Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[ny59giants]

With four IJ divisions on Java and Steve apparently fully focused on the DEI, the odds of a major Japanese amphibious operation elsewhere go down (and they were already pretty low).  This is a good time for the Allies to do as much as possible to apply pressure on the perimeter - Burma, China, NoPac, CenPac (Tarawa), SoPac (Pago Pago), and SWPac (if I can get enough PP to pull some things together over the next two months, I think the Allies will reinforce Port Moresby and occupy Milne Bay).

What are the strategic importance of taking Tarawa, Pago Pago, and/or Port Moresby/Milne Bay?? Again, these are not of importance in this war. This game is focused on southern Sumatra and your ability to hold this area and eventually expand from it. After he takes Java, Steve may try to increase the cost for you to move anything else into Sumatra. If I was him, I would steadily tighten the noose around Sumatra and await the arrival of "Mr Tojo" to sweep the skies of Allied fighters. Open up Burma and push in supplies to China since that front seems to be in your favor. Continue your southern push from Burma down towards Bangkok and Malaya. If he can just isolate Sumatra, then you will apply pressure on him from where??

[Canoerebel]

I have another important decision to make:  Do the Allies flood Java's airfields with fighters and bombers, hoping for a strike agianst the KB?  Ordinarly, that would be a no-brainer:  Yes!  However, the airfields have low supply and are mostly small, so that strikes might be weak, ineffective, and costly against a powerful KB cap.  That, in turn, would weaken the more important strikes (from large, well-supplied airfields) when the Japanese come for Sumatra.  As you probably can sense, I'm leaning towards conserving my airforce for the "real thing" (plus the occasional strikes of opportunity).

[Canoerebel]

In reply to NYGiants post, the most important theaters of action are Sumatra, Burma, China and NoPac.  Those are getting most Allied attention and resources.
 
The Allies do have forces elsewhere that are not currently in position to lend a hand in these theaters.  Is it better to take the additional time needed to move them from their locations to one of these theaters, or to strike Japan in tender areas that, while not as critical, still hurt Japan and throw the enemy commander-in-chief off balance?
 
For instance, I have a bunch of restricted units on Australia's east coast.  One possible use of my scarce political points is to accumulate enough to purchase these units.  Where do they go from there?  Reinforce Sumatra?  Occupy Port Moresby and Milne Bay in Greater strength?  Invade Timor?  Invade New Caledonia?  Those are all possiblities, but my assessment of ship availability and opportunity tells me that New Guinea is a good use.  The risks there are low, but it would go a long way toward establishing an Allied outpose on what is ordinarily the Japanese MLR.  If the Allies hold Sumatra, New Guinea is totally irrelevant.  But if the Allies should lose Sumatra, New Guinea becomes very relevant.  At that point, the Allies will be hurting a bit and will still face a long fight against Japan.  Holding New Guinea (and the Gilberts) would mean the Allies had a head start.
 
I don't want to put all of my assets into one investment (Sumatra).  If that were done, the Allies would risk a blockade imposed by the KB, with the Allied garrison fixed in place and few assets to advance elsewhere.  But if the Allies retain fighting forces in a variety of places, and use those forces to make advances while the enemy focues on the DEI, the Allies will (1) keep the enemy off balance (2) divert forces and thus dulute Japan's strength in the DEI, and (3) take territory that will be useful, either immediately (Burma and NoPac) or under a worst case scenario (New Guinea and the Gilberts).
 
Does that makie sense?  Is my focus askew? 

[Canoerebel]

While the Allies have enjoyed a remarkable string of successes so far, the game remains very tense and exciting.  That's because the Allies have pushed the envelope very far, so there remains a chance that it could burst at the seems, and the Allies left in terrible shape.

The best way I know to minimize the chances of such a calamity is to keep pushing the envelope.  The goal is to keep Steve reeling so that he's never able to put together the kind of victory or victories needed to cause the seems of the bulging envelope to burst.

That's what Nemo was able to accomplish in his game vs. One-Eyed-Jacks.  Nemo kept punching until Japan, staggering under the weight of accumulated defeat and misfortune, surrendered meekly.

In my game with Steve, he's not in quite as bad a position and he shows absolutely no signs of quitting.  So I've got to keep stuffing more and more into the envelope, hoping it ends badly for him rather than me.  It's great fun!

