Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[crsutton]

I am surprised that he is not reconning Colombo on a daily basis with LR bombers or patrol aircraft. He is in range, is he not? Perhaps he has not moved far enough into Burma. Japanese players should never leave Colombo unwatched. Even if it is just a Glen equipped sub. As the Allied player, I would never upgrade or repair capital ships there if I was aware the port was being watched. So just by reconning the base forces the Allied player to use Cape Town-which robs ships of another month in transit time.


With the Japanese every little failure of a quick advance adds up. He should own Port Blair and most of Burma by now. And, then be watching Colombo. If he is not in a position to do so then the use of Colombo adds to the growing list of Allied advantages. And although the Japanese look solid on paper, this accumulation of advantages should lead to disaster for Japan early in the war.

I don't play the Japanese but as an Allied player know what the Japanese need to accomplish fairly well. Playing scen #2 the Japanese player by October 42 should hold all of Burma including Akyab, the DEI, North Oz up to Daily Waters including Port Headland, most of the Aleutians, a good Pacific perimeter, and the Solomons chain at least as far as Ndeni. This is without a major defeat of the Allied carrier fleet. If you have early sucess vs the Allied carriers (shame!), then Noumea and Suva should be in the bag too. This is a must if you want to hold off a serious Allied thrust in 43.

[Canoerebel]

Nemo, I'm not assuming anything here, though I could be (am) miscontruing or misunderstanding.  If I am the black, then Steve might have offered Sumatra (unlikely) or the Kuriles (definately possible, but considered and accepted before I proceeded).
 
Readers of this AAR are at a disadvantage in evaluating what's going on, because you are largely limited to the things I point out.  Of course, there are myriad little things that go into evaluating the opposing player and his intentions and abilities, many of which aren't worth posting (my posts are long enough) or which I forget to mention or which I intentionally don't mention.  Steve is doing a number of things that has me scratching my head - letter I's he isn't dotting and letter T's he isn't crossing.  The overall picture painted is of a player who is experienced but seems to be rushing the game and not giving turns the attention needed.
 
It is possible that this is an elbarately thought ought deception plan, but there are certain things he's failing to do that go far beyond that.  I would wager everything I have that the right explanation is that he's not giving the game the attention needed rather than setting the pefect-storm trap.

[bradfordkay]

You need to remember that Steve just took a new position that is taking a lot more of his time (if that's possible - he was the nurse they relied upon to fill in when others didn't show), so of course he isn't putting as much time and effort into the game as y'all think that he should (he'd better damned well not - he has another opponent who wants the occasional game turn!). 

[Canoerebel]

That's true - Steve does have a job that demands his full attention.  But for the sake of clarity so that readers will have as accurate a picture of what's going on as possible, I haven't noticed any change in his style of play since he changed positions.  And I also hope that my AAR isn't coming across as waging warfare against Steve.  For me, it's an interesting excercise in trying to come to grips with an opponent armed with a big, dangerous weapon (Scenario Two) as quickly as possible.  It's been alot of fun, and I appreciate my opponent and all the contributors to this AAR.

[Canoerebel]

4/7/42 (Part One)
 
Kuriles:  The Allied CA/CL/DD TF engage enemy shipping at Shimishura Jima while a Japanese CL/DD force engaged Allied shipping at Paramushiro Jima.  The fighting was hot and heavy, and I'm surprised that Japan would expose such a large force knowing the Allies have had capital combat ships in the area:
 
Night Time Surface Combat, near Paramushiro-jima at 137,47, Range 2,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CL Oi
      DD Makigumo
      DD Hakaze
      DD Kyukaze
      DD Suresushio
 
Allied Ships
      DD Smith, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      DD Balch, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
      DD Fox  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Paramushiro-jima at 137,47, Range 2,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      CL Oi
      DD Makigumo
      DD Hakaze
      DD Kyukaze
      DD Suresushio
 
Allied Ships
      AVP Avocet, Shell hits 11, and is sunk
      xAP Thomas Barry, Shell hits 9,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Sagadahoc, Shell hits 15,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Harry Luckenbach, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      xAK Florence D., Shell hits 24, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk 
 
