The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[GreyJoy]

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[wpurdom]

about the "sea option"...Rader knows...He knows i'll have to take that option...and he'll be ready with the whole KB, 1000 LBA fighters and 1000 LBA bombers. My CVs will be outnumbered by 2-1 in terms of planes...whatever landing i chose he'll be ready. i think once he considered "lost" those troops at tulagi he had already decided to shift back to India again....probably already in Jan 43....
I assume he has moved his CVs back to Singapore by now...waiting for me... that defeat could really end the war...and i cannot risk such a terrible outcome!
God...i HAD to see the risks i was running...i had to play conservately and wait for better days...impatient. Stupid and impatient.

He unlikely to tie up KB in the Indian Ocean indefinitely. If in the future you localize KB at the other end of the Pacific, you can't take advantage of localizing it unless you made preparations 90 days earlier.

CR
15k AV cannot take Karachi if your army makes it back there. If he besieges Karachi and you have 7k or 8k AV plus 200k supplies (or more, if possible), he's going to get his arse cooked eventually.

Greyjoy's current plan is to hold both Hyderabad and Kaarachi. What's your assessment of his odds of successfully holding both locations, particularly without an air force?

[JeffroK]

Without knowing what the situation is, and forces available, where else on the map can you give him a poke?
 
While he enjoys internal lines, making a small "incident" either gets his attention or gives you a cheap win.
 
Even if you evacuate before he strikes back you can drain off some of his force. It also gets some experience pts into your forces.
 
PS If you have plenty of supply in Karachi, dont worry about losing a couple of hundred men getting there.
 
To answer wpurdom, unless Hyderabad is strageically vital (I doubt) his Army will wipe it aside in a day or two.  400AV in Karachi might be important.

[GreyJoy]

May 5, 6, 7 and 8 1943

My Eastern Army moved one more hex, while the "emergency Corp" moved out of Karachi. His bombers are hitting me everywhere, leaving destruction whenever they arrive. Rader has moved in more Sentais of Helens and probably a couple more fighter groups... Lost visual contact with his army corps...my recons are unable to spot them....[:@]...sweating....
few transports are moving in one after another, bringing 11 supplies to Karachi....

In the Solomons nothing more happened during the last 4 days. My CAP moved back to Ndeni along with our CL TF (Cleveland and Santa Fe, while Leander is moving back to Sydney for repairs).
His BBs popped up again near Rabaul...

[GreyJoy]

Intel confirms me again that most of the units that were prepping for TLT are now moving to India. He's bringing in everything but the kitchen sink!
It all depends weather i am able to save my army. If my army arrives safe at Hyderabad without being cut of and pocketed, then he'll have to face a 9000 AV army, with enough supplies (200k). Even if i split my forces covering the possible approaches to Karachi, he still will have to overcome against couple of very strong Army corp (say 3500 AV each), with very good tanks and (almost all) upgraded to 43 squads type.
For sure the air cover will then be my main concern...but hey, i cannot do anything better right now, so better not to whine and start getting ready for a massive land campaign.

Now if only my recon worked....[:o]

[Canoerebel]

Movement through non-road desert hexes will be very slow.  With the troops you have in reserve in and near Karachi, he's not going to be able to get behind you with enough to prevent you from retiring to safety.
 
If he indeed comes back at Karachi with everything he has, he's going to be in for a world of hurt.  He's putting a massive army in harm's way, where it will be difficult for him to extract it when the time comes.  If he is unable to take Hyderabad, he won't be able to rail transport his units out when he is ready to retreat.  Can you imagine a massive Japanese army stuck that far forward? 
 
That makes Hyderabad a key hex.  If you can win the game of maneuver and feint so that he can't take it, or so that he's isolated if he does, you win the war right there.
 
But you've got to have a credible airforce at Karachi.  You need 4EB and fighters.
 
If rader is really coming, the war will be lost in India for him if you can pummel him from the air.  The Solomons have been a wonderful meatgrinder, but the real thing is India if he's really trying something there.
 
And if you can pour additional troops into Aden and then Karachi over coming weeks, so that the odds turn even worse for him...ouch for rader!

