Wait, I can't read Cuttlefish's new AAR? - Cribtop (J) vs CF (A)

[Cribtop]

Good info, princep. I do assume that only 1 in 5 or less of the air hits are real, but hoped we got Salmon. She was bottomed out in shallow waters and hit with our improved DCs. Still, you are right that we have to factor in the rather optimistic reports of our DD skippers. [;)]

[Cribtop]

A little teaser for tomorrow...

Planning for Operation Raging Bull (the attack on Colombo) is ongoing, although Cribtop HQ has yet to formally authorize the Op. Today a crack Glen pilot specially chosen for the mission circles the harbor at Colombo and finds... nominal aircraft (12 fighters and 16 aux IIRC), 12 LCUs, and EIGHTY-SIX ships. [X(][X(] The ID screen shows hordes of TKs and a few CMs. Verrry interesting with MKB cooling its heels in 25th Army AO.

Michael, just how bad are those AA guns? Is that juicy target worth it if we use Kates only at 14K feet? At 20K feet? Stay a few days with Vals on nav attack and hordes of subs to pick off stragglers?

Hmmmm.

[ny59giants]

The AA brigade at Colombo has 72 heavy AA guns. [X(]
I would go with a 'heavy' configuration on your CVs. Pull off some Vals and replace with Kates and Zeros. Set those extra Kates to carry only bombs (yes, stay at 9k to improve their accuracy).

[Cribtop]

72! That's almost one AA gun guarding each ship. Yikes. At 9K what sort of casualties do you think I'd suffer?

My Kates have almost no losses from the war to date are are VERY elite. However, with 86 ships, hordes of TKs, and, one assumes, the British BBs damaged at Nicobar, the target is probably worth the losses.

[witpqs]

First off I'm reading both sides of this game, but I have absolutely no clue what your opponent does or does not have at Colombo.

Just remember that the Brits get lots of good AA units and, as Michael pointed out earlier, many players make Colombo a flak trap. So... there might be a lot more than 72 such guns on duty.

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: witpqs

First off I'm reading both sides of this game, but I have absolutely no clue what your opponent does or does not have at Colombo.

Just remember that the Brits get lots of good AA units and, as Michael pointed out earlier, many players make Colombo a flak trap. So... there might be a lot more than 72 such guns on duty.

I have some experience attacking Colombo when it was used as a hub with 20 LCUs... I lost 20% of all strike AC attacking 5 hex away at 9k and D3As dive bombing. That in stock game. For day 2 and 3 I had to set them higher at 15k where B5Ns still scored some 800kg hits but had the Allies put up everything they had in the CAP instead of conga-line attacking the KB at P-40's max extended range I dont think it would have been worth of it.

[Cribtop]

Great input, guys. One factor is the lack of enemy a/c to CAP and counterstrike, but of course that could change in a day if CF gets a whiff of danger. Much to consider. I've had good luck at 14K with Kates only. Still weighing whether it's worth it.

[Cribtop]

April 22, 1942

Subs

No contacts.

4th Fleet

14 Bettys from TB and the planes from our CVEs bomb the port at Canton Island. Results are underwhelming, with 1 bomb hit on a big xAK in port. The Raiders will slide NNW and try again tomorrow before retiring to Truk. They will hunt in other waters soon. The main point of the Raider TF is to mess with CF's convoy routes, keeping him honest and forcing him to use longer transits with more escorts.

SE Fleet

A Glen spots an enemy SCTF reported to consist of 2BB, 4CA and 3CL at Brisbane. Interesting. Cribtop Intel believes 2 CA, 4CL and 3DD a more likely composition but will assume the worst. Perhaps they are preparing to make a run at PM for a bombardment?

The enemy B-17s take a day off and our Zeros pull back to Rabaul to reduce FAT.

14th Army

DA Roxas forces the surrender of two enemy LCUs, casualties 2342(342) vs 30(0).

16th Army

A base force intended for Darwin is loaded up and loitering near Timor pending capture of the base, which will take some time yet even though our troops are only about 1 day's march out.

25th Army

A small scare as a TF loading up a Nav Guard unit at Bandjermasin comes under unexpected air attack from Soerabaja. 7 B-25C and 4 Hudsons miss the ships, which should be safely away tomorrow.

DA on a few isolated units at 53,94 achieves a rather shabby 1:1, casualties 114(0) vs 120(0).

A sweep of Soerabaja finds no CAP.

15th Army

The news of the day, as detailed above, is 86 ships in harbor at Colombo. We will desist from search efforts to avoid raising the alarm while planning to determine feasibility of Operation Raging Bull.

Kalemyo falls and our troops are on the outskirts of Myitkyina, close enough that the enemy air force appears to have withdrawn.