[Canoerebel]

5/16/42
 
Missed Chances/Made Chances?:  The Japanese are landing three-plus divisions (52, Imperail Guard, 6th Tanks) at Semereng.  The armada is protected in-hex by BBs Mutsu and Nagato, witih the carriers stationed to the northeast.  The Allies might have been able to use their carriers to orchestrate a very nice cross-island ambush of the invasion force at a save distance.  But my carriers are a bit out of position as I had already decided to fight another day (a cost of commiting my reserves early in this developing battle).  The Allied carriers are about south of Padang, Sumatra, at the moment, and are thus in position to pursue another possibility.  A large number of Japanese merchants are exiting the Malacca Straits heading for Rangoon (or possibly to counterinvade Tavoy or Moulmein).  I have BB Revenge and CAs Dosetshire and Portland at Moulmein to handle things, but I may slip my carriers behind the merchants to finish them off.  The Allies are trying hard to whittle down the number of Japanese transports, and thrwarting early enemy efforts to address the developing crisis in Burma would also be good.
 
DEI:  The Allies will use B-17s to try to slow down the enemy advance across Java.  Japan can easily overwhelm the defenses, which were stripped months ago to reinforce Sumatra, but the Allies can slow this down considerably so that Sumatra might be safe well into June.  The Allies had to hold back a few transport TFs from heading into Oosthaven due tot he proxmimity of the KB, but two TFs have completed unloading a large American CD unit and an RAF base force.
 
China:  A Chinese army roughed up an already shattered IJ army outside of Kukong, once again mauling 104th Division.  This Chinese stack will now retire back through Kanhsien towards Changsha.  The Chinese army at Changsha/Kweilin will now sally forth to the northeast to try to catch and bludgeon the newly arrived and full-strength 40th Div.  Up at the Loyang sector, another Chinese stack will catch a depleted IJ army if it doesn't bug out within two days.
 
Burma:  The Allied expeditionary army at Moulmein might well be strong enough to recapture Rangoon if the Allies can stop Japan from reinforcing that base by sea.  If the Allies succeed in reclaiming Rangoon, they don't intend to withdraw.  Japan won't be able to mount a credible campaign against Rangoon until Sumatra falls (if ever), and by then it will be too late for Japan in Burma. 
 
NoPac:  It appears quiet up here, except for regular bombing raids.  Is it possible that Steve is temporarily satisfied with the status quo, having accomplished reinforcing a stout MLR south of Paramushiro and Onnekotan?  The Allies still expect to lose these two bases "any day," but just in case Japan is truly putting this on the backburner, the Allies will begin to organize the troops and ships to strongly reinforce Paramushiro.  This operation would probably include CV Wasp (and CVE Long Island if shie's on the map).  So, if Japan dallies for another four or five weeks, the Allies might decide that keeping these two islands is a possibility.
 
CenPac:  The Tarawa invasion TFs arrive at Pearl in about two or three days.  It will take a few days to unloading and then combat load, so the invasion force will likely depart Pearl in about a week.  D-Day in about 20 days, I think.  BBs Warspite and Colorada are already at Pearl.
 
SoPac:  Many of the transports have finished unloading and depart Pago Pago tonight.  No sign of imminent IJ reinforcement efforts.

[Canoerebel]

Goodness knows I've made alot of small mistakes and miscalculations in the game, with a few biggies thrown in to boot, but here's a couple of examples of continengcy planning that may pay off nicely:
 
1)  The decision to proceed with the invasion of Moulmein was made just over a week ago.  The decision to preposition the troops and ships was made about two weeks ago.  But the thought first occurred many weeks ago as 27th USA Div. was aboard transports heading to the IO from Capetown.  As a result, 27th Div. is 39% prepped for Rangoon, which probably beats anything Japan has there.
 
2)  The decision to proceed with the Tarawa invasion was made weeks ago, so that the prep assignment was made the minute 32nd Div. arrived as reinforcements at San Francisco.  32nd Div. is about three days out of Pearl, with prep at 29%.  By the time of the invasion, prep should be near 50%.  Many of the other Tarawa-bound units are 100% prepped.

[paullus99]

Chipping away at his merchants & possibly nailing some surface forces acting as escorts - all in the name of making Burma hotter for him than it already is, is more than worthwhile in my opinion. Again, you hit him where the KB can't interfere & it serves your purpose admirably.

[Canoerebel]

The decision has been made and orders issued the the Allied carrier TFs:
 
1)  Saratoga to remain on station south of Sumatra.
 
2)  Indomitable and Hermes to continue on to Colombo to replenish.
 
3)  Formidable, Illustrious, Hornet, Yorktown, Enterprise, and Lexington to proceed WNW to the Andaman Sea to be in position to strike enemy shipping.