[Crackaces]

The only difference between Stalingrad and this maneuver .. is that it does not snow here [8D] Wow to hve so many troops cutoff so far away and the other troops stuck in the Solomons it does seem like a last gasp at a instant victory .. a quick fireworks show and then destruction ...

In reading AAR's it seems that there is an extreme risk to go for the instant victory in that collapse happends even faster after the attempt fails. I sure hope this does not end like the 8-ball/CR contest ...[8|]

[Canoerebel]

Another way of "reconning" a hex is to assign bombers to target the hex.  IIRC, the bombers won't accept the target, or won't fly anyway, if there aren't any troops in the hex.  That might help you find out if there are any troops threatening your flank.
 
If there isn't a sizeable IJ army sneaking across the desert from Jodpur, you should be good.

[Crackaces]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Another way of "reconning" a hex is to assign bombers to target the hex.  IIRC, the bombers won't accept the target, or won't fly anyway, if there aren't any troops in the hex.  That might help you find out if there are any troops threatening your flank.

If there isn't a sizeable IJ army sneaking across the desert from Jodpur, you should be good.

Just for my knowledge, I understand the mission might be cancelled because of weather, they just decide to play cards [morale low], or no ground attack mission exists ... I have never seen the reason why just the "mission cancelled" in the animation. Is there a place to look in Combat Reports that I am missing?

[Canoerebel]

In the old WitP, the computer wouldn't let you target a hex that didn't have enemy troops.  IE, when you clicked on the hex to target, nothing would happen. 
 
I can't recall if the same routine happens in AE, but if it doesn't, I do know that your bombers won't fly against an empty hex.  They'll just stay home.  No mission flown.  (Now, sometimes a mission gets scrubbed because of bad weather, poor leader, fatigue, whatever, so you have to evaluate the failure to fly pretty carefully - is it because there's no enemy troops in the hex or because my bombers just happened not to fly?)

[GreyJoy]

Guys, i had ordered to recon "specific" hexes but so far with no results. The following turn the order panel of the squadron were set to default...

I cannot think that he really stopped his movements and got back to Multan after having massed all those units back in India...so his army must be flanking mine somewhere...but i have to find where it is!

Hyderabad can, imho, be defended against a 15k AV army provided that i have enough supplies and a little bit of air cover...my Army is strong and my crack divisions (AUS and BRIT) are very experienced, giving a good hand to the indian ones. However now i need to get some more supplies to Karachi cause his daily bombings are burning them pretty fast[:o]...

Will keep on tryin to recon his movements....

[USSAmerica]

GreyJoy, how many days until the Med is opened and you are free to ship to Aden from the UK, US, etc?  I would prepare for this by getting ships to the UK and US and having them already loaded up with as much supply as you can possibly haul from those bases.  The first turn the path is open, you can get them underway for Aden.  Once at Aden, don't bother to unload.  Break them up into TF's that are small enough to dock at Karachi and unload there, and then get them moving every couple of days, allowing just enough time between them for the previous TF to finish unloading at Karachi.  You should be able to quickly pump a million supply into Karachi.  That would allow your troops in India to hold out for a VERY long time.

Meanwhile, you can have LCU's and air groups transferring to Aden via off map movement from the East US and UK, which doesn't require ships.  Once your big supply dump at Karachi is completed, your troops and air groups will start arriving at Aden and you can then move from there with the ships that hauled supply across the Atlantic and Med.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: USS America

GreyJoy, how many days until the Med is opened and you are free to ship to Aden from the UK, US, etc?  I would prepare for this by getting ships to the UK and US and having them already loaded up with as much supply as you can possibly haul from those bases.  The first turn the path is open, you can get them underway for Aden.  Once at Aden, don't bother to unload.  Break them up into TF's that are small enough to dock at Karachi and unload there, and then get them moving every couple of days, allowing just enough time between them for the previous TF to finish unloading at Karachi.  You should be able to quickly pump a million supply into Karachi.  That would allow your troops in India to hold out for a VERY long time.

