Is Pear Harbor Unassailable?

[topeverest]

Over the last months spare time, we decided to playtest PBEM the Pearl Harbor Unassailable myth. This was a collection of PBEM tests with experienced Allied and Empire players determined to save Pearl or take pearl or to isolate pearl. We had interesting results as follows that we thought we would share:
• Scenario 1 - standard start (no invasion previously planned) – failed miserably every time. By the time the Empire can mount an invasion with the limited forces nearby, invariably the Americans have enforced Hawaii tremendously. Additionally, a lingering KB only has so many days of air ammo, and operational air losses mount very quickly. Within a week’s time, it is the KB is at risk of an American 3CV counterpunch. Finally, if an invasion actually occurs on an outer island (because PH cant be taken by a couple divisions as we will see), the defensive amphibious counterpulse is so devastating that the invasion wont survive. In cases where a multiple division force is sent to Pearl within 60 days of start and the American CV’s are available for counterpulse, every instance failed miserably, with the Americans taking advantage of the Pearl CAP shield and building of secondary airfields. Final outcome – just don’t do it if you are up against an experienced allied foe.
• Scenario 2 - Standard Start. Same results and recommendations as Scenario 1.
• Scenario 10 Ironman as PBEM – Standard start. Same results and recommendations. The extra forces as placed cannot affect a positive outcome before the allies can reinforce PH.

Next we massed available naval forces for Hawaii through the editor.
• Scenario 1 & 2 – all Empire CV forces at Pearl with KB. One Division Amphib force lagging KB. All other empire theater forces historical. Incremental aircraft of marginal effect after first turn. Invasion to an outer island succeeded in getting on half the time, but no airfield ever established. Empire airpower forced to retire to rearm within a week, or if split, the allies succeeded in breaking the siege through a CV combat in each occurrence. Note that while an AKE can resupply the air mission, the lost airframes cannot be replaced around Pearl. Note, we redid this with a 3 division amphib force going straight at Pearl. WOW, just don’t do it! The empire naval losses against the PH fort exceeded anything I have ever seen. Invading Pearl Harbor cannot succeed with a three division attack force (intact at time of invasion). Also isolation is not feasible without considerable luck, even with a three divisions force taking three islands in the initial pulse. The allies probably will foil one of them, and Pearl & the remaining airfields can suppress any airfield captured or built. Plus there is the issue of supply chain and getting incremental forces in. Outcome – this three division isolation has a low probability of isolating Pearl for some time assuming a maximum commitment to the chain (and away from other targets). There just aren’t enough Empire CV’s to go around to make this a viable strategy in most outcomes. Against experience allied foes, this would be a low probability win with high likelihood of strong rebuff.
• Scenario 10 – all empire CV forces at Pearl in the KB along with half of BB and CA. 6 division invasion force trailing targeting an isolation strategy by taking the other islands. Initial suppression of Pearl possible, assuming a willingness to attrite considerable aircraft. Occupation of outlying islands possible and an extended siege is viable. The substantially larger CV capacity in this case is decisive and generally thwarts any allied defensive counter invasion pulse. Generally speaking, suppressing the airfields and preventing resupply are the most important thing for the Empire to do. While we did not play this until the end, the siege probably could last into fall 42 before lifting, but there are many outcomes possible as time goes on.
• Just for giggles, we invaded Pearl with that Scenario 10 six division invasion force too. In the words of my daughter…OMFG! First, we tried invading with only small combat ships as cover, which was an utter disaster. 60-80% of the TF would be burning hulks before any invasion could occur, and what survived to get on-land was so small that there was no real contest. Keeping in mind that the amphibious portion of the invasion armada was around 150 ships, no less than 70 of the ships sunk in our attempts. OUCH! Next we threw in the big guns of BB’s and CA’s and made two hyper invasion TF’s. There was a reduction in total ships sunk by almost half, but the CA’s and BB’s mainly were sunk. The killer for the empire was that supply could not get on without going through the guns again. Ultimately, though somewhat close, the invasion failed. Keep in ming the terrain strongly favors the allied defender even after you are passed the guns. Naval losses were horrendous for the empire. Just horrendous! Equal to an entire year of heavy fighting.

