Well the Euro project can go one of two ways now - and in the next few years we will at least know one way or the other; either the problems of the PIIGS will bring the whole thing down, or in a desperate bid to save the European Union, closer integration will be needed and a true Federal Europe will emerge.
No idea at this stage which way it will go - only that IMO we are nearing decision time.
Participating in History (OT)
Moderators: wdolson, MOD_War-in-the-Pacific-Admirals-Edition
RE: Participating in History (OT)
Now Maitland, now's your time!
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
Duke of Wellington to 1st Guards Brigade - Waterloo 18 June 1815
RE: Participating in History (OT)
Small story to our American friends. [;)]
There is a general issue with the EU that makes it inflexible and powerless
in a situation of economical crisis.
The EU was founded as an economical pact, not a political/military pact.
So, from basic structure it tried to enable cooperation of the the econimical powers
of nations, to create a counterweight to the US and Asian Market, without impacting anything
on a political, jurisdictional or military level.
Funnily as contradictive as the above is on first glance, it was sold to public exactly like this.
The problem is, that since the original definition was that of a large company, the EU did something
similar to what large companies do: Grow by either internal growth (a rare occurance these times), or,
and this is what happened over the last decae(s) by "buying" new members to increase headcount - with
all the negative effects this has, including the need to support low infrastructure regions, different
perspectives and points of view on internal and international politics, and so on.
At the same time it became obvious that if the EU wants to survive economically, it has to influence the
politics and jurisdiction on a very local level, where nations usually consider it their own right
to come to decisions. And gained this influence there over the last 10-15 years, more or less without
many not involved into politics noticing.
Contrary to US, politics in Europe is often considered good if it is not polemic, if its silent and efficient*,
and long raging speeches maybe remind many of someone from the middle of the last century, you know what I mean.
The EU is "silent" for so long that nobody knows what it does anymore. It does not sell the ideas, it does not
advertise, it does not appear as an organisation at all as long as public relations are concerned.
Now, with the economy of nations struggling to keep up, its the first time the EU needs to use
ALL the options it has to prevent the fragile structure from fallign apart, and this against a majority
of people who still see the EU as loose economical pact, where you are only able to join if your economy
is up to the high standards of the member countries, and the only perspective is economical gain (as it
was the basic idea of the EU long ago).
And suddently everybody has to pay for struggling nations which do not connect culturally or politically,
with money which people consider "theirs". Big surprize... [8|]
Ok, this may not be the best analysis of the situation, but hopefully it points out some of the issues
we are having in the Old World. [;)]
Edit:
* This comment was not meant in a negative way concerning US political behaviour. A politician in the
US just has a slightly different job description than one in most EU countries, even if in practice it
turns out pretty similar.
In the US a polititian´s job is to support/decide on expert opinions and information, and translate/transport them for/to
the public and media.
In the EU a polititian should be an expert in the first place (usually a task next to impossible), do
his/her job based on his/her expert knowledge, while communication skills and media interaction are rated "secondary"
attributes.
There is a general issue with the EU that makes it inflexible and powerless
in a situation of economical crisis.
The EU was founded as an economical pact, not a political/military pact.
So, from basic structure it tried to enable cooperation of the the econimical powers
of nations, to create a counterweight to the US and Asian Market, without impacting anything
on a political, jurisdictional or military level.
Funnily as contradictive as the above is on first glance, it was sold to public exactly like this.
The problem is, that since the original definition was that of a large company, the EU did something
similar to what large companies do: Grow by either internal growth (a rare occurance these times), or,
and this is what happened over the last decae(s) by "buying" new members to increase headcount - with
all the negative effects this has, including the need to support low infrastructure regions, different
perspectives and points of view on internal and international politics, and so on.
At the same time it became obvious that if the EU wants to survive economically, it has to influence the
politics and jurisdiction on a very local level, where nations usually consider it their own right
to come to decisions. And gained this influence there over the last 10-15 years, more or less without
many not involved into politics noticing.
