The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)
Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition
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SoliInvictus202
- Posts: 367
- Joined: Fri Aug 27, 2010 7:24 pm
- Location: Austria
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
so no DDs or DEs in the actual TF with the CVE?
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
Actually, given Japan's track record for invading defended beaches during the war, this was what I would have normally expected anyway.
What a massacre! He's bleeding airframes all over the map, losing lots of troops either to isolation or operations like this - it is all downhill from here for him.
What a massacre! He's bleeding airframes all over the map, losing lots of troops either to isolation or operations like this - it is all downhill from here for him.
Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
GreyJoy, your situation reminds me of the long discussion of culmination points in Canoerebel's thread recently. Basically, and this is a huge oversimplification, at some point offensives run out of steam and are no longer capable of achieving their objectives. It is at this point that the defender can transition to the offensive. The kicker is that the attacker often doesn't recognize that they have culminated, and continues to throw good money after bad. In other words, the attacker's orientation is out of synch with reality and they push a bad bet.
Think about whether this is the case in your game and what to do about it if it is true.
Also, re the subs, the combat report doesn't show everything but the CVE TF seems thin on ASW escorts from what we can see. 8 DDs make any TF much safer from sub attack. Obviously not every TF can have the luxury of that much escort, but if anything should have it CVs and CVEs should be at the top of the list.
Think about whether this is the case in your game and what to do about it if it is true.
Also, re the subs, the combat report doesn't show everything but the CVE TF seems thin on ASW escorts from what we can see. 8 DDs make any TF much safer from sub attack. Obviously not every TF can have the luxury of that much escort, but if anything should have it CVs and CVEs should be at the top of the list.
RE: REEK, rhymes with weak
Attacking force 11795 troops, 71 guns, 8 vehicles, Assault Value = 423
Defending force 18194 troops, 93 guns, 354 vehicles, Assault Value = 288
Japanese adjusted assault: 0
Allied adjusted defense: 522
Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 6)
Combat modifiers
Defender: forts(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-), supply(-)
Japanese ground losses:
12366 casualties reported
I wonder how much FOW is in play? I see only 11,795 troops attacking but over 12K casulites. The next turn will tell you how much was really committed and lost.
Its got to be big and decisive all the same!
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't so"
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JohnDillworth
- Posts: 3104
- Joined: Thu Mar 19, 2009 5:22 pm
RE: REEK, rhymes with weak
Hey CR.....If he did not escort his CVE's and took a direct course can he be reported to the kangaroo court?so no DDs or DEs in the actual TF with the CVE?
Say it ain't so GreyJoy, say it ain't so?[:-][:-]
Today I come bearing an olive branch in one hand, and the freedom fighter's gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. I repeat, do not let the olive branch fall from my hand. - Yasser Arafat Speech to UN General Assembly
RE: REEK, rhymes with weak
If it really was blind faith going in and he now realizes what you've got there, he'll pick up the burnt remains and get out o dodge. Then it's just a lot to rebuild, but not much actually lost.
Some poor Rear Admiral is going to eat his sword for this one.
Some poor Rear Admiral is going to eat his sword for this one.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
Also, the defender can act to effect/force a culmination point. Waiting for a culmination point to come into being is very passive - helping them come about can be more effective ( but much trickier ).
As to what Rader is doing: I think what was said some time ago explains it all. I commented many months ago about the appraisal of his level going on in this thread being inappropriate ( I think he's definitely better than average but I think a lot of the things being ascribed to him or more understandable when viewed with an understanding that glorifying the ability of the opponent acts to forgive one's own failures and magnify one's own victories - after all if the opponent is brilliant then being beaten around the park is less painful than if he is a sub-par player --- a lot of that thinking underpins a lot of the ancient warrior mythos which many of you may have read about from ancient times). I also stated that he didn't appear to have thought through his strategy and didn't appear to know how to use his operational success. At the time each of these three assessments was pretty roundly condemned by thread participants.
I think they do, however, show applicability to the current situation. There's no sense of a grand plan, a limited sense that the operations conducted are part of a cohesive, long-term strategy, limited sense of a killer instinct and, also, rather crucially no sense that there is any innovation in the tactical or operational employment of forces which could have yielded significantly more benefits at less cost. In the Solomons his reaction to your stance has been little more than to bludgeon hopelessly against your forces even when the previous hopeless bludgeoning hasn't worked.
Above average ( insofar as he has operational plans and strategic plans but I don't see that they dovetail well together and amn't convinced his strategic plans are fully thought through ) but not excellent, IMO ( which may not be worth a lot to you but I've been asked to comment so I will ) and I get a sense that simply because an inflated assessment of the threat he poses has been posted for so long people are now struggling to break free from the "anchor" which that assessment has become when ever more clearly the play doesn't merit that anchor.
Right now Rader has culminated and is engaging in strategically ineffectual attacks which give him a sense of operational initiative and well-being. It would be a good time to move over to the offensive and begin messing with his OODA cycles, orientation etc.
