Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Nemo121]

Alfred,

I am only referring to having noticed you as a "last poster" to Chez's thread.... and since you posted at a time when the Sumatra question was the main question I'm assuming you posted something to do with that --- and I'm sure you advocated an indirect approach, turning strength into weakness... A huge number of troops is a powerful defensive position BUT also a position which will starve quickly. I'm sure that would have played part in your thinking and advice, just as it would in mine if I were to post in Chez's thread.


Just to be clear though:
I amn't reading Chez's thread. I do, however, think Alfred would give the same advice I would give to Chez. Since I know what I would say I am comfortable speculating about what Alfred would say. Sure there would be some differences but, overall, I'm sure Alfred would give much the same advice I would. In this situation I would advise to isolate Sumatra and turn it into an Allied cesspool whilst exploiting deeply into positions uncovered by the focus on Sumatra.... I think that's what ALfred would have advised. I also think Chez won't take that advice.

I think it is LUDICROUS to suggest that we cannot comment about what advice someone would be getting from posters who post to their AAR. If PzB, myself Alfred, Canoerebel, jrcar, tony, Pauk and a few others were advising a player I think it would be HIGHLY relevant for his opponent to begin speculating ( with readers of his AAR ) just what we might be advising/suggesting.

Then again, ludicrousness is common and common sense is rare.

[Nemo121]

Fortifications provide greater protection to aerial bombing than terrain IME. Might there have been significantly different fortification levels in the two hexes?

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Just for the record, I don't believe it is correct for third parties to provide unsolicited advice in a PM as to how to proceed to parties involved in an ongoing AAR. Third party advice should be provided publicly in the AAR.

I very much doubt that ChezDaJez has solicited any advise/assistance in private from anyone. He certainly hasn't of me and I have not PM'd him.
Alfred

*ack* I wasn't implying that anybody was doing anything wrong. For what it's worth, I certainly wouldn't have thought PMing was wrong, though now I see that it might lend itself to questions about whether there might be OpSec violations. Yet everybody mentioned in everyone of these past ten or fifteen posts are players of the highest caliber with unquestioned integrity. A pox upon digital communication that lends itself to creating these little dramas when none was intended or necessary.

[Canoerebel]

Here's a recapitulation on my present evaluation of my opponent and his likely course of action:

1. He isn't likely to bypass Sumatra.
2. I don't think he is likely to accept advice to do something radically different.
3. I think an invasion of Sumatra will follow upon the conquest of Java.
4. If he surprises me by isolating Sumatra, I think the only likely and worthwhile targets are China and India. He's likely to assume that Oz and Hawaii would be too strongly defended at this late date, and New Zealand is strategically small potatoes under the circumstances.

[Nemo121]

Aye, I've commented on games via PM... when approached by the authors and requested to do so by them.

I would, generally, say less and be less specific/clear/helpful in PM than in public because of the possible OPSEC issues - it might only be an optics/appearance issue but it is still there - than I would be in a public AAR. However I think that someone with integrity will self-monitor whether in public or private.

Integrity is what we do when no-one's looking or will ever find out. That's certainly the code I live by. I do agree it could be an optics/appearance issue though.

[paullus99]

That's a good question - if you have a month before he hits the beach (perhaps), what do you think your fortification levels will look like?

I'm very curious to see which way he's going to jump here - it should give you a lot of insight into his decision-making process (whether he's settling down or getting riled up again).

[Canoerebel]

Palembang forts are currently at about 4.6 and should reach 5 unless things really go badly. Forts have been building slowly, but an American EAB just arrived, which should speed things up a bit.

Oosthaven and Benkolen are both around 3.5 or so and should reach level 4 since engineer reinforcements just arrived there, too.

Note that the Japanese invasion bonus just expired. So it will take the Japanese longer to unload ships, which increases the possiblity that an Allied surface combat TF intercept would have a real chance of affecting enemy AV if they can make it through defenses far enough to tangle with transports.

Later today I'll post a more thorough report about Sumatra's defenses including CD units, fighters, bombers, fort levels, etc. Sumatra is strong, but the risks are very, very high. For the Allies to lose a 4000 AV army would be incredibly painful. So the Allies have to fight well - not only in Sumatra, but in other locations where the enemy might be absent due to the need to focus on Sumatra (and NoPac and wherever else Steve elects to attack).

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Integrity is what we do when no-one's looking or will ever find out.

+1

Fortifications provide greater protection to aerial bombing than terrain IME. Might there have been significantly different fortification levels in the two hexes?

Unfortunately, no. Palembang didn't get past 1 before base bombing to suppress construction began. Clark also had 1, but only until the first attack. That was a disaster, so there was a long period where Clark had 0 and Palembang had 1. Still, Palembang had worse casualties from air attacks. Never ran low on supplies either. I didn't check just before it fell, but it was 58,000+ a week or two before the end. AV maxed at about 800, but when the serious bombing commenced that fairly quickly dropped to 700 and even less as time went on. Due to a squad upgrade mistake on my part, AV dropped about 150 or more in one shot (to perhaps 450ish at the time) making it difficult to keep track of the real losses to air (I wasn't bothering to keep a detailed tally).

