Empire of the Rising Lemon? SqzMyLemon (Japan) v Smeulders (Allies)

[SqzMyLemon]

The next turn is in the inbox, which means it will be the morning of Dec 7/42 after the turn is run. It's hard to believe it's taken two years to play one year of game time. Wow, RL obviously makes it tough sometimes to stick to a turn a day, and there are some days when there just isn't a chance or the inclination to sit down for a turn. It shows me that I will have to try and pick up the pace again as I'd like to wrap this one up so I can start another AAR before I turn 45! [:D] It's been a struggle at times, but I think the next year bodes well for the game and getting things really moving again.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
Wow, RL obviously makes it tough sometimes to stick to a turn a day, and there are some days when there just isn't a chance or the inclination to sit down for a turn.

This is why I have not been able to start a PBEM. With a new son, I just can't commit to a schedule. Not fair to my opponent. Heck, I'm setting up for a re-start of Downfall ... its been 4 weeks since I started to set up the first turn. I hope to actually run my first turn this weekend. Maybe. And then I will get 2-3 turns per week if I am lucky. [:@] [:(]

[SqzMyLemon]

Here are a series of screenshots from Tracker showing where I sit in terms of the economy, military production and losses for both sides.

I have to say I'm totally shocked at the Allied numbers. Less than 37 transports sunk. I simply have not been able to interdict Allied TF's with submarines or otherwise. Japanese submarines that find a TF almost 99.9% of the time target the escorts...and miss. I haven't raided since air and naval search never spots any targets within range. I'll be very curious to read Bart's AAR and see where his routes were. I'm sure they have relaxed somewhat, but I wonder if most of the time they were skirting map edge. I think he is very disciplined with his ships, and generally sends out large and well protected TF's. This is just a guess, as I almost never see anything to actually determine otherwise.

Plane and engine production was scaled way back due to the lack of combat and with PDU off I just don't have a proper feel for how many aircraft to have in the pools. Since I can't downgrade air units, I didn't want to overproduce aircraft that would never get used. I'm forced to build a little of everything and have no idea the losses I'll be taking with any particular aircraft. I am ramping up Tojo production though, as more Nate Sentai's can upgrade to it. I won't be able to rely on a late fighter for the majority of my units until the Frank arrives in 1944.

Just for an example, I have two Sentai's of 36 and 42 aircraft respectively and a Chutai of 12 for a grand total of 90 Tojo's IIa's. I just don't see the need to produce many since they will upgrade to the IIb and the IIa's will never get used again. PDU off may be more historical, but I'm not sure I like it. There just isn't any flexiblity and I can't produce the better aircraft, nor equip any more Sentai's in the numbers to make a difference.

I don't think I'll need to produce huge numbers of the same fighter for a vast majority of my units until 1944, and then it will probably be too late.

Comments or suggestions on any screenshots are welome, as always. With the lack of PDU off games that are in the late stages of the war, the biggest question mark for me is aircraft production. I'm pretty sure I'm not producing enough, but then the lack of combat has made it impossible to even contemplate future loss rates.

WitP Chart:

[SqzMyLemon]

Global:

[SqzMyLemon]

Industry Overview:

[SqzMyLemon]

Naval Ship Production:

[SqzMyLemon]

JAAF Production - Fighters

[SqzMyLemon]

JNAF Production - Fighters and total Engine pools

[SqzMyLemon]

Naval Losses:

Rather embarassing. Then again, it was a total Sir Robin with the Allied Fleet essentially disappearing after the naval battle for Java.

[SqzMyLemon]

China Theatre:

China is becoming an interesting theatre as Bart reacts to my recent attack. Chinese troops stay rooted to Changteh, only one unit out of 27 moved west towards Chihkiang. The large 24 Chinese Army S.E. of Chihkiang has made an about face and crossed the river back to the base. An undetermined number of LCU's are moving west in what seems an effort to reinforce the defenders containing my bridgehead. I won't know for a day or two exactly how many.

Japanese bombers are alternating hitting ground troops and airbases to slow movement and cause as many supply hits as possible. There is no sign of the Chinese airforce. I've hundreds of bombers active in Southern China now after redeploying 3rd and 5th Air Division bomber Sentai's. I find Sonia's are effective bombing airbases while the Helen's and Sally's are best used against ground troops.

Japanese reinforcements will arrive at the beachhead tomorrow, an Eng. Rgt. and the 36th Division. The 13th Division will arrive within a week. I'm sending another Division from Changsha. 12th Army divisions are starting to arrive at Hankow as further reinforcements. I'm creating a large armoured force at Changsha to exploit an eventual breakthrough. The 3rd Tank Division is at Changsha and I've decided to buy out every armoured in Manchuria for deployment in China. I may even withdraw the 2nd Tank Divison forces from Burma to redeploy in China. I think the armoured units are better utilized in China than going up against superior Commonwealth formations. In China they may tip the balance.