However ( and I say this objectively and not as a put-down ) I would advise you to remain on the defence for now. You are very much still learning and only beginning to glimpse entire layers of the game and PBEM play which you were previously unaware of. In addition there's a whole layer of theory underpinning play which I don't think you are familiar with and, most crucially, I don't see, in what you've written, a developed self-awareness ( as it pertains to PBEM/playing against other people in sport etc ). Since playing with OODA cycles etc requires a lot of these higher layers to be fairly well understood I think that you would be best staying on the defensive and just waiting until you have hugely excessive qualitative and quantitative superiority. Then you can afford to make mistakes and not suffer for it. I think that this ability to make mistakes without losing capability is important for you during this basic learning phase.
Already you've moved from being utterly new and really a total walkover to being able to formulate some of the right questions, understand the tactical level of play and achieve a level of competence at the operational level. That's a lot of progress in 1 game. By the end of the game I think you'll have some strategic competence and may begin to be able to properly subordinate operations and conceive them within an appropriate framework.
Next game we'll see whether or not you want to move beyond the basics. So far so good though.
Obvert,
Apologies for the bolding, just wanted to make sure you didn't miss my reply to your post. Yes, Rader can throw a lot of men and planes at anything he wants to BUT does he achieve operational success when he does so? More to the point, if he DOES achieve operational success does it feel like it serves a well-thought out long-term, cohesive plan?
Throwing troops at something is one thing. Actually being effective and achieving worthwhile objectives is another. I know you know this but I think it bears stating with Rader's current play.
As to what Rader is doing: I think what was said some time ago explains it all. I commented many months ago about the appraisal of his level going on in this thread being inappropriate ( I think he's definitely better than average but I think a lot of the things being ascribed to him or more understandable when viewed with an understanding that glorifying the ability of the opponent acts to forgive one's own failures and magnify one's own victories - after all if the opponent is brilliant then being beaten around the park is less painful than if he is a sub-par player --- a lot of that thinking underpins a lot of the ancient warrior mythos which many of you may have read about from ancient times). I also stated that he didn't appear to have thought through his strategy and didn't appear to know how to use his operational success. At the time each of these three assessments was pretty roundly condemned by thread participants.
I think they do, however, show applicability to the current situation. There's no sense of a grand plan, a limited sense that the operations conducted are part of a cohesive, long-term strategy, limited sense of a killer instinct and, also, rather crucially no sense that there is any innovation in the tactical or operational employment of forces which could have yielded significantly more benefits at less cost. In the Solomons his reaction to your stance has been little more than to bludgeon hopelessly against your forces even when the previous hopeless bludgeoning hasn't worked.
Above average ( insofar as he has operational plans and strategic plans but I don't see that they dovetail well together and amn't convinced his strategic plans are fully thought through ) but not excellent, IMO ( which may not be worth a lot to you but I've been asked to comment so I will ) and I get a sense that simply because an inflated assessment of the threat he poses has been posted for so long people are now struggling to break free from the "anchor" which that assessment has become when ever more clearly the play doesn't merit that anchor.
Right now Rader has culminated and is engaging in strategically ineffectual attacks which give him a sense of operational initiative and well-being. It would be a good time to move over to the offensive and begin messing with his OODA cycles, orientation etc.
However ( and I say this objectively and not as a put-down ) I would advise you to remain on the defence for now. You are very much still learning and only beginning to glimpse entire layers of the game and PBEM play which you were previously unaware of. In addition there's a whole layer of theory underpinning play which I don't think you are familiar with and, most crucially, I don't see, in what you've written, a developed self-awareness ( as it pertains to PBEM/playing against other people in sport etc ). Since playing with OODA cycles etc requires a lot of these higher layers to be fairly well understood I think that you would be best staying on the defensive and just waiting until you have hugely excessive qualitative and quantitative superiority. Then you can afford to make mistakes and not suffer for it. I think that this ability to make mistakes without losing capability is important for you during this basic learning phase.
Already you've moved from being utterly new and really a total walkover to being able to formulate some of the right questions, understand the tactical level of play and achieve a level of competence at the operational level. That's a lot of progress in 1 game. By the end of the game I think you'll have some strategic competence and may begin to be able to properly subordinate operations and conceive them within an appropriate framework.
Next game we'll see whether or not you want to move beyond the basics. So far so good though.
Obvert,
Apologies for the bolding, just wanted to make sure you didn't miss my reply to your post. Yes, Rader can throw a lot of men and planes at anything he wants to BUT does he achieve operational success when he does so? More to the point, if he DOES achieve operational success does it feel like it serves a well-thought out long-term, cohesive plan?
Throwing troops at something is one thing. Actually being effective and achieving worthwhile objectives is another. I know you know this but I think it bears stating with Rader's current play.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Well, that's that settled then.
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
Obvert,
Apologies for the bolding, just wanted to make sure you didn't miss my reply to your post. Yes, Rader can throw a lot of men and planes at anything he wants to BUT does he achieve operational success when he does so? More to the point, if he DOES achieve operational success does it feel like it serves a well-thought out long-term, cohesive plan?
Throwing troops at something is one thing. Actually being effective and achieving worthwhile objectives is another. I know you know this but I think it bears stating with Rader's current play.
