Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

The shock attack at Rangoon tomorrow is really crucial:

1. If it fails, the Japanese should be able to bring in reinforcments to secure their hold at Rangoon. In that event, the Allied army will have to be content with holding western Burma until the Japanese arrive in greater force (which will happen eventually). Since the Allied army at Rangoon arrived from Pegu, that's the only hexside open to retire the army if needed. So they would go first to Pegu, then up the road to Mandalay. I don't foresee any circumstances in which the Japanese could stop that army once it reaches Pegu, but if Steve were to take Pegu before my Rangoon army retired, I'd be in a world of hurt. Right now, Pegu is held by a UK brigade, and the Rangoon troops should be able to retire in a matter of two or three days.

2. If Rangoon falls, Japan is toast in Burma until it can orchestrate a major counterlanding at some point in the future. The Allies have troops in India prepping for Burma, and using the network of air bases that would then exist, the Allies could reinforce in strength. There would be a real question if Japan could ever re-take Burma, because it would first have to deal with Sumatra in the coming months (to do vice-versa would be suicidal). Burma would become very strong.

So all this hinges on tomorrow's attack.

[Cribtop]

And that, sports fans, is why they play the games. Good luck, Dan.

[Canoerebel]

5/29/42
 
Burma:  The Allied shock attack at Rangoon failed, though the Japanese suffered higher casualties.  A fresh UK brigade just arrived, but USA 27th Div. is badly disrupted.  My guys will have to rest.  The Brits will bombard to see if the Japanese reinforce (there is some shipping in port now).  Right now, no apparent threat to the line of retreat, so my units will remain in place.  The Allies should take Tongoo (spelling), the final link in the chain of bases stretching from Pegu up to Mandalay and beyond.  (P.S.  I can't figure out the failure of the Allied attacks - the army is decently prepped, 27th Div. is under good command, and there is plenty of supply.  The first attack nearly got 2:1 odds and the Japanese force is meager. Such is war!)
 
Bay of Bengal:  The KB remains position between Malaya and Andaman Island.  The Allied carriers are a bit NNE of Trincomalee, just monitoring things.
 
China:  The Chinese will get another crack at 6th Div. unless it withdraws tonight.
 
DEI:  Quiet since the KB is away.
 
SoPac:  Quiet at Pago Pago, though the IJ AV is rising steadily as the invasion troops recover disruption - up to about 750 now.  It will be at least two weeks before I can get reinforcements there from Pearl.  Forts should go to 4 tomorrow or the day after.  Supply is good.  AV is steady at 370.
 
CenPac:  Tarawa TFs still rendezvouing between south of Canton Island.  I don't know what's awaiting at Tarawa.  I plan to do some recon starting a day before the landing.  The Allies have 32nd Div., tanks, combat engineers, and two Marine RCT.

[Cribtop]

Well, he is in light urban (2X IIRC) with presumably some fort levels (how many?). Did the combat report show any minuses for you? Plusses for him? Those factors are usually the key.

[ny59giants]

Have you moved a Command HQ from India into Burma?? It will help draw in supplies and if you prep it for Rangoon(radius 9 hexes), it may help with combat odds. I wonder if having a Command HQ at Imphal and Mandalay would draw the excess supply from India into Burma. If so, then you could use the supply draw buttons to get some into China.

[Canoerebel]

He has one fort.  He got plusses for terrain (minor urban) and leaders.  The Allies got a plus for shock attack and a minus for disruption (in the 20s after the deliberate attack of the day before; ordinarily, the Allies would have rested a day, but the situation called for a "throw everything at them attack" for reasons explained in previous posts).
 
No Allied HQ in Burma at present.  One is prepping at Madras, though I can't bring it in until the coast is clear - but it probably won't be clear until the issue is decided.

[Canoerebel]

5/30/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  The KB has taken station just north of Andaman Island, shielding the transports Steve has on the way to Rangoon.  Many IJ combat TFs are also in this region. He is giving Burma his full attention, which certainly means Sumatra has a breather for awhile.  The Allied carriers are posted just NE of Trincomalee, 16 hexes from the KB.  I don't think Steve knows their location, though he has to assume there close.

