Return to Smolensk and Beyond, IdahoNY vs Scar

[IdahoNYer]

While AGB's front from Orel south through Kharkov remained quiet throughout the winter, AGA was the focus of the main Soviet attack for much of the winter. No longer.

Little activity here in the south. Only two Tank Corps are known to be operating south of Kharkov - both near the Sea of Azov in an attempt to encirle the extreme southern portion of the German line - which managed to pull out.

The German line east of the Dniepr Bend remains the strongest part of the entire Russian Front, and the Soviets have moved their offensive elsewhere. Stopping the Soviets east of the Dniepr was the primary German objective, and this looks to have been achieved.

One mud hits, the panzers can pull out to refit and we can look to pull back the infantry towards the Dniepr's "Eastern Rampart" position following spring.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 146; Mar 30, 1944......Snow and the first real sign of mud

With the failed German counterattack, "Fortress Torzuk" falls and its valiant regimental garrison surrenders. 9th Army begins falling back to the west in earnest, anchored at the southern end of the line by Rzhev - another "fortress city".

3rd Pz Armee has the massed Rifle Corps attacks south of Rzhev, and also gradually gives ground.

The major concern right now is two fold:
1. Lack of any serious fortification line west of Rzhev. While the Valdai Hills position behind 16th Army offers some defensive benefits, no such position is behind either 9th Army or 3rd Pz Armee.
2. Most of the infantry all along the front (not just in this area) is in badly need of rest and replacements. Neither of which is likely until mud takes hold.

Will continue to give ground as necessary, while maintaining a continuous front line.

[IdahoNYer]

Soviet pressure against AGC shifts from driving toward Smolensk, to outflanking the Orel positions and the strong fortifications from Orel south.

8th Army is effectively deployed between 4th and 2nd Armies, but it is still relatively week - except for the XXXXI PzKps. 2nd Army is likewise weak west of Orel, except for III PzKps, which establishes a blocking position along some existing fortifcations west of Orel.

This Soviet attack, while "contained" does seriously compromise any thought of holding Orel through the mud. Having Soviets in strength DUE WEST of Orel is just not a good idea for the long term.

4th and 8th Armies will attempt to hold their current positions and keep the Krichev rail line open. 2nd Army will collapse their salient slowly, and establish a new defensive line about 50 miles north of Kursk.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 147; Apr 6, 1944.....Snow mixed with mud in North Soviet zone

Screen shot prior to German moves showing combat.

One last lunge prior to mud against 9th, 3rd Pz and 4th Armies - Soviet attack across a broad front, although primarily with massed Rifle Corps. Rzhev is isolated, but during the German turn, a corridor is established.

Only near Smolensk is there a solid armor based assault - The Soviets finding the infantry korps holding the line between the panzer corps - and drive within 30 miles of Smolensk.

With mud now settling in, I expect the Soviet activity to diminish and a chance to pull the panzers back to refit.

[IdahoNYer]

Near Orel, the Soviets this time attack toward the city from the west! 2xIN Regiments are isolated as the Germans delay, they are not going to be saved. Still, its a relatively small price for containig the Soviet attack.

Orel will have to be abandoned, but maybe I can hold it just a bit longer - as the German turn is mud near Orel, his chance to breakthrough and exploit is severely limited.

Now, why do I want to hold Orel a bit longer? Well, first, the fortifications are pretty robust. Second, it denies the personnel center to the Soviets. And lastly, and probably more important is that if he thinks I'm going to hold it - he's going to position for his initial summer attacks to clear the city, rather than attacking west. So, if I can pull out just before the storm breaks, I might be able to disrupt his preparations a bit. Gain time. Gain time. In the Summer of 1944, gaining time is going to be the major objective across the front.

[gingerbread]

I think you might want to reconsider regarding Orel. When the two IR are cleared, it will be possible to repair the rail lines south- & westward of Bryansk. That means Orel has no importance so it can be left as is by the Soviet. Kursk is still important, but up here it is possible to push towards Gomel.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 148; Apr 13, 1944.....MUD!!!

General Mud arrives across the entire front, bringing Soviet offensive operations to a close for their "Winter Offensive".

Screen shot show the overall situation - red lines indicate Soviet starting positions late Nov 43, as the Soviet Juggernaut began its offensive season. Soviets initially attacked in the north toward Leningrad, then a major attack toward the Dniepr Bend, and finally opening up a massive offensive against AGC.

