Empire of the Rising Lemon? SqzMyLemon (Japan) v Smeulders (Allies)

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

I'm flying the A6M2 Zero, the A6M3a will go into production in Dec. 42, ten days from now. I can produce 212 Zero's per month so I'll switch to the A6M3a immediately and crank out the airframes. This is why I expanded my production capacity early in the game, I don't have to waste time repairing factories to increase production, I can hit the ground running.

I don't think the A6M2 upgrades to the A6M3a. So you will have to repair all of the factories when you make the change, unless I miss understood and you have a bunch of R&D factories on the A6M3a.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I don't think the A6M2 upgrades to the A6M3a. So you will have to repair all of the factories when you make the change, unless I miss understood and you have a bunch of R&D factories on the A6M3a.

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! If that's the case Pax, I may be in trouble. [:D]

Does the A6M3? In that case I may be at 50 per month, so it's a start at least.

[fcharton]

Hi SqzMyLemon,

You can get that information in Tracker, the Air Production module, check FUpgrade box. In my game (scenario 2, but I expect this is standard), A6M2 upgrades to Sen Baku, and A6M3 to A6M3a.

Francois

[SqzMyLemon]

Thanks Francois,

I use tracker, but in this case I clearly dropped the ball. I'm obviously no Lord Beaverbrook [:D]. Good news is I'll be able to produce the Sen Baku bigtime. It's not the end of the world though. The A6M3a won't win or lose me the upcoming fight and I wouldn't be able to replace all the carrier aircraft prior to the battle anyway.

What's your opinion of the situation in China, I know you focus there in your matchup [;)]. I think it's a solid plan, but the terrain will be atrocious to fight through and a lot will depend on how the Chinese decide to counter.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

I don't think the A6M2 upgrades to the A6M3a. So you will have to repair all of the factories when you make the change, unless I miss understood and you have a bunch of R&D factories on the A6M3a.

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! If that's the case Pax, I may be in trouble. [:D]

Does the A6M3? In that case I may be at 50 per month, so it's a start at least.

Sorry to be the bringer of bad tidings ...

[fcharton]

Hi SqzMyLemon,

I very much doubt the Chinese can counter anything. It is December 42, the Burma road has been closed for ages, and you hold lots of resource/industrial areas (the Hunan Basin, the region between Kweilin and Liuchow, and all the north). Their supply situation makes counterattacks very unlikely.

Have you tracked which stacks, among the many ones that appear on the maps, are, in part or in totality, composed of defeated units? My experience is that any KMT unit defeated and forced to retreat loses a large part of its strength. And, in situations like yours, when they defend out of base, and without enough supplies, recovery (even of disablements) is extremely slow. As a result, you can have stacks that recon sees as very large (20 something units, 200k troops, or so), but that bombardment will reveal as mere shells.

I like your plan in Southern China. You might want to reconsider one point, though: your main route of advance is along a secondary road. This means two things : slower progression rate (especially as the enemy will be able to use the faster roads to reinforce), and worse supply flow. Do you think you could follow the major road from Shaoyang to Chihkiang instead (or as well)?

Another question: since you already have troops north of Ichang (in the mountain hex) have you considered attacking over the river the dot base there (Patung). It seems that the road arriving there is not a secondary but a primary road (type "r"), which means a successful attack there might pose a very strong threat to enemy supply lines... It could be worth trying if you have some spare troops in the area, or a good destination for the victorious troops from Sining.

As for terrain, that's standard fare in China, the best we can do is use the roads and railroads.

Francois

[SqzMyLemon]

Hi Francois,

Thanks again for posting. I agree, a route along a major road would alleviate the supply flow, however either route of advance along a major road will allow the Chinese to shift to meet my main thrust. This way I give myself two options to advance and two problems for the Chinese. If I punch a hole in the middle of the line, that leaves both flanks vulnerable, especially the Changteh flank. It may cause another withdrawal and allow me to take another base cheaply.

Your point about disabled and depleted squads is a good point. I'm lucky in the fact that eight of the units holding the river crossing were the original defenders at Kweilin and were treated roughly. If it takes as long as you say to recover and it's compounded by the fact they do not occupy a base then I may have chosen the best route. The other three stacks around Changteh, Chihkiang and Tuyun are unbloodied.

