Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Canoerebel]

We're beginning June 1942, so a theater analysis is in order to see how Allied operations are complimenting each other:

DEI:  Here is the key theater in the game.  The Allies have pretty much maxed out defenses in eastern Sumatra.  The question is whether the Allies can hold permanently.  If so, they've won the war.  But Japan will have the ability to isolate this area and try to overcome the Allies there for some undertermined period that should last anywhere from three to six months.  Gradually, the Allies should attain enough assets and power to "come to the rescue" of eastern Sumatra if it remains in Allied hands long enough.  The short term objective is to hammer the first major Japanese effort to land in eastern Sumatra.  The long term objective is to hold eastern Sumatra long enough for initiative to change.

Burma:  It appears that the Allies will not succeed in taking Rangoon, which is disappointing.  A successful campaign would have turned Burma into an Allied stronghold that would have complimented the defense of Sumatra.  Nevertheless, the Burma campaign has been successful, though to a lesser extent.  At little cost, the Allies have tied up the KB and major combat ships for weeks as Steve (successfully) mounted a quick Rangoon relief effort.  At a minimum, Burma bought eastern Sumatra two weeks (maybe as much as a month) of freedom from isolation. 

China:  The Chinese army has been on a rampage, taking on and savaging seven IJA divisions over the past six weeks.  There was little strategic skill involved in this - rather, I believe the success came in the fact that Steve thought the battle was about bases when it was really about units.  I hope to continue the pressure in China indenfinately.  This is a low risk, high return theater of operations for the Allies.  At the very least, I believe the situation prevents Steve from buying units out of China for use elsewhere.  It's possible he's even had to send fresh units there to stave off what seemed like a disaster in the making for awhile.

SoPac:  Pago Pago is important to the Allies only because it's become important to Japan.  For the Allies, the operations there are low risk/high reward (the Allies can afford to lose everything committed).  PP has tied up BB Hiei and two IJN cruisers for two months.  Japan keeps feeding troops and ships into the melee to no good effect.  In order to frustrate Japan and to keep Steve's attention at Pago Pago, the Allies will reinforce a bit and commit additional combat ships if there seems to be a chance to whack Hieie, Tone, and Chikuma.

CenPac:  The Allied invasion of Tarawa is imminent.  A failure here could result in a reverse Pago Pago.  So, if things go sour, the Allies probably ought to bug out.  If successful, however, Tarawa (and associated islands) poses a major threat to extended Japanese LOC down the Solomons to Fiji, Pago Pago, and New Caledonia.  The Allies would also cast a glance to the north (Mili, Majuero, Wotje, etc.).

NoPac:  The March invasion of NoPac really threw Japan for a loop for awhile.  Even now, nine weeks later, Japan has at least two CAs, perhaps as many as four, and a CVE operating up here.  Alot of ships and units are involved in base building.  Japan can easily re-take Onne and Para at the moment, but if there is a further delay into the summer, the Allies may try to re-supply, reinforce, and try to hold these bases into the winter.  But these bases are "on their own" for at least another month, after which I might have CV Wasp and CVE Long Island available for duty.   

[Canoerebel]

6/1/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  The KB is stationed west of the Andaman Islands - its first foray into the Bay proper.  Canoe HQ considers the possibility of a raid on Ceylon very remote.  However, the Allied carriers and some RN and USAAF fighter squadrons are available.
 
Burma:  Japanese reinforcements are landing at Rangoon, raising the AV up into the 300s and effectively ending any chance the Allies had of taking this city.  Japanese forces also reclaimed Moulmein from a reduced-strength USA RCT.  Burma Army did take Tongoo, thus giving the Allies control of the roads from Pegu up into western Burma.  The Allies will begin withdrawing from Rangoon.  I may try to destroy the isolated IJ regiment at Lashio in the process.  The withdrawal will be methodical - waiting to see if Japan brings enough to really take control of Burma.  If so, the Allies will eventually retire into India.
 
DEI:  Sumatra remains quiet.  The Japanese take Soerabaja.  4th IJ Div. has an AV of 273 - possibly reduced when the Allied carriers struck the IJ invasion fleet three weeks ago.
 
Pago Pago:  More IJ transports arrive with a handful hammered by shore guns.  The Japanese shock attack with terrible results for them - 1:2 odds result in 70 infantry squads destroyed.  Neither the Allied army nor forts were touched.  The Allies might try a counterattack (though, honestly, I'd like Steve to continue feeding in ships and men, so I wouldn't want it to succeed, so should I try it?).
 
Tarawa:  Invasion armada 16 hexes to the ENE.  No signs of detection.  A couple of Allied xAKLs recently unloaded supply at Johnston Island and weren't detected by any enemy patrols out of Baker Island.  It's possible, I suppose, that Steve has what he deems to be higher priority uses for his patrol squadrons.  (Canoe HQ hopes that's a good sign.)
 
