The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[crsutton]

I don't think he will be able to take Lunga back. But if he does attempt it, it is as good of a place as any to fight him. Get as much supply as you can to Lunga-as much as it will hold. He might be able to cut you off for a good while.

[CaptBeefheart]

Could you give us an idea of your base levels in the Solomons? Say include the airfield and port sizes, fort levels, supplies, aircraft, engineers/vehicles and AVs (or break down the combat units)?

Also, how is your Port Moresby plan coming along? Has he reinforced that like he has the upper Solomons? It might be good to strike before he does.

Thanks,
CC

[Canoerebel]

I think this thinking is wrong, wrong, WRONG! [:D] [:'(]

The Solomons aren't very important. It's nice that you have a strong network of bases there. It's even better that rader is sending in lots of reinforcements.

But he's the strategic winner if a big meeting engagement develops in the strategically irrelevant Solomon Islands. Why would you pin down your most important offensive assets (carriers) in a largely irrelevant region for months? Rader isn't going to risk his carriers unless the odds favor him, so you may up steaming around looking for chances for months with nothing to show for it.

You sure want to keep him focused there, but mainly by using smoke, mirrors, and some escort carriers. Meanwhile, you need to figure out where you really need your carriers in a month or six weeks and get them moving. And if you don't know where you really need them....well, get working on it.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Could you give us an idea of your base levels in the Solomons? Say include the airfield and port sizes, fort levels, supplies, aircraft, engineers/vehicles and AVs (or break down the combat units)?

Also, how is your Port Moresby plan coming along? Has he reinforced that like he has the upper Solomons? It might be good to strike before he does.

Thanks,
CC

Lunga is a port level 3 and AF level 6 with 3 forts. 120,000 supplies, 1300 AVs, 270 engineers and 350 aviation support.
Tulagi is a port level 3 a AF level 2 with 3 forts. 10,000 supplies, 200 AVs
Tessafaronga is a port level 1 and AF level 3 with 3 forts, 3,000 supplies and 300 AVs

The idea is to bring Lunga to 1600 AVs within the next week and to bring at least 50,000 supplies in the next 6/7 days (it all depends on the presence of the KB).

However at Ndani i have the equivalent of 2 more divisions that can be brought by air to the theatre if needed.

Every base in the Solomons has at least one marine CD unit and quite a lot of artillery and flak. Lunga also has 3 Tank BNs and 1 Tank Destroyer, along with a Corp HQ and 3 pieces of artillery. With forts rising fast it will surely be a tough nut to crack...

I'm sure he has 3 Divisions prepping for Lunga. The 38th, the 4th and the 4th Guards, something like 1500 AVs....i'm considering to bring one more marine division to Lunga...just to be sure.

CR: My CVs are now needed there. If he's going to counterattack as it seems we're gonna need their presence... I don't have yet the strenght to invade en masse anywhere with the KB in the pacific...but, staying on the defensive, i think i might have the chance to hurt him and to finally start to attrit his navy.
At the moment i don't see any other place where my CVs could be used...but mind you: i don't wanna make anything stupid or risky with them...i'll keep them as a deterrent and will use them only behind my lines and sorrounded by friendly bases.

The PM plan is on hold at the moment cause i'm still gathering resources[:(]...fuel keeps on being a problem...my ships suck a huge amount of it and it's always difficult to have it in sufficient numbers in the front lines...


Nov 22, 23 1942

The "sub mine war" has defenetly started. We mined Goa with subs and we got a DD[8D], while he mined Russell Island and got an xAk on mine...
Palembang, Balikapan, Colombo, Singapore and Calcutta have all been mined in the last weeks...results are poor by now but at least i'm forcing him to deploy more resources to look at this silent threat.

The KB moved back again towards Truk...i'm sure it will be back soon...it's now clear to me that he's doing his best in order to stop me reinforcing this theatre...i'll lose some ships, that's for sure, but i have enough transports to spare and to sacrifice[:)].

