The Power of Inexperience / GreyJoy(A)-Rader(J)

[Canoerebel]

GJ, in my game vs. Miller, by 1944 the Allies were invading strongly held Japanese bases. For instance, Ternate had 50k troops that had been digging in for three years. I think Manado, Morotai and Ambon also had in excess of 20k troops well dug in.

I found that the Allied invasion forces were able to pretty quickly overcome those garrisons, even when the numbers were relatively equal. IE, I don't recall the Allies having 2x or 3x the number of troops as you'd typically wish for an offensive operation. I think the keys were that the Allies controlled the air and were able to heavily bomb the enemy positions, disrupting enemy units and probably making supply a real issue. (The quality of Allied '44 troops might also have factored in, though I wasn't paying attention to that at the time).

I was frequently suprised that early 1:1 or even 1:2 attacks resulted in roughly equal casualties or more IJ casualties. Forts also dropped steadily. So, where I was expecting to take big hits, I actually could see that the Allies had enough troops on hand to defeat the enemy, even if doing so sometimes took a week or two or three (to reduce forts and finally overcome the defenses).

What I'm saying is this: Don't let a 25k or 50k or 75k garrison give you a case of the yips. If you really need a base, and if you can assert control of the air, you can take a base with roughly the same numbers (or as many more as you can reasonably bring to bear).

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GJ, in my game vs. Miller, by 1944 the Allies were invading strongly held Japanese bases. For instance, Ternate had 50k troops that had been digging in for three years. I think Manado, Morotai and Ambon also had in excess of 20k troops well dug in.

I found that the Allied invasion forces were able to pretty quickly overcome those garrisons, even when the numbers were relatively equal. IE, I don't recall the Allies having 2x or 3x the number of troops as you'd typically wish for an offensive operation. I think the keys were that the Allies controlled the air and were able to heavily bomb the enemy positions, disrupting enemy units and probably making supply a real issue. (The quality of Allied '44 troops might also have factored in, though I wasn't paying attention to that at the time).

I was frequently suprised that early 1:1 or even 1:2 attacks resulted in roughly equal casualties or more IJ casualties. Forts also dropped steadily. So, where I was expecting to take big hits, I actually could see that the Allies had enough troops on hand to defeat the enemy, even if doing so sometimes took a week or two or three (to reduce forts and finally overcome the defenses).

What I'm saying is this: Don't let a 25k or 50k or 75k garrison give you a case of the yips. If you really need a base, and if you can assert control of the air, you can take a base with roughly the same numbers (or as many more as you can reasonably bring to bear).

And flame tanks. Don't forget to bring the flame tanks.

[obvert]

Rader is doing this wrong. He is fighting his defense over foreign territory against
obviousely better pilots and planes on equal numbers which doesn´t achieve anything
besides increasing the pilot quality gap.
And he does it for weeks already.

This may happen when you fight alone against 100 brains.
I don´t want to lessen your achievements GreyJoy, but am I the only one who thinks that
there is a bit too much help from top notch players around to stil call this
"The power of inexperience"?

LoBaron

The basic premise that Rader is 'doing something wrong' might itself be flawed. The facts are that he has been losing masses of aircraft on a steady basis for about a year of game time now. The ability to produce incredible amounts of planes due to the extra HI in India and China has already been detailed by much more experienced voices than mine in previous posts.

GJ has always taken his own path in spite of the advice from everyone. He will continue to do that I'm sure. More than anything this is a social column where a lot of us get to throw out ideas and learn from responses from experienced players and from Gj and this game.

Anyone in their first PBEM will be inexperienced at least until that game is finished. I will consider myself inexperienced at least until I've played both Japan and the Allies through to 45.GJ is in the middle of his first major amphibious campaign! Advice is great, but he has to set the strategy, prepare the logistics, weigh all of these options and then actually make the orders. It's great to have advice, but it doesn't play the game for you.

[GreyJoy]

Thanks guys... CR, hope you're right cause intel and recon tell me Rader is building a very strong defensive perimeter...