[ny59giants]

Are you using Tracker at all?? It might help you monitor the supply usage in southern Sumatra and help you plan ahead. Do you known how long you could survive without any external input of supply in this area??

[Canoerebel]

I never could figure out how to load Tracker, much less use it.  So, no, I'm not privy to that information.  I do have more than 300k supplies in Sumatra, mostly at Palembang.  With the supply generated by Palembang, I believe the Allies are in good shape.  Supply usage is going to be tapering off as the Allies are maxing out on airfield levels now.

[John 3rd]

You might really be able to land another major blow with your preparations. Good Luck.

[Cribtop]

He is making another unprotected move in the same zip code of the Andaman Islands battle. I concur that this presents another golden opportunity to hit Chez where it hurts. Good hunting!

[JeffroK]

(Maybe). In reply to NY59giants question about the need to take SoPac islands.

Often you need to hold a base to take it away from your enemy, they may not lead anywhere for you but give them a stepping stone for future action.
If you can get some of them cheaply while your opponent is busy elsewhere it could be good value.  It may also cause a reaction which opens a small door elsewhere. IFFFF the occupation of Tarawa saw the IJN rush across map to counter, allowing a smoother entry into Sumatra you'd be praised for your planning.

Also

Having a look at other AAR, and messing with the AI in the DEI corner of the map, you often get into a step by step slogging match into an area full of large airbases and defensible terrain. Going through the Central Pacific and taking large steps between islands gets you into the Marianas with need for fewer invasions and battles. This can be made easier with the assistance of a crediblle threat in the SEAC/DEI area drawing away the IJN,  maybe the resources are not available in 5/42 but grabbing what terrain you can will help for the time when Essex & Hellcat arrives in mid 43. I suppose a 1942 offensive is possible in the SEA/DEI wheras you have to wait another year for CENPAC.

[Canoerebel]

5/17/42
 
Java:  The Japanese armada remains in place - transports unloading at Semereng, carrier TFs to the northeast.
 
Sumatra:  A Japanese DD TF sank a handful of ML operating just north of Oosthaven, then met an RN CL/DD TF in port with neither side taking meaningful damage.  Three Allied BB TFs are on patrol to the SW in close company with Saratoga.  Palembang airfield maxed out at level seven a few weeks ago, so engineers are now focused entirely on forts, which are 5.65.  Steve keeps up minor night bombing raids.  I don't like night raids as they seem overpowered, but I'll bide my time and repay him at some point.
 
Bay of Bengal:  Two IJ transport TFs totaling at least 20 ships are about two days out of Rangoon.  The Allies will impose a blockade using one or both combat TFs.   The combat ships are meant to rough up the transports and prevent supply from reaching Rangoon.  The Allied carriers, which are south of Sabang now, will close from the rear to ensure that none of these ships make it back to Singapore.  27th Div., 754 Tanks, and 14 UK Bde are about five to six days out of Rangoon.  Moulmein airfield is still shut down due to partisan activity during IJ occupation.  Thus, Allied fighters can't fly CAP.  Fortunately, this operation caught Japan with its pants down (as expected), so that base force personnel and/or supply problems have seriously limited the number of enemy aircraft flying from Rangoon and Bangkok.  In fact, no Allied ships have been damaged - a state of affairs I'd like to maintain.
 
China:  The Chinese will sock two small and weak IJ forces tomorrow while other Chinese troops are getting into position to deal with the two fresh IJ divisions - 40th east of Changsha and 3rd north of Sinyang. 
 
NoPac:  Subs and Netties claimed a PC and xAK at Paramushiro.  Wasp arrives at Balboa in 24 days, so if conditions remain static, the Allies could be in position to assert control of the LOC from the Aluetians to Para in about seven weeks.
 
CenPac:  An IJ sub heavily damaged an AP north of Pearl (drat, that's a good ship!), thus giving Steve intel that the Allies have troop transports in CenPac.  The transports will begin arriving at PH tonight with the balance tomorrow night.  D-Day at Tarawa in about 15 to 20 days.
 
SoPac:  Everything remains quiet at Pago Pago.  Most transports have departed.  The combat TF will remain at PP another day or two to cover the few remaining ships still unloading.  Final Allied AV here is 368.

[paullus99]

Your Chinese troops are gaining real experience with these manuevers - that's a very bad thing for your opponent as things move forward into 1943 - especially if you're able to start moving meaningful levels of supply up there as well.

