The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think this thinking is wrong, wrong, WRONG! [:D] [:'(]

The Solomons aren't very important. It's nice that you have a strong network of bases there. It's even better that rader is sending in lots of reinforcements.

But he's the strategic winner if a big meeting engagement develops in the strategically irrelevant Solomon Islands. Why would you pin down your most important offensive assets (carriers) in a largely irrelevant region for months? Rader isn't going to risk his carriers unless the odds favor him, so you may up steaming around looking for chances for months with nothing to show for it.

You sure want to keep him focused there, but mainly by using smoke, mirrors, and some escort carriers. Meanwhile, you need to figure out where you really need your carriers in a month or six weeks and get them moving. And if you don't know where you really need them....well, get working on it.

I favor a commitment to the Solomons because it is the one place the Allied player can fight without having to commit his carriers. As long as you get a foothold, you can grind away with LBA and surface forces. And Japan has to put up some kind of a fight. It is a perfect place to use amphibious ships such as LCTs, and take advantage of your PTs and subs. And, the Japanese in 11/42 can't mount counter invasions in the Solomons without using the KB which opens up a chance to kill a carrier or two if he attempts it.

I don't think the game is to be won in the Solomons but in late 42 it is a fairly safe place to grab hold of the tiger while you are looking for a spot to drive the spear home.

[GreyJoy]

Dec 2, 3 1942

As always things didn't go as we wished.

First of all my CVs were sailing between NZ and New Caledonia and they were attacked by at least 15 subs!!...how could they know so exactly where we were?!!? There was no sightings in the previous turns, nor any of my SDBs spotted a sub or something like that that could reveal my position[:o]...
The damned wolfes sunk a DD and put a fish into the Hornet...luckly the ship was only lighlty damaged (14 sys and 11 flt) but she'll be forced to stay in port for a month at least...[:@]...now my ships are sorrounded by subs and i pray the Gods for their safety....we sunk a RO class sub but that is a terrible exchange rate for me....[:-]

Then at PM...

The complete silence about the operation gave us a complete surprise upon Rader. We didn't recon the base nor we attacked (by air or by sea) before the invasion....Clearly he was not waiting for us! We managed to get 550 AVs ashore before the end of the 2nd day...Japan only had 67 AVs with that big SNLF unit but...but...but we were unlucky this time.
Bad weather (despite the forecast was "extreme overcast") over PM prevented any bombing ooperation during the first day so my bombers didn't attack and my paras went in and got mauled...so the base didn't fall...but now we have enough forces ashore with enough supplies in order to conquer the base tomorrow (hopefully)...now all the airports in the opposite coast of NG are full of planes...so no more bombing missions ordered...my ships will run back to OZ (the precious APs and AKs must be saved!) and my DDs will act as a screen...even sacrifying themself if needed...i expect a strong response by Rader...probably he'll send bombers to attack my troops and some reinforcements lifted by air transports...let's see...

We were also lucky because there were no enemy planes on naval attack in the proximity....my CVE L.I. encountered during the process of getting close to PM a TF composed of 5 PBs...they didn't engage but the coward commander of the Air TF got scared and ordered to steam back to Cairns....[:@]...so my landing ships went in without any air cover...thank God we achieved a complete surprise...[>:]

The KB remains still near Rabaul...they are probably working in conjunction with those damned subs...lurking for my CVs in order to provide a combined operation against Lunga...well, now we gave to Rader another front (PM) to worry about!


ASW attack near Norfolk Island at 122,170

Japanese Ships
SS I-160, hits 4

Allied Ships
CA Astoria
CLAA San Juan
CLAA San Diego
DD Grayson
DD Gwin
DD Downes
DD Cassin
DD Flusser
DD Preston



SS I-160 is sighted by escort
DD Downes fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Cassin fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Flusser attacking submerged sub ....
DD Preston attacking submerged sub ....
DD Flusser fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Preston fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Preston fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Preston fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Preston fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Preston attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Norfolk Island at 122,170

Japanese Ships
SS I-160, hits 2

Allied Ships
DD Mustin, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
BB Revenge
BB Warspite
BB New Mexico
BB Colorado
CA Hawkins
CL Concord
CL Trenton
CL Raleigh
DD Benham
DD Van Galen
DD Arunta
DD Pillsbury
DD Sterett



