Dec. 5/42:
Well, the assault went ahead as planned and it went better than expected. Losses were heavy (I expected more to be honest) and disruption is at least 75% overall, but I've established a beachhead!

I'm worried about a Chinese counterattack to take advantage of the large number of disabled Japanese squads and the high disruption, but there also isn't much I can do about it. In hindsight, I should have waited until I had a few divisions in reserve to arrive the next day after the assault and immediately reinforce the position. These units wouldn't have had to shock attack either. The Chinese are low on supply and I still have over 2700 AV in rough terrain, I just need some time to rest and recover. The 15th and 70th Division's will be withdrawn to Kweilin to regain strength and I will reinforce with the 13th and 36th Division's.
One thing I'll add. I think the Chinese should have suffered higher losses. This was a massive assault and they were inexperienced and undersupplied. I sometimes think the game is far too favourable on the defender and the combat model penalizes the attacker too much in rough terrain. The defenders are already benefitting from large defensive modifiers to AV because of terrain/forts, the attacker is suffering from large disruption from having to shock attack across a river and they are further weakened by an AV adjusted even lower because of attacking high terrain/forts once again. The defender has already reaped the benefits from the forts/terrain. The attacker is hit with a double whammy, increased defender AV followed by a further reduction to it's own strength. To have 4500 AV which should have been increased because of the shock attack, which is then reduced to 1700+ seems too steep. The enemy was undersupplied and inexperienced, that should count for something. Terrain shouldn't trump the quality of the forces involved nor the many other factors that contribute to just how effective a force really is.
How will the Chinese react? My fingers are crossed that I can recover disruption and strength fast enough to hold the position and then begin to grind down the defenders and rout them before substantial reinforcements arrive. I hope the Chinese decide to drive on Luichow, Hengyang or Changsha sensing weakness, that will buy me time and open the possibility of catching the Chinese in clear terrain. Every aircraft in the Chinese theatre will be comitted to supporting the ground offensive. I will be pounding the defenders daily and interdicting any Chinese moves to reinforce. If it moves, it gets bombed.
The combat reports follow from the two major ground operations and a screenshot of Southern China.
Ground combat at 75,51 (near Tuyun)
Japanese Deliberate attack
Attacking force 15859 troops, 144 guns, 42 vehicles, Assault Value = 544
Defending force 4718 troops, 23 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 148
Japanese adjusted assault: 423
Allied adjusted defense: 190
Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-)
Attacker:
Japanese ground losses:
388 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 33 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Allied ground losses:
1751 casualties reported
Squads: 80 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 57 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)
Units retreated 1
Defeated Allied Units Retreating!
Assaulting units:
104th Division
4th Ind.Mixed Regiment
Defending units:
11th Chinese Corps
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Ground combat at 76,51 (near Chihkiang)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 124686 troops, 1277 guns, 306 vehicles, Assault Value = 4514
Defending force 87215 troops, 595 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 3630
Japanese adjusted assault: 1777
Allied adjusted defense: 5602
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 3
Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)
Japanese ground losses:
29125 casualties reported
Squads: 166 destroyed, 1349 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 192 disabled
Engineers: 44 destroyed, 221 disabled
Guns lost 137 (10 destroyed, 127 disabled)
Allied ground losses:
3809 casualties reported
Squads: 10 destroyed, 394 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 18 disabled
Guns lost 63 (12 destroyed, 51 disabled)
Units destroyed 1
(Nice, didn't expect this)
Assaulting units:
15th Division
70th Division
3rd Division
51st Division
116th Division
22nd Division
60th Division
34th Division
17th Division
68th Division
20th Ind. Engineer Regiment
11th Army
4th Mortar Battalion
13th Army
51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Mortar Battalion
23rd Army
21st Mortar Battalion
2nd Mortar Battalion
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
Defending units:
77th Chinese Corps
14th Chinese Corps
61st Chinese Corps
56th Chinese Corps
95th Chinese Corps
45th Chinese Corps
68th Chinese Corps
5th Chinese Cavalry Corps
59th Chinese Corps
71st Chinese Corps
19th Chinese Corps
3rd New Chinese/C Corps
13th Chinese Base Force
2nd Chinese Base Force
3rd New Chinese/B Corps
