Defender of the Revolution: Q-Ball v Tarhunnas

[pompack]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

ORIGINAL: JAMiAM

A lot of this metagaming would be drastically changed if the game was using random weather. Then, the silliness of speaking of just x more turns of this, and y turns of that would disappear. You'd have to make choices that were strategically, and operationally sound, without knowing exactly what type of weather would come up next turn.

James, my advice in this situation would be exactly the same with random weather. The Red Army needs to rest and rebuild and lay down reserves and defensive lines. 5 million men and 55k artillery isn't going to break the Wehrmacht, and is more likely to be itself broken if caught in the open.

yes, this debate is beginning to sound remarkably like real life, just a month earlier. Remember that the ONLY reason that the Germans had a credible Summer 42 opportunity was severe Russian over-extension that allowed the Germans to pretty much smash the Russian army at Kharkov when the ground dried.

[Encircled]

If he had more men and artillery, then I'd be advising him to get the champagne order in for the victory parade in Berlin.

But he hasn't, so he will have to spend the entertainment budget on defences!

[Fishbed]

Well even with more men, considering Moscow and Leningrad are still in enemy hands, you could expect Comrade Stalin's answer to the idea of bringing the champagne out to be rather cold [;)]

[Q-Ball]

3/19/42:

The Germans continued attacks in several areas. Their attacks caused roughly 32,000 losses for me, and about half that in Germans.

Though he is pushing me back, I don't foresee any breakthroughs; all locations where he has Panzers I am at least 3-deep in units and forts, and I've been rotating units up and back to REFIT. Still, he will finish Snow with a firm bridgehead over the Dnepr, as well as re-taking Kaluga and Kalinin, two of my last takes during the Blizzard.

I am not attacking anymore; a couple last turn produced alot of losses for me, even though they were successful, so I am taking everyone's advice and sitting on my hands.

I am moving troops around to Dig and get some depth going. I am most concerned about the Crimean Front; I'll post more on that later, but this will be a continual problem.

Otherwise, I've spent a bunch of time re-organizing the Red Airforce, mostly swapping Biplanes for Useful Fighters.

My OOB is up to 5.25 mil now.

[Flaviusx]

It's a matter of simple math, Q-ball. If you lost 32k per turn due to German attacks and get 100k a turn in reinforcements, you grow.

If you lose that amount plus lots more from attacks on your side...you won't grow so much, or at all.

Mind you, I'm oversimplifying this. You obviously can't just sit there forever doing nothing, but once you reach a more favorable correlation of forces, then you're in a better position to accept the heavy attrition low odds attacks incur. Right now...the fat's not there. You're burning into meat and bone.

Would like to see a screen of your southern front, actually.

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball
Though he is pushing me back, I don't foresee any breakthroughs; all locations where he has Panzers I am at least 3-deep in units and forts, and I've been rotating units up and back to REFIT.

I would not be complacent...if you look at my AAR, you'll see that I also had a fortified 3-4 hex deep carpet, but Ketza was gradually able to chew through it, and in some places, positively romp through it (although I think Tarhunnas is weaker than Ketza was). You should definitely have some powerful reserves and be ready to commit them quickly.

[Q-Ball]

3/19/42:

Tarhunnas is out of town for a few days, so it's a good time to take stock, and look at German plans for 1942.

INDUSTRY:

There are not a ton of industrial targets left at this point.

VORONEZH still has 3 Arm and 3 HI, but the aircraft factories are moved.
GORKY has 5 Arm, 6 HI, and the T-60s, but that's it.
STALINGRAD has 20 Vehicles, the T-60s, and T-34s.

So, most of this I could move quickly if I need to. Stalingrad would take a couple turns, but he is a long long long way from there. I don't think he'll go for GORKY, that would actually be helpful for me.

There is nothing really closer to the front than these cities, (other than KERCH, which I can't move), so I think Tarhunnas will conclude that 1942 won't be about industry; rather, taking on the Red Army.

GERMAN OBJECTIVES:

The primary German objective in 1942 will be hurting the long-term capability of the Red Army. This will mean killing and ideally capturing Reds, and secondarily, clearing Manpower centers. A final objective will be to create a viable defense line for 1943.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that in the SOUTH, where everybody attacks in 1942, Tarhunnas can reach most of those objectives.

Objective #1 I think will be to push me back in the Crimea. This offers opportunities to surround Reds in the process, particularly by pinning them against the Sea of Azov.

