Helio's Axis AAR (v Cannonfodder Soviet)

[heliodorus04]

2 Panzer divisions of 41.Panzer were ‘stuck’ between 2 Soviets at turn’s start, so they would have had to spend almost as much MPs leaving a ZOC and entering another one that it made more sense to be a part of the Deliberate Attack on Schillselberg (‘am Swamp’, if you ask me). That attack saw a 4:1 kill ratio (I still lost 2,000 and 30 tanks). 41.Panzer shoved the tank division on its east well out of the way with a hasty attack, and then it made it to Novgorod on the way further South. 39.Panzer made it a nice long way and is in good refit/supply territory (but not perfect territory).
I inched closer to the edges of the Valdai hills.

The Shlisselberg am Swamp attack used 9 divisions and achieved 3.4-1 odds, and featured mainly 41.Panzer and 38.Corps (under my favorite megalomaniac German general, Walter Model), which left a great deal of 1.Corps and 56.Panzer (Mannstein), and they organized onto a deliberate attack on hex 82/17 (west of Schlisselberg) in an attack that, by visible CV, was more than 2:1 odds, but the leadership rolls and level 3 fort brought it to 1.6. I suffered 2700 lost to 800, and 30 tanks. Not good, but the fort was reduced 2 levels.

At turn’s end, I brought 16.Army’s 2.Corps (the strongest of 16.Army) up to the rear of the Schlesselberg area, and next turn, the plan is to take West-of-Swamp, and if there are enough units to get a deliberate across the Neva (probably by 1.Corps and it’s heavy artillery contingent) then I might hit that too. I have plenty of SU support assets around, the trick is just getting enough movement to get more than 1 deliberate attack, and trying to move around efficiently. I want this done as soon as possible so the SUs can return to the magic-SU-zug.

I’m VERY Happy with the AGN situation. I know CF didn’t put a full-on defense into it (I’d like to take some credit for that for my excellent Turn 2 & Turn 3 around Pskov). I don’t think he can reinforce the 2 vulnerable hexes easily. Also, he has a fort in that hex that I believe now cannot be disbanded (advantage me? Or are they pretty bada$$ in such a defensive position?)

In the Southern Valdai Hills, it’s more inching along. Nothing important to report on the north flank.

In the center, my attempts to encircle a couple of fresh rifle divisions are hampered by 2 failed leadership rolls converting easy 2:1 odds into 1:5 to 1 by 13.Corps. The newly arrived Soviet 13.Army apparently has some good SUs. I will have to change that. One of the attacks, the hasty, was a click on the wrong hex, and I could live with it. The deliberate was very disappointing, but it was only 1 division. I expect better out of my leaders…

[heliodorus04]

Center, Turn 9 End

[heliodorus04]

A few too many Held Results against me, but the ones that most bothered me were my own fault. 57.Panzer’s divisions had enough movement to go out and attack somewhere, but only one or two tries before any such divisions would have to move back to within 5 of the HQ for the end-of-turn buildup. I used one of the panzer divisions to attack a unit outside of command range, and I needed the leadership bonus, but being out of range, both attacks failed. That’s okay, the buildup is worth the trade. I did not plan on that buildup being available, which makes me “Heliodorus: accidental logistical genius”
At the macro level, I would have liked to get down to the Oka river, and I could have, but it would have meant leaving a motorized division vulnerable to being surrounded. Being surrounded would have cost me operational tempo as I’m making fantastic speed due east. The lead panzer corps (47.Panzer, the terrors of Lvov on T1 are now 50 miles from Moscow) will have buildup effects for the next turn, joined by 57.Panzer further south. Meanwhile, 46.Panzer HQ, it’s 2 panzer divisions, and Das Reich all sit idle this turn in hopes of gaining supply next. Also, at the start of turn 11, 39.Panzer corps will be in usable position, and on Turn 12, 41.Panzer corps will be.

