Is Pear Harbor Unassailable?

[Nemo121]

PH has been neutralised before ( slightly different than taking it - Strategically if you neutralise its ability to project combat power OR protect combat power then it is a non-entity. ) in games both through immediate action at the game start and within the first 3 months. I'm aware of at least 3 games in which PH was neutralised ( no ability to protect docked ships, no ability to generate new aircraft to contest IJAAF and IJNAF aerial superiority +/- reduction of supplies to under 20,000 tons ).

[Fishbed]

I think the 'Geek's main issue with PH is that he wasn't willing to dedicate to the original plan the forces and the time needed to starve the place out, expecting a fast victory - AdmiralLaurent's experience showed that you absolutely need to keep pressure on the base in order to neutralize it under 3 months. If you wanna conquer it, you just can't land without having starved it to death, which means that you need to completely surround it and kill whatever may try to resupply it.

[dr.hal]

Alfred, I've read the posts and you certainly make a convincing case (are you a lawyer?) for trying it, but only if a lot of IFs take place. I see in relation to securing an auto victory, it might have its attraction. But I favor trying to keep things "real" (artificially?) in that I don't think anyone of any influence in the Japanese government actually thought it possible... Look at the opposition Yamamoto had concerning getting all (especially the Army) to buy into the attack on Pearl! But if I'm wrong about the proposition that there were no real believers in the Japanese government about the feasibility of an invasion of the US mainland, I'm open to hearing about it! Hal

[Alfred]

dr.hal,

I apologise if you thought I meant it was a realistic option in real life for Japan to capture the territory of Hawaii or that the real world Japanese personae dramatis entertained the idea. Unlike AE players, those gentlemen were restrained by real logistical, command and control, economic, political and social constraints. I was merely putting forth a "game" idea. You will note that the specific issue had been raised by the player who automatically dismissed his own idea because obviously it had no value. More than anything I was trying to show (a) there is too much "self evident truth" known by AE players which is really based on no analysis and (b) how one must assess options within an overriding framework. In short I was defending myself from the accusation of being mad.[:)]

In the context of playing the game, I can certainly highly recommend reading AmiralLaurent's classical WITP AAR. Obviously much has changed in the new iteration but just as warfare has changed considerably since Napoleon, it is still quite profitable to study his campaigns and compare them with his contemporaries. So I recommend studying AmiralLaurent's total conduct of the entire Japanese position in the PTO. Were he to take up AE, I have no doubt he would rate in the top 3 players.

AE does make it possible for Japan to capture the Hawaiian territory and to derive real benefit from the undertaking. However only a top flight player could pull it off and then it must be consistent with the overall situation. There is an opportunity cost which must be taken into account.

Alfred

[Nemo121]

As part of an overall strategy of delaying the central Pacific thrust and combined with aggressive spoiling actions in the northern and southern Pacific in order to avoid a successful Allied thrust in either of those theatres ( each of which would be rendered more difficult by the loss of prepared bases in the Hawaiian chain ) neutralising PH has value. I don't think taking it has much value in-game since the benefit of the base facilities etc is, IMO, underplayed by AE such that players can get by just fine with a Level 6 port and a lot of naval support squads to a level which is not consistent with what was realistic.

So, capture isn't a great idea and the opportunity cost is too high but neutralisation is possible with a moderate committment of forces initially and the acceptance of a moderate level of attrition to IJAAF bomber units assigned to the suppression task. The opportunity cost will be less IJAAF ability to project power elsewhere but if you fit neutralising Hawaii into a coherent, comprehensive strategy I think it could be worth it ( in-game ). In reality a whole host of other issue would have come into play to make an attempt on Hawaii less than likely.

[zuluhour]

After a visit with my wife to islands, I believe the Japanese have successfully occupied Ohau.

[topeverest]

Lots of good stuff here. IMHO, our testing suggests PH isolation is a tough nut wihtout a material editor event if the allied player moves immediately to support the base. Once the allied player works out that basic sequence (omitted for the sake of those who dont want to know), the empire player needs considerable luck to make a desired impact.

Once we open the mod option, things can get very interesting - of course.