So…I’d have to say that our little unscientific series of tests is a reasonable validation that Hawaii is unassailable in any normal scenario if the allied player moves to reinforce early. Even if he or she doesn’t, only a maximum attack could have an impact - and at a heavy cost.

After 30 days, the allies can move enough supply, airpower, ships that even the scenario 10 force cited above would not succeed in quarantining pearl.

Finally, we assumed the empire established bases and then conducted a long deleterious bombing campaign to eliminate the starting supply, which took 4-6 months and every available airframe outside the active theaters at start(which couldnt be done of course and torpedoed empire pilot training). It also pegged airframe losses over the capacity to replace. that said, we did the invasion one last time...and succeeded at heavy loss. Horray for cheating!

Seriously...There are far better uses of the available empire forces…but then I guess we all knew that already.

If as allies you ever think the empire might try it, the best defense is immediate reinforcement, an extra large airfield or two in hawaii, 500K supplies, and putting the best commanders you can find on the PH fort unit and the centpac and air hq's

If as Empire you ever think of doing it for real (not as a ruse), Drink six beers and sleep on it. you wont like the idea in the morning.

[Chickenboy]

Cool. Thanks for the playtesting, topeverest.

[USSAmerica]

Good stuff, topeverest!  [:)]

[AW1Steve]

I think I've found your problem. You need to find a INCOMPETANT opponent! [:D]

Maybe you need to read "Winning through Intimidation". The author recommends starting with small children and working up! [:D]

[Cap Mandrake]

What about taking Kona, Lihue, Lahaina and Molokai, Johnston and Midway and building up the airfields for a seige?

That seems like a more practicable idea?

[John 3rd]

This is what I'm trying to do in my Typhoon of Steel AAR.

Thought that taking a shot at Pearl would be fun. Problem is one has to go after so quickly, you cannot build-up the mass needed to grab ALL the objectives in one shot.

[inqistor]

Have you tried Naval Bombardment, to tame this fort?

I have made some in WITP. Ultimately it have costed me 2 BBs, but they were actually possible to save, as I could first get one of the islands (nearest was Wake), or give them air-cover (one was sunk by repeated B-17 attacks, who have 100% accuracy).

I think it have some BB guns, so it is probably not possible to fire out-of its range, but with careful setting (and lots of time) it is probably possible to eliminate it. And big shells destroy LOTS of supply.

[khyberbill]

John3, my esteemed foe, has taken Johntson Is and Midway but those airfields are too far from PH to be of aid. He has also taken Kona, Lahaina and Molokai and I have reduced those airfields to large sand traps with nightly bombardments and daily air raids-lots of Bettys, Nells and Zeros destroyed on the ground there. He did make a grab for Kauai but was thwarted and also has a token force ashore on Lanai and it is just a matter of time before they are thrown back into the ocean.

[khyberbill]

Have you tried Naval Bombardment, to tame this fort?

I have made some in WITP

I no longer have WITP on my computer so I can not compare forts, but the CD unit on Hawaii is fairly strong. Also, there are several BB's parked in a TF to complement the islands large guns as well as the 155mm's in the 3+ divisions on PH. The island is surrounded by about 20 subs, half are S-boats with effective torpedoes to cut down any wounded stragglers. It has been hoped that John3 would bombard the island. See Typhoon of Blood AAR for more details. B-17 attacks are harmless in AE against ships (I think I have had one bomb hit one ship so far and I am sure a wind gust blew it off course on its way to kill anchovies); the B-17s but have helped shut down the Kona and Hilo airfields. The only operating AF now is at PH.

Supply was a concern, but lots have now gotten ashore and John3 has to use his CV's to patrol the sea lanes between WC and PH to prevent shipments. There is now more supply ashore then when the game started. Meanwhile, with all the attention at PH lots has gotten accomplished elsewhere-like losing Broome!

[LoBaron]

Wow, very interesting test. Thanks!

TBH I did not expect the outcome to be so decidedly in favor of the allied defenders.

