Tokyo Rose was a Hussy! Chez (J) vs. Canoe (A)

[zuluhour]

maybe with this?

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Barb

Nobody dropped "learned" from the sky! (Well thats a slovak saying translated into english - not sure if it has the right meaning this way). I came on this by chance - when my friend complained about heavy ships losses in Guadalcanal scenario. It appeared, that he had his task forces set at Cruise Speed

I usually use TFs by classes - i.e. to have ships from as little classes as possible in a TF (there are some exceptions, like CLAA or destroyer leader CL/DD) - but 2-3 works well (like 4x Mogami CA, 1x Kuma CL, 4-6x Kagero DD).

Also smaller Task forces seem to be better at night (IIRC when more ships than 6 in a TF, their effectivenes is reduced a little). So having BB Pennsylvania + 3x DD and CL + 4xDD and DMS at separate task Forces should perform much better than a one big TF (1xBB, 1xCL, 7xDD, 1xDMS).

I never set a TF at cruise speed. Never have and never will. Mission speed is cruise speed for most purposes. Only thing I ever set to cruise speed is TFs with cripples in them. Some say this helps but I have my doubts.

[zuluhour]

this baby.

[Barb]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Barb

Nobody dropped "learned" from the sky! (Well thats a slovak saying translated into english - not sure if it has the right meaning this way). I came on this by chance - when my friend complained about heavy ships losses in Guadalcanal scenario. It appeared, that he had his task forces set at Cruise Speed

I usually use TFs by classes - i.e. to have ships from as little classes as possible in a TF (there are some exceptions, like CLAA or destroyer leader CL/DD) - but 2-3 works well (like 4x Mogami CA, 1x Kuma CL, 4-6x Kagero DD).

Also smaller Task forces seem to be better at night (IIRC when more ships than 6 in a TF, their effectivenes is reduced a little). So having BB Pennsylvania + 3x DD and CL + 4xDD and DMS at separate task Forces should perform much better than a one big TF (1xBB, 1xCL, 7xDD, 1xDMS).

I never set a TF at cruise speed. Never have and never will. Mission speed is cruise speed for most purposes. Only thing I ever set to cruise speed is TFs with cripples in them. Some say this helps but I have my doubts.

It was repaired in one of the first official patches - so ships will use cruise speed when cruising, but will speed up for action. I use cruise speed sometimes (esp. for convoys).

[Canoerebel]

8/16/42

CenPac: Enemy shipping - mainly carrier TFs - continue to flank Tarawa on either side, though the ones to the west seem to be moving NW as though heading to Tulagi or some other port. No action here today.

SoPac: Things have quited down around Pago Pago, though it will take me a few days or longer to get the fighters in place to try a supply run into the island. The two big transport TFs that were originally bound for Vanua Lava and Luganville have moved south from Christmas Island, will refuel at Tahiti, and then will move on to New Zealand. Given time, they're destinations will be Port Moresby and Milne Bay.

DEI: The Allies had fortunate timing in yesterday's successful shock attack at Padang, for today one of the IJA divisions arrived. Allied AV is about 595 with forts three and jungle terrain, so Steve will probably have to await arrival of his second divisions. Padang airfield is still hurting: runway damage declined from 71 to 57, but airfield service damage remained steady at 66. Fortunately, no new raids today, for I'm not sure the Allies are getting any fighters up in the air. The 6th UK Bde transports are two days out of Padang. Choices: bring them in, hold them back for a few days to let the airfield repair, or divert them to Benkolen. As best I can tell, Toabali and Billiton haven't drawn enemy attention yet (in the form of recon missions or combat ships). I'm 95% sure Steve is aware of this activity now.

China: The Allies will shock attack into lightly held Ichang tomorrow.

