Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Miller]

Hi Dan. In our game the only reason I was able to retake the Kuriles when you invaded was thanks to all those home defence units that appeared from thin air. But as has been already mentioned, that area is the least of his problems right now.

Since you have already destroyed the mini-KB, I think it may be possible to end the game if you can engineer a KB vs all your CVs clash (out of the range of his LBA of course). He is stuck with 18 plane Zero sqds on his CVs until June. So thats 6 x 18 = 108......and he has to escort his strikes so a good number of your strike planes would get through a 50% CAP.........something to bear in mind.

I dont think Chez is a bad player......however maybe he has not had the time in real life to give this game his full attention and it has cost him. He has missed things and now is paying the price. He might have gotten away with it against a Noob, but not an opponent of your calibre.

[Nemo121]

If you get inside someone's OODA cycle the fact that they then begin making inappropriate decisions doesn't show them as a "bad " player. It is just a sign that you've broken their OODA cycle.

With that said he was indecisive and let his forces fall into disorder from order and counter-order.

[desicat]

CR maybe the sporting thing to do would be for you to send him an email asking if your invasion auto triggered the HI units?

Maybe he missed them or maybe he has never encountered an auto trigger of forces....?

If he knows of the units and chooses not to use them or can't is a different scenario than not even being aware of their existence.

[Miller]

ORIGINAL: desicat

CR maybe the sporting thing to do would be for you to send him an email asking if your invasion auto triggered the HI units?

Maybe he missed them or maybe he has never encountered an auto trigger of forces....?

If he knows of the units and chooses not to use them or can't is a different scenario than not even being aware of their existence.

IIRC, at the end of the replay on the day of the invasion he would have seen multiple xxx Garrison Unit arrives at xxx messages, hard to miss those I would have thought.

[Canoerebel]

4/1/42

Sabang: The American expeditionary force takes this base easily (Steve was using air transport to bring in reinforcements including part of 52nd Division). The Dutch take the vacant base to the east. But Japan shock attacks to take the base at the far east of the line (garrisoned by a hodge-podge of Indian and Sumatran troops that I thought could hold). The American tanks and one infantry regiment will roll east and badger the retreating Japanese in a visible way. But all four American units have switched prep to Denpasar. I'm not planning on them remaining at Sabang long. Bettys and Nells sortied against the Allied shipping at Sabang effectively, sinking two xAP and five xAK, with one more xAP likely to go under. All shipping will pull back until I can get some CAP in place. Extracting the troops may be a challenge.

Singapore: The Allies hold against a 2:1 attack that drops forts from 2 to 1. The forts saved the Allies, and the brief window in which the Allies landed 30k supplies a few weeks ago has repeatedly saved the Allies. Singers AV is down to 260, or 26% of what is was when this assault began. Japan should take the base next attack, though there's a small chance the IJ force took enough damage to need rest for one day...and in one day forts will go back to level 2.

Sumatra: Steve is chomping at the bit to get at Sumatra - especially to restore order in western Sumatra - as soon as Singers falls. Things are going to get busy around these parts.

China: The Chinese will take a crack at Kienko tomorrow. IJ stack at Changsha still in place.

NoPac: Bettys at long distance managed to lightly damage two xAK at Onne. Most Allied shipping departs both bases tonight, though I'm having trouble getting an xAP/xAK force that was reloading a part of 41st Div. to obey orders. It was unloading, I ordered it to reload, and it doesn't seem to like the change. This is a snafu that could cost the Allies some ships. Otherwise, things look good up here at the moment. Miller is right in his post up above. The triggering of Japanese reinforcements unleashes a long, obvious string of announcement in the combat replay. Steve had to notice that (and surely any player of his experience level knows such an invasion triggers these forces), so I'm not going to say anything yet. I think he's running a ruse to try to lure me into complacence.

Brief Hiatus: Canoerebel HQ will be off today and tomorrow as the family takes a brief backpacking trip in the mountains to tell stories around a campfire and visit our favorite swimming hole for the first time this summer (take that, Yankees!). Resume normal schedule Tuesday.

[Canoerebel]

4/2/42

Singapore: Japan takes this critical base on a 2:1 attack.