Contrary to US, politics in Europe is often considered good if it is not polemic, if its silent and efficient*,
and long raging speeches maybe remind many of someone from the middle of the last century, you know what I mean.
The EU is "silent" for so long that nobody knows what it does anymore. It does not sell the ideas, it does not
advertise, it does not appear as an organisation at all as long as public relations are concerned.
Now, with the economy of nations struggling to keep up, its the first time the EU needs to use
ALL the options it has to prevent the fragile structure from fallign apart, and this against a majority
of people who still see the EU as loose economical pact, where you are only able to join if your economy
is up to the high standards of the member countries, and the only perspective is economical gain (as it
was the basic idea of the EU long ago).
And suddently everybody has to pay for struggling nations which do not connect culturally or politically,
with money which people consider "theirs". Big surprize... [8|]
Ok, this may not be the best analysis of the situation, but hopefully it points out some of the issues
we are having in the Old World. [;)]
Edit:
* This comment was not meant in a negative way concerning US political behaviour. A politician in the
US just has a slightly different job description than one in most EU countries, even if in practice it
turns out pretty similar.
In the US a polititian´s job is to support/decide on expert opinions and information, and translate/transport them for/to
the public and media.
In the EU a polititian should be an expert in the first place (usually a task next to impossible), do
his/her job based on his/her expert knowledge, while communication skills and media interaction are rated "secondary"
attributes.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
Greeting from France,
Opposition to the EU is not new, it is growing here, but the mainstream parties, who all support the EU and Euro, are still very dominant. It has to be said that resentment against the EU is often caused by our own governments, who love to claim successes at theirs, and blame failures on Europe.
I don't think the euro can disappear anytime soon, and I believe Germany will do its utmost to support it. If we have the DM, and Franc, and Lira back, the DM will rise while other currencies drop. This means a less competitive Germany (export wise) and smaller markets for her industry (the eurozone countries are her main trading partners, the euro protects her against competitive devaluations, and various EU laws allow for a very open market), and therefore less funding for her debt and social system (in Germany, like in France, social security is mostly funded by taxes on the workforce: if the economy goes fine, you can fund lots of benefits, when it gets bad you're in trouble, since you can't fund the benefits at the time you'd need them most...).
We, the people of the big euro countries love to rant about having to pay for the greeks or irish, but conveniently forget the nice market the eurozone is providing us... (somehow, the rant about the Greek reminds me the rants about East Germans just after reunification).
As for Dexia, it has very little to do with the PIGS. Its French component used to be a state controlled bank that lended to administrations (cities, townships, etc.). Over the last 30 years, local administrations saw their responsibilities and budgets increase, and funded some of this increase through borrowing. Since the common wisdom was that administrations, like states, could not default, they lended very unwisely (and sometimes used very creative interest rate formulae). And all the "good debt" they owned made the merging of the french outfit and its Belgian counterpart (which formed Dexia) a very rosy prospect. Well... until everyone panicked and decided that admins could default, and all this good debt suddenly became toxic. Dexia is a subprime-like crisis.
I think the idea that the current crisis is an european affair is deeply mistaken. To me, there is only one crisis, that results from the policy, followed by all Western states since WWII, of investing people's retirement money on the financial markets. This created lots of "free money", which sometimes fed investment, often created bubbles, and tended to be used, in Ponzi-like fashion, to finance lavish social systems.
But now, the first generations concerned by this system (aka babyboomers) are retiring, and wanting their money back, with the interests and all that.
The first shock was funded by the states, which went broke in the process, and now more people are arriving, and wanting their money back, and the states are broke, and developped and emergent states all hope this money can be used to fund their recovery and their growth... (and, as usual, some banks in the private sector are taking advantage of the situation to try to get their bad debt funded by the states)
The US was hit harder by the first crisis, now it is Europe, but the underlying problem is global, and has not been resolved.
