Helio's Axis AAR (v Cannonfodder Soviet)

[heliodorus04]

AGC breaks through past the Dnepr bend SE of Smolensk.

[heliodorus04]

This turn went about as I expected, with very few attacks and a lot of infantry moving as hard and as fast as it could to get into the gap. I debated having all 4 panzer corps rest this turn, but in the end only 47.Panzer and 24.Panzer rested all but 46.Panzer moved across the eastern Dnepr. I pursued this because next turn, the two stationary HQs will possibly be in good position for the divisions to do some hasty attacks within 5 hexes of the HQ, enabling it to use Buildup if it goes well. Otherwise one will almost certainly do a buildup and the other can exploit.
By my observations (I hope they’re accurate), the units NE of Smolensk are newly arrived over the last 2 turns, and are hopefully weak, and the remainder will be the units devastated by last turn’s land bridge battles. A drive NE that way can probably inflict a lot of retreats on depleted units, and infantry could move fast.

Otherwise, a drive in force East moves along the most favorable terrain on the way to Kaluga. I can make good speed here with armor in the lead. The gambit is what CF does with those units I bypassed along the river. And what he does with the northern flank around Vellikie Luki. That flank is over-extended, and while I can’t do much about it, any units there that are needed in defense of Moscow are going to have to start walking soon. He has lots of good order divisions south of Smolensk, but they won’t be able to dig in well, and again, hasty-stack-attacks by armor can cause a lot of retreats, and the infantry can make good speed eastward. What I feel is the imperative is to keep driving east and unbalancing set defenses.

Things are going well in the center, I think, and I’m seriously contemplating bringing the AGN FBD down here to help move the supply line toward Moscow. The HQ and SU situation here is optimal, with 9. & 4.Armies each having a well-lead, 4 division, artillery-saturated corps to drive forts, with a corps or two to protect flanks. The infantry corps of 2. & 3.Panzer Groups are going to support their respective breakthroughs. 12. & V.Corps are well lead, and VI.Corps is a local reserve.

Aside: As I’ve started to recognize units that have taken multiple retreats over prior turns, I’ve noticed that the penalty for multi-HQ attacks seem to matter a lot less, and the artillery spillover might wash it out. A multi-corps hasty-stack-attack (I’m going to abbreviate that as HSA hereforward) just needs to have sufficient numbers of bodies, it seems, to have the power to force retreats. So this turn, my HQs are at the front line or 1 hex behind. I want any hasty attacks I have to be supported next turn.

[heliodorus04]

AGS is the usual assortment of problems. Here’s how things looked after my turn.

[heliodorus04]

I scoured up and down the river with 6.Army looking for weak spots, and there were a couple. But it didn’t look promising, as y’all said on page 2, the terrain west of Cherkassy makes it a bad crossing point, and it’s easily defended. I was hatching a plan to use 3. & 48.Panzer corps to get behind Krivoi Rog and encircle 12 divisions down there, possibly. But as the attacks moved along the Ingulets River, I scouted Kremenchug, defended by a Motorized Rifle that looked pretty bad. Motorized divisions tend to be retreat-happy, so I brought up 48.Panzer, and had 1 panzer division that had enough MPs to deliberate attack across the Dnepr, so it was on. I figured the deliberate by 1 division would fail, but with proper arty support, much disruption would be done, and the remainder of the corps could hasty attack, forcing the retreat. At that point, the 3 panzer divisions of 3.Panzer corps were to cross the bridgehead.

As it turned out, HuzAA! 13.Panzer division’s deliberate forced the retreat, and his fellows crossed with enough MPs to attack east, clearing another hex. This windfall was occupied by 3.Panzer corps, and 14.Panzer corps basically holds the southern shores. This basically was the net outcome of one HQ buildup, each, on turns 6 (48.Panzer corps’ 5 divisions) and turn 5 (3.Panzer corps’ 4 divisions). As pelton says, when you use Buildup you basically get 2 turns of extra movement points. 3.Panzer consumed their 2. Next turn, 48.Panzer will have some remaining, and it’s across the Dnepr.
I was pretty upset on Turn 5 when those attacks failed across the Dnepr, and the rolls had something to do with it. This turn, getting 3 hexes (only 2 occupied) across the Dnepr more than cancels it out; I’m back on schedule playing a little stronger than I customarily do.

