Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[Cribtop]

What about reprising your invasion at Moulmein, then marching up the enemy's posterior at Magwe after re-taking Rangoon? A short hook rather than long, and possibly dangerous depending on enemy LBA strength, but it's a thought. Alternatively, what about a campaign to re-take Singers? Let him feed all his LCUs into twin fur balls in Sumatra and Burma and then land at Georgetown and drive on the chewy nougat center of his position? Riskier, but rewardier.

[John 3rd]

I like Cribtop's idea. Go for Singers!

[Canoerebel]

Steve is alert to a move on Malaya. For instance, I'm getting repeated SigInt that Guards Tank Division is posted at Tavoy. That's a huge commitment of a big asset (if my memory of that unit's strength is accurate) that could be used elswhere. It's there just to guard against an invasion of Malaya. If Tavoy is garrisoned, I feel sure Moulmein is too.

In addition, Steve seems to be strongly reinforcing Burma, so there's alot of traffic to and from Rangoon and Singers. This includes combat shipping, needed for escort duty because the Allies previously stung some transports around Tavoy. There's a fair bit of enemy aircraft at Rangoon, and I suspect also at Georgetown and/or Victoria Point. IE, Malaya is quite possibly a hornet's nest now.

But the Allies accomplish nearly as much - or maybe more - by occupying and strongly building the bases in the Java Sea and South China Sea, and at less risk. I say "maybe more" because my plan is an extension and strengthening of the current Allied deployment in the DEI. Taking control of the western Java Sea severs the direct Japanese LOC from Singers to Batavia and Soerabaja. The airfields also offer better shots at Balikpan and Miri. And the Allies should be able to use FT to secretly insert garrison units and supply before Steve catches wind of what's going on. When he does its going to create a huge problem problem for him that he has to address at the same time he has so many other problems to address.

This is one of those complex situations where I can just "feel" that this move is right. Possibly there's a more aggressive move out there that might accomplish more, but I think any of them would entail more risk too. It's only August '42, and for the Allies to be moving forward with a plan to close the Java Sea sounds fairly aggressive. Especially since this region is in my own front yard, where any enemy countermeasures can be whacked and good by Allied LBA.

[princep01]

Agree with CRs view. I normally advise the most aggressive counter move feasible, but in this case, I advise a bit of caution. Getting a strong footing in western Sumatra makes a lot of sense should he move against eastern Sumatra. Moving into Malaya is maybe a little premature as it appears both Rangoon and Singers are well protected with numerous LBA and LCUs currently. Western Sumatra is doable without tremendous risk if the LYBs are tied down fighting in Burma and easterm Sumatra. It creats the opportunity to trap the eastern Sumatran army and build some really nice bases to close off sea traffic to Rangoon, flank Singers and partially isolate Burma. Ocuppying it in force might even force the LYBs to pull out without a big fight (but, probably not).

[witpqs]

At a time when Steve needs to be expanding to his final perimeter you have managed to cause him to use lots of land and sea assets defensively - that's a major success. Invading Western Sumatra behind his invasion of/advance on Eastern Sumatra would present both great uncertainties and supply problems for him.

[Canoerebel]

Thanks for the support for a western Sumatra invasion....but did I make it clear that I have decided to stand it down? Instead, I'm sending those troops to Padang and to the bases in and around the western Java Sea? [:)] Whether I made that clear or not, that's what I'm doing. Some of you may be tempted to exlaim, "What? I like the Sabang invasion better!" I just think there is an immediate payoff where the original plan was much more iffy, depending in part upon timing that might not ever arrive. So, the die is cast, I've switched troop prep, and I'm forging ahead.

[Cribtop]

CR, I don't blame you for taking this course. My suggestion assumed - wrongly - that the Krab Peninsula and Malaya were lightly garrisoned or would soon become so due to the developing battles in Burma and Sumatra. You are acting on a similar idea, but your knowledge of the situation is telling you that the islands you mention are the chewy nougat, and your analysis of the value of these islands once built up is accurate. The only downside is the risk of isolation by the IJN, but even that should give opportunities to attrit the IJN.

[witpqs]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thanks for the support for a western Sumatra invasion....but did I make it clear that I have decided to stand it down? Instead, I'm sending those troops to Padang and to the bases in and around the western Java Sea? [:)] Whether I made that clear or not, that's what I'm doing. Some of you may be tempted to exlaim, "What? I like the Sabang invasion better!" I just think there is an immediate payoff where the original plan was much more iffy, depending in part upon timing that might not ever arrive. So, the die is cast, I've switched troop prep, and I'm forging ahead.

