Participating in History (OT)

[pws1225]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Can you be a contrarian and an optimist at the same time? [:)]

Yup. Nemo would be a good example.

[warspite1]

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

It's unlikely that we'll have another Lehman-like collapse based upon financial malfeasance. Bank stress tests here were pretty good in ferreting out problem banks, resulting in recapitalization of many banks over the last two years.

The situation in Europe concerns me, but this too shall pass, I believe. Then again, I'm a hopeless optimist. Hey-what's the alternative? Stepping into the abyss? No thanks-I'll be (cautiously) optimistic.

Warspite1

Mmmmmm, I think the avoidance of a Lehman-like collapse seems pretty much wishful thinking - although hopefully the scale of further banking problems will be nothing like as terrifying as Lehman. But remember the stress tests did NOT take into account Sovereign default. Dexia bank allegedly is in all sorts of trouble right now and the big French banks have to have capital injections if Greece does what everyone seems to think they will do and she defaults.

As for it being a European issue? well BoA and MS are rumoured to be in the do-do too.

Fact is, you know there is a REAL problem when everyone is looking to pin the blame on everyone else. e.g. Geithner had the audacity to lecture the Europeans on not getting their house in order when it was the US politicians prevarication that led to a downgrade in the US sovereign rating - unbelievable!

We are living in really uncertain times. At some point mr and mrs German taxpayer will wake up to the fact that they are paying through the nose for mr and mrs Southern European to live beyond their means and they are going to be a tad miffed when they do.

Big question - how much pain will have to be endured by those seeking to keep the European project on track before it all comes to a rather unseemly end?

Scary times indeed.........

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

It's unlikely that we'll have another Lehman-like collapse based upon financial malfeasance. Bank stress tests here were pretty good in ferreting out problem banks, resulting in recapitalization of many banks over the last two years.

The situation in Europe concerns me, but this too shall pass, I believe. Then again, I'm a hopeless optimist. Hey-what's the alternative? Stepping into the abyss? No thanks-I'll be (cautiously) optimistic.

Warspite1

Mmmmmm, I think the avoidance of a Lehman-like collapse seems pretty much wishful thinking - although hopefully the scale of further banking problems will be nothing like as terrifying as Lehman. But remember the stress tests did NOT take into account Sovereign default. Dexia bank allegedly is in all sorts of trouble right now and the big French banks have to have capital injections if Greece does what everyone seems to think they will do and she defaults.

As for it being a European issue? well BoA and MS are rumoured to be in the do-do too.

Fact is, you know there is a REAL problem when everyone is looking to pin the blame on everyone else. e.g. Geithner had the audacity to lecture the Europeans on not getting their house in order when it was the US politicians prevarication that led to a downgrade in the US sovereign rating - unbelievable!

We are living in really uncertain times. At some point mr and mrs German taxpayer will wake up to the fact that they are paying through the nose for mr and mrs Southern European to live beyond their means and they are going to be a tad miffed when they do.

Big question - how much pain will have to be endured by those seeking to keep the European project on track before it all comes to a rather unseemly end?

Scary times indeed.........

Agreed.

I disagree about the extent of the effect of Greek contagion on the United States, compared to Europe. With all due respect, we've had our hard lessons learned. Europe has nothing like a TARP ready to roll out. Nor will they be able to act in a unified fashion with anything resembling haste. Our stress tests were significantly more stringent than those that Europe rolled out to paper over some of the initial scares. It's really comparing apples to oranges.

Yes, everyone will be hit by European sovereign default, but most of all the Europeans. Much as Germany weathered our financial meltdown over here pretty well in 2008-2009, we'll manage OK when European sovereign debt defaults.

I do agree about the European experiment being on trial. No shortage of finger pointing going on. The German people are crying out to bring back the DM and exit the Euro, in essence leaving it for the profligate spenders.

US long-term debt downgrade by S&P (one of several rating agencies) was largely a political move. It has increased day-to-day volatility, but hasn't had any measurable impact on the desire for the world for US Government debt. The 10 year note just hit all time LOWS for yield because it's being snapped up by everyone for security sake.

Geitner doesn't control S&P, nor does he control congress-S&P made their own choices as a private rating agency. Congress debated and hashed out spending cuts in their own inimitable way. S&P's behavior seemed predetermined and they were intent on sending a message about long-term spending trends. Got it. Think that's the same thing as sovereign default and European banking contagion? Orders of magnitude difference.

Maybe, just maybe, Geitner could have some useful experential advice to provide colleagues across the pond. Don't take it as such an affront, mate. If you blow off the advice of well-meaning friends, however abruptly delivered, they may change their minds about helping you in a time of need.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

We are living in really uncertain times. At some point mr and mrs German taxpayer will wake up to the fact that they are paying through the nose for mr and mrs Southern European to live beyond their means and they are going to be a tad miffed when they do.