SS I-160 launches 6 torpedoes at DD Mustin
I-160 diving deep ....
DD Van Galen fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Arunta fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Pillsbury attacking submerged sub ....
SS I-160 eludes ASW attack from DD Pillsbury
DD Sterett fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Pillsbury fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Sterett fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Sterett attacking submerged sub ....
DD Sterett fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Sterett fails to find sub, continues to search...
DD Sterett attacking submerged sub ....
Escort abandons search for sub


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Raoul Island at 123,170

Japanese Ships
SS RO-33, hits 14, and is sunk

Allied Ships
CV Hornet, Torpedo hits 1
CA Houston
CLAA Atlanta
DD Frazier
DD Lamson
DD Drayton
DD Cummings
DD Mahan



SS RO-33 launches 4 torpedoes at CV Hornet
DD Lamson fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Drayton fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Cummings fails to find sub and abandons search
DD Mahan attacking submerged sub ....
SS RO-33 forced to surface!
DD Mahan firing on surfaced sub ....
DD Lamson firing on surfaced sub ....
DD Drayton firing on surfaced sub ....
DD Cummings firing on surfaced sub ....
DD Mahan firing on surfaced sub ....
DD Lamson firing on surfaced sub ....
DD Drayton firing on surfaced sub ....
Sub slips beneath the waves

[GreyJoy]

The thing that p*** me off is that now he knows where my CVs are...and he knows they're far away from PM...he could counterinvade easily...Oh, well...think we had to try that...if only we could conquer the base on the first day...now we'd already have fighters there...ok, gotta live with it...as you said: there is no plan that doesn't crumble when the first contact with the enemy is reached!
 
In 30 days the Saratoga will be again operative so we'll be able to substitute the wounded Hornet...but now we need to get those ships to safety! cannot risk another torp!!!
keeps on puzzling me how he was able to so clearly identify the course of my CVs....
 
 

[ADB123]

In 30 days the Saratoga will be again operative so we'll be able to substitute the wounded Hornet...but now we need to get those ships to safety! cannot risk another torp!!!
keeps on puzzling me how he was able to so clearly identify the course of my CVs....

Subs can spot planes without necessarily being spotted themselves. Also, he likely has Glen-equipped subs down there and the Glens could have spotted your TF movement without being spotted.

The Japanese also get a limited amount of INTEL - and the more ships you have in a TF, the better the chance that those ships will end up in that limited INTEL list.

BTW - don't assume that those are the only subs that he has in that region.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: ADB123

In 30 days the Saratoga will be again operative so we'll be able to substitute the wounded Hornet...but now we need to get those ships to safety! cannot risk another torp!!!
keeps on puzzling me how he was able to so clearly identify the course of my CVs....

Subs can spot planes without necessarily being spotted themselves. Also, he likely has Glen-equipped subs down there and the Glens could have spotted your TF movement without being spotted.

The Japanese also get a limited amount of INTEL - and the more ships you have in a TF, the better the chance that those ships will end up in that limited INTEL list.

BTW - don't assume that those are the only subs that he has in that region.

Yes, i know, but i saw them coming 2 turns ago north of Suva...thought they were going to mine Suva while they were aiming at the perfect meeting point with my CVs!...he's always able to read my intentions...i must be an open book[:o]

Anyway, things could have gone worst so i don't whine. We have almost conquered PM which can give a boost to our operation in the theatre and at the same time divide the forces Rader can oppose me. He's now reinforcing Torobika (the dot base north of Shortland). Buka already reached level 5 AF...God those japs build fast!!

Now i'm trying first to save my CVs...they will be redirected towards Suva, under a decent LBA umbrella...while our precious AP/AKs will try to run for their lifes! i do waiti a strong aerial counteroffensive from Lae and Rabaul starting from Tomorrow...

We're also ready to heavily mine Lunga...which should provide some cover from his DD raiders...(i do expect to see them anytime soon in the iron bottom sound!)

Great fun indeed!!!![:D]

[SoliInvictus202]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

ORIGINAL: ADB123

In 30 days the Saratoga will be again operative so we'll be able to substitute the wounded Hornet...but now we need to get those ships to safety! cannot risk another torp!!!
keeps on puzzling me how he was able to so clearly identify the course of my CVs....