I'm completely with you on this one after seeing that this was a complete tactical blunder caused most likely by some combination of hubris and lack of a current strategic plan.
My guess would be that this game gets a lot more quiet for a while after this affair has finished. I think your assessment of Rader's long-term play is fairly accurate for this game. It's not that there wasn't a plan, but that it seems there was doubt in the plan when the most was at stake. If he had pushed through early enough and managed to take Karachi, we'd most likely be talking about a ground war in Australia right now.
If he doesn't shift to the defensive now and use the extra Divisions from China to set up for 44-46, then he'll be in trouble. I'd say for GJ now, it is the time to make sure he doesn't have leisure to easily set up those defenses. To set a clear multi-campaign offensive roadmap for the next year and get the pieces in place to make it happen.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
I've written a long post but lost it when i posted it 
Thanks guys for all your comments and thanks to Nemo for the long exaustive and explanation post!
My CVEs were escorted only by SCs cause i didn't have any more DDs to spare at SF...they were preceded by an ASW TF with 3DDs and 1 APD
Rader abbandoned his troops on the beaches...those poor bastards have been all wiped out during the next two days (18,19 July 1943). he simply fled with everything, but he left behind....say what?!...a BB TF composed by BB Kongo and Haruna...those very same BBs that ate more than 150 500lb bombs at Rabaul 3 months ago....how these two beasts can already be 100% operative is beyond my comprehension...[&:]
CL Perth came close and at 3000 yards found the jap BBs that crossed the T....few hits of 360mm and my ships were on the bottom... pity!
My B-25s at Shamrya took off and, escorted by P-400 and P-40Ks scored some hits against the fleeing invasion force...there was a little LRCAP by jap CV but we managed to get through...
Our subs were in good position and....say what!?...DUD Torp on the Soryu....[:@][:@][:@] Weren't they supposed to get better!?!??!
Anyway the invasion is repelled...and our 3 CVs+2CVLs will move closer...just to be sure...
he's now preparing something in the Solomons....LOTS of subs coming in from north....sniff sniff....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Shemya Island at 154,49, Range 3,000 Yards
Allied aircraft
no flights
Allied aircraft losses
Seagull V: 1 destroyed
Japanese Ships
BB Kongo
BB Hiei, Shell hits 2
CA Ashigara
DD Yudachi
DD Takakaze
DD Ishikaze
Allied Ships
CL Perth, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
DD Witte de With, Shell hits 2
DD Kortenaer, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Agattu Island at 153,51
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 4
A6M5 Zero x 7
Allied aircraft
B-18A Bolo x 7
B-25D1 Mitchell x 8
P-400 Airacobra x 7
P-40K Warhawk x 9
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
B-18A Bolo: 4 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 damaged
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
Japanese Ships
xAK Ryuko Maru
xAK Sinsei Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire
xAKL Nitian Maru, Shell hits 2
AK Yamazuki Maru
xAK Tempei Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CM Nuwashima, Shell hits 15
xAK Sumiyoshi Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Kosei Maru, Bomb hits 1
Japanese ground losses:
147 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Attu Island at 151,49
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes
Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 8
P-400 Airacobra x 6
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
SC CHa-54, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC Ch 35
SC Ch 41, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-59, Shell hits 5
SC Ch 44, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
SC CHa-49, Shell hits 3
SC CHa-51, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing and strafing from low level
Naval Attack: 6 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Agattu Island at 152,53
Japanese Ships
CV Soryu
CA Mogami
DD Kawakaze
DD Suresushio
DD Uruyuke
DD Katsutade
Allied Ships
SS Puffer, hits 4
SS Puffer launches 2 torpedoes at CV Soryu[:@]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Shemya Island (154,49)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 3693 troops, 54 guns, 51 vehicles, Assault Value = 303
Defending force 1461 troops, 4 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 7
Japanese ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Assaulting units:
198th Infantry Battalion
18th Combat Engineer Regiment
297th Infantry/ 1st Battalion
87th Mountain Rgt /1
197th Infantry Battalion
4th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /1
180th USAAF Base Force
4th USN Naval Construction Regiment
151st USA Base Force
183rd USAAF Base Force
XI US Fighter Cmnd
813th Engineer Aviation Battalion
48th USN Naval Construction Battalion
149th USA Base Force
12th USN Naval Construction Regiment
1/250th Cst Art Bn /4
Defending units:
25th Div /3
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
7th Ind.Mixed Bde /4
74th Infantry Regiment
77th Infantry Rgt /3
46th Div /2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Japanese Unit(s) Wiped Out at Shemya Island by attrition!!!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Attu Island at 151,54
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 5
A6M5 Zero x 11
Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 8
P-40K Warhawk x 5
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
Japanese Ships
xAK Sinkyo Maru, Bomb hits 2
xAKL Shinnan Maru, Shell hits 7
xAK Daisho Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Nitimei Maru, Shell hits 10
xAK Nissho Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
xAKL Kaishi Maru, Shell hits 8
xAK Reiyo Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
Japanese ground losses:
269 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 12 (6 destroyed, 6 disabled)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Shemya Island (154,49)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 3922 troops, 57 guns, 51 vehicles, Assault Value = 320
Defending force 565 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2
Japanese ground losses:
68 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Units destroyed 1
Assaulting units:
87th Mountain Rgt /1
197th Infantry Battalion
18th Combat Engineer Regiment
297th Infantry/ 1st Battalion
198th Infantry Battalion
4th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /1
183rd USAAF Base Force
12th USN Naval Construction Regiment
149th USA Base Force
48th USN Naval Construction Battalion
813th Engineer Aviation Battalion
180th USAAF Base Force
4th USN Naval Construction Regiment
151st USA Base Force
XI US Fighter Cmnd
1/250th Cst Art Bn /4
Defending units:
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
74th Infantry Regiment
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
74th Infantry Regiment Wiped Out at Shemya Island by attrition!!!