As much as I’m pleased with my speed to the east, I’ve benefitted from mistakes by CF, though I’m not sure which ones. I think he over-committed to the southern end of the Upper Dnepr and didn’t recognize in time the threat I posed through the Smolensk gap. He’s overcommitted to Bryansk given the path of cleared terrain which, I think, clearly shows what my plans for my infantry are. Perhaps, though, this is the difference between how I’ve managed AGS this game versus our last one (this is CF’s second vs.-human game I believe). Last game I was very slow in the center and in Leningrad, and while not much faster in the south, in the last game I bagged a lot more divisions than this game. Well, I’m still hoping that, as I hear Soviet-players say, “It’s not the divisions you lose before turn 10 that hurt you, it’s the ones you lose after…

I keep fighting to keep my momentum. The most important thing has been the lane of hexes for infantry to march on. Another thing I’ve been very conscious of was to avoid getting mobile elements isolated. It’s only happened to 1 mobile division, and that was Turn 2 near Pskov. The inability to recover from disruption appears to be a serious hindrance to speedy panzer divisions. Morale hits are always bad. Ask the Soviet… So I’ve definitely been cautious about the supply position of my lead elements every turn.

The bright spot of AGC is that 57.Panzer corps is eligible for buildup this turn – rocket-trucks IGNITE! 3 mobile divisions raring to go. And that was a complete accident.

Now tell me, Soviet-only players (I wish there were fewer of you, meaning you should all play Germany a time or two – I’ll be your Soviet opponent!), using 1 fewer panzer corps than was historically allotted to AGC (though that will be a wash when the panzer assets from 4.Panzer Group arrive with 39.Panzer around Turn 11), do you think that a German player who isolates or captures Moscow should not get some sort of national morale boost/penalty (I personally favor an increased chance for the German and Axis Minor divisions to GAIN morale upon successful victories – something akin to raising the national morale, but maybe less severe a penalty to the Soviets). In a game where I have captured ZERO armament points and have caused below normal Soviet losses (to date, granted), I should get nothing if I’m in Moscow on Turn 13? Nothing? I think no, that’s not quite right.

[heliodorus04]

Here is how AGS ended the turn, from about Gomel to the Sea of Azov.

[heliodorus04]

I told CF in my end-of-turn e-mail that the breakout from the Dnepr is a slow grind of burned out tanks. 48.Panzer’s armor are under 80 each. 3.Panzer’s 1 armor is over 150, so too is 14.Panzer’s armor. 48.Panzer had to do most of the hard fighting, because it is they who are using buildup this turn in the south. So as the next two turns go, 48.Panzer and its tired, worn out tanks are going to be vulnerable, and weak, and maneuver will be the order of the day. I will have to drive a wedge somewhere, but won’t have much of an idea until I see how the turn plays for CF and how it looks at the start of 10. With the railhead (and 2 FBDs) as close as they are, MPs should be good next turn. Coincidentally, the railhead has moved fast enough that 17.Army is getting a bit better supply next turn than this.

I think the best news down south is that 17.Army is across the Dnepr and on the east side of the Psel, so 6.Army can fight northward, if that’s the optimal course, or 17.Army can fight east/northeast if that’s optimal. This supply point seems just right for the infantry armies to flex their muscle next turn. And there are a lot of damaged divisions around here. I figure when you start seeing the Soviet player plug his front line with cavalry, you’ve got him in bad shape. Those are not units you want taking losses for no good reason.

In the far south, 11.Army is across at one point, and will easily cross at the black sea. You may notice that my Axis minors are being used in an eerily familiar role guarding exposed flanks and rivers! But what the hell else good are they? I leave some muscle around them in case CF decides he wants to try some suicide stuff.

NOTES TO SOVIET PLAYER ON RESERVES
I think CF may have missed a great chance to use Reserves here at the Dnepr bridgehead, but there are a lot of reasons I might not see reserves being used even if they’re being held. In my other game, my opponent did an old-school, full Robinsky and when I finally caught up to his lines, his army was in outstanding condition and reserves often activated (more than 50% of the first two turns of head-to-head fighting) causing a lot of Held results. But after 2 turns of that, I was starting to route combatants with reserves involved as well. The game is fairly punishing of losing battles in terms of morale loss. I think on the attack, especially, a Held result could be less debilitating.