Points: For the first time, Japan takes the lead, going from a virtual dead heat to a lead of 2k or 3k due to Singapore's value and the loss of Allied troops.

Sabang: Japananese air hit two more xAP and six or seven more xAK - I had given orders for the ships to retire, but I possibly forgot to click "cancel unloading" in my haste to finish the turn. The American tanks are rolling forward and should batter the retreating enemy stack the day after tomorrow.

Sumatra: With the fall of Singapore, I think Steve's first order of business will be to reclaim western Sumatra. The Allies will see what they can do to frustrate Japan as long as possible. There may occur opportunities to strike.

China: Two of the four Chinese units arrived at Kienko, but couldn't dislodge the hodgepodge of defenders. Two more units arrived today, so all four Chinese will give it a try tomorrow. If things don't look promising, they'll retire towards Henyang.

NoPac: Quiet up here. All Allied TFs have retired except two small supply and three DDs. Then stage two begins - see if Japan counterattacks quickly. If not, the Allies will reinforce with engineers and some support units. (If Japan elects to focus on the DEI, the Allies will strive to take advantage in the Kuriiles).

[Cribtop]

It occurs to me that the Sabang Op may encourage him to try the "long approach" to Palembang via Western Sumatra. What are your plans if that is the case? He has a long way to go but won't unload in the teeth of your CD guns.

[Canoerebel]

Here are Steve's Sumatra invasion options from most direct to most indirect.  This is so complicated it is a game entirely within itself:
 
Palembang:  An invasion of Palembang offers Steve's the safest seaborne approach because there is little likelihood of interception by Allied combat ships.  The approaches will be dominated by IJ LBA and ships.  But landing here means bottling up the IJA invasion force on the beach with the Allies able to freely bring in reinforcements.  Also, Steve will believe this hex is the most strongly guarded.  I rate the odds of an amphibious assault here very unlikely and very favorable to the Allies.
 
Oosthaven:  This may be the most attractive beach to the enemy - close proximity to Palembang means a straightforward land campaign once the invaison troops are ashore.  Also, Oosthaven is on the border of IJ controlled waters and will be close to IJ airfields once Japan takes Java.  Oosthaven, however, is the most heavily protected by Allied CD guns and is at least somewhat vulnerable to interdiction by Allied combat ships.  I rate the likelihood of invasion here as high.  The Allies have 1300 AV now, which will be augumented.  If Japan lands here, the Allies can easily reinforce Palembang from other bases.
 
Benkolen:  This is the least-heavily protected Allied base that offers quick access to Palembang; least-heavily protected because it offers Allied combat ships the best chance at intercepting an invasion force.  Landing here allows the Allies to quickly reinforce Palembang from the Oosthaven garrison.  I rate the likelihood of invasion here somewhat lower than Oosthaven, but higher than the next base.
 
Padang:  Lightly protected, but offere the Allies a better chance at attacking the invasion force.  An invasion here in strength means a long IJ campaign across yellow roads, which should mean supply problems.  I rate the chances of an invasion here as fairly low.
 
North Coast:  Japan can land here uncontested, but then faces an even longer campaign across Sumatra's yellow road system.  This would be a most inefficient way for Japan to attack - long, slow, risking taking many months...but it would eliminate the possibility of a sea battle.  I rate the chances of such an attack as fairly high.
 
What I think will happen:  Steve will mount a small "feeler" campaign from Sumatra's north coast; try to gain control of the air; take Java, and then invade either Oosthaven or Benkolen.  The Allies will seek opportunities to strike around Sumatra, and will engage in new offensives in distant locales to try keep Japan off balance.
 
 
 

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Smeulders

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Nemo, yes, we have to pay PP to move across national boundaries. Darn, or I'd have the entire 2,500 AV currently in India in Burma.

I'd have been interested to see this. Are there any AARs where someone has done an early Burma invasion while working with the supply movement restrictions ? 2500 AV might be very hard to keep supplied through the jungle now.

Not to difficult as long as it is not the moonsoon and you have built up all Indian foward airbases, including Akyab and that other base just over the border. If you are moving into Burma with these bases at only level 2 or 3 then you might be eating your own shoe leather.