Once that is accomplished, I think he'll attack toward the Donbas/Kharkov, to re-take those objectives and push further East toward unspoiled ground. This will be accompanied by attacks around Orel and Kursk, mostly to clear the flanks and keep up with the Southern Advance.

Per Flavius's request, I am attaching a map of the Southern Front.

[Flaviusx]

Put some diggers behind the Molochna river, Q-ball. Don't overcommit to defending the Dnepr bend as he can easily outflank it. I'm going to assume you have the Crimean chokepoints already fortified, if not, get diggers there as well.

I also think your position in the center is exposed, and you should be looking to dig behind the minor rivers in that region.

Unfortunately, there's going to be gaps on the southern half of your line where no rivers cover things.

I would consider putting some diggers behind the Don as well, perhaps not the entire length of it, but at least from Boguchar up to just southeast of Tula where it peters out.

Don't rely on mass carpets along the whole front, this is wasteful. Take advantage of terrain features and plan fallback lines based on those.

You mentioned uptopic planning a 20 division reserve. That is far too small. (You'll have more than 20 tank corps alone in due course.) I like keeping up to a half dozen armies worth of reserves. These can converge upon the German schwerpunkt when it becomes apparent.

It is ok to allow limited and controllable breakthroughs for the Germans, even desirable to do so, if you can channel them into a killing ground where your reserves can grind them to powder. 76mm showed how this is done in his AAR. But you need big reserves to pull this off. Very few Soviets seem to understand the value and power of deep reserves, he's almost the only guy I've seen actually pull this off. There is a tendency to rely on mindless carpets, and this I consider to be wasteful. Even if it works, it throws away counterattacking opportunities and just encourages a timid German to counterturtle you. You don't want them to turtle. You want them to advance, but at a pace and place of your choosing, so you can smash them in the open. If the German turtles up on you, nothing happens until 1943 and it makes it that much harder for you to drive them back.

Spread the cavalry and tank corps out in the rear areas so that something is available to respond to the Germans in most any place. (Excepting the very far north stretch of the front held by the Finns. That can probably be ignored altogether and held with minor forces.)

[Q-Ball]

3/19/42:

RED ARMY BUILDING:

I am rotating front-line units to REFIT, but I have a number of "Shell" units; these are back of the front, and will remain Shells until I start filling other formations more.

I have disbanded some superfluous Air HQs this turn for replacements.

I plan to build lots of Tank Corps, as soon as April hits.

[Klydon]

I would try to pull out a good number of your guards units to refit and recover and then put them in reserve like Flav mentioned.

I don't know I would go bananas forming tank corps right off the bat. Yes, you need to form some, but they are very expensive to put together and also will drain your armaments and truck pools. On top of that, they really don't have a lot of punch at this point and won't counter attack very well. They are priceless for infiltrating any German encirclement (provided he leaves gaps) to break pockets.

Big thing is to keep a good reserve of points I think. You should probably take stock of how you are on overall counters. You don't have the replacements right now (and won't for a bit) to fill up what you have, so building new counters right now is not a good idea, but you may find yourself wishing you could later. Just remember it takes a bit even after you build them for them to be available and to be worth much.

I also agree with you that Tarhunnas will be looking to kill Russian counters. That will be his top priority for the summer.

[Mehring]

Nothing to add there except that the sooner your tanks corps are created, the sooner their experience will grow to usable levels.

[76mm]

This is what I don't like about having multiple thin lines, there are numerous places where a smart German player will simply slice through your thin front line and pocket a dozen divisions or so (see blue arrows):




While none of the pockets individually is that big of a deal, they add up, and each pocket would probably require you to pull back from the sides of the pocket to reduce the chance of future pockets, thus losing the benefit of all your digging. Granted, this kind of pocket is also possible with a carpet, but I think it is harder, and by sliding units around at the back of the carpet, you can maintain the integrity of your line a bit longer. In any event, however, whether you use multiple lines or a carpet, you should only count on them slowing down a determined German attack, and you have to have some powerful reserves ready to rush in and give them a good crack.

[Mehring]

It depends on what the lines are made of. If the second line is a reserve of well equipped and led divisions/corps, you have the makings of an attritional battle of encirclement and counter encirclement which the Russians are likely to win.

[Q-Ball]

76mm has a good point, though you guys are at a disadvantage, because you aren't actually in the game file.

