The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D][:D]

[X(][X(][X(][X(][X(][X(][X(][X(]

[:-][:-][:-][:-][:-][:-]

I just don't know what else to say about this topic and the comments thus far.

And you were the one who started talking about women[;)]

[Canoerebel]

Yeah, but consider my offering (Margaret Lockwood).  But look what has happened!  What hath GreyJoy wraught?

[jeffk3510]

You don't like women disguising themselves as 16 year olds in certain areas GJ?  I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but boy howdy a hairy women makes me vomit...
 
India --> Karachi ---> Lockwood ----> Naturally Hairy Women ----> Shaven vs. Unshaven
 
What in the world has happened to your AAR GJ?

[GreyJoy]

Was just an interlude before the upcoming next turn guys. Don't worry, let's forget about Gillette, Wilkinson and all those stuff

Back on track soon.

[JohnDillworth]

Al right folks, nothing to see here.  You all have turns to do.  Move along

[crsutton]

Naturally hairy women aside, I just wanted to let you know that I have been following but not commented because you are getting good advice (and plenty of it from a lot of players). Just let me say that considering your opponent's skill level, you are doing a great job. I concur with your stable of advisers in that Karachi is pretty safe and you need to be really thinking about hitting him in all the places that he is weak. It is unfortunate that he will have masses of freed up China troops but I am sure you will see many opportunities.

In addition, the advice to advance in the Solomons was very sound. You can leap frog bases and do not have to risk carriers there. Plus, invading atolls is very dangerous without LSTs, APAs, and AKA type ships that you won't have until mid 1943.

A comment about air power in scen #2. Rader is losing heavily but I know for a fact that a good Japanese player who knows production well can produce a mountain load of aircraft and trained pilots in scen #2. My campaign is nearing the end of 1943 and I have destroyed close to 20,000 Japanese airframes while losing about 13-14,000 myself. Yet, I see that I have not made a dent in the power of the Japanese air force. Not to mention that my skilled opponent is already producing every Japanese second generation fighter (including the frank) by 12/43. Rader has a plan and I don't think his air losses to date will be an issue for him. You will just be blown away by his ability to recover from his losses, while you will have to literally watch every aircraft to keep you squadrons intact. Your squadrons may be full but you will start getting a lot of new squadrons with no airplanes in them and none in your pools to fill them out. This will actually hurt you as squadrons with no planes can only train pilots very slowly. So be wary. I think grinding down the Allied air force in 1942 and early 1943 is a very viable Japanese option in scen #2.

Also, you will be amazed how powerful your tank units become once they have filled out with good tanks. (and have some air protection) Even a single tank regiment can hold off a Japanese division once the grants, lees and shermans start to arrive. I would not commit a lot of tank units to the defense of Karachi but save them for your counter offensive. Since he is not really moving into OZ, I would start shipping virtually all of my spare US, and Australian tank units for a counter invasion somewhere in India (or anywhere) when the time is right. There really are only two places in the Pacific where tank units can totally dominate-Australia and India. Use them in India and use them all and you can ruin his life. You have an a Australian cavalry brigade that upgrades to medium tanks. This actually becomes one of the most powerful units in the game. Buy it and all mobile Australian units out that do not have to withdraw. Pull every American Army tank unit out of the Pacific (leave the Marine units) and every American tank destroyer unit as well. If his carriers are out of the Indian ocean then a gradual conservative advance towards Rabaul will keep him very busy while you begin moving units to the SE Asia theater for a serious counter blow. Your armor is the key. Bring it but bring it all. His total commitment to India leaves you many options for a counter blow to his flank. It could be India proper, Burma or even Sumatra, but I think that your armor can turn India into a killing field. It is just perfect tank terrain.

You are doing well keeping the pressure on in the Pacific. Just do not get "too" bold as in scenario #2 not only does he get a tremendous AF but his carrier force can advance rapidly as well. I am pretty sure the Japanese player can have both Taiho class carriers (Shinano comes on as a Taiho in #2) and three or four Unryus (I believe he gets extras) by early 1944. Not to mention that Judys and Jills will come much earlier. The Japanese player can mount powerful counter-attacks as a result. Good hunting.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