I like the route around Ichang as well, originally I thought a thrust from Ankang towards Chungking would be a good move, but if the Chinese hold at Changteh then the Patung route would seriously threaten them with encirclement. Sining should fall with a shock attack and then I'll see what I have available. I'll still have to guard against that 56 unit stack moving at somepoint. Right now that unit in the mountains near Ankang is the 90th Inf. Rgt.

It all comes down to whether I can smash that middle force quickly enough to get the jump on the Chinese. I'm hoping about 5000 AV will do the trick.

I'm so not getting any work done today

[SqzMyLemon]

A note on the A6M3a. I checked the ratings of each aircraft last night and other than being 5 mph faster with a higher ceiling, the A6M3a isn't that much of an improvement over the A6M2. Unless I goofed and looked at the A6M3 instead. Sigh, now I'm unsure and will have to check when I get home. [8|]

I won't worry too much whether I have A6M2's or A6M3a's, as the differences won't come into play operating at 15k in any upcoming naval battle. With no planes in production yet, and whether it's better or not, there won't be any A6M3a's available anyway. It's up to the A6M2 baby!

Almost finished the next turn. Between posting here and the monumental shifting I'm doing all over the map this turn has been a monster to prepare. Everything from moving surface ships, to plane production, to combing the Empire for available LCU's and transport shipping and re-routing fuel TF's to Truk and area.

[PaxMondo]

Pretty sure the guns change with the A6M3a. better hit percentage.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Pretty sure the guns change with the A6M3a. better hit percentage.

Pax, you're killing me, you know that right?

[SqzMyLemon]

The next turn awaits in my inbox. The Japanese response this turn will be limited to possible submarine reactions as they close in on Tabiteuea and area. I expect more Allied TF's to make an appearance to drop off reinforcements and supplies to the base.

I'm moving a small SCTF to Ponape, to then creep forward to make a full speed run into Tabiteuea to try and stir things up a little. BB Yamato and company are still at Truk awaiting the arrival of BB Musashi. Another BB led SCTF is about to reach Truk and the Junyo has departed Babeldoab for Truk. A total of around 20 subs will be in position within days to interdict the LOC's. KB is steaming east towards the Marshall's. I hope they can remain undetected though, as I plan on dangling the Junyo or a few CVE's N.W. of Tabiteuea to try and make the Allies think I'm coming the most direct route, from Truk, and then hit them from the N.E. instead. When all my surface ships reach Truk they will refuel and join up with KB. The Tarawa, Baker and Gilbert counterinvasion forces will follow and form up in the Marshall's. I'm leaving the CVL's and a strong SCTF at Singapore to guard against an Allied move in the Indian Ocean. I won't send KB too far initially as I want it supported by the follow up SCTF's. This may be a risk, but with the Allied carriers stationed at Tabiteuea. I've dispatched a number of raiding SCTF's to take up station east of the Marshall's to interdict any shipping from Pearl Harbor heading west.

Every SNLF, Naval Guard and other such units nearby are being transferred to Truk and will be used in secure the islands around Tabiteuea providing I gain naval supremacy.

Betty's and Nell's are being transferred to the Solomons and Marshall's as are most of my Zero units. A Tojo unit from Burma is being redeployed and currently sits at Babeldoab.

The 54th Division at Saipan is embarking for Ponape and then to Tarawa. An Inf. Rgt. is earmarked for Baker Island. The 16th Division is being redeployed from Ambon to Ponape. Army and Navy air support units are en route as well. The 6th Air Division HQ arrives in 6 days and will be deployed to the Marshall's. I'll be able to buy out another Inf. Rgt. from China in 4 days and it will also head for Truk. Construction units are en route to follow the amphibious TF's to get airbases established as quickly as possible, supply is plentiful at both Babeldoab and Truk, with another 200k on the way.

Both Babeldoab and Truk have around 70k worth of fuel each and a further 250k is being diverted to stock up Truk. Half my fuel/oil transport capacity will devoted the next month to ensuring I have enough fuel for operations. Regular shipments from Palembang/Singapore to Japan will continue with the remaining shipping. I should start to receive some new tankers soon which will be put to immediate use.