BATTLE TALLY
59 divisions were attacked, 7 routes, 7 Held. Of the 5 divisions that achieved Held results, 245 Rifle accounts for 3. All of the 6 divisions that successfully defended were forced to retreat at some point in the turn. For its bravery, 245 Rifle was retreated 5 times to offset the 3 wins (coincidentally, not deliberately). That’ll learn ya, Ivan.
I’m uncertain how my combat performance is going overall. It seems I am still not attacking much, but I think my wins are pretty high quality, and are producing excellent maneuver. The whole reason I’m 50 miles from Moscow this fast is that I used mass and speed and Western Front is still trying to adjust 4 turns later.

Also, the HQ buildup is showing the usual effects in truck immolation. The status is 164/155 need, and that’s worrisome. I’ve never been in a game where I go under the Need amount.

AIR WAR STUFF
The air war is still hugely problematic, but in the Leningrad area, I’m doing well, and that’s because I concentrated some of AGC’s air power there for the drive on Leningrad. My ratios up there are much higher than the average, so you can see how poorly I’m doing in the center and south. I have put various air wings into national reserve, some fighters and some bombers. I won’t consider bringing some of these units back until turn 11, so the next two turns will have to be managed well. I am bringing fatigue down by turning my most fatigued fighters to Night Missions at the end of my turn. That helped a lot over the turn break. I’ll have to examine whether it’s time to start flying fighters away from Leningrad. His performance there is getting weaker, and the distance his fighters have to fly is getting larger. I adjusted my interdiction downward, and might turn it off it wasn’t having such affects against me. And I need to keep offsetting his movements where he’s got exposed flanks.

[heliodorus04]

Here are the OOB and loss figures. I suffered 2 or 3 retreats in CF’s first counter-attacks. Newsflash, 1.Romanian Armoured has won its first battle!

[Peltonx]

Wow very nice in center, I am impressed.

Pelton

[Richard III]

Very, very impressive for AGC at T 9[&o] Well done indeed.

Do any HQ build ups ? Your opponent doesn`t seem to favor Forts, and seems pretty thin on the ground in front of Moscow......where`s the rest of the Red Army I wonder ?

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
NOTES TO SOVIET PLAYER ON RESERVES
I think CF may have missed a great chance to use Reserves here at the Dnepr bridgehead, but there are a lot of reasons I might not see reserves being used even if they’re being held. In my other game, my opponent did an old-school, full Robinsky and when I finally caught up to his lines, his army was in outstanding condition and reserves often activated (more than 50% of the first two turns of head-to-head fighting) causing a lot of Held results. But after 2 turns of that, I was starting to route combatants with reserves involved as well. The game is fairly punishing of losing battles in terms of morale loss. I think on the attack, especially, a Held result could be less debilitating.

There's many people who don't like/use reserve mode for a variety of reasons. One of them is that it's far from obvious how to setup things so Reserves are triggered. Let's remember the sequence of checks performed to determine Reserve commitment for each battle:

1. Chain of Command Check: The unit needs to be within 1 step in the chain of command.
2. MP Check: Reserve needs to have available a number of MP's greater or equal than
3 x MP cost + 8 (if motorized, same HQ)
4 x MP cost + 8 (if motorized, within 1 step)
3 x MP cost + 2 (if non motorized, same HQ)
4 x MP cost + 2 (if non motorized, within 1 step)
3. Range Check: Within 6 hexes in the defense, 3 hexes in the attack

1. Leader Roll: Roll Die(10) and score a value lower or equal than leader Initiative score. +1 to Roll if reserve is corps, -1 to Roll if brigade/regt.
2. Reserve Size Roll: Roll Die(18) and score a value lower or equal than the Engagement Size Value (adds size values for units already committed as reserves to the current battle: Corps is 15, Div is 9, Bde is 5, Regiment is 3).
3. MP Roll: Roll Die(Required MP's) and Die(Available MP's), success if 2nd Roll is less than or equal than first roll.

A few observations:

• If you don't have a reasonably tidy Chain of command, forget about Reserve mode entirely.
• MP requirements get really exorbitant as the distance to the battle increases.

