1.04 The Wolf and the Bear (no Gids)

[Tarhunnas]

OOB for turn 102. It is very interesting to compare the numbers with the numbers given by Glantz for the summer of 1943. Glantz figure is surprisingly high for july 1943, bit if it is correct, then the German army in this AAR is 500,000 men below Glantz figures, and that is in a very successful campaighn where the German army has not lost an entire army at Stalingrad! This suggests to me that if these numbers are correct, then WITE seriously underestimates German recuperative powers in early 1943!

A link to Glantz paper and further discussion can be found in this thread.

[Lieste]

With only 63% in the East, the OOB is only 2194290... so you are 'too strong' by 710000 more or less.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Lieste

With only 63% in the East, the OOB is only 2194290... so you are 'too strong' by 710000 more or less.

Nope, read the paper. The number is the 63% that are in the east! I was wondering about that too, but when you read the paper, it is clear that the numbers Glantz give in the table are the actual numbers on the east front.

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: Tarhunnas

ORIGINAL: Lieste

With only 63% in the East, the OOB is only 2194290... so you are 'too strong' by 710000 more or less.

Nope, read the paper. The number is the 63% that are in the east! I was wondering about that too, but when you read the paper, it is clear that the numbers Glantz give in the table are the actual numbers on the east front.

Just to double check, in "When Titans Clashed" Glantz gives a figure of 3,403,000 Germans on the Eastern Front for July 1943. To be true, he gives a figure of 2,732,000 for April, and considering it's still May, I might see a massive influx the next few turns, but somehow I doubt it... [;)].

Actually, the jump in Glantz numbers from April to May of almost 700,000 men is kind of suspicious I admit.

[ComradeP]

I've posted this a while ago on the tester forum and I recall posting it on this forum too.

Contrary to what I stated, I seem to recall including at least some of the manpower in HQ's as well, but I'm not entirely sure.

The main killer for the German effective strength is attrition and that you're never going to get most of those men back. Each German division at the frontline is likely to lose about 200-300 per men per week through attrition. We've had a discussion about it on the tester forum and Andy is of the opinion that if attrition includes disease and the like, it isn't too high, but the attrition losses are either completely permanent (KIA) or more or less permanent (disabled), which is why I think the figure is too high relative to what you get back, at least until the disabled pool gets over 1 million.

In order to get a general idea of how much manpower you get:

The Germans get ~380747 men in divison, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units during 1941.
~87995 men in division, brigade or regiment sized German combat units withdraw during 1941.

Net gain: ~292752 men.

I think I may have counted one or two divisions twice, but the Germans get ~704860 men in division, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units in 1942.
~123306 men in division, brigade or regiment sized German combat units withdraw in 1942.

Net gain: ~581554 men.

The Germans get ~430446 men in division, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units during 1943.
~261329 men in division, brigade or regiment sized German combat units withdraw during 1943.

Net gain: ~169117 men.

The Germans get ~544009 men in division, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units during 1944.
~439595 men in division, brigade or regiment sized German combat units withdraw during 1944.

Net gain: ~104414 men.

In just a little over 4 months, the Germans get a whopping ~465378 men in division, brigade or regiment sized reinforcement combat units in 1945. The build-up for the final offensive operations in Hungary is the most impressive in the entire war in the east, seemingly.

Only 18895 men (two units, the 167th Infantry Division and the 4th SS Motorized Brigade) withdraw.

Net gain: ~446483 men.

[Lieste]

Try plotting the data in several ways - If you treat his German Figures as values "for all fronts", and then multiply by the % in East & (1-%) for West/South et al, you get a near constant strength for 1941-1943 on the eastern front, and a steady decline over the remainder of the war.

If you treat his German figures as strength in the East, with at additional 25% to 67% over this... Well look at the two charts:

It is possible that the higher figure is correct, but it looks 'wrong', and it is possible an error was made in calculation by Glantz, a researcher or the publisher...

Don't know what the answer is, but I can't help thinking the numbers don't add up, given the lack of resources to deal with the (small) expeditionary forces in Italy and France.

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 103. June 3 1943. Clear.

The summer offensive takes off with the planned attack towards Ryazan, and a fine day for it too, with clear all over the map! Ryazan falls and Soviet arbaise personnel scatters in panic all over the steppe (displaced 6 or 7 airbases). As can be seen, some withdrawals have been made to the east to free up forces for the attack, as 4 Panzer Army shifts front unexpectedly and with precision.

Edit: If anyone wonders where the II SS Panzer Corps is, I will just say they are hiding in a safe place in preparation for a little surprise move.

[Tarhunnas]

Seen close up, the encirclement isn't all that great however. I am a bit apprehensive about Soviet counterattacks. They will break the encirclement easily, the question is, how much of the panzer forces will be trapped?

[Tarhunnas]

Forgot to mention thet the Reds have started a veritable terror bombing campaign against our airfields. One airbase was bombed 11 times! [X(] I can't complain, we have no house rules against it. Still, that's why it feels extra good to overrun them Soviet airbases. An Il-2 looks so much better with tank tracks over it! [:D]

Below some results from the airbase bombings. I move some of my airfields further from the front to make it harder to bomb them.

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 104. 10 June 1943.

The Soviets smash up the encirclement pretty badly and withdraw in force! Not totally unexpected.

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 104.

The II SS Panzer Corps emerge from the nightclubs of occupied Moscow, where they have been hiding to avoid enemy air reconnaisance, and smash into the flank of the Soviet forces at Ryazan. Once again a substantial Soviet force is surrounded! But the Reds are a lot stronger now, and I have a feeling the time for these kind of maneuvers is over... Whatever the outcome, this will in all likelihood be the last big offensive battle of the Wehrmacht in the East.

[Klydon]

You can tell Gids is learning and getting better.

In the past, he would have broken the encirclement and not withdrawn. Instead, he pulled back hard after breaking the encirclement.

Nice execution of the "other shoe" dropping on this particular operation.

[glvaca]

Great read!
Great AAR!

[Tarhunnas]

ORIGINAL: glvaca

Great read!
Great AAR!

Thanks! Glad it is appreciated!

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 105. June 17 1943.

A furious round of encirclement and counterencirclement in the Ryazan area! For the moment, we have the bear bagged, but I fear that Soviet counterattacks might turn the tables. Map after German moves.

[Tarhunnas]

OOB Turn 105.

[Tarhunnas]

And the production screen turn 105, filtered to Germany. Interesting to see that someone is still holding on to that AA gun they have nicked from the Finns. [8D]

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 106.

The battle of Ryazan is continuing on its third week. The surrounded Soviet forces managed to get a supply line open, but now they are isolated again. The German army is slowly getting the upper hand, but it is costing. I don't want to do this again...

Map after German moves.

[Tarhunnas]

Losses turn 106. June 24 1943.

[Tarhunnas]

Turn 107. July 1 1943.

Positions before German moves. At last the smaller of the encirclements is cut off for good.