The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[jeffk3510]

Also- have you sorted out and KEPT all of your APs that can convert to APAs?  That is a must.

[GreyJoy]

July 31, August 1 1942

Rader's usual sweeps today didn't find anything to hit cause i decided to give my guys a couple of days of full rest in order to reorganize my lines and fill some holes.
Later in the afternoons he came with an unsually low-alt ground attack at my units at Karachi. 200 Bombers came in at 11k feet and.....this time my AA finally decided to do something and mauled the attackers, causing in 2 days more than 50 losses on his bombers lines![:D]
Then Rader sent in A SCTF to clear Karachi harbour (luckly enough 6 AKs managed to deliver 16k supplies to Karachi while the KB was R&R at Bombay and managed to leave the base just in time)...1 CLs and 5DDs faced 2 DDs of mine...we exchanged blows for an hour or so during the night (1 DD badly damaged on each side), then when the day came KB's kates (the KB came back!) sunk the survivor DD of mine, while my torpedo bombers frok Karachi managed to hit with a fish the CL Sentai...but unfortunately not causing too many damages. I think the damaged jap DD sunk during the night.

Now August has begun with its promises and shades. We'll have 40 brand new P-38Fs to rely upon but nothing much more...we'll have to remain stiff and focused.

In the meanwhile the Japanese "Manila" Army is moving from Singer to Calcutta...in a couple of weeks Rader will have 3500 more experienced AVs... My goal is to remain alive as long as possible!

[GreyJoy]

Allied Flak greatest day

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Regarding some earlier comments, AFAIK you can not use strategic movement to leave a base when enemy forces are already in that base hex.

Yes, i'm aware of that, thanks! You can enter into a contested base hex using strat mode but you cannot exit in the same way

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yes, conducting an orderly and effective retreat or withdrawal is complicated.  Weird or unexpected things can happen to throw you off schedule, allow the enemy to cut off or isolate an army, or to pound the army to death by air.  Just about everybody has experienced the routine of thinking you have enough time and space to evacuate an important force, only to see the enemy catch up and maul it.  I've had this done to me in Malaya and in India in major ways, and in Oz and China to a lesser extent.  So be forwarned, your position probably isn't as safe as you think it is!

I know CR...have already experienced that in China and in southern India. Think this time i know what to do...hopefully[:)]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510



What about your West Coast to Aussie supply lines?

Have been constantly secured step by step.

Line Islands are well guarded and patrolled. Pago Pago and Savai are my two next bases and then the Fijis. All these bases have fighters, naval bombers, patrol crafts and a DD division lead by a CL.

NZ is well defended too. New Caledonia, on the other side, is still abbandoned...but really don't have enough forces for it at the moment

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

Also- have you sorted out and KEPT all of your APs that can convert to APAs?  That is a must.

Done, even if i was planning to use them during the Marshalls invasion due to their Superb unload ratio... think i'll use them in the Bonins too...i know they're usefull but i need to be ashore fast!

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

You are focussing on the B-17s as an effective attack force. That isn't their only possible role. Some planes are your sword, some are your shield and sometimes swords are used primarily to block or absorb a thrust, having the appearance of an offensive weapon but actually defending the rest of the strike.

Also, you are focusing on maximum altitude.... That's interesting but only half of the story. Their altitude range is 100 feet to 15,000 feet. Are you, possibly, missing somethingby just focusing on the limitation of maximum altitude and not considering other altitude bands or the interactions possible with other forces which aren't limited by these HRs?

Yeah, a 100ft Conga line attack against KB performed by a single squad could also give him some breathing room. He'd know you to not be afraid to use your bombers, and with some luck the CAP is thin and set to 25kft, there being high chances of getting through with no more than 1 or 2 hit bombers. Flak for sure would shoot some down, but he'll think twice about keeping KB 6 hex from Karachi AND keeping only the light 25kft CAP screen. Every Zero CAPing is a Zero that doesnt fly over Karachi, and a lucky 500lbs on the deck of a Jap CV is at minimum 53 plane capacity damaged that needs to be escorted to safety.

i've tried it before but my 4Es never seem to want to take off when the KB is around and they're set on naval attack...probably is due to the fact that pilots in them have their nav bomb skill in their 20s...[:(]
However i'll try it again and see if i can get some lucky shots or drive away some precious zeros from my Capital base...