Overall, I'm satisfied with the German results.

In AGN's area, although the "Volkov Line" was crossed while the Volkov River was frozen Leningrad was NOT taken, which seemed to be the objective of the Soviet attack.

IN AGC's area, the Soviet's made good progress, pushing both 3rd Pz and 4th Army to the bring of collapse. Reinforcements arrived slowly, bu the Soviets were stopped short of Smolensk, and even Orel was held. However, AGC's infantry took horrendous losses, and 8th Army had to be brought down from AGN to occupy the "gap" between 4th and 2nd Armies.

In the south, AGA took the brunt of the attack, initially breaking through 17th Army and racing for the Dniepr Bend. Heavy panzer counter attacks isolated lead Tank Corps and pushed the Soviet spearheads back. Blunting this attack apparently led to the Soviets shifting the attack farther north, into AGC.

[IdahoNYer]

A comparison of the casualties inflicted, and overall forces available after the Winter Offensive blood-letting is interesting.

Compared with late Nov, when the Soviets began thier offensive, German/Soviet force ratios are as follows:

German:

Manpower: -172,169
Arty: - 426
AFV: -571
Air: +26

Soviet:

Manpower: -266,575
Arty: -4127
AFV: +716
Air: +2238

The conclusion to this data is that although the German overall strength is less, Soviet manpower is also way down - the heavy losses inflicted in the Soviet offensives through counterattacks CAN bleed the Soviets down! This is welcome news to the Frontsoldaten! Less welcome is despite the heavy losses in the air and to AFVs, thier numbers have still climbed.

[IdahoNYer]

Probably should have put the losses screen first....

Didn't have a save of the Nov losses (my bad), but did save one from early Jan. This encompasses most of the heavy combat towards the Dniepr Bend and the attack on AGC.

Overall, Soviet losses were very heavy (of course). Germans weren't exactly light, and neither manpower pools adequately replaced losses.

German losses:
Manpower: 443,768
Guns: 15,615
AFV: 3305
Air: 1812

Soviet Losses:
Manpower: 1,008,033
Guns: 22,400
AFV: 6829
Air: 4478

These losses don't reflect the start of the Soviet offensive in Nov-Dec which had a quite a few successful German counter attacks. Once the Soviet Steamroller got moving against AGC, the opportunities for successful counterattacks diminished considerably.

So what's next...?

Pray for more mud to keep the Soviets at bay for a few weeks. Both sides will likely attempt to refit their striking power - which for the Soviets include the Rifle Corps. I'll hold forward as long as I can, then, in May begin pulling back forces towards the "Eastern Rampart" - the Dniepr line. This pull back will be tricky. I don't want to wholescale retreat - I want to delay back with a screening force - make him fight his way forward. Keep panzers in position to counter attack any overly ambitious exploitation. With some luck, it will be Jul-Aug before he's ready to breach the Dniepr Line - and if I can pull back some reasonably intact forces ahead of time, that may be a tough nut to crack.

So, from this point foward, we'll disengage panzers in the front lines, and pull back some infantry to refit. Any reinforcements sent from Germany do not go east of the Dniepr. We'll occupy and reinforce the line near Mogilev-Vitebsk first and foremost as this is the weakest part of the postion, and the most dangerous place for the Soviets to launch their summer offensive - its the shortest route to Berlin!

I think he'll try and carve out the Ukraine first - which is one reason why I don't want to whole-scale pull back to the Dniepr. My bet is he'll attack to liberate Kharkov-Kursk area and push to take or cut off Leningrad first. Then, hammer due west.

We'll see...I've got a few weeks to try and figure it out.

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 151; May 4, 1944.....mud, snow and clear!

Weather looks to be starting to change, time to begin some pull-back. No attacks in the past few weeks of mud. Most of the panzers have had a chance to pull off the line.

Screen shot shows 16th Army pulling back to the Valdai Hills Fort Line - 5 divisions remain in the line, deployed into regiments to man the original positions. This allows the remaining 14 divisions to pull into the new line - or some will be available to head elsewhere.

The decision to hold the old line is fairly simple - its a bargain. Why give up that ground without a fight? Worst case is that he attacks through and forces me back - granted, I may lose some regiments to isolation if he commits a tank corps or two, but he still has to spend the time attacking through it. A rifle division or two is not going to be enough to dislodge a regiment from a level 4 fort. He's going to have to redeploy some forces here to push the screen back - and that will take time and units, which could be better used elsewhere.