And Nemo...i agree with you 100%...i'm not ready yet to start the offensive....i need few more months...but sooner or later my time will come!
Won't comment on your statements about Rader's abilities compared to my own...won't be kind of me.
I just wanna say that Rader's strategy sounds fine to me (even if he has made a couple of mistakes at Tulagi and here)....he has created a strong perimeter and now he can easily sit and wait for me to make my own offensive mistakes...
Thanks guys for all your comments and thanks to Nemo for the long exaustive and explanation post!
My CVEs were escorted only by SCs cause i didn't have any more DDs to spare at SF...they were preceded by an ASW TF with 3DDs and 1 APD
Rader abbandoned his troops on the beaches...those poor bastards have been all wiped out during the next two days (18,19 July 1943). he simply fled with everything, but he left behind....say what?!...a BB TF composed by BB Kongo and Haruna...those very same BBs that ate more than 150 500lb bombs at Rabaul 3 months ago....how these two beasts can already be 100% operative is beyond my comprehension...[&:]
CL Perth came close and at 3000 yards found the jap BBs that crossed the T....few hits of 360mm and my ships were on the bottom... pity!
My B-25s at Shamrya took off and, escorted by P-400 and P-40Ks scored some hits against the fleeing invasion force...there was a little LRCAP by jap CV but we managed to get through...
Our subs were in good position and....say what!?...DUD Torp on the Soryu....[:@][:@][:@] Weren't they supposed to get better!?!??!
Anyway the invasion is repelled...and our 3 CVs+2CVLs will move closer...just to be sure...
he's now preparing something in the Solomons....LOTS of subs coming in from north....sniff sniff....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Shemya Island at 154,49, Range 3,000 Yards
Allied aircraft
no flights
Allied aircraft losses
Seagull V: 1 destroyed
Japanese Ships
BB Kongo
BB Hiei, Shell hits 2
CA Ashigara
DD Yudachi
DD Takakaze
DD Ishikaze
Allied Ships
CL Perth, Shell hits 3, and is sunk
DD Witte de With, Shell hits 2
DD Kortenaer, Shell hits 1, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Agattu Island at 153,51
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 4
A6M5 Zero x 7
Allied aircraft
B-18A Bolo x 7
B-25D1 Mitchell x 8
P-400 Airacobra x 7
P-40K Warhawk x 9
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M3a Zero: 1 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
B-18A Bolo: 4 damaged
B-25D1 Mitchell: 1 damaged
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
Japanese Ships
xAK Ryuko Maru
xAK Sinsei Maru, Bomb hits 2, on fire
xAKL Nitian Maru, Shell hits 2
AK Yamazuki Maru
xAK Tempei Maru, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CM Nuwashima, Shell hits 15
xAK Sumiyoshi Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Kosei Maru, Bomb hits 1
Japanese ground losses:
147 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Attu Island at 151,49
Weather in hex: Partial cloud
Raid spotted at 10 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 2 minutes
Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 8
P-400 Airacobra x 6
No Allied losses
Japanese Ships
SC CHa-54, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC Ch 35
SC Ch 41, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
SC CHa-59, Shell hits 5
SC Ch 44, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
SC CHa-49, Shell hits 3
SC CHa-51, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk
Aircraft Attacking:
8 x B-25D1 Mitchell bombing and strafing from low level
Naval Attack: 6 x 500 lb SAP Bomb
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Agattu Island at 152,53
Japanese Ships
CV Soryu
CA Mogami
DD Kawakaze
DD Suresushio
DD Uruyuke
DD Katsutade
Allied Ships
SS Puffer, hits 4
SS Puffer launches 2 torpedoes at CV Soryu[:@]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Shemya Island (154,49)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 3693 troops, 54 guns, 51 vehicles, Assault Value = 303
Defending force 1461 troops, 4 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 7
Japanese ground losses:
35 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Assaulting units:
198th Infantry Battalion
18th Combat Engineer Regiment
297th Infantry/ 1st Battalion
87th Mountain Rgt /1
197th Infantry Battalion
4th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /1
180th USAAF Base Force
4th USN Naval Construction Regiment
151st USA Base Force
183rd USAAF Base Force
XI US Fighter Cmnd
813th Engineer Aviation Battalion
48th USN Naval Construction Battalion
149th USA Base Force
12th USN Naval Construction Regiment
1/250th Cst Art Bn /4
Defending units:
25th Div /3
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
7th Ind.Mixed Bde /4
74th Infantry Regiment
77th Infantry Rgt /3
46th Div /2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Japanese Unit(s) Wiped Out at Shemya Island by attrition!!!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Attu Island at 151,54
Weather in hex: Light rain
Raid spotted at 15 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes
Japanese aircraft
A6M3a Zero x 5
A6M5 Zero x 11
Allied aircraft
B-25D1 Mitchell x 8
P-40K Warhawk x 5
No Japanese losses
Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 1 destroyed
Japanese Ships
xAK Sinkyo Maru, Bomb hits 2
xAKL Shinnan Maru, Shell hits 7
xAK Daisho Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Nitimei Maru, Shell hits 10
xAK Nissho Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