Big question - how much pain will have to be endured by those seeking to keep the European project on track before it all comes to a rather unseemly end?

Big questions. Dunno. What do some of our European colleagues think about living in der hexenkessel?

[rockmedic109]

There is a lot of opportunity in the stock market now and in the next few years for buying at low prices. I don't expect the market to rise much for 5 years or more. The Baby Boomers are starting to retire so you have a large number of people taking money out of the market as they retire; more than the the new generation of workers are putting in.

The market will rise again, but I am expecting stagnation or devaluation for the next five years. This will create opportunity, but those that have to retire and take money out NOW take a huge hit.

I've lost quite a bit in the market over the last few years {so take anything I say accordingly}, but I don't look at it as a loss. Not untill I go to sell. Like the song says, never count your money when you're sitting at the table. To me, it doesn't matter how much I loose now, but how much I have when I take my money out of the market.

[Itdepends]

I'm guilty of buying more than I should have earlier in my career but now have everthing I need, and most things I want so have started reducing debt over the last 3 years. With my wife now working after 12years out of the workforce raising our kids we have a second (lower taxed) income and I'm fortunate enough to be working in the mining industry in Australia. Despite low to zero profit margins at my current location the demand for qualified people in mining means we still got 5-10% pay rises this year and a ~15% lump sum bonus. Best thing from my point of view is to keep on paying down debt.

[USSAmerica]

Indeed, paying off debt provides a guaranteed return!  [:)]

[Kwik E Mart]

a little late to the party, but i was on the flight deck of the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) when 11 WW2 aircraft were craned on then launched while in San Francisco Bay near the Golden Gate Bridge in 1995 as part of the 50th anniversary of VJ day...quite stirring...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6LuAJ3LEsk

[Canoerebel]

Errrrr.....what does this have to do with the topic?

[:)]

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Errrrr.....what does this have to do with the topic?

[:)]

"Participating in History", dude. [:'(]

[chesmart]

Great Picture

[Kwik E Mart]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Errrrr.....what does this have to do with the topic?

[:)]

mea culpa...debt blah,blah,blah economy blah,blah,blah recession blah,blah,blah...better? [;)]

[frank1970]

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Alpha77, what is the feeling generally in Germany about the goings-on in the eurozone's PIGS, and the fact that Germany is seemingly being asked to foot the bill to keep the European project on the rails? Don't want to get political here, but in the context of the OP's question would be interested to know what the average German thinks of all this.

As not being Alpha77 but also from Germany I might answer your question.

About 90% of all Germans do absolutely not like to pay the bills for Greece, especially because the Greek do not show the lightest intet to really change something about their spending. It is only the politians who really want to support PIIGS and keep the EU.

And our political parties feel this, too. The Liberals now more and more change towards an Anti EU attitiude as they fell to about 2% in the last polls. The onlöy somewhat conservative party in Germany, the CSU did support the new EU support law but clearly told our Chancelor, that there will be no more support from this direction. The very leftwing Linke (formerly SED) claims to ask the people about helping out the EU-PIIGS.

T summarize: people in Germany clearly hate the EU and a large part of the population wants to leave the "EUDSSR" as it is called more and more often.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: Frank

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Alpha77, what is the feeling generally in Germany about the goings-on in the eurozone's PIGS, and the fact that Germany is seemingly being asked to foot the bill to keep the European project on the rails? Don't want to get political here, but in the context of the OP's question would be interested to know what the average German thinks of all this.

As not being Alpha77 but also from Germany I might answer your question.

About 90% of all Germans do absolutely not like to pay the bills for Greece, especially because the Greek do not show the lightest intet to really change something about their spending. It is only the politians who really want to support PIIGS and keep the EU.

And our political parties feel this, too. The Liberals now more and more change towards an Anti EU attitiude as they fell to about 2% in the last polls. The onlöy somewhat conservative party in Germany, the CSU did support the new EU support law but clearly told our Chancelor, that there will be no more support from this direction. The very leftwing Linke (formerly SED) claims to ask the people about helping out the EU-PIIGS.

T summarize: people in Germany clearly hate the EU and a large part of the population wants to leave the "EUDSSR" as it is called more and more often.

Frank,

Thank you for posting this. I always value your opinions in matters such as this that are principally affecting your country and your countrymen. Your insight helps me understand more about all sides of the issue.

A brief question, though: Does the German 'hate' include membership in the EU (European Union), the ECB (European Common Bank), the ECU (Euro Currency Union) or all three? They're obviously very different-a distinction sometimes lost on Americans or others that are less familiar with your 'unique' political institutional structurings over there.

Thanks in advance for your clarifications.

[Canoerebel]

Very interesting information and insights, gents. Thanks for contributing (and keeping things "even keeled"). I'm very intersted in the thoughts coming from the forum. In the first place, I'm reading things from fellow Americans that have are looking at things from perspectives that I haven't considered. As for those contributing from other countries, this is perspectives we don't see much of in our newspapers.