Meanwhile, you can have LCU's and air groups transferring to Aden via off map movement from the East US and UK, which doesn't require ships.  Once your big supply dump at Karachi is completed, your troops and air groups will start arriving at Aden and you can then move from there with the ships that hauled supply across the Atlantic and Med.

I'm already sending all the non indispensable ships to UK to get loaded with supplies. It takes some time tough but for mid June i should be ready with something like 5/600k supplied loaded up and ready to be transfered, along with 3 divisions, several armoured units and artillery ones....however to arrive at Karachi we need the air cover, you know...if not his 200 Netties and 500 Helens will simply torn apart my transports....

[Xargun]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

In the old WitP, the computer wouldn't let you target a hex that didn't have enemy troops.  IE, when you clicked on the hex to target, nothing would happen. 

This seems to be still true in AE.

Xargun

[GreyJoy]

May 09, 10 1943

My eastern army moved another hex while the "emergency force" is positioning on the secondary northern road. No sign of Rader's army....[&:]

But more "no-news" are bothering now...Last turn there were still 333 ships at Rabaul....0 (ZERO) today....DL 9/11...so it's a good one...where the **** has he moved 300 ships!?!??!!?[&:]
The KB is being missing for 3 weeks now...is it upgrading/repairing in Japan or he's planning a major operation?...i know he has many units aboard ships...a LOT of them...

Western oz? is he really trying to invade now?!!?...a massive landing at Karachi?....Hawaii?!!?...Paranoid?[:-]

[House Stark]

Well either he's finally launched whatever operation he planned on launching from Rabaul (probably rushed due to your 4E attack), or he's evacuating before your bombers pay him another visit. Do you have any subs in the area? 300 ships must be hard to hide, even in the open ocean.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: House Stark

Well either he's finally launched whatever operation he planned on launching from Rabaul (probably rushed due to your 4E attack), or he's evacuating before your bombers pay him another visit. Do you have any subs in the area? 300 ships must be hard to hide, even in the open ocean.

My subs are upgrading and resting right now...had to retire them en masse after the beginning of his last ASW offensive few weeks ago.

May 11, 12 1943

Another quiet turn...too quiet if you ask me.... seems like the quiet before the storm...and i don't like it...not at all...

In India it seems that he really moved back to Multan his columns...[&:] Now 94 units are in Multan with arrows pointing west...what does this all mean it's beyond my comprehension.... He could have chased me down all the way to Hyderabad....instead he (seems so) left me going back unmolested (if u don't consider the air bombings)...

At Rabaul his BBs and CAs linger there...i'm pretty sure if all those major ships are there the KB must be somewhere close...beyond my air search....

Getting ready for the "Med-opening"...ships and troops are assembling at CT and UK waiting for being transfered to Aden...

CV Essex arrived today...in the next weeks i'll start to recieve lots of brand new big toys...[:D]

The USN Training program is proceeding smoothly. I'm using all the Replacement squadrons to train my crews and, in the end, i'm pretty happy with the results. My CV squadrons are all operating with pilots well above the average.

[Smeulders]

Hope you don't take this the wrong way, but did you actually have any idea about what was in the army chasing you ?  If I'm not mistake this is a rought timeline.

1) Radar gives up on capturing India, sends many divisions of to other areas.
2) You go on the offensive towards Multan
3) Radar starts switching forces back to India

Now there are a couple of ways to explain this.
1) As you seem to be doing, Radar just thought it a good idea to stop his India offensive for a couple of months and give his troops a cruise to the Solomons and back before the final attack
2) Radar thought he'd be able to outflank you army and destroy it away from your bases. He's bringing in extra forces for the final attack, which could work because your army would be crippled in the open.
3) Radar knows he is outmatched in India and is bringing in forces for defensive purposes. The sortie from Multan consisted of weak units/engineers/etc.... He knew your recon was bad due to a lack of airfields and tried to bluff you with the amount of units.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was 3, but I'm not going to blame you for retreating. You didn't have any way of telling 2 and 3 apart so the retreat was the prudent move. However, right now it's looking more and more like that was the case. His bombing is giving him very good recon and Radar decided to give up the chase. Your retreating army is almost certainly too strong to be defeated in the open by Radar's (Doesn't mean that you could have taken Multan though, he'll have high forts there) I don't think you should worry about an attack on your bases too much.