Things that work against the empire in stock include but are not limited to:
1. no use of AKE or AE at sea (requiring some friendly base in the area to continue operations after an initial set of clashes) - and No such unit available or nearby
2. no means to replace lose airframes or pilots in the Hawaii vicinity.
3. PH AA is considerable, and the operational losses mount very quickly even if the air war goes the empire's way, making it impossible to keep the base knocked out if you managed to do it, or to get it there if you havent. It repairs about 30-40 points of total damage per turn and typically will be fully operational within a few days of cessation of bombing.
4. Allied HB / LBA can be used very effectively to harass and consume empire airpower
5. Just when the KB strength is waning and torpedo ammo is gone is when 3 or even 4 american CV's can pounce out of nowhere, typically to great effect if you carefully keep track of the losses to the KB.
6. KB cannot suppress all the airfields and cant suppress PH while supporting an invasion
7. An invasion from marshalls in stock takes 7 days minimum to get there and will be spotted by Johnston Island. By then, the american carriers are avaiable to pounce, and the KB proabbly has to retire before then to save air ammo, making pearl fully or mostly functional at the moment of invasion.
8. Players versed in the art of defensive counter pulse will make short work of any early empire invasion in the inner Hawiian islands.
9. Even if the empire gets on, it is an easy matter to keep the captured airfield knocked out with the superior bases the Americans possess.
10. American CV air ferry - transport can be utterly lethal to the empire cause.

Making the allies overcommit in Hawaii may be the best lower risk outcome in stock, or perhaps bagging a few of the incoming transport TF's into Pearl before running out of air ammo.

I am very interested in other thoughts and things we may not have tried. As Nemo stated the isolation of Pearl has IME both has a delay effect on the timing of the american awakening and limits most allied player's desires to do a long-leap invasion in CPAC (assuming the line islands are also gone). In our limited playtesting with Hawaii in Empire hands, we saw in and near Australia become the focal point of much more fighting, which ultimately favors the allied force mix. The war definately does go on. Neither is Hawaii the Empire Albatross, nor is it their holy grail.

[Alfred]

Finally found the other thread I intimated in post #19 above.

tm.asp?m=2620232

That is the Emergency Reinforcements - West Coast. The first page deals with what happens if Japan crosses the "Line of Death"(tm) but the second page comments on what can be achieved if the trigger is avoided. Japan owning Hawaii (or at the very least Alaska and Hawaii neutered) is an important element.

Alfred

[John 3rd]

Thanks Alfred. Just read the first two you listed earlier.

[LoBaron]

Interesting discussion going on here. [:)]

Personally my 2 main reasons for a PH op would be:

- conquering a repair yard deep in Allied territory which enables you to position
threatening ammounts of surface and submarine forces forward under a secure air umbrella.
This is is a doubled effect, gain and denial.

- stretching and threatening the US supply routes to AUS/NZ

Both have the same effect: Making the war easier for the Japanese in every area between
Pearl and NG. Its at least worth considering, even if the risk is high.

Thanks for all those informative posts! Keep it coming.

[topeverest]

Dont take it on lightly, and beat some haste in your effort! Time is a huge enemy in any attempt, even modding to the benefit of the empire

[Canoerebel]

In the various discussions I have seen about possible Japanese paths to auto victory, most of the comments I have seen about Hawaii indictate uncertainty. IE, most players believe India and Oz are likely routes under the right conditions, with an addendum that "Hawaii may also be another, but I'm not sure." (There are some other possible routes too, though I won't go into that here.)

I think the uncertainty has been whether Hawaii offers enough in the way of PP and opportunities to hurt the Allies, and whether it extracts too high a toll.

I'm taking from this discussion (thus far) that it seems like Hawaii costs too much (both there and in lost opportunity costs elsewhere) to offer a good auto victory path. Perhaps a very successful campaign there combined with some success elsewhere might offer enough points, but that wouldn't seem to offer a promising AV plan.

[dr.hal]

Alfred, I was aware that you were talking about the game and your analysis did make that clear. I was simply reverting back to something that is of interest to me, the idea of doing things within the game that had some element of truth in the actual war. I was only asking if you knew of any talk about the town (Tokyo!) at the ministerial level that did look at this with any serious consideration. Given what you wrote a while back, I see that it's possible to do so within the game at least, so I've been warned (in my game against Paul). Thanks... PM sent. Hal

[sdhundt]

I'm playing ROY and he took PH. He kept KB in the area for a very long time which prevented any reinforcements. I did make a few mistakes but I consider myself far from being incompetent. If KB stays in the area, PH will always fall.

[inqistor]

Thinking of it, it is possible, that Yamatos have enough range...
I have checked this Pearl Fort, and its best guns 16 in, have range of 38k, so it is possible to outrange them with Japanese 40+ cm guns, so not only Yamatos.