Burma: IJA shock attack at Magwe fails, though the Japanese are getting decent odds. This particular report is tough to interpret. The Allies suffered higher infantry losses, but Japan suffered disproprortionate non-combat and engineering losses. In fact, I think the IJ engineering unit evaporated. I can't figure out if Japan will need to wait a few days before attacking again, or whether it should do so tomorrow. Look at the report and tell me what you think:

Ground combat at Magwe (57,47)
Japanese Shock attack
Attacking force 32560 troops, 360 guns, 87 vehicles, Assault Value = 1088
Defending force 16701 troops, 327 guns, 228 vehicles, Assault Value = 742

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 458
Allied adjusted defense: 302

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 1)
Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), morale(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
1467 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 47 disabled
Non Combat: 42 destroyed, 42 disabled
Engineers: 57 destroyed, 7 disabled
Guns lost 3 (3 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Allied ground losses:
935 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 109 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 78 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Vehicles lost 21 (1 destroyed, 20 disabled)

Assaulting units:
48th Engineer Regiment
33rd Division
42nd Infantry Regiment
4th Guards Division
14th Guards Regiment
55th Mountain Gun Regiment
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
27th Infantry Division
BFF Brigade
23rd British Brigade
132nd Infantry Regiment
45th Recce Regiment
2nd Burma Brigade
16th Indian Brigade

[Canoerebel]

8/17/42

NoPac: Paramushiro ports went to level four. Thus, the August operation in the Kuriles has benefited the Allies one port level, an additional RCT to garrison Para, and about five or six IJN DDs sunk or damaged. The Allies have lost BB Pennsylvania, CL Trenton, and a decent number of xAKs. Also, Japan committed BB Kongo. CVE Chenango just arrived at Tacoma. Her squadron of 24 F4Fs will report for duty in the Aluetians. In a week, the Allies should be able to post 50 F4Fs and 25 P39s at Para to cover another supply and reinforcement run into the base.

CenPac: KB still loitering east of Tarawa (the western component of Shokaku and Zuikaku is no longer on my radar screens). CL Tenyru TF tangles with torpedo boats at Tarawa, sinking five of them. DD Arasho took one TT. Ndeni will go to level one port and airfield inside a week. Three Allied DDs and one xAK moved on from Ndeni to Rockhampton. That symbolizes the tenuousness of the Japanese LOC from Rabaul/Truk down to Fiji, Noumea and Savaii Island.

SoPac: Quiet at Pago Pago, but the Japanese have alot of aircraft at Savaii. It's going to be tough to resupply Pago Pago.

DEI: The Japanese come out on the short side in massed air attacks on Padang, losing more than 100 aircraft including 50 Sallys and 25 Bettys. The Allies lose 20 aircraft on the day. Steve will likely stand down his bombers for a few days, so the Allies will send in the 6th UK Bde. transports - they should arrive tomorrow or the day after. Enemy recon reported at Cocos Island - I think for the first time in the game. This base is strongly held (300 AV, four forts) with lots of aircraft and shipping, so that's something for Steve to mull over.

Burma: Second IJ shock attack at Magwe fails at 1:2 and doesn't touch the fort. Losses were fairly even and fairly light, but Steve will have to rest his guys for a few days. In the meantime, I hope that Allied 2EB can continue to attrit enemy strength. This is going to be a close battle, but I feel like I'm playing with house money here - I don't really need upper Burma; I just like the fact that Steve is giving it his attention.

China: The Chinese shock attack cross river and easily take Ichang, mauling an RCG division in the process. Steve is probably concerned that this is part of an larger campaign to take Sinyang. I'm going to encourage that perception, though I don't plan to move on that base.

[princep01]

CR, you asked about the loses on the battle at Magwe (8/16). It is apparent to me that, for whatever reason, the Japanese combat engineers took it in the neck reducing the Magwe forts. It is almost certain that the 48th Engineers went to visit their ancestors permanently. I cannot explain why their losses were so high, but the fact that the next day's attack was 1-2 and did not reduce the forts tells us who did die the day before.

It is also possible that losses among his support troops also contributed to the following days malaise. Again, I have no idea why the Japanese non-combatant losses were so high, I just notice they were.

Good job.

[Nemo121]

When you reduce a force below 50% of its total TO&E ( not 50% of its combat power but 50% of TO&E ) units which would have been disabled become destroyed. We all know that rule but this is how it plays out in combat - Smaller, independent units culminate sooner and take far greater losses in persistent combat than larger units. A smaller unit might lose 100 squads ( combined ) destroyed whereas a larger unit with the exact same AV might only lose 80 squads ( combined ) disabled vs the exact same force. Bigger, in AE, IS better - if you disregard the effect of aerial attacks, which of course you can't. Hence the need for balance and trade-offs.