China

A quiet day here. We are feasting on enemy LCUs in open terrain daily while maintaining the stranglehold at Tienshui.

[obvert]

About Colombo. I went in during May 42, let loose about 110 Kates and 50 Vals on Port attack. Kates were on 14k and Vals dive bombing from 12k. He had two Hurricanes squads there, so about 20 fighters on CAP, plus those guns.

Lost 40 Kates and 10 Vals, but hit about 15 ships. Maybe unfortunately there were a couple of CAs there that drew most of the bombs, both sunk. Also got a sub, several AKs burning, and a few other things. Worth it for the CAs, but didn't hit volume of ships. Abandoned day 2 strike after that.

I didn't LR CAP or sweep first, which I think now was a mistake.

[ny59giants]

If you do decide to go after Colombo, I would launch two days of attacks on Calcutta to pull in his fighters. He cannot get them (Hurricanes) to Columbo even with drop tanks in one day. He would need to stop over at Madras.

[PaxMondo]

Watching with interest. I've never been able to do this successfully when in the same situation (lot'sa shipping sitting in Columbo and the KB nearby). I've always lost too many planes to AA. Obviously, I'm doing it wrong, but haven't figured out the right way .... [:@]

[Cribtop]

ORIGINAL: obvert

About Colombo. I went in during May 42, let loose about 110 Kates and 50 Vals on Port attack. Kates were on 14k and Vals dive bombing from 12k. He had two Hurricanes squads there, so about 20 fighters on CAP, plus those guns.

Lost 40 Kates and 10 Vals, but hit about 15 ships. Maybe unfortunately there were a couple of CAs there that drew most of the bombs, both sunk. Also got a sub, several AKs burning, and a few other things. Worth it for the CAs, but didn't hit volume of ships. Abandoned day 2 strike after that.

I didn't LR CAP or sweep first, which I think now was a mistake.

Obvert, can you comment on the number of Kates lost to CAP vs flak? Pax, what altitude did you attack from?

Michael, great idea, especially because 5(!) Sentai of Oscars are just waiting for a less awful weather report to unleash sweeps in Assam as part of Operation Hamstring.

[Cribtop]

April 23, 1942

Subs

No contacts. We have sortied numerous subs from Singers to lurk off Colombo as part of Operation Raging Bull.

4th Fleet

Bettys and CVE based Kates again hit Canton Island's port with little effect. Unexpected bad weather played a role, as did the fact that the CVE Kate pilots, while trained, are not the A team.

Jaluit makes level 4 forts. This is not individually important but is mentioned to give an idea of where the Marshalls and Gilberts are in terms of preparation for the inevitable counteroffensive.

SE Fleet

Manus makes level 2 airfield. Lots of naval guards load at Rabaul for destinations in the perimeter. A kamikaze xAK slowly unloads supplies at our Ndeni outpost. Tainan air group rests at Rabaul and the 4Es likewise stay home. Perhaps losing 3 B-17s out of 13 was too much for CF. Cribtop Intel is of the opinion that the recent small raids were an operational test of sorts for CF, who is still unfamiliar with Allied assets and capabilities. The monsters will be back in greater numbers, we believe. The question is where?

14th Army

Constant bombardment attacks are shaving AS from Clark Field's beleaguered garrison each day. It will soon be time for the coup de grace.

16th Army

Our main force enters Darwin and will BA tomorrow to test relative AS. No sign of pursuit at Daly Waters.

25th Army

Sweep and airfield attack at Soerabaja catches and shoots down 3 Demons on a training mission. The airfield attack then hits lots of planes on the ground, mostly damaged. This airfield is becoming crowded as other bases in Java fall one by one.

An airfield attack at Medan destroys a Vildebeest on the ground. Why didn't those torpedo bombers sortie against our invasion fleet a few days ago? Is CF training his Dutch pilots as long as possible before pulling them into the pools at the time of the fall of their bases? Odd.

15th Army

MKB sorties! Operation Raging Bull may still be called off, but for now here are the dispositions. First, 8 or more subs will loiter near Colombo. At the last minute they will clog the two hexes leading out of the port in the hopes of catching cripples and fleeing shipping.

An ASW TF of four DDs leads the carriers. Once in the Indian Ocean, these DDs, together with two DDs trailing the entire fleet, will switch roles into picket ships to avoid nasty surprises (we are particularly interested in keeping the AOs behind the fleet safe). Following the ASW TF is Tanaka Force, which will provide surface cover for MKB and stand ready to swoop down on fleeing shipping. Car Div 1 follows Tanaka Force, Car Div 2 follows Car Div 1. Behind comes the fleet Oilers, full of Dutch fuel. Last comes the two DDs mentioned above.