I might have misunderstood, but I thought you were standing down an imminent invasion of Western Sumatra in favor of some other actions plus a possible Western Sumatra invasion if and when Eastern Sumatra is heavily invaded?

It's that last piece that I think has special merit, only because of how deeply your forces are dug in on Eastern Sumatra. When/if he does put major forces ashore to the east, he might well be depending upon supply flow from the west after his expeditionary force takes Padang (presuming there is more coming). But of course you only have so many troops and PPs...

[princep01]

Oh, I understood. I was just saying that the western Sumatran invasion is advisable IF he really hits eastern Sumatra and really ties his troops up in trying to reduce the "fortress". I would opt for that rather than an outright invasion of Malaya IF he gets really embroiled in that effort. Frankly, I doubt he will. His offensive weight is elsewhere. He might even be looking at an attack on Hawaii from the current disposition of the KB. But, in all likelihood, I think it is there to guard against raids by you while he builds the perimeter in that area. Like witpgs said, your opponent is more on the defensive than the offensive now.

[Canoerebel]

An attack on Hawaii would be a worrisome thing since I've just drawn down the garrison for troops involved in the Santa Cruz and New Hebrides gambits. I considered the risk here. He could successfully invade, I think, but he'd have to bring the kitchen sink, which would leave the DEI open....and I'd be willing to trade Pearl Harbor for an ironclad grip in the DEI. I don't think a Hawaii invasion is going to happen, but the Allies could take advantage of it in a big way.

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: John 3rd

I like Cribtop's idea. Go for Singers!

I think that without total sea and air control, that major land campaigns are a big mistake at this point in the game. Especially w/ scen #2. If the Japanese player can reinforce then it is almost guaranteed that you will get bogged down. Better to take islands that are hard for him to take back and build up airbases.

[JeffroK]

Invade Hawaii, In August 42!

[Canoerebel]

Right now, I have 335 AV at Pearl Harbor behind seven forts. I have 88 fighters and 56 bombers at the base. I don't have any combat ships worth mentioning. Not exactly a bastion bristling with firepower, is it? [:)]

[Canoerebel]

8/9/92

Decisions, decisions!

DEI: Japanese subs are finding good pickings at Oosthaven, although the port is mined and patrolled by ASW ships and aircraft. Two APs took torps today, and several other good transports and a tanker got clobbered yesterday. Also, the subs got a look at my roster of APDs, which continue to do valuable service on runs to the islands to the north. I may need to stand down my APDs for a few days, or send them on a run or two to Padang, lest Steve catch wind of them and send combat ships to intercept. Most of a USA RCT and an Indian engineer unit are ashore at Billiton, where forts are at level one. 22nd East African unit just arrived at Oosthaven and will go to Toabali when the APDs are available again.

Padang: A very sharp repulse for the Allied garrison at Padang as it again attacks the two tank regiments. This time, the Japanese units did show a "negative" for supply, which is very encouraging. Patrols report the two divisions (21 and 38) on the road between Sibolga and Padang. The first is probably only a week or ten days out. However, recon reports just one small enemy unit at Sibolga and no other units between the two bases. This means Steve has nothing big coming in the near term, which is a relief. The Allies already have reinforcements at sea (6th UK Brigade) for Padang. This TF will arrive in a week or less.

CenPac and SoPac: More detection levels reported over the TFs at Ndeni. One is at 1/1 and another at 4/4. The jig is up! Surprise is lost now. But the Allies do have 186 AV ashore with a Sea Bee unit and part of an EAB. A big part of that transport TF is just one hex out, but I think I'm going to have to flee the scene. Patrols didn't catch wind of the KB up at Kwajalein, nor did they report Hiyo/Junyo around Fiji. There is a pretty fair chance Steve is responding to the situation at Ndeni. It's much sooner than I had hoped, but if he's alarmed then that's good. I will cling to the hope that the Allies can still go into Vanua Lava and Luganville, though those hopes might be fast fading. If those missions are scrubbed, I have two large TFs loaded with some good infantry. I might use one to reinforce Makin Island and the other possibly to reinforce Pago Pago, though I need supply and reinforced CAP there more than anything.

NoPac: Quiet here as the Allies work to assemble the next "insertion of supply and troops" TFs north of Attu Island. It will be five or six days before they're ready to make the run into Para.