Burma:  No reinforcements at Rangoon yet.  27th US Div. needs a few more days to rest and recover, though I'm not sure they'll get it.  This is a tight thing, as described in detail a few posts back.  A strong Burma Army unit will arrive at vacant Taungoo tomorrow (an IJ unit is one hex away, but I think it has lost the race).  If the Allies take Taungoo, the road is open from Schwebo all the way to Pegu.

China:  The Chinese roughed up 6th Div. for the second time in three days, this time destroying 200 combat and non-combat squads (a total of 460 during the two attacks).  Thus, 6th Div. is probably down to about 250 or so AV.  A bigger Chinese stack (6,000 AV) gets a stab at two Chinese units north of Sinyang tomorrow (unless those units evacuate tonight).  No matter what these units are, they will be toast.  I'm not sure why Steve doesn't withdraw his units in the face of overwhelming odds, but he's been tardy many times.

DEI:  Quiet.  The Japanese are methodically, but not quickly, advancing across Java.  Palembang forts to 6.12 and increasing at a rate of .03 per day.  Oosthaven airfield at 8.78 and increasing at a rate of .01 or .02 per day.  The Allies continue to air evacuate Java base force personnel to various bases in Sumatra.

SoPac:  Another IJ TF (seems to be combat ships) nearing Pago Pago.

CenPac:  Tarawa invasion TFs have rendezvoued and are perhaps five to six days away.  No sign of detection.

NoPac:  The Japanese continue to build up their Kuriles bases.

[paullus99]

He's concentrating his combat power (finally), but I think it will be too little, too late - he's losing control of the situation in China & hasn't retrieved the situation in the Kuriles yet either. Your move at Tarawa is going to catch him flat footed, just as he's making progress in Java (but still not in a position to move against Sumatra).

I really like the fact that you're going to be in a good position to "reinforce" success and provide some good jumping off points for your future offensive operations, rather than try to make up lost ground. Even if he holds Rangoon, his overall position is compromised & he's either going to have to commit way more forces than he otherwise would need to try to make up for lost time or try to dig in & place defense here.

He has to realize that every day your position in Sumatra gets stronger, but like a good arsonist - you keep lighting fires in different locations that he has to deal with (and unfortunately for him, but fortunately for you - he's done a poor job in closing the deal, anywhere at this point).

[Blackhorse]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

And that, sports fans, is why they play the games. Good luck, Dan.

[:D]

[GreyJoy]

How are planes and pilots losses so far?

[paullus99]

Hmmmm....been pondering. Since you know exactly where the KB is & he probably doesn't know where you are - do you have enough combined combat power to accept battle at this point? If you can get in a good strike & take out 3 - 4 carriers, you know he's pretty much sunk since you will be replacing your losses at lot sooner & he won't have enough left to escort future invasions.

Just a thought - perhaps not the time to take a big risk like that, but it could be appealing. A good discussion topic as well.

[Cribtop]

Some of my answer to that question depends on the status of Dan's air groups. It's still too early for Avengers, yes? With Devastators and bad torps, your strike power is diluted. Unless you pulled the torps and increased Dauntless group size.

[Canoerebel]

After mulling over the possibilities, I decided not to commit the Allied carriers.  While the Allies have the advantage of knowing the exact position of each side and have a friendly level one airfield at Port Blair to provide some help, the American carriers are still short of dive bombers.  I have one squadron of SBDs at Bombay trying to draw replacements, but the computer isn't allowing me to do so.  Also, Hornet still has Helldiver biplanes.  So I'm just lurking while monitoring the situation.  If a better opportunity arises, then we'll see.

Allied pilot and plane losses have been light since Japan basically turned turtle for three months.  The Allies have plenty of Army pilots in the reserve pools, but are short on Navy pilots.

[Cribtop]

Dude, you didn't say you had Helldivers. Increase speed to flank and attack, you lily-liver! [:D]

Obviously the above is sarcasm. An exchange would be to your benefit, but with the lack of good DBs and TBs you are unlikely to achieve an even exchange. That said, the idea seems sound if you can arrange the correct conditions. The remaining strategic assets in Steve's hands are KB and the extra scenario 2 ground forces. Deprive him of KB and watch the floodgates open.

[Canoerebel]

Oh yeah, a defeat of the KB would be a mortal blow to Steve at this point.