Cribtop HQ predicts being in position to attack in 8 or 9 days, depending on re-fueling needs. Prior to H Hour the Op may still be called off if MKB is spotted too far out or if last second recon reveals increased enemy strength (or if Cribtop HQ's Fringe Division determines that flak losses at Colombo in parallel universes have been unacceptably high). Plan B would involve a massive bluff in which we recon and sweep Colombo, hoping that CF panics and heads for the hills, thus exposing his ships to naval attacks away from the flak umbrella. Plan C is to call the whole thing off and turn for home.

May the AE gods find favor with this venture! BANZAI! [&o]

China

Bombing and marching on Sining. The KMT's various counter thrusts have all been parried for now. We are currently executing a sneaky plan that will be revealed to the readers shortly.

Industry

We need more 4E search planes to fill newly arrived groups. We will increase airframe and engine production and this will give us an excuse to post our Tracker engine screens this weekend.

[Mike Solli]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

April 23, 1942

15th Army

MKB sorties! Operation Raging Bull may still be called off, but for now here are the dispositions. First, 8 or more subs will loiter near Colombo. At the last minute they will clog the two hexes leading out of the port in the hopes of catching cripples and fleeing shipping.

Tactics questions: Do you plan on packing all 8 subs in those two hexes or spreading them out within a couple of hexes of there? Also, will they sit tight or will you have them move around?

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
China

Bombing and marching on Sining. The KMT's various counter thrusts have all been parried for now. We are currently executing a sneaky plan that will be revealed to the readers shortly.

Industry

We need more 4E search planes to fill newly arrived groups. We will increase airframe and engine production and this will give us an excuse to post our Tracker engine screens this weekend.

I need to pick your brains about China. I've never been nearly as successful there as you are. What do you think is the key to your success? Is it maneuver (surrounding Chinese units) or something else? Also, how much reinforcement (from Manchuoko or somewhere else) have you done?

Those Mavis & Emily are very nice planes, but man are they engine hogs!

[John 3rd]

OK. Got caught up on the Thread. GOOD LUCK!

You've read the recent results of my PH Raid. I only lost 15 Kates (of 99) to AA fire. The altitude varied from 9-12,000 Ft.

BANZAI!!

[ny59giants]

As John 3rd can testify to, unless you have sacrifice one of your children, then your chance of success is significantly diminished. [:D]

As you advance towards Colombo, remember to do some hex clicks in their projected path to get an idea of what weather will be ahead of you. It is not 100% fool proof, put it will give you an idea of what 'may' be ahead. Look around Colombo, to the west, and to the north to see if bad weather is coming. Don't want you to get into a good position and have your third opponent, weather, win this round of combat.

[Canoerebel]

If Cuttlefish caught wind of Glen reconnaissance aircraft at Colombo, his spidy senses should begin to tingle.  When spidy senses tingle, players look at a port, see 86 ships docked there, and immediately begin to make evacuation plans.
 
Of course, he may not have caught wind of the Glen, or his spidey senses may not be tuned.  And, in any case, all you can do as a Japanese player is give an operation its best chance and then see what happens.

[John 3rd]

My Noble Former Opponent is correct. If you REALLY want to hit him then come in from the WEST. If he decides to flee then you can have at those ships. Would leave the Kates down and set the Vals to kick some Allied buttocks...

PS: I don't think that my Spidey Sense works anymore. Is there a treatment for this? A little blue (or in this case RED) pill perhaps...

[Cribtop]

Mike Solli: There are 2 "blue" hexes out of Colombo. For now, I plan on putting 4 subs in each. Additional subs are en route and will be placed behind those 2 hexes if they get there in time. Regarding China, thanks for the compliment. No question the key in China has been flanking movements. We have put Cuttlefish in the position of Joe Johnston vs Sherman in northern Georgia (ironic given that I'm a Reb). Flanking moves forced him to either abandon good defensive terrain (Sian) or accept encirclement (Nanyang). That said, some of my success is a result of the fact CF typically plays Japan and probably is not yet fully acquainted with the value of defensive terrain in stiffening KMT units. He has abandoned some terrain where I believe he could have stopped me.

PS - To date most PPs were devoted to buying out 1 Division and 1 Regt for SE Fleet and 3 Divisions for China. So, China has been a big focus.

Update tomorrow as I am at a Coldplay concert tonight (living in Austin is cool). Suffice to say that events will require a delay in the Colombo Op as CF's search planes spotted MKB. [:(]

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Suffice to say that events will require a delay in the Colombo Op as CF's search planes spotted MKB. [:(]

Rats, although not entirely unexpected. What the MKB DL?