Spain or Russia

[Red Prince]

Curses! Foiled again!
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Edit: I intend to get more of this game played today -- maybe even to the end of the S/O '40 turn -- with a Japanese DOW on Portugal in its next impulse. I'll let you know what happens.

[Red Prince]

Well, I haven't finished the impulse yet (still considering Japanese land movement), but the Axis got a '2' for the Weather roll . . . Fine weather everywhere. Japan DOWed Portugal, took Macao and will invade (Automatic) East Timor. Germany used an O-chit to get 115:20 odds for an attack on the last outpost of Spanish rule, and also has a 5:1 attack on Lisbon. That last attack would have been better odds, but I miscounted hexes and have to cross a river for the attack (wouldn't matter if Germany had made the DOW, too).

In China, I'm having a hard time getting enough Japanese units in one place to finish off either the Nationalists or the Communists. There's just a heck of a lot of land to cover, and every time I'm not careful, my clever opponent (me) takes advantage and tries a breakthrough to retake some city or another. The unit that does this tends to be lost, once Japan recovers enough to hunt it down, but that takes time and the unit can usually be rebuilt quickly. So, things are stalling a bit there.

-Aaron

[composer99]

Red Prince:

Just so I'm clear: the US has recently passed which production option?

#22 - Gear-Up (the one that takes them from 0.25 production multiple to 0.5)
#34 - War Appropriations (the one that increases PM, then increases it every following year, and removes a penalty on DoWing the Axis)

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

Red Prince:

Just so I'm clear: the US has recently passed which production option?

#22 - Gear-Up (the one that takes them from 0.25 production multiple to 0.5)
#34 - War Appropriations (the one that increases PM, then increases it every following year, and removes a penalty on DoWing the Axis)

This one.

[Red Prince]

Okay. Here's the situation on the Northern Chinese front.

Last turn I made good progress against the Communists, but I didn't manage to take Sian, so they had an excellent opportunity to reinforce the area with 2 fresh units.

I intended to relocate HQ-I Yamamoto and the 5-5 MOT either to the southern front for the winter, or to Siam (there are transports waiting for them in Haichow). However, the Communists got frisky and sent the MTN unit to take the city of Tsinan. That was the 3rd time this game that they risked losing a unit in order to force the Japanese to respond. Each time the Communist unit has eventually been destroyed, but it cost time for the Japanese, and it also forced them to retake a city -- which is part of the reason why US Entry is as high as it is. In this case, I got lucky with a 2-Factor LND and managed to succeed in a Ground Strike against the MTN unit, which means Japan can dispatch it without losing any units.

The Nationalist CAV in the west is a freshly built unit this turn, and it's going to force my other HQ in the region to expend its reorg points on the NAV based nearby. If it moves into that hex to protect it, the entire front will be put out of supply, so the only other option is to reorganize it and let it rebase when the CAV enters the city.
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Edit: I actually decided to move the AT into Ankang to protect the NAV. Sure, the move disorganizes the unit, but as long as it is in supply, that doesn't really matter much
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My only real hope on this front is to keep the three Communist units in the center isolated until I can finish the job of disorganizing them with Ground Strikes.

[Red Prince]

On the Southern Chinese front, things have been a little better for the Japanese, but I've run into a barrier due to weather and a missed opportunity.

Starting in Hainan, you can see that China conquered it early in the game, and Japan is only now getting into position to fix that problem.

As you can see, the biggest problem is in Kweilin, in the center of the image below. During the summer turn, even though Japan knocked out 2 HQ units, by the end of the 9th impulse, they had only just reached a position which would let them attack the 5-3 INF guarding the city. Bad weather was responsible, since half the Japanese units in this region only have 2 movement points.

Alas, the Allies took a risk in the 10th impulse -- all chose a Pass Action, and the turn ended after only 10 total impulses. Lucky thing for China, too, since they had HQ-I Stillwell ready to be deployed. So now, not only is Kweilin a tough nut to crack, but if Japan doesn't keep a close watch on the city, supply lines could be threatened.

Fortunately for Japan, there are no Chinese reinforcements due to arrive at the beginning of next turn. HQ-I Mao is going to be back at the beginning of J/F '41 to bolster the Northern front, but Japan also finally has its 7-6 ARM entering the game in M/A '41.

All in all, the battle for China does not seem to be over yet. However, Japan needs to start thinking about some overseas acquisitions, due to US Entry. One thing that works to Japan's advantage, though, is that I am terrible at the Naval game, so they may actually have a few extra turns to take care of business before the US becomes a major threat.

