The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

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Canoerebel
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by Canoerebel »

Look, if he actually does cross the LOD, you've got to assume he's going to impose an airtight blockade on Karachi.  He knows he doesn't have a chance if he allows those reinforcement divisions into Karachi, so he's going to impose a blockade using the KB, combat TFs to run bombardment and interdiction (covered by LRCAP), and a sustained campaign to try to shut down the airfield at Karachi.  He might not be able to accomplish that, but I guarantee you that any plan to cross the LOD includes that.
 
Well, if you think you can get at least 6k AV to Karachi and maybe more, you also get the Waristan Division, another 300 AV 100% prepped for Karachi.
 
If he isn't prepping for Karachi, he's not coming, because it would be insane to give away that AV multiplier.  He can't be planning to begin prep after he takes Jodpur or Hyderabad, because that would be laughable to think he then had rougly three months to get ready.  Come October and November, he's going to be retreating rather than being on the offensive.
 
GreyJoy, nobody said anything about you going on the offensive in India right now...the comment was that you need to begin planning for the offensives you will eventually undertake.  Contrary to your comment, it is in NO WAY too early for you to be thinking along these lines.  In fact, your are being very negligent in AE if you aren't always planning three to six (or even nine to twelve) months ahead of time.  Prep and logistics requires that kind of forethought, even if you sometimes (often) end up tweaking, modifying, or abandoning said plans for good reasons.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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GreyJoy
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

CR, thx for you comment, which, as always, makes lot of sense.

It will be bloody and depressing (but also aboslutely thrilling) to witness a airtight blocade on Karachi. My point is that to do that he must first of all conquer an AF decently close to Karachi. He cannot think of basing his blockade air force at Surat...that's simply too far away. He need Jodpur for sure...but, above all, he needs Hyderabad. And to get to Hyderabad it takes time, even if he runs like he did in China. To bring two amphib TFs to Karachi from Aden it only takes a week (using my fast xAPs). By the time he manages to get a strong air supremacy over Karachi (i bet he can achieve that) it will probably be a bit late. He needs his surface assets to close the way, but to use them without too many risks he must solve the problem posed by my torpedo bombers at Karachi. So he will need to shut down Karachi AF first...but a level 9 AF, with almost 9 forts, and 600 engeneers and 200 flak guns cannot be shut down easily...The KB, alone, cannot do the whole job. He needs to coordinate everything (LBA, SCTFs and KB) in the right timing...and probably hoping in some luck. In the meanwhile the presence of 72 spitfires and probably 100 hurricanes, along with 50/80 american fighters can, i think, distrupt this fragile coordination program.
The fact that he's not prepping everything for Karachi is, in fact, something really really strange...maybe he wants to isolate it first from Aden and then submit it during a prolongued siege with tons of bombers destroying my supplies...just like what he did with Manila where 2200 Allied AVs were not able, after the supplies were gone, to stop in a urban hex 3500 japanese AVs...

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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by Canoerebel »

He doesn't have time for a Manila or Singapore siege.  If he crosses the line now, he's playing with fire.  He's going to get scorched.
 
But he will impose an airtight blockade of Karachi.  He will post the KB and combat ships offshore and rely on Naval CAP to protect his ships from your LBA.  He's got to do that, because he can't afford to allow reinforcements in (nor could he for the past three months, but if he does decide at this very late date to cross the LOD, you might as well figure you're not going to be bringing any ships for awhile).
 
Are you keeping track of enemy divisions - where they are and what prep reports you've gotten?  If you don't have any SigInt about his divisions, it could be they are prepping for Karachi and you just haven't lucked into SigInt reports for those units yet.  But if you're getting reports of divisions prepping for other bases - Jodpur, Hyderabad, etc., the guy is nuts.  Certifiably, unarguably nuts.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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GreyJoy
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

Not signin for Divisions but for Artillery, tanks, AA, and Eng units...all prepped for Jodpur...
For what concerns the blockade i have many warships to spare and sacrifice in the process and i'm willing to do so if this can allow me to bring men and needed supplies to Karachi.
Anyway it all depends on how much will he be able to push forward with the attack. Till now he proved himself strong for sure, but not strong enough to completeley isolate Karachi and, considering everything, i think my losses in terms of ships have been pretty low...it will be something like Malta...with the difference the the axis didn't have any KB in the Med :)

However soon we'll see what are Rader's plans. I'm really curious too. Think within a week by now he'll have most of his "Manila" army ashore at Calcutta, so let's say within 2 weeks he'll have everything in position to cross the LOD. We'll so be reaching the third week of August 42...semptember is right behind the corner...it's gonna be interesting! Can't wait to see it!!
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by Canoerebel »

