The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[kfsgo]

Only 4.7:1? Your pilots are getting sloppy!

More seriously, though, I wonder why he's forcing so many fighters to be tied to such a small number of bombers? Surely they'd at least get more fighters on sweeps, and it's not like Nells are going to make it back either way. Also - 25 Jakes in a day? Mee-yow...

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: kfsgo

Only 4.7:1? Your pilots are getting sloppy!

More seriously, though, I wonder why he's forcing so many fighters to be tied to such a small number of bombers? Surely they'd at least get more fighters on sweeps, and it's not like Nells are going to make it back either way. Also - 25 Jakes in a day? Mee-yow...

If i may guess....

His problem now is that he wanted to get my BBs. He presumed my BBs would have been moved to Tulagi or Lunga, but he couldn't be sure. He could not sweep 4 bases at the same time (Tassa,Lunga,Tulagi and karaikira) because doing so he risked to arrive piece and mail and lose punch. My BBs could be at sea LRCAPPED by my fighters...with sweeps he could have wasted precious missions on empty skies, and when his Nells had taken off, their escort would not had been efficient enough.
That's why i think he preferred to "sacrifice" his fighters in order to give his torpedo bombers a change to arrive safely on the targets...

Luckly i forsaw this move and send my DDs to Lunga to act as a CAP trap....and it worked!

[GreyJoy]

Aug 9, 10 1943

The KBs moves away NE, while his BBs are back at Thousands, along with a huge number of barges, PBs and other minor ships....
Yet i'm not getting what is he up to a part from the "trap"....we sunk another xAK near Auki with our subs...and the transport was empty...[X(] Is he resupplying!?

However, we're sending a "light" TF to investigate.
8 Fletchers will escort CA Australia and CL Leander in a night recon mission to Auki...

His air army remains in the old positions, while we gave a bit of rest to some squadrons moving them from Lunga to Ndeni and changing them with other fresher groups.

An interesting battle took place near Tahiti, where an allied AMC went chasing a jap AMC....we left the enemy armoured transport in flames[8D]

Day Time Surface Combat, near Niue at 145,176, Range 15,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
AMC Kinryu Maru, Shell hits 7, heavy fires, heavy damage

Allied Ships
AMC Chitral, Shell hits 1

PTs will be sent to Thousands and Auki to sweep and give some problems to Rader....hopefully

We also spent a good number of PPs in order to buy 3 NZ BDEs....these guys will be moved to Noumea in order to replace the 32nd U.S. Division that will be sent to Ndeni...

His bombers stayed home today...licking wounds[:D]

[paulkenny]

Point being this is no longer the early war, this is solidly into the war, 20 months. 
 
If you spend too much time worrying about Rader's abilities you will never be able to overcome him (see McClellan as a perfect example).  You need to make him start worrying about you.  That will throw off and very quickly destroy his ability for offessive actions.
 
He is trying to flank you?  FLank him, the CVs give you operational mobility.  The planes on bases are useful but lose a critical skill, mobility. 
 
Stop worrying about his LBA, they are no longer  the skilled pilots of early 42 they are 50-60 level skilled pilots, which will be decimated by your CAP. 
 
You are playing his game, it is time to start making him play your game.

[paulkenny]

BTW the current turn exemplifies what I am saying, nearly 5 to 1 in losses you are inflicting, the Nicks the Tojos are shortlegged, the ocscars are just waiting to be flamed, come in from the southeast near Suva. Your left flank is covered by the Solomons so he can only work to the NE of the Solomons.

[JohnDillworth]

If you spend too much time worrying about Rader's abilities you will never be able to overcome him (see McClellan as a perfect example). You need to make him start worrying about you. That will throw off and very quickly destroy his ability for offessive actions.

Not an expert on the civil war and have only read a bit about it. McClellan was an interesting character. Yes, it did take a long time building up the fighting ability of the Union army but they were in rough shape and fairly demoralized. When he finally took the field during the Peninsula campaign he, and his army performed well, but not quite as well as his opponent, some upstart from Virginia named Lee. His procrastination finally fell afoul of a patient Lincoln who famously said "If he can't fight himself, he excels in making others ready to fight" I think Lincoln understood by this time that the war would be a war of total annihilation and that he would just have to grind the South down to dust. Grant and Sherman understood this and were the right general's to do it. The South could never stand up to the Norths industrial might WITP is a war of total annihilation. You will just have to grind Raeder down. Japan can not stand up to the unending goodies in your reinforcement queue.