At Karachi a brutal air battle occurred. 600 fighters (A6M3a and Tojos) swept the base and obtained a 1,5-2 kill ratio...while we bombed Hadebadab closing the strip for good.

At Multan it seems that something is finally on the move. a little arrow pointing west is now visible...what does this mean?

I think Rader isn't retreating. He just abbandoned the idea of taking Karachi and has redeployed some divisions back to the pacific, but leaving strong forces in India.

[Alpha77]

I wonder why the facination with Guadalcanal area so often in this game ?

Well maybe because it was historic ?

If the Allied have this area ok, but as JAP I would not risk much there to get it back insteat focus on the
defensive of the Rabaul area (incl. Shortlands etc.). PM + Rabaul are more important imo. Munda+Tulagi are nice to have but not essentiel. Also for a Jap these places can not interdict anything (Betty range) while from Shortlands/Rabaul the Betty is able to interdict the searoute to PM. I would feint however an attack on GD as Jap, but in reality strike a more important place. Also I predicted before (see my older posts) that Rader is not trying to get the rest of India, which is also an ok move cause it is not that important anymore - as he has reached quite much there already. Some ppl. wrote that this would be an example how to NOT conquer India. I disagree, the Jap has already done a good job there (only with to much air losses). I would focus more on shutting down supply routes to Australia if my CVs are still intact. But first I need to lure the Allied CV force in a kind of trap and sink or disable 2-3 of them, so I had more free hand. The GD area is not the right place for this however, at least with the bases there in Allied hands.

[GreyJoy]

Well, i think i wasn't fixed on the Solomons ...they weren't in my plans...untill i discovered that they were empty and tried to gain some important ground for free.

However now that i have them i can appreciate the importance of having them. With the Solomons you can put a serious threat on Rabaul and force Japan to committ there...also, if well developed, they can rapresent a good starting base for future naval operations.

For what concerns India, you're defenetly right. Rader has conquered the 90% of it, with all the HI centers and oil production...and that also means that he has slowed down indefenetly the Allied advance in Burma...however, if he had pushed a little bit faster during the early summer he could have gotten the golden goose...Karachi...thus pushing once for all out of the war the Brits....Thank God he didn't make it!

If the counter invasion of Lunga is a feint...i don't see where else he could strike...Suva is well defended with 9 forts, Lungaville has 800 AVs with 7 forts, Ndani has 600 AVs, Noumea has plenty of forces too...and, btw, he cannot think of invading a base behind the Solomons line...his communication lines will be depending on the KB...and with my CVs around that won't be possibile imho.

No, i think it's Lunga the target...he's surely committing a large force for this object and i must be prepared to face a great enemy army....Lord it's going to be fun!!!![:D][:D][:D]

[Smeulders]

Why redirect all of these forces to Lunga ? You've got forts, jungle terrain (x2 defence) and already 1200 AV. He'll need months to get enough prep for the invasion and even then he'll have to scrape every free transport in his empire to launch a multi-divisional invasion (He'll need 5 or 6). It'll already take the greater part of his remaining offensive power to take Lunga without you committing any of your reserves.

It's the end of 42' time for you to start thinking about what you can do to him instead of worrying what he might do to you. Even if he retakes Lunga, what's the problem ? He lost a couple of months recapturing a non-vital objective while you can start making headway somewhere else.

[GreyJoy]

Now that you make me notice....

i've always seen "fragments" of units prepped for Lunga or Tulagi...and fragments of units moving back to Guam or to Singapore...

I have to check on my reports but i'm pretty sure i've seen twice the "4/4th Guards Division" and twice the "2/38th Division" message...

Could it be that those units are still in India and he only embarked fragments of those units in small xAKs and then giving only to the fragment the order to prep for something!?!??!...

Oh Good Lord...he's driving me fool[:o]

So Lunga may not be his target...those units could be ready to strike elsewhere...or they could still be in India prepping for Karachi...