 

[paullus99]

Well, it would be counter-productive to end his presence at Pago-Pago, since you do want him to keep feeding men & supplies (if only to get a whack at the surface ships & AKs/APs) - and you don't want to weaken yourself (unless you think you can cripple him, without driving him off the island).

Too bad about Rangoon, but he's still forced to commit forces in the wrong place, at the wrong time - at least you may be able to stabilize a line that can continue to threaten his position here.

If he does try to raid Ceylon, you can position your carriers to take advantage of his settings on port / airfield strikes. He may be tempted to push forward, if only to try to inflict some damage & attempt to regain the initiative. I would pay close attention, because it could prove to be an excellent opportunity for you to catch him with his pants down.

[Canoerebel]

Yes, the KB sitatuion is under constant evaluation.  Right now, the closest decent IJ ports are Georgetown and Rangoon, both of which would be subject to raids by B-17s from Palembang.  So, if the KB sticks its nose too far into the Bay of Bengal, it might be worth rolling the dice and attacking.  Damaged IJ carriers would have a long, dangerous trip back to a safe port - subject to subs and LBA through the Makassar Straits.

[Canoerebel]

By the way, I think 15th Army HQ might have played a critical role in Japan's defense of Rangoon.  The Japanese only had one RCT there - and it had arleady been beaten once in battle.  Japan also had the light urban bonus.  But the Allies had 450 AV.  The conquest looked to be a sure thing, but adjusted IJ AV was always considerably higher than expected.

[Cribtop]

Yes, especially if 15th Army was 100% prepped, it would have added materially to his defense.

I concur with Gen. Paullus. I actually rate the odds of a KB raid on Ceylon at 50/50. If he comes any farther, it might be time to try for an exchange with KB IF you have any LBA that can help. If not, we're back to bi-planes versus Zeros and in all likelihood an uneven exchange that deprives you of your masse de decision. Look at me gettin' all Napoleonic! [:D]

[zuluhour]

Do you manually set search arcs for CV TFs for maximum detection in particular sectors or leave them alone perssumably to allow 360^ patterns? I ask because I wonder if there might be blind spots?

[ny59giants]

Dan,

Some may consider this 'gamey,' but you could fly off your American Devastator TBs and replace with some of your carrier capable Vildebeest and Swordfish. Also, how many of the American CVs have upgraded to Avenger TBs?? Finally, I like to have a Marine fighter group (18 planes) on each American CV until the Wildcats re-size in July 42. You need all the strike power you can muster to go up against KB if you choose to do so.

[Canoerebel]

Two of my carriers have Marine fighter squadrons.  I haven't swapped out any Devastators for Avengers yet - I've just now received enough to swap one and I'm debating whether to use that for Wasp when she arrives in eleven days. 

My current thinking is that I won't switch out Wasp right away.  I would have to do so at Pearl, and I think I might instead send her straight from Balboa to the Pago Pago area.  If Steve continues his predictable, risky runs to that port without carrier air cover, Wasp could be positioned closely enough to use her Devastators. 

Long Island is nearing Christmas Island.  I may use her to shuttle a Marine Wildcat squadron from Pearl to Pago Pago.  Afterwards, she can take on an SBD squadron and join Wasp to create a Mini-Mini-CB (IE:  small, small carrier battalion).

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: zuluhour
Do you manually set search arcs for CV TFs for maximum detection in particular sectors or leave them alone perssumably to allow 360^ patterns? I ask because I wonder if there might be blind spots?

I don't think Steve and I are using the Beta patch. If not, search arcs are broken in the version we are using, so I am not setting them. My patrol aircraft seem to be operating efficiently.

[ny59giants]

Since he has a strong surface force down near Pago Pago, I would strongly consider placing a SC TF there to be followed by your CV TF. When John 3rd was learning AE, I had my American CVs in three TF around G'canal. His BBs and CAs missed my SC TF one hex away and ripped into my CVs. Not a pretty sight. [:(]

[Canoerebel]

The Penscacola/San Fran combat TF is returning to Pago Pago after refueling.  Also, Warspite and Colorado may head there after the Tarawa invsion (they would arrive before Wasp makes it).  I have an AE and an AD at Christmas Island to help with replenishing ammo (in case the battleships are depleted after the invasion).

So, yes, the carriers will work in tandem with the combat ships.

Right now, Hiei, Tone and Mikuma arrive at PP and spend a day or two supressing shore guns while transports unload.  Surely, Steve has to be nervous about this, so I'm not expecting the practice to continue...but it's happened before.