Anyway, while the 15th and the 16th saw the conquest of Munda and, as said, a fierce air battle over the base (with 16 hellcats shot down for me and 30 different planes on his side - Toni 100, Franks, Georges and Zeros), the 17th and 18th have been days of rest and reorganizing for the next push.
We're giving our guys in the front line a change.
The 1st, 2nd and 3rd Marine Divisions are being moving back to Noumea. They'll rest and wait for their 44 upgrades, while prepping for the new target: Bali and southern Java (this area seems to be the only area in SRA/DEI not fortified, garrisoned or built up).
The US Divisions will keep on pushing in the Solomons.
We're getting ready for our new operation (Choiseul and Treasury Island)...i need to get Munda operative first...and that means with Engeneers, CD guns and base forces for 250 aviation support.
An Air HQ fully prepped is being moving there, along with more support units. Soon the whole center of gravity of my offensive will be at Munda and Rekata. There i'll be able to base 600 fighters in order to support our advance, while Lunga will become our bomber base and Tulagi our first port in the Area...Ndeni will be emptied soon... 1,5 million supplies stocked...not bad.

In NG we keep on pounding his advancing columns at Salamua...the 16th Army, strong of 2 Inf Regiments and 1 SNLF Bde is moving to reinforce the 15th Army, composed of the 5th Division and an Inf rgt...The skies over this region are ours for the moment...Rader isn't contesting them...also because many of his AFs are closed by our 4Es... We'll need all the air support we could get to break this line...but we'll succeed!

More recon over Timor area...the whole southern DEI is a mess of fortifications, well built AFs and every base seems to have at least 25,000 men... that's why we need to bypass it...

Subs are being dispatched in the area in order to scout his interior lines...

The operation for southern Java will probably take place not before april 44...we need lots of stuff to be moved to Exmouth and Port Hedland first... but we're working hard.

In India our left flank is moving to cross the river...north of Multan...

[obvert]

In NG we keep on pounding his advancing columns at Salamua...the 16th Army, strong of 2 Inf Regiments and 1 SNLF Bde is moving to reinforce the 15th Army, composed of the 5th Division and an Inf rgt...The skies over this region are ours for the moment...Rader isn't contesting them...also because many of his AFs are closed by our 4Es... We'll need all the air support we could get to break this line...but we'll succeed!

Are you able to inflict much damage in that terrain or is this just an operation to slow them down?

[Cribtop]

GJ,

Unless I missed something, you just announced a major new axis of advance into Bali and Java. Have you abandoned the idea of reaching the PI via NG or is this a part of your original plan? I ask because 3 Marine Divisions is a lot to prep for a new advance. I know you have discussed a 2 pronged advance, but I assumed you were proceeding a la the historical Operation Cartwheel, i.e., via the Solomons and PM, then along the northern coast of NG.

[JeffroK]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GJ, in my game vs. Miller, by 1944 the Allies were invading strongly held Japanese bases. For instance, Ternate had 50k troops that had been digging in for three years. I think Manado, Morotai and Ambon also had in excess of 20k troops well dug in.

I found that the Allied invasion forces were able to pretty quickly overcome those garrisons, even when the numbers were relatively equal. IE, I don't recall the Allies having 2x or 3x the number of troops as you'd typically wish for an offensive operation. I think the keys were that the Allies controlled the air and were able to heavily bomb the enemy positions, disrupting enemy units and probably making supply a real issue. (The quality of Allied '44 troops might also have factored in, though I wasn't paying attention to that at the time).

I was frequently suprised that early 1:1 or even 1:2 attacks resulted in roughly equal casualties or more IJ casualties. Forts also dropped steadily. So, where I was expecting to take big hits, I actually could see that the Allies had enough troops on hand to defeat the enemy, even if doing so sometimes took a week or two or three (to reduce forts and finally overcome the defenses).

What I'm saying is this: Don't let a 25k or 50k or 75k garrison give you a case of the yips. If you really need a base, and if you can assert control of the air, you can take a base with roughly the same numbers (or as many more as you can reasonably bring to bear).