xAKL Kaishi Maru, Shell hits 8
xAK Reiyo Maru, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
Japanese ground losses:
269 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 12 (6 destroyed, 6 disabled)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Shemya Island (154,49)
Allied Bombardment attack
Attacking force 3922 troops, 57 guns, 51 vehicles, Assault Value = 320
Defending force 565 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 2
Japanese ground losses:
68 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 16 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Units destroyed 1
Assaulting units:
87th Mountain Rgt /1
197th Infantry Battalion
18th Combat Engineer Regiment
297th Infantry/ 1st Battalion
198th Infantry Battalion
4th (Sep) Infantry Rgt /1
183rd USAAF Base Force
12th USN Naval Construction Regiment
149th USA Base Force
48th USN Naval Construction Battalion
813th Engineer Aviation Battalion
180th USAAF Base Force
4th USN Naval Construction Regiment
151st USA Base Force
XI US Fighter Cmnd
1/250th Cst Art Bn /4
Defending units:
21st Ind.Mixed Brigade
74th Infantry Regiment
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
74th Infantry Regiment Wiped Out at Shemya Island by attrition!!!
And Nemo...i agree with you 100%...i'm not ready yet to start the offensive....i need few more months...but sooner or later my time will come!
Won't comment on your statements about Rader's abilities compared to my own...won't be kind of me.
I just wanna say that Rader's strategy sounds fine to me (even if he has made a couple of mistakes at Tulagi and here)....he has created a strong perimeter and now he can easily sit and wait for me to make my own offensive mistakes...
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
ORIGINAL: obvert
Obvert,
Apologies for the bolding, just wanted to make sure you didn't miss my reply to your post. Yes, Rader can throw a lot of men and planes at anything he wants to BUT does he achieve operational success when he does so? More to the point, if he DOES achieve operational success does it feel like it serves a well-thought out long-term, cohesive plan?
Throwing troops at something is one thing. Actually being effective and achieving worthwhile objectives is another. I know you know this but I think it bears stating with Rader's current play.
I'm completely with you on this one after seeing that this was a complete tactical blunder caused most likely by some combination of hubris and lack of a current strategic plan.
My guess would be that this game gets a lot more quiet for a while after this affair has finished. I think your assessment of Rader's long-term play is fairly accurate for this game. It's not that there wasn't a plan, but that it seems there was doubt in the plan when the most was at stake. If he had pushed through early enough and managed to take Karachi, we'd most likely be talking about a ground war in Australia right now.
If he doesn't shift to the defensive now and use the extra Divisions from China to set up for 44-46, then he'll be in trouble. I'd say for GJ now, it is the time to make sure he doesn't have leisure to easily set up those defenses. To set a clear multi-campaign offensive roadmap for the next year and get the pieces in place to make it happen.
I'm trying to do that mate.... As said: India, Solomons, NW OZ (which is being built) and minor advances in Gilberts and NOPAC (here mainly with a bombing campaign for the moment)...
I'd really need a couple of lucky shot now...a favourable naval battle between BBs...or a sub-CV encounter...something like that....but Rader isn't giving me these opportunities....or when he did i wasn't ready to catch them....
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RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
Also, the defender can act to effect/force a culmination point. Waiting for a culmination point to come into being is very passive - helping them come about can be more effective ( but much trickier ).
As to what Rader is doing: I think what was said some time ago explains it all. I commented many months ago about the appraisal of his level going on in this thread being inappropriate ( I think he's definitely better than average but I think a lot of the things being ascribed to him or more understandable when viewed with an understanding that glorifying the ability of the opponent acts to forgive one's own failures and magnify one's own victories - after all if the opponent is brilliant then being beaten around the park is less painful than if he is a sub-par player --- a lot of that thinking underpins a lot of the ancient warrior mythos which many of you may have read about from ancient times). I also stated that he didn't appear to have thought through his strategy and didn't appear to know how to use his operational success. At the time each of these three assessments was pretty roundly condemned by thread participants.
I think they do, however, show applicability to the current situation. There's no sense of a grand plan, a limited sense that the operations conducted are part of a cohesive, long-term strategy, limited sense of a killer instinct and, also, rather crucially no sense that there is any innovation in the tactical or operational employment of forces which could have yielded significantly more benefits at less cost. In the Solomons his reaction to your stance has been little more than to bludgeon hopelessly against your forces even when the previous hopeless bludgeoning hasn't worked.