You may not need to bring any more reinforcements to Karachi.  With roughly 6,300 to 6,800 AV in place, that's enough to handle as much as 30 enemy divisions by my calculations.  He won't have that many.  But he could really mess you up by bottling up your entire army in Karachi.  He could probably do so with 5,000 AV very long term, as he'll also benefit from the urban terrain multiplier.  How would you like to attack 5,000 x 2 enemy AV with 6,500 or even 9,500 AV?  It might be very ugly.  Meanwhile, he can just bottle up much of your army, thus eliminating any worries he might have that the Allies could mount a major campaign elsewhere in theater.
 
But if you keep the reinforcement AV at Aden, he then has to worry about and plan for Allied amphibious moves on Socatra and other locales.  If he doesn't know where your carriers are, he has to worry that carrier-based CAP can protect such an invasion force from LBA.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by hkbhsi »

GreyJoy,
first of all congratulations on your AAR, it is really very interesting.

For what is worth I will offer my 2c on the situation.

I believe that at this point Raeder will not cross the LOD because, as you mentioned already, it will be basically impossible to defeat 6000AV entrenched in Karachi and doing this it will also give you all those reinforcements for free.

My idea is that, by making you believe with his action that is going to come soon, he is trying to achieve a few things:

- focus your attention in India while he prepares his defensive perimeter everywhere else;
- try to force you to make a desperate move and commit your CVs or other strategic assets in a battle on terms of his choice;
- attrit your Air Force so badly that it will take a long time for it to be ready for offensive action.

My opinion is that he is achieving all of the above because:

- you have been forced to concentrate mostly on that corner of the map. You have been so concerned on Karachi that you have used a million political points in retaining all those units due for withdrawal. In effect he has gained a few months worth of time before you can buy units from Conus to use in offensive action;

- even though his air losses have been severe, at this point he can build as many planes as he likes, especially since by conquering China and India he has increased his industrial capacity by a big margin. Contrary to what someone else said before, with what he gained so far he doesn't need to stop naval production to build a lot of planes.

- by forcing you to commit your most useful offensive weapon (the 4es) trying to stop his land advance, he has killed a lot of them in action that was actually not very dangerous for him. As production level of 4Es is very low and it will take time to replenish all those groups , every bomber lost now is one less bomber to support your future offensive.


What I would do right now is:

- start planning your offensive for the area you think is best (the Pacific is a good bet)

- withdraw immediately all air and naval units overdue and start getting PPS again;

- refuse to give battle in the air over Karachi and start replenish your reserve of fighters; let his bomber be shot down by your flak and cause marginal damage at best if they bomb your troops;

- refuse to lose a single B17 or B24 trying to bomb his troops or his airfield. Even if you kill 10 planes for every 4E lost, it is a gain for him. I actually believe that he is inviting you to do so to kill them.

- move at least some of your subs stationed near Karachi to interdict his shipping routes in the DEI; right now he is freely hauling oil and fuel to the HI with little trouble. That is what makes his economy go.

Alex.



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GreyJoy
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: hkbhsi

GreyJoy,
first of all congratulations on your AAR, it is really very interesting.

For what is worth I will offer my 2c on the situation.

I believe that at this point Raeder will not cross the LOD because, as you mentioned already, it will be basically impossible to defeat 6000AV entrenched in Karachi and doing this it will also give you all those reinforcements for free.

My idea is that, by making you believe with his action that is going to come soon, he is trying to achieve a few things:

- focus your attention in India while he prepares his defensive perimeter everywhere else;
- try to force you to make a desperate move and commit your CVs or other strategic assets in a battle on terms of his choice;
- attrit your Air Force so badly that it will take a long time for it to be ready for offensive action.

My opinion is that he is achieving all of the above because:

- you have been forced to concentrate mostly on that corner of the map. You have been so concerned on Karachi that you have used a million political points in retaining all those units due for withdrawal. In effect he has gained a few months worth of time before you can buy units from Conus to use in offensive action;

- even though his air losses have been severe, at this point he can build as many planes as he likes, especially since by conquering China and India he has increased his industrial capacity by a big margin. Contrary to what someone else said before, with what he gained so far he doesn't need to stop naval production to build a lot of planes.

- by forcing you to commit your most useful offensive weapon (the 4es) trying to stop his land advance, he has killed a lot of them in action that was actually not very dangerous for him. As production level of 4Es is very low and it will take time to replenish all those groups , every bomber lost now is one less bomber to support your future offensive.


