Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

I came very close to clicking the button to send the FT TF into Moulmein tonight as I'm nearly positive it's vacant and that landing there will cause much consternation in the enemy camp.  What swayed my ultimate decision not to is to give it one more day, not only to orchestrate a reliable recon mission, but to allow the slower troop transports another day to draw closer.  As soon as the Allied take Moulmein (airfield level four), I would transport base force personel in along with fighters.  This would allow the Allies to unload 27th Div. and the other ground units under CAP.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I agree that, with his attention which now seems finally focused in the DEI, it's the PERFECT time to attack in the Gilberts!...do you have any CV left in CENTPAC or they're all in I.O.? Cause i think a couple of Netties daitais could be waiting for you at Wotje and without any air cover they could hurt you quite a bit...

No Allied carriers in the Pacific right now. The Allies will do a bit of sniffing around, but if things are as I suspect in the Gilberts, I can almost guarantee you that the Allied invasion will succeed even if there are Netties at Wotje. The Allies can usually slip up on a remote base and get suprisingly close before the enemy alarm's sound. I don't think Steve has any suspicions about the Gilberts, so I doubt he'll be on guard. Of course, enemy subs or patrols could change the equation between now and D-Day. Also, the Allies will use some float aircraft for recon a day or two prior to D-Day. If, against all odds, Tarawa is strongly garrisoned, I would scrub the mission. But with the equivalent of two divisions available, the Allies will be armed to the teeth.

Its a pity CheZ no longer updates his AAR, would be interesting to know how he was going to try and pull this game round......

I wish so too.

[Canoerebel]

5/10/42
 
Things are getting very, very intersting.  Alot could happen over the next few turns, and a few are guaranteed to happen.
 
DEI:  Once again there is alot of Japanese shipping and activity around eastern Java.  No sign of carriers, but there's a large combat TF (reported 2 CS, 4 CA, 4 DD) on a SW heading nearing Denpassar.  Also, three TBs that appear to be scouts neared Tjilitjap on the south coast.  The Allied carrierers and three BB TFs are very close - just south of Christmas Island.  If the enemy comes, the Allies will be there to meet them.
 
Bay of Bengal:  Recon reports Moulmein vacant (with 7/8 detection, the report is reliable).  The fast transport TF goes in tonight.  The Allies have loaded up airfields with recon squadrons to light up the area tomorrow - Bangkok, Moulmein, Meikteila, Pegu, and a base south of Tavoy will be looked at.  This ought to get Steve's full attention.  The Allied troop transports are nearing the north cape of Great Andaman Island, so they could reach Moulmein in as little as three days (maybe two).  Recon reports just four units at Rangoon, where there were six two days ago.  I think Steve sent the others out as reinforcements - but he guessed wrong.  He sent them NW towards Mandalay, methinks, rather than SE to Moulmein.  I think this is going to be fun.
 
China:  Allied stacks are moving to the hex north of Loyang and to the hex northeast of Changsha.  These will be the next possible actions.
 
NoPac:  Lots of enemy ativity, but no big moves yet.
 
CenPac:  All Allied troop transport TFs are at sea.  Transports are also prepositioned at two ports east of Pearl to handle a Marine RCT and a tank battalion 100% prepped for Tarawa.  I'm guessing D-Day could take place in about a month, allowing for the transports to unload at Pearl, combat load, and make for the beaches.
 
SoPac:  Several Allied TFs drawing very close to Pago Pago wihdrew under threat from an unidentified source and direction.  I don't know what's up, because Allied patrols from nearby Savaii don't show any ships in the area (but you know how reliable patrols are).  I'm backing my ships off a little until the nature of the threat is pinned down.  It's got to be carriers or combat ships.

[JohnDillworth]

LOL...i regularly do that...usually with coffea and ash... i tend to write with a mug of coffea in my left hand and a sigarette between my left-hand fingers... when it happens to put down under the keyboard on the desk magically appear 4 or 5 little hills of ash

I was a project manager on a big 911 call center job a couple of years back. We ordered a ton of spare keyboards because the fire department dispatchers are always eating and drinking at their stations. Average life of a keyboard is about 6 months because of all the stuff they spill in them. They're not supposed to eat at their stations but you try telling them that.

