Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

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herwin
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: fcharton
ORIGINAL: JWE
[ed] But this is such a totally bizarre place to be discussing things like this. It makes me wonder. If there's that much horsepower, why ain't they at the 'Tute AI site? Or Cal Tech's? Or Yale's, or Harvard's, or Chicago's, UCI's. Michigan's, or (damn me for saying it) USC's? There's a lot out there.

Another reason, not very PC, might be that amateur forums tend to provide more cheerful and relaxed discussion than "pro boards", where everything tends to be serious, class-conscious, and sometimes defensive.

This is not specific to AI or maths, by the way, try a "pro board" about music or litterature anytime...

Francois

You should have seen the arguments in the Autonomous Machine Learning (AML) Special Interest Group (SIG) discussion board recently! (And now you know where I hang out professionally.)
Harry Erwin
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by Graymane »

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

That's one way to go. I always wondered if an agent based model with a few simple rules for each agent (ships in a TF, planes in a section) might produce some very interesting and realistic combat resolution results. But it's been decades since I wrote code and nothing at all like the stuff you're writing about.

I'd like my agents to emerge from the training and not have to be programmed in.

What part of your agents? Agents are really only going to work if they have some constraints built in. For example, fight/flight/curiosity, etc. Those kinds of concepts have to be built in otherwise your model will not converge in most non-trivial examples. Now, you could have a population with different values for each of its built-in behaviors and let selection take its course (or some other type of learning).
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: Graymane

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: mdiehl

That's one way to go. I always wondered if an agent based model with a few simple rules for each agent (ships in a TF, planes in a section) might produce some very interesting and realistic combat resolution results. But it's been decades since I wrote code and nothing at all like the stuff you're writing about.

I'd like my agents to emerge from the training and not have to be programmed in.

What part of your agents? Agents are really only going to work if they have some constraints built in. For example, fight/flight/curiosity, etc. Those kinds of concepts have to be built in otherwise your model will not converge in most non-trivial examples. Now, you could have a population with different values for each of its built-in behaviors and let selection take its course (or some other type of learning).
Sounds like the work I've done in ESS theory with genetic algorithms.
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by Shark7 »

ORIGINAL: fcharton
ORIGINAL: JWE
[ed] But this is such a totally bizarre place to be discussing things like this. It makes me wonder. If there's that much horsepower, why ain't they at the 'Tute AI site? Or Cal Tech's? Or Yale's, or Harvard's, or Chicago's, UCI's. Michigan's, or (damn me for saying it) USC's? There's a lot out there.

Another reason, not very PC, might be that amateur forums tend to provide more cheerful and relaxed discussion than "pro boards", where everything tends to be serious, class-conscious, and sometimes defensive.

This is not specific to AI or maths, by the way, try a "pro board" about music or litterature anytime...

Francois

Could just be that here on the 'amateur' forums we just realize maybe we don't know it all and are far less likely to dig in. Basically, we're open to new ideas where people who are 'professionals' in their fields are more likely to believe in the infallibility of their own point of view.

I know I don't know it all...I understand some things from a common sense point of view...IE the AI is limited to its programming where the mind is not so much. Which means I can hear your side of it and accept it as an alternative way or even the right way.

Seems that basically here we can have a discussion rather than a heated debate. [:)]
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by mike scholl 1 »

Seems like the real point of the discussion is that, as of today, is isn't possible to build an AI that can approach the human brains flexibility. Which means that for those of us interested in conflict simulation gaming, we're pretty much stuck with "scripted AI's" to provide any meaningfull challange to a player. And as scripted AI's take a lot of time to program (and designers are lazy, or impatient to start getting bucks), we are pretty much stuck with crappy AI's. [:(][8|]
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Seems like the real point of the discussion is that, as of today, is isn't possible to build an AI that can approach the human brains flexibility. Which means that for those of us interested in conflict simulation gaming, we're pretty much stuck with "scripted AI's" to provide any meaningfull challange to a player. And as scripted AI's take a lot of time to program (and designers are lazy, or impatient to start getting bucks), we are pretty much stuck with crappy AI's. [:(][8|]

Sometime in the next five years, high-end computing will match the raw performance of the human brain.
Harry Erwin
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by mike scholl 1 »

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Seems like the real point of the discussion is that, as of today, is isn't possible to build an AI that can approach the human brains flexibility. Which means that for those of us interested in conflict simulation gaming, we're pretty much stuck with "scripted AI's" to provide any meaningfull challange to a player. And as scripted AI's take a lot of time to program (and designers are lazy, or impatient to start getting bucks), we are pretty much stuck with crappy AI's. [:(][8|]

Sometime in the next five years, high-end computing will match the raw performance of the human brain.