[paulkenny]

McClellan even more than his ability to prepare his troops is apropos in this situation.  despite overwhelming material superiority he consistently overestimated the Confederates forces against him, for months on end.  by doing so he surrendered the initative, tactically and operationally at first strategically after the 7 days.  his fears of being defeated lead directly to him being defeated.  when he finally met Lee, Lee completely defeated him on a moral and morale basis.  that is what I fear will happed to GJ.  By continually overestimating his opponent he will not be able to face him operationally. He will continually fear things that Rader cant do while missing operational opportunities.  His fear of losing his carriers is a perfect example.  He has parity at least on carrier potential, yet fears losing a carrier or two.  If he can trade 1 or 2 carriers for each jap carrier that would be a HUGE game changer.

[princep01]

JohnDill....a comment like that is sure to arouse a lengthy divergence into Off-subjectland". Looks like it has begun.

On subject, I have a comment for you Reek. I think you worry too much about tactical traps and mayhaps over analyze things a bit. The LYB fleet, barge and fighter build up in the Solomons is for a pretty obvious purpose, don't you think? I'd wager a limited one at that. There are 17-18K beleaguered trespassers on Bolton land (Tulagi). I have suggested you remove the temption for these types of LYB actions by squashing the bejeebers out of these cockroaches for sometime now. However, my Reek, I had forgotten....you LIKE cockroaches. They are a protein source and an unending source of entertainment while you wile-away the hours in the dungeon of Dreadfort. That is why you don't want to stamp these blighters to pulp and collect the points. Points don't mean anything when there is protein to be had. How silly of me. I am almost apologetic....but not quite, because, you see, my Reek, the LYBs are going to sail in and whisk the buggers away from you before you can eat them. No points and no protein, you see. Oh well. that is why I am warm and prosperous out here while you freeze in there. Say good bye to you erstwhile playmates as the LYBs will soon have them away to vex you elsewhere.

I'm returnin soon. We WILL visit.

Princep Bolton

[JohnDillworth]

He has parity at least on carrier potential, yet fears losing a carrier or two. If he can trade 1 or 2 carriers for each jap carrier that would be a HUGE game changer.

I'm on the fence here. In a standup fight he should take on the KB. Even a 1 for 2 trade is not so bad. However, I don't think all this LAB allows for a standup fight. Too many variables. Readers still able to put up 1,00o aircraft. Even low quality ones will overwhelm his CAP and might let just enough bombers to get a few hits. I've disagreed with Greyjoys conservative use of BB's early in the campaign but I can understand being cautious with his CV's.
That being said cautious is one thing, leaving them in port is another thing entirely. Put them in the field and maybe set a trap. Hang them out of range and maybe dart in when he drops down for an attack. There have been a number of times when the KB has launched an attack and lots tons of aircraft. That would have been the time to take a chance. I get what Greyjoy is doing, it's boring, but, for now, effective. He may be doing a McClellan for now, but at least he is not doing a Hamlet

[Canoerebel]

GreyJoy is actually doing what he needs to do right now, thanks partly to his own play and very much to rader's mistakes (I'm of the opinion that he is making big mistakes even though he's a pretty good player).

I've said this before, but I think it holds true.  In AE, the game breaks down this way:  1941 is the year of surprise; 1942 is the year of Japanese expansion; 1943 is the year of attrition; 1944 is the year of Allied expansion; and 1945 is the year of conquest.  That timetable might need a bit of adjusting in Scenario Two, or to account for widely divergent skill levels among the two players, but you get the idea.

It's 1943 and rader is making this a very successful "year of attrition" for GreyJoy.  To me, it appears that rader has totally destroyed his own airforce, throwing it time after time against a better Allied airforce under adverse conditions.  Shame on rader, but GreyJoy did the right thing by choosing a battleground where rader would come to him.  As long as rader is willing to fight hard on unfavorable terms, GreyJoy is doing the right thing by accepting battle there.  Only if rader weren't engaging in a battle of attrition might GreyJoy need to sally forth to draw rader into battle.  (In 1943, it doesn't really matter where the battle of attrition takes place as long as it's taking place somewhere.)

GreyJoy hasn't really begun to attrition rader's capital ships yet.  Eventually he'll have to do so, but if he continues to win the air war, such attrition will occur naturally.  Later in '43 or early in '44, GreyJoy will move forward and attack places that rader will have to defend.  Since rader's airforce will be in shambles (I think), he'll have to commit his carriers and combat ships.  That will result in major attrition.

So, keep up the attriting, GreyJoy!  Good work.

P.S.  I probably didn't convey well that a great deal of credit should be accorded GreyJoy in setting up a scenario in which the attrition would occur on terms very favorable to him.

[Nemo121]

I'm with Canoerebel on this. Greyjoy is still learning. Right now his biggest issues are:
1. Seeing every little setback as proof of some trap Rader set for him ( leading him to over-evaluate Rader and create a sort of AE inferiority complex ).
2. the need to avoid doing something stupid which will cripple him for 18 months.