Allied ground losses:
      Guns lost 46 (28 destroyed, 18 disabled)
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Shimushiri-jima at 132,51, Range 6,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      DD Minekaze, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
      DD Asagao, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      DD Fuyo, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
      DD Karukaya, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
      xAKL Hinode Maru #18
      xAKL Rikusen Maru
      xAKL Tamaura Maru
      PB Kenkon Maru, Shell hits 24, and is sunk
      xAK Tasmania Maru, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Konsan Maru
      xAK Nagato Maru, Shell hits 8,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Borneo Maru
      xAK Ceylon Maru, Shell hits 3
      xAK Singapore Maru, Shell hits 3,  on fire
      xAK Tohuku Maru
      xAK Ume Maru, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Tatuha Maru, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      xAK Tokusima Maru, Shell hits 3
      xAK Hokumai Maru, Shell hits 1
      xAK Anzan Maru, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Ada Maru, Shell hits 7,  heavy fires
      xAK Hokutai Maru, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Hukuzyu Maru, Shell hits 12,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Kaimei Maru, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
      xAK Kosei Maru, Shell hits 16, and is sunk
      xAK Tyoyo Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
      xAK Ryotaku Maru, Shell hits 3,  on fire
      xAK Nitimei Maru, Shell hits 15, and is sunk
      xAK Nitiren Maru, Shell hits 22, and is sunk
      xAK Tatuha Maru, Shell hits 9,  on fire
      xAKL Takunan Maru, Shell hits 14, and is sunk
      xAKL Nichirin Maru, Shell hits 5, and is sunk
      PB Kinsyo Maru #4, Shell hits 19, and is sunk
      PB Yodozo Maru, Shell hits 9, and is sunk
 
Allied Ships
      CA Northampton
      CL St. Louis, Shell hits 1
      CL Phoenix
      DD Cummings, Shell hits 1,  heavy fires
      DD Case, Shell hits 11,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      DD Conyngham, Shell hits 1
      DD Shaw
      DD Cushing
      DD Brooks
      DD Gilmer
      DMS Hovey
      DMS Boggs, Shell hits 2
 
Japanese ground losses:
      647 casualties reported
         Squads: 15 destroyed, 12 disabled
         Non Combat: 20 destroyed, 17 disabled
         Engineers: 7 destroyed, 7 disabled 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Shimushiri-jima at 132,51, Range 6,000 Yards
 
Japanese Ships
      xAKL Hinode Maru #18, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
      xAKL Rikusen Maru, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
      xAKL Tamaura Maru
      xAK Tasmania Maru, Shell hits 1, and is sunk
      xAK Konsan Maru
      xAK Nagato Maru, Shell hits 6,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Borneo Maru, Shell hits 3,  on fire
      xAK Ceylon Maru, Shell hits 1
      xAK Singapore Maru, Shell hits 2,  heavy fires
      xAK Tohuku Maru, Shell hits 1
      xAK Ume Maru, Shell hits 3,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Tatuha Maru, Shell hits 13,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Tokusima Maru, Shell hits 1,  on fire
      xAK Hokumai Maru, Shell hits 2,  on fire
      xAK Anzan Maru, Shell hits 9,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Ada Maru, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
      xAK Hokutai Maru, Shell hits 13, and is sunk
      xAK Hukuzyu Maru, Shell hits 17, and is sunk
      xAK Ryotaku Maru, Shell hits 10,  heavy fires,  heavy damage
      xAK Tatuha Maru,  heavy fires
 
Allied Ships
      CA Northampton
      CL St. Louis
      CL Phoenix
      DD Conyngham
      DD Shaw
      DD Cushing
      DD Brooks
      DD Gilmer
      DMS Hovey
      DMS Boggs
 
Japanese ground losses:
      75 casualties reported
         Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
         Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
         Engineers: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
      Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled) 

[Canoerebel]

4/7/42 (Part Two)

Kuriles: The Allies lost three DD, three xAK, one xAP and an xAP on the day; Japan lost four DD and roughly 25 transports. The Allied combat TF will retire to Dutch Harbor to replenish. Para's airfield went to level one.

China: The Chinese withdrawl from Kukong is going smoothly so far.

DEI: Other than massed Japanese air raids on Sabang and Langsa, the DEI remains quiet. Palembag forts up to 4.73. Oosthaven airfield just went to level six.

[Cribtop]

Nice ambush. Looks like you got the better end of the sharp exchange.

[Fishbed]

I think your opponent is losing sight of his priorities. If he wanna crush the kuriles, sending the kitchen sink is the only way to have it done quick and well. Sending packets of forces is just another way to lose this war badly. But then again, you're not giving him much choice when it comes to the strategic priorities. Good job CR.