In the south, it was another turn of few attacks, but that will all be changing shortly. OKH is on its way down here to help sort out the SU situation. When I set out this game to improve my AP use efficiency, I was not aware that pioneers did not automatically move up and down the HQ chain as pushed/pulled by settings. Overall, I’m about caught up now, but I didn’t save any APs over my usual sloppy approach.

Getting caught up in the Pripyet marshes, I think, is a rookie German mistake. I’m covering the perimeter of the marsh with 1 security division and 1 low-morale infantry division, both broken into regiments. The loss of momentum isn’t worth the supply block. The Soviets can’t hurt you from inside of it IF you pay attention to his borders, and retain blocking forces (6 regiments are plenty, it appears).

[heliodorus04]

End of Turn Musings

[heliodorus04]

Oddly, after following Ketza’s advice to the letter on my air doctrine settings, my kill ration hit 5:1. I only did 1 ground attack, no airfield attacks (and no aircraft were caught on the ground). That’s sustainable, for a bit at least.

Summing my division tracker per number of attacks, the total for the turn was 42 (this figure never includes attacks against isolated units, nor attacks against lone brigades, because those are almost always assumed a win). Of the 42, 3 resulted in Held. I am operating under the directive that it’s better not to attack than to get a Held result. Of the Soviet divisions which Held, 2 of the 3 were forced to retreat thereafter in the turn. I don’t like to let successful Soviet units go unpunished if I can help it.

[heliodorus04]

Turn 8 has started and the one big change I’ve seen in the F11 battle view is that I did a lot of interdiction, and with the exception of a few battles, my airframe losses were 1:2 of the Soviets in those, and most of my attacks did damage to ground troops. I decided last turn that I would use interdiction since it seems more effective all the sudden. And with all the moving in open going on south of Smolensk and along the eastern shores of the lower Dnepr, I figured 2 could play the interdiction game. The down-side is that I set interdiction doctrine settings to 100 and 150 (escort) and I did have a lot of bombers show up – 20-30 often, with escorts number 50% to 150% of those. The battles were rather large, but at least I was fairly dominant.

After scouting, there are some interesting issues to consider in all Army Groups, so I think I’ll cover that. I’m not likely to finish the turn today, since I spent all day yesterday on it.

First, let’s look at pools and losses:




So this turn for the first time I came CLOSE to keeping the Red Army from growing. That’s somewhat disheartening, but this is the typical Soviet strategy: the slow-Robinsky ZOC blanket, with lines from time to time as well. I’m starting to catch up now, and hopefully the attack volume continues to grow, with the same 85% success rate or better. My own tank losses have slowed (but not for long, I suspect), and the air war was well-managed on Turn 7. These are good trends to have.

[heliodorus04]

This is the AGN SitRep prior to moving. Does anyone have an opinion on whether this AGN FBD should keep moving the rail line? I’m strongly tempted to move the FBD down to Smolensk and keep that line moving at maximum possible rate. It’s worked very well for me down South.




When planning, I try to recognize what CAN be done based on movement allowances. 39.Panzer has MPs in the 26-31 range, which is quite good considering they did not sit idle last turn. 56.Panzer has 35/12 (motor/inf) and that won’t buy it much due to it’s location on the far western side of the battlefield. 41.Panzer has MPs from 24 to 32, and so it’s quite possible to perform one or two deliberate attacks into that corridor headed for Ladoga. I may have CF with his pants a bit down, trying to hold the Finns off in the far north… The down side to changing your avenue of approach up here is that extracting yourself from a bad position takes at least a full turn. But I feel that I should try to bust that route open this turn, because the alternative, attacking onto the Neva-line, is sure to be costly and it won’t upset his defensive plans at all even if I am successful.

[heliodorus04]

In the AGC area, the Soviets got quite good movement overall.

[heliodorus04]

His moves played out very much like I expected. My 2 Panzer Corps that rested now have 38-40MPs (up from the low 20s/high teens last turn). My 2 panzer corps that were positioned for buildup are able to build up. I’m leaning right now towards the idea of hitting the divisions between me and Bryansk, because they are in favorable terrain and low forts, and they should be fatigued from moving. This is going to be a hard decision.