Francois
Opposition to the EU is not new, it is growing here, but the mainstream parties, who all support the EU and Euro, are still very dominant. It has to be said that resentment against the EU is often caused by our own governments, who love to claim successes at theirs, and blame failures on Europe.
I don't think the euro can disappear anytime soon, and I believe Germany will do its utmost to support it. If we have the DM, and Franc, and Lira back, the DM will rise while other currencies drop. This means a less competitive Germany (export wise) and smaller markets for her industry (the eurozone countries are her main trading partners, the euro protects her against competitive devaluations, and various EU laws allow for a very open market), and therefore less funding for her debt and social system (in Germany, like in France, social security is mostly funded by taxes on the workforce: if the economy goes fine, you can fund lots of benefits, when it gets bad you're in trouble, since you can't fund the benefits at the time you'd need them most...).
We, the people of the big euro countries love to rant about having to pay for the greeks or irish, but conveniently forget the nice market the eurozone is providing us... (somehow, the rant about the Greek reminds me the rants about East Germans just after reunification).
As for Dexia, it has very little to do with the PIGS. Its French component used to be a state controlled bank that lended to administrations (cities, townships, etc.). Over the last 30 years, local administrations saw their responsibilities and budgets increase, and funded some of this increase through borrowing. Since the common wisdom was that administrations, like states, could not default, they lended very unwisely (and sometimes used very creative interest rate formulae). And all the "good debt" they owned made the merging of the french outfit and its Belgian counterpart (which formed Dexia) a very rosy prospect. Well... until everyone panicked and decided that admins could default, and all this good debt suddenly became toxic. Dexia is a subprime-like crisis.
I think the idea that the current crisis is an european affair is deeply mistaken. To me, there is only one crisis, that results from the policy, followed by all Western states since WWII, of investing people's retirement money on the financial markets. This created lots of "free money", which sometimes fed investment, often created bubbles, and tended to be used, in Ponzi-like fashion, to finance lavish social systems.
But now, the first generations concerned by this system (aka babyboomers) are retiring, and wanting their money back, with the interests and all that.
The first shock was funded by the states, which went broke in the process, and now more people are arriving, and wanting their money back, and the states are broke, and developped and emergent states all hope this money can be used to fund their recovery and their growth... (and, as usual, some banks in the private sector are taking advantage of the situation to try to get their bad debt funded by the states)
The US was hit harder by the first crisis, now it is Europe, but the underlying problem is global, and has not been resolved.
Francois
RE: Participating in History (OT)
I also think that Europe is much more dependable on a stable economy than the US.
In the US, when a state goes bankrupt, theres not so much to lose. It pays for not much
more than basic infrastructure. The population provides the rest.
In Europe a state pays for social security, medical care, pensions, hands out bonusses
to pregnants, (at least partly) influences wages,...so the impact of bankruptcy is a bit higher
I think. Not for the individual, but for the state as a whole.
In the US, when a state goes bankrupt, theres not so much to lose. It pays for not much
more than basic infrastructure. The population provides the rest.
In Europe a state pays for social security, medical care, pensions, hands out bonusses
to pregnants, (at least partly) influences wages,...so the impact of bankruptcy is a bit higher
I think. Not for the individual, but for the state as a whole.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
Hi LoBaron,
I very much agree. In my opinion, social security systems are the glue that keeps western european societies together. Look at all debats on migrants: they always revolve around social benefits. As such, telling the Greek (or any other country) to just "dump the social" won't work. Social security will be the last thing to go.
As for the US, note that whereas they do spend less than europeans, their subsidized social system (pensions and medicare) still represents about 15% of GDP (vs 20% in Western Europe, but higher than some European countries).
Francois
I very much agree. In my opinion, social security systems are the glue that keeps western european societies together. Look at all debats on migrants: they always revolve around social benefits. As such, telling the Greek (or any other country) to just "dump the social" won't work. Social security will be the last thing to go.
As for the US, note that whereas they do spend less than europeans, their subsidized social system (pensions and medicare) still represents about 15% of GDP (vs 20% in Western Europe, but higher than some European countries).
