The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[crsutton]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Also, in my game with Miller (Scenario Two), sometime in 1943 the Allies got some kind of incredible recon unit flying long-range B-24s.* Base that somewhere like PM or Merauke and suddenly you can fly recon over Truk and Babeldaob. That's a stunt to pull at some point you want to rattle rader's cage.

*I'm assuming that unit is still present in the OOB, but that's not a certainty. There've been lots of changes - I just noticed that Auri, a base I took north of Darwin in my game vs. Miller, isn't a base in this game. In it's place is Dabo, a base on the opposite side of that island.

The Allies get the long range Navy Liberator in late 42 or early 43, so GJ must be using it. The Army F-4 Liberator comes on line in early 44 and the incredible long range B-29 will come somewhat later. It has amazing range.

[princep01]

I disagree re Merauke Isand's usefulness....unless you are committing to drive SOUTH of New Guinea toward the DEI. Given your course of action thus far in the Solomons, it did not look like that was intended. Rather, the neutralization of New Britain/Rabaul appeared to be the immediate strategic goal. Merauke plays little role in that.

Further, I personally favor a path along the north coast of New Guinea toward the Phillipines as the way to eventually cut the oil pipeline. I do not favor becoming embroilled in the morass of islands of the DEI proper. Of course it can be done and we have all read AARs where it was done. But, due to all the large, interconnected bases in the area, it can be very tricky. Great place to lose a fleet, BTW.

Taking bases along the northern coast of New Guinea has all the advantages offerred by every commentator on this subject, plus it advances your air reach considerably further in the direction you appeared to be going (Rabaul's isolation). Grabbing Gasmata (if it is unoccupied) and building an airbase there would have been a coup that would practically slam the door on the whole Solomons chain. No more head banging against heavily fortified islands in a frontal assault (though I often hear you banging you head against the dungeon walls and know how you enjoy that).

If the DEI is the target via a route south of New Guinea, bravo. CR raises some good points re the value of that axis of advance and Merauke has a role there. However, Reek, admit it now, that is NOT where you are aimed. So, again, why go there? It is a diversion from your near term strategic goal if I read the tea leaves properly.

BTW, on a less confrontational note, nice job on decimating the IJN air arm. Well done. But, if you think you need a breath, think how he is turning blue from the solar plexis blows you have administered over the last 4 days. Quite a wiping. Fun, huh, not to be on the receiving end. Keep the pressure on him. Be ready to counter punch immediatelly following these major efforts he launches from time to time. His response will be muted by the heavy losses.

Bleed him, Reek, Bleed him to the whiteness of new snow.

[JeffroK]

princep01
You are assuming that all are saying use the south coast as your main thrust, IMHO what is being said is that Merauke is a position that can support a north coast thrust, threaten a south coast push and provide a base on the left flank to support the Pt Moresby hub.

While an undefended Gasmata might be a good target, do you know if its defended???    Merauke was empty.

rader now has another area to worry about, as mentioned he has to "garrison" a whole new line of approach which is real or may be a feint. A commitment of a Bde of "fragile" Aussie or NZ Militia (meaning low replacement rates) plus engineers shows enough strength to set raders mind working and too big to kickout quickly.

I am not a fan of the DEI approach from Darwin, there are a lot of island bases in between Darwin and the Home Islands. A couple of AAR have shown it to be a hard slog. At some point Greyjoy has to make a big step across the Pacific and given his lack of position in the Gilberts IMHO now has to approach from the south.

PS There is too much talk of "super rader", garrisons evreywhere, every island turned into Gibraltar!!  So far you have stopped his pushes and smashed him on your counter offensive, he cannot be perfect, you hear the continual cry from JFB on how slow their engineers work. Do a lot of recce and find that next weak spot, cut out some islands (go back only 1 layer, you havent whipped him yet) and get towards the softer sections of his defences.

Eagerly awaiting your next secret offensive.

[GreyJoy]

Sorry Master, but on this point i agree with Jeff, CR and others. Mereuake was an easy prey to grab and it sucks only limited resources in the overall picture. Comparing the little resources devoted to it (1 NZ Bde, 3 Seabees, 2 AUS base forces and the paras used to take it - the latters already on their way to be moved back to Horn Island for future operations), its position rapresents a threat to Rader's right SOPAC flank.

The whole PM, Milne Bay and Mereuake operations have already forced Rader to shif considerable forces back to NG (transports are spotted coming and going from Truk and Rabaul to Hansa Bay, Wewak, Lae etc etc...)...and this is already a victory per se...all these forces are not facing me anymore in the Solomons where Rader seems to have abbandoned (for the moment) any attempt to seriously counter me... almost all his air forces have been moved out, along with his naval assets...i count not more than 200 planes from Bouganville moving down on the map...Rabaul is full of ships and planes...with the KB among them... is he relocating his assets to NG?...could be...