In the south, things are just slow. I’m starting to believe that CF’s play changes this game have had a lot to do with our last game. Last time I kept 47.Panzer corps in the south, but I was slower crossing the Dnepr (although I got more factories last time). And I made slow progress in Leningrad, but I made progress every turn. I’m thinking that he’s reinforced the south, whereas I’ve weakened it compared to last game. And I’m thinking he’s underestimated the center since I have 47.Panzer up there, and in the north, I think he’s a bit resigned to losing Leningrad while extracting the highest possible cost.

[heliodorus04]

AGS Start


I see little recourse other than to hit those “Gatekeeper” stacks (19CV, 6CV next to it) to dislodge the defenses and to try to break out. But movement all around there is outstanding, with over 32 on all motorized divisions. I have to break out.

Well, that’s the overview at the start of 8. I’ll post back in the next day or two with the actual results, in the meantime, why is there no discussion of my AAR the last several turns? Is it moving too slow? Is it too wordy? How can I improve the AAR and get readers involved in sharing their view of my decision-making and performance?
Thanks.

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

Well, that’s the overview at the start of 8. I’ll post back in the next day or two with the actual results, in the meantime, why is there no discussion of my AAR the last several turns? Is it moving too slow? Is it too wordy? How can I improve the AAR and get readers involved in sharing their view of my decision-making and performance?

Hey Helio, I'd have liked to make you some questions, but I've been very busy and I'm having trouble to keep the AAR going and sending turns back to Q-Ball on a regular basis

But I do find your AAR to be excellent [;)]

I see you went for the Krementschug crossing option, which as James commented, it's certainly the best option. I wouldn't worry too much about those stacks. Soviet CV early in the war is a mirage. Make sure you have the very best commanding the forces in the bridgehead and they'll be gone. I'm not experienced enough as the Axis as to suggest you to hasty attack the 6=6 stack, though. In any case, I wouldn't do anything too spectacular to rile your opponent too much. You actually want him to think he's doing well stopping you. This would be reinforced by "playing it safe". It all depends on how realistic is to expect him to let you get a massive encirclement west of Sumy and Poltava.

I also see - somewhat surprised - that you have part of 3. PzGruppe in the north. I guess it has really made things easy there for you, but as your questions on the images pose, what else can you get? I think you'll be getting little more and having it to pack up and go back to the center might be a good idea.

[Peltonx]

North looks good, Leningrad should be yours. Just load up 1 corps with 4 divisions, Model, guns and poineers. This will also give you atleast 100,000 in deaths.

I generally pull one pz corps and head south at this point, then pull the other once your over river.

Center is going nicely.

South looks not so hot, but your about to break him shortly.

Pocket what you can an pick off any armament pts go can.

Your Mps look good, but if you HQed up before you know your going to break out that give you 2 turns of supplys. So once those 30ish unit get in open he have no chance of stopping you for 2 to 3 turns. When you run out of gas.

Also the 3 stacks you have on other side of river if your HQ is close enough, you could do the attacks and then HQ up. Your other units would make the hole, then next turn u have 2 full corps with an HQ build-up. He be toast at that point.

Nice job so far. You bag any armament pts yet?

[heliodorus04]

Turn 9 has rolled in, so I can post Turn 8 (I'm still paranoid about an opponent reading my AAR, is that uncommon?)

[heliodorus04]

Honestly, everything in the AGN area went as well as could be planned. A much higher than average loss ratio for me. 14 attacks, 4 Held. But two of those were 16.Rifle vs. 1.Panzer, with the ‘third time being the charm’ and I got to force a displacement move of Northern Front HQ. Knock, knock Comrade! Ultimately that battle wouldn’t have happened were it not for a rare gem of a “reserve” commitment on OFFENSE in the hex southeast. Here, a deliberate attack was hitting 2 strong rifle divisions (0 fort).

[heliodorus04]

Those same two divisions had held off a 3-SHA by 1.Corps infantry, with good artillery support, and held. Perhaps that did enough damage and disruption, and certainly the aid by 36.Motorized was instrumental in causing the route of a strong Rifle division and cause heavy casualties. I put reserve on just as a whim at the end of last turn. Never thought they would come to the aid in a deliberate!