Above average ( insofar as he has operational plans and strategic plans but I don't see that they dovetail well together and amn't convinced his strategic plans are fully thought through ) but not excellent, IMO ( which may not be worth a lot to you but I've been asked to comment so I will ) and I get a sense that simply because an inflated assessment of the threat he poses has been posted for so long people are now struggling to break free from the "anchor" which that assessment has become when ever more clearly the play doesn't merit that anchor.
Right now Rader has culminated and is engaging in strategically ineffectual attacks which give him a sense of operational initiative and well-being. It would be a good time to move over to the offensive and begin messing with his OODA cycles, orientation etc.
However ( and I say this objectively and not as a put-down ) I would advise you to remain on the defence for now. You are very much still learning and only beginning to glimpse entire layers of the game and PBEM play which you were previously unaware of. In addition there's a whole layer of theory underpinning play which I don't think you are familiar with and, most crucially, I don't see, in what you've written, a developed self-awareness ( as it pertains to PBEM/playing against other people in sport etc ). Since playing with OODA cycles etc requires a lot of these higher layers to be fairly well understood I think that you would be best staying on the defensive and just waiting until you have hugely excessive qualitative and quantitative superiority. Then you can afford to make mistakes and not suffer for it. I think that this ability to make mistakes without losing capability is important for you during this basic learning phase.
Already you've moved from being utterly new and really a total walkover to being able to formulate some of the right questions, understand the tactical level of play and achieve a level of competence at the operational level. That's a lot of progress in 1 game. By the end of the game I think you'll have some strategic competence and may begin to be able to properly subordinate operations and conceive them within an appropriate framework.
Next game we'll see whether or not you want to move beyond the basics. So far so good though.
Obvert,
Apologies for the bolding, just wanted to make sure you didn't miss my reply to your post. Yes, Rader can throw a lot of men and planes at anything he wants to BUT does he achieve operational success when he does so? More to the point, if he DOES achieve operational success does it feel like it serves a well-thought out long-term, cohesive plan?
Throwing troops at something is one thing. Actually being effective and achieving worthwhile objectives is another. I know you know this but I think it bears stating with Rader's current play.
I do agree however that if rader had pushed its strategy to its very deep limit he could have easily taken Karachi in summer 42 and now the war would be much much different.... but, even if i was not prepared to play his kind of game, i think he has shown that he had a good plan in his mind and that plan will surely make him be in a better position than his RL japanese counterparts, which is already a victory for Japan
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
i think he has shown that he had a good plan in his mind and that plan will surely make him be in a better position than his RL japanese counterparts, which is already a victory for Japan
My assessment is that he doesn't have what constitutes a "good" plan in his mind. Yours is that he does. Well, we can agree to disagree.
As to the strategy I ( and I believe Obvert ) are discussing. We aren't limiting it to his push on India. That was one thrust. His strategy since then has been rather unclear and that's where a lot of the issues that have been highlighted became very clear.
If he doesn't shift to the defensive now and use the extra Divisions from China to set up for 44-46, then he'll be in trouble. I'd say for GJ now, it is the time to make sure he doesn't have leisure to easily set up those defenses. To set a clear multi-campaign offensive roadmap for the next year and get the pieces in place to make it happen.
Aye, the really interesting question is which of Rader or Greyjoy will come up with a cohesive plan first. Rader has experience but hasn't realised he has reached the end point of meaningful offensive operations ( although the sheer extent of this disaster may help him realise that - silver lining and all that ) while Greyjoy will have to battle inexperience and his lack of confidence vis a vis Rader ( IMO he gives him too much credit/respect e.g. "he's outmanoeuvred me, again" etc etc ) AND the fact that offensive operations are a bit more difficult.
My money is on Rader stabilising for a strong defence before the offensives get rolling but only because I think it will take too long for them to co-ordinate and commence. It is all a learning process though.
John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.
Well, that's that settled then.
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House Stark
- Posts: 184
- Joined: Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:30 pm
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
I'm not sure if sending a few carriers only is a good idea. Rader should have at least 9 CVs if not more, plus some CVLs. I'm no expert but thats what, something like ~800 aircraft max? You've seen a few in the Solomons, and Kaga was hit recently, but might he use a damaged Kaga, or sprint the Solomons carriers across the Pacific for an ambush? Even he must realize that he'll need numbers for a carrier battle, and probably isn't going to want to fight on even terms. At the very least I'd assume he'd have the Solomons carriers headed north to try to intercept cripples from an Alaska fight headed back towards Pearl/West Coast.
Then again, he has a lot more to lose in a carrier battle then you. If he sinks your entire CV fleet you've still got the original six, and would replace losses by the end of the year. And given his pilot quality, it's unlikely he could get such a one sided result unless he had an extreme advantage in numbers, an 8-hex attack, or several sub hits before the engagement.
Then again, he has a lot more to lose in a carrier battle then you. If he sinks your entire CV fleet you've still got the original six, and would replace losses by the end of the year. And given his pilot quality, it's unlikely he could get such a one sided result unless he had an extreme advantage in numbers, an 8-hex attack, or several sub hits before the engagement.