...i was reading back this AAR when Rader landed in India...wow...seems like a century ago!...however, i was considering the options he had...really think that if he had marched all the way to Dehli and Northern India, landing at the same time at Karachi with the KB in cover...well...there would have been no other options for me rather than a slow and painfull capitulation...at that time i barely have 2500 AVs in the whole India...most of them retreating towards Karachi...with no air cover...no forts to hide beyond...with the KB sitting in front of Karachi forbidding any reinforcement from Aden and with those tank armies ourflanking my poor battered divisions...well it would have been a massacre

This is the second "major" AAR where a Japanese player has secured total sea supemacy in the IO, and then failed to exploit it. Why they want to march 200 IJA LCUs across the sub-continent, jungle and desert, when they could ride in comfort I just don't understand. It's as if a continental land mass makes them all Napoleon or something. Karachi is the key to India, and sea-power is the key to Karachi. Rader got Bombay, and then got lazy or bored or confused or something. Why he persists in multi-hundred-plane air raids as the calendar turns to November is odd. He's too late. He dwaddled too long.

[Canoerebel]

What Bullwinkle means to say (in his own words, which I find extraordinarly eloquent) is that rader has already "screwed the pooch."

And Bullwinkle is exactly right in his evaluation of rader's mistake.

[Nemo121]

BW,

Proponents of Boyd would point to the human tendency to freeze and pursue the last course of action which seemed appropriate when faced with a situation which is getting out of hand. Rader's last plan which seemed appropriate was to march up through India to Karachi and bomb it into dust to support his infantry assaults. When he dithered and failed to commit appropriately it showed he was unsure what to do. Since then he has just carried through his last plan whilst not accounting for changed circumstances.

He's Hannibal - Able to win victories but not use them to win a campaign. Doesn't make him a bad player at all, but it does mean he is liable to continue a losing plan which is rendered inappropriate by changing situations.

So far no-one has attempted the optimal strategic approach to India. Pushing slowly north and allowing the Allies to retreat into Festung Karachi isn't really optimal.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Naturally hairy women aside, I just wanted to let you know that I have been following but not commented because you are getting good advice (and plenty of it from a lot of players). Just let me say that considering your opponent's skill level, you are doing a great job. I concur with your stable of advisers in that Karachi is pretty safe and you need to be really thinking about hitting him in all the places that he is weak. It is unfortunate that he will have masses of freed up China troops but I am sure you will see many opportunities.

In addition, the advice to advance in the Solomons was very sound. You can leap frog bases and do not have to risk carriers there. Plus, invading atolls is very dangerous without LSTs, APAs, and AKA type ships that you won't have until mid 1943.

A comment about air power in scen #2. Rader is losing heavily but I know for a fact that a good Japanese player who knows production well can produce a mountain load of aircraft and trained pilots in scen #2. My campaign is nearing the end of 1943 and I have destroyed close to 20,000 Japanese airframes while losing about 13-14,000 myself. Yet, I see that I have not made a dent in the power of the Japanese air force. Not to mention that my skilled opponent is already producing every Japanese second generation fighter (including the frank) by 12/43. Rader has a plan and I don't think his air losses to date will be an issue for him. You will just be blown away by his ability to recover from his losses, while you will have to literally watch every aircraft to keep you squadrons intact. Your squadrons may be full but you will start getting a lot of new squadrons with no airplanes in them and none in your pools to fill them out. This will actually hurt you as squadrons with no planes can only train pilots very slowly. So be wary. I think grinding down the Allied air force in 1942 and early 1943 is a very viable Japanese option in scen #2.

Also, you will be amazed how powerful your tank units become once they have filled out with good tanks. (and have some air protection) Even a single tank regiment can hold off a Japanese division once the grants, lees and shermans start to arrive. I would not commit a lot of tank units to the defense of Karachi but save them for your counter offensive. Since he is not really moving into OZ, I would start shipping virtually all of my spare US, and Australian tank units for a counter invasion somewhere in India (or anywhere) when the time is right. There really are only two places in the Pacific where tank units can totally dominate-Australia and India. Use them in India and use them all and you can ruin his life. You have an a Australian cavalry brigade that upgrades to medium tanks. This actually becomes one of the most powerful units in the game. Buy it and all mobile Australian units out that do not have to withdraw. Pull every American Army tank unit out of the Pacific (leave the Marine units) and every American tank destroyer unit as well. If his carriers are out of the Indian ocean then a gradual conservative advance towards Rabaul will keep him very busy while you begin moving units to the SE Asia theater for a serious counter blow. Your armor is the key. Bring it but bring it all. His total commitment to India leaves you many options for a counter blow to his flank. It could be India proper, Burma or even Sumatra, but I think that your armor can turn India into a killing field. It is just perfect tank terrain.