[Rainer]

T summarize: people in Germany clearly hate the EU and a large part of the population wants to leave the "EUDSSR" as it is called more and more often.

That looks to me as a very private opinion beefed up with an abreviation (EUDSSR) I never heard of.
"People in Germany clearly hate the EU" is plain false and borders the field of propaganda ("Biertisch-Geschwätz" => "Beertable talk").

Besides, the whole issue is political and should be stopped according to forum rules.

[frank1970]

Hi Rainer,

Oh, so German and oh so political correct.

Just try reading some news, like Welt online or Spiegel online and enjoy the comments.

Canoe et all:

the last polls, and it doesn´t matter, which institute collects the data, clearly show large majorities against helping the PIIGS states.
(example greece: http://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/arti ... chirm.html )

Imho most Germans dislike the Euro and want back their German mark (about 70 to 80% of the people, welt online poll).
About the same number would accept to leave the EU to get the mark back. They would even accept some economical backsets to get back full autonomy as how it looks now Germany will have to pay the bills for all european countries.
There also is a very strong dislike to all those banking tricks the EU-bank wants to play ("hebel"). Most people do not like, that some EU bureaucrat can now just tell our government, how much money Germany should pay and nobody can do anything about it. Else nobody is accountable for demanding money and using it. Those guys have writen an immunity against legal charges into the great new "rescue umbrella"-law.

Of course there are always people who like the EU and the concept of a untied Europe. The problem is, that a lot of unelected persons just tell the European countries what to do, what to produce and what to buy and now, who has to pay the bills. Nothing of all that is part of the legal foundations of the EU but an erosion of power, which is just grabbed by the bureaucrats in Brussles. As those guys say themselves: "we propose something and if nobody protests, we will make it law".
just some examples:
sugar will be more exensive this year over here. Not because we have to little of it (we have the best crop ever for suger plants), but because some third world countries do not deliver!!! The european suger is not allowed to be sold as food-sugar because of some EU regulation.
Or the next great idea of our grand EU: they are forbidding the production of lightbulbs, because light bulbs are soooooooo dangerous to nature and producing lots of CO2. Therefore we should use energy saving bulbs, which emit electric radiation and contain toxic mercury.
Next year they will forbid coffee machines with heating plates because of energy wasting.
The EU tells us, how to treat our criminals too, or what foreigners we have to tolerate, or what amount of money we have to give them. Of course they forbid Germany to introduce roadcharge for German highways, because it discriminates non German Europeans. etc pp

Stuff like this just angers the most people, not all of course, over here.

The opposite is true for our politicians and media, who have a strong liking for the EU they created. So the political and the medial opinion is quite different to the real feeling of the people.

Of course I only speak for me and most of the people I know. It is absolutely possible, that Rainer and his fellows have a totally differnt point of view.

[USSAmerica]

I only know two German citizens personally, one a good friend in Germany, and one an acquaintance, currently living in the US for work.  Both of them feel strongly in agreement with the sentiments that Frank describes above.

[Chickenboy]

ORIGINAL: USS America

I only know two German citizens personally, one a good friend in Germany, and one an acquaintance, currently living in the US for work.  Both of them feel strongly in agreement with the sentiments that Frank describes above.

I know a small handful of German citizens myself and have had this very discussion with them. Frank's opinions are commonly shared amongst them as well. They reiterated the divergence between the 'official' political / media positions and those of common people.

ETA: Well, I can't say that we've discussed the cost of sugar, but they agree with the other sentiments shared. [;)]

[Ketza]

USA here!

I was in the Pizza Business working for Dominos Pizza for a long time. I left the corporate side and opened a Dominos Franchise of 7 stores in Syracuse and Ithaca, New York. Got married and had a child and we decided Syracuse was pretty much "the suck" after 7 years and I sold my business and we moved to the DC suburbs in Maryland because the schools were some of the best in the nation and the economy has always been strong.

Here it is 14 years later and that turns out to be one of the best decisions of my life. When the bad times hit in 2008 or so it did not really impact us in the DC metro area. I was laid off from an engineering company that made IED jammers for Marine vehicles in Iraq and Afghanistan when our contracts ran out but I bounced back in a few months and got a job I have love at the US Naval Academy. I did take a cut in pay but my wife and I always lived within our means so it has not really impacted our lifestyle. We live in a townhouse and are not house poor like some of our friends who bought houses that they should not have. Our house value has tripled since we bought it and we are taking out the equity just in case things get bad again.

My daughter is on the United States jump rope team and we traveled to Europe for the world competition last year. We spent 9 days in England and 5 days in France. We were grateful to be in a position financially to be able to do so when so many are struggling. We are indeed blessed to be able to take care of our family and allow our children to be successful in school and sports.

In my late 40s now and have done amazing things and been to amazing places. I hope to be able to keep living life to its fullest and am optimistic about the future.