P38G production stopped

[hades1001]

Hi all, I'm at end of Nov 42, and my P38G production stopped at early Nov.

So far I have received 28 P38G, and it has stopped there for almost two weeks. Theoretically I should have received 35-38 P38G by now, given its monthly rate of 20.

I have checked the production line in LA, and the production is "on".

All other type of planes are produced normally.

So, what happened here? Any comments please?

[Alfred]

Technically, it isn't really a monthly production rate. Factories produce aircraft at a daily rate which is very much affected by random numbers. In your case where you quote a monthly production rate of 20, the real daily calculation is:

(F + R)/30

where

F=20
R= random number between 1 and 30

So if you have daily been generating a random number of between 1 and 9, you end up with a daily production of less than 1.

Alfred

[hades1001]

But I'm on Nov 26th already, and I suppose to get 20 P38G this month. How the system can manage to meet this production?
I have observed more than a week of absolutely no production of P38G.

Will the system run a check at the end of month and decide that I only get 8 P38G this month and will compensate my at the end of month. Or no such mechanism exists and I only get 8 P38G this month because of my very, very bad luck?

[Alfred]

No, I told you it is done on a daily basis. You are not guaranteed to receive each month the quoted "monthly" production. There is no end of month catch up. Each month you might end up with more produced, or less produced, than the quoted "monthly" rate.

Alfred

[witpqs]

I've gone as far as between the 15th and 20th of a month with no plane production, and sometimes production goes faster. It is probably just that this example is one of the even rarer 'bad luck' instances.

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Technically, it isn't really a monthly production rate. Factories produce aircraft at a daily rate which is very much affected by random numbers. In your case where you quote a monthly production rate of 20, the real daily calculation is:

(F + R)/30

where

F=20
R= random number between 1 and 30

So if you have daily been generating a random number of between 1 and 9, you end up with a daily production of less than 1.

Alfred

It's supposed to be a binomial distribution with mean 2/3. The probability of none in one day is 1/3; none in two days is 1/9;... none in N days is 1/(3^N). none in a week is 1/2187, which is rather small. None in two weeks is about one in four million. If you had a few in that period, you can use R to calculate the probability. binom.test(successes, trials, p = probability)

binom.test(0,14,p=2/3)

Exact binomial test

data: 0 and 14
number of successes = 0, number of trials = 14, p-value = 2.091e-07
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.6666667
95 percent confidence interval:
0.0000000 0.2316358
sample estimates:
probability of success
0

binom.test(5,14,p=2/3)
binom.test(5,14,p=2/3)

Exact binomial test

data: 5 and 14
number of successes = 5, number of trials = 14, p-value = 0.02086
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.6666667
95 percent confidence interval:
0.1275984 0.6486199
sample estimates:
probability of success
0.3571429

You may be dealing with a biased draw.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

No, I told you it is done on a daily basis. You are not guaranteed to receive each month the quoted "monthly" production. There is no end of month catch up. Each month you might end up with more produced, or less produced, than the quoted "monthly" rate.

Alfred

Yes, but for him to get no production for a week straight he would have to have hit an improbable string of probabilities or he is actually experience a bug which some one might want to look into.

One of the consequences of the randomization of daily production that I have to wonder if the devs are aware of is that a certain plane type can be rendered completely useless by the randomization.

One type of Wildcat recon plane (I think it is the F3FP, but not sure as I am at work and not in fornt of the game) is set to produce only 12 airframes. In my last game the randomization shorted me one plane leaving me with 11 planes which was too few to upgrade a squadron to so the net result of losing one plane in production was actually losing 12 planes since the remaining 11 couldn't be used.

Some plane types and squadrons allow upgrades if even one plane of the new type is available while others preclude an upgrade until the pool has a sufficient number of planes to equal the squadron maximum. I am not knowledgeable enough about the upgrade mechanism to decipher a ruleset that dictates when which case applies.

My experience with the Wilcat recon plane type was that all the squadrons capable of upgrading to that type fell into the "won't upgrade until the pool has sufficent numbers to equal the squadron maximum" category, so the result of a one plane shortage in production was not being able to use the other 11 planes. [:@]

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: hades1001

But I'm on Nov 26th already, and I suppose to get 20 P38G this month. How the system can manage to meet this production?
I have observed more than a week of absolutely no production of P38G.

Will the system run a check at the end of month and decide that I only get 8 P38G this month and will compensate my at the end of month. Or no such mechanism exists and I only get 8 P38G this month because of my very, very bad luck?

binom.test(8,30,p=2/3)

Exact binomial test

data: 8 and 30
number of successes = 8, number of trials = 30, p-value = 1.397e-05
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.6666667
95 percent confidence interval:
0.1227948 0.4588937
sample estimates:
probability of success
0.2666667

That is, if you really get 8 in 30 days with an expectation of 20, the probability that you're seeing is somewhere between 0.123 and 0.458, 95% of the time. The p value you're seeing is very small, so it being 'bad luck' is very, very unlikely.