Thanks guys!

[GreyJoy]

August 2,3 1942
 
We decided to try and see if at Bombay harbour there were any of the jap ships repairing from the last fights in Karachi...60 4Es sent there at 15k found a stiff opposition made up by 50 zeros. Losses were high on both part but we had no luck and found no ships. Rader is clearly aware of the threat posed by my 4Es and is avoiding his major port on the coast.
 
the good news is that his sweeps (this time both Hyderabad and Karachi) went again like a punch into the empty space. My fighters were resting...and he's not committing his bombers that easily no more after the recent losses...It's becoming a game of cat and mouse with Rader chasing me down and me hiding behind my forts and AAs. Saving pilots...saving airframes...and gaining days...and reorganizing my squadrons.
 
 

[CaptBeefheart]

GreyJoy: In terms of your long-overdue fighters, how filled out are those squadrons? What I mean is that if they are operating at half their numbers, you might want to disband them in order to flesh out your other squadrons and save the PPs.

Keep up the good work. This is like watching Star Wars for the first timeas a kid.

Cheers,
CC

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

GreyJoy: In terms of your long-overdue fighters, how filled out are those squadrons? What I mean is that if they are operating at half their numbers, you might want to disband them in order to flesh out your other squadrons and save the PPs.

Keep up the good work. This is like watching Star Wars for the first timeas a kid.

Cheers,
CC

C.D., yes, after the prolonged and bloody battles of the last weeks i re-organized my squadrons, sending home those requested (the 3 AVGs and some other RAF and RAAF squadrons), so keeping pilots and airframes and mixting them among those groups that will remain on line. Now the only PPs i lose are those connected to the ships not withdrawn. I'm still keeping them cause those british DDs, CLs and CVs are badly needed at the moment...


August 4,5 1942

Another 2 days playing the "mouse".
The last Bde (the 5th) of the 2nd UK division safely arrived at Karachi using a fast amphib TF (20 knots) escorted by 4 DDs. This was done right under the nose of the KB which came again and positioned herself 6 hexes south of Karachi, close to Surat. To act as a bait for the KB i moved in from Aden also a SCTF composed of 3 CLs (Mauritius, Caledon and Colombo) and 6 DDs.
My fighters and bombers all had been ordered to stay down again at Karachi. Good call.
Rader came in with 300 fighters on sweep. The A6M2s are now retired and completely substituted by those damned A6M3s. However the fighters didn't find anything and got home without a single kill and with some more fatigue. He didn't send the bombers (for sure they're still recovering after the tremendous losses of the last weeks).
The KB launched 2 big strikes against Karachi harbour, targetting both ships and the port. Kates attacked from 20,000 ft to avoid my flak but didn't score a single hit (100 kates escorted by 50 zeros). As foreseen the Kates went after my CL division, leaving alone the amphib TF that could unload safely the brit bde and move back to Aden during the following day.
The Kates didn't manage to score a single hit on my fast and manouvrable ships[;)].
A side note: the KB has fully replaced its losses and now its strenght seems to be up again at 100%.

A very good turn indeed.

Now that they've shown their face to the enemy my CLs will move back again to Aden. Hopefully Rader will send his usual SCTF to hunt my ships and the KB on naval strike, along with sweeps over Karachi.
If it will so he'll find an empty harbour and empty AFs...all my planes are moved to Hyderabad where 200 fighters will perform a 40%CAP at usual altitudes (P-38s and Hurri MkIIc at 31k, Hurri mkIIb at 20k, P-40s at 15k and P-39s at 9k or lower).
These days of "cat and mouse" have allowed me to refit my units with 15 new planes and to reorganize my groups. Now i equipped a 13 B-24 squadron with naval bombing pilots and prepared the british squadron that will be equipped with Vengeance (with naval bomb skilled pilots).
I need to gain time in order to arrive at the crucial moment (when he'll cross the LOD) with my fighter air force in the best condition possible. At the same time i cannot simply avoid the fight. Rader needs to know that i'm there and that i can still harm his precious air groups.
If i manage to arrive to the crucial moment in a good situation (meaning having groups fully prepared to recieve spits and those 72 hurris) i think i have the chance to contest the air supremacy for some time. Exactly the time i need to get those reinforcements to Karachi. It can be done!