[Nemo121]

Here are Steve's Sumatra invasion options from most direct to most indirect. This is so complicated it is a game entirely within itself:

I don't disagree with your points following this statement. I'd alter them a bit as I think there are a few wrinkles he could throw in to really mess you around --- but I doubt he'll do so --- but, generally they are sound. I would aver a thought for you though...

You spoke of his invasion options instead of his neutralisation options. Alfred has posted to his thread within the last dozen posts or so ( this is from memory but I don't see much activity there and Alfred's post occured within a timeframe within which not much change has occured so the point is valid even if the post count is a little off ) and I have a few thoughts about what Alfred might have posted and how you might have to consider it.

1. Alfred wouldn't have posted a question. Not his style and not necessary. Alfred would fairly well know the answer to any relevant question he would want to ask re: your opponent's thinking around Sumatra or strategically in general. Thus Alfred probably posted commentary regarding the strategic situation.

2. Alfred doesn't go in for opaque, obfuscatory yet, ultimately revealing sequiturs. His motivations are different than mine and so his post content and style also differs. Instead he posits a situation and describes the context, ramifications of it and the logical outcomes and influences of those factors on the strategic situation. In short he clarifies, points out errors in thought and suggests solutions instead of hinting at the problem and inviting the reader to do most of the work...

3. Alfred will NOT have made the mistake of viewing Sumatra within the prescribed confines of invasion and will, instead, be open to all options one's assumptions usually proscribe.

4. IF your opponent listens to Alfred you will need to plan for a neutralisation strategy which will be very different than anything you've outlined above. Perhaps you've considered it. I haven't seen clear evidence of that though.


With the above said I believe we'd have seen evidence in the recent past if your opponent were acting on Alfred's advice.... He doesn't appear to be so you probably won't be facing a neutralisation/bypass strategy but it would be worth spending 5 minutes thinking about how you would handle it if you did face it... even if purely as an exercise in planning. Of course, that's just my opinion, you may, of course, find it unnecessary in this game. For your next tranche of games though you may find yourself facing people who would be alive to the reality that encirclement is a matter of opinion --- one of my favourite military axioms of all time.

[Canoerebel]

Nemo, I based my comments upon my evaluation that Steve will come for Sumatra. That's based upon what I've seen to date and what I think is his most likely course of action.

I am aware that others were contributing to his AAR at the start of the game - Chickenboy told me that he was, and I saw Alfred's name on more than one occasion. But from what I've seen, Steve doesn't seem to be following the advice of players of their caliber, at least up to now. He also isn't posting much these days, which would seem to make the exchange of ideas sporadic unless he's exchanging PMs.

I could be mistaken in my evaluation, so I have given thought to what I would do if Steve were to neutralize and largely bypass Sumatra. First, as we noted previously we are working with a house rule that prohibits strategic bombing in the DEI and China until 1944. So Steve can't bomb the oil refinery to stop the production of supplies. He can try to do so by using cruisers, the biggest ships that can reach Palembang, but I don't think that would work.

Since Sumatra can produce supplies, he's not going to eradicate the Allied army there for many months. He could could instead neutralize the Allied position in eastern Sumatra for now, saving it for later, by isolating it. He can do this by taking the nothern and western bases and the bases in Java over the coming weeks. Doing so and winning the air campaign over eastern Sumatra will prevent Allies ships from coming or going, thus effectively isolating the garrison.

What to do then? It doesn't benefit Steve to just sit on Sumatra for months until the Allies grow strong enough to come to the relief of the isolated garrison. He needs to move in a big way to take advantage of the remaining period of Japanese initiative that he still has. Using his troops to move on China would be the most logical choice. A move on India would be his second best choice, but I think that is very unlikely since (1) he won't know how much the Allies have there, and (2) the Allies can probably fight effectively for India since they have American troops coming and and since the carrier disparity has been reduced with the loss of three IJN CVL and one CVE (though it might only be heavily damaged rather than sunk).

Thus, in my opinion Steve's best course of action is to work on isolating Sumatra while ramping up his India campaign.