In China, I've been transferring Sally bomber Sentai's and my air offensive will begin shortly. I've bought out the 4th Air Division HQ to provide addition support and it will be deployed at Changsha. Some engineer units are being withdrawn for deployment in the Pacific. I will be reforming the 20th Division shortly at Sian and this unit will deploy to Ichang to march on Patung. Sining will be shock attacked as soon as all assault units are resupplied, a few days at most.

The immediate goals are reinforce Tarawa, capture Baker Island and land troops in the Gilbert's all the while looking for a strike to defeat the Allied Fleet.

[SqzMyLemon]

Nov. 20/42:

Wow, things bode ill right from the start.

Sub Ops:

SS S-39 hits SS I-123 near Rennell Island with one torpedo. Flotation damage is 97 with 57 system damge, she'll sink tomorrow. The I-123 was carrying mines for the Gilbert's.

SS Herring spots and duds on CV Zuikaku near Eniwetok at hex 123,107, giving away KB's position at a critical time. SS Herring takes one direct DC hit from escorting DD's. Despite 19 DD's in the hex, an Allied submarine is unsuppressed and gets a crack at a CV. I am incredibly unlucky when it comes to any movement of KB, only once have I been able to sortie her without being detected let alone attacked by enemy submarines. I'm just thankful for Allied duds.

Burma:

A night air attack by B-24D Liberator's (6) targets Chiang Mai and causes 1 AB and 1 Runway hit, one Ki-45 KAIa Nick is destroyed on the ground. My mistake. I redeployed the fighters, but forgot to set them on night CAP.

China:

Sally's (22) target Sining's airbase for 1 AB, 1 ABS and 22 Runway hits.

The Gilbert Islands:

Allied CV's are still present as troops unload at Tabiteuea. SBD-2 Dauntless' (14) again hit Tarawa's port for 2 Port and 1 Port Supply hits.

Miscellaneous:

Nagoya expands fortifications to size 3
Keijo expands airfield to size 3
Ponape expands fortifications to size 4
Munda expands airfield to size 3
Loemadjang expands fortifications to size 2

SC Ch 8 taken out of commission to begin refit at Singapore
SC Ch 12 taken out of commission to begin refit at Singapore

Well, the jig is up. KB is spotted already and the Allies' know I'm in the area, worse they know I'm around the Marshall's and not coming directly from Truk. The option is to continue on with my operational plans or bail. I plan on continuing to move KB to a position east of the Marshall's and await my trailing SCTF and amphibious TF's.

This is a huge break for the Allies. We'll see whether they stick around or withdraw. Either way, I'm sticking to the plan. Get reinforcements to Tarawa and occupy the bases around Tabiteuea. 11 submarines will converge on Tabiteuea tomorrow and I can start setting up the submarine cordon. I truly hate the Allied subs, they react, fire successful torpedo attacks that are only ineffective because of faulty torpedoes. In comparison, the Japanese submarine force achieves almost nothing in terms of intelligence, successful attacks against merchant shipping and hasn't hit anything bigger than a DD in ages.

[SqzMyLemon]

Nov. 21/42:

Sub Ops:

SS S-18 is spotted near Madang by the E Kari and is forced to dive deep. No DC hits are recorded despite a serious ASW attack form the Japanese. E Kari in a second spotting of SS S-18 launches another ASW attack and scores a near miss DC hit.

SS Triton is spotted near Buka. For the second day running the DD Yunagi and DD Oite fail to launch a DC attack.

SS Salmon duds on the PB Magan Maru near Agrihan. No ASW attack is launched by escorting PB's.
SS Seal duds on the xAK Ryuko Maru near Agrihan. No ASW attack.
SS Skipjack sinks the xAK Akasisan Maru with one torpedo hit near Agrihan. No ASW attack. Troops from a contruction unit are lost.
SS Swordfish duds on the xAK Nittai Maru near Agrihan. No ASW attack.