Nov 13, 14, 15 and 16 1943

While Rader's counteroffensive in NG still lingers, Milne Bay reached level 1 AF and 1 Port...2 NZ Bdes, a RAAF base force a CD guns BN and several eng units are already based there, while Mereuake, as we've seen, is growing steady.
PM reached port 4 AF 7...with 300 fighters defending it.
In these days we've naval bombed Rekata Bay, Munda, Paggoe, Russell and Thousands...in the latters he's not evacuating anymore, nor my air nor by sea...his naval assets didn't come out to face my BBs, nor his Air forces ever tried to counter my moves... he's clearly re-organizing after the battles of last week.

Now i've ordered to the II Aus Corp to move from PM to Buna.
2 AUS divisions, 1 US Division and 1 AUS Bde, supported by 3 NZ tank units, 3 artillery and 3 Eng BNs are taking the Owen Stanley Mountains route.
Tomorrow we'll bomb Buna with 150 4Es from CookTown, preceeded by 25 P-47s and 18 Corsairs on sweep mission with 50 P-38s on LRCAP (thx Crsutton!).

in India we decided to move a little bit. 1 Indian corp, composed of the equivalent of 4 reinforced divisions will move south, right 1 hex west of Multan. The Corp should be well defended also in terms of AA guns... they will act as a road stopper in order to cover my right flank and prevent any move on my back from Multan.

At PM the air bridge is working perfectly....100k supplies already in place!

the sub war is lingering...we sunk a TK near Benjarmais and a PB near Madras yesterday...but we lost a sub in DEI waters due to his dreaded Helens.
He moved on the 14th his subs en masse near Rekata Bay and they got a bloody nose by our specialized Hudsons, Ansons and B-26s from Auki....we probably sunk 2 subs and badly damaged 3 more... he then immediately reitred them to Shortland...

What else? I'm using these days of relative calm to organize my convoys and chance some leaders. Always short on PPs but i have to live with it...

Heavy reinforcements are on their way for Oz...fuel remains a problem despite all my efforts...i barely have the fuel needed for my fleet...but reserves are always short...

Stay tuned...will be dancing soon

[jmalter]

ORIGINAL: JeffK
Eagerly awaiting your next secret offensive.

word.

grab on to what's on offer, build the airfields to advance your recon-eyeballs. Merauke's potential size-8 airbase could be v. powerful. one could wish that GJ would minimize his 4E losses a bit.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: jmalter

ORIGINAL: JeffK
Eagerly awaiting your next secret offensive.

word.

grab on to what's on offer, build the airfields to advance your recon-eyeballs. Merauke's potential size-8 airbase could be v. powerful. one could wish that GJ would minimize his 4E losses a bit.

To minimize them i'd need to sweep a lot more...and, at this stage, i'm still shifting from the defensive to the offensive and most of my fighters are badly needed to defend my bases...

However the 4Es situation isn't that grim... i have 250 operative 4Es with a pool of 40 Liberator mk.J....not bad

[beppi]

Again i little method i use for fuel transportation. I multiple CS tanker TFs, each in the size limited to the max port size in PH to shuttle fuel from Los Angeles to PH. From PH i use 1 big tanker convoy with all smaller tankers to shuttle fuel to Sydney or my current fleat HQ. In addition i use, depending on the situation, multiple TFs constisting of 100xAKs in transport mode to shuttle fuel from PH to the designated target. With a few hundred Naval support you can unload such a TF in a few days. If you use tankers to shuttle to smaller ports it takes forever. In addition all the xAK TFs are set to do not refuel to not drain the fuel they already delivered. It is possible to do a round trip from PH to SWPac with the usual xAKs. This helped a lot to keep my fleet fuel supplied.

[Canoerebel]

Well reasoned and well spoken, GJ. In any Scenario Two match, Japan can make the Allied advance very difficult given the extra troops available (moreso in your game due to China) and the more robust airforce and navy. The DEI is particularly suited to defensive warfare, so if you're satisfied rader is ready for an advance that way, I can see why you want to choose another path. Also, the fact that the Japanese airforce and naval airforce seems to be very weak, while the Allies have a full slate of carriers, suggests that you are in a much better position to take advantage of the big distances involved in an island-hopping campaign. IE, why give rader the chance to take advantage of multiple interlocking airfields in the DEI when you can pick and choose more isolated targets in the Pacific?

I like your thinking.

[CT Grognard]

ORIGINAL: crsutton

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Also, in my game with Miller (Scenario Two), sometime in 1943 the Allies got some kind of incredible recon unit flying long-range B-24s.* Base that somewhere like PM or Merauke and suddenly you can fly recon over Truk and Babeldaob. That's a stunt to pull at some point you want to rattle rader's cage.