[Red Prince]

Something I forgot to mention, is that there is a Partisan in the north holding one of the Japanese resources hostage. Unfortunately, I have no units available to go after him. [:(]

Also, about US Entry -- at the end of last 3 turns, here's what the numbers looked like:

M/A '40
Ge/It Entry: 24
Ge/It Tension: 21
Ja Entry: 27
Ja Tension: 14

M/J '40
Ge/It Entry: 21
Ge/It Tension: 30
Ge/It DOW: None
Ja Entry 30
Ja Tension: 18
Ja DOW: 0%

J/A '40
Ge/It Entry: 35
Ge/It Tension: 33
Ge/It DOW: 0%
Ja Entry: 28
Ja Tension: 26
Ja DOW: 10%

At the end of the M/J '40 turn, in an attempt to raise Japanese Tension above 17, the US chose Lend Lease to China (Option 17). Nothing else was available, and the chit that was moved had a 50/50 chance of being either a '1' or a '4'. It was the '1', so the US tried to get the job done by selecting Lend Lease to the USSR (Option 30). It then rolled a '1', which meant 2 chits were moved. During the J/A '40 turn, there were three US Entry action rolls, and 2 of them added a chit. Luckily for the US, both of those were high -- one of them was a '5' -- which is very lucky for 1940.

Although the Japanese don't technically know this, the end result is that the threat of a US DOW is still very far away. There's just too much tension in both pools. The US does have the ability to adjust the tension rolls against Japan, but they simply can't risk too many more Entry Options until they have built up a lot more chits in the Entry Pools.

In other news:

On the Western Front, all is not entirely quiet. What troops France does have available are being put to good use. During the last Allied impulse, they began to evacuate Tunisia, and started pressing in from Morocco. The ports at Oran and Bone were retaken, and there are still Spanish ships in the W. Med, so supply is not yet a problem. It will be, though, very soon, if those ships do not survive.
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Edit: I sometimes get confused with the Supply rules. France is incompletely conquered, so they don't co-operate with the CW. I know that doesn't necessarily interact with supply (which is the part that confuses me), but I'm not certain these units actually should be in supply. Steve has just completed some corrections in the supply routines, though, so I might have a better idea soon.
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It looks like the battle for Gibraltar and N. Africa might actually become a problem for the Axis. Germany needs to build another O-chit soon, in order to be ready for Barbarossa in either late '41 or early '42. The sooner they can get that started, the better. That means that Spain and Portugal need to be finished off this turn (probably this impulse, in fact) and that Gibraltar needs to be taken next turn, if at all possible. Otherwise, there will be a serious problem getting troops to the Eastern Front.

[Red Prince]

Well, I reached the end of S/O '40, and here's how things played out:

• Portugal & Spain both will be conquered (CW was unable to salvage any Spanish land units)
• Japan gained its Portuguese possessions (Macao & East Timor)
• Japan also made good use of the Fine weather impulse in the N. Monsoon zone, risking a low-odds attack on Kweilin and killing off the INF. They lost a MIL in the attack, but Stillwell is now disorganized and has no access to Oil. With good weather on the horizon in this region, China may be in some serious trouble.
• Germany is slightly out of position everywhere except Iraq. O-chit production also needs to begin, in order to crack Gibraltar and then begin Barbarossa with a bang.
• Italy dispatched some of the "trapped" CW units in the Middle-East. This is a mixed blessing. It means these units are no longer a threat, but it also means the CW now has some more UK troops to build.
• Italy successfully invaded Yemen within reach of Aden (Victory City!). If the Axis wins the initiative, Aden is sure to be captured.

Gibraltar is a sticky situation. The CW didn't manage to get any white print units there yet, but they can at least double the already doubled combat factors using shore bombardment and Ground Support. Italy and Germany both have NAVs prepared to try to drive the CW fleet out of Cape St. Vincent in an attempt to put Gibraltar OOS, but that is a long-shot. It will probably require using 2 strong Corps and a Division, plus a PARA and maybe even invading troops . . . plus Shore Bombardment from Italy, and tons of Ground Support from German LND to crack Gibraltar. That's assuming I manage to disorganize at least 1 or 2 units using Ground Strikes.

This is a Major Operation (capialization required).

[trooper76]

I wouldn't try and force a Barb '41. Take your time, have 2 o-chits on hand and attack in MJ42.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: troop76

I wouldn't try and force a Barb '41. Take your time, have 2 o-chits on hand and attack in MJ42.

That's kind of what I'm thinking. It is going to depend on three factors, though:

1. How soon can Germany crack Gibraltar? If it takes 3 turns or less, I might be able to run a winter Barbarossa in '41.

2. How soon will the USA be entering the war in Europe? As soon as the Americans enter the war, Germany is going to lose the use of a lot of its FTRs for the campaign in the USSR. A lot more FTRs, I should say. Strategic Bombing is going to be hell for the Germans. Not to mention the enormous coastline they've gathered. This early, it means a lot of extra BP from the resources in Spain, France, and Portugal, and closing the Med will help, but once the USA is in it, the shores must be protected. An attempt at a '41 Barbarossa gives Germany more time to try to get to the Soviet Victory Cities.