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
And Nemo...i agree with you 100%...i'm not ready yet to start the offensive....i need few more months...but sooner or later my time will come!
Won't comment on your statements about Rader's abilities compared to my own...won't be kind of me.
I just wanna say that Rader's strategy sounds fine to me (even if he has made a couple of mistakes at Tulagi and here)....he has created a strong perimeter and now he can easily sit and wait for me to make my own offensive mistakes...
If you don't already have theater campaign plans in motion you may want to consider that you can use Rader's earlier successes against him. Some would think that he is over extended and his campaign in the Solomons has bled him plenty.
His forces in India/Burma are only of value if you decide to take them on - you don't really need the resources. Your success in the Solomon's has the makings of a good springboard for further campaign to cut/threaten Japanese SLOC's, and it is a remote enough threat axis to make reacting to a second campaign in a second theater difficult to coordinate.
You have drawn blood in the Aleutians, they are close to Allied supply centers and combat forces, an offensive campaign in this theater renders the bulk of his defensive perimeter irrelevant, the harsh conditions create system damage on his numerically fewer combat units in a greater proportion, the norther approach to the HI's are far removed from the Solomon theater, and the logistical details to begin a campaign in this theater can be put together more quickly than in other areas. You may want to consider a campaign from the north - just my 2 cents.
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
and Reek the Sneak, remember what I said about mass, not dribblets (well, probably Heinz and a lot of others said it first)? You THREW the Perth and those DDs away as sure as my name is Bolton. Do...or not do, go or don't go; but stop with all the dribblets here and droplets there. Mass and STRIKE (with an objective in mind)...preferably where he does not expect you to. Preferably at multiple, widely separated points timed to put him on the horns of a dilema as where he will attempt to intevene. Nothing is more gratifying than watching the KB charge all over the Pacific, only to arrive and find a new fire breaking out on the other side of the Japanese perimeter. Well, maybe flaying a persons toe is more fun......
For wasting the Perth, you owe me a toe, Reek. Now get in there and let's see another good head count or I'll make it two. Unleash the dogs of war on those chumps trespassing on Tulagi.
For wasting the Perth, you owe me a toe, Reek. Now get in there and let's see another good head count or I'll make it two. Unleash the dogs of war on those chumps trespassing on Tulagi.
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
i'll just butt in here to note that BBs (and CAs too) can often shrug off a 500lb bomb hit, which won't penetrate main turret, deck or side armor, or spill the captain's coffee (though radar & AA weapons are easily damaged). Rader obviously felt that these ships were ready for operations. they might not have been at 100% all-round, but they weren't no burnt-out hulks!ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
a BB TF composed by BB Kongo and Haruna...those very same BBs that ate more than 150 500lb bombs at Rabaul 3 months ago....how these two beasts can already be 100% operative is beyond my comprehension...
kudos to your Shemya defense forces - both air & ground - they kicked some serious asterisks there, thanks to your foresight in keeping them well-supplied, building up their forts, & reacting quickly w/ air-transported reinforcements.
but i don't understand those posters who demand you wipe out the remaining enemy LCUs at Tulagi. Ain't it to your advantage to leave them alone for the present? they can't hurt you, if you eliminate them you'll allow the withdrawn elements to rebuild to full strength. I don't see the need to land-attack these remnants, until the time that your own Tulagi forces are needed elsewhere.
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
ORIGINAL: Nemo121
i think he has shown that he had a good plan in his mind and that plan will surely make him be in a better position than his RL japanese counterparts, which is already a victory for Japan
My assessment is that he doesn't have what constitutes a "good" plan in his mind. Yours is that he does. Well, we can agree to disagree.
As to the strategy I ( and I believe Obvert ) are discussing. We aren't limiting it to his push on India. That was one thrust. His strategy since then has been rather unclear and that's where a lot of the issues that have been highlighted became very clear.
Yes Nemo, no problem if we disagree for once[:)]. However if you consider what Rader had achieved till the "Tulagi mistake" was pretty astonishing (clearly also due to the fact that i was completeley unprepared to play against an experienced player). He had wiped out the whole China safe for Chungking, the whole India safe for Hyderabad and Karachi and had pushed me out of PM when i tried to invade it, inflicting me heavy losses in terms of ground troops(2 divisions) and in terms of naval assets (25 AP/AKs, 1 CVE, 10 Cruisers and more DDs). Then he went overconfident and made the Tulagi mistake and everything changed.
I bet that if he did simply let me live at Tulagi and limited himself in estabilishing a strong perimeter at Bouganville, now our considerations about his overall strategy could be different. We're now past the middle of 1943 and the allies are nowhere close to the RL positions, both on terms of ground conquers (think about India and China) and in terms of naval assets.
If he doesn't shift to the defensive now and use the extra Divisions from China to set up for 44-46, then he'll be in trouble. I'd say for GJ now, it is the time to make sure he doesn't have leisure to easily set up those defenses. To set a clear multi-campaign offensive roadmap for the next year and get the pieces in place to make it happen.