Subs can spot planes without necessarily being spotted themselves. Also, he likely has Glen-equipped subs down there and the Glens could have spotted your TF movement without being spotted.

The Japanese also get a limited amount of INTEL - and the more ships you have in a TF, the better the chance that those ships will end up in that limited INTEL list.

BTW - don't assume that those are the only subs that he has in that region.

Yes, i know, but i saw them coming 2 turns ago north of Suva...thought they were going to mine Suva while they were aiming at the perfect meeting point with my CVs!...he's always able to read my intentions...i must be an open book[:o]

Anyway, things could have gone worst so i don't whine. We have almost conquered PM which can give a boost to our operation in the theatre and at the same time divide the forces Rader can oppose me. He's now reinforcing Torobika (the dot base north of Shortland). Buka already reached level 5 AF...God those japs build fast!!

Now i'm trying first to save my CVs...they will be redirected towards Suva, under a decent LBA umbrella...while our precious AP/AKs will try to run for their lifes! i do waiti a strong aerial counteroffensive from Lae and Rabaul starting from Tomorrow...

We're also ready to heavily mine Lunga...which should provide some cover from his DD raiders...(i do expect to see them anytime soon in the iron bottom sound!)

Great fun indeed!!!![:D]

it's Torokina and not Torobika - but I really don't wanna start that whole "spelling" issue again [:D] [:D] [:D] [&o]

[wpurdom]

First of all my CVs were sailing between NZ and New Caledonia and they were attacked by at least 15 subs!!...how could they know so exactly where we were?!!?

Unfortunately, it was all too predictable. It's natural for him to assume that you would bring your favortie toys to the only game in town. He would flood the zone.

Nemo, the single most agressive Allied player on the boards, said you should leave the CV's in port about 90 % (not sure of the number - it was somewhere between 80-95%) of the time. It's working just as in history when the Allies deployed their CV's to "torpedo junction" in support of Guadalcanal.

If you are steaming 5 CV's in an area where there's a 1% chance of attack, in 10 days there's going to be almost a 50% chance of an attack. (The math isn't perfect, but it's close enough for rough analysis in this situation where he knows the theatre you're likely to be in. and will be committing multiple subs)

Here you have well more than a 1% chance each day for each CV to be attacked.

The PM assault you should feel equable enough about. After all, one of your main goals should be working out the mechanics of offensive attacks, etc. However it works out you can feel OK about necessary lessons learned.

Learning by getting CV's attacked by subs is an unnecessary learning experience. Move you CV's out of the theater for some reaonable base for your next most likely use of them.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: wpurdom

First of all my CVs were sailing between NZ and New Caledonia and they were attacked by at least 15 subs!!...how could they know so exactly where we were?!!?

Unfortunately, it was all too predictable. It's natural for him to assume that you would bring your favortie toys to the only game in town. He would flood the zone.

Nemo, the single most agressive Allied player on the boards, said you should leave the CV's in port about 90 % (not sure of the number - it was somewhere between 80-95%) of the time. It's working just as in history when the Allies deployed their CV's to "torpedo junction" in support of Guadalcanal.

If you are steaming 5 CV's in an area where there's a 1% chance of attack, in 10 days there's going to be almost a 50% chance of an attack. (The math isn't perfect, but it's close enough for rough analysis in this situation where he knows the theatre you're likely to be in. and will be committing multiple subs)

Here you have well more than a 1% chance each day for each CV to be attacked.

The PM assault you should feel equable enough about. After all, one of your main goals should be working out the mechanics of offensive attacks, etc. However it works out you can feel OK about necessary lessons learned.

Learning by getting CV's attacked by subs is an unnecessary learning experience. Move you CV's out of the theater for some reaonable base for your next most likely use of them.

Cannot but agree with you about the predictability of my move...however the fact that, despite my efforts, i remain so predictable makes me hangry.

Now i'll move them, giving as much escort as possible, to Suva first and will clean the waters with my LBA asw, then i'll decide where to move them. I do like the idea of having them at Noumea thou...close enough but enough far away from the KB or from his main assets...