[Canoerebel]

4/8/42
 
Kuriles:  A Japanese carrier force slipped north and sortied in strength against the American combat TF that was retiring to the NE after the Battle of Shimishura Jima.  54 Kates sortied in afternoon strikes that sank CA Northhampton, badly damaged CL St. Louis, and moderately damaged CL Trenton.  This action is taking place well east of Para and it appears that the three Allied battleships, will to the north and undetected, have an advantageous position from which to flee.  But there are a handful of transports that will find themselves in harm's way.  Cursor intel shows the carriers hold 28 fighters, 99 bombers, and 46 auxillary. 
 
SoPac:  A large Japanese force including reported CA (probably DD) and AP sighted between Samoa and Fiji.  This is likely an invasion force bound for Savaii or Pago Pago.  The garrison at PP includes three Marine CD units, so it will be interesting to see how enemy transports might be treated, but at 120 AV the defenses aren't stout.
 
DEI:  No sign of an imminent move on Java or Sumatra.  An American AA unit just landed at Oosthaven and a British heavy AA unit is a few days out.  Japan's air power is concentrated on neutralizing Sabang.  No strikes against the eastern Sumatra bases yet.  The Allies can buy 27th US Div. in two days.
 
China:  Three of the four Chinese units should depart Kukong tomorrow, with the other likely to make it before IJ reinforcements arrive.

[paullus99]

I'll be darned - he did send at least some carriers north. That's a mistake - exposing his shipping (once again) is another. So, he's got at least two carriers supporting the Kuriles, which means only four (or so) availble for the DEI.

What about a raid on Singapore? If you can allocate your carriers for a quick in & out, you could potentially put another big crimp in his plans for the area - especially if you can get a whiff of where his other carriers might be (and if there out in the Pacific supporting whatever moves he has planned, you're in great shape).

[Bullwinkle58]

CR, I've lost track of the map. Has he taken any oil/fuel bases at all?

[Canoerebel]

Oil:  Japan took Balikpan a month ago and Tarakan within the week.  Miri, Brunei, Samarinda, Palembang and Java are still in Allied hands.
 
Japanese Intentions:  As Paullus99 notes, the use of IJ carriers in NoPac is an allocation of force worth noting.  That combined with the sudden appearance of a major IJ amphibious group heading for Samoa - at least that's my initial assessment - is quite a commitment by Japan.
 
Allied Reaction:  Cribtop HQ...darn it, I keep making that mistake...Excuse me, Canoerebel HQ, expected Japan to commit carriers to NoPac following the invasions of Onnekotan and Paramushiro.  Now the Allies have to make use of the lack of these IJ forces in the DEI.  I'm now almost certian to use the PP to buy 27th USA Div. in two days.  A new Brit division has begun it's arrival on the map (the first brigade is on its way to Colombo).  The Allies are mulling over four operations.  The following list is from most likely to least likely:
 
Invasion of Malaya/Burma:  Unbelievably, the Allies stil hold Tavoy and the base to the south (Steve's failure to attend to details like proper mopping up is one of the things I had in mind during yesterday's discussion).  The Allies could air transport in a base force to provide CAP, use the carriers to provide additional CAP, and land roughly two divisions that could then move north to isolate Japan's weak Burma army.  There's a very good chance Steve doesn't have more than about 450 AV in Burma, so the Allies could possibly reclaim Rangoon, which would be a major blow to a Japan already facing a protracted campaign in Sumatra requiring all of its resources.  Also, I like this because if it somehow turns sour, the Allied divisions can make their way back to friendly lines by cross-country marching.
 
Reinforce Sumatra:  This has some allure because Japan is paying a heckuva lot of attention to western Sumatra, as expected and hoped.  It's pretty clear that Steve's post-Singapore plan relied upon Japan holding these bases, so that the Allied invasion of Sabang created a crisis.  There would be some benefit to augmenting the Allied force in Sumatra.  If the KB or a fair part of it is far away, the Allies intend to do everything possible to make Fortress Palembang permanent.  I wouldn't mind throwing everything into a combined land/sea/air campaign if the enemy has weakened its own forces to pursue objectives in the distant Pacific.
 