So I run across an enemy four submarine TF near Agrihan where each gets an individual attack in against the same TF. I am truly envious of the superior Allied submarine forces in comparison to the Japanese. If not for duds I'd be getting massacred. Yep, Japan is totally overpowered. [8|]

Australia:

Darwin is still bombed daily in an effort to deny the use of the airbase and port to the Allies. These raids are almost always unopposed. However, Fenton is being expanded and is a threat to provide LRCAP against my bombers, which indeed happened today.

So question. How many P-38E Lightning's does it take to ruin a JFB's day. Answer...5. My Zero sweep went in combined with the bombing raid somehow and Darwin was not swept prior to the bombing attack. P-38E Lightning's (5), Kittyhawk 1A's (3) and P-40E Warhawk's (10) jumped my sweepers and escorting Oscar's with the Lightning's at 25k getting the dive. Despite 43 Japanese fighters against 18 Allied aircraft, six Zero's and three Oscar's were downed against one Kittyhawk and two Warhawk's. A P-38E Lightning showed up as an Ops loss. Darwin suffered only 2 AB and 18 Runway hits, but the bombers were only damaged. Almost all Japanese losses were due to the Lightning's.

The Solomons:

B-17E Fortress' (36) hammered Lunga's airbase for 1 AB and 56 Runway hits.

China:

A shock attack captures Sining and suprisingly all defenders surrender despite open hexsides to retreat through. The Chinese suffer 951(0) infantry, 1488(0) non-combat and 79(0) engineer squad losses including 241(0) guns totalling 25325 casualties. Japan losses 2(96) infantry, 44(62) non-combat and 0(8) engineer squads including 46(9) vehicles totalling 1402 casualties. Three Chinese BF's and two Chinese Corps are wiped out as is the 8th War Area HQ. The resources and light industry are completely trashed as generally happens when I take a base over. No luck in getting facilities just lightly damaged.

Miscellaneous:

Hangchow expands airfield to size 2
Shortlands expands airfield to size 4

And of the Allied Fleet at Tabiteuea? They've withdrawn at least 10 hexes south and taken up station around Vaitupu. The only TF spotted was described as 7 BB's and 2 AP's. Once KB was spotted it was highly likely the Allies' would withdraw, and according to script they did just that.

I press on, at least I hope to have a few more days to stabilze the situation around Tabiteuea. I've got every Mavis in theatre set to troop transport in as many units as I can into the surrounding islands around Tabiteuea. I'll send in supplies covered by strong surface forces and additional troops as they arrive. I plan on making Tarawa a strongpoint from which to operate from. KB has slipped away further east and I hope to keep her hidden in strike range between the LOC from Pearl Harbor and Fiji. I just have to dodge Allied submarines and also be on the alert for the Allied Fleet if it retires towards Hawaii.

Being spotted might work out well, it has at least bought me a few more days to gather additional force together.

With the capture of Sining, I can now shift a large force to apply more pressure on the Chinese. At least I don't have to worry about a strong garrison or the need to chase after the Chinese now. It really is too bad that I can't seem to capture a Chinese base without if being completely destroyed. Is damage to a contested base perhaps set a little too high upon capture? It's not for me to say, it is what it is.

[SqzMyLemon]

I forgot to mention I heard the submarine sinking script during the last replay. I'm guessing another Allied submarine has succumbed to damage from air ASW. I've got a couple of Sentai's with high skill now and they are starting to make a difference. One of these Sentai's will be redeployed to the Solomons as there is a heavy enemy submarine presence there.

I've noticed a real reduction in the number of enemy subs around Timor, Makassar and Kendari and that is where my good air ASW is currently based.

On another note, the SS I-123 is still afloat. She's making for Munda, but system damage increased by one to 58. If she doesn't get to a port soon, I don't think she'll make it. Flotation damage remains at 97.

The next turn is away, so I'm waiting to see if I get a fix on the enemy CV's again. I'm a little nervous about having KB off on her own northeast of the Marshall's. I've got a replenishment TF steaming from Babeldoab, but they are a week away yet. I may transfer another effective air ASW Sentai to the Marshall's as they will soon be swarming with enemy submarines hunting KB and anything else I send there.