For PM...the operation wasn't perfect. The aftermath of the operation (which is far from be concluded however) says i counted too much on the first day of air bombings, not taking into consideration the always possible variable of the weather...it was probably too complex to go perfectly. The plan was to have all these elements in this perfect consecution: 1- mass ground bombing of 150 bombers on the morning of the D-Day; 2- Para landing on morning of D-Day; 3- first amphib landings supported by 4 CAs and 10 DDs during the afternoon of D-Day; 4- Shock attack of the paras, supported by the artillery loaded from the ships on the late afternoon of D-Day and conquest of the base.

Obviously the first step didn't go well (the bombers only came the D-Day+1) and the paras didn't conquer the base...and so now i cannot transfer the 70 highly trained fighters i had prepared at CookTown and so now my ships are in danger of being attacked and torpedoed by his air army that has been fast trasfered in NG...and he could reinforce his garrison using air transport and use the KB to bomb to dust my bridgehead that, without any ships, would be left dying on the beaches...

ok...that's the most terrible scenario...let's hope it gets better

Anyway i'm pretty happy about the way the operation was planned, even without the use of the CVs or any preparation naval or air bombing

[Canoerebel]

Huh?  You'll move your carriers to an exposed forward port to sit for awhile?  That's the stuff Japanese KB ambush dreams are made of.  The way to extract your carriers from a dangerous zone is to extract them from a dangerous zone.  Sailing away rather that towards the danger would be the thing to do (assuming you want to move them out of the area, which is probably a good idea).

[terje439]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I do like the idea of having them at Noumea thou...

[X(] [:-] That is a gamble indeed. Sure you SHOULD get warning that he is coming for the port, BUT there are so many things that can go wrong;
-bad weather rolls
-gap in search patterns
-when trying to slip away you find out that some of the ships are low on fuel and use op-points on refueling leaving you within striking distance after all
-etc etc


Terje

[GreyJoy]

Ok Ok guys...you made up my mind...is Sydney any good for that?

[Smeulders]

Sydney or Auckland would work in that area. Preferably with a couple hundred fighters flying CAP over the base just in case.

[crsutton]

If you are sure KB is not in the area, set all of your SBDs and Avengers to ASW, put them at 100%, Set half to 0 range and the other half to 2 hex range. Keep a squadron or two on naval search. This will increase the spotting in your carrier's hex and a high detection level reduces sub attacks and causes more ASW attacks from you escorts and bombers. If there is a sub in your hex, the bombers will pound it. You might get 10-20 reported ASW air attacks a day and a lot of them will hit.

I have never tried it but my opponent recons and naval searches at night quite a lot, a squadron on night search might help as well. Do this until you are clear of his subs. You are still vulnerable to attack but it should help a lot.

Don't forget to reset your bombers once you are clear. And of course, unless you are in a real hurry, don't use obvious shipping lanes. Plenty of open ocean to go around.

Within the next six months you won't be worried about his subs so much.

[GreyJoy]

Another depressing turn.
 
Am not in the mood to post in detail...just let you know that the KB moved 16 hexes in a single day and pounded my APs/AKs that were running away from PM (and they are fast!), along with CVE Long Island...a surface TF composed of all his CAs plus 10 DDs did the rest...
 
PM is isolated with 300 fighters sorrounding it (the base is in my hands now) from the other coast and the KB in the middle.
 
Torokina or whatever already reached level 2 and he brought in already 6 units...he's advancing towards Munda faster than me
 
A CL TFs sunk my ships at Russell Island...
 
While my CVs burn fuel and time running away from his subs... oh, as usual, my subs happen to always be where they are not needed...no, sorry, they are needed as target for his air ASW...lost two subs today when he suddenly moved an Helens ASW unit to Torobika..
 
PM was a trap...he let the base almost unguarded in order to lure me in and then trap me...he's always two steps beyond me and it seems that i'll never learn enough to get him...
 
ufffffff[:o][:o][:o][:o]....need a good sleep....hopefully tomorrow i'll see things in a brighter way...but for the moment everything it's dark...
 
I know, i know...i decided to run the risk and now the consequences must be faced...and i'm responsible for them...but this man never fails! he always seems to have everything under control....depressing...frustrating...
 
night gents

[wpurdom]

Don't get discouraged. Better here than a 16 hex run to get just within range of your CV's supporting an invasion. Hope you didn't lose too many AP's.

Without experience losses are inevitable while you're building your experience, as they would be for me if I was in your shoes.