Aye, the really interesting question is which of Rader or Greyjoy will come up with a cohesive plan first. Rader has experience but hasn't realised he has reached the end point of meaningful offensive operations ( although the sheer extent of this disaster may help him realise that - silver lining and all that ) while Greyjoy will have to battle inexperience and his lack of confidence vis a vis Rader ( IMO he gives him too much credit/respect e.g. "he's outmanoeuvred me, again" etc etc ) AND the fact that offensive operations are a bit more difficult.
My money is on Rader stabilising for a strong defence before the offensives get rolling but only because I think it will take too long for them to co-ordinate and commence. It is all a learning process though.
[/quote]
I agree here. Don't have nor the experience nor the confidence to start an offensive right now. I still need time to move my assets into the right positions. NW Oz isn't building as fast as i'd like and i'm sending in more reinforcements. In India i still have to decide what to do (he's sending more troops there...). The only place where i feel if not ready at least pretty close is the Solomons...but it's also the most obvious place...
But i also agree on the fact that i do feel i'm getting better over time. Don't feel confortable with the grand strategy yet, but operatively speaking i think i grabbed the basics.
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
ORIGINAL: House Stark
I'm not sure if sending a few carriers only is a good idea. Rader should have at least 9 CVs if not more, plus some CVLs. I'm no expert but thats what, something like ~800 aircraft max? You've seen a few in the Solomons, and Kaga was hit recently, but might he use a damaged Kaga, or sprint the Solomons carriers across the Pacific for an ambush? Even he must realize that he'll need numbers for a carrier battle, and probably isn't going to want to fight on even terms. At the very least I'd assume he'd have the Solomons carriers headed north to try to intercept cripples from an Alaska fight headed back towards Pearl/West Coast.
Then again, he has a lot more to lose in a carrier battle then you. If he sinks your entire CV fleet you've still got the original six, and would replace losses by the end of the year. And given his pilot quality, it's unlikely he could get such a one sided result unless he had an extreme advantage in numbers, an 8-hex attack, or several sub hits before the engagement.
He counted on the surprise for that. With the other carriers in the SPWAC i believed the full KB was there and didn't think about a carrier division in NOPAC.He was indeed right on that fact: he took me by surprise! But he surely didn't expect i had fortified the whole Aleutinas Chain so much...
Don't think he knew i had those 3 CVs ready at PH...he probably thought i had already sent my new CVs to Oz...
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
ORIGINAL: desicat
And Nemo...i agree with you 100%...i'm not ready yet to start the offensive....i need few more months...but sooner or later my time will come!
Won't comment on your statements about Rader's abilities compared to my own...won't be kind of me.
I just wanna say that Rader's strategy sounds fine to me (even if he has made a couple of mistakes at Tulagi and here)....he has created a strong perimeter and now he can easily sit and wait for me to make my own offensive mistakes...
If you don't already have theater campaign plans in motion you may want to consider that you can use Rader's earlier successes against him. Some would think that he is over extended and his campaign in the Solomons has bled him plenty.
His forces in India/Burma are only of value if you decide to take them on - you don't really need the resources. Your success in the Solomon's has the makings of a good springboard for further campaign to cut/threaten Japanese SLOC's, and it is a remote enough threat axis to make reacting to a second campaign in a second theater difficult to coordinate.
You have drawn blood in the Aleutians, they are close to Allied supply centers and combat forces, an offensive campaign in this theater renders the bulk of his defensive perimeter irrelevant, the harsh conditions create system damage on his numerically fewer combat units in a greater proportion, the norther approach to the HI's are far removed from the Solomon theater, and the logistical details to begin a campaign in this theater can be put together more quickly than in other areas. You may want to consider a campaign from the north - just my 2 cents.
Yes, i agree. I'm developping the Aleutinas moving lot of fuel and supplies and support forces there. Consider however that he has strong garrisons all over the Kuriles...but for sure it will be a theatre that i will engage in the next 6/8 months.
RE: REEK, rhymes with what?
ORIGINAL: princep01
and Reek the Sneak, remember what I said about mass, not dribblets (well, probably Heinz and a lot of others said it first)? You THREW the Perth and those DDs away as sure as my name is Bolton. Do...or not do, go or don't go; but stop with all the dribblets here and droplets there. Mass and STRIKE (with an objective in mind)...preferably where he does not expect you to. Preferably at multiple, widely separated points timed to put him on the horns of a dilema as where he will attempt to intevene. Nothing is more gratifying than watching the KB charge all over the Pacific, only to arrive and find a new fire breaking out on the other side of the Japanese perimeter. Well, maybe flaying a persons toe is more fun......
For wasting the Perth, you owe me a toe, Reek. Now get in there and let's see another good head count or I'll make it two. Unleash the dogs of war on those chumps trespassing on Tulagi.
, yes my Lord. I owe u a toe my Lord.......indeed i hoped he tried to re-load those units previously landed and so i hoped to catch those large amphib TF and cause some havoc... didn't expect those BBs were already in fighting conditions...
Mass and strike is a good principle, i agree. But timings are important too and i sometimes you have to throw what you have at hand... well...it depends... [:)]
However, be sure that for my future offensives i'll try to use Rader's phylosophy..."ALWAYS the HAMMER"