Francois
-
whippleofd
- Posts: 617
- Joined: Fri Dec 23, 2005 1:40 am
RE: Participating in History (OT)
I was there for Operation Praying Mantis and got to listen to it unfold as I watched it unfold.
How's that for participating in history? [:D][:D]
Whipple
How's that for participating in history? [:D][:D]
Whipple
MMCS(SW/AW) 1981-2001
1981 RTC, SD
81-82 NPS, Orlando
82-85 NPTU, Idaho Falls
85-90 USS Truxtun (CGN-35)
90-93 USS George Washington (CVN-73)
93-96 NFAS Orlando
96-01 Navsea-08/Naval Reactors
1981 RTC, SD
81-82 NPS, Orlando
82-85 NPTU, Idaho Falls
85-90 USS Truxtun (CGN-35)
90-93 USS George Washington (CVN-73)
93-96 NFAS Orlando
96-01 Navsea-08/Naval Reactors
-
Pascal_slith
- Posts: 1657
- Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2003 2:39 am
- Location: In Arizona now!
RE: Participating in History (OT)
Late to the game here too.
I've worked for over 22 years as a portfolio manager, doing analysis, risk management and trading, mainly in Europe and the Middle East (over 16 years) and the past 6 back here in the US. In my line you have to be flexible as to where you work (especially if you don't want to work and live in New York City), so when an opportunity called in Arizona, I went for it but did not move my family, who remain back in Southern California (for various reasons). I have another colleague who commutes from Chicago to here in Phoenix for work.
I believe this kind of pattern will increase in the near future, i.e. working far from 'home'. With the general economy the way it is, you go where the opportunities are and accept the (hopefully temporary) split with family.
Watching and analyzing the global economy, financial markets, and politics is an integral part of my professional work, for I am the risk manager of a medium-sized public pension fund. As many of you have said here, things are not well and the probabilities of it getter far worse are significant.
I've worked for over 22 years as a portfolio manager, doing analysis, risk management and trading, mainly in Europe and the Middle East (over 16 years) and the past 6 back here in the US. In my line you have to be flexible as to where you work (especially if you don't want to work and live in New York City), so when an opportunity called in Arizona, I went for it but did not move my family, who remain back in Southern California (for various reasons). I have another colleague who commutes from Chicago to here in Phoenix for work.
I believe this kind of pattern will increase in the near future, i.e. working far from 'home'. With the general economy the way it is, you go where the opportunities are and accept the (hopefully temporary) split with family.
Watching and analyzing the global economy, financial markets, and politics is an integral part of my professional work, for I am the risk manager of a medium-sized public pension fund. As many of you have said here, things are not well and the probabilities of it getter far worse are significant.
So much WitP and so little time to play.... 
RE: Participating in History (OT)
USA here!
My daughter is on the United States jump rope team and we traveled to Europe for the world competition last year. We spent 9 days in England and 5 days in France. We were grateful to be in a position financially to be able to do so when so many are struggling. We are indeed blessed to be able to take care of our family and allow our children to be successful in school and sports.
[/quote]
Pardon me. I just found it funny. United States jump rope team! I'm sorry. It just struck me as funny.
This is one Czech that doesn't bounce.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
The problem is if the Euro fails it would lead to a depression which would be worse than the 1929 crisis, and we all know what kind of people came to power because of that crisis. Not all democracies are strong enough to resist populism of the like that certain parties have in Europe. Remember Europe before the EEC was always have some kind of problem or another, so the most important thing that the EU treaty gave to Europe was peace and prosperity. Nobody likes what's happening to the PIIGS but we either help or go down with them.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
ORIGINAL: che200
The problem is if the Euro fails it would lead to a depression which would be worse than the 1929 crisis, and we all know what kind of people came to power because of that crisis. Not all democracies are strong enough to resist populism of the like that certain parties have in Europe. Remember Europe before the EEC was always have some kind of problem or another, so the most important thing that the EU treaty gave to Europe was peace and prosperity. Nobody likes what's happening to the PIIGS but we either help or go down with them.