So, as with all things in AE ground combat follows the Lanchester Laws but also has a very significant, predictable tipping point. In this CR the IJA Engineer unit tipped from receiving mostly disablements to actually receiving only destroyed units - and so many were destroyed that it evaporated. C'est la guerre.

This is why the combat model organically models the benefits of having an entire division in action vs 3 Regiments so well - even if overall AV would be identical. I'll make a post in STAVKA in the next few days explaining this since posting it here will jsut end up with it getting lost whenever the AAR finishes.

[Canoerebel]

8/18/42

NoPac: The transports are in position; the combat TF and Wasp TF are reprovisioned; and now we await arrival of Chenango's squadron of F4Fs, which reached Prince Rupert today. The second run into Para should occur within the week.

CenPac: KB still in position east of Tarawa with various other IJ TFs scattered about. So much activity in this area, so much force committed here, that I keep thinking Japan is about to invade something on a massive scale. But nothing yet. Ndeni port and airfield go to level one tomorrow. Tarawa forts go to level four in a day or two.

SoPac: The IJ ground troop AV seems to be dropping. Steve hasn't reinforced or made a supply run in awhile. He has too much here to give up, even with the developments in CenPac that undoubtedly concern him, but I'm keeping watch.

DEI: 6th UK Bde transports reached Padang today, but didn't have enough time to begin unloading. Enemy patrols did pick up these shipping, so I'm expecting a hot battle tomorrow. No enemy air attacks today, so the airfield is in better shape and I"ve bumped up the CAP. A fair bit of 6th Bde should come ashore no matter what happens during the daylight hours, and I think that will be enough to secure Padang against the two enemy divisions that will besiege the base. APDs take another infantry battalion to Billiton, which now has 157 AV and will soon have two forts. The terrain is jungle and the base is under the massive air umbrella from Palembang and Oosthaven, so Japan is going to have a challenge dealing with this new threat.

Burma: No attacks today. Both sides continue jockeying about seeking an advantage.

[vettim89]

Been thinking about this game and cosidering what you shold do next. From your somments I get the feel that while you are in an excellant position at the moment, you know that an overly bold move could cost you the gains your have already achieved. That said, I wonder what would be the best way to conduct the war from this point onward.

I have to think that this game hinges on the DEI in spite of Chez's overfascination with the SoPac and CentPac. I think you have done an excellant job of choosing your battles wisely. Nemo has pointed out in the past that some times the most critical decision to make is refusing battle when it is offered to you in a way that is unfavorable to your goals or dispositions. I think a lot of JFB do this in mid to late '42 in the mindset of "I need to do something". I just guess I would caution you against such a move (not that I think you would). The best thing you can do for Chez right now would be to overextend yourself and allow him a victory he really didn't earn. The only reason I bring this up is I know your past history. I know your tendency to attempt and often pull off a bold move mid-war. My position is that you already pulled off your bold move and now is the time to capitalize on it rather than formulate a new even bolder move.

So, from my reading I sense that both Java and Malaya are heavily guarded. If that is true, then Borneo seems to be the next best move. I am not saying right at this very moment but by the first of the year, you should be ready. Have your considered what your next move will be?

[Canoerebel]

No doubt the Allies, if allowed to remain on the offensive, will continue occupying and building the bases north of Sumatra - including islands like Billiton and some bases on Borneo. I'd choose bases not subject to attack by land campaign (that's why Java isn't in consideration). Thus, Ketapang would be preferable to Pontianak, for instance. The Allies still hold all these bases, so it is possible to occupy and build somewhat unobviously, which should create some consternation when discovered by the enemy.

Steve has to get over his fascination with the Pacific and take control in the DEI. I still assume that he's going to try eventually. He has enough firepower to stop the Allies from advancing during the remainder of 1942 and into early 1943. I don't think he has the power to wrest eastern Sumatra from the Allies at this point.