The nearest base, out of B-17 range would be Palmyra, so lots of supply/fuel is needed to transport there, but it is doable, just make sure you are using lots of TFs, with just one BB, to keep constant bombardment every day.

Of course Allies CVs are a problem, and they can use night CATALINAs torpedo attacks, so it will probably not be safe to use cruise speed, and BBs uses LOTS of fuel.

Also, LRCAP need only lvl 1 airfield, and with its use it is possible to keep CAP over attacked bases, even when airfields are closed. Not much help with allowing Naval Attacks, but at least Japan can attrit PH air strength.

[Crackaces]

The PBEM test and this discussion has not explored the US response of Submarines. Yes they fire duds, but it takes only a couple of hits on critical ships with the homeland so far away to put a real dent in the plan. Its a "not" equation for sure P(sub attack) * P(not a dud), but again just a couple of crtical ships carrying troops sunk would throw the whole strategy into the toillet. Just 5 very lucky attacks (I positioned US subs off Soc Trang) against full AP/AK's in my current game has thrown off the IJ game plan by 2 - 4 months.

For example, I could see those 1 BB SAG's in early 1942 running into a lucky torp or two ...and then its forever to return to a base for repair.

Also, I would assume that the Allied player would be taking the opportunity to build "Fortress DEI." Then I assume that sometime in 1943 oil and fuel reserves would run out and the Allies would have a instant victory.

Just a thought ...

[John 3rd]

Using the Yamato's is a viable idea but one also has to remember mines at PH. Bet there are bunches. Key is to take enough bases that the American gets totally isolated and THEN do you worst with PH.

[topeverest]

And success! Pearl Harbor falls to the empire in PBEM! All hail the Empire...well sort of. Specially designed a mod to create conditions to move enough troops and naval force with bonus movement TF's to attack hawaii in the first weeks. bulk of empire combat navy used to quarantine PH from any resupply. Ground attack phase lasted 62 days against stock defense without resupply. USA fell due to combat odds of 2-1 finally achieved with the third invasion, before the USA supply exhausted, though it was down to 12K. 86 empire transport types lost to the fort and 3x that number damaged. another 24 minor combat and transport types sunk by PT and subs. ~400 total empire aircraft lost to AA and A2A. 500K supply and 250K fuel consumed or destroyed in attack. 12 empire divisions, 10 naval guard units, 4 artillery regiments, and 5 other regiments committed to land combat. 3+ division equivilent ground losses. Three total invasion events were required due to massive empire losses, attrition, and length of campaign. I dont think this could be achieved in any stock game, or at least we have never been able to recreate it in stock. It also carries a huge opportunity cost for booty haul capabiltiies / late war capabilities in any stock scenario.

Still...there is just something terribly satisfying about an empire flag on Pearl.

------

Ground combat at Pearl Harbor (180,107)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 128740 troops, 1637 guns, 879 vehicles, Assault Value = 3555

Defending force 30470 troops, 777 guns, 919 vehicles, Assault Value = 99

Japanese adjusted assault: 1271

Allied adjusted defense: 634

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Pearl Harbor !!!

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
PBY-5 Catalina: 2 destroyed

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2379 casualties reported
Squads: 30 destroyed, 214 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 21 disabled
Guns lost 29 (4 destroyed, 25 disabled)
Vehicles lost 21 (1 destroyed, 20 disabled)


Allied ground losses:
15893 casualties reported
Squads: 101 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 3949 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 170 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1054 (1054 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1157 (1157 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 18


Assaulting units:
62nd Naval Guard Unit
6th Tank Division
25th Division
48th Naval Guard Unit
86th Naval Guard Unit
27th Division
47th Naval Guard Unit
32nd Division
29th Division
36th Infantry Regiment
23rd Division
46th Naval Guard Unit
44th Naval Guard Unit
302nd Division
24th Division
250th Division
23A Division
10th Division
36th Division
64th Naval Guard Unit
1st Ind. Field Artillery Regiment
Botanko Hvy Gun Regiment
8th Mountain Gun Regiment

Defending units:
19th Infantry Regiment
27th Infantry Regiment
21st Infantry Regiment
Oahu Harbor Defense
35th Infantry Regiment
34th Combat Engineer Regiment
Pacific Fleet
Pearl Harbor Base Force
Seventh USAAF
98th Coast AA Regiment
64th Coast AA Regiment
Hawaiian Dept
4th Marine Defense Battalion
804th Engineer Aviation Battalion
3rd Marine Defense Battalion
251st Coast AA Regiment
97th Coast AA Regiment
2nd USMC Engineer Regiment