Probably the prerequisite has to be a successful battle against the 3 available USN CVs.
Was this - at least partly - achieved in one of the attempts?

I thought that an invasion is possible, at the expense of pretty much every other theatre,
as long as maximum effort against Midway, Johnston, etc. is also included in the op, plus
an isolation of PH for as long as neccesary and the involvement of close to every Japanese
warship, minesweeper or submarine.

[FatR]

The inherent problem with these tests is that the Allied player expects the assault on Hawaii. The key to success, IMO, is an early surprise assault. Like going for the entire India it is a gamble, that heavily relies on the enemy not expecting such audacity. Note, that while I managed to successfully isolate Pearl in my Ocean of Blood game, even though Hawaii were prepared for defense, a more vigorous Allied response likely would have thrown my forces into the sea, and losses were heavy anyway.

[John 3rd]

Well..I am coming right NOW so watch the fireworks in the Typhoon of Steel: Japan's Side AAR!

BANZAI!

[Canoerebel]

Q:  "Is Pear Harbor Unassailable?"'

A:  Pear Harbor?  Is this some kind of mod involving a Japanese surprise attack on a fleet of canoes and bateaux anchored at Old Orchard Beach, Maine?

A Part II:  Don't any of you Allied players have a nasty little habit of stripping most of the units from Hawaii to defend more likely Japanese targets?  Doesn't it give you the willies when the thought crosses your mind that Japan might invade?  Don't you think to yourself:  "If they tried this attack against my defenses in Hawaii, I'd be toast and an embarrassment to Allied players everywhere?" 

[PaxMondo]

Well, saves me from testing. I had looked at the PH CD's and didn't see anyway to get around them. Too many and too big and with forts level too high.

Thanks for this. Your daughters comment is appropriate. [:D]

[Fishbed]

Younger followers here ([:D]) may wish to have a look at two interesting AAR where they get that very dream come true, or nigh.

One under WitP, with an outstanding level of detail, the AdmiralLaurent original AAR. A very patient Japanese opponent, the kind of guy you need to assault the fortress [8D]
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=905926&mpage=1&key=

One under AE, started by undercovergeek, as a form of homage to grand achievement of the Admiral (we miss you man!). Undercovergeek didn't have the same element of surprise, and had issues with the land war once in Pearl, but ended by neutralizing the port for good in the end.
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2256151&mpage=1&key=

Both were playing against very competent opponents. Should prove that anything is possible, as long as you plan it very well [;)]

[John 3rd]

THAT is my hope! Maybe I better read the geek's account...

[dr.hal]

I read this all with interest, but can't help but wonder why would you want to hold Hawaii as the IJ player? Bomb it, hurt it, yes...but hold? At what expense? Oddly the concept of a "zero sum game" comes into play here (for all you math and political science types). There is only so much the Japanese player can do and throwing so many resources against Pearl means less to throw against the DEI, India and China....Convoys from the west coast don't need Pearl, and then there is always the east coast, where Pearl is but a distant memory! But I guess if one simply wants a very unusual game, then go for it. Hal

[khyberbill]

First days tally for John3's latest thrust towards PH (me thinks he is heading to another island but I have been wrong)





Three USAAF aces created today! Hopefully they will survive the next day.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: dr.hal

I read this all with interest, but can't help but wonder why would you want to hold Hawaii as the IJ player? Bomb it, hurt it, yes...but hold? At what expense? Oddly the concept of a "zero sum game" comes into play here (for all you math and political science types). There is only so much the Japanese player can do and throwing so many resources against Pearl means less to throw against the DEI, India and China....Convoys from the west coast don't need Pearl, and then there is always the east coast, where Pearl is but a distant memory! But I guess if one simply wants a very unusual game, then go for it. Hal

Read this thread:

tm.asp?m=2518166&mpage=1&key=

in particular posts #284, #306 and #308 on pages 10-11. Preceding discussion should also be read to understand context.

There is also another thread which you might find interesting. I'll try to dig it up.

Alfred

[John 3rd]

Your number are FAR different then mine. Fascinating...

Thanks Alfred. I will read what you have referenced.