What I would do right now is:

- start planning your offensive for the area you think is best (the Pacific is a good bet)

- withdraw immediately all air and naval units overdue and start getting PPS again;

- refuse to give battle in the air over Karachi and start replenish your reserve of fighters; let his bomber be shot down by your flak and cause marginal damage at best if they bomb your troops;

- refuse to lose a single B17 or B24 trying to bomb his troops or his airfield. Even if you kill 10 planes for every 4E lost, it is a gain for him. I actually believe that he is inviting you to do so to kill them.

- move at least some of your subs stationed near Karachi to interdict his shipping routes in the DEI; right now he is freely hauling oil and fuel to the HI with little trouble. That is what makes his economy go.

Alex.




Grazie Alex! Very interesting lecture of the situation.

If Rader isn't coming for Karachi and not crossing the LOD...well...i will consider this my first victory. I have no doubt that Rader, when it all begun, wanted to conquer the whole sub-continent. The fact that he has used so many of his assets is clearly a demonstration that he wanted to go till the very end. So if, after 4 months of prolonged combats he finally has dropped the idea of crossing...well...the future will surely look brighter for me.
I don't think he's reinforcing elsewhere. I count now at least 200/250 units in India. The bulk of his AA and engeneers units are there. I'm sure of that. If he was digging elsewhere he would need right those units.
The loss of PPs is for sure a problem for me but i don't think this was part of his plan. He could not predict that when it all begun.
At the same time if it's true that i could not buy any more units...i had time to fortify my starting bases in CENTPAC and SOPAC and to secure my communication lines between WC and OZ.
Losses of 4Es were for sure important...but my pools never went dry and their presence alone have forced him to committ all those AAs at Surat and that means they are not anywhere else...so it's a double edged sword for both of us.


What I would do right now is:

- start planning your offensive for the area you think is best (the Pacific is a good bet)


Doing that.

- withdraw immediately all air and naval units overdue and start getting PPS again;

Think in 2 weeks it will be done. The only problem is the CV Formidable...i badly need her...

- refuse to give battle in the air over Karachi and start replenish your reserve of fighters; let his bomber be shot down by your flak and cause marginal damage at best if they bomb your troops;

Doing that...but don't want to let completely the controll of the skies to him. I'll try to be as smart as possible and give battle only when i see a favourable condition...

- refuse to lose a single B17 or B24 trying to bomb his troops or his airfield. Even if you kill 10 planes for every 4E lost, it is a gain for him. I actually believe that he is inviting you to do so to kill them.

I plan to use them only to suppress his AFs when he'll be advancing....if he crosses the LOD. If not...i'm not gonna waste them

- move at least some of your subs stationed near Karachi to interdict his shipping routes in the DEI; right now he is freely hauling oil and fuel to the HI with little trouble. That is what makes his economy go.

Would like to...but at the moment my subs are too valuable as a shield of Karachi. With all those subs there he cannot drive as free as he'd like with his navy into those waters...however i'm sending some more subs from pacific to CT for this goal...

Alex...your comments have been very very useful. You are singing out of the choir with your analisys and that helps to see things under a different angle. Thanks a lot! Really!

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GreyJoy
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

You may not need to bring any more reinforcements to Karachi.  With roughly 6,300 to 6,800 AV in place, that's enough to handle as much as 30 enemy divisions by my calculations.  He won't have that many.  But he could really mess you up by bottling up your entire army in Karachi.  He could probably do so with 5,000 AV very long term, as he'll also benefit from the urban terrain multiplier.  How would you like to attack 5,000 x 2 enemy AV with 6,500 or even 9,500 AV?  It might be very ugly.  Meanwhile, he can just bottle up much of your army, thus eliminating any worries he might have that the Allies could mount a major campaign elsewhere in theater.

But if you keep the reinforcement AV at Aden, he then has to worry about and plan for Allied amphibious moves on Socatra and other locales.  If he doesn't know where your carriers are, he has to worry that carrier-based CAP can protect such an invasion force from LBA.