I'm looking forward to moves at Rangoon - he's in a very bad position & more likely doesn't know it. This is about to be a repeat of the Pt. Blair fiasco for him, but he's going to lose Rangoon on top of it as well. It is a shame that more forces aren't available for you at this point (I bet allied command would have been screaming for more assets to take advantage of Japanese weakness if this had happened historically).

And if Chaz realizes that something may be up in the Pacific, he really doesn't have anything meaningful he can throw your way without curtailing operations in the very areas that he's already commited to - he is looking at a menu of bad & worse choices, and even if he doesn't choose, he's still in trouble.

Good luck & good hunting!

[John 3rd]

From his perspective this is going to be very BAD...

[Canoerebel]

The operation to interdict and destroy enemy shipping bound for Rangoon has mutliple complex layers - just another example of the wondrous complexities and detail of AE:

1)  The most important thing is to halt enemy supplies (and possibly some reinforcements) reaching Rangoon.
2)  The second most important thing is to destroy those ships before they can retire to safety in the Malacca Straits.
3)  The downside is that the Allies reveal the location of carriers, thereby giving Japan some latitude to do things elsewhere.  Also, any missions flown will mean the carriers will have to replenish at Colombo.  Not a big deal, since they were headed there anyhow.
4)  There's a chance that Steve can get his bombers to fly missions from Rangoon or Bangkok and could clobber the Allied combat ships.  Losing Revenge, Dorsetshire or Portland to serious damage or destruction would be a major blow.

But halting the flow of supplies to Rangoon is critical IMO.

[ny59giants]

any missions flown will mean the carriers will have to replenish at Colombo

You have plenty of ships that can convert to AKEs (or use AEs), besides those you have at game start. Move about 6 of the largest to the IO. Have them come into Port Blair and disband (I think they can just remain in a Replenishment TF) the same turn you move your CV TF in to replenish their sorties. Afterwards, the AKEs can move back to Colombo to reload supplies and reposition themselves about 1/3 the distance between Port Blair and Colombo to be used again if needed.

[Canoerebel]

5/18/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  A satisfying day for the Allies as the Revenge TF reacts and intercepts a large enemy transport TF bound for Tavoy.  The Allied ships sink 11 xAK, 12xAKL and an SC and destroy 250 squads.  It appears that there is a second TF bound for Rangoon.  A second Allied TF is on patrol at the mouth of the river, so I hope the door is shut tight.  With a good bit of the enemy already liquidated, most of the Allied carriers, which I don't think were sighted, have been ordered to replenish at Colombo, just two or three days distant.  Enterprise and Yorktown will continue to a point west of Port Blair to handle any further opportunities.
 
Burma:  The Burma Army crossed the river from Schwebo and evicted an IJ engineering unit from Mandalay.  tomorrow, two Chinese divisions will reach the hex adjacent to Lashio.  And tomorrow, the main Allied spearhead (27th USA Div. and 14th UK Bde.) will reach the hex adjacent to Rangoon.  Japan has a crisis in Burma.
 
China:  Chinese stacks mauled small IJ units in three or four places.
 
DEI:  The Japanese took Semereng in strength (much more strength than needed to conquer now-vacant Java).  The KB is just north of Semereng in the Java Sea.  Two IJN DMS were pummeled by Oosthaven's CD guns.  I don't know if the ships were merely unlucky or serving as scouting kamikazees.  Palembnag forts to 5.69 and growing at a rate of .04 per day.  That's very good.
 
CenPac:  The Tarawa TFs will all be at Pearl tonight.  Unloading and re-loading might take four days.
 
SoPac:  A small IJ CL/DD force flagged by Yubari met a stout Allied TF flagged by Pensacola and San Francisco under the command of a 70/71 officer....but the Japanese gave better than they took.  Three small USN warships were moderately damaged and will retire to Pearl.  The Japanese didn't penetrate, though, so the handful of remaining merchants at PP weren't touched.

[paullus99]

He must have expected you to react with carriers against his landings on Java - and use the diversion there to cover his reinforcement convoys into Burma. Once again, he's reacting in exactly the wrong places with the wrong assets.

I would keep an eye on Oosthaven, I don't know if that was a mistake or the first move towards a real landing there - using the troops he just dropped in Java (since he has to do something with that force). Your carriers, once they've replenished, should be in a good position to continue to cover your burgeoning Burma offensive & also react if he does make the move to Sumatra.

Good luck with the second convoy - though if I was him, I'd pull them back as quickly as possible.