Where could they go!?...Damn'it Rader is always lots of steps in front of me...[:@]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Smeulders

Why redirect all of these forces to Lunga ? You've got forts, jungle terrain (x2 defence) and already 1200 AV. He'll need months to get enough prep for the invasion and even then he'll have to scrape every free transport in his empire to launch a multi-divisional invasion (He'll need 5 or 6). It'll already take the greater part of his remaining offensive power to take Lunga without you committing any of your reserves.

It's the end of 42' time for you to start thinking about what you can do to him instead of worrying what he might do to you. Even if he retakes Lunga, what's the problem ? He lost a couple of months recapturing a non-vital objective while you can start making headway somewhere else.

Actually the problem is exactly that one...what can i do to him?

From my analysis there isn't any other place where i can advance and hope to hurt his perimeter (without risking much obviously)...With the KB around i cannot hope to amphib land anyhwere outside the range of my LB air force.

So the options are only Solomons, NG or Southern DEI. And Rader, which is a damned good player, has already heavily fortified all these places (in the souther DEI every single AF is built up at its max!!).
I don't like to idea of advancing like a bull against a well defended area but the Solomons at the moment offer me a good starting point...and i have no other places so close to his perimeter...

[Smeulders]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: Smeulders

Why redirect all of these forces to Lunga ? You've got forts, jungle terrain (x2 defence) and already 1200 AV. He'll need months to get enough prep for the invasion and even then he'll have to scrape every free transport in his empire to launch a multi-divisional invasion (He'll need 5 or 6). It'll already take the greater part of his remaining offensive power to take Lunga without you committing any of your reserves.

It's the end of 42' time for you to start thinking about what you can do to him instead of worrying what he might do to you. Even if he retakes Lunga, what's the problem ? He lost a couple of months recapturing a non-vital objective while you can start making headway somewhere else.

Actually the problem is exactly that one...what can i do to him?

From my analysis there isn't any other place where i can advance and hope to hurt his perimeter (without risking much obviously)...With the KB around i cannot hope to amphib land anyhwere outside the range of my LB air force.

So the options are only Solomons, NG or Southern DEI. And Rader, which is a damned good player, has already heavily fortified all these places (in the souther DEI every single AF is built up at its max!!).
I don't like to idea of advancing like a bull against a well defended area but the Solomons at the moment offer me a good starting point...and i have no other places so close to his perimeter...

Do you think or known that those places are heavily fortified ? Japanese engineering capability is very limited and he used a lot of it in India. He also focused on building airfields, leaving less to build forts. Forts are also only useful if he has the troops to man them. You've overestimated your opponent before, don't get pinned down because you think he has an 'heavily fortified' line.

Look at your own position, you've got 1200 AV at Lunga and you're still worried about it. How many bases in the line from the Southern DEI to Munda do you think he has that have over 1000 AV or 500 AV even ?

You should also be looking at other places, no LBA doesn't mean you can't invade, you've still got carriers. Raids like the one at Lunga give you a very good position. You've got a fix on KB and you know they'll likely to retreat to Truk to replenish. This gives you some freedom for quick actions in the Gillberts and Southern Marshalls. If you're limiting yourself to nothing but a defensive battle of attrition in the Solomons until the Essex carriers come online you're in for a very long war.

[Alpha77]

Grey Joy: I did not say Rader is IS feinting here, I just said that IF I WOULD BE THE JAP player I would do it.....this does not mean he does this [;)] Maybe he is really coming to this place who knows.

Also I may be a noob in this regard (I haven´t played the JAP in grand campaign!), and I was thinking of how the can the JAP do the worst damage to the Allies ? Maybe even reach a stalemate in 45 ? The Jap cannot win (?) but he can get a draw ! But a draw would be a win for the Japanese [;)]

IMO Karachi is quite worthless (I mean the city), what is worth there are all the troops that sit there. This would be worthwhile to destroy them which probably means the BRIT is out of the war for quite some time. But if all the troops are fixed in place it may be *almost* as good as they would be gone....