[ny59giants]

Do you have a big enough AF that can hold B-17s and still be able to reach Bangkok?? It would be a good target to hit after your landing.

[Canoerebel]

5/11/42
 
Dueling fast transport invasions with a heck of alot of tension building....

Moulmein:  The Allied FT convoys lands a U.S. Army battalion at this vacant base.  The battalion is weak, but the base will fall unless Steve air transports in reinforcements.  If the base falls, the Allies will move fighters in and then land the major reinforcements.  Since the base will fall first, though, Steve won't really know what the reinforcements are.  I don't think Rangoon has the supply to handle major enemy air ops.  Bangkok is a concern, but Steve may have a high priority need for aircraft down south.

Java:  A large group of ships escorts a landing, probably fast transport in part, at Loemadjang on the eastern coast of Java.  This includes 4th Div., which SigInt reported at Bataan just a few days ago.  The Allied carriers are only about 15 hexes to the south.  So, do I keep them hidden to respond to what seems to be a developing situation in the southern South China Sea (see below), or do I reveal them to take a whack at what looks like a pretty strong combat TF escort at Loemadjang?  I'm leaning towards the latter, but I'm still mulling it over.

South China Sea:  A major concentration of enemy carriers in multiple TFs suddenly "bloom" (four TF icons in a single hex) north of Singapore about eight hexes.  This major concentration has to be protecting troop transports of some kind.  He doesn't need carrier CAP to get ships to Singapore, so this has some other purpose - could be an invasion of Sumatra, western Java, or possibly even a push into the Bay of Bengal.  As you can imagine, I'll carefully watch where this group goes.

SoPac:  My ships are still backing off Pago Pago despite no clearly identified threat.  I've reissued orders to "direct" and "absolute," with a two-CA combat TF to go into Pago Pago tonight to provide protection.  The Allies are keeping track of a bright red TF icon moving east from the vicinity of Luganville:  possibly more enemy troops coming to PP.  My reinforcements are all now one or two days out.  I very much want to land them and bug out ASAP, but I'm not sure the computer will allow me to do so.

CenPac:  Tarawa airfield just went to level two, which is a disappointing development.  I don't mind going up against an isolated level two airfield, but I'll have to recon the base thoroughly prior to D-Day to make sure an enemy divisions isn't waiting on the shores.

Summary:  Where everything felt right yesterday, like a wonderfully coordinated plan coming together, today is filled with forebodings and ominous developments.

[Nemo121]

Back in the day Subutai would always take up position on a hill overlooking the battlefield with his signallers ( flags ) with his reserve held in close proximity to his position - often out of sight of the battlefield ( a full defilade position ). He would issue orders to counter enemy movements from that position. He was a masterful commander who used feigned retreats and trap-like escape routes for encircled enemies to win battles at far less cost than would otherwise have occured. His conduct of the campaign against Poland and Hungary resulting in the destruction of both national armies within a day of eachother is textbook ---- and Britain would have done a lot better in the desert vs Rommel if they'd read as much about Subutai as he obviously had.

Anyways his KEY tactical decision was always when to commit his main reserve. He had a simple rule, to commit his reserve after the enemy committed theirs. It is a simple rule but, throughout history, if you do nothing else but look at which side committed their reserve first you'll have a very high success rate in picking which side won. The side which commits the reserve first tends to lose.


It is unfortunate that you committed to Moulmein just prior to the appearance of what seems to be a major enemy invasion force. That falls under the "Sh*t happens" situation. Now, however, you have the option of committing your CVs but you need to be careful to either:
1. commit your CVs only to a quick strike vs uncapped amphibious TFs. - This strike won't use up your CVs' combat capability.

2. or only commit your CVs to a battle which will use up their combat power AFTER you are sure the enemy is fully committed.