If the Chinese move too much in support of containing the beachhead then I'll invest Changteh with forces at Hengyang and Changsha. The object will be a siege of Changteh as opposed to an assault.

My forces at the beachhead have reduced their disruption to 0 and I will artillery bombard the defenders as supply allows. With the reinforcement of two divisions and more on the way I hope the Chinese attempt a counterattack. I should be strong enough to stand and inflict horrendous casualties if they do.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
Plane and engine production was scaled way back due to the lack of combat and with PDU off I just don't have a proper feel for how many aircraft to have in the pools. Since I can't downgrade air units, I didn't want to overproduce aircraft that would never get used. I'm forced to build a little of everything and have no idea the losses I'll be taking with any particular aircraft. I am ramping up Tojo production though, as more Nate Sentai's can upgrade to it. I won't be able to rely on a late fighter for the majority of my units until the Frank arrives in 1944.
I don't think I'll need to produce huge numbers of the same fighter for a vast majority of my units until 1944, and then it will probably be too late.

You're right, PDU off is tough on the IJ player morale, but easier on the production. As you state, no point in producing much as you have so much upgrade blockage until '44. All you can really do is train, train, train. You simply need to get your pool of trained pilots, especially fighter and kami pilots, to be maxxed out.

High skill, high exp pilots in NF squadrons make a difference. you want 60/70 or better in them. You're still not going to get better than 10% per night bomb run, but even that rate will attrit the B-29's faster than they replace.

Kami's really work, but you have to saturate the defenses. That means launching 1000 plane attacks, and losing most of them. You're going to trade 1000 kami's for say 6 CV's. 3 or 4 of those exchanges and the allied players ability to accomplish an amphib landing is really hurt.

So, it's a trade you are willing will make, but it means you need 10's of thousands of planes in inventory and the same in pilots. So, in '43 you need to be building the kami planes that you will be using ... 800kg bombs are the key from what I can tell. When they hit, things go boom. You only have a few planes in '43 that will equip them .... don't think current air group demand, think kami's.

You also need bases to be able to setup and launch a 1000 plane attack. Only certain areas will permit that. Be sure those places are ready to do so.

Of course, the allies can counter this strategy/tactic. But doing so can slow them down considerably, potentially to a point that theycannot attain their point targets and IJ gets a marginal win. It becomes kinda a reverse game, just like early game the allied strategy is to disrupt the IJ timetable. Your goal is to disrupt the Allied timetable in '45. You only have to buy 6 months or so and they are in real trouble.

[PaxMondo]

Your HI output hasn't grown as much as I have seen in other games.  Looks like you were unlucky and most of the HI you captured was damaged.  Too bad that.  The good news is that you have NOT overexpanded your economy and you are banking HI at a really nice clip.
 
Your VEH pool is still low.  You've expanded per the rule of thumb here, but you're still not getting a pool.  It likely means you've had some higher than avg combat losses in devices with VEH.  you don't want this pool to be empty though and it essentialy is.  I'd add another 25 or so. 
 
Other than that, you look really good.  You have plenty of HI overage to be able to expand/turn on appropriate plane production to start building your kami pools.  Just remember not to get into a situation where the auto-scrap rule kicks in.  You can usually avoid that by using your kami pool plane in your kami pilot training groups.

[SqzMyLemon]

Hi Pax,

Thanks for the comments. I've asked Damian to look at my production as well and initially he seems to think I'm in good shape too. It's encouraging to hear that I managed something well to this point. Always room for improvement, but for my first time I'm happy with my progress to date. [;)]

Your comments about Kami's will have me looking at my future arrivials and starting to ramp up production of suitable aircraft. Kami's require low naval bombing skills, is that correct? It looks like something in the beta has changed. Previously, I was setting my units to 5k altitude for low naval bombing training, but since the beta the naval bombing skill is the one being trained for now, not low naval.

I've increased my pilot training after Nemo pointed out how slim the pools were, so I'm addressing that shortfall as well.

I've decided to pursue a limited counter to Tabiteuea as originally planned. I think I'm going to invade Baker and the Ellice Islands and start to draw Allied naval units out. Unless the Allies strike sooner I'm looking at launching offensive operations in January.

In Burma/China I'm really tempted to go with a previous idea of shifting much of my strength to invade China. I do not like how exposed my line is to being cut and with the ability to move supply through Burma all it will take is me losing Bhamo and Lashio to open a direct supply path into China. If I capture Paoshan and drive towards Kunming I eliminate that threat, providing I can supply my own troops of course.

I'm kicking myself somewhat, I think I had some good ideas, but sat on them too long. If I had gone with my original intentions when I first thought of them I think I'd be in great shape towards knocking China out. That comes from inexperience. I'm learning more from this game then I thought.