And with that, as well as the crossing at Novgorod (isolating 2 strong divisions), I think he has reason to panic about the Volkhov front, and now has to decide if he thinks I might go for the fabled “right hook”. I think the right-hook is a fool’s errand because it’s so easy to hold Lodynoe Pole, and this is exactly the wrong terrain for 3 panzer corps. BUT, realistic, credible threats are a weapon unto themselves, and right now, CF has to prepare for me trying anyway, and his front is really thin here.

I think I am obliged to attack toward the Neva next turn with 18.Army, and 39.Panzer has just punched a hole across the Volkhov that will lead it back south. Unfortunately, I don’t think I’ll get to isolate many units with it because an attempt to go east of the Valdai Hills will run into great defensive terrain, bad armor terrain, and poor armor supply. Basically, this is as good as it gets in “isolating” Leningrad. If only I could convince Mannerheim that if he attacks Lodynoe Pole, that small, rustic fishing village, but NO! Mannerheim is a douche! Remember the Winter War! (sorry, ranting about another constraint that Germany has to deal with that neuters great gameplay options…for god’s sake, move the ‘no-attack line to Lodynoe Pole and make the Soviets honest…). So anyway, 39.Panzer is headed to the Vellikie Luki area, which will likely take till turn 10 or 11 when it’s back helping AGC. In a turn or 2, the bulk of 41.Panzer will head that way as well. I’ll ensure 2 panzer divisions stay here with Mannstein.

I’m very satisfied with how my war for Leningrad has gone. Last game, the air war bug neutered my attacks, and CF definitely benefitted from the original 1.04 fort rules, where there were so many level 3 forts on the Volkhov that I couldn’t even break off the beachhead.

On to AGC…

[heliodorus04]

From a macro level, there’s something to be considered for the re-alignment of AGN’s panzer asets:

[heliodorus04]

This picture above should be taken in with the picture below of the end-of-turn AGC situation, which I think is highly favorable to me driving on Moscow.

[heliodorus04]

On the one hand, the weakened divisions I expected to find here (the ones devastated by land bridge battles) were nowhere to be found. All fighting here found hardened, new-arrivals like Moscow PM Rifle division (1 held, 5 retreats, then finally a route). There were quite a few more Held results, but I took more chances on hasty attacks, and even when some failed, I repeated them if it was obvious to me that the loss was primarily due to the die rolls. So nothing held out against me without being forced to retreat at some point.

On the other hand, Vyazma was ungarrisoned (I had to fight the aforementioned retreated Moscow PM Rifle there, but that was it’s final battle leading to route). Then, there were wide open plains east of Vyazma. So I don’t know where he’s trying to rest those beaten units from the land-bridge, and I hope it’s somewhere between me and Moscow, though it’s possible he evacuated them more north/northeast knowing I wouldn’t drive hard into that area.

So now I have a wedge of open space between the Rzhev area and the Bryansk-Kaluga area. There is a huge mass of good-order (less so after this turn) Western Front units that are racing east as fast as I am. Where I have to fight my way through defenses, he must skirt my ZOCs, and cross the rivers, and deal with my growing interdiction threat.

This breakthrough needs to be supported as strongly as I can. 39.Panzer will be heading back next turn, with 41.Panzer coming also, or 1 to 2 turns later, depending on what I see happening around Leningrad. I’m strongly tempted to move both corps on Turn 9, but I can’t yet so no point thinking about my options until I see CF’s next move. I feel pretty happy about how I’ve bypassed Western Front, and it seems very realistic to start considering Moscow as an objective. I think right now, my railroad plans are changing a little bit. Instead of bringing AGN’s FBD down southward, I think I might bring the southern FBD of Army Group Center up to Smolensk. There’s not much operational intensity between Gomel and Bryansk, and my pace of movement, and the small mass of troops I have there, don’t justify using an FBD there. I’m not sure what to do: success can make plans less stable… I never planned to bypass the Dnepr so hard-core!

So that’s AGC and it’s promising future. I set 24.Panzer corps to use HQ buildup (2 panzer, 1 motor, 1 cav). The other panzer corps will not buildup, because I’ll be wanting to use Buildup down south this turn, I think.

[heliodorus04]

Speaking of the South, perhaps it’s time I get down there and see what’s shaking with the bridgehead…