If you are SURE you can get in and out without tangling with his CVs I'd be in favour of hitting the landing in Java but you have to be really, really sure to preserve your combat power if you do that.... I'd suggest multiple sweeps by land-based air before the CV air comes into play in order to wear down the CAP and maximally preserve your CV strike groups for, later, decisive action vs the main enemy landing. I'd avoid tangling with the enemy CVs at pretty much all costs though.... There's simply no need for your CVs to tangle with his CVs, you need to kill his ability to engineer a multi-division amphibious landing, not his CVs.

[princep01]

or perhaps stage the CV air into the larger Java AFs and strike the TF headed for Java from land bases with really good pilots/planes. The CV munitions are thusly conserved and you get a crack (or two) at the enemy with a decisive weapon. The actual CVs can maintain position at a safe distance and the planes returned to their decks after the enemy TF is mauled if desired. The landing at Java may be a feint, but it appears to be a substantial one. The loss of the TF would be painful to the already bloodied IJN.

Now, I ask myself....princep, is this commiting the reserve to quickly? Are you chasing poisoned pawns? Would Subutai, frown and wave his index finger at me menacingly? I pondered....and decided, no, the reserve would be committed only in so far as it would be positioned to both destroy the Java TF, while remaining a viable reserve to take on the on coming "other" TF with the massed CVs if I wished.

As to the Moulein operation, I see little to argue against what you are doing. It is not an operation that is going to seriously hurt your cause even it it results in disaster to the unit(s) currently commited to it. It is one of those spoiling attacks that serves to either upset the already confused mind set of the enemy (say causing him to weaken an effort at Palembang by force dispersion) or which serves as a toe hold to be expanded into something larger should the enemy concentrate elsewhere. I would continue to purse it and see what reaction it draws from your opponent. Frankly, this operation has the potential to trap a significant numer of LCUs and liberate all of Burma if it can be expanded without major intervention from the LYBs. I suspect the units placed at Moulein will soon be facing a stampede of lowing, jostling, wild-eyed LYBs running for their lives.

Bill Halsey would clap you (hard) on the back and have some ribald comment for you and the press. Spruance would gaze at you with a studious look, a wry smile on his countenance and offer a hand shake. Cpt Nemo might even surface long enough to send a congratulatory message:).

[vettim89]

I suggest you harken back to your time playing John3 in Forlorn Hopes. As a reader of both AAR's, I can tell you there were times when both of you had concerns about threats that were not real. Second I would add that there were times when both of you ignored threats that were real. I say that only to point out that you need to consider what Steve is thinking right now. You say that Moulmein seemed like a good idea until yesterdays developments; consider Steve is probably thinking he had everything in place for the big push and now he too is facing an unexpected threat.

My thinking is this: your opponent is obviously about to start a major op. He likley has positioned as much as possible to support that move. Now is exactly the time to strike elsewhere. It will either force him to reposition units he needs for his current operation or cause him to accept that he can do nothing about your present counterattacks. He may be forced to accept set backs at PP and/or Moulmein thinking he can deal with those after the present operation is concluded. If you act decisively in the PP and Moulmein ops (especially Moulmein), you may be able to permanently affect the game in those areas. Go bold or go home.

As to your carriers, is your desire for them to engage the IJN CV fleet? If not, then send them east to interfere with the Java landing. Why not let his CVTF impale themselves against your LBA on Sumatra first? Then if they are weakened, you can move in. In fact, I think hitting the Java landing is exactly what you should do along with hitting PP and going all in at Moulmein. Put Steve's head on a swivel: not knowing where the next strike will come from

[madflava13]

Let him impale his CVs on your air units on Sumatra, then move your CVs in for the kill of KB once their CAP is depleted. Otherwise, stay mobile and stealthy.

[Canoerebel]

The map has become very ocmplicated with alot of wheels in motion. I like the Allied position, but I'm not certain I made the rights calls.

1. I might have been better off stripping the Allied carriers of air to base the squadroms on Java. I decided not to do so because the bases are short of supply. I didn't want to end up with a bunch of disabled aircraft at this moment, with enemy CVs in view.