Burma: The IJ army at Magwe still hasn't attacked. Tomorrow, the Allied army receives 200 AV reinforcements, bringing to total AV to about 700. Allied 2EB are doing good work, in part because Japan's LRCAP is weak. The only base close by is Toungoo and it is level one. The Allies, on the other hand, have plenty of airfields nearby with a decent number of RAF fighter squadrons. I feel sure Steve is bringing in heavy ground reinforcements, so the situation will remain tense and fluid well into the future. But the Allies would like Burma to serve as a sponge, soaking up infantry that might otherwise be deployed on Sumatra.

[zuluhour]

possible for pic of the Sumatra-Java area?

[Canoerebel]

Today was 8/9/42.  I posted a map of the eastern Sumatra region for the 8/1/42 turn (see post 1757 on pg. 59).  That'll orient you to the Allied position.  Since that post, the Allies have landed 75 AV and part of an engineer unit at Billiton Island, and two enemy tank regiments have arrived at Padang.  Otherwise, things are essentially identical.

On a separate note, Japan not only has low detection levels on two TFs at Ndeni, but also 2/2 detection on the base itself.  Unless Steve is really asleep, this has his full attention.  In fact, he may be just a mite panicked (I can hope, can't I?).  To further raise his alarm level, I went ahead and transferred a PBY squadron to Ndeni.  All of the very valuable AP and AK will depart the port tonight and head east.  They are a bit exposed, but I'll try to extract them.  The other two big amphibious TFs, also comprised of APs, will lag far back in the Canton/Christmas Island vicinities until I evaluate the threat.

Too much fun!

[ny59giants]

You should be getting 8 to 10 SC somewhere in the USA in mid-August. Attach them to a TF that is headed for Australia. Eventually, get them up to Sumatra to be your ASW ships. You get so many that you can afford to lose some, but their ASW weapons should do some damage on his subs in a base hex. Not a quick fix, but use them wisely. I'm a few weeks behind you now, so I'm deciding where to place them. A 18 plane Kingfisher set on ASW at 1000' with range of 2 and 2x ASW TF with 4 SC each should be enough. [;)]

[Canoerebel]

8/10/42

NoPac: The Allied fighters at Para are worn out. They are not going to win the air battle in the short term, but the fact that Japan is employing large numbers of fighters here instead of elsewhere is a help. I'm trying to figure out whether to make another run short term, or to instead wait for the situation to change or for winter conditions. If I choose a "wait and see" stance, Wasp and Maryland will remain on station just in case Japan tries an invasion.

CenPac and SoPac: The KB wasn't sighted around Kwajalein and the Hiyo/Junyo group seems absent from the Fiji theater. Meanwhile, Ndeni's new PBY patrols "lit up" two IJ merchantment convoys - one near Kirakira and the other at Tulagi. That'll prod Steve a bit. I feel sure he already has the KB headed this way to "take control of the situation." The most important Allied transports have cleared the immediate area. A few x-merchant ships remain behind to deliver supply and to offer Steve obvious targets (thus hopefully distracting him from the APs fleeing off to the east). The Allies have 190 AV ashore, so it will take a concerted action by Japan to take the base. Any such action should detract from Japanese activity elsewhere, hopefully offering some breathing space to get some supply to Pago Pago and reinforcements to Makin.

DEI: It doesn't look like Japan has more than the two divisions on the road between Sibolga and Padang. That won't be enough to take the base. By the time they arrive, the Allies should have another 200 AV present. If this evaluation based upon repeated recon is accurate, there's no major threat to the Allied position in eastern Sumatra from this direction for at least a month.

Philippines: The Japanese army at Malaybalay attacked and were handily repulsed. Steve will have to bring more.

Burma: Steve waited one day too many to attack at Magwe. 200 Allied AV arrived today in combat mode, bumpbing AV up to about 700. Japan got 1:2 odds with its 1200 AV army (both sides were adjusted radically downwards, so the 200 extra AV made a big difference). This situation is tense, but I do think Japan will have to bring in reinforcements to have a fair chance of winning.

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
You should be getting 8 to 10 SC somewhere in the USA in mid-August. Attach them to a TF that is headed for Australia. Eventually, get them up to Sumatra to be your ASW ships. You get so many that you can afford to lose some, but their ASW weapons should do some damage on his subs in a base hex. Not a quick fix, but use them wisely. I'm a few weeks behind you now, so I'm deciding where to place them. A 18 plane Kingfisher set on ASW at 1000' with range of 2 and 2x ASW TF with 4 SC each should be enough. [;)]

Good ideas, Michael. I have plenty of ASW aircraft patrols, but not the real good stuff. I also have some SCs on the way to theater via Capetown, but I'll keep in mind what you said when that big group arrives later this month.

[Miller]

What is the situation on the ground at Pago Pago? Is he making any progress in this white elephant undertaking???