Invade Denpassar or Koepang:  This idea has lost most of its appeal as I think Japan would ingore the invasions and attend to them later.  Neither gives the Allies the kind of position of strength on which they can build and wage war like Sumatra and Burma/Malaya do.

[Cribtop]

I vote Burma/Malaya.

[John 3rd]

I second that vote!

[DivePac88]

I think any Japanese player would view a 2x division operation in southern Burma with grave concern. Apart from the threat of isolating any Japanese forces in central Burma. There is also the risk of the Allied player moving against Bangkok, and cutting Japan's land communication's with Malaya. This is why it is always important for the Japanese player to backfill the map, and at least cover their main LOC.

[Canoerebel]

I don't have exact details about Japan's situation in Burma, but I can make a pretty good guess.
 
Japan crossed into Burma with several regiments totaling about 450 AV.  This army slowly chased the Allied Burma army up the road.  Currently, the Japanese have Mandalay while the Allies have about 250 AV across the river at Schwebo.  The Japanese haven't pressed, which suggests the army hasn't been strongly reinforced.  I bet two IJ regiments are up around Mandalay while a minor garrison force is holding Rangoon.
 
Steve probably intends to reinforce his Burma army as soon as he can get into the Bay of Bengal, but that hasn't happened yet since Singapore just fell and the Allies hold Sabang and Port Blair.
 

[Canoerebel]

4/9/42
 
Activity all over the map, which certainly makes for a tense and rapidly developing situation...
 
NoPac:  Large enemy TF, apparently transports, nearing Onnekotan Jima, with a variety of combat TFs nearby.  Surprisingly, the enemey carriers retired just when they had gotten into the hen house.  This is evidence - not proof mind you - that Steve is unsure whether I have carriers in theater.  He had two crippled CLs and a variety of transports TFs in his sights but didn't close for the kill.
 
SoPac:  The large enemy amphibious TF is one hex from Pago Pago.  SigInt reports it includes 20th Engineering Regiment.  This will be interesting simply because of the coast defense guns.  The Allies have 137 AV, three forts, eight 6" guns, six 5" guns, eight 155mm guns, and a couple of 3" guns.  Neither of my previous opponents went for Pago Pago, so this may be the first chance I've had to see how effective is Allied coastal defense.  I'm also interetsed in seeing whether Steve allocated any cruisers, battlewagons, or carriers to this force.  The allocation of strength here and in NoPac would be important news for the DEI defense.
 
Bay of Bengal:  Surprising SigInt that 56th Infantry Regiment is aboard a maru bound for Port Blair.  To my way of thinking, Port Blair is still in Allied dominated waters since the Allies just reclaimed Sabang and Langsa.  The base is defended by 120 AV behind three forts.  An IJ three-DD TF has been raiding to the south, sank a xAK, but then ran into an RN two-BB TF.  The Japanese lost a DD in that skirmish.  So, Steve knows the Allies are present in strength, but he probably isn't aware that CVs Ent and York are on patrol just south of Sumatra.  I have to assume that Steve might have been able to slip his own carriers through the Malacca Straights unsighted, so I can't rush off pell-mell yet.  I'm reconfiguring my picket ship line and I've sent a PBY squadron to Port Blair.  I am willing to commit my carriers since holding Port Blair is critical to Allied plans to invade Malaya and Burma. 
 
Reading Tea Leaves:  That Steve seemingly is willing to try to force his way into the Bay of Bengal, added to his previous violent reaction to the fall of Sabang, is most interesting.  You would think all his focus would be on Java (easy pickings for him) and Sumatra (a major problem for him), but instead it's as if he wants to isolate Sumatra and make a move on India. 
 
Allied Carriers:  Lex and Sara will be available at Colombo in four days, where Formidable is stationed.  Hornet is five days out of Capetown.  Indomitable and Hermes are on station south of Padang.
 
Sumatra Garrison:  Here's more information about the Allied MLR, including info about CD and AA:
 
Palembang:  1436 AV, 4.76 forts, 2852 support (2474 required), one American CD unit (eight 155mm guns), seven AA units totaling 115 3.7" guns.
 
Oosthaven:  1372 AV, 3.82 forts, 1728 support (2008 required, so need to bump this up), three CD units with a total of six 6" guns, ten 120mm, and six 75mm.
 
Benkolen:  637 AV, 3.46 fortsm 1468 support (1102 required), one CD with four 150mm and six 75mm guns.
 