2. I debated the wisdom of committing my carriers against this Java invasion force. I decided to do so because the Allied carrers can still retire to the west if needed (or re-base squadrons to Sumatra if needed). This was a real iffy judgment call, but I elected to strike at what seems like a powerful and exposed spearhead.

3. The Moulmein invasion, if successful, is fairly low risk (as Princep points out) but offers a high reward - threatening Japan's position in Burma just as Steve is trying to focus on the DEI. The Japanese ar3e weak, dispersed, and low on supply in Burma, so there is a possibility that the Allies can conquer the country, which would certainly be a blow to Japan. THe Allies haven't committed their major amphibious troops yet, so there is still the opportunity to scrub the oepration for another day or two if things don't look right.

4. The Allies may or may not commit their carriers to the defense of Sumatra when the enemy invasion comes. I will do so if it permits me to stand off at a good distance and strike. I won't do so if it's advantageous to base the aircraft on land.

5. Vettim is right - Steve will suddenly have multiple new threats right while he's trying to handle a major operation of his own. We have the situation on Sumatra, the situations in China, and the situation in the Kuriles. Now, he's about to face a new situation in Burma and (hopefully) a new equation at Pago Pago. Finally, he'll face a situation in the Gilberts in a month or less. That's alot of crises to face right when he's trying to manage his own major crisis.

[Nemo121]

Partial committment of the reserve is the worst of both worlds....

If you commit part of the main reserve you will find that:
a) you are committing it to a small-time situation ( if the situation were serious it would warrant the entire reserve ).

b) you are piecemealing out your reserve such that when it comes time for the decisive committment you've committed a large minority ( or even a majority ) of the reserve to strategically non-decisive operations and no longer have sufficient mass to achieve the outcome required in the strategically decisive operation.

I'm not sure the advice here is the best way to go about it. IMO. I don't think it'll make a difference as Steve is so rattled and so far behind the OODA cycle but, IMO, Canoerebel should no longer be focussed on beating Steve, he should be focussed on using the rest of this game to practice the phasing of operations, maskirovka and suchlike in preparation for his next round of games - for which he should, IMO, really sift the applicants in order to ensure a stringent test which pushed him to improve further.

So, don't worry about defeating Steve now. That's already done and has been done for several months ( and I've said as much in this AAR about 3 game months ago ). Focus on playing as close to the perfect game as possible. Right now the single largest question you face is whether or not to commit the reserve and under what circumstances you'll commit it. The reserve should never be expended unless it will be strategically decisive. This allows you to strike with the reserve when it won't be expended ( IOW when it won't take many losses ) in order to kill isolated enemy units but still makes you maintain the discipline not to waste its combat power unless it is strategically decisive.

lastly, what is the narrative you are creating by hitting those amphibious ships and their escorts? Have you considered the narrative you are creating? Are you seeking to shape that narrative?


Don't beat yourself up re: the right calls. It seems you've done pretty well up until now. I am just a bit puzzled regarding the framework within which you view your CV force and whether or not you have a predetermined framework governing their committment to battle or are you just taking opportunities as they present themselves - it will probably work fine in this game but I can think of 6 to 10 players on this forum who would use that small amount of laxity to ambush your CVs by presenting opportunities which would prove fatal to you should you grasp them.... So I amn't bothered by the committment in this game but by the theoretical framework underlying it ( and/or its absence ).

[Canoerebel]

I'm still worried about defeating Steve.  There are still scenarios in which he could clobber the Allies bad enough to set them back a long time.  I agree that it's unlikely, but it isn't impossible.  Sumatra is the key.

I don't have a predetermined trigger for committing my carriers, though a strong argument (that I waged in my own mind) can be made that this wasn't the right time and place.  I finally chose to do so for a mutlitude of complicated interacting reasons including:  (1) the KB being in the South China Sea, far away and thus not able to ambush; (2) the invasion of Java suggests that Steve is going to attend to that island first and that a major invasion of Palembang, Oosthaven, or Benkolen is not going to happen short term; (3) another whacking of a big Japanese force will again make Steve think long and hard about his options, further slowing him down; (4) he's bleeding troop transports which will make complicate his ability to engage in the massive kind of invasion that would succeed against one of those three bases; (5) the Allied carrier-based squadrons can immediately relocate to the well-supplied major Allied airfields at Benkolen, Oosthaven, and Palembang.

