Early Barbarossa

[Curtis Lemay]

I’m making a couple of hypothetical variants on my “Soviet Union 1941” scenario. I’ve already finished the first one: It considers a “what if” where the Germans have fully motorized the Wehrmacht before Barbarossa. But, I want to do another “what if” where the Germans, despite the Balkans Campaign, and the late thaw, still launch Barbarossa about when it was originally scheduled (let’s say five weeks earlier – May 18th). (I may then do a third, ultimate, “what if” that combines both of those.)

To do the Early Launch right though, I need to know the condition of both sides at about mid-May, 1941 (especially the Germans), as well as just where the spring mud hadn’t cleared. My sources only specify where each division was by month, not week. I was wondering if anyone out there knows of any sites that could help.

[Oberst_Klink]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

I’m making a couple of hypothetical variants on my “Soviet Union 1941” scenario. I’ve already finished the first one: It considers a “what if” where the Germans have fully motorized the Wehrmacht before Barbarossa. But, I want to do another “what if” where the Germans, despite the Balkans Campaign, and the late thaw, still launch Barbarossa about when it was originally scheduled (let’s say five weeks earlier – May 18th). (I may then do a third, ultimate, “what if” that combines both of those.)

To do the Early Launch right though, I need to know the condition of both sides at about mid-May, 1941 (especially the Germans), as well as just where the spring mud hadn’t cleared. My sources only specify where each division was by month, not week. I was wondering if anyone out there knows of any sites that could help.

I love 'What-if' variants... There might be one little catch and I am NOT trying to be a S/A. The spring of 1941 was quite wet in Eastern Poland and Western Russian, so the 'road' conditions might have not been as favourable as they have expected them to be. However, it's after all a 'What if'... *will check some RWD archives*

Regarding the deployment of the Axis and the Russians. I recall there's a scenario around for ye'ole War in Russia Matrix Edition somewhere... That might help.

I am still looking for some Russian sources that have Zhukov's plan, too.

Here are some sources you might find the OOBs or even more ideas for the 'What if'.

I am trying to find an e-book of 'Stalin's missed chance'.

That's all for the moment I am afraid Bob.

Klink, Oberst

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Oberst_Klink

I love 'What-if' variants... There might be one little catch and I am NOT trying to be a S/A. The spring of 1941 was quite wet in Eastern Poland and Western Russian, so the 'road' conditions might have not been as favourable as they have expected them to be. However, it's after all a 'What if'... *will check some RWD archives*

I hope to be able to model that. Of course, it's anybody's guess as to just how to do that. At the least, I can paint a lot of terrain with mud.

Regarding the deployment of the Axis and the Russians. I recall there's a scenario around for ye'ole War in Russia Matrix Edition somewhere... That might help.

If there is, I can't find it in the download.

Thanks for the effort, though.

[Panama]

You realize the Germans wargamed this thing to death and even with the planned jump off date and the deck stacked heavily in their favor they always ended up in front of Moscow with no reserves, exhausted and over extended. In other words, OKW knew they couldn't pull it off in a one campaign season. I was thinking of doing a long war approach for the Axis. They would use Leningrad, Vyazma, Kharkov, Mariupol as a stop line for 1941. Gas up, recover, jump off in spring 1942.

Well, short of a collapse anyway.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Panama

You realize the Germans wargamed this thing to death and even with the planned jump off date and the deck stacked heavily in their favor they always ended up in front of Moscow with no reserves, exhausted and over extended. In other words, OKW knew they couldn't pull it off in a one campaign season.

If so, so what? Whatever their expectations were, the reality that ensued put them very close to the prize - without the planned jump off date and deck not stacked in their favor. The "what ifs" I'm planning might find out if there were alternatives that could have made the difference. That's sort of what wargaming is about.

[Panama]

Not all the games were the same. Not all of them had all the benefits directed to the Germans. OKW knew they couldn't achieve what Hitler wanted under the circumstances dictated by time, fate and Hitler even without knowing the Soviets had about twice the force the Germans thought they had. Hitler didn't listen. Just stating the facts. Nothing wrong with that.

Didn't say you had a bad idea. Didn't say you were crazy. Didn't say you shouldn't do what you feel like doing. Didn't say anything negative. Just stated a historical fact. Certainly didn't mean to ruffle your feathers. [:D]

People on this forum are waaaaay too sensitive. What are they all mad about? [&:]

[Oberst_Klink]

ORIGINAL: Panama

Not all the games were the same. Not all of them had all the benefits directed to the Germans. OKW knew they couldn't achieve what Hitler wanted under the circumstances dictated by time, fate and Hitler even without knowing the Soviets had about twice the force the Germans thought they had. Hitler didn't listen. Just stating the facts. Nothing wrong with that.

Didn't say you had a bad idea. Didn't say you were crazy. Didn't say you shouldn't do what you feel like doing. Didn't say anything negative. Just stated a historical fact. Certainly didn't mean to ruffle your feathers. [:D]

People on this forum are waaaaay too sensitive. What are they all mad about? [&:]

'What-if' are a jolly good way to add more spice to existing scenarios. Reminds me about the SSG BF series (the old one from the 80s). Example:

5. KANEV September 23rd, 1943

In the aftermath of the failed Kursk offensive in July 1943, German forces throughout Russia were in retreat. The Soviet Army was determined to pursue their enemy with the utmost vigour and thereby prevent the establishment of major fortifications on the Dnepr River...

SCENARIO VARIANTS

(a). Assume the Russians had been better prepared to drop their airborne forces. Advance the arrival turn for all units of the 1st Airborne Corps to turn 2. Increase the supply value of the 1st Airborne Corps HQ to 5.
(b). Assume the 7th Pz Div had been able to move in support of 24th Pz Korps a few days earlier. Bring forward the arrival turn of all units in the 7th Pz to turn 3.