An example:

32nd Army's (commander is Tobulkhin, Initiative 6) 312nd Rifle Division is engaged, and there is 45th Tank Brigade with 24MP, also under 32nd Army command, within six hexes. 45th Tank Brigade is 2MP's away from 312nd Division, which means that it needs 3x2 + 8 = 14 MP's in order to commit to the battle. Since it has 24, it passes this check. Now the Leader Roll needs to be done so Die(10)-1 is less or equal than six, and then result of Die(24) needs to be lower than the result of Die(14). The first roll has a chance of success of 7/10. The second roll chance of success if somewhat more involved more or less

[center]1 - ( ((16*(24+1)/2) - 16 ) / ( 24 · 16 ) = 1 - ( 184 / 384 ) = 1 - 0,48 = 0.52[/center]

That is a combined chance of exactly 0.7 · 0.52 = 0,364, or slightly better than 1:3 odds.

Now, there's also 15th Rifle Brigade within 6 hexes, and has 16 MP's, also at a distance of 2 MP's. The MP requirement would be 3x2 + 2 = 8 MP's. The odds for the MP rolls would be:

[center]1 - ( ((8*(16+1)/2) -8 ) / ( 16 · 8 ) = 1 - ( 60 / 128 ) = 1 - 0,46 = 0.54 [/center]

That is a combined chance of 0.7 · 0.54 = 0,378, a bit better than for the Tank Brigade.

The above example I think shows that no serious Soviet player will base his defense on Reserve commitment. It's a nice bonus, when it happens. However, for German MP's and leaders, the assesment is substantially different.

EDIT: Got wrong the formula for the MP roll

[heliodorus04]

THanks for the detailed explanation.  Very inlightening

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

THanks for the detailed explanation.  Very inlightening

Is that irony? [:D] Yet another observation re: Reserve. Placement of reserves is very important. You can see that the chances to intervene in any single combat are very low. But the chances that it eventually commits in a given turn grow as the number of eligible battles increase. So placing it somewhere eligible for 3 battles means that it will most probably be committed into one of those battles (for the Tank Brigade above, if there are 3 battles in hexes costing 2MP's to reach, the chances are about 0.62, or 1:1.5 odds of at least taking part in one of them).

I've been using this observation in my current game with Q-Ball, to get Tank Brigades one hex away to support assaults.

[heliodorus04]

No, seriously I appreciate it.
I'd like to figure a way to improve my reserve chances on offense, but it seems the system is strongly stacked against it being economically viable.

I have a question on what it means to be "within 1 step" of command.

Does that mean if a German corps is in attack, reserves can only come from units assigned to the same corps or the corps' Army HQ?

Would it include divisions from another corps if both corps are attached to the same army?

[BletchleyGeek]

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
No, seriously I appreciate it.

[:)]

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
I'd like to figure a way to improve my reserve chances on offense, but it seems the system is strongly stacked against it being economically viable.

I agree with that. In the example I discussed, it's worth the effort because it's always better to attack with as many divisions as you can, so a Tk Brigade or something bigger can give it just the extra oomph it might need to topple the defenders. Thinking about placement, MP's and remembering to click the Reserve button before the attack is more useful than just having the guys on the second echelon to sit on their butts looking at the battle from a distance. In the current WitE ruleset non-phasing player opportunities to interfere with the phasing player actions are very limited (I'd say, too limited).

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04
I have a question on what it means to be "within 1 step" of command.

Does that mean if a German corps is in attack, reserves can only come from units assigned to the same corps or the corps' Army HQ?

Would it include divisions from another corps if both corps are attached to the same army?

No, I meant steps as in "tree" representing your army organization. So from Army to Corps (Corps to Army) is OK, since it's one step down (up). From two Corps belonging to the same Army it's two steps: one "up" and the other "down".

[Balou]

Again I look at your armaments pool, which is really getting low. If you consider changing your TOEs, please let us know. Because I would really know how much time it takes for the arm pool to reverse course and recover.

Second, your panzer losses: can you tell if this from attrition or from combat ?

Btw, I consider your AAR exeptionally well written, mainly because you deliver a lot of "behind the scenes" info.