3. How quickly is the USSR building up its forces, and where are they being placed? I've already got units in position to cut off the Russian Oil -- if I can manage a '41 Barbarossa. If I push it back to '42, that Oil is not only going to be better protected, but it is also going to be used in the meantime. Connected to this is the fact that I want to bring Turkey into the war on the side of the Axis, which should give Germany a great advantage . . . but only if the USSR can't defend against it.

So, I really would prefer to try a slightly weaker '41 Barbarossa. We'll see how it plays out over the next few turns.

[composer99]

The US producing 30 bp in late 1940? Ouch. The Axis need to have a good Barb or they're going to get swamped, especially if the US is in by summer 1941.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

The US producing 30 bp in late 1940? Ouch. The Axis need to have a good Barb or they're going to get swamped, especially if the US is in by summer 1941.

Exactly. But I don't know if the USA is actually going to make it into the war that early. The "It's War Chart" numbers still look terrible, and they now have to decide where to focus their efforts in building up Entry levels.

If Japan thinks it can get away with it, they may just build up troops and lift so that they'll be able to hold off on attacking the CW and/or France, hoping to prevent an early US Entry. I know that it's nice to get a few extra turns of war vs. the CW before that happens, but I actually think that an attempt to delay might be a better choice. If things go well in China during the coming winter, an attack on the USSR at the same time Germany launches Barbarossa might be the best choice.

I think the key here is to give Germany (and Italy) the best chance to expand and consolidate. Ideally, that means knocking Russia out of the war ASAP -- thus the 2-pronged approach.

Alternately, it might actually be possible to split India between Italy and Japan. If that can be done, each Axis theatre will essentially have only one front against the Allies, making things easier. And Italy is looking very strong for the moment.

Anyway, about that key . . . the USA has a lot of BP to spend, and it can build a lot of units, but if it can't actually use them, what good are they? Every extra turn the Axis manages to keep the USA out of the war is an extra turn of freedom.

That said, I think there's a'gonna be trouble if the USSR gets into 1942 unscathed.
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Edit: Ideally, the US should be feeding half of its build points to its allies at this point in the game, but I think I already mentioned that there is a recent bug that prevents BP from getting shipped overseas at the moment.

[composer99]

If I were the American player in that situation, I would do nothing viz. US Entry save for build up entry to get a better war number, unless there is some crucial option I need to pass. The only two options which spring to mind are CW reinforces Pacific and the one that allows production of LND4 (strat bombers).

Under the circumstances (and especially given the bug preventing lend-lease) the US can crank out sealift, the Army, the Air Force, and o-chits, with the expectation of having a bigger than normal force in the field when it enters the war, and the goal of launching an early intervention in North Africa or Portugal to relieve or recapture Gib and suck Axis forces away from the Eastern Front.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: composer99

If I were the American player in that situation, I would do nothing viz. US Entry save for build up entry to get a better war number, unless there is some crucial option I need to pass. The only two options which spring to mind are CW reinforces Pacific and the one that allows production of LND4 (strat bombers).

Under the circumstances (and especially given the bug preventing lend-lease) the US can crank out sealift, the Army, the Air Force, and o-chits, with the expectation of having a bigger than normal force in the field when it enters the war, and the goal of launching an early intervention in North Africa or Portugal to relieve or recapture Gib and suck Axis forces away from the Eastern Front.

Actually, at the end of this S/O '40 turn, I selected the Strat Bomber option, and it cost me a chit to the tension pool. Next turn I want to take the option to Repair Allied Ships, so I can get some of the French and CW ships built even without lending BP.

[Shannon V. OKeets]

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: composer99

If I were the American player in that situation, I would do nothing viz. US Entry save for build up entry to get a better war number, unless there is some crucial option I need to pass. The only two options which spring to mind are CW reinforces Pacific and the one that allows production of LND4 (strat bombers).

Under the circumstances (and especially given the bug preventing lend-lease) the US can crank out sealift, the Army, the Air Force, and o-chits, with the expectation of having a bigger than normal force in the field when it enters the war, and the goal of launching an early intervention in North Africa or Portugal to relieve or recapture Gib and suck Axis forces away from the Eastern Front.

Actually, at the end of this S/O '40 turn, I selected the Strat Bomber option, and it cost me a chit to the tension pool. Next turn I want to take the option to Repair Allied Ships, so I can get some of the French and CW ships built even without lending BP.

A screen shot of the current US Entry form might be useful here.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

ORIGINAL: composer99

If I were the American player in that situation, I would do nothing viz. US Entry save for build up entry to get a better war number, unless there is some crucial option I need to pass. The only two options which spring to mind are CW reinforces Pacific and the one that allows production of LND4 (strat bombers).