I think in later years the AV comparison is flawed, Allied firepower increases dramtically and in Downfall scanarios you see the IJA "melt" a lot faster.

Well done at Munda, it looked like you rushed an attack into an increasingly well defended area and your recce let you down.

PS I am in the firmly in the camp of keeping the pressure up in NG-Solomons and looking for a way around. I dont see the DEI as the approach to follow, too many well defended islands with LBA support. I would start tinkering with going up from Suva-PagoPago and pick out the empty islands and use your SeaBee powers to build bases. (plus a right hook in India and and and............)

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

GJ,

Unless I missed something, you just announced a major new axis of advance into Bali and Java. Have you abandoned the idea of reaching the PI via NG or is this a part of your original plan? I ask because 3 Marine Divisions is a lot to prep for a new advance. I know you have discussed a 2 pronged advance, but I assumed you were proceeding a la the historical Operation Cartwheel, i.e., via the Solomons and PM, then along the northern coast of NG.

Yes Cribtop,

The Marines aren't prepping yet however. I'm still thinkering my plan.
My consideration is the following:
The NG (northern Coast from PM-Buna) has been slowed down due to Rader massive reinforcement of the whole area. Ships came and went for the past 2 weeks, bringing so many troops that it's hard to count them all...he doesn't move regiments...he moves armies!

The Solomons are clearly more promising and i'm dedicating 6 divisions to this task (while using sep regiments to cover-guard the conquered bases), along with a HUGE portion of my naval assets...

However...all the advices given me were sound, and found in me good ears to listen...

I need another vector...With NG and the Solomons Rader can defend both using the same allocated assets...interior lines you know...

At first i considered the PM-Torrent straits-Mereuake-Western NG. But Janez was right...i'll be exposing my left flank too much...he has so many well built and decently garrisoned bases north of Darwin that i'll simply do his game (obviously if i dedicated everything here probably i'd be able to break his lines...but i cannot just focus on a single vector).

Then i analyzed the Obvert's suggestion about Sebang...
It is sound...another vector...very distant from SOPAC/SWPAC and able to make Rader sweat...
But...i don't feel confortable to the idea of being so far away from my bases...i would be in the middle of thousands of miles of japanese waters...with not a safe port to go...remain trapped there with my whole fleet would be a disaster...

But the original idea was sounding fine to my ears...

I so tried to find a place that was suitable to obtain the same result but with a more confortable feeling...

While southern DEI has been strongly built up and garrisoned (obviously after have learnt all its pros and cons in his game with Jzanez) by Rader, The whole Java seems to have been abbandoned...he has the 61st Division and the 61 Regiment at Coconut Island, and a couple of tank units are reported at Sosarbaja...but nothing more...Bali is untouched since the beginning of the war and also the base in the most southern cape of Java is unbuilt and seems to be undefended...Intel never tells me anything about Java... meaning something me thinks...

Also this target is pretty close (well, not so much but still...) to my new bases in N-W OZ...Exmouth, port Hedland, Derby...all these bases are really well built... i have 3 divisions arriving from CT, along with 600,000 supplies... the brits are giving their contribution by lending lots of base forces and support LCUs, along with spitfires and Wellingtons...

So the idea is to keep the pressure up in the Solomons and NG...advance in the Solomons and do what i can in NG...at least binding down a good portion of his fighting forces dedicated to SOPAC theatre...and then, in April/May, land with a decent force (but above all with lots of eng, support units etc etc) in southern java...Rader will be forced to react...to move his LCUs from India... and so a new front (India) will finally be open... at the same time Rader will have to divert a good portion of his assets from Sopac to SRA...and this will give more boost to my beloved SOPAC theatre...


Ok, now...something new...