[SuluSea]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Ah, the moral scion of the forum strikes again.

I haven't read Chez Da Jez's thread and I haven't read Alfred's posts. I saw he had posted in Chez's thread ( as the forum displays that information to all members of the forum who visit the AAR forum ).

There's nothing wrong with speculating about what someone may have said in a thread you haven't read. After all, if Alfred is giving Chez advice that may sway his thinking and THAT is very much relevant to Canoerebel.

I suggest you reconsider your knee-jerk reaction and actually think about what happened. I speculated about what someone who often gives strategic advice advised. There's nothing wrong in that and I'd thank you to think before posting yourself.

Those 62 minutes that Alfred had the last post in Chez's AAR, what if Canoe didn't see it? I believe it was a poor choice on your behalf to inform who is posting in the AAR and you further compounded it by speculating on what the advice may be.

[Canoerebel]

Chez hasn't posted in his AAR in two weeks. I keep as careful track as possible, though I'm not omnipresent on the forums. And we've discussed in here previously my thoughts regarding both Chickenboy and Alfred posting there, so this was nothing new.

[Canoerebel]

One more important note about my evaluation of Steve's intentions. One reason I think that only China and India are viable major targets at this late date is because a large-scale enemy invasion of Australia, New Zealand or Hawaii would take Steve's forces, necessarily including the KB, away from Sumatra, thus permitting the Allies to continue reinforcing, at least until he imposes a blockade, which will take him another month or two, and to even invade some tender area like Malaya. I don't think he can afford to look east now - he's got to attend to Sumatra in some form or fashion, and IMO only action aimed at China, Sumatra, and/or India focuses his strength where he needs it and where he has a shot at halting the Allies.

[Canoerebel]

Map of AV and fort level in eastern Sumatra as of 4/2/42. Note: This is the map of the 3/15/42 turn that I used in a post on that date, with the only changes being AV, fort levels, and a few other details. That's why this map shows Singapore still in Allied hands.

Distribution of Allied troops in Sumatra is designed to provide cover against enemy paratroop attacks and to centrally position some units that can rapidly report to an invasion target. Also, the Allies have 172 AV at Sabang. My plan is to withdraw that garrison, but if enemy air activity prevents me from doing so, those units would try to make to eastern Sumatra.

If the enemy comes at Sumatra quickly and without taking and building up forward airfields on Java, the Allies can effectively oppose the landings with air and seapower. This would favor the Allies, so I doubt Steve does it.

If the enemy is more methodical, taking and building up forward airfields in western Sumatra and western Java, and then positioning the KB and combat ships to support an invasion, the task becomes much more difficult for the Allies. But it should take Steve at least a month to two months to achieve such a position. And that would give the Allies time to reinforce and look for opportunities to strike and sting.

As stated previously, I think Steve will focus on Sumatra soon rather than bypassing and isolating it, but we'll see.

[ny59giants]

Do you have any forces on Christmas Island (IO) and Cocos Island?? They would at least provide intel of any potential moves from that direction with a few PBY squadrons there.

[Nemo121]

SS, You are welcome to your opinion - which is just that, an opinion. You think I shouldn't have mentioned who posted there - despite it being publicly available informaiton - I think it was justified. We can agree to differ. Simple.

[desicat]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thus, in my opinion Steve's best course of action is to work on isolating Sumatra while ramping up his India campaign.

Edited to change "oil" to "supplies."

Based upon current Japanese force allocations it would be highly improbable at this point for Chez to kickoff an invasion of India. I would expect that if his initial plan for auto-victory was to take India you would have seen a greater emphasis on taking Singapore and a pushing through of Sumatra along with an early strike at Port Blair. Japan is way behind in the DEI, has to deal with a Kurile incursion, has issues in China, has lost the mini-KB, and has to do something about fortress Palembang - India is now beyond his grasp.

A quick comparison to your game with Q-Ball and his invasion timeline reveals the futility of an attempted Indian strategy on the the fly by Chez. The timeline is now totally wrong and India will be too strong and reinforceable. Any attempt to isolate or bypass Sumatra would be catastrophic for Japan at this point as it would provide a kickoff point pointed directly at the heart of the empire. Any troops attempting to bypass would be cut off, difficult to supply, are desperately needed elsewhere, and would always have to keep an eye toward their SLOC's. Palembang supply as you noted can't be easily disrupted, and any attempt he makes will have to include such a significant allocation of assets that he may as well invade.

Chez will come for Sumatra and he will bring the KB in hopes of winning a carrier battle. The invasion will be slow and will proceed along the lines you anticipate.

What should you do at this point? Can you hold Sumatra? If not does it make sense to have your carries in theater? They could cause him damage but what could they do elsewhere while the KB is engaged in the DEI? Why risk him getting in a lucky strike against your CV's?