Yes, that's true. But i fear of those 6500 AVs only a fraction will be valuable as combat assets (basically the 2 Aus Divisions, the 2 UK divisions, the Indian divisions and the indipendent bdes. The rest is AVs of base forces and small BNs without any heavy equipment). I'd really like to have a couple more divisions at hand at Karachi for the final onslaught. The rest could be sitting at Aden...
The 15th Army is at scoodra...that means i'll need something more than 2000 AVs to dislodge a force that i must assume is strong and behind 9 lvl forts...However if he wants me in the corner he'll have to committ lots of forces to India (Diego, Scodra, Colombo, Surat, Bombay and Karachi of course)...and those forces won't be guarding Sumatra, Java or the DEI in general....again it's a double edged sword for both of us
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by Andy Mac »

ISF Bns are not worth it in this kind of defence nor are the Indpt Indian Bns they will be inneffective after a siongle attack I would spread tyhem out to act as raiders by coming back onto the main road and rail arteries after he advances

YTou need a solid core of 5,000 AV from Divs and Bdes if you have that backed by Indpt Arty you will be fine I think
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by Canoerebel »

GreyJoy, I like most of the advice one of the posters gave you, but you should employ your 4EBs in a variety of ways throughout the campaign. Assuming rader crosses the LOD, you'll be fighting the most important campaign of the game. The survival of the Allied army and India will be at stake, and if you prevail, a huge Japanese army will be in great peril. You need to bring everything to the battle that you can.

Once Japan crosses the LOD, you ought to hit his his advancing infantry and armor as often as you can to slow them to a crawl. They have a long way to go, and you might be able to turn a one week journey into two or three; or a one month march into two or three. Every day, every week, is a blow to Japan at this point.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GreyJoy, I like most of the advice one of the posters gave you, but you should employ your 4EBs in a variety of ways throughout the campaign. Assuming rader crosses the LOD, you'll be fighting the most important campaign of the game. The survival of the Allied army and India will be at stake, and if you prevail, a huge Japanese army will be in great peril. You need to bring everything to the battle that you can.

Once Japan crosses the LOD, you ought to hit his his advancing infantry and armor as often as you can to slow them to a crawl. They have a long way to go, and you might be able to turn a one week journey into two or three; or a one month march into two or three. Every day, every week, is a blow to Japan at this point.


Agree CR. Completely. I think this is the decisive battle of the war. Kind of an asiatic Stalingrad. We need to use all our assets!
However i'll wait till he crosses before lunching them...i want to use them wisely nonetheless, meaning that i'd like to force him to LRCAP from a distance that makes almost useless his Nicks that are now Capping the 44,19 hex (where 50 units are massing).

soon i'll update the last 4 days of war
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

August 6, 7, 8, 9 1942

The last 4 days of war didn't show anything much different.
Rader keeps on sending 300/350 fighters on sweep missions every day over Karachi, followed by 150 bombers (the number of bombers have significantly decreased since the last month) that attack at 20k causing no serious harm to the port and airfields of Karachi, just a couple of destroyed planes on the ground per turn (mostly useless waipiti or blenheims). I always refused to give any opposition cause i'm still trying to figure out which is the best way to employ my 200 last fighters. Now that only A6M3a are operating the situation has pretty much changed. Most of my fighters operate with a max alt of 20k so those damned new generation zeros always come higher and they can engage my planes in an energy fight that i'm bound to lose. However the new P-38s are coming online and hopefully by the end of the month i'll be able to get enough modern fighters (say P-38s of HurriMkIIc) to be able to give him a decent opposition.
The KB remains parked there, along with what seems a BBTF...i'm pretty sure he's ready to try the first naval bombardment. All my subs are positioned in the correct position in order to make him burn some precious op points and i'm also sending in some more DDs to Karachi in order to be able to cause him some problems.
Supply consumption is however becoming a problem. I took track of the situation and i must admit that supplies are burning faster than what i thought. 400k left now, despite the costant flow from Aden.
To say the truth that "constant" flow hasn't been really a river...2900/3500 supplies per day coming from Aden but that's probably just enough to keep the decrease limited, for sure not enough to encrease the total amount of supplies stocked.
The only good news is that forts in Karachi, despite 4 days of bombings, have been built up till 65% to lvl 9...we're almost there[;)]

Anyway, i'm managing to equip a B24 liberator squadron (16 planes) only with pilots with 70 in Naval Bombing skill. As soon as this guys are ready in their place we'll try to see if we can get any luck against the KB...you never know...

It's amazing to see how much fuel the allied fleet drink in the pacific. Despite months of convoys delivering it, i'm always short of fuel everywhere (from PH to Suva, passing through Christmas Isl and Pago Pago).
In Oz i managed to deliver 200k fuel...not even enough to mount a little naval operation (and i switched off the HI long time ago...). All my TKs are in use and also a lot of xAKs are being used with this pourpose...but we're always short!