Rader is acting... a strong BB TF is reported to be moving southeast on the eastern coast of Bouganville....clearly covered by a HUGE LRCAP...what is he up to? My bet? bombing Rekata.... Munda isn't yet a threat to him...and he knows it...the AF and the port are still very damaged and i have yet to bring my support units there (engineers, base forces, CD units etc etc)...while Rekata is a thumb up in his ass at the moment...during the last Munda operation 300 fighters based there run havoc among his bombers...and it's the clear starting point for the next allied advances... so i think that TF will try to bomb Rekata...

But he knows i have my cruisers there...

Following Nemo's suggestions i have created a very good TF composed of the Boise, 3 cleveland Class CLs and 7 Fletchers DDs, commanded by Dallas...a very good leader in Naval tactic and aggressiveness.

So i don't know...why would he want to risk now?

However i'll eat the bait.

My BB TF composed of 2 Modern BBs, 3 CAs and 8 Fletchers (led by Lee Ching) will move from Tulagi to Rekata to support Dallas, while the Richmond CL, along with 5 DDs will move to Munda, covered by another TF composed of 5 Fletchers...just in case...

PTs and subs are flooding every possible access to Munda and Rekata...

And, if he doesn't run away after the first night, i have moved to Lunga, Tassa and Auki 100 SDBs highly trained, along with 50 torpedo Bombers. 150 hellcats will provide escorts, while the rest of my 450 fighters should give a good CAP against any attempt of breaking my air lines...

The CVs are moving south east of Auki...if he remains in range we'll attack...

I know i'm risking a CAP trap... but sooner or later i'll have to use my dive and torpedo bombers...and his BBs have become so rare to be spotted that it's a chance that i cannot really avoid.

Wish me luck!

[House Stark]

I like the Java idea if it continues to remain lightly garrisoned. Whether you win or lose, Rader has to throw everything he can at you because if you take Java, then most if not all of his oil sources enter 4E bomber range. And if you can get some forces ashore there are is some pretty defensible terrain as well that could make your troops difficult to evict quickly. And even if he has unlimited airframes, he has limited squadrons to put them in. And provided you continue to preserve your CVs, you could even keep a CV TF in the Solomons when the time comes just to maintain the pretense that your navy is still focused there.

[Zeta16]

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel



It's not for me to opine whether GJ is better than he used to be; opinions on that are clear in this AAR. The more interesting issues, for me, deal with Nemo's points vis a vis the national objectives a situation such as GJ's presents in a Scenario 2 game where India is in Japanese hands. In two major AARed games now--yours with QB and this one--we have seen that India can represent more than an attractive setting for auto-vic. If the Japanese player chooses he can treat India as an economic engine. If he chooses to pay the garrison price he can source HI from there which exponentially increases his force mix elsewhere.

In this game, rader seemingly produces aircraft for the main purpose of "disposing" of pilots which would otherwise consume HI in the pilot pool. This HI savings allows him to build ever more aircraft, with a "wheat" injection of HI from India. If his low-grade pilots in his increasingly R&D-sophisticated aircraft kill Allied planes, great. GJ owns no Fur Farm; his aircraft are finite. If they don't, still good, since the incessant combat at good Allied loss ratios makes GJ think he's accomplishing something when in fact he is giving rader the one thing he can't manufacture--time.

Is this true, I have never heard this. I thought it was automatic HI withdraw, I mean some HI should be used the pilots need to learn something before getting into a plane.

It sounds like gaming the game engine, at this rate there is going to be more Japanese pilots than all the Allies had in the whole war.

[Cribtop]

GJ,

There are benefits to Java as outlined by House Stark. My advice on that is, if you choose to go, go BIG. You must get ashore with a sustainable force as distance from friendly bases will create a situation where Rader can, at least temporarily, control the surrouding seas. Be ready with troops, support troops, supplies and hordes of planes and land them ASAP, then get outta there. The proposed operation has significant risk, not least of which is inability to effectively recon it first lest you tip your hand.