[IdahoNYer]

AGC pulls some 2nd Army elements exposed near Orel, but also leaves a rear guard to have the Soviets fight through. This is the only the first stage of a withdrawal here, more in the coming weeks.

The concentration of Soviet Armor across from 8th Army is confirmation that he'll try and bull through 8th Army enroute towards Gomel area and the Dniepr beyond - or turn south to flank AGB to the south.

With the Soviets massing, III PzKps is shifted further west, and two PzKps from 4th Pz Armee are brought up from south of Kharkov. The intent with 4th Pz Armee is to shift it from the right of 6th Army to the left flank of 6th Army or even 2nd Army if the Soviet blow pushes west here.

I'll give ground east of the Dniepr, but I've got to hold him off the river itself for as long as possible - most of the German panzer force is concentrating from Smolensk to Kursk in preparation.

[IdahoNYer]

At the southern end of the German line, 17th Army is re-established and assumes covering the front in the south, tying in with 1st Pz Armee which slides north.

17th Army will hold forward as long as possible, then fall back to prepared positions behind the Dneipr and fortifications south towards the Crimea. Once back in thes positions, it will be augmented by Rumanian forces.

I'm taking some risk here, moving 4xPz Div from 4th Pz Armee north, and leaving only 2xPzKps of 1st Pz Armee to cover from Kharkov south.

[krupp_88mm]

noooo you dont know waht your doing your supposed to hold those pockets to the last man!!! dont you know your history!

Hitler ponies

[IdahoNYer]

Well Krupp, I think you just got your wish....

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 152; May 11, 1944......mud

This is not good. Soviets take advantage of last turn's "mixed" weather which included clear and snow, and conducted a series of limited attacks across the front.

Should have expected something with the weather, but frankly, I was caught flat-footed.

16th and 9th Army takes some push back where the two armies are joined - with the panzers in the rear re-fitting, the Soviets easily push the Germans back. No breakout, nor encirclements, but the 9th Army forward screen is pushed back, and 16th Army will have to fall back to the Valdai Hills position earlier than I'd like.

3rd Pz Armee gets pushed back slightly, but NE of Smolensk, those 10 miles are going to be costly. The Soviets force the Germans off the Dniepr River here - its not much of a major obstacle this far north, but a river is a river. He's now got a straight shot over clear terrain north of Smolensk straight to Vitebsk come summer.

[IdahoNYer]

Here against the Sea of Azov is where it gets ugly...

I took some risk here in the south to reinforce AGB near Bryansk by moving 2xPzKps of 4th Pz Armee north. This meant 1st Pz Armee extending north, and 17th Army moving back into the line. I had pulled 1st Pz Armee's panzers back to refit, so the line, while manned by infantry didn't have any reserves available to respond to a crisis - and the Soviets provided that crisis in spades!

Soviets take on 17th Army again (its starting to get a bad reputation!) with massed Rifle Corps attacks to push the German infantry out of their lvl 2-3 forts. Then come the tank Corps - at least 5 of them - to break the front open. A 30 mile gap forms and 5x IN Divs are trapped against the Sea of Azov.

In the German move, XXXXVIII PzKps moves to block the Soviet advance further west, but with the mud, are in no position to attack and open up a solid corridor. 2 In Divisions will effect a link up with the panzers, but 3 move into the lvl 4 fortification around the port. A port means potential salvation - routing "homeward".

At least that's the plan. This still opens up a major hole in the front - I want the Rumanians to reinforce 17th Army at the Eastern Rampart along the Dniepr, not man it themselves. I'm going to have to bring reinforcements south, something I really didn't want to do. Especially since I'm also losing quite a few formations to man the Atlantic Wall......

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 155; Jun 1, 1944.....clear

Looks like summer might have come early....not a good thing.

May ended with mud across the front, halting all Soviet attacks. 3 German divisions remain trapped against the Sea of Azov, but continue to hold out and in supply.

During the turn, I abandon the Orel Salient, which was held only by a regimental screen of three divisions. This is the first step of withdrawals I hope to pull off before the Soviet Steamroller gets going.