My intelligence is following the movements of those 3500/4000 AVs of the "Manila" Army. They're now moving from Singers to Calcutta. I've counted at least 5 Inf Divisions and 1 tank division. I think Rader is waiting to cross in order to have all his eggs at hand...i'm seeing the BIG stack forming up at 44,19 (now 50 units) and i'm pretty sure he's ready to steamroll...but i think he'll wait to have the perfect STEAMROLLER weapon. Hopefully by the second half of the month i'll be able to equip the first airgroup with the new P38Fs so that i'll have 2 groups of P-38s operating at full strenght. At the same time i'm sweating to get to September when 65 P-40Ks will be available monthly.
My pilots pools remain in a good shape and those guys already operating in India now have gained an incredible experience and most of them are eligible for TRACOM[8D].

[GreyJoy]

Ok, time to do some homework in math (which was not my favourite subject during the school years[:)]).

Let's say i manage to get 6500 AVs beyond 9 forts in a light urban hex.
Without taking into consideration other factors like supplies, how much AV must japan have to get a 1-1 ?

which is the formula? 6500 x 2 (terrain) x 9 (forts)?

How will the armoured units play in a urban hex? are they disadvantaged or not?

[String]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Ok, time to do some homework in math (which was not my favourite subject during the school years[:)]).

Let's say i manage to get 6500 AVs beyond 9 forts in a light urban hex.
Without taking into consideration other factors like supplies, how much AV must japan have to get a 1-1 ?

which is the formula? 6500 x 2 (terrain) x 9 (forts)?

How will the armoured units play in a urban hex? are they disadvantaged or not?

6500 AV in a light urban hex with 9 forts is undefeatable as long as you have supplies and the forts hold. Your armor, by now, should be much better than the Japanese, expect to see his armored units devastated in the first attacks.

[ilovestrategy]

Greyjoy. I love how you present your AAR, its like a pageturner! 

[beppi]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Ok, time to do some homework in math (which was not my favourite subject during the school years[:)]).

Let's say i manage to get 6500 AVs beyond 9 forts in a light urban hex.
Without taking into consideration other factors like supplies, how much AV must japan have to get a 1-1 ?

which is the formula? 6500 x 2 (terrain) x 9 (forts)?

How will the armoured units play in a urban hex? are they disadvantaged or not?

It is not that easy to calculate the AV Japan needs. I usually divide the forts by 3 to get a correct value, this should be then 6500x2+3 = 32500.

So it is almost impossible to capture that base as long as you have supply there. The main problem is to bring the forts down. During that process you take usually that much disabled squads as attacker and killed engineers that it is quicker to rebuild the forts even to lvl 9 than bringing them down.

I had a fight for a fort lvl 9 base in open area (Shwebo) with around 3x the defenders AV. First attack was not that problematic to bring the forts down to lvl 8. But second attack around a week later with some bad rolls resulted in 800 disabled squads for the attacker, around 50 for the defender. Bombarding the defender resulted in destroyed artillery units for the attacker as lvl9 forts offer a massive protection.

With lvl 9 forts even constant air attacks with >200 4E resulted in almost no effect. Only airfield attacks to kill supply are working. The only way i could imagine to take that base is with around the clock naval bombardment as soon as you are contained in Karachi only. So think about a way to prevent that with mines, PTs and enough small stuff (DDs) which is hard to kill with KB but disrupts Naval bombardment TFS.

You too should start to think about the future. Sieging a city is a two way operation. He only needs around 3k AV to contain you there and you cannot use air attacks to weaken him as you cannot attack owned bases. It is a PITA to get sieging units out of a base, so the better way would be some landing somewhere in India sometimes in the future. So do not dump every unit you have into karachi. 6,5k AV is enough to defend it and use the reinforcing divisions for a counter invasion in India at begin of 1943 to force a retreat by him. You can even send a few US division to speed up that process.

For the air losses, yes they seem massive but i think that you opponent goes for a auto victory so he might have stopped most of his naval program and just producing as much airframes as possible and with a good pilot program he can sustain such losses for quite some time.

[Canoerebel]

The defensive multiplier for the Allies should be 3x (urban plus 100% prep) plus whatever fort multiplier is then in effect. With 6,500 AV, the first attack agains the Allies may find the adjusted AV north of 35,000. Even if Japan brought 30 divisions 100% prepped, that would only be an adjusted AV of about 30k, and there's no way Japan will have the equivalent of 30 divisions.