[Bullwinkle58]

ORIGINAL: Zeta16

In this game, rader seemingly produces aircraft for the main purpose of "disposing" of pilots which would otherwise consume HI in the pilot pool. This HI savings allows him to build ever more aircraft, with a "wheat" injection of HI from India. If his low-grade pilots in his increasingly R&D-sophisticated aircraft kill Allied planes, great. GJ owns no Fur Farm; his aircraft are finite. If they don't, still good, since the incessant combat at good Allied loss ratios makes GJ think he's accomplishing something when in fact he is giving rader the one thing he can't manufacture--time.

Is this true, I have never heard this. I thought it was automatic HI withdraw, I mean some HI should be used the pilots need to learn something before getting into a plane.

It sounds like gaming the game engine, at this rate there is going to be more Japanese pilots than all the Allies had in the whole war.

Ah, you've discovered the wart on the Fur Farm Maneuver. The HI cost was added in a patch; it isn't in the manual. As far as I can tell from old threads (I don't play the Japanese) it only applies to pilots in the training pipeline, not those in the Reserves or Replacement Pools. Rader would need to use up both of those before he could stop the HI "tax" from kicking in. However, he can stock his front line, especially naval, units and protect them, then use up the pools. The code will send a half-trained pilot from the pipeline if it has no other choice.

Scenario 2 has a big ramp up in Japanese pilot numbers in the pipeline in 1943-45, from what I read in threads. Andy Mac protested in one thread that the HI tax was imposed after Scenario 2's pilot ramp-up was designed; it was not there at first shipment. Some Japanese players have said they think this patched-in provision makes Scenario 2 harder for the Japanese instead of easier as was the original design intention. The HI tax in later-war months can be huge if the player lets those pilots exist for the full year of training.

I'm not saying rader IS doing a Fur Farm. He might just be using India's largesse to make lots of planes, and doing a conventional training routine to try to get good pilots into them. But a Fur Farm would be a diobolical tactic. Gamey? Maybe. But making planes for the main purpose of losing them--on purpose--to take away pilots who would otherwise incur an HI tax would be a genius move IMO. As I said before, if they take out some Allied planes while destroying themselves and their tax liability, all the better, and thus also leaving observers congratulating GJ for his "attrition warfare" with digital egg on their faces. [8D]

[GreyJoy]

ORIGINAL: House Stark

I like the Java idea if it continues to remain lightly garrisoned. Whether you win or lose, Rader has to throw everything he can at you because if you take Java, then most if not all of his oil sources enter 4E bomber range. And if you can get some forces ashore there are is some pretty defensible terrain as well that could make your troops difficult to evict quickly. And even if he has unlimited airframes, he has limited squadrons to put them in. And provided you continue to preserve your CVs, you could even keep a CV TF in the Solomons when the time comes just to maintain the pretense that your navy is still focused there.

HS and Crib,

The area around sounthern Java is really lightly garrisoned... going through the intel reports of the last 16 months (was a damned hard business not using Tracker!) At Soasrbaja there are the 17th and 19th Tank Rgt, 1 SNLF unit and a base force...nothing more.
At Denpasar there's a base force.
The rest of the area is empty...or nearly empty.

Here's a pic of the general idea...

Denpasar will have to be conquested immediately...it is the only AF built up to a decent level and with a port capable of speeding up a bit the operations...

About numbers Crib... i agree with you. I need to have a strong force. But i cannot really weaken the Solomons or NG, so i decided to extract only the 3 marine Divisions from there.
At the moment i have identified 6 divisions (the 3 Marines plus 1 AUS division and 2 US Divisions) that can be used for this operation, along with 5 Tank BNs and lots of supporting units (Engineers, Base forces, CD guns, Artillery etc etc).

6 Divisions should give me enough power to break his thin lines and arrive to Soarbaja, while he gathers enough forces to try a counterattack. By that time the AFs will be built up and i could start moving 4Es from Port Hdland up to there in order to start reducing the oil fields...

It still needs to be tweakened, but i really like the idea...


Rader's pc got broken today...the game will be halted for some days[:(]...time to do some homework!