Under the circumstances (and especially given the bug preventing lend-lease) the US can crank out sealift, the Army, the Air Force, and o-chits, with the expectation of having a bigger than normal force in the field when it enters the war, and the goal of launching an early intervention in North Africa or Portugal to relieve or recapture Gib and suck Axis forces away from the Eastern Front.

Actually, at the end of this S/O '40 turn, I selected the Strat Bomber option, and it cost me a chit to the tension pool. Next turn I want to take the option to Repair Allied Ships, so I can get some of the French and CW ships built even without lending BP.

A screen shot of the current US Entry form might be useful here.

Good idea. I'll post one shortly.
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And here it is, after the S/O '40 US Entry step.

[trooper76]

dear god why is the tension number so high? How bad have been your rolls?
And the Strat Bomber option? urrgh, not a good choice imho. Especially considering how bad your tension is already.

[Red Prince]

ORIGINAL: troop76

dear god why is the tension number so high? How bad have been your rolls?
And the Strat Bomber option? urrgh, not a good choice imho. Especially considering how bad your tension is already.

This is how things stood after the choices for the following turns.

M/A '40
Ge/It Entry: 24
Ge/It Tension: 21
Ja Entry: 27
Ja Tension: 14

M/J '40
Ge/It Entry: 21
Ge/It Tension: 30
Ge/It DOW: None
Ja Entry 30
Ja Tension: 18
Ja DOW: 0%

J/A '40
Ge/It Entry: 35
Ge/It Tension: 33
Ge/It DOW: 0%
Ja Entry: 28
Ja Tension: 26
Ja DOW: 10%

I was trying to work up tension for Option 34 (Pass War Appropriations Bill), and then in J/A '40, I passed it. That's when things went through the roof. Strategic Bomber Production was a solid choice, I think, because the USA has a lot of BP to spend, and this is a good place to spend them. Unfortunately, I got the bad end of the 50/50 chance of moving a chit. At the end of this turn (N/D '40), I'm going to take the same risk for Option 25 (Repair Western Allies Ships) and try that 50/50 again. After that, it's pretty much nothing until I'm ready to tie the noose around Japan's neck.

I have an interesting situation now, though. It's one that I didn't expect. Japan has China in bad enough a position that China can now Surrender, if it wanted to. Normally, this would be foolish . . .

However, here's the situation from each point of view:
Allies
1. The CW is barely holding its own in North Africa, and has lost the Middle-East to Italy (including Aden)
2. The USA may be scary with its production, but it isn't going to be entering the war very soon, I think
3. China is very weak, and might break in the next few turns
4. Japan is not in any position to wage war on the USSR, though it does have units it could move there if China does Surrender

A surrender by China after the N/D '40 turn (if things are really looking bad) would force Japan to DOW another major power. It isn't strong enough to take on the USA, is out of position to try to grab a lot of territory from the CW, and would get very little from a DOW on France. If it chose either a DOW on the CW or France, it means an extra US Entry chit each turn. That should bring the USA into the war very quickly, I'd say.

Axis
1. Germany and Italy are very busy in the Med at the moment. Italy, needs to reinforce Algeria and complete its conquest of the Middle-East. Germany has fully committed to taking Gibraltar and closing the Med, which leaves few units to threaten the USSR . . . or even to defend against an attack by the USSR
2. A Japanese DOW on the USSR would allow the Soviets much more freedom in their Action choice, which means they can prepare much better for Barbarossa, whenever it comes. They won't be limited to 5 land moves per impulse, so they could build their defenses at strategic positions very quickly.

Given the choice Germany made to try to close the Med, the Axis wants the USSR to be Neutral as long as possible. Germany needs to be able to get the jump on them, and an Active Russia prevents that.
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So, here's the question . . . If Japan makes good progress in the south during N/D '40, should China consider a Surrender in order to force the Axis hand?

[Extraneous]

His average tension roll is 70% to place a chit into a US tension pool.
 
That would mean his average would be 10 chits in the US tension pools.
 
 

[trooper76]

Can't say I'm fond of the argument that 'the US has lots of BPs so lets buy STRs'.

Yes the US DOES have a lot of BP, they also will have a two front war to fight and two allies to potentially prop up with LL.
Secondly as the CW is in a lot of trouble and Germany isn't embroiled in Russia you don't have the luxury to sit back and bomb him to death, you need boots on the ground saving CW ass. (imho)
How has CW production been?
If the US has to go Europe heavy straight off, I'd think you'd want lotsa FTR, ARM, TAC, INF/MOT..then you need NAV to protect convoys, Convoys themselves, and keep up your ship building program including AMPH and TRS...in terms of priorities I think STR is way down on the list. Though keep in mind that's more specifically for a CW first strategy by the Axis.

With 40-50 BPs US might have a turn, after say 4-5 are going off to FF and CW, I can find plenty of things to build before I get to STR...