[GreyJoy]

We moved a 250 CAP umbrella at Lunga for tomorrow. 4 DDs will try to sweep his CMs that are clearly creating some "Devil's Gardens" in the Solomons. These DDs will retire at Lunga after the night mission and they could be used as bait for another CAP Trap for his bombers set on naval attack.
However it's clear that Rader, after the last Rabaul raid has decided not to risk anymore his ships keeping them too close to the front. Most of his shippings went away from the theatre and i'm suspecting he's re-deploying most of his LCUs (decreasing numbers of LCU seen in Rabaul lately), leaving behind a HUGE concentration of the only asset he can really sacrifice without problems: the Air Units. In fact there are at least 1000 fighters and 400 bombers still based in SOPAC, distributed in a number of bases that makes almost impossible for the allies to catch them with the 4Es weapon. It's a sound strategy for Japan imho....he delays my future advance without risking anything important and he knows i cannot take the risk of a landing without having solved the "air-problem" first.
I'm planning to have 200 4Es in south pacific within the next 2/3 weeks. This is a wonderfull and powerfull weapon but it cannot be wasted on a base where are based "only" 200 fighters, while there are more 5/6 bases around with the same amount of forces....have to understand how to use these guys in the best way...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Smeulders

Hope you don't take this the wrong way, but did you actually have any idea about what was in the army chasing you ?  If I'm not mistake this is a rought timeline.

1) Radar gives up on capturing India, sends many divisions of to other areas.
2) You go on the offensive towards Multan
3) Radar starts switching forces back to India

Now there are a couple of ways to explain this.
1) As you seem to be doing, Radar just thought it a good idea to stop his India offensive for a couple of months and give his troops a cruise to the Solomons and back before the final attack
2) Radar thought he'd be able to outflank you army and destroy it away from your bases. He's bringing in extra forces for the final attack, which could work because your army would be crippled in the open.
3) Radar knows he is outmatched in India and is bringing in forces for defensive purposes. The sortie from Multan consisted of weak units/engineers/etc.... He knew your recon was bad due to a lack of airfields and tried to bluff you with the amount of units.

I wouldn't be surprised if it was 3, but I'm not going to blame you for retreating. You didn't have any way of telling 2 and 3 apart so the retreat was the prudent move. However, right now it's looking more and more like that was the case. His bombing is giving him very good recon and Radar decided to give up the chase. Your retreating army is almost certainly too strong to be defeated in the open by Radar's (Doesn't mean that you could have taken Multan though, he'll have high forts there) I don't think you should worry about an attack on your bases too much.

Thanks mate!

If i have to be honest, i think option 2 was, till the Japanese Tank Army defeat, the most probable.
As far as i can tell right now there are at least 6 big identified divisions at Multan, plus all those tank units we've fought against.
I do think Rader's plan was to lure me east of the Multan river, knowing that i had to keep my stack united in order to be able to defend against his bombers, and, after having engaged my main army with a decent force that he was sure was not going to be defeated in open ground, move behind my shoulders a 1000 AV Tank corp to cut my supply path and retreat route, thus opening the very gates of a possible future land offensive against an -almost- undefended Karachi.
The mistake he has made with his tanks was brutal, and, united with the fact that i sniffed something and moved back behind the river just in time, saved my butt from a total annihilation.
When he realized he was no more able to win the race game towards Hyderabad because his bombers were unable (due to the forced very high cieling) to slow me down enough, he halted the advance and got back to Multan.

now if this hypotesis corresponds to reality, we have a strong japanese army in Multan and many more big units aboard Marus moving to India. Obviously the latters can be redirected somewhere else now, but it's clear that, unless i completeley mistaken the situation and a japanese army pops up from nowhere, my two Indian bases are safe for the moment being. Med will be open in 40 days and so we'll be able to bring in more supplies to help the struggle. But it's also clear that untill i'll be able to fight back in the Indian skies, the "status quo" could not be changed.