[Canoerebel]

6/2/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  KB has moved south and is near the Nicobars, between Sumatra and Andaman Island.  She may sweep south of Sumatra, or may head back down the Makassar Straits.
 
Burma:  Allied army retiring from Rangoon in good order.
 
DEI:  Quiet.
 
SoPac:  Marine shore guns tore into at least ten transports at Pago Pago.  This is becoming a Vietnam-like tar baby for Steve.
 
CenPac:  Tarawa invasion TF sighted nine hexes ENE of that base.  I thought I'd be able to get one day closer.  D-Day probably three days away.  I'll scrub the mission if enemy air sorties in strength, but for now the invasion is on.  Tarawa is just a level two airfield, so we'll see what happens tomorrow.

[Cribtop]

It is generally a bad thing for your opponent to refer to one of your Ops in his AAR as "Vietnam like." [:D]

[Canoerebel]

6/3/42
 
Bay of Bengal:  The KB has disappeared, making it more likely she's cruising the waters south of western Sumatra (I think I would have picked up that mass of ships in the narrow waters of the Makassar Straits).  I've beefed up patrols, repositioned a few picket ships, and sent the shipping south of eastern Sumatra further south and east.

Burma:  Allied retrograde (spin word) movement from Rangoon is going well.

DEI:  Quiet.  Oosthaven airfield to 8.90; Benkolen airfield just went to 7 (I'm stopping it there as I don't want to make a gift of a 9-level field to Steve when he comes calling); Palembag forts to 6.24.

SoPac:  Enemy shipping retired from Pago Pago (temporarily).  Steve has 15 units (30,000 men) there now.  A reinforcing USA RCT is on transports about ten days out.

CenPac:  Enemy patrols all over the Allied ships approaching Tarawa, but no strike aircraft sortie.  My ships are in good position, so the green light is on.  Tomorrow, 8th Marines, a battalion of 9th Marines, and a tank battalion will land.  If I'm lucky, that's enough.  If it looks like more is needed, 32nd Div. will come ashore the following day, but if the first landings show that the base is too strongly held, I'll withdraw 32nd Div.  Float-plane recon from BB Colorado didn't show anything (meaning it was ineffective).  Up at Wake Island, my little decoy force hasn't been sighted and is in the process of circumnavigating the island at close range.

NoPac:  SigInt that 54th Div. is prepping for Paramushiro.  I would like to hold the two islands, though I need at least a month to have the assets in place to give it a shot, but if nothing else I like the idea that the enemy will be marshalling the assets to engage in a large-scale operation up here - thus diverting some assets that might otherwise be used against Sumatra.

[Cribtop]

Hmmm. Dan, just as he starts to get that bad feeling about Tarawa he is trying to send KB along the southern coast of Sumatra or towards Ceylon. He may be a bit distracted to be that far in Indian Country. Watch for an opportunity!

[Canoerebel]

My carriers are crusiing close to Colombo, where they can get some LRCAP from American fighters (should it prove necessary) while awaiting several dive bomber squadrons to replenish and replace losses.  The carriers should be fully operational in a day or two, so the Allies will give battle if the Japanese dare to venture that far afield.

[Saros]

Dont forget that LRCAP on a CVTF is incredibly ineffective.

[Canoerebel]

6/4/42

This update is based only on the combat report as I haven't viewed the replay yet.

Tarawa: The invasion goes superbly (a rare occurrence with me and atolls). BB Colorado was embedded with the transports and delivered a punishing counter-battery fire that destroyed five squads and disrupted others. Elements of 8th and 9th Marines and the tank unit came ashore - total AV about 145 facing just a Naval Guard unit and base force totaling 55 AV. Adjusted AV for the Japanese dropped to two and the Allies easily took Tarawa.

What's Next at Tarawa: The Allies will land the rest of both regiments, a sea bee unit, and base force, try to extract the tank unit, and try to maximize supply.

What about the Rest of the Invasion Troops: The Allies have 32nd Div. and a combat engineer squad ready to go but not needed. I have a big decision to make: Should I withdraw the TFs to someplace like Christmas or Pearl to begin prepping for a new target? Or, in the total absence of enemy opposition, should the Allies strike at Nauru and Ocean, which are undoubtedly lightly defended? I'm inclined to the latter. Other options I've rejected: Baker Island (troops 100% prepped are already on the way from Pearl, so this isn't necessary) and Mili/etc. to the north (too close to Kwajalein, which I believe is heavily defended).

[Cribtop]

I vote Nauru & Ocean. Tarawa is a raid. Three islands is an offensive. Maximize the pain on his OODA loop. Be ready to pull 32nd Div back to Pearl asap though as an LCU that big is wasted on garrisoning little islands.