That configuration will change before good weather; at the moment, there is one turn of Snow, and based on several factors he won't be making big pockets next turn. After that, it's 5 turns of MUD; then, if I read the table correctly, it goes: C, M, C, M, M, C, M, then the summer campaign. 9 turns out of 12 are Mud. I don't think he'll do anything risky during the "Middle" clear turns, because any Panzers I cut-off would likely stay that way.

The line behind the Central Front is a number of unready units that are digging a trench line along several rivers.

I have reserves behind the front, but most of them are on a rail line close to the front, where they can contribute with Shovels, rather than wait far behind the front.

[Ron]

For the German side, one of the key components of the '41 campaign in order to set the stage for a successful '42 summer is preservation of force. This did not happen at all. Not only that, but I am pretty positive the German mobile divisions took a severe morale hit getting smacked around like they did. The scale has definitely tipped in the Russian's favor - any German moves will be very limited.

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: Mehring

It depends on what the lines are made of. If the second line is a reserve of well equipped and led divisions/corps, you have the makings of an attritional battle of encirclement and counter encirclement which the Russians are likely to win.

I am not sure that it is generally feasible to have a second line of "well-equipped and led" armies; in early 1942 such armies can be few and far between and if you have them they should be used as a mobile strategic reserve rather than forming an integral part of your defense.

On the other points, Tarhunnas did get smacked around pretty good, so it will be interesting to see how quickly, or if, he bounces back. On the weather, during my game it sure seemed like there was more snow or clear turns; in any event, I think that if his forces are in decent shape, he could take those mini-pockets in a single turn without much risk.

[ComradeP]

I assume you have Sevastopol and neighbouring hexes up to level 5 forts by now and you're also digging in at the entry point of the actual Kerch Peninsula?

[Flaviusx]

76mm, a too successful carpet leads to German turtling. It's also uneconomical in its use of forces. And boring.

A mini pocket can always be busted open. It's perfectly fine and desirable to have the German be lured deeper into Russia, and thus counterattacked. If you have the reserves, that is. The deeper lines in the rear, based on terrain features, means the breakthrough isn't getting far, and gives you a solid base to counterattack from.

[76mm]

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
76mm, a too successful carpet leads to German turtling. It's also uneconomical in its use of forces. And boring.

Well, no real arguments there, I just prefer it to losing...

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
A mini pocket can always be busted open. It's perfectly fine and desirable to have the German be lured deeper into Russia, and thus counterattacked. If you have the reserves, that is. The deeper lines in the rear, based on terrain features, means the breakthrough isn't getting far, and gives you a solid base to counterattack from.

Not sure if I agree with this, for a couple of reasons. First, probably won't have troops strong enough to break a pocket along your entire front, and your powerful strategic reserves probably won't be able to reach the mini-pocket within the one turn you have to rescue them. While I agree it is desirable (within reason) to lure the Germans deeper into Russia, these secondary lines are only a few hexes back and therefore are not likely to cause the Germans to overextend themselves. Indeed they are more likely to serve as a platform for additional pocket-forming by the Germans. Finally, by presenting the Germans with many opportunities for mini-pockets, you are really removing their incentive to try anything risky and ambitious, because they can just gobble up the Red Army piecemeal without putting themselves at much risk.

I don't claim to have vast experience with this game, and don't claim that a carpet is the only way to defend. It's just that for the reasons outlined above, I can't convince myself that multiple thin lines is a very good alternative.

Also, these comments apply specifically to the first half of 1942; by the late summer the correlation of forces has probably shifted enough to allow the use of multiple lines, because by then your second line is more likely to be able to open a mini-pocket.

[Sabre21]

Based on how I play, multiple thin lines is the best option for the Soviets. As 76 mentions, the Soviets can't be strong everywhere, but then neither can the Germans. A Soviet player must keep track of where the German armor is and position forces accordingly. Infantry by themselves, while they can punch a hole in even the strongest of defenses, can't exploit it. Only the mobile units can create an effective large-scale envelopment. You might be able to trap a couple units here and there with only infantry, but that won't really accomplish much. The amount of time and casualties taken to accomplish this is actually in the Soviet favor.
 
Using a carpet along the entire length of the front is wasteful in units and pretty much leads itself to a major disaster, either in the way of a major German breakthru or with a much better German defense. There are always weak areas in a defense and a good German player will identify them.
 
This is not to say there isn't a place for using a carpet, I use it myself at times, but it is only a small part of the overall strategies I use.