Right now Greyjoy hasn't carried out a single proper large-scale contested amphibious assault. When he does he'll probably make lots of mistakes and lose more than he should. He also doesn't have experience with CV battles etc etc. He can, playing within his "strengths" continue to gain advantage. If he tries stuff he doesn't yet know and understand he is likely to be badly beaten.

He needs to try operations commensurate with his current ability level. A lot of advice here is ignorning that.


Edit: I read witpqs' post which crossed mine. We're very much on the same track. This isn't the time to sit back doing nothing but neither is it the time to carry out operations which he simply has no experience in. It is the time to carry out operations within his level of capabilities which move things forward.

The USMC invaded a VERY peripheral base when they wanted to test out their amphibious doctrine ( Tarawa etc ). They didn't start it out by testing their doctrine vs the Marianas.

[witpqs]

Generally I agree with that, CR, but with a couple of adjustments. It is late '43 (IIRC) so GJ has got to have a lot of stuff moving (not necessarily hitting beaches everywhere). The time to cover large distances in this game is substantial. That means he has to have at least hig-level rough plans that tell him where stuff needs to be staging.

Second, GJ needs experience in amphib/combined ops. I recommend getting that with some limited ops under limited risk. His navies did take a beating earlier, so limiting the risk in the learning ops will reduce the impact on his build-up of any losses he incurs.

[witpqs]

My post crossed with Nemo's but I think we are on the same track.

[paulkenny]

Im not advocating a raid on Truk or anything so drastic. USE the mobility of his carriers. If Rader even sees a large CV task force to his left flank he will be hesitant to move south, if he gets aggressive smash him. Making him hesitant about bringing KB into the fight for the Solomons is a big win for GJ. So even a non-engagement is a win for him. THe only possible downside is losing carriers without getting at the KB and I dont see that as a realistic possibility given the aircraft losses to the Japs. Their experience HAS to be down compared to the Allies. His land based fighters dont have the legs to provide escort the whole way to the Allied fleet.

[Canoerebel]

That's a good idea, GreyJoy.  Pick out some pretty safe little IJ island and get some practice setting up and successfully completing an amphibious operation against an enemy-held atoll or island.  Even if it turns out to be lightly garrisoned, you'll learn alot, mainly because the whole excericise will have you asking questions and getting answers about the thousand little things involved in getting an invasion right.

[Nemo121]

THe only possible downside is losing carriers without getting at the KB and I dont see that as a realistic possibility given the aircraft losses to the Japs.

Well, if this is the only realistic downside you see it explains why you'd be so gung-ho to go ahead. There are many, many more downsides.

[GreyJoy]

Paul, i see your point and i agree that if i keep my CVs moving i may be able to get a 1 vs 1 carrier battle only (meaning without LBAs)...but i also have 2 very strong points that advocate against this vision:

1- CV fighters are badly needed in the Solomons. Against those numbers of LBA (1300 fighters + 400 bombers) i desperately need those 36x6 Hellcats, and i need them on Lunga, Tulagi or Ndeni, not on CVs that are kept far away from the front. I simply don't have enough fighters to substitute them.

2- I don't have enough escort in order to stay below the max-a/c limits. With 9 CVs + 3 CVLs and 10 CVEs i'd need something like 6/7 Air TFs....and each of those TF needs 8 DDs at least, some CAs and possibly the modern BBs....well, as you know i have my surface combat ships engaged in a mortal dance at TLT and they are foundamental in order to keep his own BBs honest.

I'm not saying i won't use my CVs at all.
I'm getting ready. I'm waiting for my CVs at PH to join the others in SOPAC. Then we'll be ready. All my troops are ready, my ships almost.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

THe only possible downside is losing carriers without getting at the KB and I dont see that as a realistic possibility given the aircraft losses to the Japs.

Well, if this is the only realistic downside you see it explains why you'd be so gung-ho to go ahead. There are many, many more downsides.

THe o

Spot on, I would say. Rader had already admitted that he is cutting back other production to the bare bones so that he can focus on producing air frames. Don't underestimate the numbers that he can produce in scen #2. It is amazing. While I suspect his pilot quality is dropping-don't think for a minute that he is running out of aircraft. He is not.

[Nemo121]

And if you read the AAR carefully and not just on the surface you'll see that he has relatively spared his actual carrier-based air. The effectiveness of KB will be greater than many here suspect.

[bigred]

Nemo121:
The USMC invaded a VERY peripheral base when they wanted to test out their amphibious doctrine ( Tarawa etc ). They didn't start it out by testing their doctrine vs the Marianas.

Tarawa occurred nov43.  When compared to history GJ still has time to develop his skills. I myself do wonder -where would I want to be sitting at the end of 44, given this situation.
I speak w/ a view of similar skill level to GJ.