If you haven't already, you should read the AAR's with PzB and Andy Mac as a cautionary tale for what to avoid as you try to move over to the offensive.

[CaptBeefheart]

Ouch. How's the supply situation at PM? Also, do you have any 4Es to hit Lae and Rabaul from Cooktown or Cairns? You'd probably want to try night attacks first until you do some damage to those airfields.

Cheers,
CC

[GreyJoy]

Thx guys, well after a good sleep the world of AE seems less the worst possibile world

However the blow was hard to chew...

in fact the whole operation was based on the assumtpion that the position of my CVs remained secret so that he may not have risked to move his CVs past Milne bay, maybe trying to attack from Buna...

well...anyway...i'll try to do a detailed analysis of this defeat (provind screenshots and combat reports).

Now my AP/AKs fleet in halved and the loss of the Long Island hurts...however it ain't over yet...we're waiting to see what Rader will do next...will he push forward till Cairns? he has his whole fleet at hand there...

Yes i've read the whole PzB- Andy Mac AAR...and No, i cannot think of hitting Lae or Rabaul...i have only 30 4Es in the theatre and my pools are almost dry so...not for the moment...his fighters are dominating everywhere with numbers that i can only dream about...

You have to understand my sense of frustration...i've been brutalized in China (with the loss of the whole area in 3 months), i've been brutalized in India (with the loss of the 95% of the whole sub-continent), i've been trying to respond at Tarawa and in the Gilberts(while he was fully committed in India)...but i have been pushed back bloodly...now when i see he is weak in a sector (Solomons and New Guinea) i attack...only to see that he can react really fast, moving men, ships and planes from India to Sopac faster than i can move mines....my CVs are good only for running away from subs (and get torpedoed) while his can move wherever they want with absolute impunity and smash every attempt of mine to raise my head...his SCTFs dominates every single fight we had...raiding my convoys, screwing the my ships concentrations....etc etc.... you know...after 6 months (1 year game time) of this constant beating it's not always easy to soldier on

[Roger Neilson II]

Reading this AAR, which I do regularly, I cannot help but wonder if the air assets the Japs have in this scenario is much greater the in the standard campaign. It does beggar belief that their industry and training regimen could produce such numbers historically and I can only conclude they are massively tweaked to give the Empire a better chance to play the game as opposed to replay a historical simulation - am i wrong here guys?

Dons tin hat and dives into foxhole....... incoming!

Roger

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: Roger Neilson II

Reading this AAR, which I do regularly, I cannot help but wonder if the air assets the Japs have in this scenario is much greater the in the standard campaign. It does beggar belief that their industry and training regimen could produce such numbers historically and I can only conclude they are massively tweaked to give the Empire a better chance to play the game as opposed to replay a historical simulation - am i wrong here guys?

Dons tin hat and dives into foxhole....... incoming!

Roger

You are correct.[:)]

The only really significant drawback is the Heavy Industry tax payable by the Japanese on the first of the month on their large pilot pools.

Alfred

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Roger Neilson II

Reading this AAR, which I do regularly, I cannot help but wonder if the air assets the Japs have in this scenario is much greater the in the standard campaign. It does beggar belief that their industry and training regimen could produce such numbers historically and I can only conclude they are massively tweaked to give the Empire a better chance to play the game as opposed to replay a historical simulation - am i wrong here guys?

Dons tin hat and dives into foxhole....... incoming!

Roger

Yes Roger, this is Scenario 2 and Japan has much more of everything compared with the historical scen 1

Now i can count at least 3/400 first line fighters in the Solomons /NG area, plus more 1000 in India (where there are at least 450 operative Tojos).

In fact, despite the horrible losses taken by Japan in India, it seems than nothing has changed for Rader...he can always, everywhere, have the upper hand in term of quality and numbers. And even when the allies can put in line a fighter that outclass badly any contemporary jap fighter (see the Spit VIII after the LOD crossing) Japan will always win using numbers...you can get a 3/4-1 kill ratio...but they'll always come in waves of 500/600 fighters...every day...sooner or later even the best fighter will succumb against these numbers...

Don't know...probably this scen 2 was really too much for me...for sure Rader was too good to me...and i'm now paying the consequences of being arrogant and presumptuous