You are doing well keeping the pressure on in the Pacific. Just do not get "too" bold as in scenario #2 not only does he get a tremendous AF but his carrier force can advance rapidly as well. I am pretty sure the Japanese player can have both Taiho class carriers (Shinano comes on as a Taiho in #2) and three or four Unryus (I believe he gets extras) by early 1944. Not to mention that Judys and Jills will come much earlier. The Japanese player can mount powerful counter-attacks as a result. Good hunting.

Thanks crsutton! You really made me open my eyes (not that the others didn't but what you say about the tanks and air units is clear and sound!)

I've give orders right away to mass my Oz mobile forces at Adelaide. It will take some time to buy back all those units but they are pretty small and do not need lots of PPs. I'll move them to CT asap.
For what concerns the US tanks, i have some of them already committed in the Solomons and SOPAC. I'll try to reorganize and leave only the USMC tank units and send everything else to Panama ASAP
For what concerns Indian tanks, all those who were already on the continent are in Karachi, while the strong armoured division is still at Aden waiting for the counteroffensive.
I'd love to give him the same medicine that he gave me during the blitz in China and southern India...

For what concerns Air supremacy...yes, i'm seeing that Rader's numbers, despite the horrendous losses, are still very high...no matter what he always have 1000 fighters and 6/700 bombers at hand in India...[:o]...while my pools are always dry and my force becomes everyday thinner and weaker.
The only consolation is that i have no choice but to fight. Now i have nowhere to retreat and nowhere to hide...it's just fight or die.

I just hope the advance in the Solomons will force him to divert some air assets back to the pacific...

Again: thanks!

[GreyJoy]

Oct 25 -26 1942

Two unlucky days.

After the fall of Multan i had ordered a mass bombing of the base...want to keep that damned AF closed for good!

The 25th begun with storms all over India...not a single air mission was flown on either side.
A TF composed of 7 jap DDs approached Karachi by night...my subs managed to distract them and they arrived at one hex from Karachi when the dawn came...but those bastards hide under the storms and my bombers didn't find them...then the night arrived and they entered in my harbour...we faced them with 5 DDs and a CLAA...i had one of the best commander and they didn't achieve surprise...nonetheless we ended up with 2 brit DDs torpedoed and sunk while they went away unscacthed...[:o]


Night Time Surface Combat, near Karachi at 40,8, Range 2,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
DD Akizuki, Shell hits 1
DD Yugumo
DD Akatsuki
DD Asagiri
DD Oboro, Shell hits 2, on fire
DD Tadeshiwa
DD Tatsuyuke

Allied Ships
CLAA Van Heemskerck
DD Scout
DD Decoy
DD Griffin
DD Nestor, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Norman, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk



Poor visibility due to Thunderstorms with 96% moonlight
Maximum visibility in Thunderstorms and 96% moonlight: 3,000 yards
Range closes to 10,000 yards...
Range closes to 8,000 yards...
Range closes to 6,000 yards...
Range closes to 4,000 yards...
Range closes to 2,000 yards...
CONTACT: Japanese lookouts spot Allied task force at 2,000 yards
CONTACT: Allied lookouts spot Japanese task force at 2,000 yards

...luckly my subs slowed them down again on their retourn path and my B-25s managed to put 3 bombs on 3 of them...better than nothing!


Morning Air attack on TF, near Surat at 35,17

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 30 NM, estimated altitude 2,100 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes


Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 14


Allied aircraft losses
B-25C Mitchell: 7 damaged

Japanese Ships
DD Asagiri
DD Akizuki, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DD Tadeshiwa, Shell hits 1, Bomb hits 1, on fire
DD Tatsuyuke, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires


Then the day came and 70 of my 4Es, along with 32 Wellingtons, bombed Multan AF without opposition.
He sent the usual sweeps of Tojos and zeros, followed by 100 Netties escorted by 100 Oscars (I and II)...again the Netties managed to get through and sunk another DD... then he came with 180 Helens heavily escorted...we shot down some of them but our power is slowly fading away...



Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Karachi at 40,8

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 109 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 43 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 45
A6M3 Zero x 21
A6M3a Zero x 29
G3M2 Nell x 37
G4M1 Betty x 52



Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 6
Sea Hurricane Ib x 11
Hurricane IIa Trop x 12
Hurricane IIb Trop x 5
Hurricane IIc Trop x 32
Spitfire VIII x 31
Kittyhawk IA x 4
P-38F Lightning x 18
P-38G Lightning x 5
P-39D Airacobra x 21
P-40E Warhawk x 16
P-40K Warhawk x 38


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M3 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
G3M2 Nell: 7 destroyed, 7 damaged
G3M2 Nell: 1 destroyed by flak
G4M1 Betty: 2 destroyed, 2 damaged

No Allied losses

Allied Ships
DD Fortune
CLAA Van Heemskerck
DD Encounter
DD Nizam
DD Griffin
DD Isis, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Napier
DD Foxhound


At the end of the turn we count 128 enemy planes shot down, against only 22 of ours in India...but those 22 are priceless while he has tons of everything[:-][:-][8|]

However...now we're waiting for his advance over Multan...will be a matter of days...


In the pacific the KB, along with the replenish TF and a strong SCTF, is parked between Canton and Christmas...what is he doing there????[&:][&:][&:] it's been four days now since he hasn't spotted a ship of mine...and he's clearly burning fuel for no real gain...pretty strange i'd say.

In the Solomons we're noticing a huge numbers of ships in the bay of Buka (north of bouganville)...ordered a recon for tomorrow...is he really starting noticing this theatre just now??...we're now pretty safe i'd say at Guadalcanal...

Intel says at Iwo another Regiment has arrived...so now we have 2 regiments, 1 mortar unit, 1 Army HQ and one base force confirmed...

[GreyJoy]

Nemo, BW and CR, i tend to agree - even if i do not feel that confortable cause it ain't over yet - that Rader gave me too much time (three months at least) to fortify and to retreat beyond the LOD. If he had gone right for Karachi since the beginning...if he had kept his KB there....i'm pretty sure by now the Imperial war flag would be yelling over Karachi. I do think, however, that the fighting will of our air force kept him feeling unsecure...the constant presence of my torpedo bombers and fighters at Karachi probably forced him to move cautiously...he waited to build up every base he got...in order to get them to lvl 9 AF and to place hundreds of planes there...a safe route for sure but that was not needed...when i had just a bunch of P-40s and Buffalos and Hurricanes he could have come directly for Hyderabad and i had nothing to throw at him...with Hyderabad in his hands by may 1942...well...Karachi would have been doomed.

[wpurdom]

So far no-one has attempted the optimal strategic approach to India. Pushing slowly north and allowing the Allies to retreat into Festung Karachi isn't really optimal.

A tantalyzing remark if I ever saw one. I'm pretty sure you would go for deep penetration on the West Coast of India as soon as feasible and sustainable. Any comment on the approaches?

My off the cuff analysis without deep calculation does something like this: If the Japanese are attacking during the amphibious bonus they can presumably adjust their landing target bassed upon recon. Some Allied defenders advocate concentrate on Bombay, others on Karachi. Obvious the Japanese player has a choice between direct attack on Karachi and lodgement in the Bombay area (either Bombay or Surat/Bombay - if you land both place you have a port to bring in reinforcements and the paratroppers without danger) trying to use paratroops and rail to rapidly isolate Karachi. If you directly attack Karachi though you have more difficulty bringing up reinforcements after the garrison is bolstered if you didn't bring enough to the party.

Nemo, are you willing to give any elucidation on your approach towards calculating the optimal approach? Has anybody tried to calculate whether the IJN can transport enough to Karachi to guarantee rapid seizure with one lift?

[wpurdom]

At the end of the turn we count 128 enemy planes shot down, against only 22 of ours in India...but those 22 are priceless while he has tons of everything

Greyjoy, you have an incredibly pessimistic view of your air battles. Only with Nemo have I seen the sort of favorable ratios you are getting at this stage. To get them in a standup fight instead of hit and run is incredible.

You're minimizing the effect of all these victories on the pilots. Between the ratios of losses and the fact that the fighter dogfights are over your city, you have to be winning substantially on first equalizing and now probably heading towards pilot skill superiority. Even if he can initially sustain the ratio of airframe losses, I don't see how the pilot ratio in losses can be sustained when you turn your 70's skill/experience level into 80's and he turns his 70's into dead.