To my way of thinking, the Allies are throwing punches against a staggering enemy, keeping him off balance and increasing the likelihood that he will make mistakes and ultimately fall victim to a TKO.  I guess if I have a narrative, that would be it.

One thing I forgot to mention earlier - it has occurred to me that Steve might try an amphibious assault against Djambi using xAKL - assuming those ships can go up small rivers, which I believe they can.  Djambi is a small base with big airfeild potential just two or three hexes west of Palembang.  When I open the next turn file in a few minutes I'll anxiously look for any signs that such a move might be imminent.  I have 100 AV at Djambi behind three forts, but she might use more -say 200 or so AV.

I'm also toying with the idea of reinforcing western Java a bit (Vettim will like that) to force Steve to commit more troops to Java.  Not sure about that - I'd say it's unlikely since the Allies don't have the PP to spend and since they have so many other operations ongoing.  I can't do everything that I'd like to do - and which would undoubtedly be effective. 

Finally, you'll note I didn't commit my carriers until I knew the precise location of the KB.  So I don't think the Allied actions here are some kind of sign that I might be tricked into an ambush. 

[Canoerebel]

5/12/42
 
So very much going on.  The odds are the next month will tell the tale of the war.  The opening round today was hot, with the Allies scoring some licks but not emerging unscathed.  Tomorrow promises more.
 
Java:  The Allied carriers closed to within six hexes of Loembajang, which was fine for SBD range, but not for Allied fighters.  So my divebombers and a few torpedo aircraft went in mostly unescorted and got chewed up pretty badly.  On the day the Allies lost about 70 SBDs and a few dozen other assorted makes and models.  In return, the Allies sank or badly damaged six xAP, four AMC, one LSD, one APD, one xAK, and one E.  Also, CA Mogami took a 500 pounder that somehow pentrated and resulted in a "critical hit" message.  By my count, the Japanese lost 66 infantry squads, 125 non-combat, and 11 engineer.  I hope the AMCs hurt if nothing else does.  The Japanese took Loembajang, their first base on Java.
 
Carriers:  The KB is located just north of Singkawang/Kuching - meaning it moved due east last turn.  I'm not sure what its doing there or where its going, though unti proven wrong I will assume a major invasion of eastern Sumatra or western Java might be imminent.  The Allied carrires will steam west, passing just south of Christmas Island.  Most of the depleted SBD squadrons relocated to Oosthaven and replaced all missing bombers.  Mission sorties range from 75% to 90%.  So, the Allied carriers scored a lick, but the argument that it wasn't worth it might prevail (a nod to Nemo).
 
Bay of Bengal:  The U.S. Army battalion took Moulmein.  To my surprise, the airfield is shut down due to partisan damage (Steve didn't have the base garrisoned).  I didn't factor that into my equation!  No enemy air sortied and I think Steve has basing and supply problems, so I'm going ahead with the reinforcement landings.  I've based a Hurricane squadron there hoping it might be able to fly some missions.  Again, my moves here could be called into question.
 
China:  The Chinese will make three attacks tomorrow:  The first near Loyang should blow through two IJ units of unkown strength; the second near Changsha should demolish four IJ units that will include a few divisions; the third across a river into a town east of Kukong, garrisoned by four units, but probably not enough to hold off a 4,000-AV army.
 
NoPac:  Quiet at the moment.
 
SoPac:  The "absolute" orders issued to my transports seemed to work - three small TFs will arrive tonight, with three more in two days.  These are bringing engineers, infantry, and tanks.  The port is protected by a two-CA TF.  Enemy ships, probably carrying reinforcements, are on the way, but I think at least four days out.  In one more day the Allies will have a much stronger defense on Pago Pago.  I think this is an important contest - not to the Allies, but for Japan.  A repulse here after expending so much time and effort would be a seriouos blow.
 