[Alfred]

Further to witpqs post, I've experienced some quite reduced production as a result of random roll numbers. I've received only 14 Beaufighter VIf throughout the whole of 1943. At a quoted "monthly" rate of 2 I should have received 24 units. IOW I received only 58% of my quoted "monthly" rate.

That is how the cookie crumbles.

Alfred

[hades1001]

I'll upload the image proof when I reached the end of Nov.

[Alfred]

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

ORIGINAL: Alfred

No, I told you it is done on a daily basis. You are not guaranteed to receive each month the quoted "monthly" production. There is no end of month catch up. Each month you might end up with more produced, or less produced, than the quoted "monthly" rate.

Alfred

Yes, but for him to get no production for a week straight he would have to have hit an improbable string of probabilities or he is actually experience a bug which some one might want to look into.

One of the consequences of the randomization of daily production that I have to wonder if the devs are aware of is that a certain plane type can be rendered completely useless by the randomization.

One type of Wildcat recon plane (I think it is the F3FP, but not sure as I am at work and not in fornt of the game) is set to produce only 12 airframes. In my last game the randomization shorted me one plane leaving me with 11 planes which was too few to upgrade a squadron to so the net result of losing one plane in production was actually losing 12 planes since the remaining 11 couldn't be used.

Some plane types and squadrons allow upgrades if even one plane of the new type is available while others preclude an upgrade until the pool has a sufficient number of planes to equal the squadron maximum. I am not knowledgeable enough about the upgrade mechanism to decipher a ruleset that dictates when which case applies.

My experience with the Wilcat recon plane type was that all the squadrons capable of upgrading to that type fell into the "won't upgrade until the pool has sufficent numbers to equal the squadron maximum" category, so the result of a one plane shortage in production was not being able to use the other 11 planes. [:@]

A squadron which is not scheduled to be withdrawn needs only 1 plane in the pool for an upgrade to be manually effected. If the squadron is scheduled to be withdrawn, then you need sufficient planes in the pool to fill out to its maximum TOE in order to effect a manual upgrade.

Alfred

[hades1001]

ORIGINAL: hades1001

I'll upload the image proof when I reached the end of Nov.

The production line in LA is never touched and remains "ON".
Please note that other planes like P40K and P39D are produced at a normal rate.

[Alfred]

Not surprising because they do have a higher "F" rate than the P-38G.

Another factor to take into account is that based on what you have posted to date, you don't know that you actually produced 20 in October. Factories do not automatically switch over on the 1st of the month to a new model. Your November production may well be greater than 8.

Alfred

[hades1001]

Let's wait another week and see.

[herwin]

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Further to witpqs post, I've experienced some quite reduced production as a result of random roll numbers. I've received only 14 Beaufighter VIf throughout the whole of 1943. At a quoted "monthly" rate of 2 I should have received 24 units. IOW I received only 58% of my quoted "monthly" rate.

That is how the cookie crumbles.

Alfred

binom.test(14,365,p=2/30)

Exact binomial test

data: 14 and 365
number of successes = 14, number of trials = 365, p-value = 0.02718
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.06666667
95 percent confidence interval:
0.02112558 0.06351827
sample estimates:
probability of success
0.03835616

That will happen if you have enough aircraft with that build rate.

[HansBolter]

ORIGINAL: Alfred


A squadron which is not scheduled to be withdrawn needs only 1 plane in the pool for an upgrade to be manually effected. If the squadron is scheduled to be withdrawn, then you need sufficient planes in the pool to fill out to its maximum TOE in order to effect a manual upgrade.

Alfred

Thank you for edifying that for me.

I still have to wonder if the devs realize the consequences of having a plane type with a production total exactly equal to the amount necessary for upgrade falling short of that total as a result of production randomization ends up screwing the side out of that plane type altogether.

Perhaps as a counterbalance the production totals ought to be variable as well, such that a daily shortfall might be made up by a totals increase.

[jcjordan]

I am surprised that for an a/c that has such a high rate, he's getting these results. In my game, I've noticed that a/c that have high rates (ie 20+) you normally do get w/in a few a/c of it but those w/ 6 or under rates you may go months w/o a single a/c. It's one of the things I don't like about the game in that there's so many checks to do something that you end up failing to do anything.

[michaelm75au]

Heavy Industry.

Required for on-map production.

18 HI per plane produced.

Section 13.2.2.4 of manual

Only 9 HI in pool - how it is that low for Allies is weird!

[hades1001]

Does this has something to do with Allied Heavy industry points? Or does Allied need HI to produce on-map planes??

[hades1001]

I just checked and for some reason my Heavy industry are all turned off. I never noticed this. Thank you Michaelm. I'll turn on the the HI and see.