Absolutely. The advantage to back then may be the average educational level of most of the countries is higher now, but that
doesn´t prevent you neccessarily from repeating the same mistakes.
History is only of value if you try to understand it and draw the right conclusions.
Thats probably why many of us are interested in historical conflicts. [:)]
RE: Participating in History (OT)
ORIGINAL: Schanilec
USA here!
My daughter is on the United States jump rope team and we traveled to Europe for the world competition last year. We spent 9 days in England and 5 days in France. We were grateful to be in a position financially to be able to do so when so many are struggling. We are indeed blessed to be able to take care of our family and allow our children to be successful in school and sports.
Pardon me. I just found it funny. United States jump rope team! I'm sorry. It just struck me as funny.
[/quote]
It is actually a very popular world sport. Our biggest competition from Europe is Belgium.
http://www.usajrf.org/
It has given my daughter and our family the opportunity to travel and compete all over the world.
Just so happens she is good at it! [:D]
She is part of this group at the Macys day parade in 2009:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4O63oyeRn4
RE: Participating in History (OT)
Yes they are more educated but the opportunists/anarchists are still there and they are the ones you hear most in times of crisis. Hopefully Greece will come out of the black hole before it drags all in with them.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
Hi Frank,
I do not oppose your view as stated in your last message.
In fact I share most of the view points presented by you (especially yielding power to Brussels and the lack of constitutional regulations).
I still feel it is questionable to say "People in Germany clearly hate the EU".
In fact, most people (according to polls you seem to be fond of) welcome the peaceful development of the last decades and enjoy the convinience of freely travelling across the national borders ("Schengener Treaty").
It is a sad fact that many politicians as well as many media people do not distinguish between the political and economical develoment. Instead they try to make us believe the welfare of large financial enterprises is directly connected to a peaceful development in Europe.
I do not share this view.
I do not oppose your view as stated in your last message.
In fact I share most of the view points presented by you (especially yielding power to Brussels and the lack of constitutional regulations).
I still feel it is questionable to say "People in Germany clearly hate the EU".
In fact, most people (according to polls you seem to be fond of) welcome the peaceful development of the last decades and enjoy the convinience of freely travelling across the national borders ("Schengener Treaty").
It is a sad fact that many politicians as well as many media people do not distinguish between the political and economical develoment. Instead they try to make us believe the welfare of large financial enterprises is directly connected to a peaceful development in Europe.
I do not share this view.
WitP/AE
1.7.11.26b
Data base changes by Andy Mac October 16, 2012
Scen #1 Allied vs AI Level Hard Daily Turns
Art Mods by TomLabel and Reg
Topo Map by chemkid
WitW / Torch
1.01.37 - 1.01.44 beta
1.7.11.26b
Data base changes by Andy Mac October 16, 2012
Scen #1 Allied vs AI Level Hard Daily Turns
Art Mods by TomLabel and Reg
Topo Map by chemkid
WitW / Torch
1.01.37 - 1.01.44 beta
RE: Participating in History (OT)
Youre right, though I do rate the chances ok for regions come out of the black holes.
Every nation or large gremium knows, economy is so intertwined globally meanwhile that if a significant part collapses - independent
on whether its the EU, North/South America, or the Asian economies - it would draw the whole world with it.
This knowledge is available to a lot of people in right positions, contrary to the 30´s of the last century, so I expect a LOT of effort put into crisis regions independent
on size. It might not prevent the need of widespread or significant changes, but it will ease the blow I guess.
Every nation or large gremium knows, economy is so intertwined globally meanwhile that if a significant part collapses - independent
on whether its the EU, North/South America, or the Asian economies - it would draw the whole world with it.
This knowledge is available to a lot of people in right positions, contrary to the 30´s of the last century, so I expect a LOT of effort put into crisis regions independent
on size. It might not prevent the need of widespread or significant changes, but it will ease the blow I guess.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
ORIGINAL: Ketza
ORIGINAL: Schanilec
USA here!