[GreyJoy]

Oct 27 - 28 1942

He's indeed reinforcing Buka. We sent 16 medium bombers (b26 and hudsons) from Lunga at 100 ft...our guys got 3 xAKs (sunk) and 1 PB...enough to force Rader to finally bring some airframes to Rabaul i think...we've also spotted at CL moving from Truk to Rabaul...for sure we're going to face some SCTF raiding at Lunga in the next days[;)]

At Karachi the usual days of battles...and again Tojos and Spits are the kings of the skies...the point is that i have 30 spits in the air at best...he has 250 Tojos with ease...
I have almost no more hurricanes...my P-40Ks pools are empty and my P38s too...i have LOTS of exellent pilots...but very few decent fighters to give them...now my fighting force is of 100/120 fighters at best...not enough...his bombers are beginning to get through with constancy and i cannot do anything more to stop them...[:(]

the KB is still lingering in those waters...[&:]

more 7k supplies delivered at karachi...

Multan is still empty and closed...

more news to follow...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: wpurdom

At the end of the turn we count 128 enemy planes shot down, against only 22 of ours in India...but those 22 are priceless while he has tons of everything

Greyjoy, you have an incredibly pessimistic view of your air battles. Only with Nemo have I seen the sort of favorable ratios you are getting at this stage. To get them in a standup fight instead of hit and run is incredible.

You're minimizing the effect of all these victories on the pilots. Between the ratios of losses and the fact that the fighter dogfights are over your city, you have to be winning substantially on first equalizing and now probably heading towards pilot skill superiority. Even if he can initially sustain the ratio of airframe losses, I don't see how the pilot ratio in losses can be sustained when you turn your 70's skill/experience level into 80's and he turns his 70's into dead.

That's what i've been hoping for...he must have lost 2/3000 pilots by now over karachi...but i cannot see any decrease of his overall performances...

[GreyJoy]

SIG INT REPORT FOR Oct 28, 42

124 aircraft are based at Truk (112,108).
54th Construction Battalion is loaded on xAK Kiyozumi Maru moving to Buka.

 
So he wants to build up Buka...and he's probably moving fighters to Truk-Rabaul area...good to know

[wpurdom]

That's what i've been hoping for...he must have lost 2/3000 pilots by now over karachi...but i cannot see any decrease of his overall performances...

At the end of the turn we count 128 enemy planes shot down, against only 22 of ours in India...but those 22 are priceless while he has tons of everything

Just how bad does he have to do for you to see a decline in performance?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: wpurdom

At the end of the turn we count 128 enemy planes shot down, against only 22 of ours in India...but those 22 are priceless while he has tons of everything

Greyjoy, you have an incredibly pessimistic view of your air battles. Only with Nemo have I seen the sort of favorable ratios you are getting at this stage. To get them in a standup fight instead of hit and run is incredible.

You're minimizing the effect of all these victories on the pilots. Between the ratios of losses and the fact that the fighter dogfights are over your city, you have to be winning substantially on first equalizing and now probably heading towards pilot skill superiority. Even if he can initially sustain the ratio of airframe losses, I don't see how the pilot ratio in losses can be sustained when you turn your 70's skill/experience level into 80's and he turns his 70's into dead.

wpurdom,

as far as i can tell i do see the critical number being 200. When i was able to put 200 decent fighters in the air, no matter how many he sent, his bombers weren't going nowehere...now that those numbers are a far away memory i'm not able to stop his bombers no more thus my ships that prevent his BBs to get closer are every day in a bigger danger...(i've already lost 3 CLs and 3 DDs due to his Netties)...
Unfortunately P40s still die like flies against his Tojos and P-38s aren't doing any better...the only fighter i have which can compare is the Spit...but my reserves of this marvel are getting dry and i don't see any light at the end of the tunnell...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: wpurdom

That's what i've been hoping for...he must have lost 2/3000 pilots by now over karachi...but i cannot see any decrease of his overall performances...

At the end of the turn we count 128 enemy planes shot down, against only 22 of ours in India...but those 22 are priceless while he has tons of everything

Just how bad does he have to do for you to see a decline in performance?

Most of them are bombers or zeros...the exchange ratio for the Tojos is, i bet 2 allied fighters for every Tojo i get...only the spit gets out of this equation...and believe me that i have excellent pilots even in the aircobras...but they're just not good enough against the Tojo