*I'm assuming that unit is still present in the OOB, but that's not a certainty. There've been lots of changes - I just noticed that Auri, a base I took north of Darwin in my game vs. Miller, isn't a base in this game. In it's place is Dabo, a base on the opposite side of that island.

The Allies get the long range Navy Liberator in late 42 or early 43, so GJ must be using it. The Army F-4 Liberator comes on line in early 44 and the incredible long range B-29 will come somewhat later. It has amazing range.

I believe the photo-reconnaissance version of the B-29 (the F-13) has a range of over 80 hexes?

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: beppi

Again i little method i use for fuel transportation. I multiple CS tanker TFs, each in the size limited to the max port size in PH to shuttle fuel from Los Angeles to PH. From PH i use 1 big tanker convoy with all smaller tankers to shuttle fuel to Sydney or my current fleat HQ. In addition i use, depending on the situation, multiple TFs constisting of 100xAKs in transport mode to shuttle fuel from PH to the designated target. With a few hundred Naval support you can unload such a TF in a few days. If you use tankers to shuttle to smaller ports it takes forever. In addition all the xAK TFs are set to do not refuel to not drain the fuel they already delivered. It is possible to do a round trip from PH to SWPac with the usual xAKs. This helped a lot to keep my fleet fuel supplied.

Yes, i see that my "system" is far from being efficient...i use HUGE convoys...and they take forever to unload... will change asap as you just suggested beppi (i know you and NY59 have told me so long months ago...sorry)!

Still thanks

[Cribtop]

GJ, the tide has turned. Great job with the NG offensive. Now you can either Cartwheel him or flank Rabaul via the north NG coast.

Deep in your planning process, consider whether someday about the time you've taken Mindanao you will invade the Marianas or even the Bonins out of the blue.

[crsutton]

If the Allies have superior naval assets then the Central Pacific is a ripe way to go. It does minimize Japanese LBA assets. But be aware that at this point in the game or very soon to follow Rader's KB will be at optimum strength as well. With control of production he should have both the Taiho and Shinano,and all of the Amagi class carriers plus all conversions allowed to him in the course of the game. We are talking a very potent carrier force so caution is advised. However, the Allies are now strong enough (this is why you preserve your carriers in 42) to take him on in a head to head carrier clash and a drive in the Central Pacific might force that issue. Equal losses at this point would be an Allied victory.

[GreyJoy]

Guys, the Mariannas are probably a No-No in this game.
Rader has started to garrison and to build them since the beginning. I know for sure about 4 divisions (one of which is a guards division) and 3 regiments settled there...and i'm pretty sure by now he has got all over a level 9 forts...
 
My preferred route is: Northern Coast of NG -> Mindanao -> Luzon - > Formosa 
 
This will avoid the dreaded atolls and bypass the DEI defensive system.
 
I'm well aware that his carrier force is still mighty, and i know he can still bite hard...but his pilot quality should be lower than mine by now...so i don't fear a 1 vs 1 engagement, but i have to avoid a CVs+LBA vs CVs situatio and an 8-hexes attack...That's why i think the route chosen is the wiser one...
 
 

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Guys, the Mariannas are probably a No-No in this game.
Rader has started to garrison and to build them since the beginning. I know for sure about 4 divisions (one of which is a guards division) and 3 regiments settled there...and i'm pretty sure by now he has got all over a level 9 forts...

My preferred route is: Northern Coast of NG -> Mindanao -> Luzon - > Formosa 

This will avoid the dreaded atolls and bypass the DEI defensive system.

I'm well aware that his carrier force is still mighty, and i know he can still bite hard...but his pilot quality should be lower than mine by now...so i don't fear a 1 vs 1 engagement, but i have to avoid a CVs+LBA vs CVs situatio and an 8-hexes attack...That's why i think the route chosen is the wiser one...

In the case you're still interested in possible(or lets say, most likely) KB composition you're at some point going to meet in battle, its

Original 6 CVs, combined aircraft capacity is 432

2 Junyos plus Taiho and scen 2 Taiho-class Shinano - 250 aircraft

6 new Unryu class CVs - 6x63 makes 378

4 CVLs - 139 planes

3 Taiyo-CVEs, Shinyo, Kaiyo and Hosho(without upgrade) - 158

Those total 1357 aircraft + reserves and the 110% limit - so without reserves he might be able to have 1490 carrier A/C immediately available..

Rader will also soon have 4 capacity 22 CVLs if he upgrades the CSes - have you seen them lately? [;)] He may also get 2 capacity 12 and 2 capacity 8 CVEs early-mid 1944 at earliest, plus the capacity 18(I think) hybrid battleships, Ise and Fuso class.