So sometime in the next 20 years, it might be possible for game designers to get their hands on machines with really high-end computational abilities. Add a couple years to learn how to program them, and a couple more to get a good combat simulation game produced and on the market, and I'll be dead. Not very encouraging Harry.... [:(]
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Seems like the real point of the discussion is that, as of today, is isn't possible to build an AI that can approach the human brains flexibility. Which means that for those of us interested in conflict simulation gaming, we're pretty much stuck with "scripted AI's" to provide any meaningfull challange to a player. And as scripted AI's take a lot of time to program (and designers are lazy, or impatient to start getting bucks), we are pretty much stuck with crappy AI's. [:(][8|]

Sometime in the next five years, high-end computing will match the raw performance of the human brain.

So sometime in the next 20 years, it might be possible for game designers to get their hands on machines with really high-end computational abilities. Add a couple years to learn how to program them, and a couple more to get a good combat simulation game produced and on the market, and I'll be dead. Not very encouraging Harry.... [:(]

You're discounting Moore's Law too far.
Harry Erwin
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by mike scholl 1 »

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

ORIGINAL: herwin




Sometime in the next five years, high-end computing will match the raw performance of the human brain.

So sometime in the next 20 years, it might be possible for game designers to get their hands on machines with really high-end computational abilities. Add a couple years to learn how to program them, and a couple more to get a good combat simulation game produced and on the market, and I'll be dead. Not very encouraging Harry.... [:(]

You're discounting Moore's Law too far.

I just hope you are not over-estimating my life expectancy. Though given my luck, the game I'm dreaming of will probably be released the same day my Doctor tells my caretaker that the Altzheimers is total and irriversable. [8|]
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by Shark7 »

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

ORIGINAL: herwin

ORIGINAL: mike scholl 1

Seems like the real point of the discussion is that, as of today, is isn't possible to build an AI that can approach the human brains flexibility. Which means that for those of us interested in conflict simulation gaming, we're pretty much stuck with "scripted AI's" to provide any meaningfull challange to a player. And as scripted AI's take a lot of time to program (and designers are lazy, or impatient to start getting bucks), we are pretty much stuck with crappy AI's. [:(][8|]

Sometime in the next five years, high-end computing will match the raw performance of the human brain.

So sometime in the next 20 years, it might be possible for game designers to get their hands on machines with really high-end computational abilities. Add a couple years to learn how to program them, and a couple more to get a good combat simulation game produced and on the market, and I'll be dead. Not very encouraging Harry.... [:(]

They have already designed an AI that can respond appropriately to human input...that is respond psuedo-emotionally appropriately. There was a program about it on TLC or Discovery IIRC.

The way it works is to take visual and audio queues to determine the appropriate response. Still experimental of course, but just...wow.
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by Pascal_slith »

There's always ELIZA! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA

[:D][:D]
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by ilovestrategy »

And don't forget HAL! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_9000

[:D][:D][:D]
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by Shark7 »

ORIGINAL: ilovestrategy

And don't forget HAL! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HAL_9000

[:D][:D][:D]

Yeah, that is exactly what we need...a psychotic AI to play against. [:D]
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: fcharton

Hi John,

You've got to get your statboys to read Vapnik... [;)] If they get nosy, just assign them the one published by Wiley (Statistical Learning Theory), real tough stuff...

There are two ways around the problem of dimensionality.

The traditional (Soviet) one is to add artificial constraints to your problem. That's pretty much what regularisation is all about. Say, you have a huge number of parameters, but you add a lot of implicit constraints (typically small norms in parameter space, or stuff like this), which act as a way to force convergence, by selecting one solution among many feasible ones. Basically, you add small "constraint penalties" to the function you minimize, and this stabilizes the calculation.

The modern approach tries to attack the dual problem (a typical aspect of modern maths). Instead of minimising the distance between model and data under constraints, you minimize the constraints in a very large feature space (billions of parameters sometimes happen in practice), under the requiement that distance to data be zero, or below a very small value. In other word, you build a gigantic model, and select, among the many solutions to your problem, the simplest ones... (I understand this seems impossible to calculate, the "trick" is that so long the model is linear in its parameter, and you can always achieve this in high dimensionality, there are computation workarounds which avoid looking at all those dimensions).

The only thing you should never do is to reduce the dimensions... A bad model might converge, but bad models will be bad.

Francois (sorry for the hijack, people, pet peeve here).