So, I envision a massive Japanese campaigin in the DEI that should result in a stalemate for quite some time. That should create opportunities in other theaters. The Allies will continue to work the Kuriles, CenPac, and SoPac trying to maintain current positions (and in some cases establish new ones) that will maintain pressure outside the DEI and provide good launching pads if the DEI goes stale for awhile.

[Canoerebel]

There's one other important objective in this game (like all AE games): to destroy the enemy carriers, thus driving your opponent to his knees in a quivering mass of tears and recriminations, from whence he shall come to concede the game. [:)]

Steve has repeatedly divided the KB throughout the game and continues to do so. I could send the Allies carriers over there in hopes of dealing a blow, but of course that would be iffy. It's a long way from Cocos Island to Tarawa. More importantly, I will not jeopardize the real key to the game - the defense of Sumatra. So Steve is more than welcome to continue flaunting the KB in CenPac. In fact, I hope he does so for many weeks to come.

[JeffroK]

Re Sumatra.

Have you developed the inland bases , Lahat etc.

These provide a bombardment safe backup to the coastal airbases.

[paullus99]

He's also wearing out his ships, keeping them at sea (moving from the DEI to the PAC & back over and over again) - which means that there will come a time when he's forced to move at least a goodly portion of his available ships (and carriers) back to Japan for refit. When that happens, it will open up all kinds of new opportunities for you as well.

[vettim89]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

There's one other important objective in this game (like all AE games): to destroy the enemy carriers, thus driving your opponent to his knees in a quivering mass of tears and recriminations, from whence he shall come to concede the game. [:)]

Steve has repeatedly divided the KB throughout the game and continues to do so. I could send the Allies carriers over there in hopes of dealing a blow, but of course that would be iffy. It's a long way from Cocos Island to Tarawa. More importantly, I will not jeopardize the real key to the game - the defense of Sumatra. So Steve is more than welcome to continue flaunting the KB in CenPac. In fact, I hope he does so for many weeks to come.

One has to consider that his dispositions in the CentPac are indeed nothing more than an attempt to trap you. He is trying to draw you into a fight there to weaken your position and ability to react in the DEI.

Consider this: you have on numerous occasions mentioned the hypothetical upcoming battle for Sumatra. Be careful here as you are in danger of locking your future plans into a strategic situation that may not develop. Worse, he can use your position in Sumatra against you which in my opinion is he second biggest error thus far. The first being that he allowed you to fortify the positions on Sumatra with very little interference. What he could have/should have done is when he realized you had so much combat force concentrated in a small area of the map is bypassed it and struck deep in Australia or elsewhere. Yes, we have discussed how the lack of Palembang's oil/fuel supply will have on the Japanese Economy, but if Steve is careful he can probably still be effective through 1943. The longer he goes without a major move into Sumatra may mean that it is becoming even more likely that he never will attempt it.

He may have decided to only commit enough force in Sumatra to keep you tied down. If that is a strategy he has or is considering, you have to be ready to exploit the opportunity. He has basically refused to engage you in any sort of long term battle of attrition thus far with the possible exception of Pago Pago. I think more so in Scen. 2 than Scen. 1, the Allies really need to get the Japanese to pour their air assets into some sort of meat grinder to whittle down the pilot pool if nothing else. The lack of such a battle has played to your favor so far but eventually you will not only want but need that battle to occur. Basically all you other moves are spoiling attacks at least to this point. That is okay because this is mid 1942 and that is where you need to be.

I guess my point is that you keep waiting for the "Battle of Sumutra" to start. What if it never happens? Then what are you going to do?

[princep01]

vettim, you raise some good points about there never being a battle for S. Sumatra. However, I really think CR has created a situation that gives him the luxury of taking his own good time to really shift to the offensive. Think about it; plan for it; prepare for it....yes, but he doesn't have to DO anything for a good while if he choses. Frankly, he has attrited the IJN CVs so much that I think he COULD shift to an aggressive track to engage and attempt to destroy more of the KB and supporting cast now, but it is not an urgent task and currently would entail some real risks.