But with your less vulnerable CVs, much better planes and especially pilots even 1:1 plane numbers are "modified" to maybe 2:1 to advantage. [:D][8D]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Erkki

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Guys, the Mariannas are probably a No-No in this game.
Rader has started to garrison and to build them since the beginning. I know for sure about 4 divisions (one of which is a guards division) and 3 regiments settled there...and i'm pretty sure by now he has got all over a level 9 forts...

My preferred route is: Northern Coast of NG -> Mindanao -> Luzon - > Formosa 

This will avoid the dreaded atolls and bypass the DEI defensive system.

I'm well aware that his carrier force is still mighty, and i know he can still bite hard...but his pilot quality should be lower than mine by now...so i don't fear a 1 vs 1 engagement, but i have to avoid a CVs+LBA vs CVs situatio and an 8-hexes attack...That's why i think the route chosen is the wiser one...

In the case you're still interested in possible(or lets say, most likely) KB composition you're at some point going to meet in battle, its

Original 6 CVs, combined aircraft capacity is 432

2 Junyos plus Taiho and scen 2 Taiho-class Shinano - 250 aircraft

6 new Unryu class CVs - 6x63 makes 378

4 CVLs - 139 planes

3 Taiyo-CVEs, Shinyo, Kaiyo and Hosho(without upgrade) - 158

Those total 1357 aircraft + reserves and the 110% limit - so without reserves he might be able to have 1490 carrier A/C immediately available..

Rader will also soon have 4 capacity 22 CVLs if he upgrades the CSes - have you seen them lately? [;)] He may also get 2 capacity 12 and 2 capacity 8 CVEs early-mid 1944 at earliest, plus the capacity 18(I think) hybrid battleships, Ise and Fuso class.

But with your less vulnerable CVs, much better planes and especially pilots even 1:1 plane numbers are "modified" to maybe 2:1 to advantage. [:D][8D]

1500 carrier a/c is really a lot mate! Thanks!

However my actual capacity is:
90 x 9 CVs = 810 +
30 x 4 CVLs = 90 +
23 (avg) x 9 CVEs = 207 (say 200

So i have a carrier force of 1100 a/c at the moment.

Plus i have 3 more CVEs and 2 CVLs that are re-grouping at PH...

So at the present moment it's something like 1100 vs 1300 probably...

What comes into consideration is the LBA variant... it is the LBA that may change the outcome of a carrier battle right now...

[Erkki]

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

1500 carrier a/c is really a lot mate! Thanks!

However my actual capacity is:
90 x 9 CVs = 810 +
30 x 4 CVLs = 90 +
23 (avg) x 9 CVEs = 207 (say 200

So i have a carrier force of 1100 a/c at the moment.

Plus i have 3 more CVEs and 2 CVLs that are re-grouping at PH...

So at the present moment it's something like 1100 vs 1300 probably...

What comes into consideration is the LBA variant... it is the LBA that may change the outcome of a carrier battle right now...

Indeed! Now you also have a mistake there, isn't one of the 9 big, Wasp, just capacity 76 and not 90? [:)]

[GreyJoy]

Yup, my mistake [:)]

[House Stark]

Subtract 16 for Wasp, but then remember to subtract 18 b/c Hosho is sunk. You got her earlier right? In any case, it might be difficult to get a CV battle isolated from LBA. Rader seems to use his carriers in support of his land bases, and due to the strength of your fleet and the sapping of his experienced pilots he's unlikely to change that. You'll have to trick him or something.

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: House Stark

Subtract 16 for Wasp, but then remember to subtract 18 b/c Hosho is sunk. You got her earlier right? In any case, it might be difficult to get a CV battle isolated from LBA. Rader seems to use his carriers in support of his land bases, and due to the strength of your fleet and the sapping of his experienced pilots he's unlikely to change that. You'll have to trick him or something.

Very true mate.

I'm pretty sure Rader won't be risking no more his CVs in isolated raids...more likely in sudden mass attacks composed of LBA + CVs, with his CVs well beyond the "line of safety" of the 7 hexes.

I gotta say i was tempted to raid his CVs while stationing at Rabaul in shallow waters...but the CAP umbrella he has there is HUGE and he has many many LBA squadrons to retaliate...too risky under these circumstances.

However i'll try to be as aggressive as possible...if a possibility arises...i'll try to catch it!

[Erkki]

Ironically Rader's first CV loss in his previous game was also Hosho and in very, very similar circumstances close to the same date and in nearly the same place, raiding convoys entering the map on most direct Panama-Australia/Fiji route.

GreyJoy, shallow waters dont effect CV ops. Its only CVs and CVLs in shallow water base hexes(ie. "coastal base" hexes). Rabaul would have been one but there'd have been good chance for the KB to have reacted out from the base. Outside Central Pacific you probably wont be able to engage the KB with little to no LBA backing it up so you need to get creative if you want it dead. [:)] Although your convoys and behind the line bases are pretty safe now knowing he wont move the KB from its LBA support.