I was using 1000-dimensional real vectors in my PhD work, but that was the tonotopic representation of sound that we have in the auditory system, and that's much better behaved than arbitrary 1000-vectors. In addition, for learning/pattern recognition, I was using normalised vectors, which were even better behaved. I also had to work with the head related transfer function of the bat head, which was a 1000-dimensional complex vector in each direction, but it only perturbed the data and didn't introduce serious ambiguities. Still, neural networks didn't give me what I needed...
Harry Erwin
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by LoBaron »

ORIGINAL: fcharton

Hi LoBaron,
ORIGINAL: LoBaron
The complex problem is how to bring an AI to identify data needed to adress a specific task if the dataset
is not present from the beginning. So how do you enable an AI to both, create and categorize new datasets,
and successfully use the available data in a way it makes sense?

I believe an AI can do this, once it is given a metric that measures the similarity between datasets. With such a distance, you can build categories from scratch by clustering available data, and create new datasets by "averaging" similar ones.

In other words, the AI processes new datasets by combining old ones. This is very close to the way we learn by experience. We never see the same situation twice, but we can spot similarities between new problems and past ones, and react accordingly.

The difficulty, then, is to define a metric to classify events (and refine it using available data). At this point, there is a bad trade off, sometimes known as Bellman's curse.

- to correctly classify complex datasets, you need to take a lot of parameters into account,
- this means your distance (and your datasets) will "live" in a high dimension phase space
- but... the higher the dimension, the further apart two average data points,
- which makes it difficult to find similarities... and therefore learn...

Finding ways to build efficient algorithms in high dimensions is pretty much the subject of modern research on machine learning.
Hi Francois; That's pretty much where LTI is, as you may have guessed from the materials I sent you. We started very simple, with only an 18 element parametric space, but as soon as we expanded them upwards, convergence was problematic, to say the least. There seems to be an inherent instability in an open model. It's almost as though learning must be constrained to a rather truncated set of conditions, with proportional limitations. And that's yet another layer. Woof!!!

[ed] But this is such a totally bizarre place to be discussing things like this. It makes me wonder. If there's that much horsepower, why ain't they at the 'Tute AI site? Or Cal Tech's? Or Yale's, or Harvard's, or Chicago's, UCI's. Michigan's, or (damn me for saying it) USC's? There's a lot out there.


fcharton:

Do I understand this correct that we are (at least partly) facing the following issue here?

The human brain does what you wrote above. All the time. Without many difficulties.
This is what we probably call a creative process.

We want or need an AI to behave/develop in the same or similar way the human brain does.

The human brain developed an ability to classify datasets and combine them based on similarities, therefore learn and introduce new dataset
packages, over a long time evolutionary process governed by simple survival and chance to reproduce.

A brain with the ability to interconnect specific high dimension datasets if needed, even if they are separated -like the ability of the human brain-, had
advantages over a brain severely limited by the constraints when it comes to datapoints separated too far to find similarities and therefore learn.
The ability to connect far separated datapoints though introduces the danger of creating "white noise" or comparision of one datapoint with all other
datapoints on every single step, and so paralyses the process.

So the human brain achieved this ability over billions of years (starting with the first neurons clustered together) and the reason it exists and behaves in the way it
does is the result of trial and error, where failure meant extinction.

So to counter developing one of the failures we have to implement something similar from scratch into a "huge cluster of neurons". That means that we may have to
artificially create catalysers for such situations, probably common in the human brain, where they developed over multiple generations of natural selection, or
at least some steering mechanism that prevents such a "white noise" situation.

This somehow looks like part of the issue JWE describes.
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by Reconvet »

with the ability to interconnect specific high dimension datasets if needed, even if they are separated -like the ability of the human brain-, had
advantages over a brain severely limited by the constraints when it comes to datapoints separated too far to find similarities and therefore learn.
The ability to connect far separated datapoints though introduces the danger of creating "white noise" or comparision of one datapoint with all other
datapoints on every single step, and so paralyses the process.

Are you guys confident that it will be possible to implement biological intelligence with conventional or quantum computers? Is it possible to emulate biological miracles like the human brain just with mathematical methods? Wouldn't biological learning and biological intelligence be easier to implement with or even demand biological computers, built and working in a similar way biological brains are?

Which would lead to the question: How long do you estimate it will take to have sufficiently powerful biological computers (constructed ones, not naturally conceived and grown versions...) with which significant real life problems can be tackled? From what I've read biological computer research is still in a very early phase, correct?



The biggest threat for mankind is ignorance.

