Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[ny59giants]

What do you have at Tulagi?? A couple of BF and construction units would be nice.

I would have at least Tabiteua (sic), Funatuti (Ellice Island), and possible expansion to Ndeni (Santa Cruz) with eye to move on Luganville and Noumea eventually for you perimeter.

[Cribtop]

Tulagi currently just has a big SNLF but is slated to receive three construction LCUs as soon as they finish moving Rabaul's AF from level 6 to 7.

I own TB and four construction LCUs will begin landing there tomorrow. Plan to clean up the Ellice Islands but hadn't really considered Ndeni. I'll do so.

[Cribtop]

Feb 17, 1942

Subs

Nothing at Canton Island despite seven subs in the hex, one Glen equipped that has spotted the enemy TFs for three days straight. Strains credulity but them's the breaks. Some evidence the enemy is laying mines here too.

Skipjack duds on an SC near Formosa while an Ann reports a hit in the same zip code. The enemy subs appear to be back in these waters. Our Ann pilots are getting up into the 40s, 50s and even a few 60s in ASW skill via the on the job training.

4th Fleet

Our forces retire in the face of the US Marines and a report that a Dauntless attacked one of our subs. The SNLF dies in a banzai charge. We have suffered our first check. Taiyo will re-fuel at Kwaj and pick up an AMC with big tanks for underway replenishment. She will then move out as a raider as originally planned.

SE Fleet

Massive reinforcements ship out from Tokyo for Truk. Betties bomb enemy troops at Horn Island and we try a para assault. It is not immediately successful due to level two forts. Odds 1:2, casualties 28(1) vs 14(0). However, our paras are in good shape. We will fly in the rest of the unit and supplies. We also have a second para LCU that could be committed if needed. Finally, an SNLF en route to Truk is prepping for Horn Is and could be FT TFed in.

14th Army

Dumaguete falls.

16th Army

Makassar invaded without incident and Roti occupied. Bandjermasin invasion is approaching the target. We will begin the process of gathering the brigades of 21st and 38th Divisions at Kendari to rest and refit in preparation for NW Oz. We will also have 16th Division pulled out of Luzon soon stage to Kendari.

25th Army

We get good bombing results at Singers to keep forts suppressed. One more day of rest tomorrow and then we attack for what Cribtop HQ hopes is the last time.

Nells from Chumphon waste torpedoes and one pilot killing a motor launch at Medan. At Medan and Sabang CF is gathering the surviving UK PT type ships for a last stand of sorts.

Sandakan falls.

15th Army

DA Prome takes the base easily and forces the surrender of a straggling British base force. We probe Toungoo with 55th Cav Regt and find it too tough. Odds 1:10, but casualties a light 11(0) vs 17(1). An IJA infantry regiment will arrive in a few days to clean this up. The presence of two small Burmese infantry units proves Cribtop Intel was correct to recommend aborting the paratroop assault on Toungoo. It would have failed and instead we got Akyab on the cheap. Just to scare the enemy we marched the RTA Cav Division through the yellow road into central Burma via the "back way." They appear one hex out of Taung Gyi today and hopefully rattle Cuttles. We don't have the force go attack the base but will make a show of reconning and marching on Lashio to determine whether the Chinese are in theater and generally to foment chaos.

China

No change, but we are very close to the first DA at Nanyang. No other rescue attempts appear to be in the offing.

[ny59giants]

Just in case you have overlooked it, I would make sure that you have sent some DMS to Truk. I send the 4 x 19 knots ones over. It is easy to overlook the need of minesweepers in Central/South Pacific until you need them and find they are over 10 days away. Yes, I have done this in a prior game and had a 'duh' moment. [:D]

[Cribtop]

Good thought. We put AMc TFs to watch over our big ports (Truk, Babel, Cam Ranh Bay, Kwaj, etc). We have several DMS and CM at Truk and the balance in 16th Army AO. ACMs have been distributed to all pre war minefield ports and we built a 300 mine minefield at PM with 2 ACMs.

[Cribtop]

Feb 18, 1942

Quietest day of the war to date... the calm before the storm. We will only report on AOs where something happened.

Subs

We leave Canton in disgust.

4th Fleet

4 construction LCUs begin to unload at TB.

16th Army

DA Makassar easily takes the base with 7:1 odds, casualties 662(49) vs 49(0).

25th Army

KB makes Cam Ranh Bay tomorrow and we order a DA at Singapore for tomorrow. Cribtop HQ expects the base to fall. We hope.