Edited to change "oil" to "supplies."

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here are Steve's Sumatra invasion options from most direct to most indirect.  This is so complicated it is a game entirely within itself:

Palembang:  An invasion of Palembang offers Steve's the safest seaborne approach because there is little likelihood of interception by Allied combat ships.  The approaches will be dominated by IJ LBA and ships.  But landing here means bottling up the IJA invasion force on the beach with the Allies able to freely bring in reinforcements.  Also, Steve will believe this hex is the most strongly guarded.  I rate the odds of an amphibious assault here very unlikely and very favorable to the Allies.

Oosthaven:  This may be the most attractive beach to the enemy - close proximity to Palembang means a straightforward land campaign once the invaison troops are ashore.  Also, Oosthaven is on the border of IJ controlled waters and will be close to IJ airfields once Japan takes Java.  Oosthaven, however, is the most heavily protected by Allied CD guns and is at least somewhat vulnerable to interdiction by Allied combat ships.  I rate the likelihood of invasion here as high.  The Allies have 1300 AV now, which will be augumented.  If Japan lands here, the Allies can easily reinforce Palembang from other bases.

Benkolen:  This is the least-heavily protected Allied base that offers quick access to Palembang; least-heavily protected because it offers Allied combat ships the best chance at intercepting an invasion force.  Landing here allows the Allies to quickly reinforce Palembang from the Oosthaven garrison.  I rate the likelihood of invasion here somewhat lower than Oosthaven, but higher than the next base.

Padang:  Lightly protected, but offere the Allies a better chance at attacking the invasion force.  An invasion here in strength means a long IJ campaign across yellow roads, which should mean supply problems.  I rate the chances of an invasion here as fairly low.

North Coast:  Japan can land here uncontested, but then faces an even longer campaign across Sumatra's yellow road system.  This would be a most inefficient way for Japan to attack - long, slow, risking taking many months...but it would eliminate the possibility of a sea battle.  I rate the chances of such an attack as fairly high.

What I think will happen:  Steve will mount a small "feeler" campaign from Sumatra's north coast; try to gain control of the air; take Java, and then invade either Oosthaven or Benkolen.  The Allies will seek opportunities to strike around Sumatra, and will engage in new offensives in distant locales to try keep Japan off balance.

Ah, whilst I was busy answering a query in another thread and then having to deal with my internet connection again falling out, I see Nemo has posted. Therefore I will make only two short points regarding the above analysis from Canoerebel.

1. The Battle for Palembang should be a much bigger affair than the above analysis suggests it will be.

2. Unlike classic WITP, AE has a much lower "tax" levied on the movement of supplies than Canoerebel has consistently factored into his despatches. This lower "tax" has a major impact on combat operations.

Alfred

[Canoerebel]

Nemo, you asked what I would do if Steve isolates or neutralizes Sumatra. If the Allies are in a position of being unable to continue sending in reinforcements, I will have to decide whether to keep my combat ships and carriers in theater, posing a threat, or whether to utilize them elsewhere. This evaluation will be fluid.

Allied strategy in NoPac is also fluid as the Allies wait to see whether Japan commits a large force there. If Japan doesn't, the Allies will build those garrisons.

In either event, the next Allied target is likely to be one of two locales: (1) Malaya, or (2) the Gilbert Islands. The choice will depend partly on where Steve concentrates his forces, especially the KB. If Japanese carriers are posted in the DEI, the Allies will hit the Gilberts, and vice versa if the carriers are in the Pacific. I only have enough PP to engage in one of these operations, so I want to be sure before I expend the PP.

[SuluSea]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Here are Steve's Sumatra invasion options from most direct to most indirect. This is so complicated it is a game entirely within itself:

I don't disagree with your points following this statement. I'd alter them a bit as I think there are a few wrinkles he could throw in to really mess you around --- but I doubt he'll do so --- but, generally they are sound. I would aver a thought for you though...

You spoke of his invasion options instead of his neutralisation options. Alfred has posted to his thread within the last dozen posts or so ( this is from memory but I don't see much activity there and Alfred's post occured within a timeframe within which not much change has occured so the point is valid even if the post count is a little off ) and I have a few thoughts about what Alfred might have posted and how you might have to consider it.

