Zone and Capetown, plus some oil at the Canal Zone (Venezuela), plus light industry in England and Eastern US (lots).[/align] [/align]This will keep much of the merchant fleet well occupied (I also use the "stockpile" option to 'force' the use of coastal shipping from ressource centers to industry centers in Australia and NZ). [/align] [/align]I must admit that my approach is not overly scientific but seat-of-the-pants and that the values I have chosen may cause problems with under- or oversupply in the long run.[/align] [/align]I'm currently playtesting how all this turns out, but like Andrew spare time for me is in short supply as well... 

I don't see the justification for requiring the US to import resources, though.

[LargeSlowTarget]

The USA had to import strategic ressources:





Edit: Oops, did not pay attention to the mouse cursor - it should read "...jumped to five dozen."

Edit2: Source: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Oktober 1961 - yes, maybe somewhat obscure source but the best I could come up on a hurry and at work - but good enough for a summary.