The next few days could be interesting, or they could be like the last 11 months. I'm not holding my breath the Allies' will come out to fight if I respond as intended. I guess the argument could be made that it actually helps me in the short term if they do not.

[SqzMyLemon]

Another turn to run when I get home, but I've been thinking more on the current situation. The next week will be important to get established in the Gilbert Islands. I don't want any Allied momentum built up. If I can limit the amount of assets the Allies' can pump into Tabiteuea while I systematically enclose the base with a cordon of Japanese bases, I can create a situation where the Allies must act offensively, but in a defensive stance. He'll have to commit forces against the threat of interdiction, or better yet commit forces to keep a direct LOC open to Tabiteuea. In fact, his withdrawing might give me the time to arrive in strength and force him to attack me now. It won't be his operation anymore, but mine. To hold Tabiteuea they must reinforce it, to build it up they must reinforce it. I can also mask my eventual invasion of Pago Pago by efforts to contain Tabiteuea.

So, essentially, I'm going to try and rest the initiative away from my opponent by turning his own offensive action to one of defence, and use the momentum shift to launch my own offensive forcing him to concede territory or commit his naval forces.

A plan is formulating where I might be able to apply Nemo type logic. A holding action in the Gilbert Islands will focus my opponents attention on reinforcing or withdrawing his units at Tabiteuea. While he is doing that, I'll be looking at striking deep into his LOC. In order to stop my thrust he has to divert resources earmarked for his latest invasion. If he doesn't, and continues to reinforce Tabiteuea, then those forces can't be used against me in my drive for Pago Pago. If my drive on Pago Pago is successful, I can then direct the necessary forces to deal with an isolated Tabiteuea and raid my opponents LOC at the same time.

I'm going to try and apply Nemo's question process here to see if I can come up with a smart plan. I think I'm seeing this a little more clearly. The first priority is to isolate Tabiteuea by gaining naval supremacy in the theatre. I'll begin asking myself how to do that after I run the next turn, and see how my Mavis transporting went. I'm curious to see if the Allies return to Tabiteuea or continue to await developments rather than force their own will.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Pretty sure the guns change with the A6M3a. better hit percentage.

Pax, you're killing me, you know that right?

Sorry! The change is incremental, but it does seem to make a difference in my games. Of course, it is nothing compared to getting the George. You have PDU ON, correct?

George with good pilots can stand up with anything until late war Mustangs arrive. Firepower is a great equalizer and the George has firepower.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

You have PDU ON, correct?

Sigh, no it's a PDU off game. I won't be getting many of the goodies in numbers I'd like. I'm stuck with a little of everything I'm afraid.

Keep it up Pax, eventually you'll say something that doesn't depress me. [:D]

[PaxMondo]

Then, forget the George and the Shinden. You have too few groups that will upgrade to either one, even though they are both good planes.

Setup your IJN R&D for the Sam. They will take forever to repair, but really nothing else on the IJN side is really going to impact much. May as well work on something that will matter. And you may get lucky (a hundred times) and your R&D may repair early. It could happen!

IJA side, same for the Frank. Most groups will upgrade to it, so setup your IJA R&D for it.

I'm not convinced that any other planes will really impact your game that much. And even these two are just ok, the reason you need them is what they replace is really poor (Zero's) or just barely surviving (Tojo's).

[SqzMyLemon]

Thanks Pax.

I think when I get home I'll be spending a little time reviewing my R&D after the Sen Baku debacle. Just to make sure what to expect. Ignore Nemo at your peril, he suggested as much way back when and I thought I'd had it covered. I obviously was a little too sloppy. I don't expect to last that long though [:D]. As you say, you never know though!

[PaxMondo]

I'm playing Downfall right now.  Properly done, the HI is a tough nut to crack.  Sam/Franks are good.  Shinden/Karyu would be nice but PDU OFF really limits them.  I think with the Sam/Frank you will ok.  Enough fighter groups and even B-29's are susceptible.  You need a lot of good fighters, good pilots, and a huge store of HI to keep producing planes.  Put up +500 fighters with 60-70 skill pilots over a target and you will be able to seriously deplete any B-29 attack.