15th Army

Allied DA at Toungoo fails with 1:2 odds, casualties 146(0) vs 12(0). IJA reinforcements are en route. Rahaeng makes level 4 airfield.

China

Estimate 48 hours until the first DA at Nanyang. We see no way out for CF's pixeltruppen.

[ny59giants]

KB makes Cam Ranh Bay tomorrow and we order a DA at Singapore for tomorrow. Cribtop HQ expects the base to fall. We hope.

Have you moved or are they on their way to Mersing....minesweepers and other shipping?? I had forgotten to move ships from Saigon and Camrahn Bay towards Mersing when Singapore was close to falling in anticipation of taking over the base. 3 to 6 days to get there can make a difference early in the war.

[Cribtop]

I have not and that's a darn good idea. I'll get them moving this turn.

[Cribtop]

Feb 19, 1942

A day of frustration and even concern at Singapore. [:(]

Subs

O20 misses a PB in a DBCL TF near Tawi Tawi. Our retaliatory DC attack lands a solid hit. Go PB! There are sinking noises later in the turn but not the submarine kind. We assume it's PTs out of fuel crawling back toward Bandjermasin from the abortive raid on Balikpapan some time ago. Stingray duds on a DMS in the Bandjermasin invasion TF. Ha-6 tries to run in on the enemy TF in Canton but twice is spotted and undergoes DC attacks.

4th Fleet

No change.

SE Fleet

No change.

14th Army

Tablas invaded.

16th Army

We sweep mines at Makassar while Nells, apparently bored by the lack of shipping in the area, attack out of fuel PT boats at Bandjermasin. Despite being dead in the water the PTs are still nimble enough to dodge our torpedoes.

25th Army

We send in hordes of IJAAF bombers on ground attack. Then a DA Singapore reduces forts back down to 1. Ugh. We can't get down to 0. 1:1 odds, casualties 1795(51) vs 3035(4). Never had this much trouble with Singers. Ironically, this game we've brought all 5 division equivalents readily available at game start and have the LCUs, 25th Army HQ and Southern Army HQ prepped for the target and in range.

It seems we're allowing the forts to creep just above level 1, probably on the days we attack because it's then we switch from airfield to ground attack. Thus we only knock forts down to 1. We will rest a day and switch to solely airfield attack to suppress forts. Then we will DA two days in a row in hopes of knocking forts down to 0. Cribtop HQ is a little concerned as fatigue levels in our units are growing. Still no sign from the combat report that fatigue is negatively impacting us, but we don't want to grind our troops down. We are very hesitant to shock attack for fear of ruining the shipyard. Also, the adjusted AV isn't the problem, just the forts.

China

17th Division arrives in the Nanyang hex at last. DA tomorrow. We hope to take the place in not more than 3 attacks due to AS differential and the fact Nanyang has been cut off with significant supply dump hits for two weeks now.

[ny59giants]

Double check the leaders of your divisional units (probably all your infantry) at Singapore along with both HQ units. It is not good to find a colonel in charge of a division when it should be some type of general in charge.

LB should be between 13k and 17k over Singapore. It depends on his flak and how many losses you want to take.

[Cribtop]

I didn't think rank mattered, only stats. If I'm wrong I have some leaders to fire. I do put admirals in charge of major fleet units just because it feels wrong to have a Captain command KB.

PS - Cool new Sig Art, nygiants!

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I didn't think rank mattered, only stats. If I'm wrong I have some leaders to fire. I do put admirals in charge of major fleet units just because it feels wrong to have a Captain command KB.

+1.

Can anyone confirm if rank matters?

[witpqs]

I've read from developers in the past that rank does not matter, only stats. On the screen where you can select leaders rank might filter out which ones are available, though.

[Cribtop]

Feb 20, 1942

When times are tough, we rely on that time-honored JFB remedy - beat up on the Chinese! [:'(]

Subs

Ann reports a hit on a sub near Formosa.

4th Fleet

4 construction LCUs have jumped forts at TB from 0 to 1.67 in two days. This will very quickly become a major base hosting 24th Air Flotilla.

SE Fleet

We launch 3 AMCs to probe the South Pacific. We are interested in seeing what CF is up to and looking for evidence of his CVs.

A very interesting little game within the game at Horn Island as we work to re-supply our para unit with everything from Bettys to subs to a kamikaze xAKL. Should be able to attack again soon. The survivors of PM stumble into Japanese controlled Terapo today and presumably will re-occupy it. We'll clean them up as we don't need a thorn in our side.