1. Alfred wouldn't have posted a question. Not his style and not necessary. Alfred would fairly well know the answer to any relevant question he would want to ask re: your opponent's thinking around Sumatra or strategically in general. Thus Alfred probably posted commentary regarding the strategic situation.

2. Alfred doesn't go in for opaque, obfuscatory yet, ultimately revealing sequiturs. His motivations are different than mine and so his post content and style also differs. Instead he posits a situation and describes the context, ramifications of it and the logical outcomes and influences of those factors on the strategic situation. In short he clarifies, points out errors in thought and suggests solutions instead of hinting at the problem and inviting the reader to do most of the work...

3. Alfred will NOT have made the mistake of viewing Sumatra within the prescribed confines of invasion and will, instead, be open to all options one's assumptions usually proscribe.

4. IF your opponent listens to Alfred you will need to plan for a neutralisation strategy which will be very different than anything you've outlined above. Perhaps you've considered it. I haven't seen clear evidence of that though.


With the above said I believe we'd have seen evidence in the recent past if your opponent were acting on Alfred's advice.... He doesn't appear to be so you probably won't be facing a neutralisation/bypass strategy but it would be worth spending 5 minutes thinking about how you would handle it if you did face it... even if purely as an exercise in planning. Of course, that's just my opinion, you may, of course, find it unnecessary in this game. For your next tranche of games though you may find yourself facing people who would be alive to the reality that encirclement is a matter of opinion --- one of my favourite military axioms of all time.

It's poor form to talk about what another member may or may not be saying in an opposing AAR.

[Alfred]

Just for the record, I don't believe it is correct for third parties to provide unsolicited advice in a PM as to how to proceed to parties involved in an ongoing AAR. Third party advice should be provided publicly in the AAR.

I very much doubt that ChezDaJez has solicited any advise/assistance in private from anyone. He certainly hasn't of me and I have not PM'd him.

Alfred

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
opaque, obfuscatory yet, ultimately revealing sequiturs.

That is the funniest damn thing I've seen you post! [:D]

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

It's poor form to talk about what another member may or may not be saying in an opposing AAR.

To be fair, he did not make any reference to reading it and implied he did not read it. He analyzed what he figured the member was saying based on his general knowledge of the members' other posts. That might or might not be your cup of tea, but's not an opsec breach. [8D]

[Nemo121]

Ah, the moral scion of the forum strikes again.

I haven't read Chez Da Jez's thread and I haven't read Alfred's posts. I saw he had posted in Chez's thread ( as the forum displays that information to all members of the forum who visit the AAR forum ).

There's nothing wrong with speculating about what someone may have said in a thread you haven't read. After all, if Alfred is giving Chez advice that may sway his thinking and THAT is very much relevant to Canoerebel.

I suggest you reconsider your knee-jerk reaction and actually think about what happened. I speculated about what someone who often gives strategic advice advised. There's nothing wrong in that and I'd thank you to think before posting yourself.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: SuluSea
It's poor form to talk about what another member may or may not be saying in an opposing AAR.

SuluSea, I don't think Nemo is reading my opponent's AAR, so I believe what he just said is based upon his interpretation of what Alfred would be inclined to say in posts. Nemo isn't the kind to violate OpSec. But...dang...the vocabulary and thought processes contained in the typical Nemo and Alfred posts require deep thinking that can be very taxing to the average southerner!

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

1. The Battle for Palembang should be a much bigger affair than the above analysis suggests it will be.

2. Unlike classic WITP, AE has a much lower "tax" levied on the movement of supplies than Canoerebel has consistently factored into his despatches. This lower "tax" has a major impact on combat operations.

Alfred

Additional info - In my current game with Treespider, I saw a big difference in effectiveness of aerial bombing against my forces in Palembang versus Clark Field. Palembang is nice x3 defense terrain, but I gained the impression that the swamp terrain at Palembang provides less protection against aerial bombing than the jungle+rough at Clark (and presumably the same would apply versus forest+rough and mountain). I found my troops taking AV hits from bombing that I did not anticipate.