The pearl of the great price for the Jap is definatly Australia imho IF he has India already (or 95% of it). 2nd are the Allied CVs (preferably the US ones, the British ones get only a better air capacity with the update around April 43. But if the JAp gets them before this date, fine.

[GreyJoy]

Oz? Well i don't think he could seriorusly be thinking of conquering Oz right now...he could maybe land in the area around Perth but he cannot hope to go any further...remember that he needs to keep a decent force in India if he doesn't want me to get out of my Karachi-cage...

My CVs are for sure an objective...and my aim isn't to fight on the defensive...consider that i already have an ongoing plan to start an offensive in India by june 43...

Ok...however i need to think about the overall strategic situation right now...

Thanks for the inputs guys! as always[&o]

[Canoerebel]

To clarify, GJ, you've done a good job in the Solomons.  You've built up a network of bases that have drawn rader's full attention (thus serving as a major distraction).  There's no way he can afford to take on 500 or 1,000 well supplied and well fortified AV, and let him try if he wants to.  The Japanese aren't very good at major landings in late 1942.

There are circumstances in which you might wish to keep your carriers in the vicinity for awhile. For instance, you might be putting together a massive invasion of some strategic spot, getting your transports and combat ships into position...and just when the time is right, extracting your carriers from the Solomons and sending them sprinting (but concealed) to the invasion site, so that they arrive before rader knows they are gone and where they went.  Then you achieve supririse and operational air superiority and he's left guarding what you knew all along was a pretty unimportant region of the map.

It's that kind of thing that might net you a strong lodgement in Timor or Java or Sumatra or the Kuriles or India.  You'd seem to be letting him call the shots and control the tempo while in actuality you are doing so.

But for goodness sakes don't bog yourself down into a massive, lengthy engagement over some sector of the map that doesn't really mean alot.

[GreyJoy]

I won't bog me down! promise! [;)]

But first of all i want to get the Solomons safe. I want to make him spot my CVs with his Mavis...wanna let him know i'm there at full strenght...and CR, i like the idea of using the CVs in that way...but with all those transports devoted to the Indian operation (remember that i have at least 100 ships moving troops to CT or to WC) i'm kinda short right now... however the idea of prepping the Tarawa invasion while keeping my CVs in the Solomons till the very last moment sounds good... Timor is a no-no at the moment. I already had intel reports showing an Air HQ and an Army HQ present there...and the Andy Mac latest invasion of the area thought me that you cannot hope to get anywhere there if you don't have a network of bases supporting the operation....consider that i still have to build up NW Oz and Darwin is out of supplies since Dec 41... so i need to be patient...one step at time... Now i have the Indian counterinvasion plan which is a already logistical nightmare...i have a front line theatre (the Solomons) that require my attention...i think i can swollow only another small operation...using perhaps a feint...and Tarawa seems ok to me...but we have to be sneaky and fast.

[wpurdom]

I think this thinking is wrong, wrong, WRONG!

The Solomons aren't very important. It's nice that you have a strong network of bases there. It's even better that rader is sending in lots of reinforcements.

But he's the strategic winner if a big meeting engagement develops in the strategically irrelevant Solomon Islands. Why would you pin down your most important offensive assets (carriers) in a largely irrelevant region for months? Rader isn't going to risk his carriers unless the odds favor him, so you may up steaming around looking for chances for months with nothing to show for it.

You sure want to keep him focused there, but mainly by using smoke, mirrors, and some escort carriers. Meanwhile, you need to figure out where you really need your carriers in a month or six weeks and get them moving. And if you don't know where you really need them....well, get working on it.

To clarify, GJ, you've done a good job in the Solomons. You've built up a network of bases that have drawn rader's full attention (thus serving as a major distraction). There's no way he can afford to take on 500 or 1,000 well supplied and well fortified AV, and let him try if he wants to. The Japanese aren't very good at major landings in late 1942.

There are circumstances in which you might wish to keep your carriers in the vicinity for awhile. For instance, you might be putting together a massive invasion of some strategic spot, getting your transports and combat ships into position...and just when the time is right, extracting your carriers from the Solomons and sending them sprinting (but concealed) to the invasion site, so that they arrive before rader knows they are gone and where they went. Then you achieve supririse and operational air superiority and he's left guarding what you knew all along was a pretty unimportant region of the map.

