ORIGINAL: obvert
Even if you are waiting until all of your ducks (er, DIVS) are in a row before you get started, that doesn't mean you can't use the Allied material advantage for strategic preparation and to mess with his defensive preparations.
What about the idea of some false invasions? Or minor ones? Do you hold Cocos or Christmas Island near Java? Those would be nice as a springboard for the DEI. Or the islands off of Sumatra. Or possibly one of the dot Nicobars. You could swoop in with a few APDs (LR CAPed by distant CVs or not) and grab a few small things there. Not because you think you can keep them, but because you want to throw him off balance and make him wonder where you are going to strike. A marine Raider unit or the like.
You could even just get close enough for him to see you, then run away again, but maybe in a place you're not planning to go next.
A few DD stinger sorties into the heart of the supply lines would be a fun escapade as well. Maybe Central Pacific? (Or just have a read of CR v Q-Ball and try a raid of the Home Islands!)
Even while you're sitting, planing, keep him off balance. I used to play chess against a friend who NEVER stopped making me react. Every move threatened something. Even in a defensive position. It's a simple shift in thinking. Instead of just planning where to attack, plan how to mess with his mind.
Obvert,
we have already tried that kind of "bluffs" in the past and all of them ended up simply in a material loss for the allies, with Rader that didn't "overreact" nor lost his mind. We tried two different invasions in CENTPAC (Tarawa and Marcus-Wake-Iwo) when Rader was fully committed with his Indian gamble. We found well prepared oppositions, with enough troops dug in to repulse a not overwhelming allied effort.
As you can see from the map i attached, Rader has garrisoned The Adamans, Diego, Scoodra, southern DEI, The Mariannas, Kuriles and Marcus/Wake since their conquests.
He also has regiments sitting in Cocos and Christmas.
He knows which are the "hot spots" for an allied counteroffensive and he has devoted assets and energies to occupy them and garrison them with just enough troops to avoid an "easy conquest", so to give him space and time to mount a counteroffensive.
He has a very extended perimeter which is well guarded in the most obvious landing places. My only solution to try something that really umbalances him is to by-pass his outer perimetral outposts and go diretcly to the inner perimeter (which, as far as i can tell, isn't that guarded). So to say i cannot hope to get to Diego, Cocos or Christmas first in order to get a mid-term base for my next major offensive against Sumatra/Adamans/Java...His disposition forces me to get directly there or not to go all the same (if i want to achieve at least a bit of strategical surprise).
About McEllan's quote...if i get it right you're talking about the Civil War Union General right? Well...so true...i'm not bold (while i'm bald[:D]) enough probably...i know...but i think it's more stupid the one who believes to be as smart and Meinstein and loses the war in a single shot than the one who admits to be not a new Alexander the Great, accepts it, and tries to win the war (or not to lose it) with the means the Good Lord has gratefully given him [:D]
Transalting it from GreyJoy's well known life methaphores... i'm already in a bad position strategically speaking. Lost India and China and nearly lost the war few months ago... i won't risk everything in a Heil Mary Shot because i know my limits....i don't have the abilities (yet) to mount a smart and perfect strategic plan that brings me back to a position like the allies were in RL in mid 1943...better to be methodic and cautious, but stiff and "stone-headed" like Montgomery.
[:)]