Anyway, rambling here. Thanks for posting, it was getting a little quiet in here, but that's not surprising with how indecisive I've been. Posting those meagre Allied losses has spurred me on to at least do something before it's completely too late. It really is time to try and give the Allies a bloody nose somewhere before they get rolling.

[Erkki]

Btw, which CV did you lose and how? How about the Allied CLs - looks like you've been able to attrit them somewhat(compared to your losses in CAs and CLs at least), not that ships like Adelaine, Java or Tromp are of much threat, relatively speaking...

[Chickenboy]

Just a point of note on your China map.  Is the 36th ID moving to effect a cross river march to their NW?  You may want to reconsider-they'll likely get their arses handed to them by defending Chinese troops across the river in that city hex.

[PaxMondo]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Your comments about Kami's will have me looking at my future arrivials and starting to ramp up production of suitable aircraft. Kami's require low naval bombing skills, is that correct? It looks like something in the beta has changed. Previously, I was setting my units to 5k altitude for low naval bombing training, but since the beta the naval bombing skill is the one being trained for now, not low naval.

I set mine to 1000ft for training. If you go to 100 ft sometimes that will trigger the strafing training instead of low naval.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

Btw, which CV did you lose and how? How about the Allied CLs - looks like you've been able to attrit them somewhat(compared to your losses in CAs and CLs at least), not that ships like Adelaine, Java or Tromp are of much threat, relatively speaking...

Hi Erkki,

I lost the CV Hiryu to a British torpedo when I invaded Java. Critical hit and nothing I did would put the fires out and system damage just kept increasing. What sucks was the fires remained at 2 for over a week and I couldn't move off the air groups. It may have been a bug or just bad luck, but never being able to put the fires out meant no repairs, so I tried moving her to a bigger port, but she sunk en route. Needless to say I was pretty choked at the time, but realize now bad things happen.

Almost all the CL and DD losses occured in the battle for Java. After that I never saw an Allied surface force until Baker Island was invaded and recently Tabiteuea. As I've mentioned numerous times, the Allies simply disappeared after Java.

[SqzMyLemon]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Just a point of note on your China map.  Is the 36th ID moving to effect a cross river march to their NW?  You may want to reconsider-they'll likely get their arses handed to them by defending Chinese troops across the river in that city hex.

Hi Chickenboy,

Nope, the 36th Division is the unit to the left of the label and is moving N.E. to reinforce the bridgehead, and actually crossed last turn and didn't shock attack since the 1/3 rule was already covered by the initial landing. Looking at the map I see your confusion as it's not clear which unit is the 36th Division. The unit you indicate is the 1st Inf. Group and is purely a feint. I'm a drafter, so I certainly didn't do my job and make it clear!

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
Thanks for the comments. I've asked Damian to look at my production as well and initially he seems to think I'm in good shape too. It's encouraging to hear that I managed something well to this point. Always room for improvement, but for my first time I'm happy with my progress to date. [;)]

Decided to improve the AirProduction screen to include upgrade plane no's. This will work well with PDU OFF. It is accumulative down the direct upgrade path.

The first no. = current (delayed and arrived) direct upgrade or the next upgrade for a group.
The (Total) = the first no. + grp upgrade path (so I iterate through all the groups and see what will upgrade to this type (PDU OFF))

Taken with TBO.YTA no's it should be easier to gauge how many planes are needed to be produced.

I'll send you the csv file for your perusal.

[edit]Might be a bit too much for some, so I'll dumb it down a bit and make it more readable.[8D] Maybe, just have total production number and then a switch to look specifically at all the stats.

[n01487477]

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon
...
I've decided to pursue a limited counter to Tabiteuea as originally planned. I think I'm going to invade Baker and the Ellice Islands and start to draw Allied naval units out. Unless the Allies strike sooner I'm looking at launching offensive operations in January.

Baker and Ellice Is. might be options, as would Palmyra and Christmas Is. but if I were your opponent I'd have all my CV's holed up in Australia or NZ looking to play historically and go up the Solomon Is. chain. He could be in SanFran too, but I doubt it... Actually, seeing as you haven't ventured into the Southern Ocean, his CV's could even be around Fiji. Although, given the lack of action, maybe I was right with my first assessment.

It's too late now to take Fiji or Noumea but you could use it.

Maybe send a Ampib feint against Koumac or Ndeni while showing a big force amassing for an attack against Baker. Keep your CV's back and see what you can draw out.

Thanks for posting, it was getting a little quiet in here, but that's not surprising with how indecisive I've been. Posting those meagre Allied losses has spurred me on to at least do something before it's completely too late. It really is time to try and give the Allies a bloody nose somewhere before they get rolling.

I don't have your patience with opponents that do nothing.

You said that you can't find his transports etc, drive deeper (not a land grab) and see what's there. Gotta hit him soon and hard before he finally awakes from his slumber.