Political Points:  The lack of PP continues to be the biggest problem the Allies have in the game.  I'll buy 27th USA Division with 1500 PP tomorrow.  Accumulating that total has prevented me from spending 300 PP to buy two Australian CD units waiting at Perth for deployment to Sumatra.  I need about 500 PP to buy some Canadian units to hit Amchitka Island (not a priority at the moment), and I probably need about 750 AV to round out the units prepping for various points in the Pacific.  If I had an abundance of PP, I'd buy Indian divisions and use them for the Malaya invasion, or I'd send them overland through the jungles to Burma.  Managing PP is a terrific challenge.

[paullus99]

If he does got for Pt. Blair, I really do think you'll give him quite the bloody nose - especially if he isn't committing many carriers in support (given what he sent up north - which looks like at least a Carrier Division).

[Miller]

I cannot find any worthwhile reason for his invasion of PP considering the position of the game elesewhere.

One other thing, if he has split up the KB then that is another accident waiting to happen........

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oil:  Japan took Balikpan a month ago and Tarakan within the week.  Miri, Brunei, Samarinda, Palembang and Java are still in Allied hands.

Japanese Intentions:  As Paullus99 notes, the use of IJ carriers in NoPac is an allocation of force worth noting.  That combined with the sudden appearance of a major IJ amphibious group heading for Samoa - at least that's my initial assessment - is quite a commitment by Japan.

Allied Reaction:  Cribtop HQ...darn it, I keep making that mistake...Excuse me, Canoerebel HQ, expected Japan to commit carriers to NoPac following the invasions of Onnekotan and Paramushiro.  Now the Allies have to make use of the lack of these IJ forces in the DEI.  I'm now almost certian to use the PP to buy 27th USA Div. in two days.  A new Brit division has begun it's arrival on the map (the first brigade is on its way to Colombo).  The Allies are mulling over four operations.  The following list is from most likely to least likely:

Invasion of Malaya/Burma:  Unbelievably, the Allies stil hold Tavoy and the base to the south (Steve's failure to attend to details like proper mopping up is one of the things I had in mind during yesterday's discussion).  The Allies could air transport in a base force to provide CAP, use the carriers to provide additional CAP, and land roughly two divisions that could then move north to isolate Japan's weak Burma army.  There's a very good chance Steve doesn't have more than about 450 AV in Burma, so the Allies could possibly reclaim Rangoon, which would be a major blow to a Japan already facing a protracted campaign in Sumatra requiring all of its resources.  Also, I like this because if it somehow turns sour, the Allied divisions can make their way back to friendly lines by cross-country marching.

Reinforce Sumatra:  This has some allure because Japan is paying a heckuva lot of attention to western Sumatra, as expected and hoped.  It's pretty clear that Steve's post-Singapore plan relied upon Japan holding these bases, so that the Allied invasion of Sabang created a crisis.  There would be some benefit to augmenting the Allied force in Sumatra.  If the KB or a fair part of it is far away, the Allies intend to do everything possible to make Fortress Palembang permanent.  I wouldn't mind throwing everything into a combined land/sea/air campaign if the enemy has weakened its own forces to pursue objectives in the distant Pacific.

Invade Denpassar or Koepang:  This idea has lost most of its appeal as I think Japan would ingore the invasions and attend to them later.  Neither gives the Allies the kind of position of strength on which they can build and wage war like Sumatra and Burma/Malaya do.

The amazing thing to me is where is the Japanese AF? In my scen #2 game, I was just buried under Japanese LBA. With only 35 p40s a month and a low supply of the pitiful hurricanes, a simple attrition war vs your fighters would certainly help him put a stop to all of your offensive activity. Perhaps the oil situation is preventing him from ramping up production. In my scen #2 campaign I have had a 3-2 kill advantage for most of the war (many more op losses for Japan) but still am facing a powerful Japanese air force at the end of 1943 while my fighter pools are virtually empty. Frankly, in 1942 I was unable to contest Japanese LBA in any theater for more than a week without running critically short of fighters. I don't think enough Japanese players focus on this. That is, they are too sensitive about losing Japanese planes and pilots. A Japanese player should start grinding on the Allied air force from day one and keep grinding. Two months of heavy air combat will just about exhaust the Allied air force. If you have no height restrictions in your game, then high level sweeps will just murder 1st generation Allied fighters.

This is not time for him to be timid. He is on the verge of losing control of this game in early 1942.