Cribtop HQ is considering a para assault on a NE Oz base at an appropriate time in the future just to rattle CF when we are in fact planning a big move elsewhere. We are working on a series of Maskirovka ideas like this to cover phase 2 when the time is right. We are also putting some deep thought into whether we want to move farther south in this AO to try to cut (extend really) the Australian supply link. Have to weigh the benefit versus the possibility of overexpansion and the need to re-position KB.

14th Army

Tablas falls.

16th Army

Bandjermasin invaded. Our intel that enemy mines was present is correct and 4 DMS work on that threat. Celebes Sea Sqdn covers from 1 hex out - no sense banging a CA into a mine! The invasion goes in without a problem, DA tomorrow. Port attacks by Netties designed to soften up any CD guns instead sink 5 Dutch PT boats disbanded in the harbor.

Tawau invaded.

25th Army

We launch the IJAAF at 16K feet against Singapore's airfield and get a great ratio of hits to flak damage. We will continue to pound the airfield at this altitude until the City falls. We are resting our troops and bombarding for a few days to cut down on DIS and FAT. Intention is to wait until we feel confident the army can sustain two consecutive DAs to try to finish off that last pesky fort level.

KB takes on planes and pilots, filling out her air groups nicely. Frankly, there wasn't much to do though as losses have been very light considering how busy we've been. This is the first real rest and refit stop for KB since the beginning of the war. The ships are all in the green but we'll clear SYS damage down to zero as it should only take a few days.

15th Army

We sweep Toungoo in force but the AVG has fled to Mandalay. Pursuit into middle Burma continues apace and we should be knocking on the door of Magwe soon. CF chose not to make a stand with the Rangoon garrison in the last jungle hex before entering the central plains.

China

Cribtop HQ anxiously awaited news of the first DA at Nanyang - and was not disappointed. We reduce forts to 2, achieve 3:1 odds out of the gate, casualties 7315(57) vs 5503(24). The combat report showed the enemy already suffering from lack of supplies. Our troops are in good shape and could attack again tomorrow but we will go every other day to keep them fresh until the final push. No sight of any meaningful counterattack or rescue effort.

5th Fleet

We launch 2 picket ships and an invasion TF for Adak. This will be our last adventure in the Aleutians. Recon shows no enemy LCUs present.

Home Islands

CV Junyo arrives today. Banzai! We will accelerate Hiyo now.

[Nemo121]

I don't think rank matters... although most Colonels up for divisional command will be inferior to the Generals on offer. But if a Colonel had better stats than a General I'd go for the Colonel in a heartbeat.

When Michaelm posted about what stats determined performance in which roles he never mentioned rank as an issue - albeit that it impacts indirectly as I outlined above.

[Cribtop]

Feb 15 Strategic Analysis

Cuttlefish couldn't get out a turn last night because a certain stupid Japanese player forgot to hit the "end turn" button. We are a few days late for a strategic analysis anyway and thus will make lemons from lemonade.

Friendly Situation

In general we are progressing nicely, with Canton and Singapore being the only holdups so far. Losses have been very light for all three branches of the Imperial service. We are beginning to establish a perimeter in 4th and SE Fleet AOs and will soon be trying to form a defensive line in Burma once we finish it up. MKB is intact and will soon add Junyo to its ranks. Pilot training and the economy are in good shape (although we still need to rationalize our R&D - a few things have slipped a bit with a newborn around! [;)]).

We have created an opportunity for a major victory in North China at Nanyang and Sian. How far we will be able to exploit this remains to be seen, but at this point Critop HQ rates the odds CF slips the trap at Nanyang at less than 1 in 5.

Enemy Situation and Intentions

We have played deep enough into the game that Cribtop Intel feels its initial guess is correct. Cuttlefish has remained in places of political importance rather than fall back and attempt any of the Allied gambits. For example, large garrisons remain in Batavia and Soerabaja, he left the Aussie Brigades in Singapore, and fought for Rangoon for a time before withdrawing. In the Pacific, we see evidence of base construction at Fiji, the Samoas, Vava'u and Canton Island. Enemy CVs are still believed to be in the SWPAC or SOPAC AO. We have been watching for a harassment raid in either SE Fleet or 4th Fleet but nothing so far. The enemy has suffered significant but not unbearable losses in airframes and ground units. While we have matierially attritted his support vessels his major naval assets are relatively unharmed - with the significant exception of damage to the UK battle line at Nicobar Island. We estimate the British BBs are only damaged but are hoping that one sank.