Just reading through it is a source of inspiration...

Klink, Oberst

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Panama

Not all the games were the same. Not all of them had all the benefits directed to the Germans. OKW knew they couldn't achieve what Hitler wanted under the circumstances dictated by time, fate and Hitler even without knowing the Soviets had about twice the force the Germans thought they had. Hitler didn't listen. Just stating the facts. Nothing wrong with that.

They were still games, however. Based upon pre-Barbarossa estimates of the Soviets. I'm just pointing out that reality is better evidence. And, in reality, they came very close - despite the late start and etc.

Didn't say you had a bad idea. Didn't say you were crazy. Didn't say you shouldn't do what you feel like doing. Didn't say anything negative. Just stated a historical fact. Certainly didn't mean to ruffle your feathers. [:D]

People on this forum are waaaaay too sensitive. What are they all mad about? [&:]

Might help if people didn't assume anger where there was none.

[Panama]

There would certainly be many things the Soviets did between 18 May and 22 June that wouldn't have happened had the Germans started in May. Even if it were muddy, mud doesn't take sides and the Soviets would have been disorganized in the mud as much as they were without it. Probably would have hurt them more then the Germans. Also between 1 June and 22 June there were many many artillery tubes delivered. Over 2,000 field guns.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: Panama

Also between 1 June and 22 June there were many many artillery tubes delivered. Over 2,000 field guns.

Which side?

[Panama]

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

ORIGINAL: Panama

Also between 1 June and 22 June there were many many artillery tubes delivered. Over 2,000 field guns.

Which side?

Soviets. Trouble they had was with moving the stuff. [:D]

Another thing that would be very different with an early start. Those 20 Mech Corps that started forming in February 1941 were still forming or hardly formed 22 June. If you jump off mid May they would be in such bad shape some wouldn't even be considered combat units.

By 22 June none of the new divisions had any unit training. They didn't know how to work together as a cohesive unit. Some troops had no equipment training. Most had no gunnery training. They had about 2 hours training driving a tank on average. Many of these new divisions didn't even START forming until March-April.

An example of how bad these new units were. The 26th Tank Division, on 22 June 1941, had no tanks, no armored cars, no heavy howitzers, no AAA, few trucks and almost no unit training. Basically an infantry regiment. Given that, the 27th Tank Division was considered the 'most poorly equiped unit'. It did have 25 training tanks.

So like I said, even if there were mud the situation would be far worse for the Soviets than for the Germans.

[Curtis Lemay]

No doubt there would also be fewer T-34s, KV-Is, etc. due to five fewer weeks of production.

I had always assumed the Soviets would have their readiness/proficiency levels slightly reduced, due to being slightly closer to the purges. Maybe more than slightly.

But the Germans would surely be short some of the units that were in the Balkans. I've got to get that sorted out.

[LLv34_Snefens]

I've got scans of the German Lage Ost maps from 1939, 40 and 41 that show the the location of divisions. It is really clear to see the build-up accelerating from april onwards. For April I have day 1, 5, 12 and 23rd. For May I have 1, 13 and 27th.
The problem is they are quite large, about 8mb each, but if interested I can maybe upload them somewhere for a limited period of time.
I've added a preview to give you an idea about what they contain.

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: LLv34_Snefens

I've got scans of the German Lage Ost maps from 1939, 40 and 41 that show the the location of divisions. It is really clear to see the build-up accelerating from april onwards. For April I have day 1, 5, 12 and 23rd. For May I have 1, 13 and 27th.
The problem is they are quite large, about 8mb each, but if interested I can maybe upload them somewhere for a limited period of time.

Count me as very interested - especially in the last two May dates.

[Panama]

They look like they would be a great source for information for various scenarios.

[Curtis Lemay]

Here's what I've got so far. I used Todd Klemme's "Balkans 1941" scenario to get the OOB for that campaign. Then I used the Feldgrau site to get the histories of the units involved, as best I could - augmenting it with other sources where it was spotty (it's still spotty for some units).

I've color-coded units as non-Barbarossa (magenta), post-start (tan), and thereby identified two units that were in the historical start but maybe not ready for an early start (cyan). Those two units are the SS Das Reich and the 16th Mot. Other units appear to have been lightly involved or not involved at all, and so would have been ready for an early start.

From that, it appears that the Balkans Campaign shouldn't have been much of an impediment to an early start after all. Could it have just been the mud?

[LLv34_Snefens]

I've uploaded the May dates as well as June 5th and 16th.

May 1st, 1941
May 13th, 1941
May 27th, 1941
June 5th, 1941
June 16th, 1941

[Panama]

Even after the end of the Balkans campaign there were start dates that were scrubbed because OKW and Hitler were arguing about objectives. It was a lack of consensus among the upper echelon, not a problem with the weather. It's strange how that is something that is not very well known. I'm not sure how much time was lost at various moments because of suspended operations so they could argue about strategic objectives.

Because fo the Balkans and the squabbling we will never know if an invasion would have been launched successfully in the mud. There are two things that are certain. Hitler wanted Leningrand and the Ukraine first and Moscow last. So a march through the Balkans and Western Poland might not have been so bad. The south would have been an entirely different story.

[Panama]

I have Slaughterhouse, Hitler's Legions, Nafziger plus there are all the different web sites. Nothing ever agrees across all of those sources. [:D]

[Curtis Lemay]

ORIGINAL: LLv34_Snefens

I've uploaded the May dates as well as June 5th and 16th.

Got em. Thanks.