[ny59giants]

The more armor/tank units you can bring the better. You will need their speed for fast conquest once ashore in Java. I would bring some para to use to grab lightly held bases ahead of your advance. I would say you have a week before KB could arrive if she stays around Rabaul area. You known this will be the CV vs CV battle that you need to win the war. I hope you have the Stockpile option for Fuel "ON" at Perth and Albany as you will need major stockpiles there.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: obvert

Rader is doing this wrong. He is fighting his defense over foreign territory against
obviousely better pilots and planes on equal numbers which doesn´t achieve anything
besides increasing the pilot quality gap.
And he does it for weeks already.

The basic premise that Rader is 'doing something wrong' might itself be flawed. The facts are that he has been losing masses of aircraft on a steady basis for about a year of game time now. The ability to produce incredible amounts of planes due to the extra HI in India and China has already been detailed by much more experienced voices than mine in previous posts.

There is a major difference between losing hordes of a/c (which scen 2 makes the Japanese perfectly capable of) to
losing hordes of a/c with no other gain than training the Allied pilots. The experience and skill gain by shooting
down several 100´s of planes per turn, while Raders pilot skill level drops (he is probably losing +50% pilots per plane
destroyed), is invaluable. He artificially creates a pilot loss rate of maybe 15-20:1. This alone is probably worth
more than any allied pilot training program.

The quality gap is already very obvious now, and it will grow at an increasing rate during ´44.
No ´45 Tony model will help Rader if the skill gap increases further, personally I think he has already
reached a point of no return.

Even in case he is saving his exoerten for the late war fight and throws in low skill pilots as he can afford
it, he is producing allied experten at a rate GJ would never be able to achieve by training.

This is the mistake I was referring to, and its a grave one IMHO.

[obvert]

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

ORIGINAL: obvert

Rader is doing this wrong. He is fighting his defense over foreign territory against
obviousely better pilots and planes on equal numbers which doesn´t achieve anything
besides increasing the pilot quality gap.
And he does it for weeks already.

The basic premise that Rader is 'doing something wrong' might itself be flawed. The facts are that he has been losing masses of aircraft on a steady basis for about a year of game time now. The ability to produce incredible amounts of planes due to the extra HI in India and China has already been detailed by much more experienced voices than mine in previous posts.

There is a major difference between losing hordes of a/c (which scen 2 makes the Japanese perfectly capable of) to
losing hordes of a/c with no other gain than training the Allied pilots. The experience and skill gain by shooting
down several 100´s of planes per turn, while Raders pilot skill level drops (he is probably losing +50% pilots per plane
destroyed), is invaluable. He artificially creates a pilot loss rate of maybe 15-20:1. This alone is probably worth
more than any allied pilot training program.

The quality gap is already very obvious now, and it will grow at an increasing rate during ´44.
No ´45 Tony model will help Rader if the skill gap increases further, personally I think he has already
reached a point of no return.

Even in case he is saving his exoerten for the late war fight and throws in low skill pilots as he can afford
it, he is producing allied experten at a rate GJ would never be able to achieve by training.

This is the mistake I was referring to, and its a grave one IMHO.

Many other voices have addressed this several pages of posts ago to point out that even though everything you're saying is true, it may still be to Rader's advantage to continue in this fashion for a while to void his pools of pilots and avoid the HI penalty. I don't understand all of this completely yet, and I also opined much earlier in this AAR that I thought Rader was exponentially creating good pilots for GJ.

My mind has been swayed a bit because I've seen him continue to do it and to keep GJ on the brink of running out of planes to fight back with. Also, as GJ pointed out in a post from around a month ago game time, occasionally one of these crack units with pilots of 80-90 exp and 15-20 kills each gets outnumbered and a bunch of them are lost in one turn. Even the best pilots are not invulnerable, as anyone playing Japan learns throughout the first year of the war using the KB against much weaker opposition. The theory might be that eventually GJ will be mostly using the fighters to sweep over enemy bases, so any planes lost will lose pilots.

Further, and I haven't heard anyone mention this yet, if he's not training pilots, he can buy out a bunch of groups from the Home Islands and Manchuria to use elsewhere, keeping his numbers very high. I've just been wondering how he has so many groups of fighters and bombers both in the Solomons and in India, and this seems like the most likely answer. I can't remember offhand how many groups are permanently restricted, but I think most IJA units not in the HI can be bought out.