What does this mean for the future? Obviously no one knows for sure, but certainly the odds we will face a more historical American advance through SWPAC and/or SOPAC is increased if CF is intentionally choosing to constrict his options to a more "period" set of assumptions. Much of our war plan was and is designed to encourage channeling the initial Allied advance away from the vital industry of the DEI, so this may be a boon to us. Time will tell.

Desired Endstate

We are nearing the end of our Phase I goals, and have almost achieved the historical perimeter with a few traditional add ons in the Aleutians, New Guienea and the Gilberts. Phase II looms ahead but Singapore is proving to be a more substantial roadblock than expected. We will concentrate on finishing that bastion and then seizing Sumatra and Java. NW Oz and Phase II will be next, followed by finishing any sieges and then transitioning to the defensive. This is Scenario 1, so we need to be realistic and avoid overextension. The major strategic question facing Japan is whether to move deeper into the South Pacific or to go for parts of Oz other than the Darwin region, which is considered part of our Phase I objectives.

The main strategic rationales for SOPAC include establishing defensive foregrounds (i.e. delay) and cutting or diverting the LoC to Australia. Any significant move here will require us to reposition MKB back to Truk unless CF shows his CVs somewhere else, which seems unlikely at this point. Capturing Fiji or Noumea or even just the New Hebrides are all considered. In a previous PBEM we wanted New Caledonia and the New Hebrides to precipitate a CV clash in '42 on favorable terms. However, engaging in a major battle at the end of our logistical tether for a salient in our perimeter seems less appealing in this game for a variety of reasons. We certainly won't grab any of these targets and try to defend them to the hilt, as that could repeat the mistakes at Guadalcanal made by Japan IRL. That in turn raises the question of whether it's worth it to grab them at all, especially given our planned Phase II target (which we're still being a bit coy about for OpSec reasons, FYI).

Execution

For now, the goals are clear. Finish Singapore with the new "airfield attacks only plus 2 consecutive DAs" strategy. If that fails we'll reinforce the place, but I've never had to do that when I brought 5 divisions. In 16th Army AO we'll take Denpasar, then recombine 21s and 38th Divisions at Kendari. 16th Division will be re-assembled and pulled out of the siege at Luzon. These divisions plus 3 armored regiments currently a day out from Kendari form a potent force that will be used for either NW Oz (my preference) or Java. If Singapore continues to be a problem we will use one of these Divisions to finish the city while the other two invade Java with the intention of forcing a siege until Singers falls. If Singapore falls quickly we will capture Darwin with two divisions and keep the third in theater reserve.

In the Pacific, we will attend to defensive tasks for now and raid/probe SOPAC with AMCs, subs and the Taiyo.

In China we will finish Nanyang, take Sian, and then determine whether to reinforce southern China or push on in the North. If we choose the latter path we will probably buy a division out of Manchukuo for use in Southern China as we don't want the Kanshien/Kukong/Wuchow line of bases to have forever to dig in.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Cuttlefish couldn't get out a turn last night because a certain stupid Japanese player forgot to hit the "end turn" button.

Cuttlefish did that a few times in his AE game with Q-Ball, so Cuttle just gave Q-Ball the password so that Q-Ball could open the turn, click the "end turn" button, and proceed. You and Cuttle may want to do the same thing.

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
Cuttlefish couldn't get out a turn last night because a certain stupid Japanese player forgot to hit the "end turn" button.

Cuttlefish did that a few times in his AE game with Q-Ball, so Cuttle just gave Q-Ball the password so that Q-Ball could open the turn, click the "end turn" button, and proceed. You and Cuttle may want to do the same thing.

Yeah, I remember that. This is my first fumble in this regard, but if I do it again I'd certainly trust CF with my password.

[Nemo121]

Under the beta executable you can change your password mid-game if necessary - which would allow things to continue if that ever happened again ( under a beta exe ).

[ny59giants]

I would place a higher priority on Java than on Northern Australia. Except for the Resources at Port Hedland and Darwin, there are no economic assets there. I would go for the capture of all of Northern Australia from Darwin (down to Daly Waters) to Port Hedland and include Exmouth more as a tripwire. It shouldn't take more than one division at most (plus some large SNLF or Naval Guards) to take it unless he has heavily reinforced any of those bases and dumped in huge amounts of supplies. If you have Horn Island and an Air HQ at Koepang, it should be very difficult for him to interdict any of your invasions.

There is a large potential dot base just off the coast from Darwin, if you need a base close to Darwin to use for your air force. If he tries to hold this base, then you can use para and armor to cut him off.