My daughter is on the United States jump rope team and we traveled to Europe for the world competition last year. We spent 9 days in England and 5 days in France. We were grateful to be in a position financially to be able to do so when so many are struggling. We are indeed blessed to be able to take care of our family and allow our children to be successful in school and sports.
Pardon me. I just found it funny. United States jump rope team! I'm sorry. It just struck me as funny.
It is actually a very popular world sport. Our biggest competition from Europe is Belgium.
http://www.usajrf.org/
It has given my daughter and our family the opportunity to travel and compete all over the world.
Just so happens she is good at it! [:D]
She is part of this group at the Macys day parade in 2009:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4O63oyeRn4
[/quote]
It's just me. I got caught off guard on the jump rope team. This seems to be one of those things that the Chinese will get really good at and unbeatable. My thumbs-up to you and your daughter.
This is one Czech that doesn't bounce.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
It's just me. I got caught off guard on the jump rope team. This seems to be one of those things that the Chinese will get really good at and unbeatable. My thumbs-up to you and your daughter.ORIGINAL: Schanilec
ORIGINAL: Ketza
ORIGINAL: Schanilec
USA here!
My daughter is on the United States jump rope team and we traveled to Europe for the world competition last year. We spent 9 days in England and 5 days in France. We were grateful to be in a position financially to be able to do so when so many are struggling. We are indeed blessed to be able to take care of our family and allow our children to be successful in school and sports.
Pardon me. I just found it funny. United States jump rope team! I'm sorry. It just struck me as funny.
It is actually a very popular world sport. Our biggest competition from Europe is Belgium.
http://www.usajrf.org/
It has given my daughter and our family the opportunity to travel and compete all over the world.
Just so happens she is good at it! [:D]
She is part of this group at the Macys day parade in 2009:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4O63oyeRn4
[/quote]
The Chinese are already there. I went to a Cirque de Soleil show last weekend and one of the acts was a Chinese jump rope troope. Their finale was a three high human pyramid jumping rope faster than I could comprehend. Utterly amazing. Me thinks your daughter is our last best hope to compete with those guys.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
ORIGINAL: fcharton
As for the US, note that whereas they do spend less than europeans, their subsidized social system (pensions and medicare) still represents about 15% of GDP (vs 20% in Western Europe, but higher than some European countries).
Francois
The difference is really this small? Did not expect this.
RE: Participating in History (OT)
ORIGINAL: LoBaron
The difference is really this small? Did not expect this.
In the US, Social Security (ie pensions and welfare for the old) represents 7% of GDP, Medicare/aid is just a little lower (and you'd need to add smaller expenses related to the social system). Also, some northern european countries (and France and Germany) are closer to 30 than 20%.
Here are a few old data, from Wikipedia, but you can find more recent ones, I'm sure
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_state
Look the PIIGS up, you'll see they're not the "welfarest states" (Ireland has less social expenditures than the US, for instance).
There's a lot of misunderstanding about those issues. Many europeans picture North America as a place where old people are left to starve or die for medieval diseases in the streets, while some Americans picture Europe as North Korea with white people in it. There's also a lot of politics involved too...
Francois
RE: Participating in History (OT)
After the Obama Reforms ?
-
Canoerebel
- Posts: 21099
- Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2002 11:21 pm
- Location: Northwestern Georgia, USA
- Contact:
RE: Participating in History (OT)
ORIGINAL: fcharton
There's a lot of misunderstanding about those issues. Many europeans picture North America as a place where old people are left to starve or die for medieval diseases in the streets, while some Americans picture Europe as North Korea with white people in it. There's also a lot of politics involved too...
Francois
You're kidding about how many Europeans view North Americans?
I know you're wrong about some Americans viewing Europe as "North Korea with white people in it." I've never caught the slightest whiff that any American thought anything like that.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.