It's that kind of thing that might net you a strong lodgement in Timor or Java or Sumatra or the Kuriles or India. You'd seem to be letting him call the shots and control the tempo while in actuality you are doing so.

But for goodness sakes don't bog yourself down into a massive, lengthy engagement over some sector of the map that doesn't really mean alot.

I won't bog me down! promise!

But first of all i want to get the Solomons safe. I want to make him spot my CVs with his Mavis...wanna let him know i'm there at full strenght...and CR, i like the idea of using the CVs in that way...

1. CR was clearly too belittling of your Solomons campaign in his first comment, but he's on the money with the second. He's trying to make the point with you that Nemo was with him - don't commit your strategic assets to non-strategic goals.

2. Your Solomons campaign is properly considered as a parallel to the historic Solomons-New Guinea campaign. Like me, you don't have experience in the logistics and timing of an offensive - for instance the feel for the required force level to take several bases at once in a brief period. Like MacArthur and Halsey, this a good theater to work out the kinks and do good work with your land forces, surface force, LBA, xAK's, APD's, xAP's, etc. - your non-strategic forces. Eventually, you can force Radar into a misallocation of forces or come up to truly strategic terrain as you get far enough west on New Guinea and islands north. And you don't have the experience or dexterity to fool him with smoke and mirrors alone.

3. But your promise to not get bogged down shows that you are missing the point that the more experienced players are trying to convey. As Nemo might say, your strategic assets are your CV's, and to a lesser degree your AP's and even less AK's. These need to be husbanded for a decisive blow, which can't be achieved in the Solomons. No plan survives contact with the enemy, and it is overly optimistic that you are going to dazzle your more experienced opponent with your footwork.

4. The problem with the employment of the CV's is that there are so many ways it can go wrong - PzB style ambush - miscalculating their reach. Sub attrition. Surface ambush. And for what? A minor victory in a secondary theater.

5. Risking attrition to CV's to accomplish deception only makes sense if you are going to accomplish a major coup de theatre elsewhere. (It's the same fallacy as the Japanese fell into at Midway.) And for that decisive blow, aren't you going to want the CV's in support.

Husband your carriers for the decisive blow. And be very careful of your AP's also - Nemo showed us that lots of xAK's and small xAP's and APD's can substitute for AP's in an area of attritional warfare.

4. Think of yourself as the Soviets - you're going to

[GreyJoy]

wpurdom: thanks! very good and deep analysis
 
Believe me when i say that i don't wanna risk my Carriers now. but, at the same time i want to have them in order to be ready, if needed, to exploit a Rader's mistake (if ever he makes them[:o]). So that means that i won't use them in the front lines. But i want to have them at hand. They're gonna be placed at Noumea for the moment. it's a safe area and he cannot arrive close unseen...but if something happens at Guadalcanal they will be close enough to give me more tactical choices about how to face the new threat.
 
APs and AKs can be very handy if well used. I used them to unload the first Marines Division at Lunga when Lunga was still a dot base...their unload rate is awesome and they really can change your day if you need to get in and out fast.
 
I know i'm committing a lot in the Solomons...but i still feel unsecure there, and i don't see any other theatre where i could look for the "decisive blow" you're talking about...not in the near future however...the Kb is still too strong and when she hides in the shades of Truk i remain lost...she could strike everywhere so i have to be very carefull and chose my objective with care...and, above all, be patient.
 
Nov 24-29 1942
 
Rader is now advancing south of Buka. He's reinforcing the base in the midde of Bouganville Island, while we're rushing to reinforce Russell Island...each opponent is getting closer to the other one and the noman lands (Munda) is getting smaller everyday.
 