[DTurtle]

Have you reinforced/fortified any other parts of the DEI? Or is everything going to Sumatra? If - as you think - an approach via Java -> Oosthaven is highly likely, an additional stronghold or stumbling stone could prove useful. There is also additional oil in Java that could be trashed by defending it a bit stronger.

Of course, it could critically weaken your Sumatra stronghold, but it might buy time that makes it worth it.

Have you also thought about staging smaller raiders in those areas? Even if caught, they could force him to escort a lot more in his own backyard. It might be an additional way to punish him for ignoring so much of the DEI for such a long time.

[Canoerebel]

Lots of good analysis, suggestons, and thoughts. 
 
Desicat:  You state your case well.  I agree that an invasion of India is unlikely at this late point, but it's the only major operation (other than China) that doesn't allow the Allies to continue building Sumatra.  My money is on Steve coming after Sumatra and also perhaps beefing up his China army.
 
NYGiants:  The Allies have 70 AV at Cocos Island with a PBY squadron operating.  I haven't done anything with Christmas Island (IO), but I'll take a look at it.  I have lots of picket ships strung south from Java and operating from Cocos Island to guard against unpleasant surprises.
 
DTurtle:  The Allies have fought a long delaying battle in the DEI, helped by Japan's rather tepid activity for too many months.  In addition to a variety of naval and air engagements that bled and slowed Japan, the Allies did not withdraw the Singapore garrison, which stymied Japan until two days ago.  Now the Allies ae down to Sumatra, Java, a few Borneo bases and Mindanao.  None but Sumatra is strong, but the Allies are considering an invasion of Denpasar (east of Soerabaja) if Steve sends the KB to the Kuriles or some other distant outpost.

[Canoerebel]

4/4/42
 
Sumatra:  The western Allied troops attacked and defeated the disorganized IJ force retreating from Sabang.  The Allies want to keep up the appearance of conquest and carnage here to force Japan to allocate resources intended for other places.  Japanese bombers from Malaya were able to overcome Benkolen's fighters to damage or sank two or three small transports carrying supply. 

Java:  BBs Kongo, Haruna and Ise in the Java Sea, as Steve leads with his nose once again.  This TF may be bound for Batavia to bombard.  I want to strike, though I'm leary of being lured into a KB-enforced trap.  I have a one-BB TF at Oosthaven, plus PT TFs.  I may try for an intercept, hoping that damaged IJN ships would then be subject to effective air strikes.  Mulling over this possibility.  No present sign of enemy invasion force approaching vulnerable Java.  Indomitable, Yorktown, and Enterprise are south of Sumatra, heading east slowly in case there is an opportunity to pounce (or to offload strike aircraft so that they can try to pounce).

Capetown:  27th USA Division has arrived.  Do I sped the PP to buy this, or is buying American units on the West Coast to invade the Gilberts a higher priority?  Tough call here.  I'm leaning towads buying 27th Division since it could be a major player in a theater where the war could be won in coming weeks and months. 

China:  Four Chinese corps at Kienko attacked at 1:1 odds, reducing forts to nil.  The Chinese might take this base tomorrow.  My main goal, though, is to simply rough up IJA units wherever I can.  The Chinese army in the forests east of Sian are on the move.  I've finally decided to probe what seem to be weak Japanese garrisons from Ichang to Loyang.

NoPac:  44 Nells and 39 Bettys sortied without scoring a hit - bombing from very long range isn't working well for Japan.  Maybe as soon as tomorrow Steve will have a decent base force and some bombers at Shimishura Jima, a level two airfield that will change things a bit.  However, only a few Allied ships remain at Para, though one TF is trying to unload an American coastal artillery unit as quickly as possible.  Warspite and Idaho bombarded Amchitka, solely to give the impression of Allied aggression in as many locales as possible.

Pacific:  Quiet here.  Steve has shown the most interest in this region throughout the game.  He's been steadily reconning or bombing both Pago Pago and Savaii.  We'll see if he decides to continue with offensive operations in this theater, or if the emergencies elsewhere dampen his enthusiasm.

[John 3rd]

I concur with your thinking Dan. It is far too late for any big offensives by the Japanese player. he might have units prepping for distant targets but to land now, with no bonus, will be difficult. Has your Intel shown anything in this arena?

It boggles my mind that he has allowed this to develop. Your position is incredible considering this is Scen 2 and he is an experienced player...

[Canoerebel]

This is a weird game no doubt.  The fact that Steve is experienced adds to the weirdness.  I look forward to eventually hearing his explanation of what the heck has happened from his perspective.
 
I think Steve has figured out that I was getting too much intel.  The "prepping for" and "maru bound for" stuff has slowed considerably.  That which I do get is mostly uselss, like "xx unit is at Singapore" or "xx unit is prepping for Changsha."  Those are pretty obvious.
 
My guess as to Steve's strategy?  I say he'll focus on Sumatra and the Kuriles, nibble a bit on the peripheries at fairly lightly defended bases, work in China, and eventually transition over to the defensive.  I don't believe there will be any big and bold moves on major Allied land masses, though I'll continue sniffing for any indications to the contrary.