As for ground troops, the Allies have emphasized the war in China for the reason you mention:  Japan draws four extra divisions in Scenario Two, so the Allies have tried to hit as many IJ divisions in China as possible.  Thus far, six have been forced to retreat after combat multiple times to the point that AV is seriously diminished.  This has created a crisis in China for Japan, so that Japan is forced (I hope) to send additional divisions into China and certainly doesn't have the luxury of drawing divisions out.

This also gives me peace about India, which was under-garrisoned for much of the game.  India is very close to secure at this point, even if Steve got a wild-hair and came for it full bore.  If necessary, I could put 3,000 AV into Bombay, which has 700k supply.  In addition, 500 AV in regular reinforcements arrive in Aden/India over the next 40 days, with the equivalent of a Marine Division arriving at Capetown over the same time period.

If these troops aren't needed in India (and they almost certainly won't be), they might be used in Burma, Sumatra, or to counterinvade someplace like Timor...or possibly to garrison Darwin in strength.

[Miller]

Hello Dan.

One thing that puzzles me is you will not take on the KB whereas you did (And came out about even) in our game at around the same date.

Considering you are in a much better position in this game I dont understand your caution. A 50/50 or even 40/60 exchange would more or less finish off the game as a contest. Once the KB is gone or at least partly destroyed he has nothing left to stop you.

[Canoerebel]

Hey, Paul. I could feel that it was right in our game, but not in this one at this time.  Also, in our game I wasn't counting on the Allied carriers for anything particularly crucial at the time.  In this game, the carrier figure prominantly in the defense of Sumatra.  There, I hope to use LBA and positioning to really whack the IJ invasion fleet.  I'm leary of doing anything that might affect my ability to do so.  As Nemo would put it, my carriers are my reserve.  I need to use them only if it will be decisive in my favor.

[Canoerebel]

5/31/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  KB remains just off the north tip of Andaman Island.  Mutsu, Nagato, Atago, Takeo and Kuman bombard Port Blair.  Allied CVs are southeast (true) of Ceylon.
 
Burma:  BFF Brigade should take vacant Toungoo tomorrow.  Still no IJ reinforcements on the ground at Rangoon, where the Allied troops need to rest at least two more days.
 
China:  The Chinese really battered the fresh IJA 3rd Div. north of Sinyang.  That's the seventh IJ division mauled in the past six weeks:  3, 6, 34, 36, 37, 39, 104.  Currently, the biggest IJ army in China is at Kaifeng - nine fresh divisions - say 4,500 AV.  The Chinese have 8,500 AV operating in two stacks near Sinyang.  Even combined, that army can't take on nine IJ divisions, so they'll keep probing for weaker prey.  I can't be positive, but I think the defeat of seven divisions has to have created a bit of a crisis for Japan.  (Japan has already lost 2,000 points in troops - in my game with Q-Ball, Japan didn't reach that level until late 1942 after the Allies destroyed a bunch of divisions caught and trapped in India.)
 
Sumatra:  Oosthaven airfield to 8.80.  With two IJ BBs in the Bay of Bengal and a third at Pago Pago, and with at least seven IJ cruisers committed in the Bay plus Pago Pago plus NoPac, there is no imminent threat to Sumatra - the Allies have much more seapower in the region at the moment.
 
SoPac:  Heie, Tone and Chikuma return to Pago Pago, dropping off a few men (probably support elements of troops previously landed) and supply.  Forts go to four.  A fresh USA RCT is aboard transports enroute from Pearl Harbor.  ETA probably ten days.
 
CenPac:  Tarawa invasion armada 21 hexes to the ENE.  No sign of detection.  A "mock" invasion force of a few small ships scraped together is a few hexes NE of Wake with no sign of detection.

[SqzMyLemon]

Great job in China, although I don't know why he's making it so easy. A simple matter of pulling those divisions out of harms way until he can at least mass to cause a stalemate. You can definitely see that the current state of affairs is causing even the simple fixes to go unimplemented and those divisions won't recover anytime soon either.

[JeffroK]

CenPac: Tarawa invasion armada 21 hexes to the ENE. No sign of detection. A "mock" invasion force of a few small ships scraped together is a few hexes NE of Wake with no sign of detection.

Its a pain when decoys dont work as decoys, maybe you need to kick the Wake garrison a bit, or has it been evacuated??????????