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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: Reconvet
with the ability to interconnect specific high dimension datasets if needed, even if they are separated -like the ability of the human brain-, had
advantages over a brain severely limited by the constraints when it comes to datapoints separated too far to find similarities and therefore learn.
The ability to connect far separated datapoints though introduces the danger of creating "white noise" or comparision of one datapoint with all other
datapoints on every single step, and so paralyses the process.

Are you guys confident that it will be possible to implement biological intelligence with conventional or quantum computers? Is it possible to emulate biological miracles like the human brain just with mathematical methods? Wouldn't biological learning and biological intelligence be easier to implement with or even demand biological computers, built and working in a similar way biological brains are?

Which would lead to the question: How long do you estimate it will take to have sufficiently powerful biological computers (constructed ones, not naturally conceived and grown versions...) with which significant real life problems can be tackled? From what I've read biological computer research is still in a very early phase, correct?

Leslie Smith (Stirling) and I are sponsoring a session next year at a neural networks conference in Zurich to explore just this question. John von Neumann was thinking about it at the end of his life, and his analysis is still relevant. Such a model can't be too low a level, as some of the analog biophysical processes are known to be computationally intractable. But, ignoring the low-level biophysics--pace Walter Freeman--the processing through-put of the human brain is about the same as the largest computers currently, which means desk-top computers ought to be good enough in the next five to ten years. Programming such computers will require learning methods, which is where Francoise's points are important, and where my research is headed.
Harry Erwin
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by LoBaron »

ORIGINAL: Reconvet
with the ability to interconnect specific high dimension datasets if needed, even if they are separated -like the ability of the human brain-, had
advantages over a brain severely limited by the constraints when it comes to datapoints separated too far to find similarities and therefore learn.
The ability to connect far separated datapoints though introduces the danger of creating "white noise" or comparision of one datapoint with all other
datapoints on every single step, and so paralyses the process.

Are you guys confident that it will be possible to implement biological intelligence with conventional or quantum computers? Is it possible to emulate biological miracles like the human brain just with mathematical methods? Wouldn't biological learning and biological intelligence be easier to implement with or even demand biological computers, built and working in a similar way biological brains are?

Which would lead to the question: How long do you estimate it will take to have sufficiently powerful biological computers (constructed ones, not naturally conceived and grown versions...) with which significant real life problems can be tackled? From what I've read biological computer research is still in a very early phase, correct?


The part which I am doubting at the moment, but I am by no means an expert, is whether there is any advantage of a biological computer over a conventional
or quantum computer in case it is constructed and not developed through some kind of evolutionary control mechanism.

Our intelligence was shaped by tackling challenges on a biological level to ensure survival and reproduction. Not because there is a background mechanism driving any biological entity
in that direciton, but simply because those entities without such a drive have long gone extinct.
Seen form this POV our intelligence is only one of many solutions to the problems of survival. Others are stronger muscles, higher reproduction rate, better energy conservation,
sharper teeth, longer legs, better camouflage, you name it.

The bottom line is, our intelligence and self awareness is not the result of the task to develop a more capable brain. That is only a side effect. The task that created
this sideffect was that it was one successful approach to basic survival.

Here lies the difference between the developement of our brain and the creation of an AI.
I always wondered if this has implications on our ability to ever create an AI we would call intelligent on a way we refer to a biological brain.
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by fcharton »

Hi LoBaron;
ORIGINAL: LoBaron
A brain with the ability to interconnect specific high dimension datasets if needed, even if they are separated -like the ability of the human brain-, had advantages over a brain severely limited by the constraints when it comes to datapoints separated too far to find similarities and therefore learn.

The ability to connect far separated datapoints though introduces the danger of creating "white noise" or comparision of one datapoint with all other datapoints on every single step, and so paralyses the process.

This is pretty much the idea, but it is not specific to the human brain, and I don't think it is a product of evolution. It is a very general problem. We handle new situations by relating them to similar ones we have already seen and handled. Now, complex situations depend upon a lot of parameters, which never are quite the same twice. The more complex, the less similar, and the more difficult it becomes.

If we define intelligence as the ability to handle complex situations, it means there has to be a mechanism which allow us to simplify those situations, and find the "right similarities" that will allow us to solve the problem at hand. I believe that understanding how this "reduction" happens is the key to artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Thinking of it, this is pretty much what we'd like the AI to do in the game : it should be able to handle all the complexity in the game, yet, when assessing a situation, not get lost in details...
ORIGINAL: LoBaron
So to counter developing one of the failures we have to implement something similar from scratch into a "huge cluster of neurons". That means that we may have to artificially create catalysers for such situations, probably common in the human brain, where they developed over multiple generations of natural selection, or at least some steering mechanism that prevents such a "white noise" situation.