At Karachi we had some light fights between Tojos and Spits...the japs always arrive in waves of 300+ planes, while i have 25 spits opposing them...nontheless we have lost only a single spit in the last 4 days of fightings[8D]
 
All in all pretty quiet turns...lots of moving ships, troops, planes etc...the Indian logistic adventure is really a PITA!!
 
It also seems that Multan is full of Jap infantry divisions...so he's not retreating!! probably he sent back just 4/5 major infantry units but the bulk of his forces is still there...

[GreyJoy]

Nov 30, Dec 1 1942

There's a HUGE shipping activity between Rabaul, Gasmata and Bouganville...Rader is clearly sending every reserve he has in this theatre...another Inf Regiment is reported moving to Guam and an Air HQ to Truk...

We've spotted some CAs too and a strong naval force is coming down from Truk...i'm expecting another visit to Lunga for tomorrow...the KB and for sure some SCTFs...we'll try to be ready

At Karachi he sent 50 Betties HEAVILY escorted against my DDs that are guarding karachi harbour ( to be reported that in the last 2 weeks it seems that Rader has completely retired every surface naval asset from India)...not a single hit and we managed to shoot down some of those bastards[8D]

A number of subs is by-passing Suva going south...for sure looking for my CVs...how could he know where they are!?[:@]...i'm dispatching lots of ASW TFs in the area...hopefully we'll keep them at bay...

however he always manages to slow down my movements...always...every time i think i'm safe and i understood his plans, he comes up with something new and unexpected...hat's off!






Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Karachi at 40,8

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 104 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 36 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 71
A6M3 Zero x 56
G4M1 Betty x 39
Ki-43-IIa Oscar x 58
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 227



Allied aircraft
Sea Hurricane Ib x 5
Hurricane IIb Trop x 2
Hurricane IIc Trop x 11
Spitfire VIII x 11
P-38E Lightning x 3
P-38G Lightning x 5
P-39D Airacobra x 5
P-40E Warhawk x 3
P-40K Warhawk x 9


Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
A6M3 Zero: 1 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 3 destroyed, 5 damaged
Ki-43-IIa Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CLAA Van Heemskerck
DD Encounter
DD Foxhound
DD Napier

[GreyJoy]

Wow...intel says 58 planes were shot down for only 7 of ours over Karachi[8D]
 
Ok guys, i decided to risk for PM even without my CVs. The KB is now approaching again the Solomons theatre (now east of Rabaul) and there are already too many signs that state that Rader is reinforcing also his NG perimeter... gotta move now!
 
Here's the plan: 150 bombers will bomb the SNLF unit guarding PM, then some USMC Para (the 3rd Bn) will land...hopefully they will conquer the base (it depends on how much the bomber will damage the enemy unit) then, during the following day, a fleet composed of my best APs and AKs should arrive bringin in the 27th Inf Div (diverted from the Indian counteroffensive in order to take care of PM first) and a NZ bde. Two US base forces will also be landed and, hopefully, by the beginning of next turn, the base should already be in our hands...the whole operation will be covered by the CVE Long Island with 18 F4F aboard...
 
finger crossed!!!
 
Night gents

[ADB123]

the whole operation will be covered by the CVE Long Island with 18 F4F aboard...

Did you test to make certain that the 18 Fighters will fly? I thought that we were told that LI would only fly 16...

[CaptBeefheart]

It looks like you have the Guadalcanal region wrapped up with no more need to reinforce with AV, regardless of how many divs or fragments he has prepped.

I would also paradrop on Milne Bay and perhaps one of the nearby islands (maybe Goodenough--which is indeed good enough) and do quick landings of BFs and engineers using APDs. You could then put some PBYs on the base(s) for nav search in advance of your PM invasion.

I would caution that your 18 F4Fs won't do much at PM if he has Betties and Zeros coming down from Lae. I would do a PM invasion using CVs, with the force to appear when you think the KB is around Truk or on its way back to Truk. If the KB reacts, then you should scoot before it gets too close with everything toward NE OZ and try to draw him in there for the fight within LBA range of your Oz bases. Easier said than done, but he might have a case of victory disease.

Cheers,
CC