Despite this being a Scen 2 game, CR is just going to get stronger and stronger in a relative sense. Look at what Greyjoy is doing in late 43 in his game against a really good player after being in such a hole. It is amazing how powerful the Allies become if they don't squander assets piecemeal. And, my man, CR has been really good at not making that mistake. I cannot say the same for Chez.

So, while I agree with your thoughts to an extent, there is a timing element involved here where we might diverge from one another.

[vettim89]

Princep101

I 100% agree with your point. I was not advocating offensive moves just bringing up the point that if Chez doesn't cooperate by attacking Sumutra, CR needs to have a contingency plan for how he will exploit that opening if it indeed happens. I think his low intensity expansion of his defensive perimeter that is ongoing is perfect for the current situation. The Allied air OOB will change significantly in about five or six months. That is a lot of time to wait for the Allies to cool their heels

[JeffroK]

Given the time, only 8/42, I would be happy to make sure I had a strong position in preperation for a counterpush in 1943.

Thats 4 mths at least to build bases and ports, grab the odd offering and get your forces into position.

There's no rush, you are only getting stronger and Chez still has a powerful force if only he works out what to do with it.

[Canoerebel]

8/19/42

A turn with small but interesting tidbits scattered here and there....

NoPac: Japanese bombings have neutered the Allied fighters and are beginning to register damage to Para's airfield. I'm still four or five days away from inserting 60 or 70 fighters to cover a re-supply run. This situation is dicey.

CenPac: Any thoughts that Chez might give up on his Pacific fixation is dminished by the arrival of Yamato at Tarawa (escorted only by DDs, another sign that Japan is running low on cruisers). I thought there was a decent chance Yamato had moved to the DEI. With her absent, the Allies are strong enough to handle Japanese combat vessels in that vital theater (barring one-sided losses, which do happen on occasion). Yamato bombarded Tarawa, tearing up the fighters based there. KB is still positioned to the east. I like Yamato and KB in CenPac.

SoPac: The IJ army at Pago Pago has suddenly begin bleeding AV on a daily basis. For months, the AV had creeped up to about 820, but over the last few days it has declined to about 780. I'm assuming lack of supply and Allied bombardments are the cause.

DEI: 133 AV of 6th UK Bde. came ashore at Padang unmolested. No enemy air strikes. APDs will bring in a goodly part of an American base force tonight, permitting more efficient air operations out of this base. Allied AV at this base is boosted to 720, which I think will be sufficient to handle what Japan can bring (roughly 1,000 AV in two divisions plus some a few mauled tank units). A big transport TF to carry several US units begins loading at Cochin, India. Up at Aden, transports begin loading to big RAF base forces bound for Toboali and Billiton Island, given time. CA Maya near Semereng targeted by unescorted B-25s out of Oosthaven, which get shredded by CAP. It's possible Steve is sending in the Maya/Kirishima TF to fight it out at Oosthaven. I hope so.

[Canoerebel]

8/20/42

NoPac: Chenango's F4F squadron is at Kodiak and should reach Attu Island, the jumping off spot for Para, in three days. That means the push of supplies and reinforcements to Para will take place in four or five days.

CenPac: The Japanese fleet that committed to Pago Pago for nearly four months is now committed up around Tarawa. CA Ashigara led a bombardment group that did light damage to a few merchants there. The Allies have nearly 50k supply at Tarawa - enough to tide things over for quite some time.

SoPac: Erosion to Japanese strength at PP continues - all bombardment damage today resulted in squads destroyed. None were damaged. This suggest that supply is a critically low. The Allies may have won the Pago Pago camapign simply by occupyng Ndeni. That's nice, but Tarawa and vicinity is more important to me than the Gilberts. On the other hand, I can't go toe-to-toe with the bulk of the Imperial Japanese Navy in the Gilberts, so my best course of action is to relax there and take advantage of the "vacuum" elsewhere.

DEI: 6th UK Bde. fully unloaded at Padang without incident. A USN Kingfisher squadron arrived here (thanks to a recent suggestion by NYGiants). This unit came in stages - Pearl to Palmyra to Canton to Tabituea to Ndeni to Palm Island to Darwin to Makassar to Oosthaven. Not all those bases had base force support, but enough to make it. Lots of sub activity here, so I'm hoping this squadron will make its presence known.