Are you getting lots of SigInt that Japan is prepping units for Karachi? If not, are you getting SigInt about prep for other bases? What do you make of the SigInt?

It was suggested months ago that Japan's window to conquer India closes in September. By that point, the Allies are growing so strong that the task becomes impossible. There may be ways for rader to pull it off using the KB, massive combat ship bombardments, and a sustained massive air campaign, but the odds makers have to be abandoing rader now.

While you still must give your full attention to the defense of India, you have to be thinking ahead if you don't want to make as big a blunder as rader has made. You've got to be thinking how you're going to transition to the offensive in India (amphibious operations ought to figure heavily into your thinking) and in the Pacific (if rader really throws everything at India you know he's weak elsewhere).

I know China capitulated, which gives him more divisions to employ in India, but political points and garrison requirements should slow that.

Once the Allies go on the offensive in India, rader's army (assuming he has 15 or 20 or 25 divisions there) is going to be in big trouble. Withdrawing in the face of a powerful and aggressive army is very, very difficult. He's going to lose a heckuva lot of men.

[GreyJoy]

Hi all,
 
 Thanks Beppi, String and CR for the insights
 
well defenetly Japan will need a good amount of men and time to get rid of Karachi. forts are up to 8 and 56%...so they're growing fast!
All the signtin reports i get are about units prepping for Jodpur...till now nothing concerning Karachi or Hyderabad...that's pretty strange to say the truth. Rader should know (he has had for months now recons flying over my positions and he must be well aware of what he's going to face there!
Concernuing the bombardment runs Rader cannot risk its BBs untill he has the full control of the skies over Karachi cause the presence of 50 torpedo bombers of mine there could really ruin his day (consider that i'm keeping 25 subs in those waters in order to wait for an opportunity shot) and also i'm keeping my RN BBs and my CVs at Aden just for the pourpose of sending there to Karachi if Rader dares to get there with his BBs...i have there mines and 3 CD units too...so not an easy prey!
 
I think it's too early to think about a future offensive in India. Scoodra and Diego are in his hands and with tons of Netties he could easily repulse every attempt of mine to land beyond his positions. To do that i'll have to bring my US CVs to the Indian ocean but then there's the KB there...so i think it's better to think about saving my butt first and use this long window to gain ground in the pacific.
 
For the latter my plans aren't changed. He's reinforcing a lot the Banda Sea islands so i'd like to avoid that route. My plans, at the moment, are the usual ones: Bonins and Gilberts, with the latters coming first acting as a "reinforced" diversion so to drain his attention here while the main blow will be delivered up north. Now i can count of 6 CVs...with a total strenght of 505 aircrafts...a decent platform i'd say in the absence of the KB.
 
I'm pretty confident the KB will stay out of the pacific for a long time now. If he crosses he'll have to keep it there in order to interrupt the communications between Aden and Karachi. He doesn't have many choices at the moment me think.
 
Now every day is leaving Adebadan a cargo with 3200 supplies. My intention is to keep a constant flow of supplies to Karachi...i have lots of transports to sacrifice for this goal and, as far as the experience of the last 3 months tells me, he cannot completely deny this flow...something will pass through!
 
 

[jeffk3510]

Keep in mind folks...he doesn't have 100% of the 6500 AV actually IN Karachi...it is rather spread out.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

Keep in mind folks...he doesn't have 100% of the 6500 AV actually IN Karachi...it is rather spread out.

3000 in Karachi, 3000 at Hyderabad (2 hexes far from Karachi) and 500 at Jodpur. I think, if i don't run crazy all of a sudden, that it's not that difficult to predict that at least 6000 of those 6500 will be easily moved back to Karachi safely

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510

Keep in mind folks...he doesn't have 100% of the 6500 AV actually IN Karachi...it is rather spread out.

3000 in Karachi, 3000 at Hyderabad (2 hexes far from Karachi) and 500 at Jodpur. I think, if i don't run crazy all of a sudden, that it's not that difficult to predict that at least 6000 of those 6500 will be easily moved back to Karachi safely

...moreover i'm still confident i can bring at least two of the 6 divisions coming as emergency reinforcements to Karachi under the Umbrella of the Spits and with the coverage of the RN