I expect the main Soviet onslaught to batter through AGC, aimed at pushing across the Dniepr, and opening up the Ukraine from the north. Supporting attacks will likely occur across the front, first and foremost to secure Leningrad. Secondary, continued pressure toward the Dniepr Bend and liberating the Crimea from the north.

So, what's the plan?? Not quite a "Sir Robin", but a fighting withdrawal to the Dniepr line - the so called "Eastern Rampart". Lined with primarily level 3 fortifications from the Dniepr Bend up toward Kiev, then a mix of level 2 and 3 forts up toward Velikie Luki. The "Land Bridge" near Vitebsk has two deep fortifications, as does the Dniepr Bend itself. Still no fortification, on the Dneipr or not, will hold up the Soviet Horde indefinately. Cause casualties, yes. Stop them, no.

I've concentrated most of the panzer forces in the Center which will need to slow the Soviets down as they are only 100 miles from the fortifications in some places. If he really pushes hard, I'm not going to stop him. I hope he'll swing south to liberate the Ukraine east of the Dniepr- I can give ground here.

Worst case scenario would be a determined push aimed due west near Velikie Luki aimed toward Riga. If successful, it would completely unhinge the fortifications in the Dniepr, as well as force me to abandon German defenses of Leningrad and leave it to the Finns.

Best case scenario is for him to exploit his tank corps out of supporting range of his infantry corps allowing them to be isolated and destroyed by panzers. Not likely - the Soviets have come a long way in learning how to fight!

[IdahoNYer]

Turn 156; Jun 8, 1944....clear

In concert with the Allied landings in Normandy, the Soviets take advantage of the clear weather to begin their Summer Offensive along the entire Eastern Front.

All things considered, the German defenders did well - 9 of 36 attacks were held. No major breakthroughs take place, and Soviet losses continue to mount.

In Army Group North's area, 18th Army rebuffs attacks toward Leningrad in the "Volkov Line" defensive area. Despite forcing a crossing of the Volkov River while it was frozen, the Soviets have found it tough going against the fortifications and tough terrain SE of Leningrad.

9th Army takes it on the chin and recieves the brunt of the Soviet attacks here - nothing too calamitous, but enough to force the 16th Army defenses back to the Valdai Hills defensive line, which has been fairly well prepared to level 3 forts. 9th Army shifts its LVII PzKps to its southern wing where the Soviet pressure is greatest.

The defensies further west near Veliki Luki are far from prepared, and forces freed up from 16th Army begin moving into those positions to dig, dig, and dig some more.

If Soviet pressure continues against 9th Army due west - as I expect it will - it will compromise 16th Army's Valdai Hills defensive position and force the Army to fall back to the "Eastern Rampart" which is far from complete this far north.

[IdahoNYer]

AGC continues to hold it's line, but Soviet pressure continues. Both 3rd Pz Armee and 4th Armee are forced to attempt to hold as the vaunted "Eastern Rampart" some 100 miles to the west is far from complete here. Some 8 German divisions, freshly arrived from the Fatherland, have reinforced the "Land Bridge" area near Vitebsk and begun to improve positions. The 1st Hungarian Army, with another 8 or so divisions, has taken up postions from Kiev north toward Gomel - also improving positions.

So we have to delay until these positions are better prepared. That means, giving the Soviets an "easier" route of attack rather than straight west - if that is possible. This is southeast, toward Kursk. If he heads toward the Ukraine, I can really trade space for time. Due west toward Vitebsk and Mogilev, there is little space to trade.

The Soviets open up with massed rifle corps assaults against 3rd Pz Armee and 4th Army. The defenses bend, but don't break. 3rd Pz Armee has a number of rested panzer divisions ready in reserve. 4th Army has the very powerfull 3rd SS PzKps due east of Mogilev. 8th Army has the XXXXI PzKps. Two PzKps of the 4th Pz Armee stand ready to commit either due north or northeast. This the best we can do.

The Soviet tank armies appear to head toward the Kursk gambit - three massed stacks of armor bull through the boundary area of 2nd Army and 6th Army. 2nd Army shifts its weak III PzKps to block, and 6th Army begins falling back toward Kursk. The seam between the two armies remains weak, probably the weakest part of the line. Lots of risk here, 6th Army is vulnerable to a penetration to its rear area, but I really can't do much about it just yet. I may have to abandon Kursk shortly....very hastily.

[Peltonx]

Wow nice job holding out.

Great game.