This is another aspect. We want an AI to be able to learn, that is, to take new information into account, and improve over time. This is the steering mechanism. This one is perhaps the best understood of all AI features. In neural networks, you do it by feeding the questions one by one, looking at the machine answer, comparing it to the right answer, and slightly correcting the machine if needed. If the corrections are not too large, this can be shown to work in most cases (not just neural nets, some of those techniques are known in litterature as 'stochastic gradients').

But then, this only applies to situation where the AI can be trained by a "teacher", who knows questions and answers in advance (this form of learning is called "supervised learning"). Unfortunately, in many complex problems, you cannot have this, all you get is a large set of data (say, in the case of AE, games played), from which the machine is supposed to learn. In this case, you can still have a form of 'stochastic gradient', but the feedback is more complicated than in the previous case.

Francois
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RE: Why Programming a Campaign Game is Very Hard

Post by herwin »

ORIGINAL: fcharton

Hi LoBaron;
ORIGINAL: LoBaron
A brain with the ability to interconnect specific high dimension datasets if needed, even if they are separated -like the ability of the human brain-, had advantages over a brain severely limited by the constraints when it comes to datapoints separated too far to find similarities and therefore learn.

The ability to connect far separated datapoints though introduces the danger of creating "white noise" or comparision of one datapoint with all other datapoints on every single step, and so paralyses the process.

This is pretty much the idea, but it is not specific to the human brain, and I don't think it is a product of evolution. It is a very general problem. We handle new situations by relating them to similar ones we have already seen and handled. Now, complex situations depend upon a lot of parameters, which never are quite the same twice. The more complex, the less similar, and the more difficult it becomes.

If we define intelligence as the ability to handle complex situations, it means there has to be a mechanism which allow us to simplify those situations, and find the "right similarities" that will allow us to solve the problem at hand. I believe that understanding how this "reduction" happens is the key to artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Thinking of it, this is pretty much what we'd like the AI to do in the game : it should be able to handle all the complexity in the game, yet, when assessing a situation, not get lost in details...

The representation in the brain seems to be modular, with distance measures restricted to individual modules. The total distance is then some summarising measure on the ensemble of distances. Still this doesn't explain how bats can estimate the distance between points on trajectories in three-space. There has to be a translation of the vector of interest with one of the end points going to the origin. As best as I can make out, there is a dimension reduction of some sort since the physical representation is on a 2-dimensional sheet of neurones, but that would suggest we should find evidence for illusions in our behavioural data.
ORIGINAL: LoBaron
So to counter developing one of the failures we have to implement something similar from scratch into a "huge cluster of neurons". That means that we may have to artificially create catalysers for such situations, probably common in the human brain, where they developed over multiple generations of natural selection, or at least some steering mechanism that prevents such a "white noise" situation.

This is another aspect. We want an AI to be able to learn, that is, to take new information into account, and improve over time. This is the steering mechanism. This one is perhaps the best understood of all AI features. In neural networks, you do it by feeding the questions one by one, looking at the machine answer, comparing it to the right answer, and slightly correcting the machine if needed. If the corrections are not too large, this can be shown to work in most cases (not just neural nets, some of those techniques are known in litterature as 'stochastic gradients').

But then, this only applies to situation where the AI can be trained by a "teacher", who knows questions and answers in advance (this form of learning is called "supervised learning"). Unfortunately, in many complex problems, you cannot have this, all you get is a large set of data (say, in the case of AE, games played), from which the machine is supposed to learn. In this case, you can still have a form of 'stochastic gradient', but the feedback is more complicated than in the previous case.

Francois

This is better understood. In mammals, experience is replayed during sleep. A x20 compression in time produces the 'sharp waves', so every meaningful experience is replayed over and over. Thereafter each access to an experience in trace memory rewrites it in the direction of 'making sense'. Still, odour memories can be learned on one presentation. The activation presented to the learning system consists of the sensory afference, the motor efference, intermediate cortical and hippocampal activations, an evaluation of the unexpectedness of the experience, all emotional responses to the experience, AND the payoff associated with the experience. So there is a teaching signal. Learning seems to be Hebbian, not via backpropagation--pace Paul Werbos.
Harry Erwin
"For a number to make sense in the game, someone has to calibrate it and program code. There are too many significant numbers that behave non-linearly to expect that. It's just a game. Enjoy it." herwin@btinternet.com
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