Intel keeps on telling me about a HUGE number of big units moving to Calcutta by sea...65th Bde and 57th divisions were just the last two mentioned...seems that Rader is bringing in everything included the kitchen sink!

In the Aleutinas, we're consolidating our new perimeter that goes up to Amkicitka Island. Forts, AFs, Ports are been building fast, and, even if with a slow pace, aux troops, ships and planes are delivered to the theatre.

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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Andy Mac

ISF Bns are not worth it in this kind of defence nor are the Indpt Indian Bns they will be inneffective after a siongle attack I would spread tyhem out to act as raiders by coming back onto the main road and rail arteries after he advances

YTou need a solid core of 5,000 AV from Divs and Bdes if you have that backed by Indpt Arty you will be fine I think

Yes Andy, if my calculations are correct, i have at the moment 4500 AVs between Divisions (Aus,Brit and Ind) and Bde, plus a good amount of armoured units for another 600 AVs. Arty shoudln't be a problem me think...

However i'd really love to have 2 more good divisions with me...just to be sure...
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Intel keeps on telling me about a HUGE number of big units moving to Calcutta by sea...65th Bde and 57th divisions were just the last two mentioned...seems that Rader is bringing in everything included the kitchen sink!

I wonder if these units will be sent by rail to deal with the Dehli area once the LOD switch is flipped? Seal off any supply leaks into Karachi, secure the big pile's eastern flank, and, after dealing with Dehli and points north, swing west to further seal the Karachi perimeter.
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by Bullwinkle58 »

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


However i'd really love to have 2 more good divisions with me...just to be sure...

As much as you're paying attention to the air war it will be and always was going to be a supply story at Karachi. Once you get LOD units you need to carefully consider where you want them to fill out their replacements. Sending them to Karachi to do it there would send your supply numbers down like an Otis elevator.
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

Sorry guys, busy days and not be able to update today. However 4 more days have passed and every doubt is gone. Rader is coming. 3 Army stacks are massing on the borders and Rader in his mails almost explicitly (sp?!) told me he's finally decided to come for Karachi...
 
So let's be ready. Few days and the show will begin!
 
 
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by LoBaron »

Good luck GreyJoy!

Following your AAR with great interest, you got so many good advisors that adding another
one would be superficial, so I´ll keep quiet and just watch the carnage.
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Intel keeps on telling me about a HUGE number of big units moving to Calcutta by sea...65th Bde and 57th divisions were just the last two mentioned...seems that Rader is bringing in everything included the kitchen sink!

I wonder if these units will be sent by rail to deal with the Dehli area once the LOD switch is flipped? Seal off any supply leaks into Karachi, secure the big pile's eastern flank, and, after dealing with Dehli and points north, swing west to further seal the Karachi perimeter.

That is surely a possibility. As far as i can tell Rader is massing 3 different stakcs (one north of Surat, one north of Indore - att 44,19 - and one in the area of Cowpore) so probably he'll take all the 3 different vectors in order to close at once all the route to/from Karachi-Hyderabad.

Every supply is already massed at Karachi and Hyderabad, so i cannot do anything more at the moment...
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by GreyJoy »

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


However i'd really love to have 2 more good divisions with me...just to be sure...

As much as you're paying attention to the air war it will be and always was going to be a supply story at Karachi. Once you get LOD units you need to carefully consider where you want them to fill out their replacements. Sending them to Karachi to do it there would send your supply numbers down like an Otis elevator.

Yup, i'm focusing on it mate. I gotta say i'm a little bit scared by the supply consumption. I'm sending every day those 3500/4000 supplies but cannot do more at the moment cause Aden and Abadan produce very little supply each day.
For sure when he'll be crossing i'll have to focus more on the supply problem than on the troops one. However i've seen that there are some good Infantry units that were supposed to spawn at Madras and will probably arrive at Karachi instead (chindits bdes, some armoured units, an Indian division...) so probably it will really not be needed to send that many reinforcements to Karachi...instead we'll have to keep Karachi as supplied as possible...will be a tough task!
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RE: The Mother of all Air Battles

Post by Andy Mac »

It should improve when you are no longer building lvl 9 forts

Also what size is the base I think the larger it is the less spoilag you suffer.

As soon as he crosses you need to making sure that every base is minimally garrisoned to stop para landings to sieze railroads make sure you have those Bns spread out everywhere also dont forget the fast moving Armoured Car Bns on the Delhi side where they can move fast and delay him.

Lastly on reflection when he crosses I would maybe pull in a Div or 2 especially the low exp ones - a sige is great training to get a couple of low xp divs up

Andy
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