[LoBaron]

I missed the discussion back then, obviousely.

While it may be possible that the gain in HI by draining the pools outweights the added loss in
airframes, transporting the supplies needed to replace those airframes to the specific areas alone already
wastes precious fuel reserves.

And I highly doubt that the disadvantage of producing Allied uber pilots is outweighted by anything.

Anyways, opinions might differ. [:)]

[Canoerebel]

ORIGINAL: JeffK
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

GJ, in my game vs. Miller, by 1944 the Allies were invading strongly held Japanese bases. For instance, Ternate had 50k troops that had been digging in for three years. I think Manado, Morotai and Ambon also had in excess of 20k troops well dug in.

I found that the Allied invasion forces....

JeffK quoted me up above, but that actually wasn't me. The first clue is that the comment was both insightful and showed an in depth familiarity with the game that is way beyond me pay grade. [:)]

I think the quote belongs to Bullwinkle.

GJ, as for Java, be careful of starting a major campaign that involves large islands. Rader should be able to land a zillion reinforcements at the other end of Java and then eat your three or four or five divisions alive. It could be like Port Moresby on a massive scale, assuming he has a big reserve rather than all his units committed in SoPac and India.

But forcing him to invade strongly defended islands sounds like a good tactic, beginning with Dempasar, Bali, and those other islands east of Java.

I'm sure you'll think of this, but be sure to have maximum oilers available.

[DOCUP]

GJ keep up the good work.  Do your thing and make it work.

[Schlemiel]

The idea of an invasion of south Java both thrills and terrifies me. It does seem like a weak link in his armor, but there are just soooo many supporting airbases and I can't see any way to deny him all the reinforcements he likes in Merka and Batavia while you build up your ports and airfields. There are some fairly safe routes to bring the counter-hammer to your forces through the mountains where your air to ground attack won't be as powerful, but that will slow them somewhat too. It also depends on what kind of strategic reserve Rader might have, which is impossible for me to gauge despite his commitments all over the place. My guess is that Soerbaja, if you can take it, may be a death trap for both sides. You won't really be able to use its level 9 port effectively yet as your supply lines are going to be difficult to protect at first (though your 1944 air force may make it easier than I imagine), and it's a clear terrain hex so his bombers may make hay before you can get enough airfields up to protect everything. If it were me, I'd take it (to keep the forts down and let you pound a recapture attempt by air once you are set, then pull back and center my defense at Malang. It's a mountain hex that he cannot easily flank (he has to cross a roadless mountain hex and through a completely open hex right next to your bombers before he can fully isolate you, and it's great defensive terrain even if he brings an enormous number of divisions. It ought to buy you time to respond to his moves and solidify your beachhead.

On the other hand, you'll want to bring a ton of supply and engineers within the first few days as well to get everything build up (as you well know and I'm certain are already planning). I think the attrition on his cruisers might pay off on this attack, as they are already spread so thin he might have issues getting bombardment sctfs there until after you are decently established. Also, because you are pushed so far back, unless I'm terribly mistaken (which is quite possible), he will not have any kamikazes yet to complicate your life (which become a possibility in 1944).

Another advantage of Java is that it is one of the few places on map that you can really exploit the power of your armor units. Unlike your situation in India, you will be able to lrcap them well here and they can rush up the coast to threaten encirclement and overrun some of the airfields on the north side. Rader will have to weigh that in his counter attack since you can potentially use armor + strat move to capture Batavia while he's bogged down in the south east.

I think you have to be careful in your planning and execution, but I'm a fan of the idea for opening another front and threatening the oil directly in your particular case. Like I said, I"m not sure you can cut off the flow from the HI even if you rule the seas, and while he may well be able to survive without the DEI oil and resources by the time you can really level them, it at least gives you a way to limit his economy (and perhaps fleet movements) in a long game.