[heliodorus04]

Yes, I have changed my TOE percents, based on Pelton's advise from page 4, and I put all SUs but pioneers (which I feel are the best SU in the German army) to 50%.  This turn will mark a good point on which to do it since I'm so close to 0.

My panzer losses seem to be more from direct combat more than attrition.  But I'm not sure what the ratio is.

Thanks for the compliment on the AAR, I'm glad the detail isn't 'overkill'. 

[Ketza]

I like to keep things very organized. When I play as Axis I get quite a few reserve additions. Its a very important part of defending and throwing off Soviet players who try to minimize units committed to assaults.

[heliodorus04]

Richard III asked where the Red Army is. Let’s look around the Kremenchug bridgehead, and the answer to that question lies readily apparent.

[heliodorus04]

CF has surrounded my bridgehead with a phalanx. I’m not great at figuring out how to handle those, so it’s taking me a lot of time to plan. But as I was reviewing his response to the Stealth Axis Minor move, I was surprised he was going so ‘all-in.’ I expected him to withdraw much further along the Kiev area. At this point as I’m reviewing the turn, I think he might have made a BIG mistake that enables me to isolate the largest pocket of units yet in this game. It all rests around the map above, and successfully blocking out the railheads supplying the units west of the Sula and South of the Desna. A lot rests on planning between here and there, but remember that 48.Panzer, beaten down though it is, used HQ buildup last turn, and is looking at 2 turns of good to great movement points…

[heliodorus04]

Here is a detailed map of what 48.Panzer is up against in its immediate area.

[heliodorus04]

I can tell from my tracker that the units immediately adjacent are heretofore un-attacked. Given the volume of combat that’s gone on here, I think CF has probably done here what he did at the Land Bridge, hoping that a front line of Ready units can protect 2 more lines of Unready units. But it’s been long enough now since I played the Soviets that I just can’t remember what state the army is usually in at this point… I’m judging the pulse of the Soviet army right now by the number of guns I see in units that are newly attacked (low gun totals on new units means they’re newly raised, generally) and attacked in the prior turn (how fast guns replace alerts me to his armament situation). I also believe that the units west of the Sula are of good quality (the defenders of Kiev against the Turn 5 & 6 battles), while the units to the north and east (after the first line) are probably the ones that were beaten on last turn by the infantry.

The one problem to this theory is that I can’t prove it without first deciding which direction I want to move. Almost all of 6.Army is safely across the river, and about half of 17.Army is. My directional choices are either north/northeast along the Psel (which lends itself to the isolation of Kiev) or eastward toward the Donets region. If all of my force goes in one of those 2 directions, I can definitely unhinge his prepared phalanx, but going both directions dilutes my ability to succeed at both things, and I don’t want to do this. Ultimately I’m choosing the option of isolating Kiev, because I need to remove counters from the map, many of those units are probably strong, and because the flow of the rivers makes it a force multiplier for me protecting my west/left flank as 48.Panzer strains further north, and another river on the east side.

As an aside, the problem with the Kiev front isolation move is what to do once you get 48.Panzer all out there on its own. I actually think I can bring 3.Panzer Group elements down via Bryansk, and there may be a huge pocket opportunity there since 39.Panzer (returning from Leningrad) should be in good position to use HQ buildup NEXT turn, with both 47.Panzer & 57.Panzer using buildup last turn. A lot of that Kiev maneuver depends on the 4.Army units near Gomel, so I’ll muse on that later (if I remember).
Here’s a macro of how I think that might go…

It’s complicated. As I’m scouring over this turn trying to figure out optimal move paths, and hoping I find weak units in the right spot at the right time, I know I have to conserve AP (I changed 2 corps commanders, 1 just because I did not pay attention to a leader’s value earlier) and I’m down to 32. One thing’s for sure, this is going to exhaust 48.Panzer and they are the panzer divisions with the fewest tanks. They CAN be retreated by an infantry deliberate attack…

The giant huge unknown in this impromptu army-destruction plan is what such diversions would require of me at the gates of Moscow… I don’t need to make any absolute commitments until I see what AGS accomplishes in breaking out past the Sumy. So that’s where I’ll take the AAR next…