Assessment:  While the Allied carrier operation was costly, I think it was successful and will have measurable long-term benefits.  I'm more concerned about the decision to reinforce Moulmein "naked."  That's the first thing I'll look at when I get the next turn back.  But it's pretty exciting to have such hot action going on all over the map, with the Allies controlling the tempo in most.

[Cribtop]

Bottom line is you replaced the lost SBDs. Can you replace the pilots? Have you thought about how many more times can you replace both?

Really fun to see things heating up so much!

[JeffroK]

You can replace both SBD & pilots, can Steve replace those lost ships.


I second what Vettim said!!

[Blackhorse]

One thing I forgot to mention earlier - it has occurred to me that Steve might try an amphibious assault against Djambi using xAKL - assuming those ships can go up small rivers, which I believe they can.

They cannot.

[Canoerebel]

5/13/42
 
Carriers in the DEI:  Most, but not all, of the IJA carrier TFs are nearing Ketapang, a vacant base on Borneo's south coast.  The other major carrier TF is west of Kuching.  The Allied carriers are well south of Java and may swing wide around Cocos Island on a generally west heading.  I think, but I'm not absolutely positive, that Steve may be landing at Ketapang under massive cover (in which case he's choosing security but I'm gaining time).  Alternatively, he's going to make a big landing on Java's north coast.  Either of those suits me.  I don't think he's coming for Oosthaven, though that's a small possibility.  I don't think there's any way he would send his carriers through the Sunda Straits, but just on the merest chance I'm routing my carriers a bit south to remain safe.

Sumatra:  Blackhorse, is see that you're right, thanks.  Palembang is now a level seven airfield with forts at 5.49 and increasing more rapidly now that the airfield is maxed out.  Oosthaven will go to level nine airfield in about 45 days - that will be a major development as then there won't be any basing limits.  The big American CD unit begins unloading at Oosthaven tonight.  There's danger, here, due to the proxomity of enemy capital ships.  Alot of IJ subs are operating in the area, with mixed results (some ships torpedoed, some subs sunk).  Steve has also mined Oosthaven.  He's doing his best to attend to this key port, but talk about closing the barn door after the horses have left....

Burma:  Things went much better than I could have hoped for.  Weak enemy air attacks didn't score any hits.  The big Allied transport TFs arrived and begin unloading tonight.  I'm guessing the Allies will have 500 AV ashore tomorrow. Also, the US Army battalion held against a Japanese para-assault.  I like the fact that Steve was concerned enough to try that and failed.  He'll probably try again tomorrow.  The only downside is that he'll know just how much he's facing in this sector.

China:  Three major Chinese attacks succeed - ripping the already depleted 104th Division, demolishing a full-strength IJA regiment, and driving back with moderate losses to fresh IJA brigades.  On the day, the Japanese lost at least 500 squads.

NoPac:  Quiet.  Maryland and Idaho reached the yards at Seattle.  One needs 45 days, the other 75, to repair damage suffered near Paramushiro. The only remaining USN capital ships in NoPac are BB Tennessee and CA Houston.

CenPac:  The Tarawa invasion troops are midway between San Diego and Pearl Harbor.  D-Day in about 21 to 25 days.

SoPac:  Finally...at long, long last...those troop transports actually went into port at Pago Pago and began unloading.  The Allied AV increased from 137 to 183.  The Allies need one more day, maybe two, for this operation to be a total success.  (I also stood down artillery bombardments, so Steve may not be aware that reinforcements have arrived. I believe he has reinforcements on the way, so upon arrival they could get a rude shock). 

[Canoerebel]

Here's the situation in the DEI.

The Allies have made good on SBDs, but replacing pilots is a bit of a challenge. Three of the four squadrons are in good shape, but I'm going to have to scrape a bit to fill out the fourth, which is currently at half strength.

[Canoerebel]

The developing situation in Burma.